Click here to read previous entries in MLBTR’s Three Needs series.
Despite another losing season, the rebuilding Padres have been better than most would’ve expected in 2017. At worst, they’ll lose 92 games — they sit at 70-89 heading into a weekend series against the last-place Giants — and they’re only four games under .500 since May 20th. The tone was set last offseason when the team signed four veteran pitchers — Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard and Craig Stammen — who went on to produce well beyond the $6.15MM it cost the team to sign each to a one-year contract.
Chacin and Richard have been positive clubhouse influences on a young team and combined for 63 starts. (Chacin is scheduled to make his 32nd start of the season on Saturday and will likely push the duo over 375 innings on the season) Cahill was on the disabled list twice, but he was very effective in his 11 starts as a Padre and ended up being part of a six-player pre-deadline trade with the Royals that netted San Diego a high-upside pitching prospect and one of the best hitters in the Arizona Rookie League. Stammen, who missed most of 2015 and all of 2016 due to injuries, came back strong with a 3.06 ERA in 59 appearances.
This offseason, expect the Padres to try this same strategy of adding inexpensive pitchers who can eat innings and possibly be flipped prior to the trade deadline. The club could have some money to spend after clearing most of their payroll during the rebuild and they also have plenty of trade chips, both in the farm system and with an abundance of second/third base and outfield candidates.
[Related: San Diego Padres Depth Chart and Payroll Outlook]
1. Add two starting pitchers—one who can be penciled into the top of the rotation.
Richard has already been re-signed to an extension that runs through the 2019 season. Dinelson Lamet and Luis Perdomo will come to camp with an edge over a long list of rotation candidates that will include Travis Wood, Matt Strahm, and several others who missed the 2017 season due to injury, including Robbie Erlin, Christian Friedrich and Colin Rea. Adding a few veterans to the mix should be a priority, with at least one that can be penciled into the front of the rotation.
Re-signing Chacin (pictured) would make a lot of sense, considering that he has been one of the better pitchers at home in 2017 (9-3, 1.79 ERA, 5.4 H/9). The 29-year-old might have priced himself out of San Diego, however, and could command a deal that is well above what the Padres are willing to offer at this point. Cahill, considering how well he pitched with the Padres when healthy, would presumably welcome a return to his hometown Padres.
While Petco Park is no longer considered an extreme pitcher-friendly ballpark, pitchers who are looking for an opportunity to rebuild their value are still likely to place San Diego high on their list of potential destinations. Several hurlers have “figured things out” under Darren Balsley’s tutelage, which is why he’s been the team’s pitching coach for 15 seasons and counting. Clay Buchholz, Derek Holland, Ubaldo Jimenez and former Padres ace Tyson Ross could all be on the team’s radar as inexpensive bounce-back candidates.
2. Find a stop-gap shortstop who is better than Erick Aybar, Alexei Ramirez and Clint Barmes.
Filling the shortstop void has been a recurring offseason priority for this team since they traded away Khalil Greene following the 2008 season. Everth Cabrera was an NL All-Star in 2013, but he was never able to lock down the job because of inconsistency, injuries and off-the-field troubles. Thus, the team has continued to kick the can down the road in hopes that someone would eventually come along and solidify the position, which simply hasn’t happened. Short-term answers like Aybar, Ramirez and Barmes have not produced, and no prospects have emerged as the clear shortstop of the future…until now, which makes this offseason slightly different.
Whoever is written into the lineup card as the starting shortstop on Opening Day 2018 will be keeping the spot warm for highly-regarded 18-year-old prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., who some evaluators believe could reach the big leagues by 2019. Alcides Escobar, Danny Espinosa and J.J. Hardy, all coming off of bad offensive seasons, will likely be in the mix for one-year deals. The trade market for shortstops doesn’t appear to offer many options, but the Rays’ Adeiny Hechavarria, under contract through 2018, would be a possibility while the Rangers’ Jurickson Profar would fill the team’s need for at least the next two seasons—he does not appear to have accrued enough MLB service time in 2017 to reach four years—while Tatis continues to develop in the upper minors. (Though Profar, himself not far removed from being the game’s top prospect, could be seen as a long-term asset at another position.)
Corrections: Hechavarria is under contract through 2018. The article had initially stated that was under contract through 2019. Profar appears to have fallen short of 4.000 years of MLB service time, which keeps him under club control through 2020 instead of 2019.
3. Acquire a late-inning reliever who can step in as the closer if Brad Hand is traded.
With Stammen headed for free agency and Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter dealt to Kansas City at midseason, the Padres will likely be shopping around for late-inning bullpen help. They also have to plan around a potential trade of Hand, who received a lot of interest at the deadline.
General manager A.J. Preller held on to Hand since, presumably, teams were unwilling to meet his high asking price, and Preller isn’t likely to lower that price this offseason. If anything, Hand’s value increased after he posted a 2.22 ERA with 18 saves, six walks and 38 strikeouts in 28.1 IP after taking over as the closer in late July. With only two years of club control remaining, the 27-year-old lefty has more value with a playoff contender in 2018. In other words, there is still a high probability that Hand is traded this winter and the Padres will have a new closer heading into the season.
Kirby Yates and Phil Maton would be the top internal candidates to close if Hand is dealt. If San Diego was to add a third option with closing experience from the free agent market, Matt Belisle, Tyler Clippard, Bud Norris and Huston Street would fit the bill. Brandon Morrow, who pitched for the Padres in 2015 and 2016, would be an intriguing option to return. An impressive, injury-free season with the Dodgers, however, means that he’ll likely have plenty of interest around the league.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Only 3 things? Lol
And BRING BACK THE BROWN!
What happened May 20th? The opening paragraph states that they have been 4 under since that date, but doesn’t have any explanation of why that date is important. Is that just a random end point?
It’s a follow-up on the previous sentence that states that they have been better than expected. They’re only 4 games under .500 since May 20th, which further proves the point in case “only 92 losses” doesn’t drive the point home.
Maybe they were as high as 15 games under at that point and since that point they played 4 games under .500 the rest of the way.
They were 15-30 on May 20th. Since then they are 55-59 which is quite the improvement.
I believe May 20th was when their win % bottomed out (it was at .333 on that day)
You cannot be serious…It’s really not that hard to understand the point that was being made.
I was excited when I saw 21 comments on this thread to only see half we’re of this rubbish
Padres had a good year for them in 2017 will have a worse year in 2018. they only need about 20 new players .
Padres to lose 100 games in 2018
And why would that happen? They aren’t losing anyone important and Quantrill, Lauer and Lucchesi should all make it to the show sometime in 2018.
No, no, and not very likely.
Per MLBPipeline, Quantrill and Lauer both have 2018 ETA’s. I still don’t see how it’s possible for them to be worse in 2018 than 2017
That would definitely help them in landing another high draft pick.
Your’re right Ryan, they won’t loose 100, they’ll loose between 95-98.
How will they be worse next year than they were this year? Everyone who contributed this year will still be here and three of their best pitching prospects are expected to come up.
Why exactly does the shortstop stopgap need to be “better than Aybar, Ramirez or Barmes?” What do the Padres lose by having a subpar shortstop other than games that they were going to lose anyway?
I guess maybe if they hit on a decent shortstop, they could perhaps use him as potential trade bait later in the season (by himself or in a package with another player). Then they could just replace him with another scrub off waivers or from the high minors. Because we all know it’s just a waiting game until Tatis is finally ready.
I’d like to see them give Jose Rondon a shot. He can’t be much worse than the last 3 guys we’ve tried at SS and he only has 1 option year left after this year so Preller has to fish or cut bait sooner or later.
Yeah I could definitely see them calling Rondon up sometime because that 1 option year is going to force their hand at some point. They might as well see what they’ve got in him. Maybe they sign a guy like Escobar or Espinoza on a cheap deal, and then Rondon joins the team later in the season.
If they only kept Trea Turner…
Too late, good move
How many major league contributors this year are going to be around next year? Chacin? Probably not. Hand? Probably not. Margot, renfroe, and Myers will have to take another step forward if they want to win more games. Are pirela and spangenberg going to give you the same production they did this year? Who knows, I could easily see them being a little worse than this year.
Chacin is replaceable. Margot, Renfroe, Hedges and Myers aren’t going to be any worse than this year and, as I mentioned, some of their best pitching prospects are expected to make it to the show next year.
Myers is not young player why you limp him in is beyond me
hurrr da durrr
*fart noises*
Because he needs to improve. Can players not improve entering their age 27 season? Some call it their “prime” if you’ve ever heard of it.
Their best pitching prospects might make it to the show in the second half. Wouldn’t expect them to be impact players in their first taste of the bigs. It’s highly plausible the team wins less games next year. It really doesn’t have anything to do with how the rebuild is going because wins and losses don’t matter right now. With the pads current roster I don’t think it’d be crazy to see a slight drop in W’s.
They won’t tho. They aren’t losing anyone important and Renfroe, Margot, Hedges and Myers all came nowhere near their ceilings in 2017.
Myers is what he was is, out of position 1B weak defensively, overpaid, strike out machine who can’t hit good pitching if life depended on it
Change your name to jadedAFpadre4life
Fan of Jose Pirela, and Yangervis Solarte, two former Yankees, and what should be the Padres starting 2B and LF in 2018. (Solarte appearances by position: 80 at Second, 26 at Shortstop, and 22 at Third)
I’ll be rooting for both to succeed, especially Jose Pirela who was essentially fighting for a Major league career when the Padres decided to give him a chance, and he rewarded them with a .288/.347/.490 with 10 homers, 40 RBI, and four stolen bases in 83 games, before being shut down for 2017 after a finger injury he suffered Sept 10) (Pirela appearances by position: 5 at First, 7 at Second, 1 at Third, and 71 OF)
I awknowledge both could be traded at any time, especially Solarte’s team-friendly contract: (2018: $4M , 2019: $5.5M club option ($750,000 buyout), 2020: $8M club option ($750,000 buyout)
Trade solarte
Padres have better options for2nd that are younger and faster
Solarte has been good and that contract will really help his trade value. He needs a new agent.
Solarte is good jeez you are out there
Brain dead
I acknowledge*
Solarte won’t be the starting 2b next year. That’s Asuaje’s position to lose. Solarte will probably continue to be the super utility, barring him being traded.
Solarte has a .255 BABIP this year. I would expect him to be a bit better next year. He’s an above average infielder, but he probably doesn’t fit in to SD plans. Asuaje is a utility infielder but he’s young so he’ll get his opportunity. But he isn’t fast, he has no power and strikes out too much for a guy with that profile. He has a good glove but I wouldn’t expect much.
Yea he will be year older and faster and younger lol
They might not have landed the first pick in next year’s draft, but this season did show some of the potential this team could have in the future. Keep the rebuild rolling.
I think they have a shortstop out in the outfield in Córdoba. He could b serviceable and is more athletic and has way more potential to the club if he can play short until Tatis is ready. And there’s no guarantee he can stay at short with his size at 18.
He isn’t good at short
He needs time in the minors
This year’s team has been much more fun to watch than the last couple of years. This team battles and has won some series against the the best teams in baseball. At least I’m not watching the likes of Rosales, Upton, Ramirez, etc that have proven they stink.
Rosales had an .814 OPS for the Padres last year. How does that stink?
He hit .229
Yes, because batting average is CLEARLY the best stat to judge a hitter by. Especially with a three true outcomes hitter.
*eyeroll*
Ya, it pretty much is.
It’s 2017, not 1917
If you want a guy who is a .227 career hitter and doesn’t have a position and is a bad defensive plate on your team than good for you. You’re a lot smarter than I am. Some people will argue just for the sake of arguing.
Idk how his defense graded out but by the eye test he wasn’t embarrassing the Padres on defense like say, Matt Kemp. And like I said before, he had an .814 OPS for the Padres, He is not a good player to use as an example for the argument you are trying to make and the Diamondbacks liked him enough to trade for him so…
They have speed,power and you that we haven’t seen in quite a few years. They are fun to watch, but really need to improve their pitching and defense that is essential to winning championships.
The Padres need PROFAR! He’s still young enough and hit well enough in AAA. Combine that with his anger and motivation at the Texas Rangers for denying him a call-up for questionable reasons, and you have somebody primed to have a huge 2018.
Slight correction, Hechavarria is under contract with the Rays until 2019, not through 2019
Correction added. Thanks.
They need to sign Ginny
1st need) They need a new front office