Click here to read previous entries in MLBTR’s Three Needs series.
Despite another losing season, the rebuilding Padres have been better than most would’ve expected in 2017. At worst, they’ll lose 92 games — they sit at 70-89 heading into a weekend series against the last-place Giants — and they’re only four games under .500 since May 20th. The tone was set last offseason when the team signed four veteran pitchers — Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin, Clayton Richard and Craig Stammen — who went on to produce well beyond the $6.15MM it cost the team to sign each to a one-year contract.
Chacin and Richard have been positive clubhouse influences on a young team and combined for 63 starts. (Chacin is scheduled to make his 32nd start of the season on Saturday and will likely push the duo over 375 innings on the season) Cahill was on the disabled list twice, but he was very effective in his 11 starts as a Padre and ended up being part of a six-player pre-deadline trade with the Royals that netted San Diego a high-upside pitching prospect and one of the best hitters in the Arizona Rookie League. Stammen, who missed most of 2015 and all of 2016 due to injuries, came back strong with a 3.06 ERA in 59 appearances.
This offseason, expect the Padres to try this same strategy of adding inexpensive pitchers who can eat innings and possibly be flipped prior to the trade deadline. The club could have some money to spend after clearing most of their payroll during the rebuild and they also have plenty of trade chips, both in the farm system and with an abundance of second/third base and outfield candidates.
[Related: San Diego Padres Depth Chart and Payroll Outlook]
1. Add two starting pitchers—one who can be penciled into the top of the rotation.
Richard has already been re-signed to an extension that runs through the 2019 season. Dinelson Lamet and Luis Perdomo will come to camp with an edge over a long list of rotation candidates that will include Travis Wood, Matt Strahm, and several others who missed the 2017 season due to injury, including Robbie Erlin, Christian Friedrich and Colin Rea. Adding a few veterans to the mix should be a priority, with at least one that can be penciled into the front of the rotation.
Re-signing Chacin (pictured) would make a lot of sense, considering that he has been one of the better pitchers at home in 2017 (9-3, 1.79 ERA, 5.4 H/9). The 29-year-old might have priced himself out of San Diego, however, and could command a deal that is well above what the Padres are willing to offer at this point. Cahill, considering how well he pitched with the Padres when healthy, would presumably welcome a return to his hometown Padres.
While Petco Park is no longer considered an extreme pitcher-friendly ballpark, pitchers who are looking for an opportunity to rebuild their value are still likely to place San Diego high on their list of potential destinations. Several hurlers have “figured things out” under Darren Balsley’s tutelage, which is why he’s been the team’s pitching coach for 15 seasons and counting. Clay Buchholz, Derek Holland, Ubaldo Jimenez and former Padres ace Tyson Ross could all be on the team’s radar as inexpensive bounce-back candidates.
2. Find a stop-gap shortstop who is better than Erick Aybar, Alexei Ramirez and Clint Barmes.
Filling the shortstop void has been a recurring offseason priority for this team since they traded away Khalil Greene following the 2008 season. Everth Cabrera was an NL All-Star in 2013, but he was never able to lock down the job because of inconsistency, injuries and off-the-field troubles. Thus, the team has continued to kick the can down the road in hopes that someone would eventually come along and solidify the position, which simply hasn’t happened. Short-term answers like Aybar, Ramirez and Barmes have not produced, and no prospects have emerged as the clear shortstop of the future…until now, which makes this offseason slightly different.
Whoever is written into the lineup card as the starting shortstop on Opening Day 2018 will be keeping the spot warm for highly-regarded 18-year-old prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., who some evaluators believe could reach the big leagues by 2019. Alcides Escobar, Danny Espinosa and J.J. Hardy, all coming off of bad offensive seasons, will likely be in the mix for one-year deals. The trade market for shortstops doesn’t appear to offer many options, but the Rays’ Adeiny Hechavarria, under contract through 2018, would be a possibility while the Rangers’ Jurickson Profar would fill the team’s need for at least the next two seasons—he does not appear to have accrued enough MLB service time in 2017 to reach four years—while Tatis continues to develop in the upper minors. (Though Profar, himself not far removed from being the game’s top prospect, could be seen as a long-term asset at another position.)
Corrections: Hechavarria is under contract through 2018. The article had initially stated that was under contract through 2019. Profar appears to have fallen short of 4.000 years of MLB service time, which keeps him under club control through 2020 instead of 2019.
3. Acquire a late-inning reliever who can step in as the closer if Brad Hand is traded.
With Stammen headed for free agency and Brandon Maurer and Ryan Buchter dealt to Kansas City at midseason, the Padres will likely be shopping around for late-inning bullpen help. They also have to plan around a potential trade of Hand, who received a lot of interest at the deadline.
General manager A.J. Preller held on to Hand since, presumably, teams were unwilling to meet his high asking price, and Preller isn’t likely to lower that price this offseason. If anything, Hand’s value increased after he posted a 2.22 ERA with 18 saves, six walks and 38 strikeouts in 28.1 IP after taking over as the closer in late July. With only two years of club control remaining, the 27-year-old lefty has more value with a playoff contender in 2018. In other words, there is still a high probability that Hand is traded this winter and the Padres will have a new closer heading into the season.
Kirby Yates and Phil Maton would be the top internal candidates to close if Hand is dealt. If San Diego was to add a third option with closing experience from the free agent market, Matt Belisle, Tyler Clippard, Bud Norris and Huston Street would fit the bill. Brandon Morrow, who pitched for the Padres in 2015 and 2016, would be an intriguing option to return. An impressive, injury-free season with the Dodgers, however, means that he’ll likely have plenty of interest around the league.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
mannyl101
Only 3 things? Lol
Padres2019ha
And BRING BACK THE BROWN!
chesteraarthur
What happened May 20th? The opening paragraph states that they have been 4 under since that date, but doesn’t have any explanation of why that date is important. Is that just a random end point?
Jason Martinez
It’s a follow-up on the previous sentence that states that they have been better than expected. They’re only 4 games under .500 since May 20th, which further proves the point in case “only 92 losses” doesn’t drive the point home.
kehoet83
Maybe they were as high as 15 games under at that point and since that point they played 4 games under .500 the rest of the way.
kehoet83
They were 15-30 on May 20th. Since then they are 55-59 which is quite the improvement.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
I believe May 20th was when their win % bottomed out (it was at .333 on that day)
jbaker3170
You cannot be serious…It’s really not that hard to understand the point that was being made.
Padres2019ha
I was excited when I saw 21 comments on this thread to only see half we’re of this rubbish
larry48
Padres had a good year for them in 2017 will have a worse year in 2018. they only need about 20 new players .
larry48
Padres to lose 100 games in 2018
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
And why would that happen? They aren’t losing anyone important and Quantrill, Lauer and Lucchesi should all make it to the show sometime in 2018.
disgruntledreader 2
No, no, and not very likely.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Per MLBPipeline, Quantrill and Lauer both have 2018 ETA’s. I still don’t see how it’s possible for them to be worse in 2018 than 2017
SixFlagsMagicPadres
That would definitely help them in landing another high draft pick.
mlb1225
Your’re right Ryan, they won’t loose 100, they’ll loose between 95-98.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
How will they be worse next year than they were this year? Everyone who contributed this year will still be here and three of their best pitching prospects are expected to come up.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Why exactly does the shortstop stopgap need to be “better than Aybar, Ramirez or Barmes?” What do the Padres lose by having a subpar shortstop other than games that they were going to lose anyway?
SixFlagsMagicPadres
I guess maybe if they hit on a decent shortstop, they could perhaps use him as potential trade bait later in the season (by himself or in a package with another player). Then they could just replace him with another scrub off waivers or from the high minors. Because we all know it’s just a waiting game until Tatis is finally ready.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
I’d like to see them give Jose Rondon a shot. He can’t be much worse than the last 3 guys we’ve tried at SS and he only has 1 option year left after this year so Preller has to fish or cut bait sooner or later.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
Yeah I could definitely see them calling Rondon up sometime because that 1 option year is going to force their hand at some point. They might as well see what they’ve got in him. Maybe they sign a guy like Escobar or Espinoza on a cheap deal, and then Rondon joins the team later in the season.
padam
If they only kept Trea Turner…
Gret1wg
Too late, good move
jbigz12
How many major league contributors this year are going to be around next year? Chacin? Probably not. Hand? Probably not. Margot, renfroe, and Myers will have to take another step forward if they want to win more games. Are pirela and spangenberg going to give you the same production they did this year? Who knows, I could easily see them being a little worse than this year.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Chacin is replaceable. Margot, Renfroe, Hedges and Myers aren’t going to be any worse than this year and, as I mentioned, some of their best pitching prospects are expected to make it to the show next year.
padreforlife
Myers is not young player why you limp him in is beyond me
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
hurrr da durrr
*fart noises*
jbigz12
Because he needs to improve. Can players not improve entering their age 27 season? Some call it their “prime” if you’ve ever heard of it.
jbigz12
Their best pitching prospects might make it to the show in the second half. Wouldn’t expect them to be impact players in their first taste of the bigs. It’s highly plausible the team wins less games next year. It really doesn’t have anything to do with how the rebuild is going because wins and losses don’t matter right now. With the pads current roster I don’t think it’d be crazy to see a slight drop in W’s.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
They won’t tho. They aren’t losing anyone important and Renfroe, Margot, Hedges and Myers all came nowhere near their ceilings in 2017.
padreforlife
Myers is what he was is, out of position 1B weak defensively, overpaid, strike out machine who can’t hit good pitching if life depended on it
Ron Burgundy
Change your name to jadedAFpadre4life
xabial
Fan of Jose Pirela, and Yangervis Solarte, two former Yankees, and what should be the Padres starting 2B and LF in 2018. (Solarte appearances by position: 80 at Second, 26 at Shortstop, and 22 at Third)
I’ll be rooting for both to succeed, especially Jose Pirela who was essentially fighting for a Major league career when the Padres decided to give him a chance, and he rewarded them with a .288/.347/.490 with 10 homers, 40 RBI, and four stolen bases in 83 games, before being shut down for 2017 after a finger injury he suffered Sept 10) (Pirela appearances by position: 5 at First, 7 at Second, 1 at Third, and 71 OF)
I awknowledge both could be traded at any time, especially Solarte’s team-friendly contract: (2018: $4M , 2019: $5.5M club option ($750,000 buyout), 2020: $8M club option ($750,000 buyout)
lowtalker1
Trade solarte
Padres have better options for2nd that are younger and faster
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Solarte has been good and that contract will really help his trade value. He needs a new agent.
padreforlife
Solarte is good jeez you are out there
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Brain dead
xabial
I acknowledge*
dvmwitt
Solarte won’t be the starting 2b next year. That’s Asuaje’s position to lose. Solarte will probably continue to be the super utility, barring him being traded.
jbigz12
Solarte has a .255 BABIP this year. I would expect him to be a bit better next year. He’s an above average infielder, but he probably doesn’t fit in to SD plans. Asuaje is a utility infielder but he’s young so he’ll get his opportunity. But he isn’t fast, he has no power and strikes out too much for a guy with that profile. He has a good glove but I wouldn’t expect much.
padreforlife
Yea he will be year older and faster and younger lol
SixFlagsMagicPadres
They might not have landed the first pick in next year’s draft, but this season did show some of the potential this team could have in the future. Keep the rebuild rolling.
dust44
I think they have a shortstop out in the outfield in Córdoba. He could b serviceable and is more athletic and has way more potential to the club if he can play short until Tatis is ready. And there’s no guarantee he can stay at short with his size at 18.
lowtalker1
He isn’t good at short
He needs time in the minors
nutznboltz
This year’s team has been much more fun to watch than the last couple of years. This team battles and has won some series against the the best teams in baseball. At least I’m not watching the likes of Rosales, Upton, Ramirez, etc that have proven they stink.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Rosales had an .814 OPS for the Padres last year. How does that stink?
nutznboltz
He hit .229
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Yes, because batting average is CLEARLY the best stat to judge a hitter by. Especially with a three true outcomes hitter.
*eyeroll*
nutznboltz
Ya, it pretty much is.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
It’s 2017, not 1917
nutznboltz
If you want a guy who is a .227 career hitter and doesn’t have a position and is a bad defensive plate on your team than good for you. You’re a lot smarter than I am. Some people will argue just for the sake of arguing.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Idk how his defense graded out but by the eye test he wasn’t embarrassing the Padres on defense like say, Matt Kemp. And like I said before, he had an .814 OPS for the Padres, He is not a good player to use as an example for the argument you are trying to make and the Diamondbacks liked him enough to trade for him so…
nutznboltz
They have speed,power and you that we haven’t seen in quite a few years. They are fun to watch, but really need to improve their pitching and defense that is essential to winning championships.
SundownDevil
The Padres need PROFAR! He’s still young enough and hit well enough in AAA. Combine that with his anger and motivation at the Texas Rangers for denying him a call-up for questionable reasons, and you have somebody primed to have a huge 2018.
ReverieDays
Questionable reasons? You mean because he sucks?
xabial
“Profar had three years and 124 days of service at the start of this year and has about 40 days of service time this season. If he is not called up, it will leave him with just under four years of service, meaning the Rangers — or another team, if he’s traded — could control him through 2020. If he reached four years of service time this year, he would be a free agent after 2019. The extra year of control might make him more attractive to other clubs”
sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/201…
Jason Martinez
In all likelihood, this would keep him under club control thru 2020. I’ve added the correction. Thanks.
My initial thought that his MiLB stint between 6/16-7/5 did not last 20 days and therefore counts as MLB Service Time. But I believe the “20 days” only applies to whether a MiLB option is used or not and that applies to 20 days over the full season. So probably does not affect MLB service time.
On a related note, Profar and his agent can’t be happy about this. He had good numbers in AAA and was passed over for a Sept. call-up. So if this is the case and his free agency has been pushed back one season, I’m surprised that this isn’t a story unless there was a valid reason for him not being called up.
jbigz12
Theres no room for him in Texas. They’ve probably mishandled him but we’re still talking about a guy who has amounted to nothing in his major league career. He has done nothing. He has good AAA numbers but they aren’t insanely good either, his pedigree makes him intriguing but there’s no way to know if he’ll be a solid major leaguer.
Jason Martinez
It’s rare that a player who is the No. 1 prospect in an organization (not just all of baseball like Profar) is not given a chance to play regularly at their primary position at some point. Injuries have been part of the reason why Profar hasn’t gotten that chance and he’s blocked at SS by Andrus. He might not reach his potential until he’s given an opportunity to be an everyday SS. He’s not getting that chance in Texas, but they know he has the potential to be a very good MLB SS and will not trade him away for cheap. He is out of options in 2018, however, so the Rangers are losing some leverage.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Exactly. And the Padres have no need to trade for an overrated player who is close to free agency. If Preller really wants him, the smart thing to do is wait until he’s a free agent, sign him and give the Rangers (or whoever they trade him to) absolutely nothing.
xabial
Np Jason. In all honesty, I didn’t see that part of the article since you briefly mentioned it, I was answering Sundevil’s statement that the Texas Rangers are denying Profar’s call up for “questionable reasons” I think it’s clear as black and white why they’re denying him the call up, whether or not you’re Kris Bryant or a fallen #1 prospect who has lost much of his luster.
Sadly, unless they change it in the next CBA, (how you even address it?!) this part of baseball will never change. Nothing personal it’s business (especially since we have no future in the playoffs this year and you likely have no future with us)
jbigz12
True. I don’t know what they can expect for him at this point though. A good but not great reliever? I don’t know what the padres could give them to make it happen. 3 years of control on a former top prospect who hasn’t done anything in his big league career is hard to evaluate. Unless the rangers wanted him to push odor next year there’s really no spot there. I imagine it has to be tough putting a value on a guy like that right now.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
The appeal of Jurickson Profar eludes me. He hasn’t done jack in the Majors and only has three more years of control. If I’m Preller and JD comes calling about Profar I say “Nah, I’d rather just wait three years then sign him away from you” and hang up.
xabial
Profar’s hitting .290 with a .384 OBP and .816 OPS in Triple-A. Sounds like a reason to at least be cautiously optimistic about his upside, if a team acquired him, in addition to his youth (23)
Despite pedestrian MLB numbers, not to mention the fact we haven’t seen him in 2017, I think a change of scenery would do this guy wonders, assuming you have the AB’s (and patience) for a UTIL type, former #1 prospect.
I agree with jbigz12, What do they expect for him? We’ll find out in 2018, when, as Jason shrewdly mentioned, his option years run out and Rangers have no place to hide him.
Not counting his $1.55M signing bonus he recieved in 2009, this guy has never made more than $1M in a season’s salary. (Dont see much of a raise in his 2018 Arb salary) I think you could lock him up on the cheap, because he’ll appreciate you taking him out of texas, where it really isn’t working due to unavailability of AB’s, and other factors but then again… Scott Boras is his agent.
jbigz12
3 years is a long time away. Nobody is waiting that long to see profar. By then he’s either too good and expensive or he’s not attractive at all. If the price is reasonable I can see some appeal in a former top prospect who never got a real chance. It just comes at a discounted rate. Pads need a SS and why not take on one with some upside? I have no idea if profar is a major league SS or not, no one does at this point.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Profar is 24 (25 in August) and plenty of players perform well in AAA only to tank in the Majors. It’s called a AAAA player.
People have been pushing Profar to the Padres for way too long. If it was going to happen it would have happened by now. And people have grossly exaggerated ideas of his value. Like, some idiot few months ago tried to tell me we should trade Brad Hand for him. Like, no.
And don’t even try it with “you can lock him up on the cheap.” When you trade for a guy you ALWAYS assume he will leave in free agency as soon as he is eligible and if you aren’t okay with that outcome, don’t make the trade. Padres traded for Justin Upton 3 years ago and said they didn’t see him as a rental despite him only having 1 year left on his contract. We all know how that turned out.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Well the Padres can afford to wait. Nothing good is going to happen in Padreville until at least 2020.
He’ll still be “too good and expensive” even if they do trade for him. And then he will leave and the Padres will be in the exact same position as before minus whoever they traded to get him. Padres need a CONTROLLABLE shortstop. Not one who will be a free agent when they are on the brink of contending. They already have their heir apparent at SS in Fernando Tatis Jr and until he is ready, they are better off rolling with Jose Rondon or re-signing Erick Aybar than giving up controllable talent for Profar.
And what’s all this talk about “upside?” It’s been over 4 years since Profar was a top prospect in baseball. At this point he is what he is.
xabial
Yeah, you’re right about his age. My apologies, he’s 24, not 23. But his birthday’s in February, not August.
Altho it wasn’t meant to be Padre specific, I really think you’re underselling him. Never under-estimate the power of a change of scenery lol.
Brad Hand? Lol. Anything less than Miller, Chapman, and we forget about this guy but (Ken Giles) like return would be a disappointment, but I can’t comment further because Hand has wayyy too much team control. Too many variables in play, and I don’t know long long the Padres plan to keep him, but with the value of relievers at an all-time high these days, and Profar’s value at an all-time low, I think that guy mustve been a Rangers fan, or Profar’s agent [Scott Boras] on MLBTR.
Hand is one of their best, if not best Padres trade asset.
jbigz12
This all depends on what the return is. You’re treating profar like he’s a bag of balls and you’re a little too early on that. Let him get a whole season of ABs before we call him a bag of balls. Hunter renfroe has a whole season under his belt and he looked like a one tool player but I’m not going to give up on him so soon. Idc if it’s the padres or whoever else trades for profar, he needs a chance to play his actual position for an entire season before anyone can fully pass judgment. He’s out of options and only has 3 years of control so he ought to be relatively affordable.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Shoot. How did I type August? I was literally staring right at his Wikipedia page. Score -1 for me!
I think everyone else is overselling him and also grow tired of people incessantly linking him to the Padres. He’s basically the new Pablo Sandoval.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
He’s certainly not worth Brad Hand or Michel Baez (like some people have suggested on this site) and, let’s be honest, the Padres are really in no position to be trading good prospects at this point.
jbigz12
Hand and profar shouldn’t be in the same sentence. You’re not factoring in any upside on profar, if he’s a good major league SS you have an asset you can trade for a potential better prospect. You’re buying in right now at a minimum. He might be worth less than what you trade or he might be worth a lot more. Only time will tell. Pads make a lot of sense but there’s other options out there.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Cuz there’s no upside to factor in. We’ve been hearing about his “upside” for going on 5 years from now. It’s Cameron Maybin all over again.
The only thing I can see Profar being worth in a trade is another busted prospect.
jbigz12
He’s 24. Hunter renfroe is 25. I think there’s still upside left on 24 year old who never got a full season of abs in the majors.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
If he has so much upside why didn’t the Rangers give him a chance?
And as for the Renfroe comparison, Renfroe is controllable for 3 years longer and has option years remaining.
jbigz12
I’m not talking about their contracts I’m talking about age. Saying profar has no upside at a younger age doesn’t really make sense. Andrus and odor played up the middle you know that. That’s exactly why he never got his shot. But it doesn’t matter your mind will never be changed on it. I could sit here and say things all day, but profar still has upside. Much more than any SS on the padres. We’ll see.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
More upside than any SS on the Padres? Not exactly setting your sights high there bucko! And there’s still the issue that, with the amount of control he has left, best case scenario the Padres contend in his last year before free agency.
padreforlife
Padres big players on free agent front lol
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Short bus lol
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
No
Go away
Annoying
greiunfioewfm
Slight correction, Hechavarria is under contract with the Rays until 2019, not through 2019
Jason Martinez
Correction added. Thanks.
Ezra77
They need to sign Ginny
Gret1wg
1st need) They need a new front office