This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Read versions on the Tigers, Reds, Pirates and Giants.
Fresh off back-to-back playoff seasons, the Mets entered 2017 with championship aspirations but have instead endured a Murphy’s Law campaign. Injuries and subpar performances have been the norm this year for the Mets, who have limped to a 63-84 record and have allowed 84 more runs than they’ve scored (783 to 679). With the exception of right-hander Jacob deGrom, all of New York’s stars have missed significant time with injuries. Even the Mets’ brightest spot of 2017, breakout outfielder Michael Conforto, couldn’t get through the year unscathed. Conforto suffered a torn left shoulder capsule in August, though the Mets don’t expect it to negatively affect him next season. As the Mets hope Conforto fully recovers from surgery over the next several months, their general manager (be it Sandy Alderson or someone else) will use the offseason to upgrade their roster in the hopes of returning to contention in 2018. Here’s a look at a few things New York could do during the winter…
1.) Add reliable starting pitching:
Ace Noah Syndergaard hasn’t pitched since suffering a torn lat muscle in his right arm on April 30, thus depriving the Mets of one of the game’s elite starters for nearly the entire season. He and deGrom will front the Mets’ rotation next year, though, giving the team an enviable one-two punch and taking pressure off the remainder of the rotation. New York is in dire need of help behind that duo, however, as counting on any other in-house options entering 2018 would be a substantial risk.
Former ace and 2016 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery recipient Matt Harvey’s career has gone off the rails since last season, meaning the Mets will have to decide whether to bring the 28-year-old back in 2018 for his final arbitration-eligible campaign. Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz each endured rough seasons that ended early on account of injuries, which is all the more trouble considering they came into the year with durability questions. And both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo have taken sizable steps backward since serving as key starters for the Mets in 2016. Rafael Montero, the only other Met to log double-digit starts this season, has been passable (4.83 ERA, 4.09 FIP in 85 2/3 innings), but it’s unclear whether he has done enough to warrant a spot for next year. The soon-to-be 27-year-old won’t have any minor league options remaining when 2018 rolls around.
From 2014-16, the Mets had Bartolo Colon in the fold as someone to provide 30-plus starts of roughly 4.00 ERA ball to complement their top-of-the-rotation arms. They’ve clearly missed that type of starter this season, though the year Colon has had with the Braves and Twins suggests he wouldn’t have been part of the solution anymore for New York. Any of Jhoulys Chacin, Marco Estrada, Doug Fister (whom the Mets courted as a free agent earlier this year) or John Lackey could make sense if the Mets aren’t in big-spending mode on the open market. But if New York is willing to splurge on an expensive starter, Lance Lynn would be a strong fit. Lynn missed 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he has otherwise delivered nothing but quality seasons of 175 or more innings since 2012.
2.) Sort out the infield:
It’s safe to say Amed Rosario, one of the game’s premier prospects, will continue to man shortstop in 2018. Uncertainty abounds everywhere else in the Mets’ infield, including at third base, where injuries have ruined team captain and seven-time All-Star David Wright’s career. Neck, back and shoulder problems have limited the longtime superstar to 75 games since the start of the 2015 season, and he hasn’t played in a major league contest since May 1, 2016. The Mets can’t expect anything out of the 34-year-old going forward, then, especially considering he underwent right rotator cuff surgery earlier this month. Wright is due an astronomical $20MM salary in 2018, but the Mets will save 75 percent of that figure via insurance for as long as he’s on the disabled list.
Wright replacements Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera have been reasonably effective in his stead this year, but it’s no sure thing any will be the answer at third next season. Reyes and Cabrera aren’t even locks to be on the team in 2018, in fact, as the former is a free agent-to-be and the latter has a team option. Barring trades, Flores and Rivera will be back (notably, the latter is recovering from Tommy John surgery), but they’ve never been single-position players. Those two could continue to rotate among third, second and first next year, which, combined with a Cabrera return, would mitigate the need for a major infield acquisition in the offseason. Otherwise, the Mets could conceivably add an established player at any of those spots, depending in part on whether they think rookie first baseman Dominic Smith is already a capable starter. In the aggregate, the 22-year-old hasn’t been all that productive since the Mets promoted him in the first half of August, and he wasn’t a world-class minor league producer. While Smith’s September numbers are gaudy (.300/.375/.620 in 56 plate appearances), an unsustainable batting average on balls in play (.379) and below-average strikeout and walk numbers paint a less rosy picture.
If they’re not content with Smith and/or their other infield options, there should be some reasonably priced potential targets available for the Mets in the offseason. First base types in Yonder Alonso, old friends Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce, and Logan Morrison will be on the market as cheaper alternatives to Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana. Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier lead the way at third behind Mike Moustakas, who may prove to be too expensive for the Mets’ taste. Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could also entice third base-needy teams in free agency, though his lack of durability may scare away a Mets team that has dealt with a deluge of injuries lately. Considering his baserunning prowess, Nunez would be a good fit for New York, which ranks 25th in the majors in FanGraphs’ BsR metric and 29th in steals. Nunez can also play second, where the upcoming free agent class lacks players who are obvious upgrades over what the Mets already have. The same is likely true of the trade market, as the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Dodgers’ Logan Forsythe have underwhelmed this year. The Athletics’ Jed Lowrie has fared well, on the other hand, but injuries have been problematic for him during his career.
3.) Get relief help:
Mets relievers finished 2016 second in the majors in fWAR and sixth in ERA. One year later, they’re 19th and 29th in those categories. There’s currently little in the way of confidence-inspiring in-house options beyond AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Jeurys Familia, the latter of whom has been one of many high-profile Mets to suffer through an unexpectedly terrible season, perhaps leaving room for multiple additions. Indeed, the Mets are zeroing in on the bullpen as an area they’ll need to address in the offseason. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, former Met Addison Reed, Brandon Kintzler, Juan Nicasio, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek could land on the Mets’ radar over the winter. Those are just a handful of many soon-to-be available veteran relievers who would figure to better the team’s late-game situation.
TBell07
I want neshek and moose
mikeyank55
Wilpon won’t pay moose and moose wants to play for a winner
rougned12
Kintzler and nuñez
kingjenrry
This may blow your mind but Moustakas, in his “career year”, has a 112 wRC+ right now, which means he’s 12% better than league average. Asdrubal Cabrera has an identical 112 wRC+. So before we start discussing how great Moose is, let’s keep in mind he’s not hitting any better than Cabrera has over the course of the full season, as streaky as it’s been.
And José Reyes has been hitting .297/.363/.512 with a 131 wRC+ since he changed bats in late June to help with a recurring hand injury. Before getting excited about Moose, keep in mind he’s a better defender than our guys but he’s actually not a better hitter than they are.
national pastime
And of course new ownership wouldn’t hurt. God they are a joke. They run this team like the play in Rhode Island.
willi
The greatest Need of the New York Mets Franchise is not on the Field , But the the Ownership, Until they are relieved of thier ownership and Forced to sell to People who care about the Mets fans and the Direction of the Team , Nothing on the Field matters,
For in another few Years we ( Mets fans ) will have to go though this all again !
mikeyank55
Thanks for your sanity William.
NOTHING is possible with the Wilpon duet owning the Mets.
It’s time for the fans to boycott the team by:
Stop buying tickets AND all MLB licensed merchandise.
Click on other channels and abandon watching SNY.
Take control of your teams destiny. The Mets are the laughing stock of baseball. The daily articles chronicle a soap opera of poor and uninspired play, ineffective management and prima donna players.
majorflaw
Who or what would force the Wilpon group to sell? They are in a much stronger position now than they were five years ago. And the league made its sentiments known when it loaned them ~$50M to make payroll. Fred Wilpon made sure he was in good with Bud Lite and it’s safe to assume he’s gotten close to Manfred as well.
The fact that you (and others, of course) don’t like the way they are running the team isn’t remotely close to the sort of thing which would cause MLB to pressure them to sell. They didn’t force Loria out, why would they do so for Wilpon? That’s just unrealistic.
On another note, and this may be the first time I’ve ever defended a Wilpon but, prior to their Madoff problem the Mets were regularly among the highest payrolls. Once they completely recover it’s reasonable to expect that payroll will resume being competitive.
On the positive side, Jeffy Wilpon will be the only owner who actually played pro ball. Flip side is, might as well get used to him, he’s gonna own the team for the remainder of our days.
kingjenrry
So I just looked up Jeff Wilpon – at what level did he play pro ball? And is it true he doesn’t have a college degree?
Blue387
The Mets need better infield defense and solid, quality depth. The Mets had to call up a lot of guys up from AAA Las Vegas. With the possible retirement of manager Terry Collins and pitching coach Dan Warthen, the Mets should bring in new coaches and a new manager with a new approach. Sandy Alderson is too wedded to the past with neglecting defense in favor of slow power hitters. Finally, a new trainer would be nice to see as Ray Ramirez has been the Mets’ head trainer since November 2004. The Mets need a clear chain of command when it comes to injuries. I would hire a new trainer and create a new position of “chief medical officer” with the power to overrule the front office and ownership in handling injuries. Mets ownership, especially COO Jeff Wilpon, has been negligent on injuries and relations with players and minor league teams, among other groups. This unsuccessful year has been an organizational failure from the top down.
mikeyank55
Hey Blue. You have played a role in this miserable season!
By acting hopeful and being wishful you allow the Wilpon’s to perpetuate their ruse.
Time to boycott them buddy. No tickets or caps. Watch other channels than SNY.
Boognish
Competent ownership that actually have money would be tremendous.
Caseys Partner
1) New Owner
2) New Owner
3) New Owner
bigcubsfan
O.M. Gosh! Lol, like totally did not think about that. GG lmaoa
xabial
I couldn’t agree with you more, Caseys Partner.
It’s nice to know Fred Wilpon uses this site! (From that 1 dislike )
Blue387
As late as 2010, the Mets kept data on index cards according to the Leigh Castergine lawsuit against Jeff Wilpon.
darkstar61
#1 – need starters
#2 – need infielders
#3 – need relievers
And since they traded 2/3rd of their Outfield…
Well, that’s about everything!
Yay Mets; you’re an all around mess
kingjenrry
I guess you don’t follow the Mets?
SimplyAmazin91
I can see Nicasio, McGee, Romo as guys they pick up for the pen. Lackey for SP and Nunez for 3B, may be able to work out a trade for McCutchen, but more likely Lagares/Nimmo and Cabrera option picked up. It’s somewhat decent but may not be enough especially if the SP isn’t healthy. Would love to see JD Martinez in the lineup behind Ces and in front of Conforto (who may not be back for some time)
ReverieDays
Yeah, none of that is happening besides maybe Lackey.
mikeyank55
Hey Simply…I guess you are still taking that cough medicine with codine.
NO quality free agent player is coming to the Mets.
The ownership is cheap. The management is incompetent.
jakec77
1) Need a 1b/corner OF type who can compete with Smith in the spring, and give them OF depth if he’s not the starter. Bruce probably too good for that.
2) Veteran starter, doesn’t have to be great at all. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to hope between the list of candidates they can get two starters.
3) Veteran catcher to compete with/ share job with D’Arnaugh.
4) At least one really good reliever, probably two.
None of this should be prohibitively expense. One silver lining of this years misery is that outside of Degrom there shouldn’t be a lot of big arbitration raises.
mikeyank55
WRONG jakec!
They are all getting raises–especially the pitchers who will be compensated for the Mets management and medical/training staff’s incompetence being the cause of shortened careers.
Imagine a hearing where “TC” testifies, “Sure I told him to keep pitching. His elbow hurt and I yelled loud–Hey man up boy. Just go back out there. Worry about tomorrow down the road–NOT today.”
And the coaches and medical staff admitting that when players complained to them their auto response was to wink 😉
mlb1225
Adam Lind could fill that 1B/corner outfield spot, and possibly platoon with Smith, and another corner outfielder. I think they should look into Carlos Ruiz, or Kurt Suzuki to share time with D’Arnaud. Relief pitching market is going to have a handful of cheap, solid relief pitchers this year.
kingjenrry
Lind’s a lefty; if you’re going to platoon Dom Smith, a lefty, a right-handed 1B/OF type would make more sense. Realistically, I think they’ll probably use Wilmer Flores as Dom’s platoon partner if he struggles against lefties. d’Arnaud is already in the middle of losing his starting job to Plawecki so I doubt they’ll bring in a guy like Ruiz or Suzuki.
ms3b29
I see the Mets biggest need is to upgrade at C. Darnaud has been awful and plawecki is not someone I can count on. I would love to see the Mets sign Lucroy despite the down season.
willi
A rebuilding team , Doesn’t need a declining Catcher to Start a rebuild !
ms3b29
They do not need to rebuild. They are 2 years removed from the World Series, 1 year removed from the playoffs. They need health, a durable starter, much better production from the catching position, and an OF bat if not ok with starting Nimmo/Lagares. Darnaud can’t hit or throw. The infield is already on the team most likely with Rosario and Smith as starters and Cabrera and Flores likely manning other 2 positions. Bring back Reyes and TJ on the mend. The bullpen will get a huge boost when they aren’t pitching in the 4-5th inning every game in addition to the guys that don’t make rotation such as wheeler, Matz, gsellman, and Montero. Degrom, Syndergaard, Lugo, a dependable arm like Estrada, and a huge question mark in Harvey as the 5 starter.
The Mets have a very talented roster, just a very injury prone roster.
hernandezhofer
At this point, what does Lucroy do better than D’Arnaud/Plawecki? TDA has a higher OPS this year. Defense? Lucroy is the WORST framing catcher in all of baseball, while TDA is above average. Lucroy is a little better throwing, but not much.
I’d rather stick with the possible upside of the young guys than sign an over the hill veteran..
The $$$ needs to go to depth – OF, IF, RP and SP. Spending big money on 1-2 guys is not the answer. Adding solid major league guys all over the place is. Guys like Jay or Dyson in the OF, Nunez or Kinsler on the IF.
mlb1225
They should look for a veteran catcher that can platoon with him. Kurt Suzuki is a solid guy who could share time with D’Arnaud. Another possible guy I could see them sign to share some time is Carlos Ruiz.
kingjenrry
Plawecki
Rickeo02
Hitting
Pitching and umm defense
Gwynning's Anal Lover
1. A new strength and conditioning coach
2. Expansion of a team doctor to a team emergency room
3. Revised insurance policy
Say Hey Now Kid
YES! I know why people want a new trainer but the fact is he has been there since long before the injuries. This rash of injuries began when they brought in a strength coach from a college football team with no background in baseball
Realtexan
Sign Derek Holland. He would be a great top of the line 1 or 2 starter for the pitching
terry g
I would guess the chief thing wanted by New York fans will not happen. Wilpon is not going away. Met’s are in a bad spot too many injury risks and recovering players to even think of all that through FA’s is foolish. Getting a true 3rd baseman and pitching depth is a must, I think, Adding a upgraded defense would help, too
padam
With 50-80M potentially available pending options picked up and arbitration, I say Moustakis, Lynn and Reed. Sign Reyes on the cheap if they don’t pick up Cabrera’s option.
Codybellingersgrandma
Maybe trade matt Harvey for Cody bellinger?
Kslaw
Nah that’s not enough. I think Verdugo, seager and maybe even Kershaw too. That’s the starting point for Harvey…..
MB923
Throw in Puig and the Mets say Yes.
tim815
4. Give $100,000 signing bonus to more players in their late 20’s, instead of giving $40,000-$125,000 bonuses to players more committed to improving their game over improving their college football commentary.
daviebatz
Harvey for kinsler. Mets will throw something else in there. Plus last time we gave them a pitcher he turned into a stud (Fulmer). Sign Cain and Nunez
stymeedone
After the Tiger’s article, it is nice to see an actual list of needs, rather than a to do list.
MB923
New training staff and team doctors.
fckphil
get a better strength and conditioning program….rebuild that farm system….they lose way to many games because of injuries….find a catcher that can call better games…get better defensively.
kingjenrry
At the very least, Plaw and Rosario will help on a few of those fronts even before bringing in reinforcements. Plaw is better defensively and at calling games than d’Arnaud, and is probably a better hitter at this point. Rosario’s the polar opposite of Cabrera out there. And if we get Lagares in the outfield at least some of the time, those three players alone will make a big difference on defense.
Say Hey Now Kid
If they want to keep pitching healthy next year add 2 reliable starters and make their main focus defense. Even if they have to sacrifice hitting. Get a true CF, 2B, and 3B instead of asking corner outfielders and backup shortstops to fake it
aff10
The Mets payroll is unlikely to be kicked up too much, so you’re looking at likely cheaper upgrades. I think a trade for Forsythe makes and signing Nicasio to 3/$21M or so makes some sense. I’d let Cabrera and Reyes go, tender Harvey, and hope for better health
reflect
You forgot “new management”. Biggest need of all.
mlb1225
Catcher is something they need to look into. D’Arnaud is sub-par, and need to have someone to at least share time with him. Kurt Suzuki has been ok this year, offensively, and defensively. If they want to spend higher, they could look into Lucroy, who has done good since being traded to The Rockies. They could use an all-around infielder. Maybe they should look into investing into a cheap contract with Jhonny Peralta.
kingjenrry
Look up Kevin Plawecki – he’s a better defender, game caller, and hitter at this point than d’Arnaud, and is quickly playing himself into what may be the starting role.