MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
After preventing left fielder Yoenis Cespedes from departing in free agency last offseason, the Mets entered 2017 on the shortlist of potential contenders in the National League. But injuries and down years beset nearly all of the Mets’ top players this season, leading to a 70-win campaign and the end of Terry Collins’ run as their manager. GM Sandy Alderson & Co. are currently searching for Collins’ replacement, but regardless of who’s atop the dugout next season, roster improvements are clearly in order.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yoenis Cespedes, OF: $87.5MM through 2020
- David Wright, 3B: $47MM through 2020
- Juan Lagares, OF: $15.5MM through 2019 (club option for 2020)
Contract Options
- Asdrubal Cabrera, INF: $8.5MM club option or $2MM buyout
- Jerry Blevins, RP: $7MM club option or $1MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via Matt Swartz)
- Nori Aoki (5.148) – $6.3MM
- Tommy Milone (5.113) – $2.2MM
- Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM
- AJ Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM
- Jeurys Familia (5.024) – $7.4MM
- Zack Wheeler (4.098) – $1.9MM
- Travis d’Arnaud (4.044) – $3.4MM
- Wilmer Flores (4.003) – $3.7MM
- Jacob deGrom (3.139) – $9.2MM
- Noah Syndergaard (2.149) – $1.9MM
- Hansel Robles (2.127) – $1.0MM
- Non-tender candidates: Aoki, Milone
Free Agents
[Mets Depth Chart; Mets Payroll Information]
The Mets were never able to get off the mat after a 10-14 April, and as the season wore on, it became obvious Alderson was going to sell the team’s free agents-to-be in the summer. Ultimately, with the exception of Jose Reyes, Alderson dealt every notable Met on an expiring contract either before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline or prior to the Aug. 31 waiver deadline. During those two months, the Mets said goodbye to outfielders Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce, first baseman Lucas Duda, second baseman Neil Walker and reliever Addison Reed, among a couple others. All five of those players weighed heavily into the Mets’ franchise-record $155MM Opening Day payroll, a figure that will reportedly decrease by around $20MM in 2018. When factoring in the Mets’ arbitration projections and a couple club options they’re likely to exercise, roughly $100MM of their payroll for next season already looks settled. As such, New York probably won’t be a major player for the premier members of this offseason’s free agent class. That means Alderson is going to have to strike gold on some bargain pickups in order to help the team return to contention.
There’s a litany of question marks on the Mets’ roster heading into the offseason, but the most suspect area may be their infield. Aside from 21-year-old starting shortstop Amed Rosario – who, despite his elite prospect pedigree, struggled in his first 170 big league plate appearances – it’s anyone’s guess how the four-man unit will look in 2018. Third baseman and franchise icon David Wright will continue to loom over the Mets’ payroll through the next three years, but upper body injuries have prevented him from playing in the bigs since May 1, 2016, and he just underwent yet another surgery. The Mets can’t count on Wright to bounce back, something Alderson realizes, so they’re going to have to figure out what to do at the hot corner.
With Wright sidelined for all of 2017, Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera combined to fare decently, but that doesn’t mean any are locks to start at third next season. Reyes is probably done as a Met, while they’ll have to make a decision on Cabrera’s $8.5MM option. The Mets will have to pay Cabrera a $2MM buyout if they decline to bring him back, which looks unlikely. After all, the 31-year-old has offered solid offensive production during his two-season tenure as a Met, and he’s capable of playing multiple infield positions. Flores and Rivera also bring respectable bats and defensive versatility to the table, making them strong bets to continue factoring in across the infield.
Should Cabrera, Flores and Rivera stays in their plans (and if Rivera’s recovery from Tommy John surgery goes smoothly), the Mets might not feel obligated to make any significant changes at either third or second, but if they do, there will be some reasonably priced options available in the coming weeks. Mike Moustakas figures to be out of the Mets’ price range at third, though fellow impending free agents Todd Frazier (a New Jersey native), Eduardo Nunez and, if he’s willing to move off shortstop, Zack Cozart might be fits. Nunez or Cozart could be solutions at second, too, which also holds true for Walker – who enjoyed his stint with the Mets – Howie Kendrick and trade candidates such as Ian Kinsler (Tigers), Yangervis Solarte (Padres) and Logan Forsythe (Dodgers). The speedy Nunez stands out as an especially intriguing possibility for a team that stole the majors’ fourth-fewest bases in 2017 (58) and finished fifth from the bottom in FanGraphs’ BsR metric. Notably, no Met acquitted himself better in either of those departments this season than Reyes, so losing him and adding Nunez would essentially be a lateral move from a baserunning standpoint.
As right-handed hitters, Flores and Rivera could be platoon mates at first for the lefty-swinging Dominic Smith, but the Mets might want to find an upgrade there. Smith, who debuted with the Mets in August as a top 100 prospect, was woeful during his 183-PA introduction in 2017. While the Mets don’t necessarily have to abandon hope on the 22-year-old, they also shouldn’t hand him the job at first next season if their goal is to contend. With three minor league options remaining, Smith could go back to Triple-A while the Mets turn to a more established player at first. That’s not to suggest they’ll splurge on Eric Hosmer or Carlos Santana, but Bruce, Duda, Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison and Mitch Moreland may be on their radar as more payroll-friendly types (admittedly, giving Smith another shot might make more sense than turning to the mediocre Moreland).
As Joel Sherman of the New York Post noted last month, Bruce could also act as a right field fill-in if breakout star Michael Conforto’s late-season shoulder surgery keeps him out of action in early 2018. Conforto’s injury somewhat clouds the outfield picture, but it still seems fair to surmise that the Mets’ alignment in the grass next season will mostly consist of him and Cespedes flanking a Juan Lagares/Brandon Nimmo tandem in center. With those players on hand, the Mets could cut ties with expensive reserve Nori Aoki. Although Aoki performed well after signing with the Mets late in the season, his low-ceiling skillset may not be worth $6MM-plus to a team with many holes and limited spending room.
While the Mets’ group of position players has plenty of issues – including behind the plate, arguably, though it appears they’ll stay the course with Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki – their pitching was the weaker area in 2017, surprisingly enough. The Mets’ staff looked elite coming into the year, but their starters and relievers wound up recording the majors’ third-highest ERA (5.01) and 10th-worst fWAR (10.0). Injuries were at fault to a degree, especially considering fireballer and all-world ace Noah Syndergaard was barely available on account of a torn right lat. Syndergaard sat out all of May, June, July and August, limiting him to 30 1/3 innings on the year, but he returned late in campaign and figures to take the ball on Opening Day in 2018.
If healthy, Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are about as good as it gets atop a rotation, but certainty is difficult to find anywhere else among the Mets’ cadre of starters. Former ace Matt Harvey will be back in his last year of arbitration eligibility, and while it does make sense to tender him a contract, his leash may be short next season. In his first action since undergoing July 2016 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, Harvey pitched to a 6.70 ERA/6.37 FIP across 92 2/3 innings. More of that next year could send him to the bullpen or out of New York entirely. Harvey certainly wasn’t the only Mets starter who disappointed this season, though, as Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler were also ineffective before seeing their years end early thanks to arm problems. The fact that they opened the season with durability concerns makes their truncated, below-average 2017s all the more troubling. Meanwhile, the other Mets who amassed double-digit starts – Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo and Rafael Montero – also failed to distinguish themselves as rotation locks this year. The only member of the trio without any options left is Montero, which means he could find himself out of the organization if he doesn’t at least crack the Mets’ bullpen next spring.
The Mets clearly have enough arms to fill in a rotation behind Syndergaard and deGrom, but as evidenced above, there’s substantial risk with each of those hurlers. As such, it would behoove the Mets to search for a competent innings eater – something they had in Bartolo Colon from 2014-16. If they’re not in big-spending mode, expecting to find the type of production Colon offered during that three-year stretch may be unrealistic, but there will still be affordable free agents who could help their cause. Doug Fister was on the Mets’ radar early in 2017 and is due to reach the market again after an encouraging showing in Boston. Other potential targets in free agency may include CC Sabathia (it’s hard to imagine the Yankees not re-signing him, though), Jaime Garcia, Jhoulys Chacin, Jeremy Hellickson, John Lackey, Jason Vargas, Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman, to name several.
Moving to the bullpen, there will be an array of quality relievers available in free agency, which is good news for a Mets club on the lookout for late-game stability. Jeurys Familia, like many other Mets, was both injured and unspectacular in 2017, pitching to a 4.38 ERA and walking nearly 5.5 batters per nine innings over 24 2/3 frames. His struggles played a part in the Mets’ bullpen posting the majors’ second-worst ERA (4.82) and fifth-lowest fWAR (1.2). Only one bullpen – the Brewers’ – recorded a higher walk rate than the Mets’ 4.25 per nine, while just eight induced fewer groundballs. The Mets’ woes in the walk department came despite having Reed for the majority of the season. Reed put up an extremely impressive 1.1 BB/9 in 49 innings with the Mets this year, and he’s one of several control artists headed for the open market. As shown in the previous link, no free agent-to-be combines appealing walk and grounder rates like Brandon Kintzler, who was top seven this year among impending FA relievers in each category. If signed, he’d join Familia, Jerry Blevins and AJ Ramos as the Mets’ go-to arms in high-leverage spots. However, the Mets may opt for a far more strikeout-minded reliever(s) than Kintzler, who barely punched out four batters per nine innings this season.
Evidenced in part by their pitching staff, a lot has changed in the past year for the Mets, who went into last offseason bent on keeping a playoff-caliber roster intact. Twelve months later, they’re an NL also-ran that closed this season with a dreadful record and the league’s third-worst run differential (minus-128). Better health alone will prevent such a poor finish from happening again in 2018, but management will have to make a variety of shrewd moves this winter in order to restore the club to the winning ways it displayed from 2015-16.
“they’re an NL also-ran that closed this season with a dreadful record and the league’s third-worst run differential (minus-128).” What is trying to be said?
They had a bad year.
Didn’t Rivera have TJ surgery late this season? Will that not affect his availability for the first half of next season?
He did. It’s not really clear how much time he’ll miss (if any), but I added a note on it. Thanks!
TJ surgery rehab for position players is a lot shorter, about 6-9 months instead of the 16 months pitchers have.
He most likely won’t make opening day, but he shouldn’t miss much time overall. Mid May seems like a fair expectation.
Can I have guess Harvey’s 2018 #’s?
He should be a reliever. Would be cool to see him become izzy part 2. He has nothing left for a starter. No durability. Couldn’t pitch three times through even when healthy. Let him flame it for an inning a time and see what he can bring to the table.
It’s really not a bad idea. Could save the search for another relieved and perhaps focus the money on positional players.
Biggest problem with that idea would be Harvey’s agent. Being in a walk year, Boras is going to do everything in his power to maximize the pay day and even a mediocre starter makes more than a reliever.
You should include a non-tender candidates after listing the arbitration cases like is usually done.
I did.
Offseason Outlook: Bleak
There are two things here that anger me as a Mets fan and I have to get them off my chest. First off – the payroll. We are in New York City and I am tired of the Mets organization limiting their spending. There is a large amount of money now off the books with Duda, Bruce, Granderson, Reed, Walker and Rene Rivera gone. How could the Mets already be pinching their pennies? Second, why would the Mets not resign Reyes? 1) He actually wants to be here and would probably accept any decent deal the Mets offered him 2) He has shown he is willing to do whatever is necessary to help the team win 3) He is a mentor for Rosario 4) Over the last couple of months, he proved that he could be a productive player (although he should be used off the bench most of the time) 5) He provides the Mets with what little speed they have 6) Most fans, like me, want him back. I have little confidence with Alderson as GM.
Hey DDD….your team will end next season in roughly the same poor shape as this season if that’s all that you get off your chest as a result of your anger.
Your team NEEDS NEW OWNERSHIP if it will ever have any hope for a proper rebuild to
become a creditable team.
That’s where the $$$ will come from. Ownership would also need to CLEAN HOUSE of management including Sandy & Co with his new front office flunky “TC”.
Here’s your short list to turn anger into success:
1-DO NOT BUY ANY TICKETS for 2018.
2-DO NOT BUY ANY METS LICENSED Merchandised either.
3-DO NOT WATCH SNY AT ALL.
4-email and message this to any Mets fans that you know.
Without any play money, the Wilpon’s will lose interest. Embarrass them with empty seats and low TV ratings and they will go back to their real estate business.
They are incompetent owners that are unwilling to invest their skin in the game to make this a successful franchise. They operate this team like it is a small market and reap the $$$ from the turnstiles. Together Mutt and Jeff bumble season to season with soap opera skill.
It’s time for NYC to have two great baseball teams again.
Mikeyanks55, Just stop with the boycott stuff. And especially from you, a Yankees fan avatar who posts here regularly as Mets hater.
With or without the Wilpons, true Mets fans love their team through thick and thin. Of course it’s in the best interest of a Mets hater to call for boycott and reduce revenue which reduces payroll the following season. 2015 and 2016 were playoff seasons for Mets. The 2017 payroll of 155 mil to open the season is not indicative of cheap. If the 2018 payroll is reduced, Mets will still find a way to put a very competitive team on the field like they did in 2015 as NL champs and 2016 as a wild card winner.
No true Mets fans boycotts.
I really hope that guy gets banned. He’s never actually contributed to a discussion. Just trolls Mets and Red Sox fans
Hey it worked for the Dodgers, their fans boycotted everything and they got that jerk Frank McCourt to sell the team.
The fans boycott of the Dodgers—if there ever really was one, as they were averaging 3 million fans per year the last few yeas of Mccourt’s ownership—had nothing to do with forcing his hand to sell. McCourt bought the team entirely on credit, leveraging his property holdings in Boston for collateral. And then he and his wife used the team’s coffers as their own personal piggy bank, and they didn’t have the lucrative TV deal to bail them out when the bills came due. It was really Selig who forced the sale because he blocked McCourt’s TV deal with Fox, and without that money McCourt had no choice…he’d either sell (and make a fortune) or go bankrupt (and make a lesser fortune).
In any case, nothing is going to force the Wilpon’s to sell. The Mets are too valuable an entity, and generate too much revenue. Whatever they do with that revenue is up to them, not the fan base. If they choose to invest less in the club, and use much of it to recoup/rebuild their loses following the Madoff scandal and subsequent market/real estate crash. Baseball, or the team’s fans, can’t force the Mets to carry a $200M payroll.
In the 1950’s NY City had three legitimate baseball teams and rivalries were amazing. If you defend the Mets soap opera that’s your gig. It’s a comical digression from the sport with all of the controversies that surround the franchise through decades. Try arguing your way around that reality and you will find sobering truths.
Hey goat-this is mlb trade rumors. We all know you to be the most knowledgeable fan that can quote his hypothesis like a frustrated sports announcer. However for all of your dominating posts there are real regular fans that may not post, and may not study saber-metrics. Perhaps you should realize that your contributions are also appreciated by a slice of this community. So stop ranting on others that don’t conform to your standards.
What standards are those? Contributing something useful to the conversation instead of constantly bashing the team being written about? Your posts constantly fail those standards. I agree that you should be banned from posting here.
BULLSHIT. In the 1950’s the Giants and Dodgers barely pulled 600,000 fans into the stadium and they had NO money.
DDDog. I want him back too and think he will be signed. I’m not buying the reports that end his Mets career yet again. I think those reports are overeager in assumption Alderson’s turning the page. Reyes’s value to the Mets is both on and off field.
I think part of the problem with Reyes is Wright’s situation- the Mets have to prepare for the possibility he is on the roster for at least part of next year. They already have Rosario, Cabrera, and Flores. Either Smith is the 1b, or they have to add another player. There are only so many IF that can be squeezed onto the roster.
I wouldn’t be shocked if they moved Flores for pitching (I’m thinking good reliever who is either pre-arbitratiom or only in year 1), in that case Reyes should be back.
100% in agreement with just about everything you said. There’s a reason the Wilpons have a reputation for being cheap and we’re all sick of it.
As far as Reyes goes, to me it’s a no-brainer to bring him back for at least another year.
Reyes SUCKED by any objective standard. His OPS was 91 and his WAR -0.6 and he has NO POSITION.. With Flores, Rivera, Cecchini, and Cabera on the roster, along with Evans and Roserio, there is no place for Reyes on this ML Roster.
Mets just need a shake up. Not a rebuild- Im talking like major leaguer for major leaguer swaps.
If Im Sandy, first thing I do is pick up Cabrera’s option and trade him to the Angels with cash for a starter seeing as how the Halos have Bridwell, Richards, Shoemaker, Heaney, Ramirez, Tropeano, Skaggs, Smith and Meyer. Let’s say Shoemaker given the salary and age.
Then Im trading Wheeler for Profar, put Profar at second,
I sign Hector Rondon and Mike Fiers cheap after the NT-date and then grab one of the cheap 1B’s in February. Say Moreland
C- d’Arnaud 1B- Moreland 2B- Profar SS- Rosario 3B- Flores OF- Nimmo, Conforto, Yo
SP- deGrom Thor Shoemaker Fiers and Lugo
RP- Familia, Ramos, Rondon, Harvey……..
Smith isn’t ready yet IMO.
Personally, Id probably shop Ramos and Familia too and Robles is NT’d.
Moreland sucks, rather have Dom. and I highly doubt the Angels are trading a starter when their rotation has been decimated the past couple of years
yeah…no.
Moreland couldn’t hit in boston, a lefty masher’s paradise. Profar couldn’t break into texas’ infield, and you want to trade away pitching…which is full of health questions for a once prospect? no thanks.
Mets should just keep doing what they’re doing….. it’s amusing and fun to read about
The Mets are in that awkward position between being bonafide contenders, and on the verge on imminent collapse. 2017 was a disaster for them in nearly every way, but just as everything went wrong it’s possible that everything goes right and they are contenders in 2018. However, they are very poorly constructed, with too much emphasis on inefficient pitchers who can’t stay on the field, and a position player group that is among the worst in baseball.
If the Mets truly want to build a contender they need to make some drastic, and possible expensive moves. They need at least two legitimate position players. They can get one through free agency—Hosmer probably fits the best—and the other through trade. They should dangle DeGrom for the best package/player they can find. Perhaps they can make a deal with Boston, targeting either Betts or Boagerts.
Now, before the screams of “you can’t trade DeGrom, he’s their best pitcher”…you’re right, he is. But unless Syndergaard returns to form, and other pieces pitch up to their capabilities, it won’t matter if DeGrom wins the Cy Young, the Mets won’t go anywhere. So I think it makes more sense to trade your best pitcher for a huge return, and hope you get top-notch performances from others, rather than being mediocre all around except for one day of the week.
the mets are clearly one ownership away from a ws title.
Wilpons are so shameful. Cut a cheapskate middling payroll by 20 mm, with all the open spots they need to fill, and still trying to convince Met fans that they want/expect to compete. Minus 20 mm, and not counting Wright (who should have been bought out long ago), would put them well within the bottom 1/3rd of the league in payroll. In baseball’s largest market. Funny to the rest of the baseball world. Just sad for Met fans.