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The 2017 season was the 16th in a row that ended after Game 162 for the Mariners, who finished 78-84 to extend their major league-worst playoff drought. A series of injuries to integral performers contributed to Seattle’s woes this year, though, leaving general manager Jerry Dipoto and CEO John Stanton optimistic that a healthier Mariners club could make a postseason push in 2018. But first, Dipoto will spend the next few months working to build a better roster than the one he constructed heading into the 2017 campaign.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Robinson Cano, 2B: $144MM through 2023
- Kyle Seager, 3B: $74.5MM through 2021
- Jean Segura, SS: $67MM through 2023
- Felix Hernandez, SP: $54.7MM through 2019
- Mike Leake, SP: $36MM through 2021
- Nelson Cruz, DH: $14MM through 2018
- Marc Rzepczynski, RP: $5.5MM through 2018
Contract Options
- Yovani Gallardo, SP: $13MM club option or $2MM buyout
- Hisashi Iwakuma, SP: $10MM club option or $1MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- David Phelps (5.156) – $5.8MM
- Drew Smyly (5.154) – $6.85MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (4.158) – $4.7MM
- Nick Vincent (4.067) – $2.7MM
- Mike Zunino (3.161) – $3.2MM
- James Paxton (3.151) – $5.6MM
- Shae Simmons (3.111) – $700K
- Non-tender candidates: Smyly
Free Agents
[Mariners Depth Chart; Mariners Payroll Information]
As you’d expect, injuries weren’t the lone culprit for the Mariners’ sub-.500 finish this year. However, they did play a big part in the Mariners’ weakest aspect – their starting staff. Entering the season, the plan was for James Paxton, Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and winter trade acquisitions Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo to eat up the lion’s share of innings from the M’s rotation. Instead, the quintet combined for a mere 368 1/3 frames – roughly 73 apiece – and Paxton was the sole standout when he actually took the mound. Arm problems prevented the promising Smyly from pitching at all, and after undergoing Tommy John surgery in July, he looks like a surefire non-tender. Iwakuma also had an abbreviated year, making just six starts and amassing 31 innings, and is now recovering from September shoulder surgery. He’ll receive his walking papers in the form of a buyout, as will Gallardo, who pitched to a bloated ERA (5.73) over 130 2/3 innings spent between the rotation and bullpen.
While three-fifths of their planned rotation from 2017 is on the cusp of exiting, the Mariners still have three locks to win starting spots next season. Paxton is the unquestioned ace, a distinction that went to Hernandez before him. King Felix has fallen off dramatically over the past couple seasons, but the superstar-type money left on the soon-to-be 32-year-old’s contract and his full no-trade clause indicate he’s not going anywhere. And then there’s Mike Leake, whom the Mariners acquired from the Cardinals in an end-of-August trade. While Leake was tremendous down the stretch with his new team (2.53 ERA, 2.25 FIP in 32 innings), the elite-caliber production he logged during that small sample is an aberration relative to his career. Still, even if Leake regresses toward his lifetime output next season (3.98 ERA, 4.12 FIP), the longtime innings eater will still give the Mariners a durable mid-rotation type. There’s plenty of value in that for a team whose innings leader in 2017 was Ariel Miranda, a back-end starter who accrued 158 frames. Leake hasn’t thrown fewer innings than that in a season since his rookie year, 2010, when he racked up 138 1/3.
It’s unclear what the Mariners’ rotation will look like beyond Paxton, Hernandez and Leake next year, though Dipoto declared earlier this month that he’s satisfied with the “depth” and “quality” on hand. With Erasmo Ramirez, Andrew Moore, Andrew Albers, Ariel Miranda and Marco Gonzales around, the Mariners will go into 2018 with several in-house candidates for the final two sports in their rotation. It’s not the most confidence-inspiring group, however, which means it would behoove the Mariners to seek outside upgrades.
Considering the Mariners lack even a mid-tier farm system, putting together a trade for a controllable, young starter may be unrealistic. But they could add one in free agency if Japanese sensation Shohei Otani immigrates to the majors, as he’s expected to do. Thanks to the international spending limitations in the new collective bargaining agreement, the 23-year-old ace/slugger figures to have all 30 teams vying for his services should he reach the market. The amount of competition will make it especially difficult for any team to reel in Otani, then, but Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune did report earlier this month that Seattle plans to aggressively pursue him.
It may not affect the Otani chase, but it’s still worth noting that the Mariners have had success picking up Japanese talent in the past, having added Iwakuma, future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki and Kazuhiro Sasaki. Unlike any of those players, Otani comes with the unique ability to make an impact both on the mound and with his bat. Otani will primarily serve as a pitcher if he comes to the majors, but he’s likely to sign with a team that will give him the ability to showcase his offensive skills. As an American League club, the Mariners theoretically have a leg up on half of the majors because they can offer Otani at-bats as a designated hitter. Of course, with Nelson Cruz entrenched at DH for another year, Otani probably wouldn’t have a chance to do much at the plate until 2019 if he chooses the Mariners.
Aside from Otani, the premier impending free agent starters will include Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and, if he opts out of his contract with the Yankees, Masahiro Tanaka. Otani happens to idolize Darvish, setting up the possibility of those two going somewhere as a sort of package deal. The problem for Seattle, if it tries to go after Darvish, Arrieta or Tanaka, is that it doesn’t seem to have the financial wiggle room to make a big splash. While the Mariners’ payroll does have “room for growth,” according to Stanton, it’s unclear how much more they’re willing to spend after opening 2017 with a franchise-record $154MM in commitments. Regardless, the vast majority of the Mariners’ 2018 money is already spoken for, with a handful of veterans on large contracts and several more due raises in arbitration. The Mariners could still get creative in order to sign Darvish, as John Truplin of Lookout Landing wrote this week, but doing so would make it tough for them to adequately address other problems on the roster.
As with Darvish, Arrieta and Tanaka, signing a second-tier starter such as Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb may also prove too costly. But there will be some other potentially useful options on the market at lesser prices, including hard-throwing, groundball-inducing Tyler Chatwood, former Mariners Doug Fister, Jason Vargas and Chris Tillman, and Jaime Garcia, to name a few.
While a major addition to the Mariners’ rotation at least looks somewhat possible, albeit unlikely, their bullpen probably doesn’t need one. The Mariners’ relievers only earned modest rankings in ERA (13th) and fWAR (15th) this year, but Edwin Diaz, Nick Vincent, Emilio Pagan, Tony Zych, Marc Rzepczynski and James Pazos are either shoo-ins or strong bets to factor into their Opening Day plans next season. And with no minor league options remaining for Ramirez or Gonzales, at least one could end up in the bullpen if beginning the year from the rotation doesn’t prove to be in the cards. Beyond those names, Shae Simmons, Dan Altavilla, Ryan Garton and Thyago Vieira are also among those in the organization who could push for big league relief roles.
Similarly, the majority of the Mariners’ position player group is locked in going into next year. Cruz, second baseman Robinson Cano, third baseman Kyle Seager, shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Mitch Haniger and catcher Mike Zunino will be integral pieces again. They’re going to need complements at first base and in the outfield, though.
Going by fWAR (minus-0.7), nobody was worse off at first this year than Seattle, but soon-to-be free agent Danny Valencia’s lackluster output was the primary reason for that. On the other hand, August acquisition Yonder Alonso fared decently (.265/.353/.439 in 150 plate appearances), though he’s also scheduled to hit free agency. He and the Mariners are interested in working out a new deal, per Greg Johns of MLB.com; failing that, the club could look elsewhere to a free agent market that will include first base types ranging from expensive to reasonably priced in Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, ex-Mariner Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda and Mitch Moreland. Alternatively, Dipoto may go his signature route – the trade market – for help, with the Braves’ Matt Adams standing out as a possible mover who wouldn’t require much in return.
Some of those names, including the lefty-swinging Alonso, aren’t all that effective against same-handed pitchers. Perhaps it would make sense, then, to bring back the right-handed Valencia as a platoon first baseman, given how well he has performed versus southpaws in his career (.313/.370/.493 in 994 PAs). Otherwise, Mike Napoli, Mark Reynolds, Matt Holliday and Jose Bautista are fellow righty-hitting free agents with the potential to fill that role, though Reynolds is the only member of the group who isn’t coming off a poor season.
Meanwhile, it’s anyone’s guess who will join Haniger to comprise the Mariners’ starting outfield. It’s also to be determined whether Haniger will line up at his typical 2017 spot – right field – or shift to center. Whether that happens could depend on the future of center fielder Jarrod Dyson, arguably the Mariners’ best free agent-to-be. While Dyson will turn 34 next August and doesn’t bring any power to the table, his defensive and baserunning prowess – not to mention his respectable on-base skills – combine to give him a high-floor skillset. Injuries limited Dyson to 111 games and 390 PAs in 2017, his first year as a Mariner, but he still managed upward of 2.0 fWAR for the fourth time in a half-decade. Dyson’s clearly a valuable player, one who’s not going to break the bank this winter, so re-upping him on a short-term deal may be in Seattle’s best interest. If Dyson walks, though, the Mariners will have to replace someone who was easily the leading defender and baserunner on the team in 2017 (notably, despite Dyson’s excellence, the M’s finished toward the bottom of the majors’ in FanGraphs’ BsR metric).
Lorenzo Cain, one of Dyson’s former teammates in Kansas City, will be the premier center fielder available in free agency, but he’s also poised to haul in one of the offseason’s richest paydays. Fellow center fielders Carlos Gomez, Jon Jay, Cameron Maybin and former Mariner Austin Jackson won’t cost nearly as much as Cain, though Dyson is arguably more appealing than each of those four. As for center field-capable trade candidates, there’s Christian Yelich (Marlins), Marcell Ozuna (Marlins), Billy Hamilton (Reds), Keon Broxton (Brewers) and Randal Grichuk (Cardinals). The Mariners probably don’t have the prospect capital to win a bidding war for either Yelich or Ozuna, however, and Hamilton, Broxton and Grichuk all posted sub-.300 on-base percentages in 2017. That could deter Dipoto, who highly values OBP.
Even with Haniger and either Dyson or his successor in the mix, the Mariners may still need help in the grass. Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia combined for just 1.6 fWAR (all from Gamel) in 976 PAs, after all, and the former declined sharply at the plate in the second half of the season. Both players are dirt cheap and fairly young, which could convince the Mariners to give them a large amount of rope again in 2018. Still, there’s a variety of corner outfield options slated to reach free agency – including J.D. Martinez and possibly Justin Upton, whom Dipoto knows from their time together in Arizona – and some would at least make for useful bench pieces (Rajai Davis would fit a team in need of a baserunning boost, for instance) if the Mariners don’t shop for a bona fide starter.
The Mariners do appear to have a legitimate starter behind the plate in Zunino, the No. 3 pick in the 2012 draft who has moved past his early career struggles to emerge as an upper-tier backstop since last season. He’ll need a new backup, however, unless the Mariners re-sign respected veteran Carlos Ruiz. Whether it’s Ruiz or someone else, any catcher the Mariners tab for the No. 2 role likely isn’t going to play much next season – which makes it a low-priority need (but a need nonetheless) entering the winter.
This may prove to be a make-or-break offseason for Dipoto, who’s entering the final year of his contract. Putting together a team that at least seriously competes for a wild-card spot in 2018 could be enough to save his job, but it appears he’ll have to make improvements this winter without a ton of spending room. The good news for Dipoto is that the Mariners aren’t exactly devoid of talent, meaning he shouldn’t have to do anything drastic for them to end up as playoff contenders next season.
Trade everybody again.
There’s no way Otani will go to the Mariners. Why would he, when he wants to pitch and hit and maybe even play the outfield at times.
The Mariners could let him do that. It’s quite possible they rotate him and Cruz in Left and DH. Then after year 1 if he can’t stay healthy or struggles defensively you let Cruz walk and move him to DH full time for the rest of his contract.
Exactly. Might not be the most realistic option but the M’s could totally make it work if he decided he wants to come here
@Segovia3047 Cruz is not much faster than Matt Kemp in the outfield, so no, I don’t see that happening at all, but dream on. The Mariners need a lot of help, especially in regards to their bullpen, 1st base, and a slugger in the outfield.
Sid, the Mariners don’t have to have more relief help. With Diaz, Vincent, Phelps, Simmons, Zych, Pagan, Rzepczynski, Pazos, and both Gonzales and Ramirez out of options, plus a very promising Vieira just about ripe for a regular role, and Altavilla and Garton, all of which are on the 40, they will actually need to move at least one of them.
Cruz probably won’t play RF any more, but giving him a day off and letting Ohtani bat when he pitches certainly wouldn’t hurt. The Mariners do need an outfielder and 1st baseman, but neither area should be difficult to address. Starting pitching will be the tougher area to address, just like every other team in baseball.
But isn’t there still a posting system?
Sid, you cut and pasted that. You’re missing that Ohtani himself had said that that decision would ultimately be up to his team, and Seattle could actually give him DH duties when he starts; pinch hit with Cruz when he comes out. They could use Ohtani to pinch hit between starts as well.
Would really hate the M’s giving up on dipoto after 2018 since he inherited an old team with a high payroll and an abysmal farm system.
Deal seager for staring pitching(Julio therean). Sign otani. Sign Darvish to a incentive deal. Sign asdrubal Canberra to man 3b. Move Servias to bench coach hire dusty baker.
Probably take more than Teheran, but add Adams and a low-level prospect?
Yeah, I bet they can get Darvish on an incentive deal easy. Front end starters are so easy to come by, they’re dying to play for the M’s.
That was my thought exactly. Why the hell would Darvish sign any incentive deal?
He wouldn’t sign an incentive-laden deal, but backloading a contract would be feasible, or giving him an extra year to bring down the AAV a little.
My pov was coming from injury history.
It would obviously depend on the price, but if you think Darvish and Ohtani wouldn’t make the Mariners a real threat to reckon with, I would challenge you to study the team a little more closely. Not the same environment, atmosphere, or club it was just a few years ago.
And why would Darvish sign any incentive deal? That makes no sense at all. And Servais is going nowhere at this point.
Hacks, that’s probably not a huge stretch. They would have to eat some of Seager’s salary, as it shoots up to 19 million next season, but they probably could net a decent starter in a return. Probably not Teheran, but maybe a prospect, such as Soroka or Wentz. They might be able to snag Anderson from Miami for Moore to address 3B, rather than spend on a FA replacement.
“not a huge stretch?”
getright, I carefully chose my words!
What makes you think that Darvish – a front-end starter – would sign an incentive deal, something usually reserved for reclamation projects? Like, Darvish is getting paid!
That’s what I was thinking.
Asdrubal “Canberra” would be a pretty hefty downgrade from Seager, who is somewhat more valuable than Teheran at this point IMO. Not sure what you mean by incentive deal for Darvish, he’s going to get a very large guaranteed contract. Lastly, Dusty Baker doesn’t seem like the kind of guy Dipoto would hire.
M’s have a very good base right now. If I’m jerry, I pursue Chatwood and/or Mikolas to try to help out with the rotation and do what I can to bring back Dyson. As for first base, I wait until February and grab the best guy still available on a cheap 1-year deal.
The M’s are a good team, they just have a few holes here and there.
Also Im giving Gamel a spot out of the gate with Heredia as the 4th OF.
I’d say pursue Yonder Alonso right away, to be honest. First base has long been a hole for this team since 2008. We need some security at first base. We’ve cycled through so many first baseman it’s not even funny. We could, theoretically, bring Alonso in on a 3-4 Year deal and not have to do a one year deal. And I say, since Gamel in the second half forgot how to hit against lefties, possibly platoon him and Heredia in left, and pursue a right handed hitting outfielder, whomever that may be. And Chatwood, a groundball specialist, would work well with an infield of Seager, Segura, Cano, and whomever the first baseman is. I doubt they go for the hail Mary, and sign Yu Darvish, since the Mariners don’t really go for the aces in the off-season, but things change.
Cobbs better than tanaka and arrieta though, how is he second tier..?
NOPelican, Cobb probably isn’t better than Tanaka or Arrieta, but the gap isn’t huge. Cobb just doesn’t have the history the other two have.
*helping verbs*
Ok i have interesting trade theory
Ozuna and Stanton
For
Hernandez and decent prospects?
Marlins get stantons contract off and only have to pay felix for 2 years to clear a lot of salary they would be losing with stanton. Then mariners have scariest offense in baseball. Then they can focus on signing someone like Darvish, cobb or lynn. Then pick up otani if possible
Absolutely terrible for Miami…
Putting Hernandez in a deal would cost the Mariners more in prospects than leaving him out. He has negative value. He can’t stay healthy and when he is on the field he isn’t good.
Hold up forgot felix had ntc. Will update a new idea when i come up with one lmao
Yeah i realized how bad this is
Credit for being proactive.
When anyone has trade suggestions here, they get thrown into the fire.
Even if they’re often bad.
Wasn’t a terrible idea. He does have 10/5 rights, but he lives in Florida. I just don’t think the Mariners could afford the commitment to Stanton. Miami would probably want Lewis and Neidert or Carlson, plus a replacement outfielder, such as Gamel or Heredia. Feasible, but Dipoto probably wouldn’t be interested in trading more top prospects in addition to the massive salary of Stanton.
No kidding, xabial.
Now this is fantasy
First, I have to say this was laid out extremely well by Connor. Give him props, folks!
Second, naturally a lot of the focus goes to the possibility of landing Ohtani. If bringing in Darvish were necessary, they would almost certainly have to move either Seager or Cruz. Or both. Moving Seager would mean finding a replacement for 3B, and I could think of a couple of young options, the most realistic likely being Tyler Wade, though he doesn’t have a ton of experience at the hot corner. He’s a LHH, which would be important as well.
Moving Cruz would likely be a blow to Seattle’s offense, so I think that would be less likely, but he could likely net a B prospect in return (possibly Wade) and clear out 14.250 million in the process, while simultaneously creating DH PA’s for Ohtani. So there’s that. I do think it’s unlikely Seattle lands Darvish and Ohtani, but it’s not a complete stretch.
Regarding 1B, I think retaining Alonso is a real possibility, but it would be good to see them get away from the platoons at 1B. Maybe Christian Walker or Mike Ford could handle the job? They wouldn’t cost much to acquire, and given that most of the platoonable 1st basemen free agents will likely be signing affordable 1-year deals with non-contending clubs, the Mariners could likely acquire one of them cheaply at the deadline in a wost-case scenario.
The outfield will be an interesting area to address as well. I would think that Dipoto would prefer to bring in a LHH that offers defense, as well as the ability to get on. Power certainly wouldn’t hurt, either. I still think Dexter Fowler and Brett Phillips would make sense, as both shouldn’t be off limits and the Mariners should have the spare parts to acquire them. Fowler would mean a salary dump for St. Louis, which would be helpful, and Phillips could probably land Milwaukee a strong reliever, such as Zych, who throws mid-90’s and has 4 years of club control. That would save both teams some dough and address needs.
The Mariners don’t have a ton of chips, but they should be able to address their holes. They have a surplus of relievers and could potentially take advantage of the demand for closers by moving Diaz and giving his role to Vincent, Phelps, or even Simmons or Vieira, if they could come out of the offseason dialed-in.
Sounds like we drink the similar teal Kool-Aid. This is a well-written and thoughtful response, and it’s nice to see another fan who doesn’t necessarily think we’re DOOMED (even if it really feels like it’s all we can expect sometimes).
Cheers!
Thanks, Colon. It’s really not as bad as some make it out to be. They need a couple of starters, an outfielder, a first baseman, and a back up catcher. They could feasibly address one rotation spot with Ramirez if they have to. Marjama could replace Ruiz, but finding a different option shouldn’t be too difficult.
Would love to get Christian Walker the Similarities between him and Haniger are a plenty. The Diamondbacks have no room for him to be anything more then a Backup 1B/ Corner OF. I would much rather see us deal Cruz then Seager personally; Seager is coming off a down year where as Cruz is aging and on a one year deal. Otani would almost completely offset the offensive loss. Gamel and Heredia could platoon in CF or LF. Brett Phillips is a great bounce back candidate and would likely be had for cheap. Dexter Fowler too me screams stay away unless the Cardinals pick up at least 50% of his contract, he’s just not worth it as there are better players elsewhere (free agency) on comparable deals. I would love to see the Mariners cash in on Edwin Diaz as with 5 years of team control remaining he could single handedly restock the farm system.
Segovia, I have literally said the same thing about Walker. He has a little more power, but the contact numbers are there as is the plate discipline and defense.
Regarding Fowler, St. Louis would absolutely have to eat some dough. I was thinking around 18 million, which would bring down his AAV to 12 million.
If you’re curious for further detailed ideas and explanations, you can find my offseason plan for Seattle through Harball via Harcore which is linked to the “Baseball Blogs Weigh In” post.
I’m curious as to what the readers think. Felix’s contract runs through 2019. If the next two seasons are like the last two (an aggregate 2.4 BWAR in 240 IP) does he make the HOF? His career bWAR is 52.2, Was he great enough at his peak to offset a potential lack of aggregate stats?
Mike, that’s a good question. My guess is no, because the Writers don’t seem to respect pitchers the way they do fielders and catchers. But he probably should get in.
If Felix played for NYY or BOS he would be prefaced with the title “Future Hall of Famer”. He won’t make 1st ballot but may sneak in before he falls off the ballot.
Some of my half-witted thoughts:
– Extend Dipoto so there’s no pressure to make a desperation move while also giving him a total of at least 5-6 years to develop his plan or vision or whatever.
– If a deal can’t be made with Yonder Alonso maybe Moreland could be a stopgap target if he doesn’t end up back in Boston. Carlos Santana would be the cream of this year’s crop, and fits the on-base and overall offensive skill focus, but I just don’t see it happening. Folks have also listed Christian Walker as a good fit for Seattle but who knows if he’s available, and for what.
-Re-sign Jarrod Dyson. I don’t know what this deal will look like, but 2/$12-16MM? I find it hard to gauge since his value isn’t exactly derived from a typical offensive skill set, but either way the guy is an asset.
-Ohtani would certainly be nice, and there will be ways to find his bat into the lineup. I’m not really lumped into the “there’s no room for him on the offense roster” camp because it’s the friggin’ Mariners and they’d find room.
-Extend Smyly, 3-4 years with a heavily incentives-based contract. I like the Rays’ deal for Eovaldi, so maybe that can be the starting point, though I’d argue Smyly has a higher starting point. Whatever it is, I still would love to see him pitch at Safeco with our OF.
– Possible other extensions: Erasmo, Mike Zunino, Cruz, Nick Vincent and eventually Haniger. My pipe dream is a Paxton extension, but I’m not holding my breath.
-Sell highs: Paxton (yeah right), Cruz, Vincent, Gamel, Edwin Diaz. I don’t endorse these trades but they’ve got good-to-great value at the moment. This kind of seems like the opposite of what Dipoto will do though.
– Seriously consider extending Phelps, too. The evolution of today’s bullpen absolutely calls on guys like him to exist in the pitching staff. I may be biased as I absolutely loved the acquisition immediately.
-Don’t sell on Seager. Fair contract, doesn’t get Safeco’d, and had a down season. I expect a rebound, and he’s never hurt; which the Mariners need.
-A starter is obviously needed, but starting pitching is so ridiculously priced anymore that I’m not going to make any guesses. I expect we’ll see another body in 2018 by Spring Training.
Sorry this was so hastily and lazily written, I used my tiny iPhone and fat thumbs. Go M’s. Don’t be stupid.
Don’t expect an extension for Smyly. He’s a perfect non tender candidate, and the buyouts for Iwakuma, and Gallardo puts some money off the books for us. I think Dipoto, and Co. Would rather spend their available resources on someone who can help this 2018 (and beyond) team, rather than someone who won’t be able to impact until 2019. But, I think we have an upper hand of Yonder Alonso over everyone, I feel like. And he seems like the guy that Dipoto would bring in, as he’s not going to be that expensive, and he’s not a boom or bust type of hitter. There are multiple ways they can go about solving the outfield too. They can either get a right handed hitting out fielder whether that’s J.D., Upton, Lorenzo Cain (doubt J.D., but MAYBE Cain, depending on who they get to solve their rotation) or go through the trade route, which might be unlikely since our minor league system doesn’t have the ability to bring in a guy like Ozuna potentially. Or they can get a lefty, like Jarrod Dyson, and platoon him with Heredia, instead of a gamel, Heredia platoon. We’ll have to see.
We will have to agree to disagree on regarding Smyly. His value is low and he *could* be had for cheap, considering he wouldn’t even be able to pitch until, what, like August or September 2018 at the earliest? Eovaldi got 1/$2MM for 2017 with a club option for 2018 and the Rays knew he’d never throw a pitch for them this season. It certainly doesn’t help the Mariners to offer something for 2018, but Smyly is proven and could be a drastic help in 2019 with a similar deal. I say why not?
I believe he’s more likely to be non-tendered as well, but that wouldn’t mean he couldn’t come back on an incentive-laden deal later.
Initially, I speculated that an extension would tack on another 2 years on a back loaded deal: 2 million in 2018, 6 in 2019, and 8 in 2020. He won’t pitch much, if at all in 2018, 2019 would likely be an adjustment year, and 2020 is where the real value could be present.
But he may not go for that and the Mariners may not be willing to commit that kind of dough to a player who’s future is still a question mark. Most get past TJ nowadays, but there’s certainly still risk there.
Mathew, the Mariners absolutely need to bring in another LHH, whether that’s at 1B, the outfield, or both. Or on the bench. Something I neglected to mention was the need for a better utility infielder. Someone like Sogard or Wade could make a lot of sense.
Payroll is a bit of an issue. I don’t think they could afford one of Cain/Upton/Martinez, plus Alonso and still have the funding to get a starter. This is a big reason guys like Walker and Ford interest me. Walker has some MLB experience, and since the overhaul to his swing and approach, he’s been stellar, but he’s blocked by Goldschmidt. Ford doesn’t have much AAA experience, but he’s the poster boy for Jerry’s “C the Z” philosophy and he’s a Rule 5 candidate, as NY doesn’t appear to have any room for him on their 40.
That said, I’d have no complaints bringing back Alonso and I feel like there’s a very good chance of that as well. It would mean finding a platoon partner, and, ironically, that could very well be Walker. In that scenario, maybe they would have to find a young, regular outfielder such as Phillips to save money for starting pitching?
Anyway, great comment. Nice to see at least a handful of Mariners fans here with a good understanding of the game, what we have, and where we are.
Maybe the Brewers would trade Phillips. But we all know what the Brewers need, is pitching. Any form of pitching. The only possible one (probably not even that) we can trade from us someone like Thyago Vieira, or Marco Gonzales. An outfield of Gamel, Phillips, Haniger, and then Heredia does have some huge potential. But, we just don’t have a lot in terms of established pitching we should be willing to give away (not give away, but you understand). I feel like if they return the same exact offense from last year (with an exclusion of the bench players like Ruiz, Motter, and Valencia) there’s going to be improvement. Ben Gamel didn’t expect to be the starting outfielder from May to the end of the season, I expect him not to completely fall off in the second half again. If Mitch Haniger, and Jean Segura can stay healthy, you better watch out for those two. Even just bringing back Dyson might go a long way, instead of going for Brett Phillips. Jesus Christ, it’s Jerry Dipoto for all we know. He’s probably already traded for Mike Trout, and the spirit of Babe Ruth.
Phillips has a 28 kS%. It was 21.4% in AAA. Broxton didn’t fare much better, but Phillips walks more, so maybe Broxton is more likely to go? I can’t imagine either being untouchable though, especially with Brinson knocking on the door. Braun isn’t likely going anywhere with is 10/5 rights and the money owed.
But if Phillips is available, I would imagine a young starter or ready-now reliever would do the trick. Tony Zych would make a lot of sense, as he has 4 years of control remaining. He could feasibly replace Swarzak.
The Mariners have an excess of relievers on the 40. Someone likely gets moved, if not a couple.
I don’t expect Tony Zych to be traded. It’s always possible, but when healthy, he flashed some dominant stuff in the 7th inning. If Zych is lover, we’d push David Phelps up into the 7th inning, and In my opinion, hum bring able to pitch 2 innings, middle relief in the 5th or 6th, is better for him.
Zych was being used earlier in games. They traded for Phelps to have him set up and take some of the load off of Vincent, rather than give the role to Zych. I think that’s telling. The surface numbers were good, but I feel like they intend to sell high on him, and they arguably would be.
Relief pitching is the one area of depth the team has right now, and there are many more on the way, such as Vieira, Povse, Festa, Gillies, and Warren. Altavilla and even Pagan may end up starting the season in Tacoma. If Zych isn’t moved, I would bet another reliever will be.
Colon, I’ve wondered about extension candidates as well, specifically with Phelps. I would imagine that’s less likely, but it would be one way to bring his AAV down and squeeze more out of that deal with Miami. That was one of the misses this season, but it’s not like anybody could foresee the injury coming. Paxton would seem less likely, as he’s a Boras client. That’s part of the reason I’ve been in favor of trying to sell high on him, though I’d have no issue with him staying around longer.
I don’t think moving Gamel or Vincent is likely. Servais and Dipoto both appear to be high on Vincent, and understandably so. He could feasibly handle closing duties if they were to try to sell high on Diaz.
Gamel struggled in the second half, especially against southpaws. But in a platoon role with Heredia, both should be fine. They could stand to improve their base running, but I feel confident they’ll be able to.
Phelps makes too much sense to me as a long term option. He’s been great over the past two seasons, minus when pitching while injured or an injury occurred (his last few appearances of 2017), and Dipoto obviously liked him enough to acquire him in the first place. As I stated before too, today’s bullpens crave pitchers like Phelps who are flexible and can handle multiple innings and roles. Him and Vincent combined for 50 holds in 2017, each having over 20. That’s a killer late inning duo.
He’s also got a 11.1 K/9 over the past two seasons over 142 IP (there were a few starts last year with Miami, to be clear). Plus, his 3.09 FIP while being worth 2.5 fWAR over the same time frame is legitimate stuff for a relief pitcher. Those relievers may be fickle creatures, but I’m confident David Phelps is worth the investment. I don’t think he’ll be costing what Andrew Miller did, either.
I would like to see a Phelps extension, I simply don’t expect it. But II was just pointing out that Zych is a prime trade candidate, in my opinion, because Phelps was acquired to take some of the load off of Vincent, who was setting up and occasionally closing. Zych didn’t get the gig, which I think is telling.
I think Phelps is likely the set-up man next season, regardless of an extension and Zych gets moved for an outfielder, starting pitcher, or even a 1st baseman.
Just do a complete rebuild, from the top brass all the way down to the bat boy. Just get rid of all the players and coaches and top brass and start over. The Astros did and now there in the World Series
These aren’t exact, just a structure:
Sign Otani (Still a little confused about if he would cost the 5 mil everyone is talking about or 25 mil with the posting fee)
Trade a mid-tier prospect like Vogelbach or Povse for Nick Castellanos (To save Detroit a little bit of money)
Trade Ben Gamel for Jake Odorizzi (I borrowed this one from Bleacher Report)
Trade Andrew Moore for Michael Taylor
Sign Carlos Gonzalez (Probably not a very long deal at about 13 mil per year)
Rotation:
Paxton
Otani
Odorizzi
Leake
Hernandez
Lineup:
Segura (SS)
Haniger (RF)
Cano (2B)
Cruz (DH)
Gonzalez (LF)
Seager (3B)
Castellanos (1B)
Zunino (C)
Taylor (CF)
I’m not completely sure how the finances would work but I think it would be pretty close and if it did I think this would be one of the best lineups top to bottom in the Majors and a very good rotation as well. Granted it would only work if Jerry can get Otani, but if it does, this plan wouldn’t destroy the farm or the future.
I’m not even sure if this is feasible so I would love feedback.
I am not sure you are getting Castellanos for Vogelbach. DV can’t make it out of AAA. I think Dipoto Saw Schwarber and thought they look alike maybe they can play alike. I am not sure other GMs will be that gullible.
Don’t let the we have limited funds fool you. Remember they bought a 50% share in ROOTs Sport NW. It is supposed to bring in $500 mill a year or something like that. Plus the $135-150 mill from the MLB TV contract. The Mariners have the money to spend if they want to spend it. Bringing in Otani and Darvish is not out of the question.
Do that being back Dyson and Alonzo see if you can’t find a short term replacement for Valencia if not bring him back too. Then the little filet pieces and the team is set. It all depends on if Otani wants to come here or notv of course.
Now I need to go back to reading about prospects because I am so stupid I don’t know how they work our get called up to the majors. Even though I quote it from an article I don’t know anything. I use the projected date from BB top 30 for each team and say they could be called up then I don’t know anything. Like moving Haniger from the OF to 1st because some people thinks he sucks add an OFer. I asked why would you do that when White will probably be up in 2 years? Or why invest heavy in an OFer when they project Lewis to be a Sept call up. Then make the team in 19. I don’t understand how that works but the same guy who told me that wants Servais fired. I bet he blames the pitchers injuries on him. I am back to the internet to learn more.
I’m not sure why you made that last paragraph Lou, it seems like me telling you to research prospects is still hurting you for some reason. And I still think Servais should be fired, this team was full of speed, but they absolutely horrible on the bases, and his bullpen management is terrible. He’s been putting Diaz in tie games ever since 2016 even though Diaz almost always gives up a run. And you still are insisting that White and Lewis will have no problem at all developing and will be ready to play every day at the major league level fully in 2019. But Jerry Dipoto is probably using baseball America or whatever site your on for the development of his players. Lewis and White will be ready for the major leagues when they’re ready, not when the projections say they are.
Funny thing is, Bishop is probably the next outfield prospect we’ll likely see. I personally think Lewis is at least 2 years away. White is probably 3 years out and he may end up in the outfield himself.
The base running was putrid. That has to improve, and to Servais’ credit, he implemented a routine study at some point last season, so he was taking it seriously.
Regarding the bullpen management, I think a lot of that had to do with the revolving door of relievers due to injuries. That said, I didn’t like Diaz in non-save situations either, and he seemed reluctant to use Rzep even when the matchup was there. On occasion, we saw relievers warmed up, then not used, which drove me crazy.
But I believe he’s learned from his mistakes and most of the questions will disappear with a healthy staff.
He’s back for 2018. My bigger concern is Acta finding a full-time gig elsewhere. He’s slated to be the new bench coach, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up in Washington.
You telling me to research never hurt me I find it funny. You come off as you know more and think you are smarter than me. I am not putting a timeline on these players I am using the timeline the experts put on them. I don’t see why you can’t understand that. Yes I understand there can be setbacks. Because they had Lewis to be called up next year before his injury. You telling me I need to learn how prospects work like I said multiple times was funny. I use something I read and because you disagree I don’t know anything. Tell me why is it so out of this realm of possibility that Lewis is a Sept call up? Even if it is a 50 50 chance he makes the team in ’19 why wouldn’t they call him up?
As for White going to the OF I hope they don’t make that mistake. I think it was Reynolds who said you could have a possible gold glove 1st bm with a decent bat or an avg OFer with a good bat. I think it will be a mistake to move him. They haven’t yet and hopefully won’t.
MHanny, I’ve often wondered about the availability of Taylor. With Eaton likely back in the picture next season, he would seemingly get squeezed out, but I would imagine Washington would prefer to keep him in case of an emergency and for defensive substitutions. If he were available, maybe a reliever to Washington would be feasible? I think Moore would be deemed too valuable.
Castellanos would be a rebound candidate, but I don’t think Detroit would want another DH with Miggy and Martinez around, though Martinez may retire.
Gamel is probably going to stick around, but Odorizzi is probably on the table. I’d prefer Chirinos myself, even though he hasn’t pitched in the majors yet. Either player (or both) should be acquirable, maybe for relief help? They will likely lose Cishek and Romo to free agency, so I could see Altavilla and Rzep getting a deal done. Though Rzep is owed 5.5 million (I think), there’s no long-term commitment and they need a LHRP as much as they do a RHRP. They need outfielders, too, but so do we! We’re short one as-is.
My guess is that Gonzalez strikes out too much for a Dipoto team, but he should be somewhere on the list of options, even if he’s not at the top. I’m not as high on bringing back Dyson myself, despite his elite defense and base running, because by all accounts, it looks like he quit on the team this season. His surgery was minor and could have waited. He bailed when Seattle needed him the most. If I’m wrong, I’ll stand corrected, but I have yet to see anything that suggests otherwise.
Regarding Ohtani, the posting fee doesn’t apply to payroll. The bonus pool dough will factor in and the Mariners won’t be able to max that out because of other signings they’ve made, but with a signing bonus, they could still boost his salary to somewhere close to 10 million, if I’m not mistaken.
Thanks for the feedback. So if Vogelbach won’t get a Castellanos deal done, what do you think it would take?
I don’t think Seattle would likely target Castellanos, but if they did, I would imagine they would try to package some C prospects, perhaps a couple of A or AA relievers, or one with Filia? That probably wouldn’t be appealing to Detroit, though.
As long as the M’s are with Dipoto and Servais, they are not going anywhere.
Dipoto signed the pitchers who were not good and had history of injuries in the past. He knew Paxton had always been an injury prone, and Kuma who the Dodgers let go due to suspicious health issues but still signed him. He had chances to sign some decent pitchers by the trade deadline, but he waited way long to get one pitcher, Leake. He gave up on the team when they still had a chance to make the playoffs in the second half.
I give him the credit for getting decent hitters with good defense, however, he brought Servais with him, his best friend as the manager to this team with no prior managerial experiences, and failed to produce consistency in the lineup.
Servais has not changed a bit from his first year, but only got worse. He lost so many winnable and close games due to his lack in BP management and team management, failed to creating runs, too many errors committed by players, never took any risks to win games, only leaned onto long balls to win. He just does not know how to manage a team, period.
With these two on the team, the M’s will not have chances of making the playoffs for a long time.
Ichiros, what pitchers did in 2016 counts. Smyly threw 170+ innings and Iwakuma was 1 shy of 200. That would put fears to rest for most, if not all GM’s. And at the break, everyone was looking for pitching. Leake wasn’t necessarily available at that time, as the Cards’ were still in the hunt.
Regarding Servais, it should be clear that with the sheer number of pitchers injured, leading this squad to the post season was a tall task. At one point, there were zero intended starters in the rotation, and for most of the season, it was just Gallardo, who was terrible.
If you want to fault Dipoto for having poor depth beyond Miranda (Overton and Heston), or for gambling on Gallardo, you’ll hear as much for him. But starting pitchers don’t exactly grow on trees,
At least there was no long-term commitment to Iwakuma or Gallardo. The chances of Seattle’s pitching rebounding has no where to go but up, and with a healthy bullpen in 2018, some of the oddities we saw from Servais shouldn’t repeat themselves.
The Mariners are a lot closer than you may realize. But of course we’ll have to see what happens this offseason and how the moves play out. I’m not thrilled with the idea of leaning heavily on Paxton either, but he’s electric when he’s able to go.