As the Cardinals made a late push at a postseason spot this year, it seemed the club had finally sorted things out in the ninth inning — and done so for 2018 as well. Trevor Rosenthal, once the team’s lock-down closer, had rediscovered and even improved upon his former form.
The sense of certainty did not lost long. The grim UCL reaper came for the powerful righty in late August, knocking him out for most or all of the 2018 campaign. Whatever hope Rosenthal may have of returning late in the season to come, it likely won’t be sufficient for the team to tender him a contract at the projected rate of $7.9MM.
Seung-hwan Oh had taken over closing duties for Rosenthal when he faltered in 2016, but Oh himself stumbled last year and is in any event now a free agent. Brett Cecil rebounded from an ugly start to his time in St. Louis, especially in the peripherals, but was never really given a look in that role. Tyler Lyons turned in an exciting season but made way for Juan Nicasio, who was acquired despite the fact that he was not eligible for the postseason. And young flamethrower Sandy Alcantara continues to show eye-popping talent, but likely won’t be entrusted with such a key role early in 2018 after exhibiting some walk issues during his first MLB stint last year.
All said, it’s rather clear that the Cardinals will be looking for an outside acquisition to secure late-inning victories. The team’s leadership largely acknowledges as much, as Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. Looking around the rest of baseball, it’s hard to identify any other team with such an evident need in the 9th. Among hopeful contenders, there are a few other clubs with potential openings — the Cubs, Twins, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Angels, especially — though some of those organizations may well look to internal options. Other organizations will consider adding high-leverage relievers, even if they already have ninth-inning options penciled in, so there is other competition. But the need for an established closer is more acute in St. Louis than anywhere else.
As the Cards begin mapping out an offseason strategy, here are some of the names they might be weighing:
Free Agents
Despite expressing a general aversion to “pay[ing] retail for closers,” GM Mike Girsch acknowledges a need to “evaluate the brand-name closers in the market.”
- Wade Davis has emerged as the top target, as he carried a 2.30 ERA through the regular season and has come up big thus far in the postseason. Davis is still pumping mid-nineties heat, even if it isn’t quite at his peak, and set a career high with a 15.4% swinging-strike rate.
- Greg Holland did not quite hold his edge for the entirety of a bounceback season, though surely his extensive absence also played a role. Holland also drew swings and misses on more than 15% of the pitches he threw despite a more significant velocity drop than Davis has experienced to this point. Though he got he job done for most of the year at altitude, Holland did end with a less-than-dominant 3.61 ERA.
- Addison Reed stepped into the closer’s role for the Mets before his mid-season trade to the Red Sox and has plenty of high-leverage experience in his career. He has yet to reach 29 years of age and, unlike the prior two names on this list, brings elite control to the table and also set a personal best with a 13.7% swinging-strike rate. There’s certainly a case to be made that Reed represents a more palatable long-term investment and can be trusted to handle the ninth.
- Juan Nicasio, as noted, ended up taking a surprising route to Cards late in the season. He ended up saving four games in 11 strong innings. Over the course of the year, Nicasio led the National League with 76 appearances and carried a 2.61 ERA with 9.0 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. While the converted starter has relatively minimal experience in the late innings, he might represent a more budget-friendly possibility.
There are other free agents with ample late-inning experience, including Steve Cishek, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Koji Uehara, and Sergio Romo. Those and others could obviously be considered by the Cards, but likely wouldn’t be added with closing duties in mind.
One-Year Rentals
The Cards will surely also look into trade possibilities. With Alcantara and other good arms on the rise, though, perhaps the focus will be on shoring things up for 2018 rather than securing a longer-term piece (at a much higher price, no doubt).
- Kelvin Herrera could represent an interesting target. The Royals dealt Davis away last year for a talented player (Jorge Soler) who had fallen out of favor with his contending team. St. Louis has quite a few intriguing assets (Aledmys Diaz, first and foremost) that could fit a similar description. Herrera is just 27 years old but will be entering his final season of arb control at a projected $8.3MM. He’s also coming off of a tepid 2017 season in which he managed only a 4.25 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 while permitting a sudden jump in home runs (1.37 per nine on a 14.5% HR/FB rate). Herrera is still throwing pure heat but did slip to an 11.5% swinging-strike rate. And some late-season forearm issues are a bit concerning from the perspective of an acquiring organization.
- Zach Britton might also be a one-year bounceback target, though he could be in line for a $12.2MM payday and had some fairly worrying health and performance issues in 2017. Plus, the O’s presently insist they aren’t interested in dealing him. There’s still time for that stance to change, however, and the Cards would be one of many teams that could dream on a revived Britton. Teammate Brad Brach is also a quality late-inning arm and is set to earn just $5.2MM, though as with Britton it remains unclear whether he’ll truly be available at any kind of reasonable price.
Multi-Year Assets
While price tags figure to remain high for sought-after young relievers, there are quite a few interesting names to consider.
- Brad Hand is earning a reasonable $3.8MM in his second-to-last season of arb control. Though the Padres’ 27-year-old only just stepped into the closer’s role in the middle of 2017, that change didn’t seem to bother the breakout reliever, who worked to a 2.16 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over a healthy 79 1/3 frames. Hand can work deep and deliver top-line results, though his status as one of the game’s best southpaws will no doubt also lead to broad interest.
- Raisel Iglesias continues to dominate and is still 27 years old. The Reds hurler will earn $4.5MM this year, as his contract calls for, and will likely opt into arbitration beginning in 2018 — when his salary figures to ramp up quite a bit. Still, with control through 2021, Iglesias has huge value. Plus, he may yet be on the come, as he boosted both his average fastball velo and swinging-strike rate in 2017.
- Alex Colome will take home a projected $5.5MM from the Rays with two more years of control remaining. It’s still not clear what kind of course Tampa Bay will take this winter; though it seems more likely than not that the team will keep trying to contend, it’s still possible that Colome will be shopped around a bit. The 28-year-old failed to sustain his 2016 breakout, though, tallying a 3.24 ERA with a pedestrian 7.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 66 2/3 innings.
- Arodys Vizcaino has had plenty of ups and downs for the Braves, who may prefer simply to hold onto him rather than trying to secure what may not be an exciting return. But Vizcaino did manage a 2.83 ERA last year while closing 14 games, so could hold appeal. He is slated to earn something in the realm of $3.7MM and can also be tendered arbitration for 2019, so there’s also somewhat less contractual upside than with some of the other pitchers discussed here — perhaps lowering the ask on Viz. In his favor? A blistering 98 mph heater and career-best 14.7% swinging-strike rate. Beyond questions about his ability to reliably handle closing duties for a full season, we’ll also need to wait to see what course the Braves take once their current front-office mess is resolved.
- Dellin Betances could be an intriguing buy-low target if the Yankees decide to move on. While he has often been absurdly dominant, Betances showed a concerning loss of the strike zone down the stretch and into the postseason. But his overwhelming stuff and upside are undeniable. With a projected $4.4MM arb salary and another year of control, he’d draw big interest despite the struggles. Of course, there’s also good reason for New York to hold and hope for a rebound, and the risk may be too great for a team like the Cards to trust the ninth to Betances coming out of camp.
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has also reported that the Cards have some interest in right-hander Yoshihisa Hirano — the longtime closer for Japan’s Orix Buffaloes. It seems unlikely that a big league club would sign the free agent and immediately hand him the keys to the ninth inning, though if he impresses early in his MLB tenure he could emerge as a closing option, as Oh did in his 2016 debut campaign.
There are a few other young names that could conceivably enter the mix here — most notably Roberto Osuna of the Blue Jays, Edwin Diaz of the Mariners, and perhaps the Phillies’ Hector Neris. But all indications are that there’s no significant likelihood of these players being moved; Toronto and Seattle insist they will try again to contend, while the Phils probably won’t have much motivation to part with a pre-arb relief talent as their competitive window begins to re-open.
fred-3
Looking at the at bats the Cubs have had against him, the Cardinals should sign Morrow
socalbum
I think Tony Watson should be added to the list of FA closers to be considered — he pitched well for Dodgers in regular season after Honeycutt worked with him.
WalkersDayOff
Watson was really bad as a closer. He is a setup man
socalbum
too soon to write him off after being outstanding — he has pitched well for Dodgers and it will not take a huge contract in money or years to add him.
baileydogg
With both Cecil and Watson being lefties with not overly successful closer history the situation could be a ton of money for the Cards on 2 setup lefties.
BlueSkyLA
I can only hope that Brandon Morrow remains as far off the radar as he is now so the Dodgers can re-sign him.
EndinStealth
And mentioning him helps?
BlueSkyLA
I’m sure these boards are the first go-to for GMs and scouts. I mean, where else would they hear about active players?
davbee
Yes, a player who is dominating in the playoffs is off the radar.
Cam
Oh for sure, if Morrow’s 100mph fastball and lights out performances haven’t garnered enough attention from the league, BlueSkyLA’s comment will definitely be what seals it.
Thanks for ruining the smoke and mirrors, BlueSky.
donnie23
Hahaha BlueSky, you saboteur!
EndinStealth
It was a tongue in cheek comment. Sorry you got bent out of shape over it.
BlueSkyLA
Oh, I get it. You forgot the tongue in cheek emoji.
Phillies2017
I just have a bad feeling they overpay for Holland.
screwball8
Like Cecil?
Cardinals17
Me too, screwball8 !!!!! My same thoughts.
donnie23
Agreed.
LA Sam
Bruce Sutter
brewcat
Either him or Hrabosky.
layventsky
Trevor Hoffman
the earth is flat
Trade for Alex Colome. He has 2 cheap years of control and is a top 3 closer in the MLB (behind Kimbrel and Jansen). A package of Carson Kelly and Delvin Perez should get the deal done.
Phillies2017
I love your username
EndinStealth
The Rays wouldn’t go for that although it may be close. Also the earth is round. lol
Polymath
A circle is both round and flat. The earth is spherical, with distortions.
layventsky
Are you sure it’s not banana-shaped?
lwalsh29
Hahahaha there is no way in hell the Cards move those two players for an average closer. What evidence do you have that makes him a top 3 closer? I can think of 8 guys off the top of my head that are better.
socalbum
and a closer whose home games are in one of the most pitcher friendly MLB ball parks
the earth is flat
What evidence? How about the fact he had the most saves in the MLB. SIX more than the next guy. He also had a solid K/BB..
davidcoonce74
Wait a minute, you’re using a saves total to prove a pitcher’s ability? Seriously? Saves totals don’t indicate literally any ability to pitch; they show usage and that’s it. Remember Rocky Biddle or Shawn Chacon?
the earth is flat
Are you actually telling me right now that outperforming EVERYONE in your position in the ONLY stat that matters for the position says nothing about the pitchers ability? YEAH RIGHT. Nice try.
JFactor
Saves are a stat of opportunity. Not a stat of talent.
davbee
Next you’ll be telling us that Fernando Rodney is a great closer, because…er, saves.
cxcx
Saves in a vacuum don’t say much, sure. But if you compare them to blown saves then sure they say something, as in the ability to not choke.
And if you have a problem with saves then you should attack whoever wrote the article because he seems to be focusing on closers to be this team’s closer when closing (going for and getting saves) means nothing to you.
cxcx
They are both.
Next you will be saying innings are a stat of opportunity because you can’t rack up 200+ innings if your team doesn’t give you an opportunity to. Sure it’s true but it’s still a pointless and dumb comment.
Cam
Fernando Rodney was 4th equal in Saves last year – let that sink in.
JFactor
200 innings is about being healthy and at least league average lol.
Saves are opportunity stats.
Look at peripherals and things like WPA if you want to see the talent of a reliever.
mlb1225
Save’s indicate opportunity and usage, and that’s about it. That’s like saying Fernando Rodney is a really good closer because he has 39 saves, and ignoring his 4.23 ERA.
vtadave
The Earth is round and Alex Colome is in no way a top-three closer.
screwball8
The MLB just announced finalist for relief pitcher of the year. Colome isn’t one of them. Not even considered top three in the AL
aff10
Alex Colome > Aroldis Chapman… sure
jdgoat
Considering contracts, that might actually be true
donnie23
Like it for the Rays, not for the Cardinals.
screwball8
Far fetched but I would like to see wainwright moved to closer like smoltz did.. he’s had such bad luck injury wise and I believe he holds even greater value as mentor for the young guys.. the cardinals need his leadership and also need a starting pitcher that can get them 180 ip
Phillies2017
I could get behind that. Dont hand him the closers job outright, but he could be very good as a reliever.
brodafett
Waino can’t even hit 90 on his fastball. The only thing he needs to do is take a huge pay cut or retire and take a coaching gig to provide his leadership skills. Sorry, love waino but he isn’t even a shell of his former self, and hasn’t been for a couple of years.
Cam
Wainwright averaged 90.5mph last year with his fastball – so yeah, he can hit 90.
His career high average for a season is 92mph, he’s never been a velocity guy. Control is his issue – a career high walk rate last year.
jfive
waino
brodafett
Yes, because he will rack up those 9th inning strikeouts with his 87 mph heater
JFactor
As the guy above pointed out. He averaged over 90 last year with his fastball.
He is just too cutter happy
davep-3
Cards seem like a great match for Hand. They have prospects and a stopgap SS in Diaz that would appeal to Padres.
wkkortas
I don’t know if the Cards should be pouring major dollars into a closer; they should see where they are come deadline next year and see what’s available on the market if they’re in contention.
mlb1225
Maybe slowly introduce him to a late inning role. Wouldn’t be too unfamiliar to him though, because in his rookie year (’06) he was a set-up guy.
donnie23
A closer would likely have had them in first place at the deadline this year as the Cubs under-performed all year until late. So while I agree they shouldn’t pour a large amount into a closer (whether it be dollars or prospects)… I don’t agree with your supporting argument.
j_johnson42
Dennis Ekersley
musicball2000
Upper deck Eck!
greg1
Bring back Moustache Al for sure.
Actually, I like Nicasio for the role. He’s already in house, and his contract should be reasonable both in years and dollars.
rememberthecoop
Cards will probably do what they did last year – steal from the Cubs. They signed Dex & will sign Wade Davis. Theo won’t give him 3 or 4 years but someone will.
CompanyAssassin
The Cubs signed lackey and heyward the year prior. Its just a fun little merry-go-round.
STLShadows
Just sign Davis or Trade for Hand. Holland, Herrera, Reed, and most of the others are risky. I think they should bring back Nicasio for a 8th inning role and pick up Davis or Hand. I do believe Alcantara will be a dominant pitcher in the second half so add those 2 and you have a contending bullpen. The Cards need to go big or go home.
CompanyAssassin
This post, 100%. Drop the risky options, they haven’t worked out for the Cardinals at all as of late. Hand or Davis, + Nicasio and Alcantara. Then Reyes is probably in the pen half the year.
They need a bat and starter as well. I say spend high this offseason when payroll is low, get what you need to contend for several years.
brodafett
If reyes spends half the year in the pen the cards are in trouble. I get limiting his innings, but surely he can start until august before getting limited. Waino is done, wacha is a big question. The cards have cmart, weaver and reyes next year to go with those two. Perhaps flaherty but he looked overmatched in the mlb and should do a weaver and stay in AAA until next August. Lyons could be an option to do long relief and keep reyes from being over worked. But ultimately reyes needs to start.
CompanyAssassin
Like I said I think they need a starter. I don’t think Wainwright can handle starting anymore and I don’t trust Wacha. I’d be for having Reyes start, but I don’t think they’ll allow it. If Wainwright and Wacha can’t handle it, and we lose Lynn, thats 3 potential spots with only Weaver and Carlos sure spots. If Reyes starts that’s 2, and I’m sure they’ll start Wacha anyway. Still one starter out, so they need one. Can’t depend on all 3 being feasible.
CB 3
As a Reds fan I’d deal Iglesias for Kelly and Flaherty. Be fair for both sides but not sure Reds wanna give top closer to division rival. I wouldn’t mind at all.
bleacherbum
Then do the same deal for Hand, replace Kelly with Diaz and call it a day. Flaherty would slide into the SD rotation immediately and Diaz becomes their everyday SS. Hand comes to STL with a cheap contract and a couple years left of team control.
You pair one of Nicasio, Reed or Gregerson to a Brad Hand acquisition then the bullpen becomes much better in an instant. Not to mention the idea of Waino in relief again should also help immediately.
CompanyAssassin
This will be very unpopular opinion but I’d actually like to see Dejong + very low farmhand for Hand. I think Diaz/Gyorko could handle SS well enough, at least when you have Hand in the pen.
brodafett
Heck no. My fellow card fans are fikle and for some unknown reason are trying to chase kelly out of town with a pitchfork. However, I would like to remind them that the almighty yadi could barely crack the .200 mark at the beginning of his career. Kelly has already proven he can hit at every level in the minors. He just needs time, and consistent playing time to get his teeth cut at the mlb level. Seriously, some card fans need to pull their heads out of their ARSES and stop expecting every hitter to be Pujols when they make the majors. Kelly had what less than ten at bats in almost the entire lonth of August and they expect his timing to not be rusty? We as a fan base were panicking because we had no successor for yadi for years. This is when yadi was about 30 that people started freaking out. Now he is in his mid 30s and we have his heir and people act like yadi is a 24 year old and we have all the time in the world to find a replacement so lets chase off kelly for every trade rumor out there. The cards will F themselves if they trade kelly. The fans who wanted to run kelly out of town will crucify management if yadi goes down, or declines fast and we are stuck with some bum thats half broken down trying to fill his cleats.
CompanyAssassin
I agree with the part about giving him enough time to show his ability. He’s a good player. It’ll work out. We can’t bank on Knizner being as good just yet. I’d be VERY reluctant to have another backup, remember Bryan Pena?
Cardinals17
Actually you’re right about one thing, not the Cardinals, but Mozeliak will do exactly the same as last year …….. Nothing Beneficial!!! Same as he has done since Beltran/Bergman left. They’re 9 former Cardinals players playing well in the playoffs these last 2 weeks. Plus, the article says he might consider Neshak and Ciseck in as closer or bullpen possibilities. Lord, they’re former Cardinals!! Why didn’t we keep them?? Jon Jay was a core contributor to championship runs for the Cardinals. Now the Cardinals need a leadoff hitter that can hit .300. Jay can play all outfield positions! He could steal bases. He had a much higher fielding percentage that Fowler. Why didn’t the Cardinals keep Jon Jay?? Would David Freese past 2 seasons fit well in the Cardinal line up?? Why didn’t the Cards keep him?? I could go on and on and you can too. Start thinking of who has left, been dealt, or retired without Mozeliak properly filling in the big gap they left since 2012. You’ll find a great starting line up of former Cardinal players still playing, who are more adequate than most of the players on the current rooster. Let Girsch take the wheel and the microphone. I might just believe him and consider him an honest person. Mozeliak has no clue but Sybermetrics. Does Sybermetrics determine Heart, Guts, Mental frame of mind, Team First traits??? Nope!!! Let Girsch take the wheel.
STLShadows
I agree with you (mainly because I’ve missed Jay so much) I would love to see Jon Jay back in a Cards uniform for one as a utility outfielder like he is with Chicago. And he has a high OBP and can definitely lead off. If they can make room for him I would 100% want him back. As for the others Beltran has declined, Freese has been ok but not as good as Gyorko, and the bullpen arms like Cishek, and Neshek would also have been useful and they should have kept them.
Cardinals17
Mozeliak wil do exactly as he did last season…….Nothing Beneficial. Just as he has done since 2012.
Cardinals17
So sorry about the double posts!
Dang Phone!!!
bleacherbum
I hear your frustration but a lot of teams can play the what if game. I’m a Padre fan and could make a full starting squad of the former players that contributed in the playoffs this year but is it really worth it?
Unless you want a good laugh, so you can see how it could be a lot worse to be a fan of another team. The cardinals are a solid organization dude, embrace it. Check this out before the next time you throw shade at your organization. Here is a full lineup, pitching rotation and bullpen of ex-Padres who played in this year’s playoffs.
Manager: Dave Roberts or Bud Black
Batting order:
1. SS-Trea Turner
2. 2B-Logan Forsythe
3. 1B- Anthony Rizzo
4. C- Yasmani Grandal
5. CF- Cameron Maybin
6. RF- Jon Jay
7. 3B- Chase Headley
8. LF- Alexi Amarista
9. P- Corey Kluber
Pinch Hitter: Adrian Gonzalez
Backup catcher: Jose Lobaton
Pitchers, Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Fernando Rodney, Brandon Morrow, Oliver Perez, Shawn Kelley.
I’m sure there is a couple I’m missing, that’s just off the top of my head but just wanted to put it into perspective that it could be ALOT WORSE, Cardinal fan.
CompanyAssassin
Ouch. Some big names there. I wouldn’t want a round up of our old players anyway like Jay, Heyward, etc.. Most wouldn’t be beneficial. Cishek would be a good BP arm (rental when we got him), but that’s like it. Most the others are old/getting old or in positions we don’t really need unless its a game changer. RF/1B are the only like obvious needs as far as position players.
To me, the Cards sign Arrieta/Darvish, and JD Martinez/Hosmer (I know that alone is like $55M/yr), trade for Hand with no huge names (Reyes, Kelly), you’ve got a WS team. Good Rotation, got the power, much improved bullpen (provided they keep Nicasio). If they ALSO added Cishek, the bullpen would start looking scary. I think they can do it, and definitely now is the time.
LADreamin
You want to spend $250M on two guys and give up nothing for a closer that Preller wanted the moon for last trade deadline. I don’t think your plan sounds realistic…
Benklasner
I think that the cards are more likely to use their trade chips in a deal for a bat and/or an ace and then just pay outta pocket for someone to pair with cecil and hopefully a less gassed Waino and maybe a Neshek/Nicasio type.
Benklasner
If they were gonna give up a good haul for a reliever it should be Iglesias.
cxcx
How about Pat Neshek: 1.59 era this year in 62 innings, 1.87 era for the Cards in 2014, saving 6 games for them.
And how about Oh: 2.85 era for them over the past two years with 39 saves and he didn’t even get a blurb when you went player by player, just one sentence in the initial part of the article.
Joakim Soria bounced back a bit this year, resurgent strike out rate, ton of closing experience, could be had pretty easily as he has a fairly large salary for a rebuilding team.
Mike Minor had a 2.55 era in 77 innings this year with 6 saves, absurd against lefties but still great against righties, he will be one of the highest paid fa relievers, deserves mentioning I think.
CompanyAssassin
I think Oh could very well bounce back but everyone dismissed him. Not sure why. With his track record of success (career), he was probably bound to have a subpar season anyway. I’m against Neshek due to age but I’m a fan of a reunion with Steve Cishek (ha similar names too). He wasn’t quite as good but he’d certainly compliment the pen. I think they’d need more than Cishek and Nicasio, but it could suffice. I’d suggest a trade for Hand in addition to Nicasio and Cishek.
JFactor
My vote is Nicasio. If he can be bad for 3/36 or less, then grab him.
Though, I think we still need another righty on top of that to help as well.
Kane U.
Glen Perkins?