The 2017 World Series pits two of Major League Baseball’s top-regarded analytics departments against one another, writes Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. Plunkett speaks with Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten about the decision to hire president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and the importance that decision played in catching his team up to speed in an increasingly data-driven baseball environment. Dodgers reliever Brandon Morrow, in the midst of a breakout season, chats with Plunkett about the Dodgers’ presentation of data and how it’s helped to turn his career around. “The way that they take those numbers and present them simply is a big deal – because a lot of those numbers can be overwhelming and confusing, to be honest,” says Morrow. Plunkett also speaks with lefty Tony Watson and Astros outfielder Cameron Maybin about the data presentation of both clubs and the way in which it differed from their previous teams.
A few notes on the teams’ respective rosters…
- The Dodgers informed Curtis Granderson last night that he would not be a part of the World Series roster, tweets Plunkett. Manager Dave Roberts said that Granderson was “obviously disappointed but still supportive” as the team geared up for Game 1 of the series. Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes that despite his struggles with the Dodgers — Granderson posted a .654 OPS in the regular season following his trade from the Mets and was just 1-for-15 in the playoffs — the 37-year-old veteran hopes to play in 2018. “Mentally and physically, I feel as if I want to,” Granderson tells Sherman. He acknowledged, though, that it’ll depend on whether clubs throughout the league feel he still has enough to offer at the plate. Granderson posted an above-average OBP (.334) and showed well-above-average pop (.481 slugging, .252 ISO) with the Mets before the trade.
- Rich Hill turned in 135 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball with 11.0 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 with the Dodgers during the regular season, but the remarkable 37-year-old late bloomer told reporters today that L.A.’s World Series opponents made a serious push to sign him last winter. J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group tweets that Hill said today that he “went pretty far” into negotiations with the Astros last winter before ultimately agreeing to his three-year, $48MM contract to return to Los Angeles.
- Mets general manager Sandy Alderson recently commented on non-tendering Justin Turner back in 2013, writes Newsday’s Marc Carig. Turner recently told the media that he declined to attend workouts with Mets strength and conditioning coach (then consultant) Mike Barwis about a week before being non-tendered. (Turner had already lined up hitting lessons with Southern California-based Doug Latta, Carig notes.) Alderson denied that there was any correlation between Turner declining to work with Barwis and the decision to non-tender him. “Justin simply didn’t have a position with us . . . simple as that,” Alderson said to Carig — a reference to the presence of David Wright at third base and Daniel Murphy at second base at the time. The Mets, of course, were hardly the only team to let Turner slip through their fingers. The Reds drafted Turner and traded him to the Orioles as part of the deal to acquire catcher Ramon Hernandez. Baltimore waived him 14 months later. Even the Dodgers, Carig notes, didn’t guarantee Turner a 40-man spot, instead signing him to a minor league contract.
- Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle both penned columns on the close friendship between Dodgers manager Dave Roberts and Astros manager A.J. Hinch. The two were both played college ball in California but only crossed paths once in the Majors, Kaplan notes, before they began working together in the Padres’ front office. (Roberts stole a base against Hinch, though Hinch takes plenty of credit for a Roberts strikeout that game.) As Nightengale points out, it was current Dodgers vice president Josh Byrnes who planted the seeds of Hinch’s managerial career. Byrnes, the D-backs’ GM in 2009, made a then-eye-opening decision to name Hinch a 34-year-old manager. After both Byrnes and Hinch were dismissed by D-backs ownership, Byrnes became the Padres’ general manager and brought Hinch to the front office in San Diego, where he began his friendship with Roberts. As Nightengale details, it was also Byrnes who recommended Hinch for the Astros’ managerial vacancy. “I admired Josh for being bold and making him his manager,” Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells Nightengale. “He was just ahead of his time. The industry wasn’t ready for it.”
Phoenixdownyjr
The grandyman… can’t? Bummer 🙁
Priggs89
Do we really need to ask why Justin Turner was non-tendered by the Mets? He was horrible with them. He had a sub-.700 OPS in his 3 seasons there, and he wasn’t a particularly young player while doing it. Nobody in the world could’ve predicted he’d turn into this with any certainty.
Steve Adams
Yeah, I certainly didn’t mean to imply that it was any kind of surprising move — just that the exact factors that went into the decision not to keep him around in a bench role won’t be known.
Obviously no one could’ve predicted this, but the ’14 Mets gave a combined ~300 PAs to Eric Campbell, Josh Satin and Omar Quintanilla, so it’s not as if their bench was so deep they couldn’t have kept Turner around at $800K. Of course, if they’d done so, he may never have turned into what he is now anyway.
At any rate, it was, of course, a perfectly defensible decision to non-tender him.
EasternLeagueVeteran
Steve, you know your stuff! Sounds like a good where are they now article about Campbell, Satin and Quintanilla. And I always thought Satin would amount to more than he did, since he seemingly was following a Wade Boggs-like path to the big leagues.
BlueSkyLA
Trying to think of something in baseball that is predictable with any certainty. Got some suggestions?
As for defensible, look at who is carrying the Dodgers, and ask why the teams that had them under contract didn’t see their potential and how to develop it.
kbarr888
True!
Just look at the MLB Drafts and you’ll find plenty of “mistakes” that couldn’t be foreseen…..with some of the most glaring examples being……
1. .23 Teams made 24 Picks before Mike trout was taken in the 2009 Draft at 325. Randal Grichuk was taken right before him at #24
2. 58 Picks were made before some guy named “Arenado” was taken. The Washington Nationals picked 3 TIMES before Arenado was chosen (Jeff Kobernus…???….was the 3rd pick at #50)
3. Kyle Seager at #82
4. Dallas Keuchel at #221
5. Paul Goldschmidt was taken at #246…..(Wow!)
6. Matt Carpenter at #399
7. Jake Lamb at #1135
8. Stephen Piscotty (SS) at #1357
BlueSkyLA
With the draft we’re dealing mainly with teenagers so it’s hardly surprising that their abilities aren’t fully apparent at the time of they are drafted. Even if they wait until their college years they are mostly going to be little better than borderline in physical and emotional maturity. Spotting talent at those ages is more art than science. Talent spotting players with a few years of pro ball under their belts, now that’s a different story.
metsoptimist
Yes, thank you.
metsoptimist
(That was in response to Priggs89’s comment.)
Gret1wg
Maybe a positive note that scouting/PD do matter and not just #’s!!!!!! What a steal, Colletti/Group were way ahead of the curve
Armaday
Turner and Murphy matured as great contact hitters in their 30’s.
Hindsight is always 20/20…
WalkersDayOff
Murphy was a proven force in the Mets lineup before he left. They eneded up paying Walker 23 million. Only 14 mill less than murphy.
frankthetank1985
Force is a strong word. He was an above average bat and very below average glove. Bat went crazy in playoff run. Other than that he was a good hitter at best.
WalkersDayOff
Murphy was the only reason they even made the world series. Without him they are going home in the NLDS in 2015
kbarr888
Murphy made a few adjustments to his swing just before the playoffs that year. Obviously…..that worked out well for him.
Stanton Changed his stance completely before the All Star Game this year. Seriously positive results.
Turner spent the 2013-14 winter rebuilding his swing with Marlon Byrd & Doug Latta…………..Bingo…….
Jose Bautista did a similar thing in the 2008-09 off-season.
Take note Joc Pederson, Javier Baez, Maikel Franco, and Jason Heyward (due for another change….that other one didn’t fix anything)
Gret1wg
All good hitters tinker w/their swings, just finding that out, mentally JT is well Above Ave in the box
SundownDevil
At least Granderson is with the team during the World Series. Adrian Gonzalez is ON VACATION during the World Series! Family or not, couldn’t that have waited for another week and a half?!? Just because he’s horrible now and Clay Bellinger has taken his place is NO EXCUSE to ditch his team since 2012 during the World Series. Isn’t this the goal of every single player? Horrible move on Gonzo’s part.
WalkersDayOff
He is not on vacation in Italy. Those were pathetic rumors. He is working on the dodgers post game show.
BlueSkyLA
His teammate don’t have an unkind word to say about Adrian Gonzales. They don’t even have an unkind syllable. Yet according to some so-called fans, the moment he is hurt and unable to play for the first time in his entire career, he’s horrible.
Don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
BTW, it’s Cody Bellinger, unless you are talking about his dad.
sufferforsnakes
Dang, Clay Bellinger came out of retirement?
BlueSkyLA
And not a moment too soon, apparently.
Sid Bream
@SundownDevil You really don’t have a clue do you. Some of these guys get very limited time with their families. How disappointed do you think Gonzalez is to have such a career as his then for the team to make it to the WS and then he can’t play. His injured back came at the most inopportune time in his career and you’re calling him out? I rarely recall him being on the D/L in the past. As John McEnroe would say, are you serious? Gonzalez of course wants his team and team mates to win, and him not being there will not diminish his support at all for the whole roster and coaching staff. I fully understand him not being there, as it would be just too hard to watch for him from a mental point of view, Dave Roberts and his teammates understood too, and that’s all that counts.
Phoenixdownyjr
Agreed 162 games in 180 days just for the regular season is grueling enough. Without the off season workouts, spring training and maybe the post season to factor in. That’s alot of time away from your babies.
kbarr888
Phoenix……..
It’s even more taxing than that……
Players have to workout and stay in shape all year long now. There’s no time for “kicking back” in the off-season. It’s really become a rigorous routine that happens in all 12 months. More throws, more swings, more grounders….than ever before. Failure to do that might result in a loss of Millions of Dollars.
Family time takes a hit all year….they just don’t travel as much in the winter.
kbarr888
Sid………..You are correct about his DL time. May 5, 2017 was “THE FIRST TIME” A-Gon ever went on the DL. He’s had back issues before, but never serious enough for a stint on the DL.
That being said, I believe that his career is probably over. Back issues as serious as his “don’t go away”. With Bellinger and Taylor coming into their own in 2017, there’s really no place to play him. He’d be a bench bat, and I’ll bet he chooses retirement over that (he pretty much said that a while back).
Great player in his day. Thank You For The Memories!
larry48
I think gonzales may retire, I dought if his back will ever be right again. By the way I have a bad back also just when u think its ok u pick something like a newspaper and hurt your back again.
metsoptimist
Poor Grandy (who’s still
36, btw 😉 ).
larry48
grandy was really bad both offensively and defensly. I don’t understand why he was even on rosrer against aroizina he had beeb bad since being traded to la.
jsaldi
Adrian Gonzalez will always be part of the dodger family. He contributed many productive seasons. Injuries and age took its toll
padreforlife
He’s the “Cooler” best for Dodgers and fans if he stays away.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Analytics in baseball work. They reflect reality.
Unfortunately, other sports (like hockey) that do not lend themselves to analytics well like baseball does got jealous and insisted on pretending their analytics were just as good.
The two NHL teams that went most heavy into them are now doormats. Arizona still hasn’t won a game. Florida had to rehire the hockey guy they fired after the sabremetrics guy bombed.
Baseball is a stop and start game. The pitch is always delivered from the same spot to the same spot. The number of variables (compared to other sports with far more moving parts) is low enough to allow numbers to tell most of the story. Just because baseball has analytics that work doesn’t mean other sports can or will.
chetmanley
This comment is suffering from an acute case of explosive small samplosis.
Plenty of Sabr guys lost their jobs after looking hapless in early baseball stints, too.
Ken In Sac
I hate to say this but Dusty would have had Curtis on the roster.
B_MAC
And had him hit 3rd in the line-up.