Another day, another slew of rumors pertaining to the game’s top slugger. Reports over the weekend indicated that the Cardinals have submitted a formal offer to the Marlins for Giancarlo Stanton, but that doesn’t mean that there’s any indication a trade involving Stanton is any closer. Here’s the latest on the 2017 home run king…
- Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that the Marlins and Giants have discussed second baseman Joe Panik, right-handed pitching prospect Tyler Beede and outfield prospect Chris Shaw. The Giants have also discussed the possibility of taking Dee Gordon back in the deal, which would make some sense with Panik possibly being of interest to Miami. It’s worth noting that Mish doesn’t specifically state that the two sides have talked about a Panik/Beede/Shaw for Stanton and Gordon package. To the contrary, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets that he hears that is not the framework of a deal being discussed (nor is it close, according to Schulman). It seems, then, that the two sides are likely discussing multiple scenarios and those names have been involved (likely with others) in various permutations. The Giants reportedly made some type of trade proposal on Friday.
- Mish also tweets that the Cardinals are willing to part with hard-throwing right-handed pitching prospect Sandy Alcantara, who was included in the aforementioned formal offer to Miami. Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis of MLB.com rank Alcantara ninth among Cardinals farmhands, noting he sits at 96 mph with a fastball that scrapes triple digits and also has the potential for a pair of average or better secondary offerings. Baseball America rated Alcantara fourth among Cardinals farmhands just two weeks ago (subscription required & recommended for their full scouting report).
- Meanwhile, Schulman tweets that the Marlins haven’t reached the point where they’re asking interested teams for their best and final offers for Stanton, thus indicating that an actual trade involving Stanton is not especially close at this time.
tarheels23
Dodgers need to go all in for stanton
WalkersDayOff
He would be an extremely good fit. Although the Giants taking on Stanton and Dees deal will handicap their payroll for a long time
theroyal19
As much as he’d love to play for the Dodgers being from LA and as much I’d love to see him mash homers over the pavilion, i don’t think the money works right now.
Juelz05
It’s not that the money doesn’t work right now, it doesn’t work when Urias, Seager, Bellinger, Bueller and Taylorare all out of arbitration and we’re paying this massive backloaded contract. 2018 is gonna set the new market going forward, with Kershaws opt out it means our payroll won’t be changing much. This doesn’t talk to the Puig, Pederson, and verdugos, granted One or two of those is probably gone in this deal. If it were just the three year deal the Dodgers make the deal tomorrow, but the 10 years is tough and I don’t think the marlins want to eat any money.
BlueSkyLA
Stanton’s contract isn’t backloaded at all really, it’s just lengthy and expensive and most of it comes after the opt-out year. The risk is enormous for the team. The Marlins will have to retain some of that risk if they hope to get much in return for Stanton. You are right to mention Kershaw’s opt-out as a factor for the Dodgers. It’s the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about.
Juelz05
You’re on drugs…it’s the definition of back loaded! 2018 is the least he’ll be paid at 25million. It never gets cheaper than that just goes up. Average total salary was 25million at 13 years but last two he was paid 9m and 14.5m, now it’s 25, 26, 26, 29, 29, 32, 32, 32, 29, 25, and 25. He was a bargain last year, but unless he’s better than he was last year going forward…he’s no longer a value might be an over spend.
BlueSkyLA
An insult is always a nice way to start a discussion.
Backloaded means he is paid far more in the out years of his contract, and in the more extreme examples of backloading, salary is deferred beyond the end of the contract. In Stanton’s case his pay actually goes down in the final two years. You are also averaging in his arbitration buyout years.
mrnatewalter
First 6 years: $136MM
Second 7: $179M
It’s ‘slightly’ backloaded.
Juelz05
Apologies big sky, but I said backloaded no deferred. Back loaded would mean paid more in his passed prime years. Post steroid era prime years are 28-32, he’ll be paid more than his worth(in a national league park especially). The reason the marlins are looking to move him is his contract is going to increase almost double. Do we want to pay a high strike out, low on base, who’s biggest feature is power which doesn’t age well? I doubt it. Would be nice but if we get him I hope he opts out. That’s our win win
BlueSkyLA
Everyone involved with negotiating a contract, especially a long one, is going to be aware of the current trends in player salary inflation. It’s a huge consideration, and it will be factored in.
You want to see backloading? Try for one example Ted Lilly. A few years ago he signed a three-year deal with the Dodgers. His year three salary was nearly twice what he was paid for his first year. Pure free agent, no arbitration years or any other complications or considerations. That’s classic backloading.
BlueSkyLA
You are including an arbitration buy-out year. Not counting it, his AAV for his first five years is $25M and for the next six it is $27M. That’s a “backload” of 8%, which is less (maybe a lot less) than the rate of player salary inflation over that period.
MahatmaGagne
Marlins need to buy out final three years of Stantons contract…..end of story or else we just stand pat and do what we are doing. We are in good shape regardless of what we do. WIN WIN
liamsfg
No backloaded would mean its SIGNIFICANTLY more expensive in the back end of a contract. The word “loaded” insinuates that its a major difference.
davidries
It’s the dodgers !! The money always works right now as long as it makes them a better team and they don’t allow the Giants to get him. I would lose it if the Giants end up with Stanton. That’s the last thing we need
gocincy
Why? He’s massively expensive and the Dodgers already have a massive payroll.
Solaris601
If Frank McCourt still owned the Dodgers he’d have already made the deal. I’m not saying landing Stanton is the right thing to do, but it’s the Frank McCourt thing to do. Current front office won’t make a move like that without being 100% confident it’s right for the organization today and 5-10 years down the road.
mlb1225
Just wondering, who do you think they’d give up for him? If you ask me, I could see them trading Verdugo, and Alvarez, and some other lower level prospects for Stanton.
norcalblue
The Dodgers make that deal, ONLY, if Marlins also take Agon, Kazmir AND pay down significant amount of Stanton’s contract.
In other words. the Dodgers WILL NOT make a deal for Stanton. Juelz05 lays the reasons out quite well.
outinleftfield
Elite pitching prospect or young MLB player and 2 other good prospects.
Eric F
I think the Dodgers would have to add Joc Pedersen, Verdugo and at least another player in their top 20 prospects to come close to landing him.
Richamamia
It seems to be a good fit. Trade Joc, Baez, Brock Stewart, if the marlins are particularly loaded at the time pawn off McCarthy or Grandal. Take Stanton’s full contract, and pray the Marlins nite.
cardfan2011
Interesting, I would think Flaherty and/or Reyes would be in the proposal as well
timyanks
not with the opt out in stantons contract.
outinleftfield
You are missing the point. The team that trades for Stanton is hoping he does opt out. If he plays so awesome that he thinks he can get more than $208 million over 7 years, then they will have received massive surplus value in the $77 million he is owed for those 3 seasons.
theroyal19
I’d think Reyes would have to be included in any deal for Stanton.
timyanks
read my comment above
Blasting Nonsense
There is no way we include Reyes in any deal for Stanton. Flaherty yes but Reyes is a long term piece for the Cards. The one nice thing about the Cards organization is you know who they value and he is certainly someone they value
outinleftfield
Reyes won’t pitch again until 2019. Partially torn UCL means a 95% plus chance of needing a TJ after they try to rehab it. There is a 1 in 5 chance he never pitches again. Why you would have any problem with trading him is beyond me.
Codeeg
He already had TJ surgery so you clearly don’t even know the situation.
brucewayne
Reyes is not going anywhere!
barkinghumans77
Exactly! He wasn’t the #1 pitching prospect for nothing. I feel like Mo & Co are still very high on Reyes. It’s already been stated he’ll be in the bullpen to start the year then probably start the 2nd half.
Vedder80
Why? He is paid market rate. You don’t get top prospects for the right to pay someone full market rate.
cardfan2011
Well for starters, Miami’s asking price was “shockingly” high. But I’d guess one of them not both.
hojostache
Stanton is currently far outproducing the “market rate”. In 2017 he produced a 7.6 WAR. WAR is valued slightly differently depending on who you ask, though FanGraphs recently pegged 2017 WAR at $10.5m/WAR. 2018 and 2019 WAR are estimated at $11.1 and $11.7 respectively.
Taking Stanton over his last 4 years (2 solid and 2 injury shortened) he’s averaging a hair over 5WAR (20.7 total). per year. He is still outproducing those numbers and is easily worth his contract if he opts out. The issue is if he gets injured again and is on the decline for the rest of his contract. He still could be close to covering it given the inflated spending that’s happened in the last few years and that will happen in next year’s Machado/Harper Bonanza.
Vedder80
He is worth what he is being paid, but there is little excess value over it. Thus you do not get a top prospect in exchange for the right to pay market rate.
outinleftfield
Surplus value is based on WAR. He will be paid $25 million in 2018 and 2019. If he repeats 2017’s production, he will have provided more than double that in value. That is the definition of surplus value.
Steve Adams
They very well might be. There’s no mention of Alcantara headlining the offer — just that he is included in it.
cardfan2011
True. Thanks for replying Steve!
RedFeather
I bet its a package similar to this: Weaver, Alcantara, Grichuk, and maybe Diaz. Im willing to bet the Cardinals are working a trade that would send good prospect and also eat some of that contract.
outinleftfield
That would be a good start to a package. Take out Grichuk, because I am not sure that the Marlins are looking for an OF that is not very good. Replace him with Bader or O’Neill.
Dave 32
I feel like Stanton’s gonna stay in Miami until his opt-out. The Marlins are going to expect too many prospects or not having to pay to ship his giant contract out and will figure it’s better just to keep him and ship out everyone else instead and wait. The teams he wants to play for don’t have the prospects and won’t pay full price right now, the Cardinals sure aren’t paying his whole salary. I’d much rather gague the market after Harper’s deal happens and figure out the teams who have the money to burn then instead of being stuck somewhere unfavorable right now.
calikid13
Better to lose Sandy Alcantara than Alex Reyes.
antsmith7
The Dodgers make the most sense for everyone. They have the prospects, the depth, the payroll, and need that big hitter. Plus Stanton would approve the deal in seconds. All the Dodgers have to do is make the offer and he’s theirs.
theroyal19
But the payroll doesn’t really work. Could they take on the contract? Of course. Does it make sense with all of the arbitration raises and other potential long term contracts that’ll be necessary 2018-2020? Not really.
Coast1
Since Friedman arrived, the Dodgers haven’t given any outside player they’ve brought in more than $48 million and haven’t given any internal player more than $80 million. This front office is very careful about making long term commitments and it cost them Greinke. The Dodgers would have no problem with the yearly value of the contract but they’ll balk at paying Stanton that far out.
BlueSkyLA
The opt-out is the killer. Other teams won’t want to assume all of the risk the Marlins took on with that deal.
outinleftfield
Quite the opposite.
#1 – teams know players decline once they hit 30.
#2 – if Stanton opts out it means he had such incredible seasons that he feels he can get more than $208 million over 7 seasons.
#3 – that means the team got great surplus value for the $77 million they paid over those 3 seasons and now they don’t have to pay for the years in decline.
Every team that is looking to trade for Stanton is hoping he does opt out after 3 seasons. No prospects are going to provide the surplus value that Stanton would have if he plays well enough to opt out.
MahatmaGagne
I think it will end up being a three team deal with plenty of prospects going to the Marlins
MahatmaGagne
I think the only way he goes to SF is if they sweeten the deal with the PTBNL (#2 pick in this years draft) Plus Beede and the other fodder for Stanton and Dee’s full contracts
tim815
There’s no reason for the Marlins to trade Stanton today.
The Cardinals have 40 Man concerns, which come to roost tonight.
The Marlins might poach a Rule 5 pick from StL, so no need to hurry anything before tonight.
Vedder80
The Cardinals aren’t losing anyone worth while to the Rule 5.
GoCards11
I’m not sure Patrick Wisdom is the guy Miami is waiting on to transform their franchise…
teufelshunde4
Esp since the last Cards 3b that Marlins got was the HOFer Zach Cox. uk the guy Samson touted as a 30 hr 100 rbi guy… Did he ever get a cup of coffee?
stretch123
Alcantara is a good start for Miami. Hopefully we can get a guy like Bader or O’neil back too as a part of the package.
CompanyAssassin
Doubtful they’d relinquish O’Neill and Bader, but they’d probably add Grichuk who is basically O’Neill.
sandman12
I see a one year of Bryce Harper for ten years of Stanton deal happening between Nats and Fish. Stanton is a more realistic and reasonable option than Harp, who will not be likely to sign with Nats.. Miami flips Harper for a prospect return – which would be significant. Washington keeps a slugger in RF, Miami clears the full contract, and the Dodgers overpay for a year of Harp with a surprising package.
thegreatcerealfamine
Phone call from the Marlins FO…Giancarlo how’s your Holidays going..
Stanton-Just alright I keep hearing all these crazy rumors about the Cardinals,Red Sox,and lately of all teams the Giants. What’s really going on?
Miami FO-well the Red Sox have offered JBJ,Groome,Swihart,and are willing to take 80% of your contract.
Stanton-I’m not interested in playing in front of that media,fans,and that organization always seems to be disfunctional. So that would be a hard pass!
Miami FO-Then we have the Cardinals offer..
Stanton-let me stop you right ther. NA
Miami FO-last is the offer from the Giants.
Stanton-interesting what is it?
Miami FO-One top prospect and they are willing to take on 100% of your contract.
Stanton-The Giants seem to be really old and don’t really have a great farm. Plus if they’re paying all my contract it doesn’t seem like they’ll be able to add payroll. Tell you what I’ll think on the Giants but probably not. Please call me when the Dodgers or Angels get in the mix. Talk at you guys later…
Miami FO-OK Giancarlo we’ll stay in touch. Until then have a great holidays…
Coast1
If this is the way the Marlins do it they’re incompetent. Here’s how they should do it:
Hill: We have a deal in place with St. Louis.
Stanton: I’d rather go to San Francisco.
Hill: Sure, but we have a deal in place with St. Louis.
Stanton: I’m not sure about St. Louis.
Hill: Are you going to invoke your no trade clause?
Stanton: Yes.
Hill: Got it. Have a good Thanksgiving. We’ll catch up next week.
thestevilempire
One huge flaw in your humorous conversation — Why would Miami have to tell Stanton what they’re getting for him? It doesn’t matter to Stanton what the return is on him, that only matters to the Marlins front office. All Stanton has to figure out is whether to waive his trade clause. lol
thegreatcerealfamine
It matters to Stanton to your humorous reply that…
Ballplayers are business men and want to know every aspect of the transaction…
To waive his NTC Stanton most definitely would want to KNOW what shape the acquiring club would be left in..loFL
EndinStealth
Yeah keep telling yourself that
thegreatcerealfamine
Telling myself what exactly,that players don’t care or they’re naive?
Balk
If the Giants give up Panik, Shaw, and Beede, and take on a big chunk of his payroll, I see Miami getting what they want. The Giants will just trade out a Belt, or Pence/span to cut payroll and look for more help at third or possibly a left fielder.
Coast1
No one will take Span or Pence unless the Giants pay most of the contract and the point would be for the other team to pay it. They might get another team to take all of Belt’s deal but the other team would probably be sending someone making $5-$10 million in the deal. If the Giants do this they’re over the luxury tax line for the 4th year in a row and pay a 50% tax. If they go $30 million over they lose 10 spots with their first round choice.
Good luck.
Balk
I don’t think they have to get anything back for a belt trade, they could just free up payroll, that would give them about 50 mill to play with to shop around, if I’m thinking there payroll is where it’s at
gilgunderson
I expect they would try to trade Samardzija, as well.
pustule bosey
the money isn’t the issue when unloading the salary, it is the salary on the books towards the tax-
arc89
Pence has very little trade value unless giants eat half of his contract. Belt is over paid for the production he provides so he is another bad contract.
sacball
how is Belt overpaid for 4.3 WAR at $6.2 million in 2016 and 3.0 WAR at $4 million in 2017?
Antitoxidote
Belt gets paid $17.2 million in 2018. How much WAR will he get next year?
Paul_25
Trade Belt needs to go. Thanks for helping win championships but it’s time. Should have traded him last year.
outinleftfield
3 WAR was worth $24.75 million in 2016. It will certainly be worth more in 2018.
MahatmaGagne
Giants give up Panik, Shaw, Beede and PTBNL (#2 pick in this years draft)
MahatmaGagne
Hmmm seems like MLB doesn’t allow for draftees to being traded as PTBNL (6 month length) anymore, that sucks. But can be traded after the WS. Anyway I guess my proposal is out unless some kind of back deal is agreed upon during the Stanton trade
floridapinstripes
That Giants offer is horrible. lol They better add Arroyo and Ramos or it’ll never happen.
Alcantara isn’t much of a headliner consider he hasn’t had any success outside of being a reliever so far.
Balk
How can you say that’s a horrible offer? They’re getting a gold glove Panik, and two very good prospects, and not to mention the relief of Stanton’s payroll! On top they’re moving Gordon along with it, two fish with one stone!!
floridapinstripes
lol @ very good prospects.
Shaw won’t play 1st with Bour there and he would probably be the slowest LF’er in baseball along with JD Martinez.
Panik is a good player but it’s better they get prospects.
if you drop Panik and add the prospects I suggested it’ll more likely work
Balk
No one knows how a prospect will actually perform until he gets the opportunity, so laughing at Shaw, or Beede is humorous!! But I would agree with you on panik, would love to keep him on the staff. I’m sure this is just a rough draft, but out of all the teams mentioned, I can definitely see Stanton waiving to the Giants above any teams mentioned right now that has offers on the table. And for the front office that’s huge!
OCTraveler
Dodgers give Verdugo, Urias & Ravin for Stanton – also ok if you swap out or add Hernandez or Thompson to the mix
–
Chris Sale Amateur Tailor
no way the dodgers consider that lol.
MahatmaGagne
Ravin is with the Braves now
gmenfan
Giants front office should be shown the door if this comes to fruition. Not as an indictment of Stanton’s worth, but rather the implications of both losing those three pieces AND absorbing significant salary on the club’s immediate future.
STLShadows
Seeing the Giants offer of Panik, Beede, and Shaw for Stanton and not to mention Dee Gordon as well is interesting because that’s not a ton of value prospect wise heading to Miami but that’s a lot of the payroll the Marlins are losing. Now the Cardinals should have no problem topping that a deal like Grichuk and Flaherty or Alcantara and another lower prospect should get them Stanton and Ziegler. The only issue is will Stanton Veto a trade to Saint Louis. It’s interesting because if I’m Stanton I would pick the Cardinals over the Giants any day, they are younger and have a chance to contend beyond 2018. But how determined is Stanton to play on the west coast is the real question.
Balk
I definitely agree with that
brucewayne
Except for Ziegler! He’s 38
brucewayne
and overpaid!
hojostache
Stanton would be stuck in the Midwest. There is little to no chance that he’d OK that on any level. Location matters to players, even if they keep their main home in their preferred location. Just ask MIN, MIL, or even TOR how hard it is to attract free agents.
thestevilempire
Just my personal observation as a baseball historian and seeing numerous rebuilds over many years as a fan. It always seems the difference between a successful rebuild and an unsuccessful one is in the way the rebuilding is done. If I were the Marlins, I would ask teams for a good catching prospect, a good starting pitching prospect, and a good prospect reliever. Oh course, a lot of teams can’t offer that but those that can and that are willing to part ways then the Marlins should be listening.
If they can’t get that then keep building up the middle with a SS, 2B, or CF with solid defense and upside hitting. Just my opinion though….
strostro
like the Cardinals. They can offer Alcantara, Carson Kelly, and Hudson. I don’t see them getting Flaherty or Reyes.
joemoes
Dream lineups are jokes And overrared we are trying to get under payroll to pursue either Harper or machado in 2019
screwball8
Sounds like you should stick to mlb the show if you want that line up for any team. Guess you pitching would be Kershaw, verlander, severino, darvish?
Wainofan
Seems like Cards best offer will prob be alcantara, Diaz, grichuk and maybe O’Neill or bader. Alcantara, O’Neill and bader hurts. A lot. Diaz and grichuk are filler with both being young, cheap and possible lots of upside to new team but expendable to cards. Should be enough to get Stanton if cards are willing to take on most of his salary. And if he waives his no trade clause, two giant “IF’s”
thestevilempire
An interesting observation is that the Cardinals are expected to add Oscar Mercado, Tyler O’Neil, and Austin Gomber to the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 deadline. It could mean A.) That they are being protected because the Cardinals are afraid to lose them in Rule 5, B.) or they could be protecting potential trade assets!
GoCards11
It has been the plan for a while to add these guys. They most certainly would have been selected in the Rule 5.
Eric F
I think the Dodgers would have to add Joc Pedersen, Verdugo and at least another player in their top 20 prospects to come close to landing him.
kaido24
Regardless of where he lands (if anywhere), I wish he would just be traded already.
Eric F
I still think the Yankees will offer Gleyber Torres and a package of Nolan Martinez and Luis Cessa and don’t be surprised if Betances is involved in this trade of not another to replace prospects lost in the trade. Let’s face it if the Yankees get Otani which the look like they will the Stanton to NY trade is off. But the Yankees could offer a number of top prospects because they are stacked in their minor league system.
thestevilempire
The Yankees said that they are trimming payroll because they are tired of paying the luxury tax. There’s no better time than now to get their payroll under control while they have a good, young, affordable nucleus. It would be very strange if they backed off on that. Besides, they shouldn’t make the move. They have fantastic pieces for the future.
yankees25
Torres is going to be a longtime Yankee baring bust status
yanks02026
Not a chance the yankees trade Torres for stanton unless the marlins decided to pick up 90% of stanton remaining money
hojostache
Thank Yankees have turned down a bunch of teams who asked for Torres. I’m not a huge fan of his, but the Yankees seem to love him. Their front office is vastly improved, so I don’t expect them to change course from getting younger and leaner. Stanton has a TON of talent, but he doesn’t fit their current model. They want to get under the lux tax penalty, so acquiring him would require quite a bit of payroll gymnastics to make that still happen.
As for Otani…ugh. I know you are likely right, it just sucks. -The rest of MLB
Paul_25
Giants need to try and keep Shaw so he can play 1B and then gives the Giants room to trade belt. Toss in Hunterstickland and some other prospects in stead of Shaw.
yanks02026
Yankees should start their offer at Clint Frazier and Dellin Betances and some low level minor leaguers. Marlins could flip Dellin for a good haul of prospects also
vinscully16
Still the Dodgers wait. I find it difficult to believe the Dodgers are as disinterested as they appear.
MahatmaGagne
I think this is the big move THIS FO needs to make and what we all have been waiting for
Solaris601
Stanton greatly improves any lineup, but that contract is so insane that even if he produces 55 HR & 140 RBI each year for the next 3 years the front office of his destination team will still privately pray that he opts out.
MahatmaGagne
With the Dodgers lineup of great AB’s and high OBP, Stanton would put up huge numbers. Our offense as a whole will all put up bigger numbers.
What is the record for RBI’s in a season?
tealmarlin
The Giants offer is a joke. I know Stanton’s contractnis big but cmon, Stanton aaand also Dee Gordon for those 3 only? Also take Jeter, the Stadium and a thousand croquetas.
mrnatewalter
If the Marlins don’t add any cash and don’t take on a big contract in return, that leaves the Giants with $330+MM in salary they are taking on.
Honestly, for that much, and no salary coming back, I think the Giants would be offering too much. (Besides, we know that this isn’t the actual offer, just a bunch of names that have been thrown into the mix.)
gilgunderson
That was *not* the offer. Those were merely players discussed as part of potential trade package, not an actual trade package.
Jean Matrac
Even if that was an offer you have it wrong. It isn’t Stanton and Gordon for those 3, it’s Stanton for those 3 with the Giants taking Gordon off their hands. Gordon’s contract becomes expensive. He’s owed almost $39m over the next 3 years with the buyout of his option. With the increase in what he’s owed he has no surplus value. The Marlins want to get their payroll down to $90m. Getting Stanton and Gordon off the books is their priority and is a big part of accomplishing that.
tealmarlin
Dee Gordon is a quality first bat. 39M over 3 years is nothing for his talent. Theres a lot of players earning way more and doing nothing.
SheltonMatthews
So, if Miami does include some money in the deal, say for example they pay $5M/year, what happens if Stanton decides to opt-out? Say the Giants land him, and the Marlins toss in $50M total at $5M/season, if he opted out and chose to remain with the Giants (a la A-Rod opting out and staying with the Yankees) the team would lose out on the extra money Miami owed them right? I’m not saying they will include money, I’m not saying it will make business sense for him to opt-out, but that could be interesting and save Miami some cash down the road on accident. I think the Rangers didn’t have to pay the Yankees any extra for A-Rod once he opted out because it voided the original contract, but I can’t remember. Just an interesting thought on the whole thing.
BlueSkyLA
Depends on the structure of the trade. The Marlins could agree to be responsible a portion of his salary after the opt-out year. In fact this seems like just about the only way they could hope to move his contract and get much back in return. If Stanton opted out, they’d be off the hook.
nicketz
I do not see Stanton opting out. We are in the era now where peak is 28-32 and honestly point peak is likely 28. I think its very likely we just saw Stanton’s career year.
He will be 31 and likely in decline, in 2020. Who will be tripping over themselves to sign him to a massive deal? I realize it only takes 1 GM to go nuts but still. I think teams are only getting wiser to the fact that giving massive deals to guys on the wrong side of 30 is not a winning proposition
BlueSkyLA
The era we should be talking about is 2021 and beyond.
nicketz
Do you think ‘peak’ will go up or down? I only see the game getting younger.
BlueSkyLA
Since when has it gotten younger? If anything athletes are conditioning themselves better now, and fewer injuries are career ending. No peak, just a continued increase in player salaries, unless the revenues generated by the game decline. I don’t see any sign of that, do you?
nicketz
i look at it this way:
After 2020, stanton will have 7 years 208M guaranteed left on his deal. There is no way he’s getting MORE than that if he opts out. i just can’t imagine it.
Jean Matrac
A lot of people couldn’t imagine a 31-year old Greinke opting out either. Pitchers are an even bigger risk than position players, and yet Greinke did opt out, was able to cash in big time.
BlueSkyLA
Exactly. With every new mammoth contract the general reaction is “who would have imagined any team would pay that much to a ballplayer?”
Time to stop being shocked.
brownbomber
i could see a 3 way deal with the marlins, cards, and giants
gmenfan
The Giants get Stanton on odd days, Cards get him on evens ? Vice versa ?
brownbomber
Dont think that would work but there are some players changing places that make sense. (panik, gordon, wong, grichuk, belt, young pitching and somebody else, oh yeah stanton)
brownbomber
Cueto
gmenfan
Seems like the Marlins need to come back to earth on this a little. Stanton is a tremendous player, but the Marlins are somewhat over a barrel.
They’ve made it clear that they need to shed his payroll. He’s made it clear that he wants out. His contract is huge and contains a no trade clause. And he has a full no trade.
old ranger
After the Pujols debacle why would any team do a 10 yr contract with any player? Especially a backloaded contract. He was in his prime year age span when he signed with the Angels and not long thereafter he quickly began to physically deteriorate.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Bold prediction: Jurickson Profar won’t be traded. Stanton will be traded, but it will not be to the Giants or Cardinals.