MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
For the second time in three years, the Twins made a surprising push for the AL Wild Card. Unlike their 2015 campaign, though, Minnesota made it to the postseason this time around. The 2017 Twins look like a much more believable contender than the ’15 group, so chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine figure to approach this offseason much differently than the 2016-17 offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Phil Hughes, SP/RP: $26.4MM through 2019
- Joe Mauer, 1B: $23MM through 2018
- Jason Castro, C: $16MM through 2019
- Ervin Santana, SP: $14.5MM through 2018 (includes $1MM buyout of 2019 option)
- Brian Dozier, 2B: $9MM through 2018
- ByungHo Park, 1B/DH: $6MM through 2019
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Eduardo Escobar (5.128) – $4.9MM
- Kyle Gibson (4.051) – $5.3MM
- Ehire Adrianza (3.131) – $1.0MM
- Ryan Pressly (3.118) – $1.6MM
- Robbie Grossman (3.060) – $2.4MM
- Trevor May (3.051) – $600K
Free Agents
- Matt Belisle, Chris Gimenez (outrighted, elected FA), Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago, Glen Perkins (option declined)
[Minnesota Twins depth chart | Minnesota Twins payroll outlook]
A lot went right for the 2017 Twins, who surprised baseball with an 85-win season and an American League Wild Card berth. That several top-rated young talents took steps forward this season means that much of the lineup is already set.
Byron Buxton rebounded from an awful start to hit .274/.333/.452 over his final 459 plate appearances. Coupled with elite defense and baserunning, Buxton’s turnaround led to a 5-WAR season by measure of Baseball-Reference and 3.5 WAR by Fangraphs. Miguel Sano homered 28 times in 114 games, though he fouled a ball into his shin in August, resulting in a fracture that all but ended his season. He’s expected to be healthy by Spring Training after November surgery. Meanwhile, 26-year-old Eddie Rosario had a breakout year at the plate with 27 homers, improved K/BB numbers and a strong .290/.328/.507 overall line. Jorge Polanco was one of baseball’s worst hitters in July but erupted with a .316/.377/.553 slash over the final two months (234 PAs).
The Twins also received contributions from veteran hitters that are expected to return. Brian Dozier was again one of the top second basemen in the game, hitting 34 homers and swiping 16 bags with a 124 wRC+. Joe Mauer turned back the clock with a .305/.384/.417 line — good for a 116 wRC+. Robbie Grossman walked at a near 15 percent clip and posted a .361 OBP.
With Sano, Polanco, Dozier and Mauer set to return, the Twins could consider their infield largely set. Eduardo Escobar is on hand as an offensive-minded backup, while Ehire Adrianza can provide excellent defense at any infield spot. However, there’s also room yet to make an addition. With Grossman penciled in as the primary DH, the Twins could conceivably look to shift Sano to that spot on a more regular basis. That’d open up the possibility of signing an infielder for the left side of the diamond (e.g. Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier). Alternatively, the Twins could grab a first baseman like Carlos Santana or a corner bat like Carlos Gonzalez to mix in at DH. Santana would give the Twins two of the game’s better first-base defenders (Mauer rated quite well there in ’17) to rotate between first base and DH.
The other spot the Twins could conceivably add would be in right field. Max Kepler is still just 24 years old (25 in February) and has shown plenty of promise in the Majors, but he’s yet to put it all together. An above-average defender who has shown the ability to hit for power, Kepler has also struggled against left-handed pitching, and he’s yet to hit righties well enough to truly compensate for that deficiency. Young Zack Granite profiles as a quality fourth outfielder, but he’s also a left-handed bat, so perhaps the Twins could pursue a right-handed bat in the Austin Jackson mold to at least provide Kepler with a platoon partner.
Minnesota could also look to add a backup catcher to the fray. Castro provided slightly below-league-average offense (above-average relative to other catchers) and a massive defensive upgrade in Minnesota, so they’re likely content with him as the starter. Minnesota could simply opt to re-sign clubhouse favorite Gimenez or turn to prospect Mitch Garver to fill that role. Names like Chris Iannetta and Rene Rivera are among the right-handed-hitting alternatives that could pair well with the southpaw-swinging Castro. (Castro handled lefties just fine with a .737 OPS in 2017, but he’s historically struggled against same-handed opponents.)
While the position-player side of the equation looks promising and gives the Twins the flexibility to be opportunistic, things aren’t as rosy on the pitching staff. Outside of Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios, the Twins don’t have much in the way of rotation stability heading into 2017. Santana finished second in the Majors in innings pitched and turned in a 3.28 ERA, though secondary metrics were far less optimistic about his performance. At worst, he should be a durable innings-eater capable of posting an ERA in the low 4.00s, but he’s outperformed his peripherals for nearly two full years now and could again turn in a mid-3.00s mark. Berrios solidified himself as a Major Leaguer in ’17, and the Twins will now count on him to take a step forward in 2018. He won’t turn 24 until late May, and he comes with some yet-untapped potential despite a quality 3.89 ERA in 145 2/3 MLB innings this year.
Kyle Gibson figures to return after once again teasing the Twins with a Jekyll and Hyde act. Gibson was one of baseball’s worst starters in the first half of the season, but the former first-rounder was Minnesota’s best pitcher in the second half. In 70 2/3 frames after the break, he turned in a 3.57 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 50.2 percent grounder rate. We’ve seen this roller coaster ride out of Gibson before, but the strong finish likely spared him from a non-tender.
Adalberto Mejia, who showed promise but needs to dramatically improve his efficiency to work deeper into games, is a candidate to grab the fourth spot in the rotation. Minnesota has a pair of top 100 pitching prospects on the cusp of MLB readiness in lefty Stephen Gonsalves and righty Fernando Romero, but both will open the season in Triple-A. Other candidates for the back of the rotation that are currently on the 40-man roster include Aaron Slegers, Felix Jorge and Dietrich Enns. Veteran Phil Hughes is a wild card after undergoing a thoracic outlet syndrome revision surgery this past summer, but he could also work out of the ’pen if he’s healthy enough to contribute.
In short: there’s room to add to the rotation, and that’s perhaps where the greatest level of intrigue sits when looking at the Twins’ offseason. As recently explored at length here at MLBTR, the Twins have an extremely favorable long-term payroll outlook. They’re at about $85MM after arb projections for the 2018 season — some $30MM shy of their franchise-record payroll — but they’re set to see Joe Mauer’s $23MM salary come off the books after 2018. Minnesota has just $24MM guaranteed on the 2019 books and, somewhat incredibly, doesn’t have a single guaranteed dollar committed to the 2020 roster.
The Twins, obviously, aren’t known for pursuing top-tier free agents. But with clubs like the Yankees, Giants, Red Sox and Rangers (among others) all unlikely to commit substantial dollars to starting pitching for various reasons this winter, the Twins could surprise. FanRag’s Jon Heyman has already linked the Twins to the very top levels of the free-agent market, including Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta plus noted second-tier arms Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. It’d still be a shock to see Minnesota commit $25MM+ annually to Darvish or Arrieta, but the club could realistically afford to do so — especially on a more backloaded deal. And, with the White Sox, Tigers and possibly Royals rebuilding within their division — there’s increased motivation to be aggressive and try to win right now.
Nippon Professional Baseball star Shohei Ohtani is seemingly mentioned in all of our Offseason Outlooks, as he’d unequivocally make sense for any team. It’s at least worth noting a recent AP report that indicated the Twins have the third-most money remaining in their international pool to entice Ohtani (behind the Yankees and Rangers). One has to consider Minnesota a long-shot to sway Ohtani to sign, but it’s an avenue they’ll at the very least explore — and with more resources than most of their competitors. Their lack of a firm DH could also allow them to at least offer occasional at-bats to Ohtani there.
As murky as things are in the Twins’ rotation, the bullpen may be even more unsettled. Sidearm righty Trevor Hildenberger was quietly excellent in his rookie season and has firmly entrenched himself in the team’s late-inning mix. Lefty Taylor Rogers turned in a solid sophomore season and will be back. Hard throwing Alan Busenitz posted a 1.99 ERA in 31 2/3 innings, but he didn’t show much of an ability to miss bats despite averaging nearly 96 mph on his heater. He’ll still likely receive another look. Fellow righty Ryan Pressly threw just as hard, missed more bats and racked up grounders while showing passable control — but a proclivity for serving up homers torpedoed his ERA. His combination of whiffs, grounders and solid control should earn him another chance. Tyler Duffey shined early in a multi-inning role but faded as the season wore on.
The Twins will also have hard-throwing righty (and MLBTR contributor) Trevor May coming back from Tommy John surgery. He could factor into either the rotation or the bullpen mix, though it’s not yet certain which role the club envisions. Other ’pen candidates include righty John Curtiss and lefty Gabriel Moya, each of whom posted video-game numbers in the minors and earned a September call-up. J.T. Chargois, who missed most of the season with an elbow issue but has dominated upper-minors hitters, is another option, as are Jake Reed and Nick Burdi (once he returns from Tommy John surgery).
It’s a long list of names that comes with minimal certainty. If the Twins expect to enter the season as contenders, they’ll need to stabilize the late innings. As is the case with regards to the rotation, the Twins have the payroll capacity to spend. Perhaps the notion of committing a four-year deal at more than $10MM annually won’t sit well with the front office, but even if they don’t pursue Wade Davis or Greg Holland (both reasonable on-paper targets), the market is flush with high-quality arms.
Brandon Morrow, Mike Minor, Addison Reed, Juan Nicasio, Bryan Shaw (who Falvey knows well from his Indians days), Jake McGee and old friend Pat Neshek are all among the relievers coming off strong seasons that should command multi-year commitments. Minor, McGee and Tony Watson may be of particular interest, as the Twins currently lack a second lefty to pair with Rogers. (Buddy Boshers was the most common option in 2017, though he often looked overmatched.) Frankly, it’d be a surprise if the Twins didn’t add at least one reliever on a multi-year deal, and it seems quite likely that they’ll be in play for some higher-end arms that could serve as a closer.
As Spring Training draws nearer, the Twins will also have internal questions to address. Namely, Dozier is controlled for just one more season — his age-31 campaign — leaving the front office with the task of deciding whether to lock up a player that has emerged as a clubhouse leader, a fan favorite and one of the better second basemen in all of baseball.
Dozier’s age will likely prevent the Twins from wanting to offer an especially lengthy commitment, but Minnesota should at least explore the possibility of retaining him. Daniel Murphy inked a three-year, $37.5MM deal beginning with his age-31 season, though Dozier’s 2016-17 production vastly outpaces Murphy’s two-year platform for that contract. Justin Turner inked a four-year, $64MM deal beginning with his age-32 season. I’d lean toward Turner as the better comp, but both could be talking points in extension discussions.
Top shortstop prospect Nick Gordon is near MLB-ready and could push Polanco to second base in the event that Dozier departs, but Dozier’s presence both on and off the field would be tough to replace.
The Twins will also have to look hard at whether they’d like to approach Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Polanco or Berrios about long-term deals, though there’s obviously quite a bit less urgency on that front; Sano, Buxton and Rosario won’t even be eligible for arbitration until next winter. Polanco and Berrios are even further out.
It’s an odd feeling to write sentences such as: “The Twins should have money to spend this offseason, and it’d be curious if they didn’t do so in a much more aggressive manner than in recent years.” But, that genuinely seems to be the case for the Twins, whose young core, pristine payroll outlook in 2020 and beyond and presence in a division rife with rebuilding clubs gives them an opportunity to reestablish their presence as an annual contender.
We’ve yet to see Falvey and Levine navigate an offseason in which the team acts as an expected contender, so it’s tough to gauge whether the club will utilize free agency or the trade market more in adding to the 2018 roster. Regardless of their preferred avenue, the 2017-18 offseason should be the most active in recent history for the Twins in terms of player acquisition.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Hopefully they trade Dozier since they’re not going to re-sign him next offseason. Put Polanco at 2B, don’t worry about his average-at-best defense, and let him develop into a slugging 2B like Dan Uggla. And to think they could have gotten Bellinger for Dozier straight up from the Dodgers last offseason, but they asked for more players.
Highly, highly doubt Bellinger was ever on the table. I’m guessing it was JDL only, just like the Forsythe trade.
There is 0 chance they could have got Bellinger. Dodgers were firm on Jose De Leon and another pitcher. We wont know truly how close they came to a deal, but for sure they never would have got Bellinger
There was never any credible report that Bellinger was on the table for Dozier. There were many stating that the Twins asked for Bellinger (who could blame them?) and were quickly rebuffed.
Dozier remained with the Twins exactly because the Dodgers wouldn’t trade Bellinger.
My grandson belongs in LA. Not Minnesota. You got that?
But Minnesota’s lovely! 🙂
I think the offer of record was “can’t-miss” RHP Jose De Leon for Dozier, one for one.
Yeah this guy is a troll, I wouldn’t pay much attention to his comments.
Even if they’re a dark horse for Otani,
It’s more than worth noting, Twins have the third-most International pool.
On the outside, this looks to be a well-run team, and if they miss out on Otani, there are other ways to spend it (— Just don’t trade it)
Also, last year of Joe Maur’s 8 year $184M contract expires next year, 2018. ($23MM) Even if he resigns, won’t be for that. that’s a lot of money coming off.
29 teams are going to miss out on Otani, (and nobody knows what’s in his head) but the Twins have something much more valuable, Steve. And that’s that comes in the form of that precious $3.245M IFA pool money,
Do you think Twins plan utilize that IFA money in the near future? It would make for an interesting write-up!
To this outsider, the future looks bright for this team that lost 100 games, 2 years ago.
That 100 loss year looks like a bit of an outlier now that it was sandwiched between late season wild card contention years. The 2017 team was more or less the same team as 2016.
Obviously I want the big fish, but it’s the Twins so it’s a less than one percent chance of happening.
As far as realistic, I like Chatwood or Lynn and there are several decent RP available. And I’d love the luxury of adding Carlos Santana.
D A R V I S H
I’m officially on the Darvish bandwagon. I really hope the Twins make a serious run at him. It sure would be nice to watch a pitcher with the ability to miss bats. So many years of sub 5 k/9 pitchers…pitch to contact!
I know it would be a huge surprise if the Twins actually signed him, but geez…it’s fun to think about.
The Twins do need to pick up a starter to headline the rotation. But it’s all going to be for naught if they can’t get the system to develop worthwhile starting pitchers of their own. Berrios and Gonsalves simply can’t fail. Or the Twins are going to be in trouble.
If you can’t “buy’ an ace… odd that you don’t go for Greene, Wright, or McKay, dontcha think?
Darvish and Otani??? And they cant trade dozier. with two years left and coming off of a better season there were only able to get an offer for a injury prone starting pitching prospect. Keep him for the year and if he walks get the compensation for him when he signs for 50 mil or extend him he has a 22 WAR in his first 5 full seasons he is and elite second baseman
Dozier is a much better looking player this year compared to last year. He had pretty much the same season as last year, yes a few less HR’s but a higher average and OBP this season and the RBI’s and runs are almost exactly the same. The thing that makes him look so much better this year is that he’s proven that he can do this consistently where all the talk last year was about how his last season was a fluke and that he wasn’t really that good. Now he’s done it for a second straight season and added a Gold Glove, the fact he only has one season left will hurt but if a team thinks (like LA last year) that he could put them over the edge then they could easily offer something better. It’s too bad that Cleveland is in the same division I think they would probably be a great fit otherwise.
if you look at WAR it was his 3rd best season. 2014 WAR was 5.2. 2016 WAR was 6.4 and 2017 WAR was at 4.4.
Where does Byung Ho Park play into their plans? I’d guess they’ll give him a shot at DH.
The future for both him and Vargas are unclear.
I genuinely expect the twins to surprise people this offseason and make a big move.
I hope you are right.
The Twins may not be in the hunt next season. They had some players with break out seasons but, it wasn’t that long ago Oswaldo Arcia was a superstar of the future. Therefore, I think the Twins trade Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana at the deadline. The Twins must develop more pitching and are at least two years away from being an alpha type team.
Nobody who actually watched Oswaldo Arcia thought he was the superstar of the future.
Nobody who understood baseball, anyways.
As JD396 said, whoever called Arcia a future superstar doesn’t know what a superstar is. Trout and Kershaw are superstars.
Arcia couldn’t play defense while the three OFs they have now can. No one strikes out as much as Arcia except Buxton, who may have fixed that problem. It improved greatly during this season. Buxton’s D alone makes him a good player. Arcia had to hit like David Ortiz to be valuable and he didn’t.
This post is sarcasm, right? They have literally been talking about Sano, Buxton and Berrios for years, they still might now pan out but what they did last year was what the were expected to do not some random break out player (looking at you Danny Santana).
I still like the possibility of a Chris archer trade. Rays want him out. He’s shown flashes of being an ace, but playing one the rays in the AL east have netted him two rougher seasons (by twins pitching standards he’d still be near the top of the rotation with those stats).
With the extra defense, less pressure and a chance for playoffs he’d be back in the low 3s for era. A decent prospect like Gordon would be worth it for three years of Archer. It would take something a little extra, but not much if anything.
You are severely underrating Archer. Sure his ERA the last two years has been higher than it should be, but that wasn’t his fault. He’s still a top 10 or top 20 SP in all of baseball. He’s basically on an extremely team friendly contract of 4/26. That’s an insanely low contract for a man of his talents.
Do I want Archer? Badly. I’d be shocked if it took less than 2-3 top 100 prospects, plus maybe another player. I’d expect the Twins to have to give up both Gordon and Lewis plus a random other player or Gordon, Gonsalves, Romero plus someone else. And that second trade actually feels light.
If a pitcher that good and on that team friendly of a deal is only traded for “Gordon and a little extra” then I’d be wondering if all the other teams were hit by an asteroid because that is extremely beatable trade by about 10 other teams at minimum.
Baseball reference has him at 34mm/4 which still isn’t expensive unless you’re the rays. Which is why they’d like to move him in the next two years. They definitely have an arm in the trade, but a move centered around Gordon would make things move. Royce would be an overpay.
And there are a lot of teams calling on archer. He will have a new home in the next year. If not this offseason by the end of the next. He’s not going to cost the farm because it’s well known they want to cut payroll now to spend when their new stadium is up and running (although I doubt they will magically start spending)
Trade proposal:
Archer for
Gordon-Enns-Burdi- $1 million in intl spending
is that trade proposal for real? gordon plus gonsalves and a blankenhorn type prospect plus and something else like int money or mlb ready player would be more realistic
4/26 or 4/34, either way he’s about 100 million dollars underpaid. Royce might be an overpay, but that type of quality is going to be what’s needed to get a top 20 SP. The money and the years of control are going to make Archer a very expensive get. Sale was like 3/38 when he was traded. That extra year is huge, even though Sale is the better pitcher in my opinion. Getting Sale cost two top 30 prospects plus more (I think Kopech was 20s, maybe 35 at most). Archer should cost two top 50s plus more hence my Gordon and Lewis comment and the fact that I thought the other option I gave was light.
Again, the trade you offer is basically blah for a pitcher like Archer. Most teams can beat that, easily. Gordon, good piece. People are calling Enns a DFA candidate. He doesn’t move the needle at all. He’ll be a RP and likely a not great one. Burdi, technically a good add, but always injured. This trade feels like it needs two to three more people added to it. Guys of quality. I don’t think the Twins have the prospects it takes to get an Archer, unless they give up Lewis.
Again, what asteroid hit other MLB teams and also made the Rays lose their minds?
Just because the Rays may want to get out of the Archer contract does not mean they will give him away for peanuts. Teams are rarely that desperate, very rarely. Plus when a team can get multiple offers, which I’m sure they will, it’ll drive the price up.
Every trade you proposed was peanuts. I’d do either one without blinking which goes to show that the Rays would laugh at it. Twins would basically be giving up Gordon for a top 20 SP. Any team would do that in a heartbeat.
You seem to give way to much credit to archers caliber. He is at best a number 2. He’s only an “ace” because he’s on the Rays. You act like there is no risk for a player that has regressed every year albeit nothing extreme. He could easily post 5 + era year with the kind of field the rays have. Strikeouts is all he has ranked in the top ten of pitchers. Also any team that has to overpay to the Rays is getting fleeced based on their recent draft and trade history. They miss the boat on everything. Stop trying to justify what you think would be a fair trade. remember the ownership of the Rays care more about landing a bunch of high ceiling people they can hopefully turn make big league players.
That all being said I f–‘d up and meant to say Enlow not Enns. I don’t even know if twins still have rights to enns lol.
Enlow instead of Enns makes much more sense and is much more realistic.
Chris Archer last two years (qualified starters only):
7th in K percentage (career average of 26. Has been 28 average in the last two years)
39th in BB percentage (walk percentage in line with career). His percentage compared to others is average.
37th in ERA (when you compare to the below FIP and xFIP below…)
11th in FIP (has gone up less than .20 off his career)
8th in xFIP (nearly identical to his career)
7th in swinging strike percentage (this was up over 1 percent compared to his career)
5th in lowest contact percentage (allowed 2 percent less contact in the last two years compared to his career average)
7th in the lowest zone contact (in zone contact was also almost down 2 percent compared to his career average)
His numbers have not regressed from his career average. In four categories he’s improved on his career numbers. I’d kill for every Twins pitcher to have “rough years” like that where most of their numbers fall into the top 10 starting pitchers in baseball.
If Archer is not an ace than I hope your list of aces includes only three people: Kershaw, Sale and Kluber. Some people do have that strict of a definition, which is fine. I’d call Archer an ace though. Not as good as those three, but not everyone can be top dog in all of MLB.
Too many throw around the word ace like a jack is the ace your hand because it’s the high card. I have an idealized vision of and ace and feel not all the teams have one or close. Basically, a shutdown pitcher where you will win every five games and a loss is generally a fluke or not That starters fault. Some throw it around like it’s every teams number one. I love archers composure, but he could take just one more step.
Twins need a strikeout guy like him, but I guess the GM is trying to slow those rumors. Which means he’ll sit on the Rays for two years, they move him when he gets paid $9mil because the owner tells the GM to do it or he’s fired… then the GM will get fired. It’s not Friedman, I doubt few people could make magic like he did with a fraction of every other teams payroll.