The offseason is off to a sluggish start, due perhaps to the ongoing trade talks involving Marlins star Giancarlo Stanton and the as-yet unresolved posting situation of Shohei Ohtani. Resolution on both matters may well come before long. In the meantime, we’re left to wonder which dominoes might be first to be knocked over thereafter — or, perhaps, whether some other transactions could jumpstart the action.
One player who we have consistently labeled a clear trade candidate is Ian Kinsler of the Tigers. He’s a quality veteran with one year left on his contract who’s currently employed by an organization that’s clearly rebuilding. And Detroit’s top baseball executive, Al Avila, has hardly made a secret of the club’s interest in taking offers.
With that in mind, it’s worth analyzing his market. Let’s start by sketching the asset under question. Kinsler is set to earn a manageable $11MM salary this year before reaching the open market. Though he’s 35 years of age and hit just .236/.313/.412 last year, Kinsler made plenty of hard contact and was likely somewhat unfortunate to carry a .244 batting average on balls in play. He also produced at a much loftier .288/.348/.484 clip the season prior and has a history of solidly above-average offensive work. Perhaps even more importantly, Kinsler has long rated as a superior defender and has been exceptionally durable, reaching 600 plate appearances every year since 2011.
There are other players available at second base, which will have an impact. On the trade side, Dee Gordon of the Marlins is much younger and comes at a similar annual cost over a three-year term, while the Phillies could be willing to deal the youthful and inexpensive Cesar Hernandez. Neil Walker is the top available free agent, with Howie Kendrick and Brandon Phillips among the other potential alternatives. Still, no other player carries quite the profile of Kinsler, whose reliability and palatable contract hold obvious appeal.
There are a few other considerations that could enter the picture. Per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, via Twitter, at least some organizations have considered acquiring Kinsler with the intention of utilizing him at third base. That’s a bit of a surprise, given that Kinsler is about as entrenched as any player at his usual position and has no more than nominal experience at third as a professional. Even if he can handle the hot corner, the added uncertainty would seem to reduce some of the very features that make Kinsler such an appealing target in the first place. It also may tie into his limited no-trade rights, which allow him to block deals to ten teams (though we don’t know which for the current season). While we don’t know for certain just what considerations will drive Kinsler’s views, it stands to reason that he’d be open to moving to a contending team at this stage.
With all that out of the way … where might Kinsler represent a match?
Angels — The Halos are already rumored to be looking at Kinsler, among other options. The organization has a clear need at second, possesses the payroll space and the competitive desire for this sort of player, and recently dealt for Justin Upton from Detroit. As fits go, this is about as clean as it gets. Of course, every other second baseman or team with one to trade will also be engaged with L.A. GM Billy Eppler, and he’ll likely shop around for value.
Blue Jays — While the Jays are in need up the middle, it’s not obvious from the outside that Kinser would really make the most sense. On the one hand, if Kinsler is willing to move around a bit, he’d look to be a solid match for the club’s stated desire in a utility player that might see near-regular action. On the other, he may or may not embrace that sort of role — which would be of particular relevance if the Jays are on Kinsler’s no-trade list. Indeed, Kinsler has reportedly nixed a move to Toronto previousy. It’s conceivable that the Jays could get creative, perhaps using Devon Travis as the utility-oriented player and installing Kinsler full-time at second, but that’s entering the realm of messy speculation.
Braves — Atanta is one of the organizations that could in theory view Kinsler as an option at third. He’d represent a solid veteran presence, plug a need (if he and the team are comfortable with making that position change), and avoid clogging the future balance sheet or blocking prospect Austin Riley in the future. At the same time, new GM Alex Anthopoulos is just settling in and it’s not yet entirely clear how he’ll proceed this winter. File the Braves under “not inconceivable but not outwardly likely.”
Brewers — There was some rumored interest from Milwaukee in Kinsler at the trade deadline and the Brewers haven’t yet firmed things up at second. There are options on hand, as the club struck a new contract with Eric Sogard and still has Jonathan Villar. And Milwaukee might like the idea of pursuing Neil Walker, who was the player ultimately added over the summer. Generally, though, acquiring Kinsler might allow the Brewers to boost their chances at competition without a huge outlay or long-term commitment, so they seem to be one of the more promising fits.
Giants — Third base is open; as above, then, this is a speculative fit in that regard. San Francisco has reportedly also at least engaged in some thought of trade permutations that might involve current second bagger Joe Panik, though at present it hardly seems likely that he’ll end up moving. Particularly if the team ends up breaking the bank to add Giancarlo Stanton or otherwise makes significant moves toward a rebound, Kinsler could make for a good value that wouldn’t compound the team’s concerns about adding aging veterans on lengthy contracts.
Mets — We’ve seen the Mets connected to Kinsler and the team is definitely weighing its options at second, so this makes immediate sense on paper. New York is believed to be working with some payroll restraints, though, so other moves could foreclose Kinsler as a plausible option. On the other hand, the team may like the idea of gaining a boost without adding too much salary, so it’s also imaginable that it would pursue Kinsler and then try to find cheaper upgrades in its other areas of need. (There are quite a few options in the first base/corner outfield market that the team is also exploring.)
Royals — Whit Merrifield established himself at second, but perhaps he or Kinsler could be options at third. The Royals will be walking a fine line this winter, weighing the risks of a big payroll with the desire to sustain competitiveness and perhaps bring back one or two of its own star free agents. It’s not impossible to imagine Kinsler fitting in if the team manages to land Eric Hosmer and wants to install a solid veteran without tacking onto the future balance sheets, though it’s an awfully tight fit at first glance.
That really represents the field of the most likely suitors, as things stand. Roster changes can always shake things up, of course, and organizations such as the Yankees and Cardinals could in theory end up seeing Kinsler as an option at second or third if they first line up corresponding moves involving existing players. (At least some chatter has suggested those teams are considering infield moves, though it’s exceedingly speculative at present.) Somewhat similarly, the Dodgers reputedly had interest in Kinsler in the past, but they picked up their option over Logan Forsythe and it’s tough to imagine both fitting sensibly on that roster. There’s a match in terms of potential need for some other clubs — the Pirates, Diamondbacks, and Rays, for example — but the payroll limitations at play in those situations make it difficult to imagine without several intervening developments first coming to pass.
All told, then, the clearest matches on paper exist with three organizations. The Angels, Brewers, and Mets could all simply install Kinsler as an everyday option at second without significantly altering other aspects of their roster construction. But other transactions could create new fits, and it’s also far too soon to rule out other clubs getting a bit creative.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
southi
LOL I’ve actually caught flak from a couple of commenters in the past because I theorized that Kinsler could be an out of the box option at third for Atlanta. The truth is though it makes too much sense to not be a viable possibility (even if there isn’t a high chance of it happening).
Travis’ Wood
How does that make any sense? Kinsler is a free agent after the season and the Braves aren’t anywhere near competing….
redsguy44
they could also look to acquire him hope he rebounds and then trade him at the deadline
southi
As noted in the article above the only teams with clear cut needs at second base are the Angels, Jays, and Mets. That is primarily the number one reason that it is possible (if still unlikely) that a team seeking a thirdbaseman might make the best offer.
While it is entirely possible, as someone posted above, that the Braves aren’t true competitors they could still seek to improve their record. As redsguy44 mentioned that it is very possible that Kinsler could elevate his value and then he dealt at the deadline (although none of the secondbasemen dealt last season brought back much at all in return).
bobbleheadguru
What can the Tigers get for Kinsler right now?
I would rather have him bounce back and trade him in July.
As for 3rd base? Why? He is one of the best 2nd baseman defensively. Why would you move him? Move a different guy to 3rd.
Travis’ Wood
Nobody is playing Kinsler at 3rd, that’s just absurd. But it’s not like teams are clamoring for 2B at the deadline… time to move him is now.
sngehl01
2B is a need for many, it’s just not highly sought because so little surplus is out there.
Plus, you know, guys get hurt.
Travis’ Wood
2B is not a need for many, how many big time 2B have been traded at the deadline? I cant think of a single one.
terrymesmer
> how many big time 2B have been traded at the deadline?
Eduardo Núñez
July 26, 2017: Traded by the San Francisco Giants to the Boston Red Sox
Neil Walker
August 12, 2017: Traded by the New York Mets with cash to the Milwaukee Brewers
Brandon Phillips
August 31, 2017: Traded by the Atlanta Braves to the Los Angeles Angels
soggycereal
i’m not disagreeing with you because i read the other guy’s post and scoffed, but the red sox utilized Nunéz as a 3b
southi
Not really any of those qualify as big time secondbasemen with the possible exception of Neil Walker. They also brought back next to nothing in return. Nunez and Phillips both were predominantly thirdbasemen at the time of their deals too, although of course Phillips ended up at second for the Angels.
southi
In Atlanta’s case they don’t want to move uber youngster Ozzie Albies and there is no clear cut favorite to start at third in 2018. They also hope that Austin Riley could be ready as early as September 2018. That means that there is a real need at the position for them.
Overall in the majors there isn’t a ton of need for veteran secondbasemen either. That means it is possible that Atlanta might offer the best deal to Detroit for Kinsler (if they think he can play third and is willing).
As said above it isn’t the most likely scenario, but it definitely possible.
Travis’ Wood
It is not possible. Why would the Braves want to pay Kinsler all that money? The Braves are terrible! Just sign some bum off the scrap heap and give him the job until Riley and others are ready…. Kinsler to Atlanta defies logic.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Tigers have a very good guy at 3rd Jemier Candelario. He will be very good for them.
Jef Leppard
I think you can probably take Toronto off of that list.
cbssports.com/mlb/news/report-ian-kinsler-vetoed-t…
Travis’ Wood
Because he didn’t want to go there 3 years ago? Things change…
Jeff Todd
Good point, thanks. I will add mention.
reflect
95% of the time when a player vetos a trade, it’s not because they don’t want to go there. They just do it for leverage, to try to get extra money or years. That’s the entire purpose of these partial (10 team) no-trade clauses in the first place.
Most likely, Kinsler is 100% fine with playing in Toronto. Of course I don’t know him personally but I do know that these no-trade clauses are very often used in this manner.
angelsfan4life
I hope the Angels avoid Kinsler. I would rather the Angels bring back HK47. Than trade for a guy who doesn’t want to play with the Angels.
Jef Leppard
He might? He and Upton are apparently very good friends.
tigerdoc616
Huge problem with the Angels is that they have very little to offer in return. Their farm system is in way worse shape than the Tigers.
Would rather Avila keep Kinsler if the deals are not that good. Something is not always better than nothing. Getting garbage prospects in return will not improve the team in the future, and Kinsler can help make the Tigers watchable in a rebuilding year. Still have to pay the bills.
Travis’ Wood
Lol Kinsler would not make the Tigers anywhere near watchable. Not trading him is completely inexcusable.
Disco Dave
some of us prefer watching the young guys exceed expectations and fight for slots vs watching the old guys crumble. I for one enjoyed the last 1/4 last season.
ryanw-2
This is a salary dump for a player who will only be on your team for one year, and in his mid-30’s. You don’t need premium prospects. Remember where Justin Upton went?
hk27
Tigers have absolutely no need for Kinsler in the present situation.and every reason to dump his salary for anything. Not to mention that the market for Kinsler should be a bit weak, considering his age and not-so-impressive numbers last year., without mentioning his age.
There is a market for Kinsler precisely b/c he is expected to be cheap. If Det wants anything other than a bucket of used balls for him, they can keep him.
Ejemp2006
Agreed. Dixon Machado looked promising at 2B last year for the Tigers, and he is out of options. The Tigers need to clear as much space as they can on the field and in the payroll expense column. Move Kinsler, get back whatever you can, and let some kids take a shot in the show. Hope you catch lightning in a bottle from somebody who might not come over in a big name prospect trade.
dugdog83
What Dixon machado were you watching? He’s the same guy who had his shot the past few years and couldn’t take advantage. He’s not a pro ball player and you know this.
stymeedone
The Tigers don’t really have a replacement ready, so there is no real need to move him, unless they are getting something useful back. Machado is a better fit replacing Romine as the utility guy. I don’t see him being moved until the deadline. Perhaps needs will change by then. Perhaps he will perform better, increasing his value.
Justink1996
His name is kody eaves who plays 2nd and 3rd and is almost MLB ready he just hit triple a
pseudostats
So far, Avila hasn’t shown much in his trades (too many salary dumps in my view) and the Tigers don’t plan on dropping ticket prices.
You are correct, sports is entertainment, if there is nothing on the team worth watching, people find other ways to spend their money.
reflect
I’d be most interested in reading what Kinsler’s trade value is, and how much it would take for these teams to reel him in.
sidewinder11
Just an idea:
DBacks trade Brandon Drury, Yasmany Tomas, Anthony Banda and cash to the Royals for Scott Alexander, Cheslor Cuthbert and Miguel Almonte
Then DBacks acquire Ian Kinsler, Alex Wilson and cash from the Tigers for prospects (assuming AZ isn’t on his no-trade list).
DBacks move Drury to a team that can play him at his natural position, 3rd base. They get rid of Tomas’ contract by including some cash and their top pitching prospect. Royals could play Moss at 1st and use Tomas as the DH. Alexander is a good back end reliever who won’t cost much because he isn’t as established. Cuthbert can play 3rd against lefties, where Jake Lamb has struggled. Almonte can be used as a reliever or starter and will provide some depth for Arizona.
DBacks then fill the void left by Drury with Kinsler, who has better defense and a better overall track record. $11MM for Kinsler isn’t too steep if AZ can move some Tomas’ contract. Wilson should be able to bounce back and be a decent middle reliever. They would still need to add a catcher, corner outfielder and a cheap reliever but this would be a great start to the offseason for them.
Solaris601
I’m just trying to imagine a KC lineup that includes Tomas, Moss, and Soler. Feast or famine deluxe similar to 1999 when CLE had Jim Thome, Richie Sexson, and Russell Branyan in the same lineup.
KnightOfNi
Any morning when Russell Branyan’s name is mentioned, is a good morning.
davbee
You must be a Diamondbacks fan.
Ejemp2006
Wow, there are quite a few moving parts to make that scenario come to life.
stymeedone
Just “prospects” going the Tigers way. Well thought out.
sidewinder11
It’s too hard to gauge what the asking price is for Kinsler at this point to really put any names out there. The return would be fluid as well depending on how much money (if any) the Tigers are willing to include.
sidewinder11
Since the Tigers are looking for impact bats, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Drury is included as part of the package for Kinsler as well.
fox471 Dave
Geez! Is there any trade possibility that someone won’t connect the Dodgers to? We have a 2nd baseman.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Kinsler is better than Forsythe. You can always upgrade. Al Avila would likely ask for alot
CobiEven
You guys missed your chance. He is yours now.
I predict the same fate for Brand Hand. Not because of Hand’s skill but because of the smaller sizes in relief pitching.
CobiEven
*smaller sample sizes
madmanTX
Trade Kinsler to the Expos.
stymeedone
They are on his no trade list, as are Brooklyn, and the Browns.
GarryHarris
During the 2018 season, things will change; they always do. At this time, Ian Kinsler makes sense for the Mets, Angels and Red Sox. Kinsler has one year remaining on his contract. The Mets and Angels are obvious. There’s no guarantee that Justin Pedroia returns full speed so, using Kinsler at 2B makes sense.
Ian Kinsler is likely not open to play 3B anywhere so take that off the list.
elvis26
I think the cards should trade Wong For kinsler !!!!
dugdog83
It would be hard for Wong to fit in that lineup, I’ve looked at it up and down.
Weston Prince
If the Brewers are a legit option i’m curious who they target in the system. Brett Phillips may be an ideal target for the Tigers, Left handed hitting major league ready player who could troll center field. That being said, im not sure the Brewers have any real interest. They already have Villar and they may prefer resigning Neil Walker rather than trade for another second basemen.