Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has identified his five best potential free agent values and, on the other hand, five most worrisome open-market landmines. Those posts are always interesting and are well worth a read as we wait for the market to get started in earnest.
Here are a few free agent notes on Thanksgiving Eve:
- The Mariners have engaged with free agent outfielder Jon Jay, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It “seems as though there’s some momentum there,” he adds, while also cautioning that there isn’t a deal in place at present. Jay checked in just inside the top forty players on MLBTR’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, with a predicted contract of two years and $14MM. Last year, he slashed .296/.374/.375 in 433 plate appearances with the Cubs while seeing time across the outfield. It seems unlikely that the left-handed hitter would command everyday time in Seattle, but might effectively step into the place in the rotation vacated by fellow free agent Jarrod Dyson.
- It’s possible the Mets will “move[] soon” to add to their bullpen, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. He suggests right-handed free agent Bryan Shaw as a name to watch for the organization, which has indicated an interest in beefing up its relief corps in part to reduce the workload on a rotation that has dealt with health issues of late. Shaw, 30, is about as steady and reliable as relievers come. He carries a 3.13 lifetime ERA through 446 1/3 innings across seven seasons. Shaw has handled at least 64 frames in each of the past five campaigns and has never finished a season with an earned run average over 3.52 (last year’s mark). He has also paced the American League in appearances in three separate seasons for the Indians, including each of the past two. MLBTR rated Shaw the 25th-best free agent available and predicted he’d score a $21MM guarantee over three years, though there’s likely some contractual upside beyond that mark.
- Though Todd Frazier has spent most of his career at third base and is still capable of manning the position, Feinsand reports that his representatives are pitching the veteran as an option at either infield corner. The 31-year-old Frazier turned in a solid 2017 campaign, split between the White Sox and Yankees, in which he posted a .213/.344/.428 batting line with 27 home runs. While that represented a big jump in the on-base department over his prior two seasons, Frazier also wasn’t quite as prolific in terms of power as he was after swatting 35 and 40 long balls in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Odds are that the team to sign Frazier will mostly value him as an option at third, particularly given that there are a fair number of other options available at first base, but the openness to both positions certainly won’t hurt his market outlook. Frazier landed ahead of the two players listed above on our free agent board, with a predicted three-year, $33MM contract placing him 17th on the list.
SimplyAmazin91
Hopefully all that work done by Shaw doesn’t lead to injury. I just know the Mets, 3 years on the contract and he’ll be dl’ed for about 2.5 years of the contract.
ken48tribe
With Callaway managing the Mets, Shaw wouldn’t be going into a totally unknown environment.
mikeyank55
Congratulations on being a realistic Mets fan.
antsmith7
I’d like to get John Jay. He’d be a good fit. He can leadoff and Jean can hit second.
afenton530
LoCain is the best fit for the M’s if they want to seriously compete imo
wellhitball
Jay was an expensive platoon bat for the Cubs this past year and he’s not a good defender at CF anymore (he’s not very fast). On top of all that, he may very well go the whole season without hitting a single home run at Safeco. And yet I still think he’ll go for at least $8 million per year because he’s good in the clubhouse.
justinept
I didn’t encounter too many Cubs fans that were upset by Jays production in the field or at the plate. Guy had a stellar season at a reasonable price.
wellhitball
It’s true that Jay would probably stay in Chicago for another year if Almora weren’t taking over in center.
I guess Jay’s value will depend on what he signs for. 7 per year is great, but 10 isn’t.
Does anyone know what the price of a win in free agency is projected to be this winter?
brucewayne
Jon Jay is a steal at $8 million a year! Great teammate
acarneglia
I hope Todd will be back in Yankees pinstripes
SundownDevil
Jeff Todd wouldn’t look good in pinstripes.
sufferforsnakes
It would depend on the tie and shoes.
Michael Chaney
Let’s not get crazy here
thegreatcerealfamine
Yes indeed,hopefully they can get him on a 2-3 year deal. He can always man the DH if one of the kids wins the third base job,that’s when Ohtani is not filling the DH…
BronxBombers14
Doubt that happens. With Torres and Andujar on the way, and Headley and Torreyes still under contract, it doesn’t make sense to sign Frazier to a multi year contract.
rocky7
AgreedBronzBombers14….especially if they are successful with Ohtani, which I predict they probably will.
Headley has got 1 more year, and with both Andujar and Torres knocking at the door, no room for the ToddFather at first either….at least enough to make a difference with the BirdMan there.
Not enough at bats to spread around either at 3rd, 1st, or in the DH hole.
thegreatcerealfamine
Rock…even if successful signing Ohtani they’re gonna need at bats at DH and I’d much rather have Todd Frazier filling in then Headley and 2 years wouldn’t hurt. Torres is not knocking at the door yet(he’s barely spent time at triple-A) and Andujar is being rated more as a bench asset. Headley isn’t a everyday player anymore and shouldn’t be considered as such. These prospects are fantastic to dream on but we’ve seen them also struggle..Frazier,Bird,Severino,Judge,so they’re not gonna hit the ground running. Don’t be surprised if one or two of them are used to get a starter…
slider32
I don’t think Frazier fits into the picture this year. Judge also struggled along with Mantle and Mays when they came up. The Yanks aren’t even thinking about bringing Frazier back.
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BronxBombers14
Don’t forget, you’re going to get abs from the DH spot from Gary Sanchez too.
BronxBombers14
Don’t forget, you’re going to get abs from the DH spot from Gary Sanchez too.
Also, take a look at Headley’s offensive numbers in comparison to Frazier’s. You’ll be surprised. I’d much rather one more year of Headley than 2-3 of Frazier.
Kayrall
He just compared judge to mantle and mays.
thegreatcerealfamine
And it’s not a certain Headley is with the team next year…
BronxBombers14
Would make a lot more sense to keep Headley around than it would to sign Frazier to a multi-year deal.
mikeyank55
One thing for certain; Todd will NOT become a Met. He has too much pride to accept losing ways after having a taste of winning baseball on the Yankees
andremets
Winning baseball? Really? Which team has been to the World Series in the past 3 years and which hasn’t. Sad how dumb your comment is. Also, Frazier saw a lot of losing with Reds and White Sox.
Planbchu
The only thing I want for Christmas is for Todd Frazier to sign with anyone other than the Yankees. He’s trash. Have fun in Queens, Todd. The man can’t hit. He’s like Chris Carter, but with a slightly better glove. I will never understand why fans like him, he’s terrible.
timyanks
solid .213? what, were they throwing him lead baseballs?
Joe Kerr
lol, I think the solid part of the line he was talking about is the .772 OPS, I don’t think many teams weigh batting average heavily anymore. He plays solid D while putting up power numbers.
DoItDoug
Agreed. Bautista had a slightly worse average and obp and people refer to it as terrible. Yet, Frazier is solid?
matthew102402
Uh, he’s either getting full time, or platooning with Heredia, considering Heredia’s MASSIVE platoon splits. It all depends on the Mariners trust in having Gamel hit against lefties (.699 OPS against same handed pitchers in 2017).
Stevil
Jay would likely be platooned with Heredia, but there’s certainly an argument for the platoon to include Gamel instead. The thing that sucks about that scenario is that there wouldn’t likely be room for another outfielder, unless they’re comfortable with Romine–a RHH–serving as the immediate alternative to Healy in addition to the rest of the infield.
If they land Jay, I would hope that they would acquire another outfielder and try to snag someone like Mike Ford in the Rule 5 draft to serve as a fallback option, or acquire Christion Walker for the same purpose. Or both.
Stevil
I should correct myself. Jay wouldn’t need to be platooned and probably wouldn’t be. His splits were fine. I had mixed him up with someone else.
justin-turner overdrive
Yeah, the Mariners should totally replace the 2.6 WAR Dyson with the 1.1 WAR Jay. That’ll be a big improvement.
Stevil
Yeah, it wouldn’t. But Haniger would likely be taking over CF, with Jay in a corner. You could argue that Jay would be replacing Martin.
Personally, I’d prefer to see the Mariners try to acquire Brett Phillips from the Breweres if he’s available. Put him in RF, have Gamel and Heredia platoon LF, and move Haniger to Center. Dexter Fowler would be a better option as well, as he wouldn’t need to be platooned, though he would need to be moved to LF, St. Louis would need to eat some salary, and Fowler would have to waive his no-trade clause.
rememberthecoop
Without looking, I would surmise that Dyson must have derived much of his WAR on defense, because other than SBs, his BA and OBP leave a lot to be desired. Neither one has power. I’d rather have Jay – better hitter, was great off the bench with the Cubs – and is a clubhouse leader.
justin-turner overdrive
Ok, but WAR neutralizes over time, so here’s their last 4 seasons of bWAR:
Dyson: 2.8, 2.2, 3.1, 2.6
Jay: 2.8, -0.2, 1.1, 1.1
Gotta go with Dyson, especially if strictly using him against righties.
ayrbhoy
Watching Dyson this past year was frustrating at times but I’m not sure if his bad stretches were a result of his injury. I’d love two more years of Dyson if we don’t sign Lorenzo Cain
RefuseToLose95
if anyone can get the john jay deal done its Master Dipoto. he cannot do wrong! RTL baby!!
steelerbravenation
I actually think Jay would be a good value for the Mets he could split CF with Lagares and also fill in the other OF spots especially if Canfordo misses a lot of time and wouldn’t break the bank
Say Hey Now Kid
I was thinking basically the same thing. The Mets need another outfielder. Jay would be a good fit
madmc44
The Red Sox could use Todd Frazier as an inexpensive 1 B and a back-up 3 B in case Devers has issues in the field.
I would hope DD is looking at both Frazier as a FA pick-up and Jose Abreu in trade. Both have the ability to hit between 30 and 40 dingers with 80 to 100 RBI.
Add Cozart to the mix and you have a nice batting order extension to go with Bene, Betts Hanley and Devers.
Trade Bogaerts / Bradley,Jr./ Swihart/ Pomerantz/and others for other needs.
The Sox could bring in Frazier, Abreu and Cozart. for the price of Stanton. Can’t wait for the moves.
adshadbolt
You want to trade bogarts, Bradley, swihart, pomeranz and replace them with cosart, Frazier, abreu that makes total sense. Why would they trade their 25 year old short stop who is a year removed from 200 hits for a 30 year old with one good offensive year yea that’s smart. Trade pomeranz? He was their second best starter last year, he’s young, affordable, and consistent.
zoinksscoob91 2
If the M’s are going to spend $8 or so on Jay, they might as well take that money and re-sign Dyson. He’s a known commodity to the team, and is definitely much more of a speed threat than Jay. Dyson was also considered one of the top 10 defensive outfielders in baseball. Not sure why he isn’t getting the love here.
The M’s cannot put Haniger in CF; he’s an absolute butcher in the OF (forget any defensive metrics; I watched this guy play… he routinely kicks balls around and doesn’t get good jumps on balls at all.) RF is bad enough, but putting him in the spacious CF at Safeco would cause the pitchers to mutiny. He can definitely hit the ball, though.
Heredia has too strong a platoon split to be an everyday player; he’s a very good 4th OF. Gamel is somone who needs to look at his second half and figure out what went wrong; otherwise, Gamel and Heredia could end up platooning. I’d take Dyson over Jay any day, but wouldn’t mind Lorenzo Cain over either one.
That being said, it looks like the M’s would appear to be going relatively cheap on offense in an attempt to land a good top of the rotation starter (which really should be their #1 priority.) They added $500K in international bonus pool money by trading Vieira, so they could be making a serious run at Ohtani (or they could go after one of the Braves’ prospects that were just freed up.) Or they could be looking at Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. I think that Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta will be too expensive for them.
As a Mariners’ fan, I hope Dipoto doesn’t screw this up… another season like this last one, and the team will have to make some very hard decisions next winter, not just with the front office and players, but on the business side. The stadium’s naming rights agreement is expiring, and Safeco has already said they aren’t going to renew. My guess is, if the team doesn’t step up in performance, no company will beat down a path to the Mariners’ door to suck up naming rights, so more lost revenue there. Also, at the end of the season, the 20-year “charter seat” agreement will expire; those of us who plunked down a big chunk of change for the right of first refusal to buy good seats as season tickets (like PSL’s in football) have been given NO indication by the team as to what happens next. Rumor is they are planning to DOUBLE the season ticket prices for the charter seat holders, which will go over as well as the bubonic plague. So there could be a mass exodus of those hardcore fans (which will NOT be even close to made up by day-of-game sales of those seats at higher prices), and a lot of bad will. It could finally be time for that massive teardown/rebuild that is desperately needed.
slider32
Alderson has been living off of all of Omar’s drafts, he hasn’t done a good job. We all know the Mets can get right back into the playoffs if their pitchers come through next season. A healthy Syndergaard, de Grom, Harvey, and Matz will get them to the promise land. Everyone else are just gravy. That being said, the Mets need to sign 2 top free agents, players like Hosmer, Cain, Moose, Bruce, Morrison, or Frazier. They also need to add to the pen with players like Minor, McGee, Morrow, and Shaw. If they sign 4 of these guys they have a chance of being the wild card.
andremets
I guess you think Sandy got lucky with Syndergaard.
steelerbravenation
If any team in baseball pretty much signed 4 of those guys they would be wild card contenders.
Still think Harvey for Josh Harrison
Sign Jay
Sign Shaw & Minor
Trade Dom Smith for Ordorizzi
Sign Hosmer
sgtpain20
Not crazy about Jay. I believe Dyson would be cheaper, stole more bases, and higher slugging %. You want to make a better impact at center/line up? LoCain would do it. Let’s get it done!
Armaday
I see the Mets making a play for Frazier. Good fit for their needs
mikeyank55
The Mets owners don’t want to pay two expensive third basemen this year. Oh well. Plus Frazier wants to play for a winner. Oh my.
andremets
Again with the dumb comments. Why wouldn’t you think the Mets can contend next year? Just a dumb yankee troll.
justin-turner overdrive
Frazier will go to SF.
Joe giovengo
All the metrics did was create dorks
thegreatcerealfamine
The guys that were always picked last…
justin-turner overdrive
All metrics did was make you butthurt about having to change up something in your life you refuse to do because of dumb reasons.
If a player has a high WAR, he’s good. Sometimes RBI doesn’t show the whole picture of how good a player is on both sides of the ball.
thegreatcerealfamine
Both sides of the ball is a Football term not a Baseball term Richard!!!
DaKingoftheNorth
He should be ok, remember, Ray Ramirez is gone !