As of Black Friday, the 2017 offseason has been astonishingly quiet. The trade and free agent market seems as though it’s being held up in large part by the situation surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. Once that massive domino falls, it’s possible we’ll see a flurry of free agent activity follow. In the meantime, however, Stanton rumors are a heavy focus of the baseball media cycle, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in an in-depth piece earlier this month, his market is wide and complex. As we approach the weekend, here’s an overview of what we know about the Marlins’ attempt to deal their All-Star outfielder.
He’s the best player available on the market- This may be redundant considering I already mentioned his brand new MVP award, but the subject is well worth its own spotlight. His .281/.376/.631 batting line is other worldly, and his 59 homers paced all of baseball in 2017. While his 6.9 fWAR only tied for fifth among all players in the majors, the rest of the top seven (Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout) won’t be available for teams to acquire in a trade. The top three free agents (Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer) aren’t anywhere near as valuable in terms of expected WAR output as Stanton.
Teams perceive his remaining contract as close to market value- According to these three tweets from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, multiple teams told the Marlins that the remaining 10 years and $295MM left on Stanton’s contract are a pretty good estimate of what he’d earn on the open market, were he a free agent this offseason.
He has a lot of power over his own fate- Not only does Stanton have a full no-trade clause in his contract, but he also has the ability to opt out after the 2020 season, at which point he’d leave 7 years and $218MM on the table in search of a new deal. The opt-out makes trading him even more complicated, as it caps the contract value upside for his would-be new team. Meanwhile, the full no-trade protection gives him enormous leverage in the process. Many teams would love to add Stanton to their lineup, and the Marlins are looking to shed payroll. Ultimately, this means the Fish may not end up being able to accept the best offer, and could have to simply settle for the proposal from the city Stanton wishes to play for most.
The Marlins’ leverage over him is nonzero- While Stanton is a coveted asset and enjoys no-trade protection, he’s made it well-known that he isn’t interested in being around for a rebuild. The slugger’s desire to leave Miami could result in him approving a trade he’s not thrilled about just to play for a contender. On the other hand, it could also result in a tense game of chicken between Stanton and the Marlins to see who will bend first. Although the Marlins have a firm mission to shed payroll, they can do so in other ways; they don’t actually have to trade Stanton at all. And as much as Stanton wants to be traded, he might be willing to hold out for a team of his choice and risk staying put. The case is fascinating.
Some evaluators believe the Marlins’ asking price is unrealistic- While Miami’s asking price isn’t entirely clear, it seems as though they’re looking for a team to pay all (or nearly all) of his salary while including prospects. This has led some to suggest that the Fish need a “reality check” in terms of their asking price. If the contract is indeed roughly market value, then it’s difficult to imagine that a team will give up good prospects for the privilege to pay Stanton his full dollar value over the course of the deal.
He prefers to play near a coast- While this doesn’t seem to be a firm deal breaker, it complicates matters for teams like the Cardinals and Phillies, who have the payroll space and prospect depth to swing a trade for the prolific slugger.
The Cardinals and Giants have made formal offers- The Giants were the first to officially submit a trade proposal, with the Cardinals following suit later that same week. This doesn’t mean the trade discussions are finished; those trades could still be tweaked or even scrapped entirely in favor of starting from scratch. But the fact that there are at least two offers on the table gives the Marlins some options to weigh for the time being. It’s not known what those offers are, however, though we do know that the Cardinals included Sandy Alcantara in their proposal. It’s equally uncertain whether Miami even takes those offers seriously.
As many as eight teams are engaged in talks for him- While only six of those eight teams are thought to be serious pursuers, the fact that so many teams are showing strong interest bodes well for Miami and their power in negotiations. In addition to the Cardinals and Giants mentioned above, we know that the Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox have had some level of dialogue with the Marlins. The Yankees, too, have reportedly done their due diligence, though it doesn’t sound as if they’re actively pursuing Stanton.
Gonna be fun watching Jeter run this organization into ground….
Like it was being run well prior to his arrival …
You can say that again
Did you just reply to your own comment, telling yourself to repeat your comment.
Gigantes was right though
I’m laughing
Out loud?
Like u have a clue!! Where’s your insider info coming from??
Lol this man LA Sam talks out of his behind all the time. He like 143 years old too so his senile comments make sense
How about just outsider information, that they are trading away a likely future hall of famer, to save money because they spent too much money buying the franchise. Rebuilding can be a reasonable move for midling franchise, but you better damn sure be able to tell your fans that you got some good pieces back for it, not just that you save a bunch of money on your bottom line by switching to replacement players.
Insider information here is far more important than outsider information- aka some dude on the interwebs thinking he has any idea of running a pro sports team
here’s a tip on how not to run a franchise, if you don’t have the capital to purchase a team and have to massively cut payroll for no other reason than to pay off your debt, don’t buy the team. It’s bad for baseball, and especially bad for any fans that the Marlins had left. At least he’s not doing this to a real franchise.
But Stanton himself doesn’t want to be part of a rebuild and has said that. He wants to play to win and Miami isn’t near that stage at all.
Yes but he signed a 10 year extension, or 13 year contract, or whatever it is to play in Miami.
They agreed to give him good money. Shut up and play.
The Marlins are trading him because they want to, not because Stanton doesn’t want to play through a rebuild. It doesn’t matter what the player wants. If they really wanted him they would keep him.
Doesn’t a non-trade clause suggest that it DOES matter what the player wants?
Kiwimlb, what I mean is that when a player is unhappy and wants to be traded, it’s not up to him. Shut up and play.
You signed a contract to play here for 10 years. We’re not just going to cave and trade you.
But I see what you’re saying. He is in control of where he goes but not the fact that he goes.
Sam—-always sour grapes with Jeter. No worries-you won’t be invited to his HOF ceremony.
How can someone “run something into the ground” when Loria had pretty much taken the Marlins org. to the Earth’s core. I mean if Jeter keeps “running them into the ground” he’ll essentially be diggin them out of the hole on the other side of the earth. Point being…… he can’t possibly do a worse job than Loria. Stanton is on a bad contract. leave it to homers to say Jeter is “tearing apart this team.” I’m not even a Marlins fan….. I’m not sure any truly exist… nor am I a Yankee/Jeter homer. But still…. give the dude a chance. People are acting like the Marlins were on the cusp of a World Series before Jeter and Co. got there and they are “ruining” everything. If Jeter just gets rid of that monstrosity in the OF in left center field at Marlins Park (not sure what to call it…. other than hideous gaudiness) he already has done more good for that organization than Loria ever did, haha.
You say “Stanton is on a bad contract.” But is it such a bad contract or is it just a bad contract for Miami at the present time?
How Phillies Contend in 2018
By Lee Stone, Author of “Once Upon a Tee Time
They trade 40-man rosters with the Marlins. What do they get? The best OF in baseball, an All Star second baseman, the best young catcher in the game, and a slugging first baseman that is soaring. What does it cost? An affordable $140M payroll, which becomes especially palatable with the seats full for every home game.
In my proposal, Marlins new ownership adds sprinkles and whipped cream as added inducements. Keep Nola to go along with starters Straily and Urena. Keep your closer. Not enough? Here’s $20M to shop for more starting pitching. How do you not contend?
Why for the Marlins? It gives an ambitious, confident, and cash-strapped new owner the ability to build from the ground up. Instant profitability. A young nucleus.
The more you think about this, the more sense it makes. Everyone wins.
Stanton through no fault of his own was unable to lead the Marlins to playoff contention with a supporting cast of Ozuna, Yelich and Realmuto all of whom are better players than their counterparts on the Phillies. It stands to reason that trading for him and absorbing his salary really does nothing to advance the Phillies chances of postseason contention. Rather it limits their flexibility to upgrade the many other positions that need improvement.
Having 3 other players who are better than their counterpart with the Phillies means that there are 4 other starting hitters and pitchers who may be better on the Phillies. A good team isn’t just 4 players and your implication is that the Phillies players will continue to perform as they did in 2017. Some of those players have been replaced.
I’m not sure how Stanton’s contract would limit the Phillies’ chances. Adding Stanton would put the Phillies’ payroll at $50-$60 million, possibly the lowest in the league. Considering they can afford a $175 million payroll they wouldn’t be limited in flexibility.
I think Ohtani will decide then Stanton…could be wrong but they need to decide so I’m not bored to death lol Dodgers might be trying to get Ohtani and if they don’t they know they can easily get Stanton….must be great to be a dodgers fan right now
Besides the WS loss. Oh well, still better than being a Cards fan.
Lol but it is though?
Nah! I don’t think so!
I doubt the dodgers will land Ohtani, every team wants him and most teams have more money they can offer. The dodgers chances of landing him are probably no better than the average team, especially since I doubt they will promise him ABs. I also doubt the dodgers will go hard after Stanton, most likely they will use this year to add a few smaller pieces, maybe a SP and RP, and just try and cut payroll to get below the addition of the second and third tier of luxury tax that begins next year. Remember, next year anything spent above ~230 million is going to be taxed at over 90%.
While trading for Stanton will elevate the Dodgers offense, our need is the bullpen. Stanton wants to be in LA. If the front office can pull off a trade that robs Miami, then do it. I see three options for a Stanton trade: 1) Pederson, two B/C prospects and absorb that gigantic contract for Stanton, 2) Ryu, Pederson and Verdugo for Stanton plus 10-15 million, and 3) Pederson, Verdugo, Alvarez, and Sheffield for Stanton plus 20-25 million. This front office is pretty crafty and could muster a trade that will benefit LA. However, they shown us in the past that they have a certain threshold to not overcompensate on free agent signings and trade acquisitions. Stanton and LA hold all the cards, lets see how they play their hands.
For any team to take on the entire contract including the opt out risk, the Marlins get pretty much nothing. As this article points out the contract is more or less market value and the Marlins don’t have much leverage.
It really doesn’t matter that he’s paid market value. He represents a limited commodity. As reported in this article, teams don’t consider him overpaid. Teams that want a Van Gogh will have to pay for it. They may be reluctant due to the cost, but he appears to be the only Van Gogh on the market. Just because only a few can afford him, does not mean you lower the price to get more bidders, because the LOWERS THE PRICE! As the article states, the Marlins have other choices to accomplish their goals. They don’t have to trade Stanton. They could also extend their deadline for reducing payroll.
It matters, just as the price asked for the Van Gogh matters. Conceivably enough teams could be interested in Stanton to bid up the asking price, but several factors argue against that happening. The first is the opt-out. It creates enormous risk for the team. In short the team is responsible for all the downside of a very longterm commitment, but will reap none of the possible upside. If the out-years of the contract weren’t so many and so pricey it might be different, but they are lengthy and expensive. The other is the no-trade clause. If Stanton has any strong ideas were he might like to end up (and it seems he does), he’s in the driver’s seat. This leaves the Marlins with the single pressure point of refusing to trade him, and that would hardly be a no-consequence decision for them.
The Marlins are handicapped by Stanton’s contract. Sure, they don’t have to trade him, but with rising salary arbitration for players like Ozuna,and Yelich, they kind of have to. They could trade Ozuna and Yelich and pay Stanton but they can’t do both. Additionally, Stanton has a no trade clause and could dictate where to goes. If I were Stanton and the FO is adamant about trading me, I would keep telling them “No” until they trade him to a team he’s want to play for. The Dodgers FO should go after Ozuna or Yelich instead of Stanton. Better prospects return for Miami and an All-Star caliber outfielder for the Dodgers
The Dodgers clearly have the best chance of trading for Stanton, for a whole lot of reasons. Number one is they are financially capable, Number two is the man grew up not ten miles away from Dodger Stadium, so it’s a trade he’d no doubt approve. Number three, the Dodgers are in win-always mode. No waiting for a rebuild there. Four, they have no clear incumbent at his position.
The Dodgers should make the Marlins a pretty much take-it-or-leave-it offer. If this involves the Marlins being responsible for some part of his out-years (an obligation that could conceivably disappear if Stanton opts out), then maybe they get Pederson or Toles. I don’t see how any team could make them a much better offer, at least not a team that Stanton would approve.
I mentioned this previously, but remember that next year there are two more tiers of luxury tax being added. Anything spent over 230 million is going to be taxed at over 90%. If they add Stanton, they will have to spend close to double his salary, at least for one year.
The team won’t get taxed 90% until they go over $237 mil. Also, they never really tried to dump salaries that I’ve heard of. Especially players that served as depth. Agon, Kaz, and McCarthy could be moved . They might combine for $15-20 mil of relief. I believe they would be right around $240 mil if they added Stanton. If they made no signings or limited it to below $10 mil and got rid of McCarthy, Kaz, and Agon they might still not be able to get under $197 million.
True but also the payroll issue potentially gets sort of hairy-scary after 2018 when the Dodgers will likely be faced with paying Kershaw more or seeing him opt out. Still while the tax might be painful it’s still a marginal tax so it’s less important to be under the threshold than simply to not be a lot over it.
Nothing you said changes that Stanton is a fairly priced, limited commodity. Yes, the opt out may have some factor, but as his age goes up, I just don’t see the total dollars going up. If he is at his market value, there will be little incentive to opt out. As we pass the Free Agent class of ’18, there will be a saturation among teams that can afford these contracts. After Machado, Trout, Harper, etc sign, who will be left to afford Stanton? Right now, there is a team that cant wait on their window, and cant trust that one of those elite will choose to sign with them. Stanton will seem like the best option. Absolutely no reason to lower the price.
“Fairly priced” doesn’t translate into “a bargain.” The reason to be cautious as a buyer is the number of years after the opt-out. If he declines or develops chronic injuries, that’s potentially more that $200m in dead money. Very few teams can afford that. The Marlins may have elected to take that huge risk but it’s another thing entirely for another team to assume all of it. You might consider which teams can both afford to take that risk and have a good reason to do so. I’m not sure even the Dodgers can and do, and I think they are clearly in the best position. That Van Gogh might not have as many serious bidders as you might think.
The opt out isn’t a risk, its a benefit.
For the player, you mean.
opt outs are never ever good for the team
Go ahead and sign Stanton the Dodgers will still go home with no World Series ring. Then there payroll will be about 300 million and go home losers.
Ok bud.
I think he might be in a Fish jersey to start the season. Jeter needs to understand he is almost a cap dump because of how much money is tied to him. Is he really gonna just ‘give’ the franchise player away to start his tenure with the team?
They don’t wanna retain and they still want a haul of prospects. I get it’s negotiations but you can’t have your cake and eat it too.
If the Marlins are intent on trading him, it’s way too risky to hold onto him into the season. Injury or even a slow start could tank his value.
Meh, send him to the West Coast.
Takes prospects and a want, the two combined haven’t seriously been present.
Stanton for Ohtani
In other words – nothing new.
Last time I checked Philadelphia is near a coast!
So is St. Louis if you count the Mississippi.
Is also rebuilding, so rip
So are the Giants
They should be, but they aren’t.
Giants been rebuilding since Bonds retired lol
They have won 3 WS since Bond left.. Are you living under a rock?
I’m not a giants fan but they do have 3WS
Check again
The Yankees definitely aren’t trading for Stanton. They can’t shed Ellsbury’s contract and they’re committed to getting under the luxury tax threshold.
Still, fun to think about a lineup with Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez in any order. I️ honestly believe Stanton would accept a trade to NY though.
I think the Yankees could find a taker for Ellsbury at $6-7M/yr. they should be able to trade Gardner without kicking any money in. That would allow them to take on Stanton’s full contract, resign CC, being in Iannetta as a BUC, and get Ohtani.
A package of Clint Frazier, Chance Adams, and Tyler Wade, while taking Stanton’s full salary is better than any other offers I’ve read about so far.
No way any team takes Ellsbury off the Yank’s hands. That’s the Yankee fan’s dream that they’ll find some sucker to take on their team’s mistake. The same reason why the yanks want to be rid of that contract is the same reason why no team should take it. Why would any team be willing to make a 3 year commitment to a guy that has averaged an 89 OPS+ over the last 3 years?
I guess the part about the new team only being responsible for 6-7 million per year for Ellsbury went right over your head? Ellsbury at 3/18 should be moveable. I just hope that Cashman will get on it.
Ellsbury’s contract is 3/$63.5 Million……so you are suggesting that the Yankees eat $45.5 Mil?…..or $15.2 Mil/Year…???
That makes Stanton a $40 Million addition…….LMAO….
I don’t even LIKE the Yankees, and there’s no way I think they would do that…..
Give the Marlins Glebyr Torres along with Frazier, Andujar, Acevedo, and Fleicer Perez I am sure they’ll take Ellsbury contract off your hands in a deal for Stanton.
Real question is would Cashman seriously consider attaching Torres to Ellsbury as a way to get rid of that contract entirely.
Why would you think the Yankees would ever even consider such a ludicrous proposal? Torres, Frazier, Andujar, Acevedo, and Perez just to move Ellsbury and take Stanton at market value? Are you honestly serious about that?
Stanton at market value in that deal? No, figured at least 40-50 mill would be going back to the yankees for the increased prospect haul.
As for the deal. The yankees can’t take on stanton unless they move ellsbury, if they’re intent on staying under the tax line. Nobody and I mean nobody is taking ellbury, even if the yankees eat most the contract, which defeats the purpose.
Only shot yankees have at stanton is if they convince the marlins to take ellsbury’s contract, which will cost the yankees significantly. 21 mill isn’t just going to magically clear itself off the books.
You didn’t mention the 40-50 million in your initial post. Ellsbury should be moveable at 3/18–save 6 million a year and free up a roster spot? That’s good enough for me. At any rate, the Yankees would be foolish to make such a move, and I don’t see them doing that at all.
Not a chance in hell the Yankees give up Fraizer for Stanton, let alone Torres. Move along..
Seriously that is way over paying. Taking on the full Stanton salary means less in prospects.
That proposal completely ignores what the Marlins are trying to do. Useless idea. They HAVE TO shed salary, not offset salary b/c they’re ripe with cash. I can’t speak to the Yankees, but I can with respect to the Marlins. They will be sending very little, if any, money along with Stanton.
Word on the street here in So. Florida is that The Marlins might be willing to pay $40 Million after the Opt-Out (if he declines) if that means that they can get some quality talent in return. Deferring those payouts would give them a chance to re-tool the team and have a more manageable payroll by the time the payments are due. I do think that they will want Stanton to accept the offer that forces them to eat the least amount of his contract……..but they are NOT in control of that…..Stanton Is…!!!
No moron the Yankees are not giving away one one the top prospects in baseball to shed a bad contract. How dumb are you
Apparently smarter then you are. The yankees arent just trading ellsbury and torres to shed the contract. They’re doing it in a deal to bring back stanton. Its not a bronson arroyo type deal where the braves took arroyo and touissant from the dbacks for nothing in return.
Yankees always over evaluating their prospects. Adams isn’t even a top 50 prospect
Ok? So, only top 50 prospects can be traded for Stanton? Frazier, Adams, and Wade for Stanton and no salary relief is a horrible trade for the Yankees, but thanks for playing.
I’m glad Mahatma got on here! I’ve been searching for a comment from a highly paid expert baseball analyst with highly reputable opinions in evaluating and sharing opinion of who over evaluates who…I was starting to wonder how Chance had one of the best AAA season for all starters and are tops in the Yanks organization which helps their status of one of the top 2 farms (probably top now after the Braves fiasco) in all of baseball. There, got all my sarcasm out for the day…
Plus eventually they will have to pay Judge
“281/.376/.631 batting line is other worldly”… The adjectives that are used on this site are head scratchers sometimes. Slugging is sick, but the rest are nice, definitely not “other worldly”.
Right. You’d have to look at Bonds’ numbers from earlier 2000s to start talking about “other worldly”.
don’t forget the word, nonzero that was used.
Completely agree CF
Maybe it was exaggerated, but that kind of average and power are insanely valuable.
Most 40 HR guys are sniffing the Mendoza line and sub .300 OBPs these days. 60 Hr to go along with a plus hit tool, might not be ‘other worldly’ but still very impressive
OK, can we stop calling Stanton a 60 HR hitter? It’s the first year he’s hit over 37 home runs. He averages a home run in every 13.4 at bats. In 600 at bats, that comes out to 45 home runs. Impressive numbers but far from 60 home runs a year.
Indeed. Unless he found a new top gear (it’s always possible, but never likely) his 2017 was more probably an outlier season.
The Cards already have one highly paid under producer in Dexter Fowler – why in the world would they spend huge bucks for another guy who has a career long pattern of averaging under 120 games per season?? They need to look for a player who can give us the offense our lineup lacks and who plays well on defense and who has a history of durability. For the life of me I can’t understand why we’d look any further than Miami’s Marcell Ozuna. He’s young, durable and far cheaper than Stanton plus he’s solid on defense and an iron man who’s averaged over 150 games per season his entire career. The only stud hitter like him is Charlie Blackmon and he’s not available.
It’s not Stanton’s fault he got hit in the face and had to miss several games. Let’s see you try and get out of the way of a 95 mph fastball coming at YOUR head!!
Staton played 145 games that season. He can’t be blamed for that, but the missed time over his career is a legitimate question.
Ok bud.
exactly I wouldn’t pay me $295 million to play baseball either
Ozuna is only cheaper monetarily and some question if his production is sustainable, being he has some very lucky numbers. He’d cost far more in prospects, as would Blackmon. The player you’re looking for is extremely hard to come by and would cost far more in prospects than money than Stanton ever would. You’re talking players like Trout, Arenado, Goldschmidt, etc.. All cost fortunes, and all have some imperfection or another. Stanton doesn’t have a huge game total but its doable, and some issues are pure coincidence and not a player’s doing or normal wear and tear (as tim stated). Stanton would be a great addition, he’s a good enough defender, has the offense, and that star power. I’d be disappointed if they couldn’t land him.
I get it that if a trade were to go down it would be a huge thing, but this daily non-story is getting old. What if it doesn’t even happen??
When did Philly get so far from the coast?
Asbury beach is less than 1.5 hours from CBP lol
They’re just so far from contending. He wants to win now. Not in 2 years. Or 5.
Thats irrelevant to the post you replied to though
I disagree
Pretty much all of the major hitting prospects are ready to go with the exception of Kingery who should be up at some point in ’18. While I’m not expecting a World Series in 2018, we’re certainly a lot closer than five years away from competition.
My expectation is, wild card contention in ’18, legitimate contender in 2019.
Yes, that point needs to be clarified.. What exactly is he looking for? It would seem unusual for a player to just prefer any coast. Sometimes they are looking to be East or West…. but just any coast….?. Does he simply like water? What about the Gulf Coast? Would that count? How about the Great Lakes? Definitely need some clarification.
Stanton’s desire to be on the coast is being being interpreted as literally being at the ocean. When did the Delaware River become the ocean?
I was just going to mention this. I spent my Thanksgiving in Cape May- from Philly, that’s maybe a 90 minute drive, maybe less without traffic.
Dodger Stadium is a 30-45 minute drive from the coast depending on the time of day.
My guess is he wouldn’t be bunking down at the stadium.
East coast beaches that aren’t in Florida don’t cut it for California guys.
He’s gonna be in BOS, NY (Y or M), BOS, LAD or LAA. Possibly Cubs. He wants big time. Those teams all give it. Except maybe Angels but he could pair with Trout.
Tell us something we don’t know.
Other worldly? Stanton 2017 OPS 1.007; Bonds 2004 OPS 1.4622
*1.422
It’s funny because there’s an asterisk…
Bonds was a juicer.
…and so were several hundred other guys that include pitchers that Bonds took deep.
That’s funny there is NO PROOF he did. So take your * and place it were the sun will not shine.
The * was correcting his own number. It wasn’t for the reason you are thinking. Please calm down.
Actually there is. He admitted using the “cream” and the “clear”, just claimed he didn’t know what they were.
Chill.
Roids.
Hyperbole flowing strong in this post.
Actually Philadelphia is only 70 miles from a coast……your point is moot on that one
No offense but as someone who has lived the better part of over fifty years living within 100 miles of the coast I have never met not one person who described themselves as living “on the coast” unless they were actually living with their property on salt water. Even during the years that I lived in towns that touched the ocean I never once heard anyone claim to be living on coast unless they actually did as I described above. I know that Stanton may not be meaning it quite so specifically as that (about a desire to be on the coast) but I think that very few people who themselves live within 100 miles or so of the coast (but not directly on salt water) would use the term as loosely as you imply. Certainly when I lived in Philly I never heard (or thought it myself) that it was on the coast. “On” and “near” are not the same thing.
My interpretation of the “on the coast” thing is that the teams near either coast are the large market teams…primarily (besides the Cubs and Cards)… I don’t think the geography is the issue…so Philadelphia could still be a player.
To answer the title: nothing.
Stanton Notnats
Remember the tweet.
The Marlins could literally restock their outfield by trading Stanton to the Cardinals.
They could deal Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna, and in the Stanton trade alone they could bring back Bader, Sierra, and some pitching in Alcantara and someone like Flaherty or Hudson.
They could also look to add Carson kelly to a Stanton deal as a replacement for Realmuto if they trade him, which they should.
Trading Stanton, Realmuto, Yelich, and Ozuna would bring back immense talent for Jeter and crew to work with on building a contender. They could potentially acquire a whole pitching staff, brand new OF, and whatever else they need.
OMG—you have too much time on your hands in the bullpen, “bringinthe…”.
With a team no win opt out, there is no way that anyone with a brain gives away the farm. In 3 years if Stanton plays like Superman he WILL opt out. On the other hand, if he performs like Clark Kent(or proves fragile) the team will be underwater paying huge sums for the next 7 years.
Time to get real, bud
LOL- the cardinals currently have fowler, pham, piscotty, grichuk, martinez at the mlb level and bader and sierra, bader who made their debut last year. They have a crunch in the OF, which it seems you were completely unaware of sadly.
Trading Bader and Sierra in a stanton deal solves that issue a bit. They will look to make deals elsewhere as well. Alcantara and Flaherty make sense if cash is going back to the cardinals to help with stantons contract.
OR
The marlins could look towards a kelly, alcantara, bader, sierra package for Stanton and cash given Molina isn’t going anywhere and Knitzer increasing his stock through the minors and fits their timeline better.
StL already made an offer for Stanton. Either the Fish FO didn’t like it, or Stanton didn’t want to go to StL, or both. So until/unless StL changes their offer and/or Stanton changes his mind, he’s not going to StL.
It was by all accounts not their final offer
Restructure his contract so he can opt out after 2018 also getting a raise of a guaranteed 25mil for 2018. This way everyone wins. Marlins cut over over 250mil after 2018. Stanton is free to go to any team he wants. We all know the Marlins will never win with him. They wouldn’t win if they had trout, Kershaw, Harper and Kris Bryant.
@kyledowning If the remaining 10 years of Stanton’s contract is at current market value then his potential opt-out maximizes his contract value upside.
#1 – After 30 players production falls with consistency and with it the player’s value. Stanton will be 31 in 2021, the first season after the opt out.
#2 – On his current contract, Stanton will earn $77 million in 2018-2020 for an AAV of $25.67 million.
On his current contract in 2021-2028 Stanton will earn $218 million including the $10 million option buyout for an AAV of $31.14 million.
#3 – According to Fangraphs, Stanton’s projected production varies between 5.3 and 5.4 WAR over the next 3 seasons. Based on the value of a point of WAR in 2017, that would be more than $140 million in value without taking into account salary inflation.
#4 – Stanton is coming off a 6.9 WAR season, A 5.3 WAR in 2018-2020 reflects a 23.2% decline in performance. A steep decline, but very realistic performance floor.
#5 – Stanton is projected to produce 16-20 WAR or $144-$180 million in value from 2021 to the end of his contract.
2018, 2019, and 2020 statistically represent the highest value seasons for Stanton.
His projected 5.3-5.4 WAR each season from 2018-2020 reflects a $60-70 million surplus value.
His projected 16-20 WAR from 2021-2028 reflects a $38-$104 million negative value.
If you are the GM of a team that wants to make a trade for Stanton, you are hoping you are only responsible for those 1st 3 years. The seasons where he is likely to produce a surplus value. The last 7 are where you are likely to lose your shirt in the deal.
No, the opt out doesn’t maximize his contract’s upside, it minimizes it. If Stanton keeps this up the acquiring team will want to have him for the duration of his contract. If he doesn’t keep it up he’s not going to opt out.
1 WAR was worth $4.6 million in 2017. If a team is paying $9 million for 1 WAR they’ll need a payroll over $300 million to put together a playoff team.
The value of a point of WAR is based only on FA signings. It does not include players that are under team control. We won’t know exactly how much it’s was worth for 2017 until all the FA sign.
If the projections for FAs on this site prove to be correct then it will be worth about $10 million. If some like JD Martinez and Hosmer sign for significantly more than this site projects, then it may be as high as $11 million.
Go to Fangraphs to read how it is calculated, but please stop posting inane and obviously incorrect stuff like that.
Inane and obviously incorrect? Seriously?
The cost of a point of WAR on the free agent market could be $9=11 million, but you’re confusing cost and value. I took total payroll in 2017 and divided it by total WAR in 2017. That gives you a precise value of what 1.0 WAR cost this year. If you use any number you’re using an incorrect data.
The Astros won the World Series with 53.8 team WAR. Their opening day payroll was $123 million. They paid only $2.3 million for 1.0 WAR.
It’s important to distinguish cost from value. Because even though 1.0 WAR could cost that much on the free agent market that doesn’t make free agents a good value. You can’t calculate value the way you’re doing it, because any team that pays $8 or $9 million for every point of WAR they’re getting is going to get very little WAR and be a bad team. Yet you seem to think that if Stanton produces 32 WAR for $295 million his team will have gotten a good value.
As a cardinals fan reading about the giants trade the cardinals should look at that and build from it. The trade I puke e outing together at the time would be something like Grichuk/Piscotty, Bader, Wong, Alcantara, Hudson, and two/three low level prospects for Stanton, Gordon, Ziegler that dumps a lot of salary for the marlins. And cardinals get the power bat they need a Wong, Grichuk get the change of scenery they need.
I bet he doesn’t get traded to the Giants or the Cardinals.
IMO I don’t think the Red Soxs should go after him you would blow up the future that the sox are in a good place at if they trade any of the top young proven talent it should be JBJ
Gonna cost more than an overrated Bradley Jr.
Angels?
This guy is literally ruining the hot stove. Thanks 🙁
Don’t Blame Stanton. His 1st choice is still for The Marlins To Build A Winner. He has said that Publicly…….He loves So. Florida.
Blame Jeter & The New Owners, who came out and said “We’re Cutting Payroll Drastically”……because they really couldn’t afford to buy the team in the 1st place.
Blame MLB for allowing this transaction to happen at all. Jorge Mas should have been allowed to buy the team, because he has the wealth to do what was needed.
The Marlins “barely missed the playoffs” in 2017. If they had better pitching, it would have happened (more than likely). New Owners should have come in and signed a couple solid pitchers to contracts (Chatwood & Lynn…???) and traded for another…..and bit the bullet for a few years to see what happened. Oh Well….
Pretty much this.
Has nothing to do with Jeter and crew for not being able to afford to buy the team. Has everything to do with Loria being incompetent. The TV contract is the lowest in baseball, the attendance is in the toilet because he would rather sue season ticket holders, the local advertising is the lowest in baseball, and they have no ballpark naming rights deal. Your ire is misplaced. Loria put the team in this place, not Jeter.
After they sign a new TV deal, there will be no need to lower payroll. For 2018 they are losing $50 million or more if they don’t cut payroll. Even if they get payroll to their goal of $90 million they will still not be profitable unless Jeter is able to miraculously repair the damage Loria caused and increases revenue.
Stanton is too injury prone to give up much on top prospects. And his opt out
I would prefer Ozuna to Cardinals and a power hitting 1B or 3B. Or Carlos Gonzalez on a 1 year deal plus infielder and then re-evaluate next offseason when slugger market has Machado, Harper and possibly Trout since He will have 2 years left and no hope of playoff run without a trade for Angels
Alcantara is an Ace / 1 type pitching prospect. Too much to give up for Stanton without a major salary eat by Marlins
Teams need to shy away from these type of contracts. They are an albatross.
Attn Atkins/Shaipro! The Jays have a two year window left to win, maybe three. Get Rogers to break out the cheque book and take on 100% of Stanton’s contract as well as 100% of Dee Gordon’s contract. This helps both teams greatly. Stanton more than replaces the departed Jose Bautista, and Dee Gordon would give the Jays a lead off hitter, a left handed hitter, stability in the middle infield, as well as SPEED, something the Jays sorely need. The Marlins get the salary relief they need. Send the Marlins Devon Travis, Anthony Alford and a couple of tier two arms from the minors and BOOM! you have yourself a deal.
I can appreciate Fans wanting Big G to come to their Team……But……Why do so many people think “It’s a No Brainer” to go to a Team in Canada? There are several negative factors that come into play……taxes, exchange rate, customs, and climate….to name a few.
In addition…..Stanton is going to choose a place (supposedly) where he can Win A Ring sometime soon. Is Toronto a place where that looks Realistic???
Nobody really knows what he will accept, because he hasn’t publicly set any limitations. He IS from So. California…..and he said he “would like to be on a coast”…..and last I looked, there’s only a handful of teams that are “Near The Coast”, and are “Contenders”.
Will he surprise us? Hopefully we’ll have that answer sooner than later…..
Same old news. Post a story when you actually have news. I guess you can’t or the dorks won’t know what to do
There will never be a better time than now for MIA to trade Stanton and his contract. Get a list of teams he’s willing to play for, see which one will take on all or almost all his contract, and get it done. If all these free agents are waiting for that trade to happen before signing, it’s gonna be a long winter.
What about a three way deal with Miami, Boston and SF?
Yanks will find a way to swoop in and acquire Stanton…just like the Arod maneuver.
I find all the salary/value analysis interesting but doesn’t it really come down to whether a player can help you get to the playoffs and his impact on your overall salary budget? Lets say a team takes on all Stanton’s salary but gets to the playoffs three years in a row and wins a World Series. I would think that would make paying the luxury tax worth it. The big question is your capability to put additional pieces around Stanton to win. If you cannot do that, then it isn’t worth it.
Making it to the WS was worth about $80 million in 2017. A little more if you win. The ALCS or NLCS closer to $40 million.
That would cover his salary then. Still need the pieces around him though. Not sure if the Giants can cover enough holes to win him.
Dodgers should make the deal for Stanton. He probably opts out of his contract, so giving up a top prospect and taking the whole contract isn’t terrible. They get 3yrs/$77 mil of Stanton’s prime 9 times out of 10. Surplus on that is worth Verdugo or Alvarez and some toss ins. If they take McCarthy’s contract maybe some better toss ins.
Stanton has $285M and 10 years left on his deal (with a $10M buyout… in 20-friggin-28). Why…. WHY on earth would anyone voluntarily bog themselves down with that. I don’t care what Stanton just did in this past SINGLE season. That doesn’t mean limit your spending ability for literally the next decade. 2017 was only the 2nd time in his 8 year career he managed to stay healthy enough to play 150+ games. Over the course of those 8 years he’s averaged only 123 games played per season. Sorry, but that ain’t worth a $28.5M AAV cap hit year in and year out. He’s a .268 career hitter with a career OBP around .365 I want to say. And in a typical year he hits about 35 HRs. For Example’s sake. free agent Eric Hosmer has a career .284 BA, .340ish OBP, and has hit 25 HRs in the last two seasons a piece…… in a HR unfriendly park. He’s not going to cost you NEARLY $28.5M AAV on whatever deal he signs and DEFINITELY won’t be signing a decade+ long deal. Point is, Stanton’s offensive production and health concerns aren’t worth the stupid amount he is paid. If he had the pure hitting ability combined with the power like Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt possess AND can play all 6 months of the season….. yeah I can see why teams would go after that. But he’s none of those things. He’s not a gold glove caliber OFer….. he has a VERY difficult time staying healthy…… and he only hits about .265-.270 in a typical year with an OBP in the .350-.360 range,,,,,,, Mark Reynolds hit .267 with a ..352 OBP and hit 30 HRs for the Rockies last year and got paid a whopping $1.5M. Point I am trying to get across is that while Stanton provides very useful offensive production, it’s not like he is among the league’s elite when it comes to the best hitters around. I’d put him more in the Reynolds, Chris Davis, and Adam Dunn-like category than say the Goldschmidt, Trout, Votto, Seager, Bryant, etc. grouping.
I don’t know. It’s not really the $28.5M AAV that makes me shake my head at this deal, but the DECADE length of the deal. You’re just begging to be fired if you take on his contract. And that’s my prediction. Whoever does trade for Stanton IF anyone does, I predict that GM will be fired within 3 years.
Stanton stands to lose almost a full year’s salary if he were to go to the Giants, Angels, or Dodgers vs. St. Louis just in state income tax. If he goes to California and his base salary next year is 25,000,000; his take home is a little under 21.7 million before considering cost of living.
The Cards need to give up on Stanton. I would much rather them go after multiple position and pitching players than handcuff RF for awhile. If you want to give up your farm then go after Yelich and Ozuna. Sign Hosmer, trade for Colome and Ordorizzi and sign Wade Davis. Younger and you fill multiple needs at once. Sure either is a pipe dream but Stanton and some 2nd tier FA signings isnt going to take the Cards to the next level. Keep the prospects, spend money.