From an offensive standpoint, the Red Sox didn’t thrive in Year 1 of the post-David Ortiz era. While Boston finished 93-69 and won its second straight American League East title in 2017, the club wasn’t the hitting juggernaut it had been throughout Ortiz’s tenure from 2003-16. The Red Sox led the majors in runs scored six times during that 14-year span, including in 2016, and only landed outside the majors’ top 10 in runs and FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric one time apiece – in 2014, when they placed 18th and 25th in those categories.
This year’s Red Sox, whom Houston dismissed from the playoffs in a four-game ALDS, did cross the plate the 10th-most times in the league, but they fell to 22nd in wRC+ after the Ortiz-led outfit ranked first last season. The majority of the Red Sox’s regulars posted mediocre numbers at the plate, and according to Statcast’s xwOBA metric (via Baseball Savant), the only ones who outperformed their results were Mitch Moreland and Hanley Ramirez.
An Ortiz-esque thumper obviously would have been of use to the Red Sox this year, and it’s possible president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will attempt to find one in the offseason. That said, the vast majority of Boston’s position player group already looks settled for next year. Outfielders Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi, third baseman Rafael Devers, shortstop Xander Bogaerts, second baseman Dustin Pedroia and Ortiz’s DH successor, Ramirez, are locks. Sure, the Red Sox could stand to improve offensively behind the plate, where catchers Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon combined to rank a below-average 19th out of the majors’ 30 teams in wRC+, but each offered significant value in the pitch-framing department (per Baseball Prospectus). And with Jonathan Lucroy having fallen off in 2017, there don’t appear to be any surefire upgrades set to hit free agency next month.
While the aforementioned players are good bets to return to Boston next year, the status of center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. looks less certain. The Red Sox could trade the 27-year-old Bradley, who’s controllable for three more seasons, move Benintendi from left to center and reel in an offensive force such as J.D. Martinez or Justin Upton via free agency to join Beninendi and Betts in the grass. Martinez and Upton (if he opts out of his contract with the Angels) will come at much higher prices than Bradley, who will earn around $6MM in 2018, but the righty-swingers would likely mash at Fenway Park. And it’s worth noting that Dombrowski has already acquired Martinez in the past. When he was the Tigers’ general manager in 2014, Dombrowski took a flyer on the then-struggling Martinez.
Despite Dombrowski’s familiarity with Martinez, it’s possible the Red Sox will elect to stick with Bradley. Although he had a subpar year offensively, batting just .245/.323/.402 in 541 plate appearances, he was an easily above-average hitter the previous two seasons. Further, even if he doesn’t revisit his 2015-16 levels with the bat, Bradley’s still capable of providing surplus value in other ways. In fact, Bradley ranked third at his position in Defensive Runs Saved (nine) and seventh in Ultimate Zone Rating (4.2) in 2017. He also fared nicely on the bases, placing 11th in FanGraphs’ BsR metric. So, even in a down 2017, Bradley was still part of the overall solution for the Sox.
It’s up in the air whether Boston will have a new outfield alignment next year, whereas change at first base looks highly likely. Moreland is probably going to leave as a free agent, and the Red Sox don’t seem to have a ready-made replacement on hand. Prospect Sam Travis, 24, is fresh off an uninspiring year at Triple-A Pawtucket, where he hit for almost no power across 342 PAs (six home runs, .105 ISO), and didn’t distinguish himself during an 83-PA major league debut in Boston. The Red Sox would be hard pressed to count on him, then, which could point them toward free agency or the trade market for a first baseman.
Free agents-to-be Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, Jay Bruce and Yonder Alonso all had successful offensive seasons in 2017 and could land on Boston’s radar. On the other hand, Dombrowski has never been shy about making deals and is only a year removed from swinging a blockbuster with the rebuilding White Sox, who have a star first baseman and potential trade candidate in Jose Abreu. The soon-to-be 31-year-old Abreu and his two remaining seasons of team control would warrant a quality haul, but the right-handed slugger and Fenway Park would make for an enticing match.
Whether the Red Sox make a play for Abreu or another high-profile hitter over the winter, it does seem fair to expect an offensive upgrade to come in some form. What do you think Dombrowski will do?
(Poll link for App users)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dombrowski will probably trade prospects for a veteran slugger. That’s always been his MO anyway. Groome + Bradley to the ChiSox for Abreu or to the Marlins for Ozuna.
Of those two I would definitely prefer Ozuna, not sure I would part with Groome though
You probably wouldn’t have a choice as the Red Sox prospect cupboard is pretty bare.
That’s true, but There are other options than trading legit prospects
Here come the silly trade proposals. They aren’t trading Bradley and Groome for Abreu that is a silly trade proposal and big time overpay.
The Red Sox don’t need to panic firing Farrell was overreaction enough but could be foreseen because Farrell want his guy.
The Red Sox have a good team the real question is the down year by everyone on their offense real or will guys like Mookie, Xander, and JBJ bounce back next year. Did the absence of Big Papi expose the offense or is just a down year? Those are the questions that DD has to figure out before making any rush decisions to trade potential core pieces.
The Red Sox lost to a better team probably he team that is going to win he World Series this year let’s not panic too much.
How’s that an overpay?
It’s an overpay for Abreau not for Osuna. Trading for Osuna is complicated though.
we need power fast! Trade Bradley plus Travis and 2prospect for Marcell Ozuna (Lf)and Justin Bour(1b) from the Marlins!Benitendi (cf) Hanley (dh)
Bogart(ss),Peddy(2b),Bour(1b),Ozuna(Lf)Betts(rf)Hanley(dh)Devers(3b)Benitendi(cf) Vasquez ( c)! Let Holt go and sing Nunéz
you are never pulling that off. Travis is a C level prospect. JBJ would be a major league contributor in the deal, for Ozuna & Bour – you need to add a few very good prospects. No one is out here trying to help the Red Sox win.
Ok!! You have any idea Mrs.sal?Or DD should sing JD Martinez is a free agent and Carlos Santana !! Then trade Bradley for a catcher
LOL. Bradley and Groome could possibly get Ozuna, MIA will certainly ask for more. You think Bradley, Travis, and another prospect will get Ozuna and Bour?
Ok put Groome and Owen plus Marrero Bradley-Travis-Castillo for Ozuna-Bour plus sing Welington Castillo the catcher i thingt his a frre agent
Nope
Nope?? What???
Travis has no real value and JBJ can’t hit…
The sox have much bigger needs than Catcher. They will continue with Vazquez and Leon and hope Vazquez continues to hit at a decent clip which is unlikely but either way they are fine behind the plate
Nice try
Two years of Marcell Ozuna alone is worth more than three more arbitration years of the older Jackie Bradley Jr.. The addition of three years of Justin Bour makes the proposed deal lopsided … even the top Red Sox prospects can’t even out the trade.
Or trade Bradley-Groome plus 2 C prospects for Ozuna and sing Santana 56/4 years! There you have power and Hanley full time Dh
Why would the Marlins need Bradley? If they are trading Osuna, wouldn’t they want someone back who has more control? Or do your trades only have to make sense from the Red Sox side?
Trader Dave will empty the tank of the Pawsox. He will layer in a few younger Boston players and accept taking on heavy duty salaries.
Does anyone smell a reunion with Miggy?
Just you, I suspect.
I think just hoping from rebounds from X and Betts, plus adding an actual DH that won’t break the bank is what they should do.
I think Bogearts peaked early. Unless they get a big slugger in there, lineup will struggle
Bogearts was hit in the hand and came back waaayy too early. That’s why his numbers fell off. Last year he peaked early.
I think you have no basis to make that claim. He has morphed quite a bit over his relatively short MLB career so far, and at just age 25 next year it’s highly likely he will continue to evolve. Certainly he MIGHT have peaked, but there is no firm reason to believe that.
Re-hashing Canfardo’s nonsense article from yesterday? The Red Sox have repeatedly said they are going to get back under the luxury tax this year.. Tell me how that happens if they sign Upton or Martinez? I think HiFlew nailed it.. They will trade Bradley (and more if needed) for the power bat they need so badly.. Like I said yesterday, I really like a Bradley/Price for Schwarber/Heyward trade with the Cubs.. When Ramirez leaves next year Schwarber could slide right into the DH spot. Price would replace Arrieta and would hopefully return to his old self under Maddon. Seems like a win for both teams..
Also, why not just stick Ramirez back at 1st next year and trade for someone like Matt Kemp? I know he wasn’t great there last year but he was at least passable. Kemp’s bat seems taylor made for Fenway and if anyone needs a full time DH job, it’s him.. Atlanta would probably let Boston have him for next to nothing..
Pretty sure 2017 was the year they were going to get under the “cap”
Pretty sure the red sox have changed their minds on spending before i.e spending huge on Crawford-gonzo and then needing to get under the cap or claiming 7 year deals are bad for business and signing price.
As for that trade it looks terrible from a red sox perspective Bradley still has value with the glove and is an average hitter @ his worst schwarber gives nothing(right now) and Hayward and price are both washes to me.
They stayed under the cap this year, so all taxes are reset for offseason moves. They also will be allowed to have full international money, since the penalty of going over the cap is also over
Well (sigh). They can always go after Mark Reynolds.
Much of the offensive woes is simply due to a down year. Like it said in the article, only Hanley Ramirez and Mitch Moreland performed above the statcast model. That means that everyone else was either ‘neutral’ or ‘unlucky’. By simply doing nothing should see an uptick in their offense.
The only part of the article that I fully agree with is that the Red Sox could sign or trade for a premium 1B.
Funny that this got three downvotes…sometimes teams have “down” years, and that was very likely the case last year. Moreland was just a stopgap and rarely hit good pitching, so 1B is a strong area of potential improvement, but that’s about it. Organic improvement can be, and should be, the main recipe.
If you want an Ortiz-esque power threat, why trade for Ozuna? Move Hanley to 1B and trade for Stanton. Trade Bradley if you don’t want to regularly shuffle the OF. Red Sox have the pieces to make it happen, and even though it sets them over the luxury threshold for a while, that’s a tradeoff they have to deal with if they want the big bat.
BOS has a thin farm after DD demolished it in trades. Trading for someone like Stanton will require ML players and just create other holes.
Lazy. The main reason the Boston farm system is “demolished” is because its prospects have developed into contributors or returned contributors to the team…which is what it is supposed to do. Should Boston have just left Betts and Benintendi and Bogaerts and Devers in the minors and held on to dear life for the likes of Margot and Moncada just to have an elite farm system?
Reality: Boston has one of the most appealing collection of young MLB core players thanks to its recent strong farm system. Thanks to it being so productive and efficient at getting the best talents MLB ready, it will have to go through a restocking period now…but it also won’t need as many contributions from the farm as usual for teams for at least a couple of years thanks to that success.
Or, you could just be a toad and present everything about the team in the most negative way possible, that’s always fair!
Well put, the prospects they have kept for the most part panned out, gave up Moncada kept Devers even though Moncada rated much higher Looks like a good move so far. Time will tell but Devers has progressed while Moncada has struggled with certain pitches and I think is older. When we traded Anderson Espinoza , we beat the Red Sox up for, but then his pitching fell apart and then he needed tommy John surgery. We gave up Manny Margo and kept Benintendi who came out of nowhere. I mean we have added Sale and Kimble None of the prospects we have traded has made a major impact in the big leagues. And the cubbards are not bare we still have talent in the system. Michael Chavis 3b with Power 31hr .282 former #1 pick sweet breakout playing 1b and 3b in Arizona fall So maybe we keep him , Daniel. Flores high end international C added , Pitchers Mata and draft pick Houck both could be dangled at some point. Plus we have several prospects who would be top ten in several orgs. Beeks, Dalbec, CJ Chatham , Meeks etc.. All have some trade value Plus a few others. So the system is not illegal but they’re still in the top half of the league and we have made the right moves with our prospects keeping the good ones and dealing the hype projectsWe need a big bat . Sign JD Martinez trade for an OF or 1B/DH Power bat Stanton whose money will drive down asking price. Abreau Who will be out of Chicago before they are ready to contend so why not flip him?
Depends. If Miami really wants to get rid of that contract, they also can’t ask for the moon as far as prospects go. Bradley, Groome and a few other guys would need to go. Maybe Hanley as he is on a much shorter deal that will expire much before Stanton and makes much less money.
Hanley…You Can’t Be Serious..
Hanley wood matchup salary wise. Miami has to take something back and it’s only a year or two.
They’ll never take Hanley back no matter the bait..you guys forget his previous tenure..
You forget Stanton’s contract is
TEN MORE YEARS. Tough pill to swallow, you need to take Hanley’s two years left at least.
Ridiculous. Too many other teams are going to offer good prospect packages for the Marlins to take on unwanted salary.
You’ve got to throw a veteran in there plus the prospects.
No way anybody takes all that salary with only minimum money going back.
Miami will have to eat a huge chunk of money in that case.
The easiest way Boston can improve its offense? Have the quality talent already there play up to its ability. Losing Ortiz was always going to put some hit on the offense, but the 2016 Red Sox didn’t have a full season of Benintendi (who, you know, likely will be even better next year after a solid rookie season) and a good amount of Devers in it either. The drop was CLEARLY due by FAR to worse performances by the returning players, which can happen year to year, so the offense can “fix” itself by rebounds and/or growth by young players (lest you forget, most of the Boston lineup is at the stage of their careers in which they are still getting better).
It’s called lineup protection and that’s what Big Papi provided. Without a Big Bopper You can pitch properly to these slap hitters and production goes down naturally
Research has shown over and over that there is no such thing as “lineup protection”. Intuitively, it feels like it exists, which is why so many people think it does (and why you got three ups for your incorrect comment), but it doesn’t.
Now, I think it IS true that a deep lineup helps improve everyone in it, due to wearing out opposing pitching…but that is about quality across the board, not any one or two big bopper. Boston had multiple assorted unproductive holes in its lineup at different times for all of last year, so that was a problem.
The only major hitter in the Boston lineup who hits like a “slap” hitter is Bogaerts. Yes, there aren’t many “loft” hitters, but most of the guys in there are laser-line-drive types.
Don’t want to be cynical, but let us know whether after reading your post we can cheer standing up or just stay in our seats.
Isn’t it just a possible that Bradley, Bogarts, et all might just be exactly what you are seeing in 2017 and that any previous success was the illusion and abnormal?
Objectively you would have to look at it both ways and decide whats best for the ball club rather than trying to convince yourself otherwise.
Burn…
Exactly. You might have to get rid of one or two of those underperformers for an improved player.
Hopefully those that stay will have some of their numbers back to 2016 levels. Fingers crossed.
If you’re going to be insulting, I have to call out your comment for being as dumb as it is.
I didn’t say the players WOULD rebound; I said that the offense “broke” primarily due to players underperforming (rather than players lost), and so looking for a rebound is the most natural path to “fixing” the offense. The offense did great in 2016, and that was because most of the players who returned in 2017 had better years then (and of course Ortiz helped). If almost everyone in your lineup underperforms, guess what? Your overall lineup will too. I didn’t offer any assurances that the rebound “will” happen, but if you have a bad year because of underperformances you can probably look for things to go back the other way.
Sure, you can try to make sweeping changes, but that isn’t easy to do, and can easily backfire, as it did when Boston made a mini overhaul by signing Sandoval and Ramirez a few years back. Sandoval especially was supposed to be a simple plug-and-play improvement at 3B, and it didn’t happen. Sometimes (often), you’re better off letting the talent have a chance to come back around than you are making changes for the sake of change.
All I was OBJECTIVELY saying is that I think leaving the lineup mostly alone would likely have the best chance for success. I didn’t say “DERP, the lineup is full of talent, it’ll be great next year DERP”, and you show your own lack of objectivity by somehow seeing something like that in my comment. Please learn to read better.
Two consecutive years Bogarts had down second half’s. Unless he gets stronger, he cannot sustain everyday playing without additional rest
Pull the trigger on Stanton.
Powders wet..lol
Would LOVE Stanton but not at full price.
Trade for kennys vargas and give him a shot !
What would he cost? I’d like to try it out not as the main piece of the offseason but just to see what he’s got given his potential.
If your going to trade Bradley and Groome they better be in a package for Stanton!
Clearly im a red sox fan but you are saying a package of JBJ, groome, chavis and then lets just say a sam travis wont some what be close to getting stanton
If you truly believe an organization will say no to a GG defensive player with 3 years of arb eligibility with a streaky bat plus a high level pitching prospect with a top 10 3rd base prospect when they are dumping 10 years of a player when they already claimed they want under 90mill salary
I obviously want the red sox to not lose on a deal but JbJ is not awful like its at least really getting the marlins attention on that one
That offer should get the Red Sox Stanton.
Idk I mean I’m a Sox fan but I honestly can’t say that would be enough given what was sent out for sale, even with the huge salary i think the overall talent would require more star potential if you compare it to what DD gave up for sale, which would most likely run the farm just about dry. But that’s just my take.
Salary is way different with sale I’d honestly be surprised to see a trade get that much for even Stanton given the salary demands. And you kinda can’t compare a pitcher with no free agent comps available when there are offensive free agents like j.d Martinez who should be cheaper on both fronts (prospect/salary commitment)
I prefere a trade wt Florida for Ozuna and then sing Santana! Move Benitendi to center field!Hanley dh-Santana 1b
No idea what the Red Sox will do, but I, for one, hope they hang on to JBJ. Best defensive outfielder in the league. I want JBJ in CF stealing doubles in the gap and saving walk off home runs and gunning down base runners. He is so much more valuable than most people understand.
Benitendi will do the job!! We need power there and in first base!!
The drop off in center won’t be that significant defensively it’s the drop off in left that is sure to drop. As previous red sox left fielders have shown it’s not a big deal as long as there hitting and not Hanley Ramirez bad defensively.