Next up in our Three Needs series: the Cincinnati Reds.
1. Don’t (completely) abandon the pitching strategy.
Wait, what?! The Reds’ pitching staff has been the worst in all of baseball since the start of 2016, handily pacing the league in the volume of walks, long balls, and earned runs allowed. Actually, that doesn’t quite capture it: the Reds’ pitching staff has essentially defined replacement level since the start of 2016, making it a true outlier. By measure of fWAR, at least, the 2016-17 Reds hurlers have turned in a two-year stretch of futility that is orders of magnitude worse than any other organization of the past two decades, falling well shy of the dreadful 2004-05 Royals and 2002-03 Devil Rays units.
It goes without saying that there’s work to be done if the Reds hope to win at any point in the near future. But Cinci was largely justified in its recent approaching, having accumulated a significant number of interesting-enough pitching prospects at the upper levels of the farm. While few were seen as sure things, the club correctly assessed its chances of contention (not good) and declined to dole out significant contracts to back-of-the-rotation veterans. (Compare to the Braves and Phillies, who spent quite a lot of money on veteran pitching and ended no closer to contention than did the Reds.)
Clearly, the pitching hasn’t developed as hoped; there’s quite a lot of room for self-assessment and improvement. But injuries to Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Homer Bailey, and even Scott Feldman — the rare player the Reds did sign into the rotation — played a major role in the dreadful performance, too. The first three of those hurlers will have an offseason to rest up. Luis Castillo — acquired for Dan Straily, who was found last year as part of the budget-friendly strategy — looks like an arm to build around. And the Reds have seen enough moments of intrigue from a few younger arms to hope that one or more can round out the starting unit. Others will become affordable relievers, perhaps with some capacity to make longer relief appearances (an approach the organization has stressed, with some success thus far).
At this point, there’s little reason for the Reds to suddenly begin investing in expensive, aging starters. It would be nice to see some stability added into the mix over the winter — the Feldman signing could provide a guide, or the team could perhaps spend a bit more and take a shot on a higher-upside arm — and the Reds have enough talent on the position-player side to be a plausible contender as soon as next year. But continued restraint would be preferable to a move that ties the organization’s hands in future campaigns.
2. Shop Raisel Iglesias.
What do you do with the best pitcher on a historically awful staff? Trade him, of course! Sounds odd at first glance, I’ll admit, but the Reds could be in a position to cash in on the talented right-hander.
Iglesias could be the centerpiece of a big trade after turning in 71 1/3 innings of 1.89 ERA pitching (so far) with 11.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. The 27-year-old is guaranteed just $14.5MM over the next three seasons, though he can choose instead to opt into arbitration and would qualify next year as a Super Two. Iglesias can also be tendered arbitration in 2021, meaning the Reds control him for four more campaigns at what ought to be quite an appealing rate (though his outstanding pitching and saves tallies will boost his earning power in arbitration).
For organizations that will be looking into veteran free-agent closers, or that otherwise have interest in a multi-inning relief ace (and who doesn’t?), there ought to be a real willingness to part with significant young talent. Teams will no doubt notice that Iglesias has thrown harder and generated more whiffs than ever this year, elevating his trade stock to what may well be an all-time high. Given the risks inherent to any pitcher, let alone a flame-throwing reliever, it’s quite possibly an opportune time for the Reds to cash him in.
To be sure, it would be foolish to give up such a talented, controllable asset for less than a compelling return. But the guess here is that the club should have a good chance of prying loose some quality, near-MLB assets — all the better if that includes a young starter — that could be of greater long-term impact and help set the stage for a sustainable run of contention. Earnestly shopping Iglesias will at least give the organization a strong sense of his market value, and might just drum up a great trade opportunity.
3. Bid a fond farewell to Zack Cozart.
It’s unfortunate that the Reds were never able to cash in on the strong play of their veteran shortstop, who has turned from a light-hitting defensive whiz to an all-around star in 2017. Injuries and thin market demand make the failure to strike a match largely understandable from the front office’s perspective.
Now, though, the club is left with a decision to make — one that’ll be due just five days after the end of the World Series. Should the club choose, it can dangle a qualifying offer to the free-agent-to-be. If he declines, and signs for more than $50MM elsewhere, the Reds could score an extra draft pick just after the end of the first round. Of course, if Cozart falls shy of that amount in free agency, the team would receive only a choice after the second round.
When polled recently, MLBTR readers were split as to how the team should proceed, but most felt a QO was in order. Count me among the minority on that decision. Cozart is already 32 and has battled quite a few injuries in recent years. We have already seen the dearth of shortstop demand leaguewide; while he’ll no doubt land a solid, multi-year deal, Cozart likely won’t earn enough (with draft pick compensation required of a signing team) to earn the Reds the highest-possible pick. And he will need to strongly consider taking the ~$18.1MM payday for one year of work.
As good as Cozart has been, and as hard as it may be to see him walk away with nothing coming in return, the Reds simply can’t afford to take the chance that he takes the offer. The team already has over $60MM on the books and will owe some reasonably significant arbitration salaries. Rather than potentially adding an expensive veteran to the left side of the infield, Cincinnati should be anticipating how to clear the way for top prospect Nick Senzel, who destroyed Double-A pitching this year but is blocked at third by Eugenio Suarez — who has spent plenty of time as a professional at short.
jdgoat
Iglesias seems like he’s destined to be a national or dodger. I can’t really see any other wannabe contender give up what will be needed to get him in the offseason.
Brixton
I honestly dont know if the Nats have the resources unless they part with Kieboom and Soto
dodgerfan711
Dodgers have a clone of Iglesias in their mind and thats yasiel sierra
vtadave
One can only hope as a fan, but 15 walks in 21.1 innings in AAA isn’t an encouraging number.
Phillies7459
Nats I don’t see because the farm is so thin. Dodgers a maybe but i personally would like to see him continue closing.
Maybe Arizona? Even though the farm is this as well, and possibly Kansas City of they can keep the team together in some capacity.
jbigz12
The astros are more likely than Arizona. AZ doesn’t have the chips to get him. I’m sure th stros would prefer a lefty but Iglesias might be a better closer than Giles. Even if they didn’t want to close Iglesias he’d be a hell of a set up man and he’s already shown he’s capable of going multiple innings.
jimmyz
I could see the Rockies being a decent fit, especially if Greg Holland chooses to be a free agent. They have a pretty good farm system, have had bullpen consistency issues for a few years now, and are at a disadvantage to signing free agent pitchers given their playing environment. Plus the difference in salary between Holland and Iglesias and Cargo’s contract coming off the books should provide plenty of money to cover the bulk of the built in raises from player extensions and arbitration raises across their roster.
bigturtlemachine
Excellent analysis. Money for Cozart can be better used elsewhere. If Iglesias brings back a strong return, deal him. If the offers aren’t good enough, he’s a terrific pitcher to have. Some of those young pitchers are going to pan out, some won’t. Castillo particularly is promising. Davis, Garrett, Romano, Mahle, Rèed, Finnegan and others have a chance. Stephenson is beginning to show flashes.
FromTheCheapSeats
Agreed. National media types don’t often get it right when it comes to small market teams like the Reds. This is on the money, though.
CB 3
The fun part of baseball offseason is that everyone gets in on the trade discussions. Iglesias will appeal to many teams. Even smaller market teams that are close to contending will pursue him due to the control and $$ left. I’d take no less than two top prospects with a solid third pierce to. Reds could really cash in with an Iglesias trade.
alexgordonbeckham
Offer Cozart the 1-year qualifying offer. If he accepts, then you move him for whatever his value is in June/July and then call up Senzel.
jcraft21
No reason to give him 18 million. Trying to trade him in July with 9 million more on his contract will be impossible. Try to work out a three-year deal that’s reasonable or let him walk. I like him but it just wasn’t in the cards this year to deal him
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
If no QO then why didn’t they trade him for SOMETHING when they had the chance or just let the team that claimed him in August have him?
dust44
They have to get innings under these young dudes belts. They really can’t b worse then what they r sending out there anyways. This year they should of just threw Garrett, etc every 5th day and lived with growing pains. They were horrible anyway
redsfanman
Yeah, great article, capturing the reality of the Reds’ situation and not just the negative (worst rotation!)
When considering where the Reds will find starters you’ve always got to wonder who the Marlins have available, after the Reds grabbed Anthony DeSclafani and Luis Castillo from them.
There are a bunch of Reds players who COULD be on the move, in the right deal. Duvall, Winker, and Schebler are all corner OFs who need to start. Schebler plays some CF, but I doubt the team’s goal is to play him there. Phil Ervin has also shown some promise as a well rounded corner outfielder who can cover CF a bit. Billy Hamilton is due an arbitration raise from his current $2.6m, and a trade wouldn’t surprise me.
A blockbuster like Iglesias for Victor Robles, albeit a long shot, could make both Billy Hamilton and Duvall expendable. Just saying, that situation could change a lot. Alex Verdugo? Kyle Tucker? I’d only bet on Winker and Schebler starting for the Reds on opening day 2018.
The Reds have an interesting choice when it comes to replacing Cozart – switching now slick-fielding 3b Eugenio Suarez back to SS is an option, but people there’s sure not much agreement on that – it would be a step towards a big hitting team that values defense a little less than it has under the current regime. Moving Senzel to 2b only crowds an existing logjam (Gennett, Herrera [out of options], Peraza, Blandino). Scooter Gennett could easily be traded, sold high. They also have young Jose Peraza and slick-fielding-no-hit shortstop Zack Vincej.
In trades the Reds probably want close-to-MLB players, but seemingly are already set at C, 1b, 2b, 3b, and COF. Leaving SS and CF as position player targets. A proven starter would be nice, but the Reds already have 9+ serious starting pitching prospects in the 40 man roster, plus Bailey and Disco. As they fine-tune the late phases of their rebuild it seems a lot harder to find trade targets who fit what they need than ones who don’t. It could be a busy offseason for the Reds (2 outfielders, Scooter, and Iglesias traded), or nothing could happen. Neither would surprise me.
phils phanatic
why not re-sign Cozart to be apart of a “great clubhouse culture” with votto? with no market for shortstops he couldn’t require any more than a 3 or 4 year deal around 12-14M/year. u can then keep senzel in triple-a the full year unless he really forces ur hand, in which case then u worry about finding a spot for everyone to play.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
There’s a market for shortstops. That market just consists entirely of rebuilding teams who saw no reason to give up prospects for a guy they could just sign in a few months. Reds won’t be the only team bidding on Cozart this offseason.
bringoutthegimp
The Nat’s aren’t going to trade Victor Robles. If Harper leaves after the 2018 season they will have a lot of talented young outfielders that’s contracts are team friendly. A year ago I thought the Nat’s had to sign Harper to a long term contract. Not anymore!
SundownDevil
Decent article. Thank you for your opinions.
reds1421
The Reds need to do what most rebuilding teams do, and that’s package Iglesias with either Homer or Mesoraco. On the one hand you get less of a return on the other you get rid of a bad contract. I would also put together a package for Archer including Duvall and Hamilton
mrkinsm
It’d be nice for the Reds to jettison both Bailey & Mesoraco’s contracts, but it’s not as if the Reds need that money. They may be dead weight. Simply hope they come back healthy, if not their contracts will be gone in the next 12 and 24 months respectively.
No reason to kill your best trade target’s value with them lumped in.
biasisrelitive
rays aren’t trading archer and if they did it would be for top prospects
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Reds are probably gonna biff it on trading Iglesias like they did with Cueto, Leake, Chapman and Cozart.
thegreatcerealfamine
That’s just wrong in so many ways…
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
How so? They definitely biffed it on Chapman and Cozart. Cueto and Leake they waited until the last possible second and were forced to just take what they could get. They would have gotten more if they had traded them the prior offseason because the acquiring team would have gotten a full season of them and retained the right to QO them. I know Duvall has been good and Finnegan would be good if he wasn’t injured but the Reds could have done better.
jumsy
I disagree with both 2 & 3. The Reds offense is ready to compete right now and actually has built a decent lineup. I think they should re-sign Cozart to anchor the defense, and look to trade Schebler or Duvall for an innings eater pitcher who could have a bounce back campaign (Matt Moore). That would give you Desclafani, Moore, Bailey (never going to be able to get away from that contract), and 2 of the other young arms – Mahle/Garrett/Stephenson etc. rounding out the rotation. If they struggle in the rotation move them to the pen where the Reds still need some help. Keep Lorenzen and Iglesias as the 8th and 9th guys (trading Iglesias with 4 years of control means at some point you have to find another closer – if he only had 2 years of control, then I would shop him). If after 2 seasons the Reds are not ready to contend, trade Iglesias in season to fill the gaps at that time. Use the prospects in the rotation until Bailey’s and Mesoraco’s contracts are off the books and reallocate those funds to find a FA SP to anchor the staff. When Senzel is ready, you have Suarez who can be traded to get pitching if the rotation is still an issue.
stymeedone
What type of pitcher are you looking for to anchor the staff? Bailey’s contract will look like peanuts if they try to sign a Darvish type to anchor. I just don’t see that in the budget.
BrandonGregory74
You’ve got to keep versatility on the mound and in the field. Gennett, Suarez, Lorenzen and Iglesias are young pieces to build around. Mahle and Castillo are 2/5 of the rotation for along with Feldman. I could see Hamilton being dealt for a good lefty starter. I think Cozart stays and gets moved at the deadline. Peraza gets moved too in a package deal. Phil Ervin was a great surprise so now Schebler becomes expendable. I think Mesoraco’s value is as a DH/platoon OF so I see him getting moved.
Lance
Texas REALLY needs a closer. Their bullpen has like 20 blown saves this year. But, Rangers farm system doesn’t have a lot of top prospects anymore.