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On the heels of their seven-game World Series triumph over the Dodgers, the Astros have finally entered an offseason with the rest of Major League Baseball aspiring to surpass them. It took until the 55th year of the franchise’s existence to win a championship, but the team and its fans might not have to wait much longer to celebrate another title.
Thanks largely to general manager Jeff Luhnow, whom Houston hired in December 2011 and who executed an arduous rebuilding effort to perfection, the Astros have the makings of a club that will contend for more World Series in the near future. And while professional sports teams that win titles often see key players defect in free agency in the ensuing offseason, the Astros are in the luxurious position of having all of their top contributors under control for at least another year. Luhnow won’t face much pressure to make improvements this winter, then, but he’ll nonetheless look to upgrade a roster that finished the regular season with the American’s League’s second-best record (101-61) and third-ranked run differential (plus-196).
Guaranteed Contracts
- Justin Verlander, SP: $40MM through 2019
- Josh Reddick, OF: $39MM through 2020
- Yuli Gurriel, 1B: $30MM through 2020
- Brian McCann, C: $11.5MM through 2018 (club option for 2019)
- Charlie Morton, SP: $7MM through 2018
- Tony Sipp, RP: $6MM through 2018
- Will Harris, RP: $2.8MM through 2018 (club option for 2019)
- Jon Singleton, 1B: $2MM through 2018 (club option for 2019)
Contract Options
- Jose Altuve, 2B: Exercised $6MM club option
- Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL: Exercised $5.125MM club option
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Dallas Keuchel (5.089) – $12.6MM
- Evan Gattis (5.000) – $6.6MM
- Mike Fiers (4.085) – $5.7MM
- Collin McHugh (4.085) – $4.8MM
- George Springer (3.166) – $8.9MM
- Brad Peacock (3.165) – $2.9MM
- Jake Marisnick (3.145) – $2.0MM
- Ken Giles (3.113) – $5.0MM
- Lance McCullers (2.140) – $2.6MM
- Non-tender candidate: Fiers
Free Agents
[Astros Depth Chart; Astros Payroll Information]
As you’d expect, not much went haywire for the Astros during a successful postseason run that saw them upend the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers. One glaring exception was their bullpen, whose struggles forced manager A.J. Hinch into some unconventional maneuverings this fall. Ken Giles, Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrove offered elite-caliber production across a combined 172 1/3 innings during the regular campaign, but they were anything but reliable in the postseason. As a result, Hinch turned to three members of his regular-season rotation – Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock (who functioned solely as a reliever in the playoffs) and Charlie Morton – for multi-inning, win-preserving appearances during the Astros’ series against the Yankees and Dodgers.
Although Giles was one of baseball’s premier closers in 2017, he was dreadful on the sport’s biggest stage, and his Game 4 blowup against LA went down as the last time he took the mound this year. While Giles’ track record indicates he should remain the club’s closer in 2018, it’s worth noting that the Astros zeroed in on a couple other established late-game options – the Orioles’ Zach Britton and then-Tiger Justin Wilson – in advance of this past summer’s trade deadline. The fact that Houston tried to significantly fortify its bullpen even before Giles’ issues cropped up suggests its relief corps may be an area of focus this offseason. MLBTR colleagues Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, Jeff Todd and Jason Martinez expect that to be the case, evidenced by their prediction that the Astros will sign free agent closer Wade Davis to a four-year, $60MM contract.
Davis is one of many proven relievers the Astros might go after in free agency (Greg Holland and Addison Reed are other high-end possibilities), or they could subtract from their rich farm system to make a splash on the trade market by landing someone like Britton (he’s likely to stay put, however), Brad Hand (Padres) or Raisel Iglesias (Reds). Britton, Hand or a free agent such as Jake McGee or Mike Minor would give the Astros a southpaw reliever who’s capable of handling both lefty- and righty-swingers, which is something they currently lack. The Astros’ lone left-handed reliever is Tony Sipp, who has been a bust during his two-year tenure with the club and wasn’t even on its playoff roster. The only lefty in the Astros’ bullpen during the postseason was longtime starter Francisco Liriano, a July trade pickup who made five playoff appearances and is now headed for free agency.
Luke Gregerson and late-season addition Tyler Clippard are the other two 2017 Astros relievers without contracts. Gregerson was third among Astros bullpen options in innings in 2017 (61), but his regular-season output was uncharacteristically mediocre and he was barely a factor in the playoffs (3 2/3 frames). Clippard, meanwhile, failed to pitch his way into Houston’s postseason plans after coming over in an August deal with the White Sox.
Liriano, Gregerson and Clippard may be on the way out, but the Astros still have Giles, Devenski, Musgrove, Will Harris, James Hoyt and Sipp (barring a release or trade) as locks or strong bets for their bullpen next year. Like most of those hurlers, Michael Feliz and Francis Martes had substantial relief roles in 2017. Feliz was somewhat of a disappointment, though, and Martes figures to open 2018 in Triple-A Fresno’s rotation.
Given his experience as a reliever, Peacock may return to the bullpen if the Astros don’t trade Collin McHugh, who has worked exclusively as a starter during his four-year tenure with the club and may slot in behind Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, McCullers and Morton at the outset of next season. Alternatively, the Astros could shift Peacock to the bullpen, trade McHugh, jettison Mike Fiers and use a large portion of their available payroll space on one of the two front-end starters on the open market. Yu Darvish, whom the Astros tormented in the World Series, and Jake Arrieta will easily collect the largest deals among starters this year. The Astros don’t need either of those two, though the idea of adding one of them to an already strong rotation is enticing. Plus, as good as Houston’s starters look on paper, Keuchel, McCullers and Morton have each had their share of injury issues during their careers, and Morton is only under contract for another season.
No matter which pitchers comprise the Astros’ staff in 2018, their hurlers will again have the benefit of working with a group of all-world position players. The foundational trio of AL MVP front-runner Jose Altuve, World Series MVP George Springer and Carlos Correa will be back, as will a supporting cast that consists of budding star Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann and Evan Gattis. That group of nine did nearly all of the damage for an Astros offense that laid waste to the opposition in 2017, topping the majors in position player fWAR (33.0), runs (896), wRC+ (121) and strikeout rate (17.3 percent).
The sole regular who was a weak link for the Astros was potential Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran, who was among the worst designated hitters in the league during a season in which he raked in a pricey $16MM. While Beltran didn’t live up to his deal from a statistical standpoint, Astros management, coaches and players would likely argue that the revered 40-year-old justified the pact behind the scenes. Either way, the impending free agent’s second tenure with the Astros is probably over. As such, finding a new DH figures to be on the agenda for the Astros, whose free agent targets could include two-way Japanese sensation Shohei Otani (who would also beef up Houston’s rotation), Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Logan Morrison, Carlos Gonzalez and Lucas Duda, to name several. Any of those six would add a lefty-capable bat to a lineup whose only left-handed regulars are Reddick, McCann and the switch-hitting Gonzalez. Santana, in particular, would give the Astros yet another hard-to-strike out offensive weapon.
As for Marwin Gonzalez, it’s unclear whether he’ll be the Astros’ regular left fielder, which he was in the playoffs, or revert to a super-utility role next year. It’s also up in the air just what Houston will get from Gonzalez, whose .303/.377/.530 line in 515 regular-season PAs may not be a harbinger of what’s to come. According to Statcast (via Baseball Savant), Gonzalez’s actual weighted on-base average (.387) far outdid his expected wOBA (.320), which suggests that his career season was largely the product of good batted-ball fortune. If the Astros agree with that, and if they allow August acquisition Cameron Maybin to leave in free agency, it could put them in the market for outfield help (though free agency won’t offer many clear solutions).
If Luhnow is in an especially bold mood, he could try to swing a trade for on-the-block Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, who would make the Astros’ offense all the more video game-like. Granted, the $295MM remaining on Stanton’s contract through 2028 – not to mention his right to opt out of the deal after 2020 – may render that idea wholly unrealistic. Teammates Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich would be more pragmatic possibilities for the Astros, but the Marlins reportedly aren’t looking to part with either. The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen, with a year and $14.5MM left on his contract, seems like a more practical target. The 31-year-old would be a solid stopgap for a Houston club with two touted young outfielders, Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher, waiting in the wings.
After constructing a championship-winning roster in 2017, Luhnow could make any number of headline-grabbing transactions this offseason to better the Astros’ chances of repeating next year. However, considering the overwhelming amount of talent in the fold and the paucity of integral free agents set to leave Houston, no one would blame Luhnow for taking a modest approach this winter. In the end, his most important moves may come in the form of extensions for core players such as Altuve, Springer and Keuchel, who each have three or fewer years of team control remaining.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Congratulations Houston, on ending the drought.
“Gonzalez’s actual weighted on-base average (.387) paled in comparison to his expected wOBA (.320)”
I would argue that the opposite is true.
Thanks for the heads up. Fixed it.
I think Fiers gets non-tendered or traded for next to nothing. He’s an inning eater, capable of solid innings, but more than likely will end up with an ERA over 4. Makes sense to me to shed that salary (albeit small) that can be replaced internally for cheaper… that would leave 6 needed to be replaced on the 25 man roster. Marwin moves to first, Fisher and Marisnick platoon in the OF, Yuli moves to DH. Internal options from AAA probably fill that 5th rotation spot (Armentaros, Martes and at some point Forest Whitley). Peacock moves to the pen full time with Musgrove, Devo, Sipp, Giles and Harris. Hoyt, Dorris and FA signing/trade acquisition get that last spot in the bullpen. I think Tyler White, AJ Reed, Tony Kemp or Colin Moran get a spot (or two) on the roster next year and they should be able to play a role or replicate Beltran’s on field production relatively easily… Astros primary issue this offseason is to challenge Giles. If he can’t close in the postseason, he shouldn’t be the closer at all. I just don’t know if any options internally exist, with the exception of Bukakas and perhaps Martes. But those are huge risks for a championship team to take… proud of this team for bringing home the WS. I really thought the Dodgers were going to win game 7.
So the Astros won the World Series with their bats and you’re already going on about the pitching being a problem?
You want to get rid of that stud outfielder on the farm for a reliever? How did that work out for the Cubs?
Cubs couldn’t hit and they went home.
Never said pitching was a problem. I also forgot about McHugh. He’s going to be in the rotation. So Kuechel, Verlander, McCullers, morton and McHugh Starting rotation with Musgrove and peacock being the swing options… I just think Giles struggled enough in the postseason where you can easily question him in that role for 2018. I think this team is built to compete in 2018 no question.
I think the cubs had pitching issues much of 2017. Dodgers were the best team in the NL all year. They deserved to be in the NLCS and eventually WS.
Which stud are you referring to? Fisher or Tucker?
Didn’t that “stud outfielder” wind up in AAA with KC because he wasn’t good enough, while Cubs might not have gotten as far as they did without Davis?
It worked out very well for the Cubs. Soler for Wade Davis. I would love to hear our counter argument
Carlos Santana makes sense.
I don’t think the Astros make a major Free Agent signing. Extensions hopefully, but that’s up to the players.
I could see the Astros keeping Fiers. There’s plenty of negative things to say about his performance, but he never gets hurts. With all the extra work the starters got in the postseason, I think it makes sense to consider Fiers.
I don’t think the Astros will keep Fiers. They have so many internal options that are much more affordable (Martes, Paulino, Musgrove, Peacock, Rodgers). I look for them to try and trade him for a mid-level prospect and, if no takers, non-tender him.
Astros will have the luxury of many potential trade partners in need of Fiers – BAL, SEA, LAA, SD, TEX, and MIA to name a few. Those teams will likely be jaded by the inevitably high price tags on back of the rotation FA SPs with metrics similar to Fiers. His durability will make him especially attractive to the Marlins and Mariners.
Matt Kemp would be an ideal target for the Astros.. He needs to shift to a full time DH position and his bat should play up a bit with the move.. Whichever AL GM that finally makes that trade is going to look smart.. IMO he fits better with the Red Sox but the Astros make a lot of sense as well.. Atlanta will probably let him go for next to nothing and will probably eat a good portion of his contract for a decent prospect in return.. Their rotation is good enough to repeat next year with that lineup backing them up.. There is no need for Darvish/Arrieta taking up payroll when their core players are going to start getting expensive sooner rather than later..
Astros already signed an old OF’er last off-season and he didn’t produce much on the field, so no chance they sign or trade for (I don’t know his contract status) Matt Kemp.
The Braves could give Kemp away as long as Atlanta doesn’t eat his entire salary if it were up to me. His body has betrayed Kemp and he just can’t play the field any longer. He is blocking better options in Atlanta.
With arthritis in both hips and clearly out of shape all year long, it’s a miracle the man is able to get himself to the OF and back 9 times a game. He still has 2 long years left on that contract he signed with LAD way back when (winter 2011).
How does this team expect to produce next season without Tyler clippard?
So other words the whole team is coming back and they can fix their 1 weakness the bullpen with free agents. Astros are at the beginning of their 5 year window of a perennial playoff team. Only fear they will have is if a bunch of injuries happen.
I know it’s just wishful thinking but if the Astros some how got Giancarlo Stanton, that would be insane. Stanton would love the crawford boxes. They got a deep farm system and their scouts have done a good job so far so if they made a trade like that sets the mlb world on fire, that’d be interesting. Free agency does have some solid free agents for Houston to upgrade their bullpen so theoretically they could make a deal for a Stanton=like guy and still fix their weakness. However, like I said, that’s just wishful thinking and they would have to increase the size of their payroll.
I would love a Stanton trade, but only if he waived the opt out.
I don’t expect Luhnow to make many moves, but whatever moves he makes will be to strengthen areas of weakness. Astros payroll commitments, excluding arbitration raises is $99M per Spotrac. If you subtract out what the Yankees are going to pay McCann ($5.5M) and the Tigers are paying Verlander ($8M) (as the $99M includes those dollars), it’s a payroll of around $85M. Arbitration raises will be another $24M add so net payroll as it stands now is around $109M. And that includes $5.5M for Mike Fiers if they let him go to arbitration. I think they will non-tender Fiers and make him a free agent. So that’s down to a $104M payroll. Tony Sipp’s $6M contract is included in that and I believe they will trade him for next to nothing and absorb most of that contract.
So they have $104M tied up, and likely their overall payroll going into 2018 can be equal or greater than it was this year (total payroll $149M for 2017 per Spotrac) given additional revenues.
My prediction is that the Astros will use the entire margin of $45M, and they will make moves such as this:
1. Sign Carlos Gonzalez to a 2-year deal. Year 1 may be $16M guaranteed (essentially replacing the Carlos Beltran contract) with year 2 an option. It’s basically a make good contract, to allow Gonzalez to show that 2017 was just a down year. This gives the Astros additional flexibility in the outfield and also doesn’t put too much pressure on Derek Fisher to develop immediately. Would give them an outfield of Springer, Reddick and CarGo and also allow them to use Marwin Gonzales in the super utility role once again.
2. Sign Wade Davis to a 4 year $60M contract as mentioned in the article. That’s $15M per year.
3. Sign Mike Minor to a $12M per year 3-year deal or Jake McGee for something a bit less.
And still have a couple of million left over in case they need to go get another veteran right handed reliever.
@ Stroh
A tip. Use paragraphs and the space bar.
Wow what an eyesore to read your post
Sounds good to me
I️ like the idea of non-tendering Fiers and saving some cash. Trading McHugh makes a lot of sense but I’d like to see Musgrove take that 5th rotation spot over Peacock. They definitely need a shutdown lefty so signing Minor would be great but why stop there? They have some expandable pieces in the farm that can be used to get Hand. Santana taking over the DH spot sounds good but why not let Gattis DH and get a really good defensive catcher as a backup? The catching tandem of McCann and Gattis just didn’t cut it.
“As you’d expect, not much went haywire for the Astros during a successful postseason run that saw them upend the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers. One glaring exception was their bullpen, whose struggles forced manager A.J. Hinch into some unconventional maneuverings this fall.”
Yeah, not much went wrong outside of a complete failing of an entire position group responsible for 1/3 of every single game.
Let’s not act like everything just happened to turn up sunny for the Astros on the way to the WS. I’d think you could have a strong argument that more went “wrong” for them in the playoffs than every other team that made it to the championship series.
As someone who has lived in Houston my entire life, I’m just so happy to have a championship. I was barely out of diapers when the Rockets won their’s, so this is all new to me. Finally winning one, I can sit back and just enjoy my favorite sport without so much tension. Everyone always talks about repeating after a team wins the big one, but it’s so rare that it happens. Look at the Cubs, everyone thought they were primed to do it but the Dodgers took care of them handedly. I still want us to address the bullpen. It wasn’t terrible throughout the year, but it wasn’t great and that showed up in the playoffs. I think our starting rotation is pretty solid, but bullpen definitely needs some re-tooling. I also wouldn’t mind moving McCullers to the ‘pen. He shined there in the postseason, and even said after game 7 that he “didn’t have much to give” that game. I think he could do very well as a long-relief or even late inning guy in the bullpen. We’ll see what happens, but oh how great it is to be a champion!
“As a result, Hinch turned to three members of his regular-season rotation – Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock (who functioned solely as a reliever in the playoffs)”
Not true. Peacock started game 3 against Boston in the ALDS.