As the 2017-18 offseason gets underway, we’ve heard a lot about teams anticipating the 2018-19 class. Some clubs could even curb current spending to prepare for that group. That’s reasonable enough, given potential franchise-altering free agents like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. In addition to those two abnormally young superstars, the position players include many excellent players who will be 30 or older in 2019: Charlie Blackmon, Josh Donaldson, Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Elvis Andrus, Marwin Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, and A.J. Pollock, for example. While it would be risky for a team to let this group of potential free agents affect their 2017-18 offseason spending, you can at least make a case. However, the list of starting pitchers who project to be eligible for free agency after the 2018 season is less impressive.
Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and after the 2018 season he has the ability to opt out of the two years and $65MM left on his contract with the Dodgers. Kershaw will turn 31 in March of 2019. One way or another, he’s going to get a new monster contract between now and then. It might just be another record-setting extension, as the Dodgers have almost a year to attempt to lock him up. Given that very real possibility, the only team that should take Kershaw into account this winter is the Dodgers.
After Kershaw, the 2018-19 free agent class for starting pitchers doesn’t look all that special. David Price could opt out of his remaining four years and $127MM, but that looks unlikely at present. The lefty will turn 33 next August and was limited to 11 starts this year due to an elbow injury. Aside from Kershaw, the biggest 2018-19 free agent starting pitcher contracts may go to Dallas Keuchel and Drew Pomeranz. They will 31 and 30 years old, respectively, and posted solid 2017 seasons. Still, these aren’t pitchers you plan for a year in advance.
Further down the list, question marks pile up. Garrett Richards could be interesting, but only if his partially torn UCL holds up in 2018. Similarly, perhaps Matt Harvey and Nathan Eovaldi can re-establish themselves next season. Gio Gonzalez and Charlie Morton are quality pitchers who will be 33 and 35 years old, respectively, in 2019, though Morton has indicated that he may retire once his current contract expires. Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ, and Cole Hamels may remain useful pieces a year from now.
While the position players potentially available could make the 2018-19 offseason one for the ages, the starting pitching in this class does not measure up. We actually saw a group far more impressive in the 2015-16 offseason, when Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy, and Scott Kazmir signed for over a billion dollars combined. It’s unclear whether Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta will incite bidding wars this winter, but if they don’t, it won’t be because of the 2018-19 free agent starting pitchers.
I love Keuchel, but over the last two years, he hasn’t put up many innings.
He’s not really a workhorse.
He averaged over 6 innings per start this year. Injuries happen, but when he pitches, he is a work horse
A work horse averages more than 6 innings a start and isn’t a soft thrower.
Chris Sale, who lead the league in IP averaged 6.2 IP per start, Keuchel averaged 6.1 IP per start, so either Keuchel might be injured sometimes, sure, but when hes not, hes either a workhorse, or theres no such thing
So I guess Greg Maddux wasn’t a workhorse because he didn’t throw hard either
Cy Young was a work horse. No such thing as a work horse in today’s game.
Different game then. You can’t really compare certain ages of baseball for instance the deadball era and the steroid era.
Agreed, Maddux was one of the top pitchers of all time! Pitchers have copied his tailing fastball to freeze hitters.
BACK IN MY DAY you just ripped of a tree branch and walked up to home plate
A work horse can be a soft thrower.
Brian Shaw?
Maddux __did__ throw hard and his movement was absolutely wicked.
When Maddux stopped sitting at 92 MPH he stopped being Greg Maddux.
When Maddux posted that 1.56 ERA he was 92 – 94 with insane movement that he controlled perfectly.
Where did you get those stats? Kluber led the league in innings per start at 7 and Sale averaged 6.7. The most recent example of a “workhorse” would be prime Sabathia, Scherzer, Verlander, and pre back injury Kershaw. A player isn’t a workhorse when he’s hit the DL in 3 out of 4 years as a full time starter
An extra out per game adds up to over a complete game per season, Injuries indeed count to whether you’re a workhorse or not. There’s no “but when he’s not injured, he’s a workhorse” excuse. That’s part of being a workhorse. You’re there to take the ball every 5th day and can be counted on to give at least 6-8 innings.
Maddux is the definition of a workhorse. From 1988-2001, he averaged 240IP per season and that includes the strike-shortened seasons of 1994 and 1995. Hell, he started the 2002 on the DL (his ONLY time hitting the DL in his entire career) and still made 34 starts that season.
Maddux was not big time post season pitcher like Smoltz
that’s what Evan gattis does
Keuchel owns the Yankees and I hate him. But I would take his 6 innings in our rotation in a heartbeat! Not a workhorse? Spoken like an Astros fan that just won the World Series.
Sorry but you can’t call a guy that has exceeded 200 innings once and has averaged less than 160 innings the past two years a “work horse.” Excellent pitcher yes but I’d be hesitant to offer him a long-term contract for big money what with his injury history.
Hes thrown 200 innings twice, and he hasn’t thrown because of injuries.. if he isn’t a workhorse, then there are none left in MLB
There are none left in MLB. Managers are pulling starters after 5 and 6 innings now based on analytical data. The workhorse has been effectively eliminated by an over reliance on analytics.
A workhorse should be durable enough to make it through an entire season, and 200 innings is just the standard benchmark…pitching deep into games is great but a workhorse pitches deep into games 30+ times a year
I guess Kershaw isn’t a workhorse either then. Getting hurt happens to everyone
its not an over-reliance on analytical data if the results work out.
Starting pitching has changed, Sandy Koufax threw 300 innings.
Over the last 8 seasons, Kershaw has averaged 207 innings per year. Keuchel has averaged 187 over the last 4 years. 207 is significantly more than 187. You previous statement that if Keuchel isn’t one, then they don’t exist is wrong. Kluber has averaged 219 innings over the last 4 years.
If read the post above he’s said exceeded 200 only twice. Which is correct cause he has one year of 200.0 and 1 with 232.0 other then that he’s never exceeded 170 IP. And also a work horse type goes out there 30+ starts a season. Which he’s only done once..
“Injuries happen, but when he pitches, he is a work horse.”
This literally couldn’t make any less sense. If he can’t stay healthy and pitch 200+ innings every year (or at least close to every year), workhorse is NOT a good descriptor for him.
Ummm Kershaw isn’t a work horse??? I’m a cubs fan and hate the dodgers, and he’s a work horse but since he’s not a super hard thrower that doesn’t make him a work horse?
Astros needs to go head and lock him and verlander up for years to come. And sign atleast two more really really top of the rotation aces and they will be set.
Well…that should be easy….
Yeah great idea.. guarantee you, you’ll be regretting locking up Verlander for more than a extra year if you do.. and when you resign keuchel and 2 more aces, your team will be trash in 3 years because you won’t be able to keep your main core of offensive talent.
Not to mention their pen.. they could really use a better/deeper pen. The cubs learned the hard way this past season. That’s why they failed. But now they’re in the process of fixing it. They now have 5 great relievers.
Starting pitcher contracts are way too expensive. Did Kazmir even play this year? They almost always seem to be a net loss.
Kazmir could have played but the Dodgers made him sit all year. They took the hit without flinching
Cite?
The cost is set by the market and the collectively bargained rules of free agency. Nobody seems to complain when Luis Servino goes 14-6 2.98 and only makes $550,000. Where’s the outcry that he’s being underpaid based on performance?
Aaron Judge made $507,000… biggest bargain in baseball. Just another example that shows there many incredibly underpaid baseball players (as compared to their peers).
That’s why most GMs are moving to trading for young arms rather than signing free agents. Pitching is outlier, this time last year Severino wasn’t even expected to be on the team.
There will never be another workhorse.
Verlander is the last one. Guys like Gibson,Marichal, Seaver, Jenkins, Ryan, etc were always around 250- 300 innings. Today’s players make too much so the are protected for insurance.
Too many elbow and shoulder injuries.
I blame this on overzealous parents and high school coaches who try to teach the kids how to throw curve balls and other pitches while their young. Bones aren’t developed yet
bumgarner until his dirt bike injury this year has been one, So has samardzija – both big innings eaters
for todays standards, Keuchel is a workhorse, thats my point here.
Scherzer ? Bumgartner? Sale?
Add Verlander.
Kluber?
King Felix until 2015.
The late Halliday was workhorse but those guys are gone
An emphasis on being a flamethrower hurts as well. To your point of the curve and kids, a quote from the late Dr. Jobe for those who doubt you. Also a few other words from him on always throwing hard.
“I don’t think throwing the curve puts that much more stress on the arm. I think learning how to throw it does. That’s why Little League kids get in trouble. They want to throw a curve so they spend every afternoon throwing to their dads, trying as hard as they can to get it. Then if they’re good, the coach wants to win. If it’s the playoffs, the same kid might pitch three days in a row.”
“When they’re 18, the bones are softer, the cartilage is softer, they should definitely be limited. Once they’re 21 or so, they’re more fully developed. When they’re younger, they can’t tolerate quite the same trauma.”
“Throwing is good. Throwing really hard can be bad.”
“75 percent effort, that’s when stress transfers from the muscle to the ligament.”
Think you forgot about roy halladay.. swear it felt like every game that dude pitched for like 6 years was 8+ innings
Next offseason will be the year of the bad contract.
Machado doesn’t hit like a $400,000,000 guy. He posted a 107 OPS+ in 2017 with a CAREER .329 on base percentage. That won’t age well at all.
Blackmon and DJ are both products of Coors.
Blackmon’s career splits Home OPS (.972) Away OPS (.740)
LaMahieu’s career splits Home OPS (842) Away OPS (669)
Pollock is a major health risk
Harper is difficult to judge. On one hand, his walk rate will keep his annual OPS up, but he has been much more volatile than many would expect. He’s hit .273/.343/.423 with 13 home runs, follow that up with a .330/.460/.649 line with 42 home runs and follow that up with a .243/.373/.441 line with 29 home runs. Overall, he’s still seems like a lock to provide value, but a 10-year/$400,000,000 contract?
I think blackmon doesn’t get the credit he deserves – one thing to remember about coors players is that they are going to be a different beast when working at lower altitude, maybe his power is park effect but he may surprise you when he is out of the altitude full time in athleticism.
I really don’t think you’re doing Machado justice. He had wRC+ marks of 135 and 130 the two years prior, his BABIP was really depressed this season despite an uptick in hard contact, he’s a spectacular defender, and he’ll have 4-5 prime years at the front end of his deal. If he hits .259/.310/.471 again next season, he may see his earning power depressed somewhat, but I’d take the over on each of those numbers.
“I really don’t think you’re doing Machado justice.””
He’s a “42” Phillies fan.
He won’t give Machado any justice nor will he give any justice to Ohtani.
The Yankees are getting smarter about how they spend their money. If that trend continues, then next year’s FA activity might not be as monumentally stupid.
Most free agents are poor values for a team, the bigger the player the more the team has to eat on the back end. That being said, free agents are an important part of building a winning team, it’s risk reward to the max. Teams that have a specific need that can put them over the top should go after free agents.
Sale and MadBum in 2019-2020 tho
If Kershaw doesn’t sign an extension this winter, pretty much no chance he talks about it during the season, and that pretty much guarantees he becomes a free agent in 2019.
I disagree. Kershaw seems more like a kinda guy that if he’s going to opt out he’ll give the Dodgers a window. The simple fact is unless he has some crazy decline next season, Kershaw is probably a Dodger for a very long time.
I’m curious though, what do you see as a fair extension?
Agreed, I think Kershaw stays with the Dodgers, but they need to win a world series.
If he had a crazy decline next season he wouldn’t opt out of the final two years of his contract. That’s the power of the opt out. Players rarely like to get into contract negotiations during the season and I don’t see Kershaw as being any different in that respect. An offer to extend has to be made in a few months or that window closes.
The game has changed clubs are looking to pull their starters out by the 5 or 6 inning and some clubs are moving towards 4th or 5th.. The days of 8+ inning starters is over for the most part, A workhorse these days will give you about 6. It’s the changes happening in the game. More use of relief pitchers after five innings and much quicker hooks. These clubs are not carrying 7 or 8 bullpen arms just in case.