When it comes to the starting pitching market this offseason, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb will hold some of the widest appeal of any names on the market. Both right-handers would be an upgrade to virtually any rotation in the Majors, and both figure to be more affordable to interested parties than top-of-the-market names like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta. Each enjoyed a solid 2017 campaign in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, though neither has fully regained the form he showed prior to that operation. Both players rejected one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offers, so both will require draft-pick forfeiture to sign.
Lynn, 31 next May, is the older of the two but has also been more durable throughout his career. While he missed all of 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, he’s averaged 31.8 starts and 189 innings per season across his past five healthy campaigns — dating back to the 2012 season. The 3.43 ERA that Lynn turned in this past season bears a striking resemblance to the 3.39 mark he’s compiled in 943 innings from 2012-17.
Looking beyond Lynn’s ERA, though, there were plenty more red flags in 2017 than he had in his peak seasons. Lynn’s velocity, strikeout rate and walk rate are all worse than the marks he posted in his best seasons, and a huge spike in his homer-to-flyball rate (14.2 percent) led to a career-worst 1.30 HR/9 mark. Of course, home runs were up leaguewide, with many believing an altered composition of the baseball being a primary factor in that trend. Lynn’s secondary numbers are far less encouraging than his ERA, but he did take the ball 33 times and log 186 1/3 innings — largely reestablishing himself as a reliable source of innings.
Cobb, on the other hand, will pitch the 2018 season at the age of 30. Unlike Lynn, durability has never been a strong point in his favor and could, in fact, be the single largest red flag attached to his free agency. Cobb tossed 179 1/3 innings in 2017, and that marked a career-high. We’ve never seen a free-agent starter without a 180-inning season under his belt score a four-year commitment on the open market, but there’s a belief that Cobb could set a new precedent in that regard.
In those 179 1/3 innings, Cobb turned in a 3.66 ERA but did so with a pedestrian K/9 mark of 6.4, albeit against a strong 2.2 BB/9 mark and with an above-average 47.8 percent ground-ball rate. Interested teams will no doubt be heartened by the fact that Cobb’s K/BB numbers overwhelmingly trended in the right direction down the stretch, as he posted a 38-to-8 K/BB ratio with a 2.82 ERA and a 3.01 xFIP in his final 38 1/3 innings. That bears a strong resemblance to Cobb’s peak, when he turned in a 2.82 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 309 2/3 frames. Of course, that performance also came way back in 2013-14, and until his final seven starts of the season, he hadn’t approximated that form post-surgery.
The markets for Cobb and Lynn seem almost certain to overlap, as they’ll be widely regarded as the Nos. 3 and 4 starting pitchers on the open market (excluding Shohei Ohtani, whose unique market can’t exactly be compared to that of standard Major League free agents). Teams will weigh Lynn’s considerably greater track record of durability against Cobb’s strong finish and superior performance leading up to Tommy John surgery. Either of the two could slot comfortably into the middle of most big league rotations or, at worst, serve as a strong fourth or fifth starter in a more premium rotation.
Obviously, this is a high-level look and there are many other considerations to factor into the decision. That said, let’s see where MLBTR readers stand on the issue (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Wow man ! How bout a graphic w/pics of both of em side by side….? Not up-and-down hatchet job….your instigating Nick Esasky’s vertigo….
Haaaaa !!!!
Ha, I didn’t realize how poorly the vertical alignment would render in the app. I’ve already updated with a side-by-side image. Refresh!
Thanks. What no props for working in my Esasky/vertigo reference…? Lookin forward to great Hot Stove articles till Cs & Ps report, to whole staff, keep up the terrific work !!!!
Cobb is way inferior to Lynn. There isn’t any statistics that bear out showing any reason to want Cobb more.
Cobb won’t cost as much money
Lynn’s more expensive and he has more red flags
What red flags exactly?
Which red flags? Did you bother to read the article
It depends what a team is looking for. A team like Toronto who had a lot of injuries to their starters last season, would value Lynn’s durablilty. Another team would probably prefer Cobb’s upside.
In a bubble if I were a team like the Cubs I would probably prefer to sign Lynn and Cobb over Arrietta or Darvish.
Not true at all. Cobb would be much better on the cubs with his excellent ground ball rate and their excellent defense.
His point is that he’d rather spend $175 million on 2 pitchers as opposed to dropping the same on the top tier available pitchers.
Although neither of these guys will get near 5 yrs/$110M, they both look like potential Jordan Zimmerman level free agent busts.
Zimmerman was gold the first 50 innings. I think he’s due for a bounceback campaign.
That “hot” stretch was all smoke and mirrors, insanely low babip and a high strand rate
I would like Cobb over Lynn in this. A guy on the Rays on the AL east with those numbers over the NL central… a big difference. That’s just hitting. I like the cards d over Rays any day. If so many are sayin their stats are close… let’s look at the team behind em.
The Cards d was not very solid the past two seasons.
Yep – cards D was pretty atrocious on the whole. ’16 was probably worse than ’17, but there’s no doubt that the high HR rate burned Lynn to a greater extent due to some of the clunky fielding behind him. Not sure which stat might bear that out but I wouldn’t be surprised if a few should-have-been errors didn’t hurt his FIP and other talent-estimators by going down as hits.
FIP has nothing to do with balls in play. The variables are home runs, walks, hit by pitch and strikeouts.
Lynn has pitched better with men on base over his career including 2017. So, the home runs he gave up this year did not hurt his ERA as much, but I don’t think you can assume the clutch pitching will continue to happen.
Lynn is definitely the work horse of the two, while Cobb seems to have better stuff. Any contending team that needs that inning eater in their 3-4 slot, Lynn is by far better. I’d put money on it that he gets the bigger contract/ more years, albeit biased that I am a cards fan, but like Cobb in most other rotations.
My question is, how can you expect to pay Cobb between 60-70 million when he averages only a 150 innings per year. That type of durability doesn’t age well, especially to some on the wrong side of 30.
Because the Dodgers have unlimited money, a connection to Cobb, a bullpen that can take over after the 5th inning, and enough rotation depth to give Cobb an extra day of rest whenever they feel like it.
Because the Cubs have all the money in the world, a huge need for Cobb, a lengthy connection to him, and might not want to lose him to a team like LA.
TL/DR- it comes down to the teams chasing him, the money those teams have, and the desire those teams have to make sure the other doesn’t acquire him.
First of all, most free agents are over paid and don’t meet expectations. Second, I think if I need a top end pitcher I would want Arreita over Darvish. Third, on the next tier I would take Cobb or Lynn they are pretty close. Last, the prize of the winter is Ohtani and I think all these pitchers will go to contenders.
I got jiggy with it!
No question the prize is Ohtani. But so much of that has to do with the contract. There’s relatively zero risk in signing this guy, and the potential reward is off the charts.
As for Jake vs Yu. That’s a tough one. No question that out last impression of Jake is better than our last impression of Yu, but I think Yu is a better pitcher. Jake scares me a bit. He’s already lost a tick on his fastball, and his nastiness relies heavily on mechanics that are difficult for him to repeat- which is why he’s gone into a couple funks the past few seasons. Yu just appears the safer, better bet to me. But I’ve been wrong before.
The love affair between the Cubs and Cobb is at a point where I’d consider it a red flag for Cobb if the Cubs don’t get him. They have the money. They have the need. The connection is obvious. The interest appears mutual.