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After a somewhat average first half, the Cincinnati Reds collapsed after the All-Star break and ultimately finished last in the NL Central. The result was a second consecutive 68-94 record and a fourth consecutive losing season. The organization will now need to answer some tough questions, including what they’ll do to improve a historically bad pitching staff, and whether or not they ought to try and sell off some established players like Billy Hamilton.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Joey Votto, 1B: $150MM through 2023
- Homer Bailey, SP: $44MM through 2019 ($25MM mutual option for 2020, $5MM buyout)
- Devin Mesoraco, $13.1MM through 2018
- Raisel Iglesias, $16.6MM through 2020 (Can opt into arbitration for next season)
- Tucker Barnhart, $15.5MM through 2021 ($7.5MM option for 2022, $500K buyout)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
- Billy Hamilton (4.028) – $5.0MM
- Anthony DeSclafani (3.062) – $1.1MM
- Eugenio Suarez (3.061) – $4.4MM
- Michael Lorenzen (2.159) – $1.4MM
- Raisel Iglesias (2.154) – $2.8MM if he chooses to opt into arbitration. Otherwise, contract calls for $4.5MM in 2018, $5MM in 2019, and $5MM in 2020.
Free Agents
Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Overview
With about $68.7MM tied up in payroll commitments for the upcoming season, along with $18MM in projected arbitration salaries, the Cincinnati Reds face limited retooling options for their 2018 roster. Unfortunately for Cincinnati fans, it seems as though the small-market Reds have more holes to fill on their roster than space in the budget. Top prospect Nick Senzel is likely to contribute at some point next season (according to comments made by GM Dick Williams), but he’d only fill a hole in the lineup left by Zack Cozart, who will either depart or become expensive to retain. Within a fiercely competitive division that includes four other teams pushing to contend, it’s unlikely that a few cheap patches will vault the Reds into contention within the NL Central.
Williams has stated that the team is interested in discussing a new deal with Cozart, but the Reds won’t be the only team vying for his services. The Rays, Royals, and Padres are all in need of a shortstop for the long-term. The Orioles could take a look as well, considering incumbent Tim Beckham’s horrid September and relative uncertainty. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in using him at second base as well. His .297/.385/.548 slash line this past season and solid defense made Cozart the fourth-most valuable shortstop in baseball by fWAR. Even if the Reds are willing to shell out the cash needed to keep their All-Star shortstop, there’s still the chance he’d rather play with a more likely contender. If Cozart ends up elsewhere, former top prospect Jose Peraza seems like the best bet to take his place at short.
The first decision the Reds will need to make on Cozart this offseason will be whether or not to issue him a $17.4MM qualifying offer. The rules are different overall this season, but the implications for Cozart and the Reds would likely remain the same. Because the Reds received revenue sharing in 2017, they would gain a compensatory draft pick after the first round of the 2018 draft next June, if Cozart signs a contract with another team worth at least $50MM. The additional pick (and corresponding slot money) would be a great asset to the club’s rebuild. But for the Reds and their limited payroll space, $17.4MM could end up severely handcuffing them in a non-contending season. That salary, along with guaranteed contracts, arbitration projections and league minimum salaries for the rest of the roster, would push their payroll north of $111MM for 2018, which would fall just $4MM short of their 2015 club record payroll. Such a high payroll could hurt the organization’s capacity to fill other holes on the roster through free agency. With Peraza waiting as a shortstop option with some upside, there’s at least a small chance the Reds could decide not to take the risk of giving Cozart a QO.
Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan should be healthy enough in time for spring training to join Luis Castillo and Homer Bailey in a rotation that struggled mightily last year; Reds starters allowed the most homers in baseball and finished with the second-highest ERA and walk rate. Robert Stephenson, Rookie Davis, Cody Reed, Tim Adleman, Amir Garrett and top prospect Tyler Mahle are internal options for the fifth spot in the rotation if the Reds don’t sign anyone. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll be involved in the bidding for a top-tier starter due to their limited payroll space. There’s a chance they could give a three- or four-year contract to a number two or three starter type, but even that seems like a stretch given the risks involved and the fact that they aren’t likely to make the playoffs in the near future. Instead, they might end up exploring veteran options like Jaime Garcia and Andrew Cashner who have some upside and could eat innings for Cincinnati on less expensive contracts.
Outside of Raisel Iglesias, the Reds’ bullpen is still a disaster. After being so bad that they literally set records in 2016, their relievers combined to post the fourth-worst ERA in the majors this past year. 16 relievers pitched at least ten innings for Cincinnati this season, and nobody outside of Iglesias contributed more than 0.50 Win Probability Added (WPA). They’re likely to sign a couple of veterans in free agency, but it’ll be like trying to cover a bullet wound with a band-aid. It’s likely that we’ll see the Reds once again churn through a large number of relievers in hopes that someone will develop into a reliable setup option. Michael Lorenzen will be worth watching; he showed some promise as a multi-inning reliever before collapsing to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in the second half.
Even the lineup isn’t a true strength. Cincinnati finished middle of the pack in most offensive categories, even while playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Most of that lineup will be coming back, but it seems like the Reds will have to hope that high-pedigree hitters Peraza and Jesse Winker can take big steps forward. Even then, it’s not a sure bet that Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler will be able to replicate their 2017 breakout performances. On-base engine Joey Votto will anchor the lineup, but they’d need a lot to break right around him in order to consistently keep up with the runs their pitching staff is likely to allow.
Should the Reds decide to double down on their rebuild, they do have some assets that could help them further strengthen their farm system. Billy Hamilton and Gennett become free agents after the 2019 season. Neither is likely to play October baseball with the Reds before then; many of Cincinnati’s best prospects are still at least two years away, and the money owed to Bailey won’t make things easy on their payroll during that time. I already wrote about a few potential trade partners for Hamilton. Finding a partner for Gennett wouldn’t be too difficult; he’s capable of playing second, third and left field and is coming off the best offensive season of his career (though his continued struggles against lefties could limit his market).
Iglesias is another piece who could bring back a significant haul… recent deals for high-end relievers like Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Ken Giles have all brought back top 100 prospects to the selling teams. Though Iglesias hasn’t yet established himself to the level of Miller or Chapman, it’s easy to see him fetching a return similar to that of Giles.
Breakout infielder Eugenio Suarez could fetch a good return as well. However, since Iglesias and Suarez are both under control for another three seasons, they’re less likely to be traded. Joey Votto could be a trade asset, but his contract has a full no-trade clause, and he’s plainly stated that he doesn’t plan on waiving it.
There’s certainly no guarantee that the Reds will end up trading away Hamilton or Gennett. But if they do, they could look to fill holes in the center and the infield. Phil Ervin and Dilson Herrera are next on the depth chart respectively, but there are some free agent fill-in options as well. Jarrod Dyson, Cameron Maybin and Rajai Davis are examples of free agent center fielders that might get a close look should Hamilton change uniforms. There are a few free agent veterans that could be candidates to fill in as a stopgap at second base until Senzel is ready to take a spot on the big league roster if the team decides to move Gennett, but it seems more likely they would look at internal options or waiver claims.
One big question for the Reds this offseason is whether or not they’ll attempt to unload Bailey’s contract. It’s likely they’d need to eat a significant portion of it even if they do manage to trade him, but it’s possible that a big-budget team might be willing to take a chance on the expensive right-hander. The Phillies, for example, have a lot of payroll space and could afford to take a chance on Bailey rebounding and reestablishing some value. However, it would be difficult to convince any team to take on more than $10MM of his contract. With his value at a low point, the Reds might be best served to open the season with him in the rotation, and hope he can bounce back a bit before the trade deadline. At the very least, he’s better than most of the internal options behind him, and they’d likely spend at least some money on a free agent starter if they traded him, anyway.
It’s difficult to imagine the Reds making any major splashes in free agency. They’ll might sign one or two cheap veteran relievers, but that’s not going to simply fix their bullpen. Perhaps they’ll explore the market for starting pitchers, but unless they manage to retain Cozart, they probably won’t dole out significant money to land a big-name player. Instead, we’ll probably see them make some pitching acquisitions via waiver claim and maybe even the Rule 5 Draft, the latter depending on whether or not they choose to sell off some key pieces.
While the odds are stacked against the Reds posting a winning season in 2018, there are some high-end prospects in their minor league system that are worth being excited about. The next few seasons could prove tough for Cincinnati fans if the Reds choose to have a fire sale, but there’s plenty of upside in the organization, both at the major league level and down on the farm. So, will the Reds tear down their roster even further to supplement that talent? If not, to what extent will they attempt to push through their disadvantages in an effort to win? The Reds’ offseason will be a fun one to track.
Sad just Sad…
Reds fan prayer for Joey Votto:
Dear Lord,
Please keep Joey safe from injury and may his skills not degrade as he gets older.
Amen.
“At the very least, he (Homer Bailey)’s better than most of the internal options behind him,” said no one ever.
Maybe, but it’s not as if the guys listed behind him were any good. I highly doubt Bailey ends up getting traded, now or next season, because there’s not a ton of upside left from a performance standpoint and the contract’s obvious terrible, but he’s probably still better than Tim Adleman, Rookie Davis, Cody Reed and Amir Garrett
I’ll give you Adleman, Davis and maybe Reed. I’m not ready to give up on Garrett yet
Additionally, Robert Stephenson, Tyler Mahle, and the unmentioned Sal Romano (not sure how he got completely overlooked) showed some real promise in the second half.
I still like Garrett a bit, but he was absolutely horrendous this season. My point was that, as of now, I don’t think Kyle was wrong to say that Bailey’s probably a better MLB SP than most of those guys, although I do think he overlooked Romano. I fully expect a handful to hang around for a bit, Mahle and Garrett in particular, but if I had to choose between those guys or Bailey to start a game tomorrow, I’d choose Bailey still (and I’d probably lose). Future, though, of course I’d take Mahle and Garrett.
Stephenson, I’m personally out on because he can’t throw strikes, and while he got some whiffs down the stretch, the walk rate was still sky high.
I failed to understand at the time and still fail to figure out why they game Homie that contract. Six years for a slightly-better-than-.500 pitcher at the time? I know he gave them innings, but six years?
at the time he seemed like a better long term investment then giving a 4-5 year deal to either cueto or latos, cueto seemed like he couldn’t shake the injury bug, and latos was starting to be well known as a clubhouse cancer, and bailey was coming off a 2 no hitter season with it seeming he would only get better
Gennett gets a bit expensive, and the second base position kind of took a downturn this year as a whole, so I’d imagine there’ll be some in interest and he’ll be moved. I’d trade Iglesias now too (obviously assuming there’s as much interest as there should be), because he’s still cheap but the Reds are probably 3 years away. Sign a back-end SP that falls through the cracks, QO Cozart (if he accepts, he’s probably on a bargain price, and, if not, they grab the draft pick), and grab a cheap veteran reliever. I do think the bullpen will sort of improve organically a bit in the coming years. They’ve got a bunch of failed SP prospects, some of whom will flop entirely, but it’s likely that one or two of Reed, Stephenson, Garrett, Romano, etc. can become a worthwhile reliever
Reed is 24 years old, Stephenson is 24 years old, Garrett is 25 years old, and Romano is 24 years old. Lets not call these kids failed SP prospects just yet. I don’t know if you watched them this season but Stephenson and Romano finished the year very strong. Granted Reed and Garrett did not, but it’s not the time to pull the plug on those very talented Lefties.
I didn’t really mean to imply that none of those guys have a chance to be successful starting pitchers, although rereading it, it certainly came off that way. My main point was that at least a few of them (Romano and Reed more likely than the others IMO) will need to be bumped to the bullpen – it’s the nature of prospects, a good bunch don’t hit their ceilings- so I think the bullpen will actually sort itself out in the long-run.
True enough. I think Finnegan needs to go to the pen, as he’s not pitch efficient. Plus he’s coming off major injury. Romano, Reed, and Garrett need more seasoning. I see them as 6th, 7th, and 8th starters for the Reds. Castillo, Stephenson, Mahle should join a Hopefully healthy Bailey and DeSclafani in the rotation. We are going to need 10 plus starters to make it through a season. I think last season they used 16 starters.
I’m hoping Herget makes it to the majors this season, also I think Hernandez will do well in the pen this year. Add Finnegan to that mix of Peralta, Iglesias, and Lorenzen, and the pen should be solid. Hopefully our starters can go deeper into the games this year.
Cautiously optimistic on Hernandez because his stuff is off-the-charts, but he’s never shown any semblance of strike-throwing ability. There’s no real reason not to let those guys continue to start and see which ones stick as of now (and obviously Castillo looks a great grab, so credit to them for both pulling Straily off the scrap heap and then turning him into a great future asset). Attrition rate for pitching prospects is really high though, and I’m not sure I see any way this team contends in either of the next two years like some people on this board, even if they are in a much better spot than they were a year or so ago
I agree about Hernandez. I hope the bring him around slowly. No late innings, and no high pressure situations. Let him enjoy some success in the 1st half of the season.
If the reds go out and spend money on a bullpen and get a reliable CF, they are a playoff team
If the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals’ players are all kidnapped at some point next season, this prediction makes you suspect #1.
Not going to say it’s impossible, Baseball is unpredictable. But, a hell of a lot more would have to break right for the Reds then could be expected to make them competitive in that division.
I agree completely they are not going to win the division, but they were 37 – 39 in the central. They are already competitive against their own division. They were 13 – 20 against both the NL East, and NL West, which is not good, but were horrible in inter league with a 5 – 15. I’d say the goal for 2018 is to reach a .500 mark.
The Yankees bullpen and Mike Trout playing CF wouldn’t make them a playoff team with that rotation..
If Bailey, DeSclafani, Finnegan, Castillo, and Mahle combined magically start 150 games next year combined then they might be a playoff team.
They need to trade for Christian Yelich.
blind kid with no amrs> Homer Bailey
I like the Orioles trading Trumbo and O’Day for Bailey and Hamilton with the Reds kicking in some money. Helps the Reds get out of that contract and helps their bullpen problems. Helps the Orioles get out of two contracts that aren’t awful but aren’t good, and it gives them a better defensive CF and an arm, albeit not a good one, for the rotation.
Can’t see why the Reds would do this unless the Orioles pick up a large amount of Bailey’s contract, in which case the Orioles should just sign a real pitcher. Doesn’t really do anything for Cincinnati (O’Day’s too old to be useful by the time they get good again, and Trumbo’s both redundant and terrible)
No offense but where would the Reds play Trumbo? Either Winker or Schebler appear to be slotted for rightfield unless dealt themselves. There is no DH everyday in the NL unlike the AL and Joey Votto plays first for Cincy. I don’t see that scenario as likely at all.
I don’t know the Orioles club well enough to say if that would be good for them, but I know that would be a very bad fit for the Reds.
I don’t think Giles is a great comp for an Iglesias deal because Giles had more team control with less guaranteed money.
So many points in this article make it clear that the writer hasn’t followed the Reds at all, and probably hasn’t even talked to anyone who has, either. So much stuff relative to both their short and long term outlook. Doesn’t mention Sal Romano once. Doesn’t mention the three starting corner outfielders. Barely mentions the young 2b candidates blocked behind Gennett. No mention of the surplus MLB-ready starting prospects, even in context of the bullpen help.
No mention of Wandy Peralta. Or the various power arms competing for the 2018 bullpen. I agree they’ll likely sign a couple of free agent veteran relievers, but anyone who follows the Reds can tell you the 2017 bullpen was very different, much better, than 2016.
As Redsfan48 points out Stephenson, Romano, and Mahle all showed real promise in the second half. Any Reds fan would tell you that Luis Castillo was the team’s best starter, albeit for half the season. Stephenson had made big improvements from his ugly time in the bullpen, including adding another pitch which he more effectively threw for strikes.
Homer Bailey’s value is at a low point? Huh? After missing nearly two years and making a healthy return it’s NOW at a low point? Great. As somebody as high on him as anybody – I think he gradually improved and should do alright in 2018 – I don’t think he’s at all tradeable, though. If a team is going to gamble on him rebuilding value it’ll have to be the Reds.
Schebler had an impressive year, outside of a bad July or whenever where he tried to play through a shoulder injury – nothing about his season seemed unsustainable at all. Except his .248 BABIP lowering his numbers. One notion discussed among Reds fans is playing Schebler in CF around Duvall and Winker, following a Hamilton trade. Obviously the CF defense from Schebler would be the opposite end of the spectrum from Hamilton, but the three corner outfielders should produce lots of runs. It’s not my preferred outcome, but it’s something to consider beyond a free agent. If Schebler and Winker are the corner guys, what to do with Duvall becomes a big offseason topic.
The Reds unexpectedly lost their two top starters (Disco, Finnegan) basically for the whole year, while Bailey was delayed by bone chips. They were forced to turn to a bunch of scrubs who put up terrible numbers, and overworked the bullpen, but I think this article really misses the big picture. Disco and Finnegan are (supposedly) healthy. Bailey is healthy. Luis Castillo, Sal Romano, Robert Stephenson, and Tyler Mahle look like major league starters. Amir Garrett and Cody Reed definitely have all the raw talent needed, too, if they can figure out their mechanics. Aside from Bailey and Disco these guys are all 26 or younger.
I think the Reds will again score a lot of runs next year but, with a much improved pitching staff, and win a lot more games. Basically everything went wrong for the starters in the first half, which had a ripple effect all season, but after watching this team I think the expressed concern that the team can’t/won’t do well in 2018 or 2019 is just nonsense. It feels like basically where the team was heading into 2010.
I just don’t feel like this article is at MLBTradeRumor’s usual level. Oh well.
Normally don’t respond to these, but this comment is really misleading and I don’t want readers to be confused by it.
I’ll start off by admitting Sal Romano probably at least deserved a mention as someone behind the starters mentioned low in the pecking order. But to say that he showed “real promise” in the second half isn’t quite accurate… he walked almost four batters per nine innings and showed no real strikeout upside. His 4.45 ERA and 4.47 xFIP aren’t impressive at all. While his four September starts were better than what he did in August, the quality of opponents faced probably gave him a huge boost, and even then he struck out fewer than 8 batters per nine innings. It’s not as though he has any real pedigree, either; he didn’t rank within the top 10 on any major prospect lists. That’s not to say he couldn’t be something, but I don’t think he’s worth the hype your placing on him.
Robert Stephenson may have made some small improvements, but he still walked 5.59 batters per nine innings, and in my book, any pitcher who walks more than five batters per nine isn’t viable as a big league starter. His 4.98 xFIP also says he got really lucky with fly balls and BABIP… something I don’t think is likely to repeat itself.
Wandy Peralta is a replacement level reliever who doesn’t have great command. You say the Reds bullpen was “very different, much better” than the 2016 iteration. While they weren’t quite as historically bad, Reds relievers not named Raisel Iglesias combined for a full win BELOW replacement level in 2017. The competition for the 2018 bullpen is probably “anyone who can throw strikes”.
You say there’s barely a mention of the 2B prospects (plural) blocked behind Gennett… I did mention Nick Senzel, but there really isn’t anyone else worth mentioning. If you’re referencing Shed Long, he only just got his first taste of AA ball last season and hit .227… he’s still a long way off from the majors and is unlikely to contribute in 2018.
in 18 starts, Homer Bailey pitched to a 6.43 ERA and 16% K rate, and he’s 31. At least before the surgery there seemed to be a chance he could come back and pitch like his old self. Maybe his value isn’t at its lowest of all time, but it’s definitely at a low point.
Schebler didn’t have an impressive year. He was a league average starting position player by wRC+ and below league average by WAR when you factor in his defense. His .307 OBP was terrible. Sure, he hit 30 homers, but even that’s not impressive when you consider today’s home run climate, and the fact that Schebler didn’t contribute much else to the team. I’m not convinced anyone would agree with you that Schebler should garner any serious consideration as a full-time center fielder, especially with a -1.8 UZR/150 mark in right this year. In any case, the wild hypothetical is certainly not a mandatory mention in an offseason outlook post. You mention the topic of what to do with Duvall if Schebler and Winker are the corner outfielders… Duvall and his .301 OBP probably shares playing time with them.
I’m sorry if you’re a Reds fan who was hoping to see a more optimistic outlook on their 2018 season, but looking at it objectively, I simply don’t think they’re likely to succeed. You cite a much-improved pitching staff as their path to contention, but even DeSclafani and Finnegan have never proven themselves to be better than a #3 starter on most teams. Cincinnati is in a stacked division with the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals, all of who are more complete teams by far. Even the Pirates have the potential to bounce back from last year and compete. The Reds just don’t seem likely to take the pennant, and will probably struggle to even finish at .500.
I think the name he’s probably looking for on the 2b front is Dilson Herrera who is currently injured. The Reds announcers have tried to spin it as Homer/Stephenson/Romano ending strong, which they did. How much of that is small sample size or as you said bad competition remains to be seen.
I do think we should see improvement if for nothing else the number of starting options we should have. Guys like Adleman and Wojo and Lisoverto Bonilla shouldn’t be taking the field for us unless we have yet another rash of injuries for a third straight year. Between Disco/Finny/Homer/Castillo/ Mahle/Romano/Stephenson all of whom have at least shown late season upward mobility or have been good preinjury and the guys who haven’t yet figured it out in the bigs like Garrett and Reed and others there is some hope.at least. I don’t think we’ll be historically bad like the last two years in the pitching staff.
I’d say 77-85 would be a good record guestimate before any offseason moves are made. I doubt we’ll do anything more than another Feldman and Storen type deal in the offseason.
I doubt you;ll reply again, but do you see a Duvall/Schebler platoon as a good possibility or will one be dealt? We need Winker’s OBP up there, I’d like to see Winker/Cozart/Votto or just Winker/Votto at the top to set up for the sluggers, Billy should be batting ninth. I normally don’t like batting guys ninth but with a speed demon like Billy it’s a waste to bat him 8th and have the pitcher bunt him over all the time. 9th is the right spot for him in my eyes.
I could definitely see a Schebler/Duvall platoon coming to fruition. It’s worth noting that Schebler didn’t have very large platoon splits this past season, but that’s mostly due to a .219 BABIP against right-handers which is likely to normalize.
It’s possible one of them could be dealt, but both come at such a cheap cost to the team and with so many remaining years of control, I don’t see either one bringing back a significant enough haul to entice the Reds into trading one or the other. For now, a platoon scenario at a cheap cost seems more likely.