Generally, of course, Jonathan Lucroy’s stock is down on the heels of a disappointing season. He entered the year with a chance at earning Russell Martin-type money — $82MM over five years — but now won’t scrape that stratosphere.
That said, there’s still a lot of value in the veteran. Just how much? Let’s take a look.
First and foremost, it’s important to note just how good Lucroy was from 2012 through 2016. After all, there’s a reason that folks thought he could meet or exceed that Martin contract. In 641 games over that span, Lucroy posted an excellent .291/.353/.465 batting line that rated about twenty percent above the league-average output. For a catcher that also was regarded among the best at defending his position, those are monster numbers.
That five-year run serves as a notable backdrop for what happened in 2017. Lucroy struggled badly out of the gates, slashing just .242/.297/.338 in his 306 plate appearances with the Rangers. He hit just four home runs in that stretch after drilling 24 in the prior season in 544 trips to the plate. Just as suddenly, though, Lucroy bounced back upon his summer trade to the Rockies. In his 175 turns, the veteran posted a .310/.429/.437 mark while drawing 27 walks against just 19 strikeouts. The power did not fully return — he hit only two more long balls — but clearly Lucroy was again an above-average offensive performer, even after accounting for the altitude boost.
So, how does one frame the recent years? Was the first half of 2017 just a detour? Or should we figure in Lucroy’s tepid 2015 season and isolate his excellent 2016 season as the outlier? What about that waning power?
In all likelihood, clubs will land somewhere in the middle on all of this. It’s certainly quite promising that Lucroy has restored his plate discipline nearly to the levels it stood in 2014, when he walked (10.1%) nearly as often as he struck out (10.8%) over 655 plate appearances. But his isolated slugging mark has now sat below the league average in two of the past three seasons. Plus, Lucroy managed only an anemic 22.3% hard-hit rate in 2017 while his groundball rate soared to over fifty percent for the first time in his career.
Of course, there’s still the matter of Lucroy’s work in the field to be accounted for. There was a time when his mastery of the dark arts behind the dish significantly bolstered the 31-year-old’s value. When he posted 6.2 fWAR in 2014, that was arguably an understatement, as it failed to account for Lucroy’s otherworldly framing skills and management of the pitching staff over a 153-game grind.
Now, the picture seems quite a bit different. Framing metrics panned Lucroy’s work over the first half of 2017. Though he ticked upward in Colorado, it’s still a far sight from the days when Lucroy was the poster child for the newly illuminated art of strike gathering. Still, he drew positive grades as recently as 2016, and it would be rather surprising for such a remarkable degradation in skill to occur so suddenly, so perhaps there’s a bounceback (or another explanation) here. And it’s worth noting that Lucroy has drawn plaudits for his presence on the defensive side from Rockies skipper Bud Black.
All told, the signals leave quite a lot of room for interpretation. No doubt many organizations will feel differently than others about what to expect from Lucroy. All will value the fact that he has been one of only four catchers to top three thousand plate appearances since the start of 2012 (and one of only three to post more than twenty WAR in that span). He seems clearly worthy of being awarded a regular job, but guessing at an earning range is more difficult. And that depends, too, on market factors.
Obviously there’s reason to expect that the Rockies could be interested in a return. The team has indicated satisfaction with Lucroy’s work and could use him just as much next year as this, though there are also internal options to be considered. Lucroy himself has made clear he’d welcome a chance to return. Beyond that, the possibilities are a bit more difficult to suss out. Few contenders have really clear needs behind the plate, though contending organizations such as the Diamondbacks, Angels, and perhaps Nationals could consider a move.
Other possible suitors could yet emerge. But Lucroy will face some competition. It helps that Kurt Suzuki has decided to remain with the Braves. But Welington Castillo is likely to decline his player option and Alex Avila will return to the open market. Chris Iannetta had a strong year, and he’s one of several solid veterans that may represent more cost-conscious options for organizations that prefer a timeshare at the position rather than paying more to land a heavily-used regular.
Recent comps are of limited utility, too. Big dollars have gone to Martin and Brian McCann (five years, $85MM), but as noted at the outset that seems highly unlikely here. Looking at other significant, multi-year deals, though, there’s a big gulf between those larger contracts and the three-year pacts signed by Jason Castro ($24.5MM) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia ($21MM). Lucroy has a strong argument to out-earn that pair, so it seems reasonable to anticipate at least a three-year arrangement with some possibility for a fourth.
Perhaps Francisco Cervelli’s three-year, $31MM extension represents a more noteworthy marker in this case. It’s telling, too, that Matt Wieters was guaranteed $21MM over two years despite a clearly inferior record to that of Lucroy, perhaps further suggesting that Lucroy ought to command an eight-figure annual commitment. Ultimately, it’s easy to imagine pursuit by two or more determined organizations pushing up the guarantee past the Cervelli level. Demand is less than crystal clear, so there’s some downside risk here as well, though it helps that Lucroy will not be subject to a qualifying offer since he was dealt in the middle of the season. Regardless of how it all shakes out, two things are clear after Lucroy’s 2017 campaign: he won’t be paid like the top-flight player he was for the prior five seasons, but he’ll still earn a hefty commitment when he hits the open market for the first time.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
hamelin4mvp
3 yr. $36m
Seems about right
realgone2
No Braves. No Braves!
biff_pocoroba
Before this season and the breakout of Suzuki and continued solid play of Flowers, I was hoping they’d go Lucroy’s way. But I think you’re safe now.
padam
3/$45m or 4/$56m.
Cheeseball
Absolutely. I could see the O’s making a push if Castillo leaves. However I feel Lucroy would be better off staying in the NL. I wouldn’t rule out Boston either (especially for his agent to drive up his price)
empiresam
Boston? Catcher is one position they can still save on. Vasquez surprised with the bat this year and Leon did the same the year before. Both are superior defensively and the power differential isn’t enough to warrant an offer. He should stay in CO maybe on a one year deal to restore his value.
jbigz12
Why would the orioles go for lucroy? Sisco is the #2 catching prospect in baseball. Joseph coming back next year. Only catcher we’d sign would be on a 1 year deal but I don’t even see that
kbarr888
Anyone who pays that price……..is a Fool.
mattblaze13
Take a 1 year deal, rebuild stock
lowtalker1
What stock? Couldn’t even recover in Denver
11Bravo
Did you even read the article? Look at his numbers after the move to Colorado trade, his stock definitely rose after the move.
lowtalker1
I did
Still was bad
He went from a launch pad to the place the ball drops
His ba was loooooow
Everything was loooooow
kbarr888
Now I why you’re called “lowtalker1″……..
Here’s his slash line from his time in Colorado…….
.310/.429/.437/.865
Looks pretty respectable to me……..LOL
11Bravo
Not going to argue with this mouth breather. Not worth my time.
Chris Sale Amateur Tailor
i think there is an error in the second paragraph relating to Lucroys plate appearances over 4 years
Chris Sale Amateur Tailor
Really good article though
tharrie0820
I find the lack of power after switching to colors very concerning
Realtexan
Honestly Lucroy would be doing good if he can get a 2 year deal. He’s on the downside of his career.
kbarr888
Maybe a 2 year deal with a couple “Team options”…….offers some security with flexibility to vacate the deal if he tanks….
Soxman81
Would love to see the Sox sign him. I think he’s solid the next 2-3 years with the upside to be an All-Star.
bollo
White Sox
Sky14
Imagine that is 641 games not plate appearances.
stubby66
It’s time to come home Lucroy to Milwaukee and finish out your career with us and get back to the numbers you can put up here
11Bravo
I was thinking the same thing. Up and coming team starving for veteran leadership, a hole at the catching position, and they have plenty of salary room. Makes perfectly good sense.
NeilAlien
Brewers did just fine with their patchwork catching staff this season, at a fraction of Lucroy market cost.
daveineg
Not sure what you mean by hole. Manny Pina slashed ..279/.327/.424 in 330 ABs and has a very strong arm. The Brewers also have Stephen Vogt .who while he can’t throw, did hit 8 HR in just 122 AB’s bringing a LH bat and much veteran leadership. He’s under control for 2 more seasons. I don’t see them bringing back Luc. They have lots of production coming back for minimal investment.
bbatardo
I could see him getting like 4/$50M with a club option and some sort of buy out.
Doc Halladay
That “master of the dark arts” line to describe Lucroy’s D may be the best line ever written at MLBTR.
Out of place Met fan
Same thought crossed my mind. Literary excellence
SundownDevil
I used that in a comment days ago about the dark arts of sabermetrics, so thank you for the compliments and the credit from MLBTR.
xabial
MLBTR must’ve really enjoyed that exchange.
I know I did 🙂
For all those wondering, it was the article where Twins extended their Manager three years. It was a funny exchange between SundownDevil and JD396 made a clever remark regarding SundownDevil’s use of the phrase: “dark arts of sabermetrics”
Where the ‘dark arts’ may have been born: : )
mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/twins-to-extend-paul-mo…
mlb1225
His 2017 was a lot like his 2015. Coming off a really good year, he had a down year. Even the numbers are similar.
oldleftylong
Cut the beard, man, cut the ugly beard,
SundownDevil
Agreed. The Duck Dynasty Republican ‘Merica Era is over.
mateodh
Still think the Indians would make a ton of sense and be poetic.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Lol why don’t I see Astros fans being all butthurt towards Cole Hamels blocking a trade to them? And unlike Hamels, Lucroy actually had a legitimate reason for blocking that trade.
redsfan48
It wouldn’t make ANY sense unless it was on a one-year deal. Francisco Mejia is the best catching prospect in the game and is probably only a year (or less) away from being ML ready
Robertowannabe
One thing that also hurts Lucroy in getting Martin numbers is that tail off in Martin after signing such a huge deal in conjunction with Lucroy already tailing off. As kbarr888 said above, only a fool would offer a huge contract to Lucroy,
Solaris601
If I was a team looking for a solid, long-term solution behind the plate I’d approach Miami about JT Realmuto. If you don’t have the prospects to offer (Angels), then Lucroy might be worth a 2-year $24M offer, but I’d def have another solid defender in the gold to catch 1/3 of the games.
redsfan48
The price, in terms of prospects, that a team would have to pay for Realmuto is going to be really high. I doubt the Marlins trade him yet unless they are blown away with an offer, they have plenty of club control left on him so they could always revisit the idea in July or even next winter.
cxcx
Wide range from him depending on how market shapes up and whether he wants to rebuild value. Anything from a Wieters-like deal (but a bit larger, say 2./25) to a big deal like 4/64.
I lean towards something like the latter from the Red Sox, Dombrowski brings in a big name potential All-Star where they don’t really have one, not a crippling cost, no one locked in at first or dh long term so they could move him off catcher later if need be.
jbigz12
Anyone giving lucroy 4 years will be regretting it. Showed 0 pop this year and we’re talking about a catcher who’s turning 32. Don’t think that’ll look so hot in a few years. If the pop doesn’t come back you don’t really want a guy hitting 10 hrs playing 1st or Dh for you.
Arnold Ziffel
Would like to see 2/3 year deal with Colorado.
Marc Downs
I mean he is signed to Smackdown Live. I am not sure they let him go.
Cardinal
Lucroy…a solid catcher defensively. Great for a team that doesn’t count on him offensively. Would be a great fit for Colorado with the core players already on their team.
Bert Freeman
Fan favorite when Luc was with the Brewers. Complain numerous times about a contract extension. Why did they trade Lucroy so easily. Guess the front office knew something the fan base did not. Still wish him the best.
11Bravo
I wouldn’t say easily. Brewers got a great return in Brinson and Ortiz. A “dump” trade would be if the Brewers got all lottery tickets in return.
daveineg
Brinson is their number one ;prospect. Both Ortiz and Brinson are top 100 prospects. They got Swarzak from the White Sox for the other ;piece in that deal Cordell. Swarzak gave them a big boost, It was a decent haul for Lucroy.
Bill 23
Would love to see the Rockies sign him, and keep him in Denver. He will not be an offensive liability, he will handle and help mentor a young starting pitcher core, and also be able to bring along a young catching group in Denver. It would be exciting to watch him with that young core for the next 3-4 years. The Rockies should be a good contending team during this time. Perfect situation for a good veteran catcher.
joew
i sit here thinking man the pirates should snap him up while he’s “low” 3 year 40M with and heck add in an option or three.
Should that happen Cervelli can fairly easily be traded for low cost bull pen or mid range prospects even with his lower value due to injury… . It would ‘only’ be around 18M more with an extra year of control
yeah it isn’t happening but fun to think about.. plus it seems alot of fans are keen on Cervelli for some reason or other.