MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
The 2016 Winter Meetings marked the beginning of a new White Sox strategy: a total rebuild. Gone are Chris Sale, Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana, Todd Frazier, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle, Anthony Swarzak, Dan Jennings, Melky Cabrera, and Miguel Gonzalez. The 2017 team played to their low expectations, but the club’s record was an afterthought as the White Sox continued acquiring top-shelf young talent throughout the season. In terms of trades, most of the heavy lifting has been done as we head into the offseason.
Guaranteed Contracts
- James Shields, SP: White Sox responsible for $10MM in 2018 salary as well as $2MM buyout on 2019 option.
- Nate Jones, RP: $5.2MM through 2018. Includes club options for 2019-21.
- Tim Anderson, SS: $24.15MM through 2022. Includes club options for 2023-24.
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Al Alburquerque (5.030) – $1.1MM projected salary
- Avisail Garcia (4.167) – $6.7MM
- Zach Putnam (4.135) – $1.4MM
- Jake Petricka (4.044) – $1.1MM
- Jose Abreu (4.000) – $17.9MM
- Danny Farquhar (3.136) – $1.5MM
- Leury Garcia (3.025) – $1.2MM
- Carlos Rodon (2.168) – $2.0MM
- Yolmer Sanchez (2.134) – $2.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Alburquerque, Putnam, Petricka, Farquhar
Free Agents
[Chicago White Sox Depth Chart; Chicago White Sox Payroll Information]
GM Rick Hahn has executed his plan perfectly so far. The White Sox were able to give fans a glimpse of the future as Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo Lopez made their team debuts this summer. They’ve got six of the game’s top 100 prospects waiting in the wings with Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, Luis Robert, Blake Rutherford, Dylan Cease, and Alec Hansen. Zack Collins, Dane Dunning, and Carson Fulmer follow on their top prospect list. And don’t forget about Tim Anderson and Carlos Rodon, who have already experienced big league success even if they struggled in 2017. As the rebuild enters its second offseason, what’s left to do on the transaction side?
The White Sox still have two marketable veterans: Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia. Both were bright spots on a 2017 club that lost 95 games. Abreu, 31 in January, experienced a power resurgence on his way to becoming one of the five best-hitting first basemen in the game this year. The White Sox control him through 2019 as an arbitration eligible player, and MLBTR projects a salary close to $18MM just for 2018. His price tag could be in the $40MM range for 2018-19.
Abreu’s rising salary is not a problem for the Sox, who have next to nothing on the books. If the White Sox entertain trades for Abreu, his salary could take smaller payroll teams out of the mix. Still, he arguably could be the best hitter on the market aside from J.D. Martinez and will require a much smaller financial commitment than Martinez or fellow first baseman Eric Hosmer. Abreu also brings reliability that is unmatched by 2017 breakouts like Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso.
Hahn will likely treat Abreu as he did Jose Quintana last winter: set a price, listen to offers, and hold him if those offers fall short. Penciling Abreu into the third spot in the order for the 2018 White Sox would likely please fans. An extension would be pushing too far, however, as Abreu is unlikely to provide surplus value in his age-33 season and beyond.
Right fielder Avisail Garcia is also controlled for two more seasons through arbitration. He presents a different calculus following a surprising season in which he hit .330/.380/.506. Garcia, 27 in June, should be in the prime of his career. He’s also less proven than Abreu, having shown a subpar bat until 2017.
We project Garcia to earn $6.7MM in 2018, so he could be a bargain even though no one expects him to manage a .392 batting average on balls in play again. South Side Sox notes that Garcia’s expected weighted on-base average (found using Statcast data) suggests his new level is that of a well above-average player. Extending Garcia before he proves himself further could result in a discount for the White Sox, if the player is willing. If the numbers don’t add up for Hahn, Garcia becomes a trade candidate.
Trade chips aside, the White Sox must field a Major League team in 2018. While the 2017 season was surprisingly fun in spite of the team’s record, fans will expect progress in the standings with a more respectable product on the field as the rebuild enters its second phase.
The bullpen is an obvious area for Hahn to address this winter. Due to the trades of Robertson, Kahnle, Swarzak, Jennings, and Tyler Clippard, as well as injuries to Nate Jones and Zach Putnam, manager Rick Renteria had to survive with perhaps MLB’s least recognizable bullpen. 27-year-old Juan Minaya, a waiver claim from last year, was an up-and-down guy for the Sox until late June, and by mid-August he became the team’s closer. 30-year-old Gregory Infante signed a minor league deal in January and worked his way into high-leverage innings by season’s end. Most likely, Chicago’s bullpen will continue to present great opportunities to the game’s reclamation projects, especially after helping Swarzak and Kahnle turn around their careers. There’s room for mid-range additions as well, given the team’s sparse payroll commitments. While Hahn won’t be looking at Wade Davis or Greg Holland, the White Sox may add a few veterans in the $3-6MM per year range in addition to a likely significant number of minor league pacts.
The rotation is more settled. Veteran James Shields will retain a spot in the last year of his contract. Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito are in. Carlos Rodon will claim a spot, but his timetable is wide open currently as he recovers from shoulder surgery. As MLB.com’s Scott Merkin explained in September, Carson Fulmer is a contender for a spot and Michael Kopech will likely make his way up midseason. There seems to be room for at least one veteran addition, perhaps with last year’s $6MM deal with Derek Holland serving as a model. Free agent reclamation projects include Clay Buchholz, Jeremy Hellickson, Francisco Liriano, Wade Miley, Hector Santiago, and Chris Tillman.
The White Sox may also consider minor additions on the position player side. After going with Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith behind the dish this year, the Sox could make a low-key veteran catcher addition from a list of many options. Leury Garcia showed well as the starting center fielder when he wasn’t battling injuries. Adam Engel and Charlie Tilson will be in the center field mix as well. Nicky Delmonico had a strong 166-plate appearance debut and should see time at left field and designated hitter. Yolmer Sanchez could be penciled in at third base with Moncada getting the nod at second and Anderson at shortstop. While they aren’t expected to contend for big names, the White Sox would benefit from adding both outfield and infield depth for 2018.
As Steve Adams outlined last month, the White Sox should consider taking advantage of their low payroll commitment to further boost their prospect stash. After arbitration raises, the team projects to have around $45MM committed to the 2018 payroll. Steve named bad contract examples such as Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis, Yasmany Tomas, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Wei-Yin Chen. The White Sox could agree to take on a contract like that in order to pry young players away from the club that is currently saddled with said contract. In the process, the Sox would also be supplementing their own 2018 team.
With most of the building blocks of the future already in the organization, the next phase of the White Sox rebuild will hinge on player development. The 2017-18 offseason figures to be much less eventful than the previous one for White Sox fans. Rick Hahn’s work is far from over, but the next White Sox playoff team is starting to come into view.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The only young prospects are from other teams. They still can’t draft or develop their own talent. Anderson is a question mark and looks more like an outfielder than a shortstop. It’s amazing how Williams has kept his job! But then again nobody is accountable with any of Reinsdorfs teams.
Tim Anderson hasn’t been playing baseball long. He’s just a really raw baseball player. He was such a tremendous athlete, he tore up the minors without refining his defense or learning any plate discipline. Hopefully it can be corrected but a SS with bad defense who strikes out 150+ times a year isn’t going to cut it.
Thats how a rebuild works. You trade your MLB talent for prospects. They needed to re build for a reason
if you can’t draft/develop your talent, in 5 years, other teams will look at the depth chart and begin to lose respect for the development team and scouts of our era and gain respect for Hahn’s work as a gm
I got banned from two local Sox chats for making the points. Sox fans can be very dellusional. There is no guarantee the Sox will contend by 2020.
Frankly, they have been in a rebuilding state since Reinsdorf bought the team. He got the Sox for pennies on the dollar but this cabal of his are in this for profit. I once heard Reinsdorf tell Jack Brickhouse winning championships cost too much money.
I knew then the Sox were doomed.
5 post season apperances in 36 years and none in the last 9.
Even if this handful out side talent pans out, he’ll still need to spent 175 to 200 million to contend. That will never happen.
Right. I’m sure you were banned because they were delusional. Not because you argue they’ve been rebuilding for 30 years, which just so happens to include the teams first world series in the last hundred.
“Even if this handful out side talent pans out, he’ll still need to spent 175 to 200 million to contend. That will never happen.”
That right there – that tells me you don’t know what you’re talking about entirely. Six teams had an opening day payroll of 175 million dollars or more. Three of them (Yanks, BoSox, Dodgers) made the playoffs. All of them had the benefit of an extremely large market.
Additionally, four of the playoff teams this year spent less than $130 million on payroll. The Diamondbacks had an opening day payroll of only $93 million – that’s less than the rebuilding White Sox!
Salary has NOTHING to do with being a contender. Especially with the route the White Sox are going. They’ll be a contender when their young players are supplemented with free agent signings, but even then the cost controlling nature of rookie scale deals will keep their payroll very low as they start to compete. It won’t be until after they’ve been winning for a while that the team will be expensive. As examples, look at the Indians and Astros. They both have very low payrolls.
Reinsdorf loves fans like you.
Isn’t the Astros payroll under $150 mil? And that’s with adding Verlander.
on the subject of the dbacks payroll, most of it is taken up by greinke, the rest by pollock tomas and goldy, which proves further that small-market teams can win
lol I hope you know ALOT of our development team was replaced recently and within the past 3-4 our drafts have been much better
Low payroll teams can certainly win, but saying salary has NOTHING to do with contending is just silly.
The Sox have drafted fairly well in the past couple of years and have made some key acquisitions in the international market.The only reason why you do not see those guys is because Hahn cleaned out a lot of top top prospects from other orgs.
Reinsdorf has always been too loyal. Sox have had some draft success, like Chris Sale, but it’s always been more skewed toward pitchers than hitters. I don’t really care too much, though; the Sox have a deep and talented farm system even after graduating a few of their guys. It’ll be fun in a couple years.
White Sox have a brighter future then then the Red Sox…
Different points along the cycle of winning. Sale sucked in his first postseason, but I expect he’ll be better next year. They need more bats and someone to replace Price. But with Betts, Bennintendi, JBJ, and others, there’s enough young talent there to make the playoffs next year as well.
The White Sox’ future is only bright if their prospects work out. The Red Sox already have guys who have worked out well.
Think you’re right. I heard in Steve Adams chat room that he loves White Sox
Steve both loves and hates every team.
What happened to Marr Davidson? Didn’t he hit 25 long ones, he plays third base?
Can’t walk or make contact. I don’t know if Yolmer’s going to turn out better but Davidson didn’t earn the job.
The guy had 25 homers, and probably would have had more if not for injuries and the Sox trying to look at other players. He has earned a place on the club, even only at DH/1B
I felt that he has fallen out of favor on account of not doing anything outside of those home runs. He was replacement level and did about 300 innings at 3B.
So basically he’s Kyle Schwarber without the “Babe Ruth” fanfare no?
Good one…
Correct!
He’s basically Kyle Schwarber without a huge World Series performance and a ring. Hard to believe, but in the Nats series, Schwarber ended up being the better of the defensive players in left. Two big Werth misplays really cost the Nats.
He had a huge series in the WS. Not arguing that. What I’m saying is he is a 1 tool player that will never be more than a 25 HR, .220 BA guy with subpar defense. Trade him to an AL team to DH while he is still worth something
I think as Schwarber helped his team earn a WS ring, I would take Davidson getting to that point.
Agree. Kyle Schwarber was the most overhyped player in MLB for at least six months.
Does a pre-arb salary significantly above league minimum affect projected arbitration figures? I have to assume it does, because how else would Abreu be projected for nearly $18M his second go-around?
Last year, I believe his projection was around $12M and he settled for just under $11M. That had to have been influenced by his uniquely high pre-arb salary, right? Otherwise, you’d only expect those kind of arbitration projections from a generational superstar. Abreu is good, but he falls well short of that.
Once you enter the arb process, it’s a matter of determining a raise on the prior season’s salary.
So, strictly speaking, Abreu’s pre-arb earnings are not part of the calculus here. You just figure the raise and tack it on what he earned last year.
But, of course, the pre-arb $ did matter in setting his first-year arb salary. Tim looked into that before he agreed to his contract, b/c it was an unusual situation. mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/jose-abreu-arbitration-… Abreu ended up getting less than we guessed he would, but it’s still a huge starting point.
Abreu would be perfect for the redsox but they don’t have the prospects left to get him or the money to get him if they wanna stay under the luxury tax. But other than them I don’t see many fits, Seattle maybe but they don’t have the prospects or the money really, Giants need pop but same situation and they don’t want belt in the outfield, cardinals but idk of he’s their guy they probably want a third baseman,
I would love to see him as a cardinal but then you almost have to trade carpenter if your serious about improving the defense. Either way I expect gyrko to go and he would be a nice cheap fit for the white sox…
The White Sox won’t be trading for a nice cheap fit if they’re trading Abreu. They would be trading for nice young talent. I’m sure they’d happily take Carson Kelly back despite him having an awful first showing in the bigs.
I think at this point in their rebuild, they should look into adding established players, to pair with the young talent, like The Cubs did a few years ago. They added Dexter Fowler, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Miguel Montero, Ben Zobrist, and Jason Heyward, to pair with young players, Javy Baez, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Hendricks.
I think they are still a season (or two) away from considering that. With so many questions about how players will develop and basicly no bullpen. I could see them adding a good corner outfielder sooner than later though..
Machado would be a fantastic fit. But like 90% of the teams, there’s that whole $300mm salary thing that will be a holdback
Yea, agree that they are still at least a season away from considering it, but it should be put into plans. They still have guys who aren’t fully developed, such as Eloy, and Kopech. By the end of 2018, they should be looking into a few big name players.
Like you said, I could also see them adding a corner outfield piece sooner, rather than later. I could see them being interested in Jay Bruce, who is coming off a strong year. 2018-2019’s market looks to be filled with some big names, including Blackmon, Harper, Beltre, Donaldson, Josh Harrison, Brian Dozier (though with the corners looking to be secured by Abreu, and Davidson, and second probably being held by Moncada, I couldn’t see them being too interested in Beltre, Donaldson, Harrison, or Dozier).
Next year, they should shoot to be a 500 team. By 2019, if most of the prospects they have now, develop the way they expect, then they should be contenders.
They’re in a division with two playoff teams, one of which will certainly improve (Twins) as their young players develop and the other will be the best team in the league probably for a few more years. Saying in year 2 of a rebuild “we should be .500” shouldn’t be a statement made in a vacuum. For the White Sox to play .500 ball in that division, they’ll have to be better than average. That doesn’t seem reasonable to me. Getting 70+ wins seems a bit more logical given circumstance. It’s not like they’re signing significant free agents. They’ll graduate a few players, pick up some fliers, and trade veterans off before the season/midseason.
Teams turn around quick with this type of rebuild because it all happens at once. But don’t expect it next year, its way too soon.
I agree the Twins are on the upswing, but Cleveland walks a payroll tightrope every single year. They have the players now to keep rolling the division, but who knows who they’ll get to keep, and for how long.
Flipping bullpen pieces would really help, and some starting pitchers as well. Maybe Alburquerque, Yoshihisa Hirano, and a few guys on minor league deals. For the starting pitchers, maybe a few guys from the KBO such as Eric Hacker or Brooks Raley, and some guys on minor league deals as well.
I’m intrigued by the idea of picking up the 63M left on Ellsbury’s deal, a la Tyler Clippard, in addition to an Avisail Garcia package for some of the Yanks shiny prospects.
They trade Abreu and I’m done with them. He put up numbers not to many can without hitters to protect him. He helps all the Latin rookies and we got plenty. He is one of if not the most underrated hitters. If he goes I go hope it’s to Boston. Miss Sale. Enough is enough
Especially b/c he wants to play for the pale hoses & who better than Jose for all these latin prospects to learn from . Keep Avi see if he can find a power stroke Avi plays hard. I expect Hahn to field a playoff caliber team by 2019 getting rid of those 2 wont allow us to do so