We’ve heard varying suggestions on just how much money soon-to-be free agent Eric Hosmer may be seeking, or may command, on the open market. That’ll all be sorted out when the negotiations start in earnest, but it’s fun to begin thinking about it now.
We’re now just a few weeks away now from the start of free agency, after all. First, the Royals will issue a qualifying offer — which will be at a $17.4MM rate. Hosmer, inevitably, will reject it, making him a free agent just weeks after his 28th birthday.
By now, Hosmer’s broad profile is well-known. The former third overall draft pick played in all 162 games this year, slashing a robust .318/.385/.498 and banging 25 home runs for the second consecutive season. That’s quite a bit more than he has produced previously, though Hosmer has had other solid seasons at the plate.
The question teams will be asking is whether there’s reason to believe that Hosmer can maintain that level of output. He rode a .351 batting average on balls in play in 2017, steadily outpacing his .316 career rate. And Hosmer has stayed within the same general K/BB range as ever, while continuing to put the ball on the ground over half the time. His hard-hit rate dropped below thirty percent for the first time since his debut season. When he did put the ball in the air, it went out of the park over twenty percent of the time for the second consecutive season, though it’s still fair to wonder whether that’s sustainable.
There are other factors, too, of course. Hosmer is no longer a double-digit annual stolen base threat and hasn’t always drawn strong reviews from baserunning metrics. Likewise, defensive metrics have never matched his generally positive reputation with the glove. In these areas, perhaps, Hosmer’s reputation outpaces what some of the numbers say — as a result, he hasn’t even yet cracked 10 fWAR over his career — although these are among the most controversial areas of sabermetric analysis.
Perhaps the most interesting concept, though, is the idea that Hosmer delivers value that outpaces his direct, on-the-field contributions. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star just published an interesting, though eminently arguable look at the evident position that super-agent Scott Boras intends to take on the matter this fall. Most intriguingly, Boras is said to be readying for an attempt at quantifying the ways in which Hosmer’s halo adds value by producing “a metric on intangibles.”
Mellinger cites an executive that thinks Boras will be looking for something like $20MM annually on a decade-long term. That’s quite an ask for a first baseman with the stat line of Hosmer’s — particularly in a day and age when a far superior hitter such as Edwin Encarnacion can only get $20MM over three years (albeit at a significantly older age) and with a number of other quality bats available in free agency.
Plenty of less-than-amazing batters have taken down big money over long terms, though typically such players were expected to deliver significant value in the field and on the bases. Jason Heyward, for example, got $184MM over eight years (plus two opt out opportunities). But Heyward was only 26 and was one of the game’s most valued defenders. Oh, and he also carried a lifetime 118 wRC+ to that point — clearly superior to Hosmer’s 111 wRC+ career mark, though the latter did have the bigger offensive platform season.
We aren’t going to get a sneak peek at Boras’s binder. But Mellinger lays out the broad case for Hosmer to out-earn his prior productivity:
But consider this. The Royals built their success, in large part, on intangibles. How much did they talk about clubhouse friendships, of bonds formed in the minor leagues, and of the joy they found in playing for each other?
For argument’s sake, let’s assume that was overstated, and that the parade happened because of athleticism and relief pitching more than anything else. But you can’t have watched the Royals’ rise without believing the other stuff had a part in it, too. The resiliency in the comebacks, the consistent performance in the biggest moments.
The Royals had a parade because of these things, the team welcoming in record attendance and interest.
Shouldn’t the players be rewarded, too?
Do you buy that? Even a little? How do you value it? And how do you value the stat line you expect Hosmer to put up? Rolling it all together, just how much will he be worth on the open market? (App users can click here for the poll.)
ba2929
Hosmer’s going to get something like 6 years, $110 million from someone. That’s my prediction.
Not sure what team is going to give him that (not the Royals), but someone will.
CompanyAssassin
I don’t think it’ll be quite as high as people think (6y/120M+), but I think it’ll be a 5y/85-90M deal.
Solaris601
Based on the down market for 1B, I think you’re right. If Hosmer were a batting champion, different story. Hosmer will set the 1B market, and Santana will follow right behind.
CompanyAssassin
Yeah, that’s how I figured it.
beauvandertulip
Yeah, could be a 5/100 wouldn’t surprise me, I’m more on the boat of 4-6 year contract for him.
JKB 2
4-6 years is a big range. If you want to give him 4 then going 6 is way too long
ffjsisk
7/140 just because he’s 28. Someone will overpay based on age and projected prime/longevity i.e. Heyward.
southi
Let them over pay. I’m fairly certain that they’ll regret it before the end of his contract.
beauvandertulip
They didn’t over pay for EE. I mean yeah he’s older. But holds more offensive value.
southi
Oh the EE signing was actually slightly under what I expected. Very good team friendly value for a consistently above average hitter.
bluejays12345
Yep you are right. He is young-ish
Kris Higdon
Hosmer’s clubhouse presence and intangibles are more valuable to the Royals than any other team. I absolutely love Hosmer, but other teams aren’t going to pay more his friendship with current Royals.
How in the heck can his base running metrics not be off the charts? He is one of the smartest base runners in the game. His sprint in Game 5 was an example of what he did every day on the base paths. I can see why the defensive metrics might not be as splashy as he appears on the field, but his base running is exceptional
AcaciaStrain
Well, first he’s not very fast, which matters and secondly he hits into a lot of double plays (which is a part of baserunning).
Phillies2017
Here’s the thing. The market for first basemen has been poor in recent offseasons and this offseason its very congested (Hosmer, Morrison, Santana, Duda, Moreland, Reynolds, Carter, Alonso).
Obviously Hosmer gets the most money here, but even with Boras, the leverage really isnt quite there for him to get $100m especially with a QO. I think he signs a 4-yr deal worth around $80m in like January or February that may have an opt-out after 2. Obviously Boras is going to try to hold out, but based on past big contracts to first basemen and Hosmers track record, I believe they’re going to have to settle once they see all the holes being filled by the cheaper guys.
This year, as with last year, the winning players will sign in November and the winning teams will sign in February. The fact that Boras has been known to hold out might hurt here.
Using an example
Last season Kendrys Morales (.795 OPS) signed a 3-year/$33,000,000 deal with the Jays on November 18th. Mark Reynolds (.805 OPS) signed a Minor League Deal that paid him $1.5m with the Rockies on February 2nd. You can cite Coors all you want but a player with an .805 OPS (probably .775 elsewhere) is not worth $31,500,000 less than one with a .795 OPS. Its all about when you sign.
Coast1
Among 1B, Hosmer was 5th in fWAR at 4..1, Morrison 11th at 3.3, Santana 12th at 3.0, and Alonso 15th at 2.4. That’s the big competition. Who is looking for a 1B? The Indians? Porbably. The Red Sox? Maybe. The Rangers? They may play Gallo there. The Rays? Possibly but they don’t pay big. The Angels? Maybe, although they may want Pujols back there. They don’t have a ton The Royals? Maybe, although they might not be looking to add an older player.
I don’t see the Red Sox willing to go that high on a 1B and the Indians aren’t going to go higher than the $60 million they went on Encarnacion. The market is going to be really limited. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets less than $50 million.
southi
I don’t expect less than $50 million, but I did think less than $75 million for the very reasons that you listed.
Coast1
In today’s market being an infielder who plays one position is going to limit a player unless he’s a superstar like Machado. The problem for guys like Hosmer is they are limited to teams that can afford a top tier 1B and need them. If he’s willing to take $12 million a year there are a lot more suitors than $20 million. Mark Trumbo got 3 years $36 last year. Hosmer is certainly better than him, but they need two bidders to get the price up. If the price is high the Red Sox can turn to Santana or Morrison.
The Royals showed with Alex Gordon that they’re willing to bid against themselves for their own players. Gordon was expected to get over $100 million. When no market emerged he took $72 million to stay. I think the Royals might give Hosmer more than anyone and that could push him up to $80 million. If they’re not willing it could go under $50 million. I think $50-$75 million is more likely.
While maybe 5 teams need a starting first baseman, every team needs 5 starting pitchers. So there’ll always be plenty of demand for starters. So they’ll get some good money.
baseball10
5 guaranteed with 6th yr option/buyout. Between 100-125 mil
stepupjays
It will be 5 Years 110 million
kbarr888
That’s a ridiculous number for Hosmer. If he gets over 100 M…….it’ll be for 6 years minimum.
oldleftylong
Giants
Jean Matrac
Why would the Giants sign Hosmer? He’s similar but not quite as good as Belt. The Giant’s bought out one arb year for $4m and got 4 FA years for less than $70m. Hosmer will be more expensive that that. Why pay more for someone not as good?.
nyy42
Belt absolutely stinks! Terrible
Jeff Todd
I genuinely don’t understand why people hold this opinion. He has clearly been a better hitter than Hosmer over their careers. What am I missing?
OverUnderDone
You have to watch Belt play every day. If you put stock in the intangibles, Belt has few. Definitely not a leader or a motivational guy.
Advanced metrics love him. But his value is inflated by a very high OBP. The guy is an extremely selective hitter. He loves to walk. He absolutely, positively will NOT expand his zone in a RBI situation.
He is very, very streaky. When hot, he is torrid. When cold, he disappears. And I mean he will be a black hole in the lineup for a month and a half.
Can’t blame hime for it, but he’s on his fourth concussion, missing the last two months of 2017 to his latest.
The Giants (dead last in the MLB in virtually every power metric) desperately need Belt to step up and SWING THE BAT. Never going to happen.
Belt could be a very solid piece on some AL team where he could hide way down in the lineup, 7th or 8th place. He might thrive with very little pressure.
Ask any Giant fan who he’d prefer at 1st, Belt or Hosmer. It’s not even close.
cygnus2112
Nailed it and a very similar walk friendly profile like Matt Carpenter…
Coast1
Fans have a lot of reasons for liking a player that might not have anything to do with performance. They’d prefer a player who hustles over one who doesn’t, even if the guy who hustles is demonstrably worse. Some don’t like bat flips or streaky hitters.
Belt has 4 years and $69 million left on his deal. He’s a nice player but not great. As the discussion in this thread should show not many teams need a 1B. Tampa might want him, but are they going to pay a 1B $17 million a year? Will a team give up anything for Belt when they can sign Morrison, Santana, or Alonso for less money and not give up anything?
There might not be any who are willing to take his whole contract. The Giants could end up paying Hosmer $21 million a year and another $5 million of Belt’s deal. That doesn’t sound better.
According to Baseball Reference the Giants will have a payroll of $192 million even if they make no changes. That’s in luxury tax territory. They need to make moves where they’re saving money, not spending more.
jdgoat
How do you know he isn’t a leader?
black69
Okay, so Brandon Belt isn’t quite the same type of profile as Hosmer. Maybe you’re right, maybe Hosmer is better. But is his added value enough to justify benching Buster Posey on the days you don’t want him catching? All year, you heard how Posey was having a down year….well, he was worth 4.0 WAR. He played like 40 games at first. He’s played exactly 151 over the last 5 seasons.
Are you willing to pay Hosmer 20 million over the life of his contract to take his bat out of the lineup for 1 full season?
Solaris601
Couldn’t agree more. I didn’t understand why they extended him at the time, and I understand it even less now. Belt would be a great fit in a team like Tampa, but the Giants are absolutely gonna have to pay down his contract some to get any team to take him UNLESS SF takes on a bad contract in exchange. They might be able to somehow work him into a Stanton deal with Miami.
TLB2001
If he gets 4/$80m, it’ll be from Kansas City. Only way he walks is if he gets PAID.
ilikebaseball 2
6/105 and in two years that team will regret it.
Kris Higdon
I hope you guys saying that range are right because if $100-110 million is what he signs for it will be with the Royals.
Not sure why they would regret signing a 28 year old moving into the prime of his career.
BoldyMinnesota
Because he’s the most inconsistent player in the league. He has never had back to back good seasons
luvbeisbol
Hosmer’s a nice player, but he’s a first baseman. He’s not that hard to replace. If EE can’t get big bucks, he won’t either. He may end up with a one year pillow contract, for $20M or so, He’s young but no one is going to pay him long term: who wants to own a 35 year old first baseman in decline? Ask Detroit, LA Angels, Orioles, Twins, He’s not as good as Votto or Goldschmidt. The Yankees, of all people, are showing the world how to resist free agents and find inexpensive young players. No thanks.
kbarr888
Agree fully……but would further clarify your point that Hosmer “Is NOTHING Like Votto or Goldy……Not even CLOSE”.
If anyone suggests that he’s even in the same Tier as those two…..they need medication!……LOL
Brixton
is “too much” an option?
Meatloaf rulz
The big factor to me is that he has alway played in a pitchers park, ok, half his games. I do t care what you say but that does play a factor
Jeff Todd
That’s reflected in park-adjusted measures of offensive production. He has a 111 wRC+ for his career (as I noted in the post) and a 135 mark this level.
Caseys Partner
Four years for $60 million.
halos101
Has to be around the 100 million mark, but honestly what is the market for him? I don’t see any perfect suitors
bbcatt
3 years 66 million max. I’d never go longer on a guy who’s approaching age 30. Never.
JS11
5/75 and lucky to get it
gomerhodge71
Only topped 20 HRs the past two seasons. Good/Very good but not great. Five years tops. I’m calling 5/90-95.
tomahawkin2010
Seeing as he is a Boras client, he will be commanding top dollar. He will be presenting to prospective suitors the “Overall production” scenario, which includes Offensive Production, Defensive Metrics, Baserunning Metrics, Clubhouse Leadership Leadership, etc. when he speaks to clubs. I would expect a 4-5 yr deal at $100-$120 package. Someone will pay that, but it will come at a price of a draft pick, as he’s expected to reject the Qualifying Offer.
RKinKC
I think the Royals will try hard to re-sign Hosmer, and will probably get it done if his AAV stays south of $20 million. They have a new TV contract coming after 2019 and could possibly try to back-load the deal a bit.
Paul Miller
If Boston wants Hosmer, expect Dombrowski to pay north of $150. Overpaying is what he’s really good at.
bradthebluefish
Dombrowski overpays because Mike Ilitch would always give him the green light to do so. Outside of Price, who else did Dombrowski overpay for in Boston?
jdgoat
He’s also only been around for what, two offseasons? Being happy he’s only given out 1 albatross in two years isn’t all that great
Paul Miller
Given his history of great signings in Detroit like Fielder, Martinez, Sanchez, Cabrera extension, there is still plenty of time for him to do that in Boston. So you’ll see!
Yes, that’s history but you’re already seeing what he’s doing to the farm system and he’s repeating that in his trader Dave ways.
Paul Miller
Even if it’s just one big signing so far with Boston, it was a massive overpay that was going to look really bad at some point. Unfortunately it happened at year 1 which I don’t fault Dave for that. Everyone thought Price would be Price at least a few years into the contract. But it was a great risk regardless.
jqks
What I wonder about is how high the Royals will be willing to go to hold on to him. I do not expect they will match bids if they go over $100M, but I do wonder if they would be willing to go as high as 6/100 before stepping away. I think Hos will give the Royals a home-town discount if the Royals are willing to stay within reasonable range of his market.
I think $100M is an over-pay, but I do like Hos and hell, it ain’t my money. I pretty well hate the whole Glass family and would rather see more of their money in Hos’ account and him at Kauffman for another 5 or 6 years than leave it in Glass’ bank vault.
Benklasner
I really think he stays in KC and does the whole career with one team thing despite all the Boras talk. That said I think the royals will overpay him.
mike156
Are we actually going to have a Boras-designed metric for Halo Factor? Is that like hugs-above replacement?
912boy
Dayton Moore,Moose to Braves I can smell it coming. If we didn’t have a great first baseman Hosmer could come too
seanwh01
Hoz to KC
Dayton to Atlanta
Moose to the Angels
Done.