Phillies president Andy MacPhail discussed his team’s winter plans in an end-of-season press conference today at Citizens Bank Park. Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Daily News and Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia (two links) have the details….
- The Phillies will likely continue to have a “relatively low payroll” in 2018, a year after slightly topping the $100MM in their Opening Day payroll. With only around $6MM on the books for next season, however, that gives the club plenty of room to spend if necessary. The team will at least be open to creative spending, as MacPhail said that ownership “did not react extraordinarily well in the beginning” to the news of another low-payroll campaign. “Ultimately, they’re OK with it with one proviso: that if an opportunity presents itself, we do not exclude it. They understand the program,” MacPhail said.
- One possibility is that the Phillies could use some of their payroll space to take on bad contracts from other teams. “Most of you guys have written about how the ’18 (free-agent) class is a little on the light side, all the big guns come out in ’19. It may well be that teams that want to compete in that ’19 arena shed some salary that we won’t anticipate right now in ’18. So we have to keep our eye out for that, as well,” MacPhail said. The club took on payroll last winter while acquiring Howie Kendrick, Pat Neshek, and Clay Buchholz in trades, and flipped Kendrick and Neshek in midseason trades for prospects.
- While the rotation needs some serious upgrades, MacPhail hinted that the Phillies were likelier to obtain pitching via trades than in free agency. “There are times when you’re going to have to dive into that [free agent] pool and just take a risk. But it’s not my favorite place to be,” the president said. “We get inundated with stories across the game about how everybody is looking for starting pitching. ’Just get two quality starters, and we’ll be all set.’ Well, you might as well look for a unicorn at the same time. It’s tough. You don’t want to be paying for past performance.” MacPhail also noted that the possibility exists that the Phils could deal from their farm system to add help for the big league roster.
- The club hopes to have a new manager hired before the GM Meetings in early November.
- The Phillies will continue to build and spend money on their analytics staff, which MacPhail mentioned has grown from a one-person department to a 14-person team. Pitch-framing is one specific area that MacPhail said the Phillies are looking to improve on an organization-wide basis in 2018. Baseball Prospectus was very unimpressed by the framing abilities of Cameron Rupp and Andrew Knapp, respectively ranking the two Philadelphia catchers 110th and 115th out of 116 MLB catchers.
I’d pursue Chris Tillman and Tyler Chatwood on the free agent market.
I wouldn’t want to fill the rotation up with long term assets considering Eschelman in AAA and guys like Irvin and Kilome in AA.
The trade market isn’t immediately clear to me. Maybe the Dodgers & Phillies can work something out given the Dodger’s pitching surplus. I think Hernandez would be a great fit for them.
I just don’t see which teams are going to move pitching this year that aren’t guys like they’ve acquired. I think everyone’s going to look at the Twins and think they can take a shot at the wild card.
Of those Kilome is the only very good prospect and he has question marks. You need 5 starters plus a bunch in reserve. No team ever went wrong bringing in good pitching and because you need so many good pitchers always get a shot.
Chris Tillman is the sort of player who gets a one year and maybe he bounces back and gets a long term deal next year. He’d be good for a team that knows they’ll contend.
Good pitching is good pitching but I don’t want a 35 year old Jake Arrieta taking starts/innings away from Sixto Sanchez in a few years or clogging up a rotation spot.
There’s free agents id pursue but I wouldn’t go beyond 3 years for anyone.
Arrieta won’t turn 35 until 2021, the 4th year of any deal. That’s an age where some players drop off but some are very effective. Sanchez is the Phillies’ best prospect. If he makes it to the big leagues as good as he’s been, no one is taking away his starts. A 35 year old Jake Arrieta might be taking away starts from a Zach Eflin type.
If Arrieta stinks then you don’t pitch him. Every World Champ has dead money on their roster, even those with lower budgets like the Royals. Teams can’t shy away from signing players because they’re afraid at some point during the deal the player might not be good. Teams that are afraid of dead money don’t acquire talent and don’t win. The Phillies have no future commitments and enormous financial flexibility. That’s an advantage they need to use.
That said, it’s one thing to think that the last year, or maybe two, could be bad. It was stupid to sign a 32 year old Albert Pujols to a 10 year deal.
If there were two pitchers I WOULDN’T want it’d be Tillman and Chatwood. Neither is better than the young guys we already have, some of whom would be denied the opportunity to develop by putting bums like these in the rotation. The only guys I’d consider trading for are Chris Archer and/or Garrett Richards. These are pitchers who could be here for 3-5 years (or more) and when on their game are well above average major league starting pitchers.
I’d think both of the players I mention could be had, too. Archer’s had two losing years in a row, but has continued to surpass 200 innings in each with under a hit/inning in both and 233 and 249 Ks to 67 and 60 walks., Richards’ only issue has been health but he made 5 starts in September. There are reasons that both Tampa Bay and the Angels might be willing to move them, but if they won’t okay but they’re worth pursuing, while below average guys like the two you mention aren’t.. I’d only want to trade for pitchers of that caliber, plus Richards is 29 and Archer turned 30 last week.
Chatwood was definitely not a “bum” this past year. I think he’d be a good sign for The Phillies because he wouldn’t cost too much in years or aav, and could reliably eat up innings.
Archer would cost a trove of prospects, despite his “losing season.” You wouldn’t be happy with that trade if it happened.
Just to add to my comment: I was really encouraged by this press conference though. I think the organization is in great hands. They’ve really taken a step in the right direction since Montgomery stepped down.
Sign a bunch of power hitters. You won’t win, but you shall be entertaining! I’m talking Joey Bats, Matt Holliday, JJ Hardy, Granderson, one year deals all around.
This just gave me nightmares to when he was running the Cubs. Runs big market franchises like they’re playing in Butte, Montana.
Most of the team isn’t even arbitration eligible yet, they don’t have a ton of needs outside of pitching and a bench bat or two. They could go internal if they need to for those too (i.e. Valentin, Joseph, Knapp, Quinn, Tocci/Pullin) could conceivably fill roles off the bench.
Not insinuating they’re a great team but they have a bunch of young guys that need to play everyday. No sense in blocking them with a past their prime bat like Cargo or Jay Bruce.
None of what MacPhail said was very surprising considering the this year’s FA Class is pretty good but it seems to be filled with great complementary pieces rather than possibly franchise-changing guys what will become available next winter.
Regarding pitching, I’m just hesitant to give 4-5 years with $15+M AAV to guys like Cobb, Lynn, etc., Chatwood’s peripherals are favorable and while I could see him get a 5 year deal, he’s only gonna be 28 next year so maybe he’d be open to a deal with an opt-out after 2 years (if he’s confident enough to go after another contract at 30)? MacPhail has a history with Chris Tillman but Tillman is going to most likely look for a contract to re-establish value and to sign on with an inconsistent offensive team that’s still rebuilding pitching in a hitter friendly park may not appeal to him? Me personally, I’ve been a fan of Jaime Garcia, maybe a 2 year deal with a vesting option for a third year based on GS may work (Phils had 0 GS by LH’s in 2017).
Eshelman doesn’t have to be placed on the 40 man until 2019, keeping him down in AAA is the best bet as he’s a command pitcher and moving him up right now might not work because I think the bigger question is which of these current guys (Eickhoff, VV, Lively, Eflin, Thompson) are long term contributors (especially with the first two coming up on possible higher Arb figures soon). I think the Phils need to answer that before finding out what Eshelman is gonna be.
The Phils also have Herrera and Hernandez to get value from by either including them in deals of using prospects in exchange for them in deals. Affordable ToR Starters are who they should be targeting, someone like Chris Archer; starting a package with a Hernandez/Herrera (or prospects acquired in exchange for them) and maybe Moniak can headline plus 1-2 more prospects could get the Rays interested.
R Nola
R Archer (Trade Acquisition)
L J. Garcia (2 yr/$20M, vesting option for ’20)
R Eickhoff
R Velasquez
Of course the Phillies wouldn’t be the only ones interested in Archer but that’s a way I feel they could add Archer. The Phils could also maybe kick the tires of someone like Stroman; the Phillies could afford to take a contract like Tulo off Toronto’s books in exchange for not including top prospects.
It’s understood the Phillies will make a run at Machado and Harper next winter with the hope of landing one but it’s no guarantee they’ll sign. Similar to the Tulo idea, while it’s more of a video game trade idea, with the Phils FO falling in love with their advanced analytics, I’ve wondered about them trying to acquire Joey Votto.
Votto is the golden son of advanced sabers for the most part and while he’s on the other side of 30, he’d imo provide a great influence to the Phils next wave of hitters. A gold glove 1B that played all 162 this past year, that bats left and nearly walks twice the amount of strikeouts would fit the Phillies perfectly. Hoskins’ recent struggles after that hot start showed he’s still got room to grow and I think he needs protection in the lineup, while Hoskins is a 1B, he showed he’s capable of playing LF and he’ll give the team league average defense with the hopes of above average offense. With Altherr, you can use him as a fourth outfielder instead of someone like Nava or he can play CF with Odubel used to facilite another trade (possibly a controllable SP). If you keep Hernandez and move on from Galvis, put Crawford at SS, and give Franco one last shot at 3B you could have a lineup like:
2B Hernandez 2B Hernandez
CF Herrera 1B Votto
1B Votto LF Hoskins
LF Hoskins OR RF Williams
RF Williams CF Altherr
3B Franco 3B Franco
SS Crawford SS Crawford
C Alfaro C Alfaro
But I understand this is more fantasy than reality.
I get what you’re saying here, however I just don’t see Votto waiving his no-trade protection in any circumstance, however I love the idea of shooting for Stroman. We have plenty of prospects in the pipeline like Cozens who are just blocked at this point and are expendable.
No I understand as well. The Phillies could try to sweeten a deal maybe by restructuring the back end of Votto’s deal and paying more up front and front loading the remainder of his deal. However like you said Votto seems happy in Cincy and wants to be a Red for life, good for him if that’s what he wants but if he ever does change his mind, I’d love to see him in red pinstripes.
Not even sure the Reds would consider trading Votto, but why would this make sense for the Phillies? Regardless of how good Votto was this season, arguably his best, he’s still 34 years old with 6 years left on his contract. Barring a miracle he’s played the best baseball he’ll ever play, and the Phillies will be left holding the bag when his play declines, which it will long before his contract is over.
The Rays aren’t trading the Phillies Archer unless the package STARTS with Hoskins and Kingery, plus some. He’s a terrific young pitcher with an even better contract. It’s a pipe dream, and acquiring him would set the rebuild back another few years.
I think they’ll be in on Cobb definitely, and might end up with him if they overpay. I think they’re pretty set position player wise for 2018, and like you I really believe they’ll make a strong pitch for Harper and/or Machado next year, and honestly I’d be very surprised if they don’t end up with one of them.
If they can get a young TOR starter the Phillies should consider trading Kingery. Hernandez has proven to be pretty good. Kingery has a higher ceiling but is unknown. You have to trade players who other teams want, not those you don’t want.
I agree, but the problem is Kingery alone is not going to get them Archer. It’s going to take Kingery, Hoskins, and then some to pry Archer away from Tampa (other teams will pay significantly to acquire him). I just don’t see the value in gutting the system for Archer. I’m not saying…Oh, give them this crappy package instead…I’m saying the cost is too much for the Phillies to do it.
Chris Archer has totaled 3.0 bWAR the last two years. Jerad Eickhoff has 4.2. There’s no way Archer should cost that much. He’d likely cost Kingery plus but that plus isn’t going to be too significant.
I think Hoskins is unlikely to be dealt, but if the Phillies did deal Hoskins and Kingery for say Marcus Stroman they’re only two players. It’d hardly be gutting the system. That’d take dealing the top 5 prospects or something like that.
The Phillies have Hernandez. He’s really good. I don’t think they should trade Hoskins but if they did they could just throw oodles of money at Eric Hosmer. MacPhail likes spending money on hitters and ownership would like payroll to be at least $120 million so fans don’t think they’re cheap. They’re not going to get close to $120 million, so they can pay any price a free agent would want.
Agreed, while I’ve seen Kingery before and I like his tools and root for him because he is the kind of player I was growing up, prospects don’t have a high success rate. While SK can be special, he could also just be a Jason Donald, Adrian Cardenas, Mike Costanzo type as well.
John Town of That Balls Outta Here wrote about Cesar and the possible matchup for a starter (specifically he named JA Happ and Marcus Stroman), “Among leadoff hitters with 500 or more plate appearances the last two seasons, Hernandez has the third-best on-base percentage (.378) and sixth-highest walk rate and batting average (11 percent and .292).
Compared to other second basemen the last two years, Hernandez ranks eighth in fWAR (6.9), fifth in OBP (.366), and second in walk rate (9.9 percent). His ultimate zone rating (UZR) and Fangraphs defensive value are both second-highest.
As a whole the last two years, Hernandez has a .292/.366/.404 line.
He has collected 14 home runs, 69 extra-base hits, 142 runs scored, 70 runs batted in, and 31 stolen bases. Prior to 2016, Hernandez was a below-replacement player in his career. The last two years he has combined for 5.6 wins above replacement according to Baseball Reference.”
The point is, while Cesar has the occasional brain cramp, his overall contribution to the Phillies is undervalued (although I feel part of it has to do with being the guy to replace Chase Utley). They narrowly avoided arbitration last year, it would behoove the Phillies to lock Cesar up long-term similar to the deals both Herrera and Ender Inciarte signed last winter with the hopes to boost his future value. As while I’d like Kingery to succeed it’d be rather difficult to reproduce Cesar’s contributions so maybe their best bet is to sell high on Kingery.
However, the only thing that gives me pause is dealing position players for pitchers as injuries continue to pile up on mounds across the country, do you feel comfortable dealing guys you can get 162 games out of, for guys that will only play in 30-33? Sometimes it’s a no-brainer (i.e. Lee in ’09, Halladay in ’09-’10) but those guys are the exceptions not the rule.
Freddy Galvis led the team with 663 plate appearances. Aaron Nola led the team with 693 batters faced.
A team needs starting pitchers. I looked at recent starting pitchers and you really don’t want to give a guy a 4 or 5 year deal if it goes past age 34. So if you don’t sign free agents you have to trade for players. The Phillies have a glut of position players with big league or near big league experience.
You really want to compare Chris Archer to Eickoff based on one stat most people can quote but can’t define? Archer is a top of the rotation starter, young, with dominant stuff and makeup, and an extremely team-friendly contract. Teams have been calling about Archer for about two years now, only to be rebuffed by the Rays. Anyone calling for Eickoff? Doubtful.
I don’t have a problem trading young players away, but it has to be the right deal. And while trading Kingery and Hoskins wouldn’t exactly be gutting the system, I think it will take more than that to get Archer.
Hernandez is good, but not really good. He’s a decent piece, but nothing overly special. He’s not a guy you build a lineup around. That’s the problem I have with considering trading Hoskins and/or Kingery. Those two might be the players you build the lineup around for years to come, and I don’t see anyone else on the team or in the minors that is showing that capabilities. The Phillies have a lot of prospects, but most of them project as 2 hitters or 6 hitters, not 3-4-5.
Your idea of possibly trading Hoskins—which again I have no issue with depending on the return—and signing Hosmer makes sense. But it cannot stop there. If the Phillies trade Hoskins (and some) for a controllable starting pitcher—I’d check in with Seattle about putting together a deal for James Paxton—they’d have to open their wallets a bit more. Perhaps make a move for Arrietta (who is likely to only get 5 years, and with their current balance sheet the Phillies could entice him by front-loading the deal) as well. This would add two quality starting pitchers, an above-average (but not quite elite) first baseman, and would leave more than enough payroll room to make a run at Harper/Machado and company next winter.
WAR has a very simple definition. It’s one number that sums up all of a player’s performance telling you how far above a replacement player someone is. Archer’s performance the last two years isn’t that good based on a number of stats.
Clearly, I don’t judge the value of players based on your belief of who might or might not be calling about them nor do I judge a player on your belief of whether he’s “a guy you build a lineup around.” The point of a state like WAR is that it takes all subjectivity out of evaluating a player. It’s a way of measuring all players in a defined comparable way. We remove undefinable criteria you or I might put into an evaluation. It has flaws but those flaws are applied equally and dispassionately to all players.
WAR has a “simple” definition, yet very few can explain how it’s calculated, what holds more weight, and what exactly “replacement level” is. And when you have credible websites that calculate it differently, it kind of negatively impacts the statistic.
“The point of a state like WAR is that it takes all subjectivity out of evaluating a player.”
And that in itself can be a problem sometimes. Evaluating a player based solely on statistics is good up to a point. Blanket statistics do not tell everything. For example, pretend you play a 4 game series, and get swept, losing by scores of 1-0, 1-0, 15-4, 15-4. You have a player who in the first two games strikes out with the bases loaded in every one of his at-bats (4). In the last two games (games in which the opposing team scores all 15 runs in the first inning) he goes 4-4 with 4 home runs. At the end of the series his slash line is: .500/.500/2.000/2.500(OPS). Statistically he had a great series, but did nothing to help his team win.
Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, and on his way to being one of the greatest of all-time, and has a significantly higher WAR than Madison Bumgarner. If you have the option of either starting for your team in game 7 of the World Series, who are you taking? The guy with the higher WAR or the guy with the “other accolades”?
I’m not saying that WAR or any statistic should not be used and evaluated, I’m just saying that you cannot be all encompassing simply because one statistic tells you to. Jerad Eickoff is nowhere near the pitcher Chris Archer is, regardless of their respective WAR’s. And some things have to be looked at subjectively, because we do not exist in a vacuum. What happens around us—and on a baseball team—impacts us and others. Jerad Eickoff front-lining a rotation does nothing for a team, but Chris Archer does.
My comment that teams were calling for Archer and not Eickoff was not…”Oh, that means he must be better”. What it means is that teams recognize the talent levels of the two, and that Archer is a special talent where Eickoff is a middle of the road, dime-a-dozen league average starter. If the people who actually run baseball teams recognize this. one little confusing stat (if you understand WAR please explain HOW it is calculated, and then why it’s calculated differently for the same player/production by different people) doesn’t override that. I mean hey, Ben Zobrist is/was good, but he was never a top-5 player in baseball, which WAR will tell you he was for several years.
Archer was a special talent two years ago. What his WAR shows is that he hasn’t been one in 2016 and 2017. Chris Tillman was a special talent in 2016 and now he isn’t. If the Rays are asking special talent prices they really aren’t interested in dealing him.
Chris Tillman was never a ‘special talent’, and who knows what the Rays would want for Archer? The are very few special talent starting pitchers in baseball these days….certainly less than ten. In 2016, Archer threw 201.1 innings, 183 hits allowed, 233 Ks, 67 BBs, .238 BAA, 4.02 ERA.
This past year: 201.0 innings, 193 hits, 249 Ks, 60 BBs, .246 BAA, 4.07 ERA.
Age-wise he should be just entering his most productive seasons and he’s signed for 2 more years with 2 more options years that would cost the team $6,250,000 in 2018, $7,500,000 in 2019, and $8,250,000 for each option season after that. That’s a perfect situation for the Phillies, and TB may not even be willing to deal him. If they are, however, he’s the guy I’d go hard after.
Maybe if we’re talking about Chris Archer from his 2015 All-Star season I could definitely see that. However, each of the past two seasons Archer’s ERA, ERA+, WHIP, H/9, HR/9 have gone up; his IP have declined as well (he’s still tossing 200 innings though), even his RA per 9 has gone up almost a full run since 2015. His strikeouts are stable (he’s K/9 has increased but he’s keeping the same K numbers but he’s pitching fewer innings) which means he’s still getting swings and misses but he’s giving up more hard contact. Also Archer has dropped from a 4+ WAR in 2015 to 1.2 this season, which shows he’s a strikeout pitcher but he’s just league average when he’s not striking guys out. His contract is the true value but only if he’s putting up significant WAR (in the 3.5 and up range).
However, everything I’ve said seems to say that the Rays would be selling low on Archer if they traded him now. However the Rays have sold low on starters before but that doesn’t mean they would like to. Of course whether your a Rays or Phillies fan you want to get the most back while giving fewer in return but most fair trades leave teams a little hurt but optimistic about their futures (whether short or long term). I just think 2017 Chris Archer isn’t fetching you a young potential cornerstone position player and a club’s top position player prospect from any team at least how he finished 2017, but what do I know? I’m just some random guy on the internet who likes baseball, if a deal gets done regardless of who it is for I think both teams will get what they want at a fair price (in their eyes).
Are you kidding? Archer’s had two losing seasons in a row plus Blake Snell took a big step forward this year and their top prospect, Brent Honeywell, is ready to join the big league rotation, as is Jose Deleon (who they received from the Dodgers for Logan Forsythe). Archer probably has more value to them by what he can bring in trade and I think we can offer a good package that can fill their needs now and in the future. Maybe something like Cesar, Joseph (both Logan Morrison and Duda are LH), and Moniak or one of our pitching prospects like Velasquez or Eshelman.
Doubtful that package could get Archer because there is no impact player.
Cesar is okay, not a headliner of any package, Joseph’s value is 0, Moniak struggled mightily in his first full season, and both Velasquez (control/durability) and Eshelman (stuff) have major question marks. Many teams can and would beat that offer.
Take Velazquez out and put lively in that 5 spot, and they will most likely sign Cobb and Trade for someone like Skaggs mostly for the Angels need of a 2B in Cesar Hernandez and I could see them make a big push for Stanton, he would make CBP look like a little league park.
I like Lively a lot but I see him being the #6, the first one called up at any sign of trouble (barring injury). Whether it’s right or not, Velasquez was the key piece of the Giles trade (I know that was Amaro not Klentak), but Velasquez’s stuff is going to get the benefit of the doubt from the Phillies, guys with his arm will get as many cracks as possible. I wonder if the Phils may run at someone like AJ Ellis or look to reunite with Chooch in the offseason, the Phils loved Ellis’s handling of the pitching staff and neither Rupp nor Knapp are known as great or even average defensive catchers, pitch framing, or game calling. VV gets in trouble because he likes to nibble which is why he routinely throws 20-25 pitches every inning even if he faces 3-4 batters. Before giving up on him I think Klentak needs a veteran backstop to serve as Alfaro’s backup who can pitchframe and call a game; Ellis or Chooch could be those guys who guide these younger pitchers especially VV through their starts on Alfaro’s off days.
Regarding Skaggs, he may be 25 and a lefty, but he’s also had Tommy John Surgery and has bounced back with meager results. In 5 seasons, Skaggs has pitched more than 85 innings in 1 of those 5 seasons and has a career WAR of 0.8 (Ben Lively doubled Skaggs’ career WAR [1.6] in just 15 starts this season). Hernandez is a near 4.0 WAR 4 tool second baseman in arbitration in his prime, if anyone is expecting Skaggs to be involved in a trade, he wouldn’t be a throw-in but wouldn’t be far off. An oft-injured pitcher who can’t toss 100 innings consistently with only 3 years of control left can’t be considered any return for an everyday field player who posts near all-star level WAR and UZR numbers, Skaggs may not be like Brett Oberholtzer was when the Astros sent him to Philly in the Velasquez package but he’s not far off from that. While the Angels need a second baseman, I can’t see the Phillies not making a move unless Jo Addell could be discussed and LAA already have milked their system dry. I don’t think they could afford to move Addell even to address their 2B need.
Tyler Skaggs wouldn’t make the Phillies’ rotation and the Phillies rotation is pretty bad. If Klentak trades Cesar Hernandez for him he’s a really bad GM.
The Phillies don’t have to spend too much this offseason. Their second half performance was exceptionally encouraging.
If I’m McPhail, I’m going to Cleveland and offering Galvis for one of their hundreds and hundreds of pitchers, seeing as how Galvis offers insane versatility as a bench player who can play every infield and outfield position rather well, while providing some power off of the bench. I would say, throw in a low-level prospect and shoot for Salazar, if it’s possible. If not, then try for Plutko, who is about as blocked as one could be. I see Cleveland as a fit considering they are projected to lose Santana, Jackson, and Bruce to free agency, and seem likely to move on from Almonte and Urshela this offseason as both are out of options. I simply see Galvis as a rather affordable super utility player who would give them ample flexibility and allow them to let Greg Allen continue to develop in AA.
Then I’m shopping Rupp to get a lottery ticket, using his power as the main marketing tool (.417 SLG and 14 HR’s over 88 games).
Then I shoot for Alex Cobb on a 3-year/$45m deal.
Going into ’18 with a rotation of Nola, Cobb, Eickhoff, Salazar (or Plutko) and one of Thompson/Lively/Eflin etc. would be rather solid. Furthermore it would allow us to move Vinny and Pivetta (who hit 97 on Sunday) to the pen, alongside Neris, Milner, Morgan, Garcia etc. etc. and with the line-up consisting of Odubel, Williams, Hoskins, Altherr, Cesar, Crawford, Alfaro/Knapp and Franco- 2018 could be interesting for Philly. Not saying we’re going to be amazing just yet, but immediate improvement and long-term success seems inevitable at this point. Especially considering we have more potential rotation help in Kilyome, Sixto, Suarez, JoJo, Gowdy and Medina in the pipeline.
Taking all of this into account, Odubel’s under contract for $6m, Cobb for $15m, and arbitration raises for Cesar ($5m), Franco ($1m), Garcia ($1m) and potentially Salazar ($2.5m) would make the guaranteed payroll $30.5m plus $10.925 assuming the 19 pre-arbitration cases average $575,000 (over the league minimum $545,000) making the projected opening day payroll just $41.425m. This gives the Phillies plenty of room to work on long term deals with other potential cornerstone pieces like Nola, Hoskins, Hernandez or any other guys who they would like to acquire some cost certainty with.
Obviously, I’m not the Phillies general manager, and the Galvis/Salazar deal may not be the fit that I see it as, however I believe its at the very least an interesting thought.
Galvis is very similar to Adeiny Hechavarria. Good field weaker hit free agent in a year. He’d fetch the small amount Hechavarria did. You’ll have to give up more for Salazar.
I’d be cool with that. Throw in a mid-level prospect and I’d be down.
No, you’re not going to get Salazar for Galvis and a mid-level prospect. If you want him you’ll have to give up at least one good player.
I agree, Galvis’ value comes from his defense at SS. Shortstop and Catcher are the two positions where teams seem to be most forgiving for offensive shortcoming by providing great defense. The tribe have the left side of their infield set and I believe Salazar has 2 year of control remaining? Galvis has value as trade bait but his value doesn’t meet the Indians needs. I don’t feel they’d trade a young starter with a power arm for one year of a gold glove SS with a below average bat especially when it seems he’d only fill a utility role for them.
Also, just me personally, Salazar’s injury history raises red flags for me so I’d be hesitant giving up value for him which is what you’d need to do to acquire him. If we’re just throwing random names out there, how about Mengden from Oakland? Watched him two hit the Phils and shutout Texas, I’d want them to trade for him just to see what kinda crazy shirts would get sold featuring him and that Rollie Fingers-esque ‘stache of his.
I stopped reading your comment when you said Galvis to the Indians. Why would a team that has one of the game’s great young shortstops, one of its better second basemen, and one its best young third basemen…want Galvis for? If there ANY team in baseball that would absolutely no interest in Freddy it’d be the tribe.
There’s absolutely no reason that Cleveland would have any interest in Galvis. It makes no sense. The have Ramirez, Lindor, and Kipnis. If you were them would you want Galvis for even a bag of balls?
The Road to success:
1) Trade Galvis, Lively and Joseph to the Padres for Brad Hand (Myers back to OF)
2) Trade Hernandez, Rupp, Altherr and Eickhoff to Blue Jays for Marcus Stroman and Devon Travis.
3) Sign Free Agent SP Alex Cobb
4) Sign Free Agent SP Lance Lynn
5) Sign Free Agent RP Addison Reed
6) Sign Free Agent RP A. Swarzak or Joe Smith
7) Sign Free Agent OF J.D. Martinez
8) Sign Free Agent INF E. Nunez as Super Utility.
That’s good enough for at least a WC.
2019 Free Agent – Get Manny Machado and shut down Closer.
There’s no way you get either of those trades. Galvis has low value. He’s an adequate starting SS but he only has one year of team control. Joseph is worthless. Lively’s ceiling is back end of the rotation. A team might want him but not as a primary piece. You have to trade them something they want.
Your second trade is more interesting but is this what the Blue Jays are looking for? Are they so down on Travis that they really want Hernandez? Eickhoff is a bit like Travis in that he had a good 2016 but a down 2017. Rupp figures to back up Russell Martin. That’s a decent offer, but only if that’s what the Jays are looking for. Why do the Phillies need Devon Travis/
I’d be interested in signing Lance Lynn and then possibly trading for either Chris Archer or Garrett Richards, both of who could possibly be obtained. With Lynn and one of those others we’d have a strong rotation for next year and beyond. There’s no reason that it would impede their chances of opening the checkbook to sign another impact player or two after 2018 either.