With rumors continuing to swirl around 2017 NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton, Craig Edwards of Fangraphs took a close look at the value of the Marlins outfielder’s opt-out clause, and how it might suppress his trade value. It’s well-known by now that after the 2020 season, Stanton will have the power to opt out of the remaining seven years and $218MM left on his contract to pursue a new deal. Edwards examines scenarios in which Stanton ages well, normally and poorly, estimating his contract’s potential surplus (or dearth of) value in each instance based on projected WAR output. The obvious conclusion is that Stanton’s opt-out clause negatively impacts his trade value. He would be highly likely to opt out if he ages well or even normally, limiting the value he’d provide to his new team in each case. However, if he ages poorly, he’d most likely opt into the remaining seven years on the contract; in such a case he’d provide negative surplus value over the life of the ten years with his new team. The piece uses a series of charts to make a case. It’s a fascinating read from beginning to end, shedding light on the unique risk teams face in deciding upon the prospect value they’re willing to give up for a player who gets to choose whether to be with them for three years or for an entire decade.
More opinion pieces on Stanton on a slow Thanksgiving afternoon…
- Earlier this month, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs also wrote about Stanton, making the case that teams should be pushing hard to acquire the slugger. Sarris delves into a number of pros: he’s young, he’s not injury prone, he’s capable of incredible offensive output during his prime and his contract could potentially provide $100MM in surplus value if he ages well. The latter point is particularly interesting; Sarris makes the case that part of Stanton’s skill set lies in his plate discipline. Although there’s some swing and miss in the Marlins slugger’s game, he walks a lot and doesn’t often swing at pitches outside of the strike zone. Perhaps the most compelling part of Sarris’ case is the fact that Stanton is available at age 28, which is increasingly rare in an era where many of baseball’s superstars don’t become available to acquire while in their twenties.
- Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his contract, which is an even bigger roadblock for the Marlins than his opt-out clause. Buster Olney of ESPN (insider subscription required and recommended) writes that Stanton should take full advantage of this leverage. The Marlins have made it well-known that they want to cut payroll, and trading Stanton is the most obvious way to do that. Meanwhile, a wide variety of teams will want his potential 60-homer power if he comes at their reasonable price. Due to these factors, Stanton has all the power in negotiations, prompting Olney to express that the NL MVP ought to hold out for a trade to whatever team for whom he wishes to play. “Stanton is in no way obligated to the Marlins or their new ownership to solve their debt crisis for them,” Olney writes. “If they bring a proposal to him in the next week or two and Stanton has any reservations about playing for a team he’s not prepared to wholly embrace, he should say no.”
Ully
Could you imagine if Stanton and Ontani ended up being one teams offseason pickups?
Paul_25
Could see the Giants doing that. Get Stanton help lure Otani to come pitch 2-3 in rotation and let him play some 1B and LF. When he is able Giants will most likely platoon at those positions anyway. Trade belt for some prospects or a CF. Bum Cueto and Otani good rotation. Can have HR derby between Bum and Otani during pitchers BP.
mattg-5
More like you wish the Giants would do that.
thegreatcerealfamine
Yea Ohtani and Stanton want to go to a perennial fourth place team…
CoryM
Not sure perennial 4th place. That have won 3 WS in the past 7 years. One bad year doesn’t constitute perennial status
Koodle
Perennial?
thegreatcerealfamine
Should have used destined to be a perennial fourth place team with the shape they’re in.
camdenyards46
This is such an ignorant comment. They were perennially second behind the Dodgers before the rise of the Dbacks and Rockies this year. They have the most World Series in the 2010s, 3 our of 7.
kbarr888
What’s happened with the Giants in the last 7 years is what is commonly known as “History”.
The History of the Giants franchise is well-known.
“Prediction” is the word we use for what will probably happen in the future
Absolutely no one in their right mind would predict that the Giants will win 3 of the next 7 World Series Championships……. even IF Stanton agreed to waive his no-trade Clause to go there…. and the Giants were somehow able to sign Ohtani (seriously doutful)…….
Coast1
Ignorant implies a lack of knowledge. The Giants were perennially second. Unfortunately, they have a bunch of leftovers from that era that have gotten old and have declined considerably. For every player in his 30’s who bounces back there are 3-4 others who decline further. They have no young regulars and they don’t have talented minor leaguers on the way. If they add salary they go into the luxury tax, so they won’t add much.
That’s a combination for a team to be at the bottom of the division for several years.
kbarr888
Spot On Coast1……
thegreatcerealfamine
That is not last year and going forward now is it…
WalkersDayOff
Giants are not getting Ohtani lol
bastros88
that doesn’t matter, we are talking about this year coming up. the Giants will not make the postseason with this team
sfg415sfc
I had tons of Giants gear from the 80’s & 90’s. I had to donte some of it to make room for WS Championship gear from 10,12,14. Little problems you don’t think about until your team rattles off multiple championships.
Airstud69
2 years and they are projected for last place in 2018!!!
JKB 2
@CoryM
So they won 3 times in 7 years. Whats your point? That was yesterday so to speak. They have not won for the past 3 seasons now … and counting.
So you think Stanton and Ohtani want to come because hey they won 3 times years ago with a different team … a team crumbling now …. dream on!
JKB 2
@camdenyards46
Talk about ignorant comments yours takes the cake. Keep clinging to you 3 past winnings seasons. That does not change the facts buddy. They are NOW perrenial losers. Deal with it. Stop living in ancient history and calling others ignorant. Hilarious
JKB 2
@sfg415sfc
Do you have a point? Enjoy your OLD Giants WS gear from the past. Nothing wrong with that.
But it does not change the reality that they stink now and are old crumbling team with no minor league system with a bleak future so hang on to that WS gear!
But good news for you!!
Since they suck now with no short term future you will not have to worry about having that problem again … you know about clearing out the gear for all the new WS gear that is NOT in the future. Good for you!
brat922
We still have 1989 Earthquake and Humm Baby tees! Ain’t donating any. I have a big section of at least a dozen or more shirts. And several jackets! #neveroutofstyle #comingbacksoon
brat922
One season of mega injuries plus Cueto missing most of ST and several deaths that hit the Giants family hard does not constitute a perineal loser. Stay tuned. We are going to make good moves here for new players and come back strong in 2018. #believen
sanfranb27
They have 7 players over 30 years old on the 40 man roster. What is considered a “young regular” on a Major League Baseball roster
elscorchot
I really thought you were calling Cueto a bum there, for a second.
bearcat6
The way it was written suggests just that. A comma is missing after Bum!
bearcat6
But, I knew what was meant!
Paul_25
I am just a fan. My dream scenario would be Stanton and Ohtani.
All you haters out their Giants always have had a horrible farm system. No excuses Giants win WS with horrible farm and horrible contracts i.e. Barry Zito and Aaron Rowland. Giants find a way to put a good team on the field.
You all jelly of the 3 WS.
thegreatcerealfamine
You’re living in the past man!!
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
Giants won those World Series because they scored the lottery on starting pitching. No way that happens to them again.
Coast1
The 2010 Giants had 4 starting pitchers 27 years old or younger and 23 year old Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval. They had some older still effective veterans in Huff, Burrell,, and Uribe. The 2012 team added top prospects Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford, as well as picking up Hunter Pence for a good prospect in Tommy Joseph.
By 2014 those kids from the system were still on the upswing and some of the vets like Morse and Peavy were still effective. That team had 5 regulars who were 27 or younger.
The 2018 team still has Posey, Sandoval, Bumgarner, Belt, and Crawford but they’re 4 years older. The team will have 1 regular 27 or younger, Joe Panik. And he isn’t that good. Unfortunately, he’s the last guy this farm system produced. They once produced Bumgarner. Now Ty Blach is the best the system puts out.
When all the kids were young, bad contracts like those Rowand and Zito got weren’t crippling. They weren’t near the tax. Now those kids have big contracts and the Giants regularly go over the tax threshold.
The Giants couldn’t find a way to put a good team on the field last season and this season should be worse.
It’s remarkable that the Giants won 3 World Series championships. That’s the past. If the objective is to win another World Series championship they aren’t going about it the right way. When a team has as little talent as the Giants do, adding Stanton isn’t going to help.
sanfranb27
“They will have 1 regular under 27 in Joe Panik who isn’t good”
I guess being an all star and gold glove winner constitutes being “not good”
Since Justin Turner has also only been to one all star game and has no gold glove he should be considered “not good”. Plus he is on the wrong side of 30 (32-33 next season) so he should be declining quickly even tho he was garbage until his 30’s.
gesucaja8787
xcxcxcxcx
justin-turner overdrive
“slow Thanksgiving afternoon”
November, 2016: 10 big trades of MLB players, and 16 MLB free agent deals.
November, 2017: 1 big trades of MLB players (Healy to SEA), and 1 MLB free agent deals (Upton to LAA).
“slow entire month so far”
jdgoat
Carpenter and brewer also signed MLB deals fwiw
justin-turner overdrive
oops, meant to say “MLB player free agent deals” meaning, players who were MLB regulars getting deals. Brewer’s never played in MLB.
Bart
Upton wasn’t a free agent.
Ry.the.Stunner
Technically no, but he had an opt out for after 2017, so he had the option to be. He just chose to resign with the Angels.
thegreatcerealfamine
Hey news flash sparky…
Thanksgiving is for Football…
bearcat6
Screw football.
bastros88
agree
thegreatcerealfamine
Come-on-man..this is why so many people hate Baseball. Quit trying to take this stuff so seriously. Ratings down,anthem protests,and so on…Football is still the big bully on the block!
thegreatcerealfamine
Downvote all you want. It still won’t change the facts!!!
redsoxu571
To be fair, Thanksgiving is very early this year…
EndinStealth
Upton wasn’t a free agent. he never opted out.
stevetampa
Please forward to Matt Klentak’s mailbox
redsfan48
Did I seriously see Stanton referred to above as “not injury prone?”
HubcapDiamondStarHalo
I did the same double take. Seven full years in the majors and he’s played in 145 games only three of those seasons…
justin-turner overdrive
Eno Sarris, what are you thinking?
jdgoat
Their point was that his injuries aren’t likely to reoccur
justin-turner overdrive
Show me a player who was oft-injured in his 20’s who played 140+ games regularly in his 30’s.
davbee
Not all injuries are created equal.
Dock_Elvis
Only player that comes to mind…and without cracking open the stats is George Brett.
davbee
Paul Molitor would be another.
outinleftfield
Show me a player whose injuries were HBP related that didn’t play regularly the rest of his career.
timyanks
tony c
damon389
Jed Lowrie
tealmarlin
Hit in the face was not his choice. Injury prone is when they had a big injury, career threatening or something like that. He’s had minor injuries that has taken time to heal.
thegreatcerealfamine
i can see your logic based on the username…lofl
outinleftfield
Stanton is not injury prone. He is HBP prone. Both major trips to the DL have been because of injuries sustained when he was hit by a pitch. In his hand and in his face.
JKB 2
Yes the writer actually said NOT injury prone. I could not believe it! How do people get these jobs
Michael Chaney
Stanton is “not injury prone” and could provide surplus value on a contract that is already at about market value and gives him the opportunity to leave in 3 years if he’s already outperformed his salary? Both of those statements couldn’t be further from the truth
fmj
he’s not injury prone. being injured by a HBP doesn’t make you injury prone. how many of his DL stints are actually due to routine injuries? he’s no cal ripken, but he’s certainly not jd drew.
Coast1
In 2012 he missed time due to a knee issue. In 2013 it was his hamstring. In 2015 it was his wrist.
tuna411
I’ve always felt that staying healthy is a skill in itself.
fmj: it is easy to find dl history, you should not take one writers story, who is fitting the narrative, and believe. Be yourself, not a sheep.
outinleftfield
Here are all of Stanton’s DL visits and the reasons.
He was placed on the DL for the hamstring issue on April 30th and returned June 10th 2013 and has not had any issues with the hamstring since then. Obviously not a recurring injury.
On Sept 11th, 2014 Stanton was hit in the face by a pitch and missed the remainder of the season. Obviously not a recurring type of injury,
In 2015 he spent June 27th to October 5th on the DL for a broken hand that was the result of a HBP. Obviously not a recurring type of injury.
In 2016 he had a groin strain that kept him out from Aug 14th to Sept 5th.
Please explain how that type of injury history makes him “injury prone”?
elscorchot
Actually, hamate bone, not wrist
fmj
hey tuna. no sheep here. go look at his injury history yourself and show me any recurring injury that would indicate he’s prone. he’s been HBP twice that gave him the bulk of his dl time. who’s the sheep?
tuna411
Brittle people break parts all over their body. When fewer than half his seasons stanton reached 550 at bats, sorry, but that is a sign of injury prone.
Benjamin Markham
Yeah, when I hear Stanton’s name, the word I’m definitely not thinking of is “brittle”, Something tells me you wouldn’t say that to his face.
fmj
yep and once again you’re ignoring WHY. i can think of many words to describe Stanton. brittle is nowhere on that list. haters gonna hate
Rezimodos
If someone says that to his face he would physically accost them? Sounds like Stanton has some severe character issues worth exploring.
Michael Chaney
I’d agree with you if it was just the HBP…but that’s not even close
timyanks
he is injury prone if he can’t get out of the way of a pitched baseball
fmj
slide – this is the most uneducated statement I’ve heard in months. congrats. you’re THAT guy. lol wow
timyanks
truth hurts
jfive
Not sure what Eno Sarris is drinking, but in 8 seasons Stanton has only played more than 145 games in a season 3 times….that reads injury prone to me
Brixton
And 1 of them was his rookie year, another two were because of freak HBPs, so nah, hes alrigt
Coast1
Not really. One of those freak HBPs actually occurred in a season where Stanton played 145 games. But let’s knock off the other season and his rookie year. That means he’s played 145 games in 3 of 6 seasons.
Joey Votto has played 158 games in 4 of the last 5 seasons.
Nolan Arenado has played in 157 games in 3 for his 4 full seasons.
Kris Bryant has played in 151 games in each of his 3 full seasons.
Charlie Blackmon has played 143 games in each of his 4 full seasons.
Antony Rendon has played in 147 games in 3 of his 4 full seasons.
Paul Goldschmidt has played in 155 games in 4 of the last 5 seasons.
I don’t know if the seasons where Votto, Arenado, Rendon, and Goldschmidt missed games due to freak HBPs, but even after eliminating Stanton’s freak HBPs (and not for the others) he’s still missed significant time in a greater number of seasons than anyone else.
reflect
Ok but no one is saying Stanton is durable like those guys either. People act as if “most durable player in baseball” and “extremely injury prone” are the only two designations available.
There’s actually this huge range between being injury prone and being highly durable. It’s called “normal.”
kbarr888
It amazes me that people fail to see that in the shortest season that Stanton has ever played……. he had stats that most players would die for.
He played 74 games and hit 27 home runs. He had 69 RBIs in less than half a season. Most of the players that you guys brag about don’t have that kind of season when they play 140 games. Not talking about Votto, Arenado, or Blackmon……. but I’m talking about two-thirds of the players in MLB
Granted he has missed some time in his career…… but when he has been in the lineup…. he’s been Money!!!
Michael Chaney
That’s a compelling argument, but it’s tough to justify paying for Stanton’s expected full season stats if you aren’t going to actually have him for the full year. He’s productive no matter how many games he plays, yes, but you’re paying for a full season of production, not part of one.
antibelt
Getting hit in the face is hardly being injury prone.
Coast1
Fangraphs insists on valuing 1.0 WAR at $9.0 million. Last season 1.0 WAR cost $4.6 million. WAR is more expensive on the free agent market, but assigning a value. If 5.3 WAR costs the average team $24.5 million Stanton’s $25 million contract doesn’t provide excess value. .
outinleftfield
The value of a point of WAR is based solely on what FA are paid, not all players. Through their arbitration years, players are not free to earn market value for their services so you cannot include them in the value of a point of WAR or in determining the value of a FA.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Personally I think Stanton should stay with Miami. He’ll never win so it’s a guarantee opt out. Maybe they Restructure his contract to allow him to opt out after 2018, 2021 and 2025. Depending on PA. And other incentives. It’s unfair for him to have to wait 3 seasons to get to opt out. A 13 year deal with only 1 opt out. I’d never agree to that.
It was pretty stupid of Statnon to sign that contract . The Marlins never had a chance at winning. Losing jose Fernandez hurt that franchise. He’ll never admit it that’s gotta be one of the reason dude sold them.
HubcapDiamondStarHalo
This might be the first time in history that a man was called “stupid” for signing a $325 million contract…
Johnny
Ditto—$300M Guaranteed—yeah that was stupid
aff10
Well, I think his second argument was that the Marlins could only win with Jose Fernandez, as though Stanton should’ve foreseen Fernandez’ death
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
The money doesn’t make him stupid signing an extension with a known losing franchise. Who would just fire sale if they ever won again. They can’t even get more than 10k games in their stadium. In 6 years they did absolutely nothing to get Stanton help to try to win. Why would think it would change in the next 13.
Like I said he should have demanded 2 or 3 opt outs.
thegreatcerealfamine
Dude sold them because he saw a way to get out of that black hole that is the Marlins…
Mjm117
You can’t restructure contracts in baseball. And why is it unfair to way 3 season to execute (or not) the opt out clause? I’d be stupid not to sign a 300+million dollar contract. Lol
tuna411
opt outs should equal GM getting fired
mikeyank55
It wasn’t the GM. Everyone is focused on external issues. You had a greedy owner who issued the contract as part of his exit strategy. Loria was a dumb owner; Blame him and his buddy Seelig for allowing him to flip the franchises in the first place.
astros_fan_84
The contract is 100% toxic. If he’s good, he leaves. If he’s bad, the new team pays him $213M over 7 years.
Opposing franchises understandably aren’t interested.
kbarr888
Then every contract with an Opt-Out is toxic.
Michael Chaney
Well I mean they always lean clearly in favor of the players…Hayward, Cueto, and Price probably aren’t opting out anytime soon
astros_fan_84
As a general rule, I would say they are.
bastros88
yeah pretty much
outinleftfield
So by your reasoning that is why this early in the offseason 3 teams have already made formal offers and 11 total are expected to make offers before the Winter Meetings?
wayneroo
Can someone answer this for me? Since the Marlins aren’t exactly financially stable (at least it doesn’t seem like it; sounds like ownership is already looking for new investors to ease the load), what happens to Stanton’s contract if ownership goes BK or can’t cover payroll? Is MLB liable for contract payments? Are they insured for this as opposed to injuries? Just thinking this may be a reason Stanton would want to get out of Miami.
Koodle
MLB would probably step in. They most likely can cover his payroll. It’s just signing additional players that obviously would be difficult(plus salaries of younger players increasing due to arbritration
Koodle
Arbitration* (sorry the app froze and posted my comment) but I’m most 100% sure how the MLB handles a team f they go bankrupt. I know in EPL if a club goes bankrupt the league overtakes financial responsibilities and deducts points from the club. But otherwise it’s hard to say if they have a concrete plan.
reflect
Contracts are guaranteed by MLB. The other owners would have to pick up the tab. That’s why MLB makes sure owners are financially healthy in the first place. Because they don’t want to be left paying for such a scenario.
Mjm117
New ownership is slashing payroll and wants to rebuild like the Astros/White Sox/Braves..to name a few. Stanton doesn’t want to be in a rebuilding team.
redsoxu571
What bothers me about talk of Stanton being a player “teams should work to acquire” is that the timing is terrible. For people who understood his ability and upside and weren’t turned off by the more fluke-based injuries he had suffered, Stanton’s value was literally the same last year, but was available at a much lower cost. His upside and risk truly isn’t the slightest different this off-season as it was last, minus a year of aging and lost control, and yet because this is a sell high setup now the price is much higher.
If you try to build a franchise with any eye on getting bang for your buck, Stanton is a must-avoid on that basis alone.
redsoxrob9418
Astros fan you hit the nail right on the head, that’s why I could see dumbo sign away our talent on the Sox and sign him. So in three years when his numbers aren’t quit as good anymore, were stuck with him. can someone name the last huge contract that paid off the entire length of it, every year all I read is how teams are trying to dump huge no longer productive contracts
astros_fan_84
That’s why I love it when opposing teams sign mega deals. Pujols, Cano, and Shin Su Koo (I know it’s misspelled) are doing a great job making sure the Astros win in 2018.
mikeyank55
How about David Price’s contract? Or maybe John Henry arranged for a
Lifetime sentence for Price and he is sentenced to Pawtucket Prison. It’s Henry’s secret weapon to equalize dumb contract signings.
jmi1950
Players with 5 yrs MLB service can not be sent to minors without their consent. That is why the NYY could not get out of A Rod’s contact and even had to pay the Lux Tax on the last yr. Castillo and Craig did not have 5yrs and if they had refused the AAA assignment they would have gotten zero and the Sox would have been relieved of the contract and any Lux Tax implications.
Dean arima
Depending on what you surrender in trade I would think the team that gets him will hope he opts out. I know when the giants got Cueto I was hoping he would opt out. That way you only end paying for premium year performance. The back end of that contract is real ugly.
astros_fan_84
Every team hopes for the opt out bc that means the player is good.
seamaholic 2
Opt outs are always bad for the team. Always. It’s a mathematical certainty
outinleftfield
Since this is an article about Stanton, let’s use him as the example.
Some basic assumptions for this example.
It assumes the value of WAR won’t go up over the next 3 seasons to make the math easier. It has gone up an average of 12% per year.
This example also assumes that Stanton performance will decline 23.2% from this year. That is not likely unless he is injured.
Contract through opt out – $77 million ($25 million, $26 million, $26 million)
Projected fWAR – 15.9 WAR (according to Edwards at Fangraphs)
Value of a point of WAR – $9 million minimum per season
Projected value of his performance – 15.9 WAR x $9 million = $143.1 Million
Surplus value – $66.1 million
This example is purposely conservative using Edwards from Fangraphs projected value of WAR and of Stanton’s production. Even then he provides $66.1 million in surplus value in those 3 seasons. If the value of a point of WAR is closer to the $11 million projected by MLBTR FA figures and Stanton produces a season over 6.0 WAR, an 80% chance over the next 3 seasons, then his surplus value will dwarf these already extraordinary value for the team that trades for him (or the Marlins if he stays).
So can you explain how it’s a mathematical certainty in Stanton’s case?
If I was the GM trading for Stanton I would be hoping he opted out. My team just got the best of his years with surplus value that nearly equals what we paid him and no further obligations. If he doesn’t opt out my team would be on the hook for the remaining $218 million for Stanton’s age 31-37 seasons. Seasons where it’s almost a certainty that he is in decline.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
If you are hoping he opts out there’s no chance he will opt out. Player will opt out if and only if you don’t want him to.
agentx
The opt-out reduces an acquiring team’s risk of being stuck with Stanton should his performance tail off dramatically in 2021 or later.
So while the opt-out may curtail the surplus value an acquiring team might realize with a healthy, productive Stanton, I agree that the opt-out still makes this a more appealing proposition than if Stanton had a 10-year contract with no opt-out.
timyanks
opt outs and no trade clauses need to be eliminated, along with trading a player and covering part of his salary. add to that, contracts should be limited to 5 years, maximum.
LADreamin
No
WarrenSpahn
Stanton is in the driver’s seat here. He can choose to stay and make the Marlins pay every cent. He can go to any team he wants because the Marlins have to move him, the contract is No-Trade so Stanton can pick the team he wants. The Marlins are truly screwed. They are going to have to eat a big, big chunk. The Dodgers are just sitting back waiting for Marlins distress. Jeter has no chance.
LADreamin
Muahahaha says Friedman
outinleftfield
Why would the Marlins be screwed? If they don’t get a deal for him that will set the team to contend when they get their new TV contract for 2021, then they keep him and trade others.
If Stanton chooses to opt out after 2020, then the Marlins got extreme surplus value during his time with the organization. If he doesn’t opt out then they still have received surplus value to make up for the declining value they will receive for the $218 million he will still be owed at that point.
Either way, the Marlins are getting the best end of the deal.
It is Stanton that will be suffering if the Marlins are not willing to make a trade that is offered and he has to be there through 3 seasons of losing.
seamaholic 2
Marlins don’t have to trade him. They can wait until mid-season or next year and dump other salary. They’re in charge and Stanton cannot force the Marlins to do anything.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
I agree with you somewhat. Stanton is definitely in the drivers seat. They aren’t forced to to trade him. They can dump other salary. That said here is the catch 22, there is not much other salary that can feasibly be moved to get within their number unless you’re talking about completely gutting the team. They can’t move Prado,Vasquez,Chen, and Tazawa. (maybe they can move Ziegler). That’s equals out to ~56 mill in dead money. So if they can’t or won’t move Stanton who do you trade? Gordon well he’s ok not sure you get much, you definitely can kill with ozuna, and Yellich. That’s still only a ~4 mill diff in their favor. And sure they might be able to stick a bad contract here and there, but kind of significantly handicaps the return. The return is going to have a clear win for Ozuna and Yelich.
So do they have to? No they don’t especially if they aren’t fully intent on parring down salary. Should they? Yes most definitely highest value, full season so on so forth…. In other words, if they have to and it’s mandated to slash significant payroll then there’s not necessarily enough other big payroll to cut. Especially if this team wants to semi compete. There’s just no better time. He’s completely healthy and just came off an amazing season. Not sure you see this kind of contract taken mid season, until we have clear parameters of what Harper and Macahado are worth. Add onto that the swing in market values youth and both will be 5 years younger than Stanton when they sign. Not really sure an opt out is eminent with the backloaded nature of that contract and the age it carries to.
Coast1
The Marlins don’t have to reduce their payroll. They want to reduce their payroll for the next couple of years until they get a new TV deal. I doubt they’ll just give good players away just to reduce payroll. Jeter is trying to get new investors and that cash could ease their situation for the next couple of years.
Stanton would only be in the driver’s seat the way you say if he doesn’t mind losing the next 2-3 years, at a minimum. He’s indicated he does, however, so rejecting any trade not involving the Dodgers could mean he is miserable playing on a losing team.
We don’t know which is greater, the Marlins’ desire to move Stanton or Stanton’s desire to be moved. I doubt he’s willing to stay until the Marlins come around and make a deal with the Dodgers. I’m willing to bet that the Marlins are willing to hold Stanton if he insists on the Dodgers and the Dodgers aren’t offering enough.
outinleftfield
That is a certainty. If they hold him they get his peak years, they don’t offend their fans as much as moving Gordon, Prado, Ozuna, and others to get to their target payroll figures. Then they are off the hook for his declining years when he opts out which is also almost a certainty.
They are not going to take a bad trade just to dump Stanton’s salary.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Wait. First you said you would hope he opts out if you are a GM trading for him now you say it is almost a certainty he will opt out? How does that work? A player will only opt out if he plays well enough that you would prefer him not opting out. And don’t say you want to get off the hook for the back end of the contract because even if that is the case, if he plays well enough that he would want to opt out, if he weren’t able to opt out he would figure to become a nice trade chip. Opt outs never benefit the team.
outinleftfield
Just read Edwards article. That is the epitome of stupid.
He posits that Stanton is going to produce $76 million in surplus value over the next 3 seasons based on a value of a point of WAR that is below the 2017 level and that will not increase over the next 3 seasons.
1st off, the value of a point of WAR for 2017 cannot be calculated yet because it is determined after the FA are signed. If the MLBTR numbers for the top FA are accurate, then each point of WAR will be closer to $11 million. In addition, it will be higher next offseason and the one after that.
That would put the surplus value that Stanton creates in Edwards example at closer to $100 million. If he plays only that well and doesn’t reproduce his 2017 production then his opt-out is a huge benefit to the team trading for him. If he produces at a level closer to his 6.9 WAR in 2017 then no matter what happens, opt-out or stay, trading for Stanton will have been a positive for the team that acquires him.
Common sense isn’t and Edwards article is proof positive of that fact.
timyanks
all speculation
outinleftfield
It’s math. I get that even though its very simple, it’s over your head and that you didn’t read Edwards article.
Do you enjoy being such a bad troll?
timyanks
your crystal ball is cloudy and has no idea what the future holds. no stats can be predicted for the future. everybody starts at zero. that’s why they play the games.
ericl
I don”t think the Giants have to worry about Stanton rejecting a trade to them because I feel Stanton would go there. It is teams like St. Louis & Boston that need to worry. Those are places that it seems like Stanton won’t go.
JKB 2
@ Kyle Downing
How in the world can you write an article claiming Stanton is NOT injury prone? I am astounded by that reckless comment. Explain your position please.
In 8 years he has played 150 games or mor only 4 times. He played 73 games and 116 games only a few seasons ago
Do your homework if you are going to write an article please
Kyle Downing
The simple answer to this: read the article Eno Sarris wrote in which he claimed this point; I linked you to it in the post. It’s not my job to read for you.
Segovia3047
150 games is only missing 12 games… That isn’t injury prone, injury prone would be only playing 100 games a season. He’s not incredibly Durable but he’s not injury prone. His two seasons with 76 and 116 games were due to being HBP something incontrollable.
Rezimodos
We’ve yet to hear a definitive stance from the Stanton camp on the continual announcements of victimization of women by men in powerful positions. It’s difficult to believe Stanton has never heard of this happening amongst players. Does he feel it should end or is this behaviour par for the course in his book?
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
I’m sticking to my original prediction. Rangers don’t trade Profar and Stanton is traded to a team not called the Giants or Cardinals.