Next up in our Three Needs series: the Detroit Tigers.
1. Trade Ian Kinsler.
This is about as obvious as these sorts of decisions get. Kinsler is already 35. He’s going to cost either $11MM or $12MM, depending upon whether he wins the A.L. Gold Glove for second base. (More on that here.) And it’s perfectly plausible that he could, since he continues to draw top-notch reviews for his glovework. Though Kinsler has dipped at the plate this year — he’s at career lows in batting average (.234) and slugging (.397) and is fighting to stay ahead of his prior low in OBP (currently .309) — he has a lengthy record of above-average hitting. And he also carries only a .243 batting average on balls in play this year despite making more hard contact (37.2%) than he ever has before, indicating some positive regression could be on the way. Even in a down year, Kinsler will put up at around 2 WAR; last year, he topped five (and, by measure of the DRS-based rWAR measure, did the same for the three prior seasons as well).
Bottom line: teams are going to see appeal in adding such a high-quality veteran at a palatable price on a one-year deal. Detroit has no real business employing Kinsler at this point. While his partial no-trade clause could factor in, Kinsler will surely see the merit in finding a new home with a contender. Demand at second base may not be immense, but there should be enough to support a decent return. The Tigers should be, and likely are, laying groundwork now to begin an auction process for the veteran.
2. Listen on Michael Fulmer, but hold out for a huge return.
You’ve heard the phrase “controllable, top-of-the-rotation starter” — or some variation of it — discussed quite a bit in recent months and years. Everybody wants ’em, but there aren’t enough to go around. And as that class of pitcher goes, Fulmer is near the top.
Fulmer is still just 24 and won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2016. He won’t reach arbitration until 2019 (as a Super Two) and won’t hit free agency until 2023. His overall ERA has sagged this year on the whole, but he carried an exact match to last year’s effort (3.06) following his start on July 15th. Fulmer faded as a nerve issue became problematic. While that did ultimately require surgery, it’s not expected to limit him next year — and, as an added bonus, his elbow ligaments just received a visual inspection and clean bill of health from the world’s most famous baseball surgeon (Dr. James Andrews). Though he doesn’t rack up all that many strikeouts, most agree it’s not a concern, as Fulmer dominates with a four-pitch power arsenal that may allow him to continue to suppress batting averages on balls in play.
We’ve already heard of some teams approaching the Tigers with interest, and that’ll surely continue. The market has produced huge returns for pitchers such as Chris Sale and Jose Quintana; while Fulmer doesn’t have the former’s excellence or the latter’s track record, he’s much younger and cheaper. Clearly, even with the surgery, he’s one of the game’s best trade chips.
Under the circumstances, the Tigers ought to listen in earnest to offers on Fulmer. But the club would be foolish to pre-commit to dealing him for less than a true haul of young talent. There’s always risk in hanging onto a pitcher that has immediate and long-term value. But that’s just what the team should be willing to do if suitors don’t come calling with packages featuring multiple players that project to be quality big leaguers.
3. Don’t be afraid to lose.
Of course, Detroit shouldn’t hold onto Fulmer or others out of any inclination to keep winning games. The pain will come, and already has; the danger now is in not embracing it fully. Nabbing a few more W’s in 2018 is likely only to cost draft position and extend the timeline of a successful rebuild. There’s nothing the Tigers can do but play Miguel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmermann, and Victor Martinez (if he’s able to return). Other than those high-priced veterans, who’ll need to reestablish some value to be traded, the efforts should be directed toward developing players, finding hidden gems, and generating trade chips.
That’s not to say that the Tigers can’t give some money to veterans. But they ought to be the sort whose control rights come with some real upside — younger free agents who haven’t yet harnessed their talents or still-useful veterans that slipped through the cracks. While the team had its reasons this year for giving significant time this year to over-30 role players such as Andrew Romine (114 games) and Alex Presley (207 plate appearances despite lengthy DL stints), doing so next year may not be wise.
Instead, the Tigers ought to be willing to part with useful relievers such as Shane Greene and Alex Wilson if there’s something worthwhile to be brought back. They should keep running out Mikie Mahtook unless and until he proves he can’t sustain solid production. And they ought to find out what they have not only in Dixon Machado, but also in reserve catcher John Hicks (who has hit quite well) and newly acquired prospect Jeimer Candelario.
If some buy-low opportunities arise in free agency, that’s always worth considering, but the Tigers already maintain a hefty payroll. And the bet here is that a wide variety of other teams will provide competition (and thus raise salaries) for the sort of short-term assets that might be of interest. Instead, perhaps, working the waiver wire and minor-league free agency will be more fruitful avenues for Detroit. The club should be open to taking chances there and perhaps also pursuing a few Rule 5 players.
It seems likely there will be fewer teams than usual in 2018 that truly don’t care about winning. The Tigers may join the White Sox as the only teams that are really just focused on aggregating young talent (though that could change in the coming weeks and there are a few other organizations that won’t be looking to spend much to improve in the near-term). That’s actually a good thing for Detroit, because the club has a clean path to a top draft pick and can operate without worry of results while other, slightly more advanced rebuilders begin to feel demand for results. The front office already made the hardest call in trading Justin Verlander. There’s no reason to look back now.
Trading Kinsler is not a need. If they can get decent return for him, fine. That may not come until he has a good 2018, then moving him at the deadline. But he provides veteran leadership for a young team, and that has value in and of itself.
Also would not be too quick to trade Fulmer. He just underwent ulnar transposition surgery, so he will not be someone garnering that huge return until he is healthy and comes back strong. He could anchor a young and stellar rotation down the line if they extend him, and he is one of the few current players who could be a veteran in their prime when the Tigers are ready to contend again. If that huge return does come, would not be afraid to pull the trigger, but that return is not happening anytime soon..
Tigers ARE going to lose the next few seasons, afraid or not, and they do not appear to be afraid. But they also have to field a team fans will pay to see. They won’t sign anyone expensive, but they should be looking for short term veterans that will make the team competive.
Would you be upset if Tigers paid for JD this offseason?
It wouldn’t make any sense to add a veteran guy to a long term deal. He’s already 30 years of age as well. By the time the Tigers are in contention again he will most likely be slowing down.
I love JD, and I still don’t like the trade. They basically got nothing for him. But he’s not the kind of player that the Tigers want to acquire, and not just because of his age or his price tag. The Tigers have a huge outfield and want players who can drive the gaps, run the bases, and go get the ball. They don’t have the prospects in the system now to fill the lineup, either in the near term or down the road.
“I love JD, and I still don’t like the trade. They basically got nothing for him.”
Would have gotten less for him after the season was over.
The trade meant they put 5 million in the bank and added 3 young upside guys to the system – specifically Arz’s 4th and 15th ranked prospects, plus a first full-year projectable player. That’s a huge haul in this years market
They got nothing of value. Dawel Lugo? Didn’t even crack the top 10 in the Tigers’ weak organization.
And yet they still would have spent 5 million more to get even less had they not made it – hence the team making the trade.
How about center fielder Cameron at West Michigan he has the speed and paneling the bat to be the perfect candidate
Daz Cameron was acquired in the trade for Justin Verlander. Avila did a good job of holding out and getting some top prospects in that deal. Maybe three prospects with a major league floor. But he had the luxury of keeping JV for another couple of seasons. JD was gone, and was a rental without much market for him, so they didn’t get much. Had to be done, but we don’t gotta like it.
Would you rather have paid JD whatever he was owed for the rest of the season to do nothing but hurt your draft position and gotten absolutely nothing when he left after the season?
Obviously not. I’d rather have gotten at least one player who has a better than even chance of starting on the major league team, or at least contribute. They didn’t get that. Even another player with a year left who would bring compensation when he left.
Look, I can’t criticize Avila because we don’t know what was available. I’m just saying that I don’t like the return. Seems that AA was hell bent on acquiring infield prospects, since AJ Simcox was the best of the bad lot that they had in the system. That’s understandable. He just didn’t get any good ones.
And they’d have gotten something. By making a Qualifying offer, they’d get a supplemental 4th round pick, assuming JD signs for at least $ 50 million, which is a near lock.
Obviously nobody offered anything like that, so that wasn’t an option for the Tigers.
I would argue Lugo has the floor of a utility infielder. He’s hit .277 with 13 home runs while playing solid defense. The kid in the deal Jose King has the potential to be the steal of the deal if the tools play out. King hit over .350 for the GCL and is only 18. Side note Alcantara is another MLB utility guy.
Link from the Detroit News about the prospects at the time of the trade.
detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2017/07/18…
I still think they will and should field offers on Kinsler during the offseason. They can always wait until next seasons trade deadline.
I was hoping while the Brewers were leading the NL Central that they would make an offer that Tigers would have jumped at before the Cubs took over.
A gold glove second basemen that hits for average (usually, maybe a change of scenery would improve his batting) should have been a hotter commodity at the deadline.
I can’t believe a contender or an outside chance team didn’t go after Ian.
I believe a team did put a claim on Ian. But no deal was made because I would have to believe that team was not serious about acquiring him. They claimed him to strictly block another team.
Ian can block trades to 10 teams. The Dodgers and the Brewers are two of them. The others are unknown. He made it known that he’d want a contract extension to waive his NTC.
I agree. It is entirely possible, if not likely, that Kinsler will improve his production at the plate in 2017, and his value shouldn’t be any less in July than it is this winter. He might even bump himself into compensation territory with a good season. His defense is as good as any 2B in the league.
If they’re going to trade Kinsler, then the same has to be considered for Jose Iglesias, who has just one season of arbitration left. The need for shortstops is a bit stronger around MLB than it is for 2B’s. Age doesn’t really matter to the Tigers if both players have just a year left.
When you say “strong haul” for Fulmer, I’d be looking at a Chris Sale type of haul of prospects. Otherwise, keep him. Four years of Fulmer at lower cost is worth at least as much as two years of Sale.
The article advocates trading just about any player with any value who can be traded, and then says “but don’t play Romine or Presley”. Hey, someone’s gotta play.
Building a contender is not just about cutting payroll, acquiring prospects, and then waiting for the kids to grow up. The Tigers lost 119 games in 2003 and were in the World Series in 2006. They had just a few draft picks, lots of trades, and a few key free agents. They started signing those free agents with Pudge before the 2004 season. They have a better nucleus in the lineup now than they had then, and they already have a much stronger base in the farm system. Time to start acquiring players who will be part of the next contender, not just prospects
“then says “but don’t play Romine or Presley”. Hey, someone’s gotta play”
Offering them Arbitration is going to cost money that can otherwise be wiser spent on players who might actually have a future with the club or become trade assets. Should be guys in the system that can stopgap, and if not there will be on the MILB free agent market.
The article doesn’t say don’t keep them, instead saying it might not be wise to do so. I assume that is what it is referring to
Arbitration for those two guys is a pittance. If those salaries are really an issue, then the team is not serious about winning. If they’re going to deal any player of value, those are exactly the type of players who are going to fill in until they acquire players to fill the positions, because they don’t have them anywhere in the system now.
Machado may take Romine’s primary utility role, and Gerber may be getting close, but they’ll need these kinds of gap fillers for a couple of years.
“then the team is not serious about winning.”
No, they’re very clearly not “serious about winning” right now, and instead are openly rebuilding. That’s how rebuilding works
Nope, the whole “rebuild but still put a good product on the field” thing doesn’t work. As a Padres fan, I know this all too well.
If you look at both the Yankees and the Tigers, rebuilding on the fly can work. If you look at the Tigers in 2006 and the team that missed the playoffs on the last day of the season in 2016, you will find JV is the only player who played every year. They changed every player other than him. The Yankees have done a fantastic job, because they had two of the most sought after commodity in baseball, power lefty relievers, and weren’t afraid to trade both. The Padres failure doesn’t mean it can’t be done, it just means it’s difficult to do so.
This is exactly right. The Tigers lost 119 games in 2003, and went to the World Series in 2006. It CAN be done. Obviously this team is different, but certainly no worse off than the 2003 squad. The farm system is stronger, and there are at least some players in the majors who don’t have to be purchased to build a contender. However, most of the good prospects are pitchers, and they’re all 2+ years away.
Both the Tigers of 2006 and the 2011- 2014 team had relatively few free agents and relatively few players who were drafted. In fact, the Indians and Cubs don’t have a ton of their own draftees. Savvy trades are a huge part of any reconstruction, even if the trades bring young major league ready prospects.
The notion that the core of a contending team is drafting prospects and watching the kids grow up is folly. We don’t know what was offered for JD, but it’s a safe bet that Avila was set on getting prospects, and infield prospects in particular.
“Getting rid of” players doesn’t move the team closer to contending, unless the return is players who will help the future contender, or the salary cleared is going to be spent on players who will be part of a contender. It takes a few key draftees, and a few free agents, but also several trades, minor league free agents, and international free agents as well
It’s like…you didn’t read the article
He’s going to end up a dodger In my mind. I don’t see a scenario where they pick up forsythe after the season he has had, and they have to move on from Utley, they may be reluctant to part with more prospects but I doubt kinsler demands a top 10 prospect personally. Maybe Peters and another for Kinsler? Don’t know much about their farm outside of the bigger names.
If anyone else makes a play for him maybe the mets or Arizona? Possibly the angels but the farm is so thin idk what they have to offer Detroit after the upton deal.
Thoughts ?
Kinsler’s OBP won’t impress the Dodger’s FO into parting with any kind of prospect package or paying $11M when they’re trying to get under the salary cap. I think our 2018 starting 2B is Chris Taylor. We have a glut of outfielders next year with Puig, Toles, Verdugo, Joc and more coming back. Also all of which are cost controlled for the most part.
I forgot all about Taylor, hopefully this season isn’t a flash in the pan and he can sustain.
How are you gonna trade Fulmer when he’s on the shelf with his second major arm surgery? Also in this article you forgot to mention get rid of Brad Ausmus.. he should have been canned 2 years ago. Brucey from the longest year is a better coach than him.
Right on Fulmer. He’ll be a good chip next deadline if he makes it back.
He isn’t having a major arm surgery though. He is having same one degrom had last offseason. And he pitched well this year. Same will go for fulmer. Which is why in the article he says the surgery shouldn’t keep teams from making good offers for them.
Good offers for him, fulmer. I mean.
Why is Fulmer with the Tigers? The Tigers would not accept Zack Wheeler for Cespedes.
If Chris Sale had the same operation with the same medical report last winter than Yoan Moncada would still be with the Red Sox.
There is always some team willing to take on pitching risk for a lower acquisition cost. If the Tigers want full price rather than half off they’ll wait.
Except Wheeler was recovering from another Tommy John Surgery at the time
Fulmers injury isnt half as bad as Wheelers- teams would still empty their pockets for Fulmer any day.
In an out of the box type thought, does Kinsler have the arm to play third? Of course if he is willing to play there is another thing altogether. He seems like a player who could pull it off and be an asset to a team that is seeking a one year fill in.
The Braves have Austin Riley, who hit over .300 in AA after a midseason promotion with power who theoretically could be promoted sometime next season, or in 2019. Someone like Kinsler (or another vet on a one year remaining deal) could tie them over. The Braves could of course go with some combination of Johan Camargo and Rio Ruiz.
I know that Kinsler is a fantastic defensive secondbaseman, but Ozzie Albies is the future at second for the Braves. The Braves would then fill an infield of Kinsler at third, Swanson at SS, Albies at 2b and Freeman at 1st.
The Braves also have enough prospects that they could certainly match up with Detroit without giving up their best prospects. I know it is a long shot but with Coppy anything is possible.
Why would the Braves do that? They’d be giving up prospects and adding a sizable salary to play an old guy out of position for 1 season …during their rebuild
That said, based off other questionable moves they’ve made, I could see the Atl FO doing it
I didn’t say that the Braves should send any of their best prospects, in fact I said just the opposite. The Braves have a ton of guys that may need Rule V draft protection and could deal some of them and perhaps someone who is further away in rookie ball or low A.
The point is that Detroit will take the offer they feel is best. Who knows if Atlanta offers that, or if they offer one at all. I don’t see the braves spending money on a big time free agent like Moustakas so I personally think they will seek a short term fix. Who that is, I have no idea, but I think Kinsler could fill that role possibly.
Out of the box and not likely solution, but more crazy things have happened.
Reduce payroll:
Trading Ian Kinsler is not the Tigers number 1 need. The Tigers will opt out of Kinsler.’s contract and cut payroll. Also, they will see the contracts of Anibal Sanchez, Jose Iglesias, Mike Pelfrey, Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Lowe and Andrew Romine drop off the books. too,
Trade Veterans:
The Tigers will 1) shop 3B/RF Nicholas Castellanos., 2) RP Shane Greene, 3) RP Alex Wilson for younger talent with a higher ceiling.
Development:
The Tigers need to hire a Manager and staff who can develop talent from within.
Showcase:
The Tigers will showcase Jordan Zimmerman and Miguel Cabrera in hope they rebound and become desirable by next mid season..
The Tigers will not opt out of Kinsler’s contract. For one thing, it will almost surely vest with 600 plate appearances. Secondly, opting out would be insane. He is a great bargain at his salary, made even greater by the $ 5 million buyout. There is also some tax rebate that they get only if they pick up his option- or if the option vests, even if they trade him.
Iglesias and Romine have a year of arbitration remaining. Maybe Romine is traded or non tendered, but they’re not just letting Iglesias go.
I agree that they will shop players and they should put together a better management staff.
The Tigers have already cut $ 93 million from their opening day payroll, or over $ 100 million in average annual value. They don’t need to cut more. Sanchez, Lowe, K Rod, JD Martinez, Pelfrey, J Wilson, and Avila come off the books.
Iglesias contract “off the books”? Do you even follow baseball? “Showcase” Miggy? LOL!
Need to read the Tea Leaves. Al Avila, who I was VERY suspicious of being up to the task, has won me over. He took over the WORST possible GM position after waiting 20 some years to get his shot. Bloated payroll, aging veterans and ZERO immediate farm help. People really did not understand the big slugger trade market at the deadline. HE DID! The fact that JD is blowing up does not matter one bit. He saw the other possible sluggers that were going to be available and he acted fast and accordingly. He received the BEST return of ANY slugger traded. Tigers were NEVER going to re-sign him for rebuild. AA is committed to finally designing a team that fits the part. MR I wanted big name guys who could slug. The results were okay since they got to the WS twice but when they needed a gap to gap hit and small ball, what they got was big strikeouts. Cleveland, KC, Houston is the blue print for them now. JD could never run down balls the way the Outfielders can in aforementioned teams. He is trading for long range 18/19 year olds that PROJECT to fit better. The 1984 Tigers were the last team that had home grown stars and Detroiters grew with them and loved them. I don’t want see a big slugger on this team unless we drafted him and if they ever need that one final piece, they will go out and get it. I am a season ticket holder so I know there will be people jumping ship and I am going to take this opportunity to move up and closer. Kinsler is needed on veteran team who needs his occasional power and solid glove. I love the guy but c’mon, lets give him a chance to win a WS. Luego might be ready but if not, Dixon Machado slides over to 2b and we keep Iglesias one more year. I like the idea of trading Shane Greene and Alex Wilson because they are not going to have many chances for holding a lead and Closing out a lead. Greene has MAX value now because he can throw many innings and he has proven he can close. Alex Wilson has proven to be dependable. Tigers have guys almost ready for these positions so 2018 is the year to throw them in the fire. VMART is gone no matter what. Cut him. A check and let him play elsewhere IF he can. We don’t need his leadership because new ones will emerge. Castellanos value is also MAXED out. He may hit a few more homers and RBI but he CAN”T run down the GAP balls. Trade him while his value is high.
You captured this perfectly. Everything written in this article could not have been written better. One of the best articles I’ve read on this site, having been a reader since 2011-2012.
I disagree. Moving a particular player is only a need if they are a cancer in the clubhouse. Their primary need is in acquiring talent. Fulmer is talent that does not need to be acquired. He’s already here. Trading him simply means the rebuild will take longer. Finally, with TV revenue being such a huge part of income for teams, the Tigers cannot afford to do a l-o-n-g drawn out rebuild with their contract coming up for renewal. If teams would low ball on Fulmer offers because of his surgery, what type of leverage would a TV station have if a team is in rebuild, with no end in sight?
Excellent observation; I agree with your “disagreement”. With experienced college players and skillful management decisions, it’s no longer necessary to do a complete rebuild. You have to stop trading players at some point and that point is where a team would purposely field a dysfunctional team in exchange for a bunch of question marks. It’s especially ludicrous for Todd to claim that it’s not advisable to hold on to Fulmer because you actually want to win games. DUH! That’s the goal of the team, no matter the talent you THINK you have, and the vast majority of paying customers aren’t there to observe player development.
Tigers can take comfort in the words of recently departed Gene Michaels who said, “You can trade any player on your roster regardless of contract or performance as long as you don’t care what you get in return.” DET would have much greater flexibility in their rebuild if they dealt Cabrera. Just the payroll savings alone should be incentive enough. Zimmermann, however, has to show some signs of turning it around before any team will take him even if DET eats most of that contract.
Al Avila also won me over. The 2017 Tigers’ situation is closer to the 1951 Tigers that it is to either the 1974 or the 2003 versions. Still, its differs because of the outrageous salaries.
Before doing anything else, Avila had to clear out salary. He took an enormous amount out in just one year and did get pieces in return.
Exactly. This team as it now exists is way more talented than the post ’72 team and even more so than the early 90’s bunch that was basically organizational depth. It’s certainly not a team that should adopt the idiotic notion that they “shouldn’t care about winning”.