This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Click to read entries on the Phillies, Braves, Tigers, Reds, Pirates, Giants, Mets, Blue Jays, Athletics, White Sox and Mariners.
For the first time since 2011 (Buck Showalter’s first full season managing the club), the Orioles will post a losing record. While much of the offseason focus will be upgrading Baltimore’s lackluster rotation, the O’s also have some other holes to fill if they hope to return to contention in 2018.
1. Add some starting pitching. You could argue that the need for rotation help could account for all three entries on this list, given how long starting pitching has been a weak spot for the Orioles. The team already has plans to acquire at least two new arms to join Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman in next year’s rotation, though some creativity may be required in getting those new pitchers given that the Orioles are likely hesitant to deal any top youngsters from what is already a pretty thin farm system.
The O’s aren’t traditionally big spenders on free agent pitching, and Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com recently observed that the failure of the Ubaldo Jimenez signing may have entirely hardened ownership against making any more long-term commitments to free agent starters. The Orioles’ notoriously stringent medical standards will also be an obstacle, given that several of the mid-tier names in this winter’s free agent pitching market (Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jason Vargas, Tyler Chatwood, Jaime Garcia) have undergone Tommy John surgery.
Since trading prospects or making major signings could be difficult, the Orioles could instead add pitching by making a trade off the MLB roster. Brad Brach and Zach Britton will each become more expensive in their final years of arbitration eligibility, though Brach has the much lower price tag and more immediate value given Britton’s injury problems in 2017. Dealing a position player could be more difficult — Mark Trumbo is the only regular that seems expendable, though trade partners won’t be lining up for a player coming off a sub-replacement level season who is still owed $26MM through the end of 2019. Chris Davis‘ big contract makes him immovable, and it seems doubtful that the O’s would move franchise stalwart Adam Jones or second baseman Jonathan Schoop, especially in the wake of Schoop’s best season yet.
2. Upgrade the defense. Baltimore was a below-average defensive unit in 2017 as per both the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics, so if obtaining top-ticket pitching help will be difficult, the Orioles could help their run prevention by improving the glovework.
Jones has graded out as one of the league’s worst defensive center fielders over the last two seasons, and it may be time for him to shift into a corner outfield role. Right field will be open if Seth Smith isn’t re-signed, which leaves center open for a new face. Lorenzo Cain stands out as the biggest name in free agency, with Carlos Gomez as an interesting Plan B-type of option if the Orioles didn’t want make a long-term commit to center field with top prospect Austin Hays on the cusp of regular duty. You could argue that Hays might be the best choice now, though since he has yet to play at the Triple-A level, it’s more likely he’ll start 2018 in the minors.
3. Figure out a future with or without Manny Machado. The star third baseman’s future is the biggest long-term question facing the Orioles, and it’s a given that the club will again discuss an extension with Machado as he enters his final season under contract. If the O’s feel Machado can be kept in the fold, that will have a big impact on the rest of the team’s spending this winter, since suddenly the Orioles will have at least $300MM in future commitments coming for Machado’s new deal.
According to recent reports, the O’s aren’t planning to trade Machado before next season, so that scenario seems to be off the table. That leaves the club in the rather precarious spot of risking seeing its best asset leave in free agency for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick after the first round in return, rather than the haul they could receive for even one year of Machado’s services in a trade. A Machado deal could be explored at the trade deadline, of course, though the Orioles obviously don’t plan on being deadline sellers next year. The worst-case scenario would be a repeat of 2017, as the O’s weren’t entirely out of the race and felt obligated to add at the deadline, only to see their chances fade in August and September. If the same occurs next year, the Orioles will have missed their window for moving Machado and other key impending free agents like Jones, Britton and Brach.
Three needs.
Number 1 starter
Number 2 starter
Number 5 starter
bunds a 2 I’d go 1,3,5
Bundy is a 2? Bundy is a high end 4/low end 3. His ERA+ is 101 which means he’s essentially league average.
1st full season coming off tons of injury riddled seasons and posting an ERA close to sub 4 with plenty of blow up starts mixed in. The guy has plenty of potential. It’s been 1 full season.
Ya bundy isn’t anywhere close to a two.
Is bundy done improving? He could easily be a 2 next year. First full season in the big leagues.
3 needs
Trade Machado and rebuild
Trade Schoop and rebuild
Trade Jones and rebuild
Schoop should be untouchable. Jones won’t bring in much. But I agree with trading Machado. He’s leaving anyways
Why should Schoop be untouchable? He would bring in a great haul of prospects. He’s only under team control for the next 2 seasons and the O’s won’t in contention for a long time unless they plan on jacking up payroll.
Trade machado in the offseason, the needs starting pitching but if they don’t spend money in the market with the cheap owner they got they aren’t going anywhere.
The Orioles were 10th in payroll this year. How does that equate to cheap owner?
They need starting pitching. With Tillman, Jimenez and Miley off the roster that saves about $40-45 million. Surely they can get two starting pitchers for that type of cash. I’ll take #1, #2 or 2 – #2 or #1 and #3. I think they can find the #5 with what they got or give Tillman a cheap but give him a heavy incentive type deal (and force him to rehab this offseason to build back shoulder strength).. I like Ynoa, Asher, Castro, Blier, etc. But, they need to pick a #5 and give him at least 10 starts. No more of this yo-yo stuff giving one a start, then sending them down to minors, etc. A starting pitcher, even #5, can’t get in a groove if he is not used on a regular basis in a regular rotation.
Bleier will never start a game in the majors he can’t get out a hitter who isn’t left handed. I can’t imagine watching him attempt to pitch 5 innings. Asher brings nothing to the table either. I think Castro is best suited for the bullpen, he is really a 2 pitch pitcher. If any of our internal options wind up being a 5th starter I’d bet heavily on it being ynoa. If you watched the orioles you’d understand why we had to yo-yo pitchers back and forth. When Aquino, Asher, wilson. Etc come up and give you 4 innings you need another long man especially when you have ubaldo,Miley, and Tillman coming up in the rotation. When you get nothing out of 60% of your rotation you can’t help but shuttle them back and forth.
Heaney, Bedrosian and Skaggs for Trumbo, Britton and O’Day. What do you say Baltimore?
O’Day is not waiving his NTC to head to the west coast. He’s made that perfectly clear he wants to stay out east. That trade is not realistic in a multitude of ways.
Purely from a trade perspective, Baltimore would probably consider this as Britton is a free agent after next year and O’day and Trumbo are getting older and are not cheap. Furthermore, they get some quality in return and free up payroll for another couple of signings. However, the Angels would never do this as they add about 30 million dollar in payroll on top of their projected 162 million and little rotation depth.
That’s a bucketful of bad ideas.
Trumbo brings little to the Angels, and Heaney and Skaggs are counted upon for the rotation 2018.
In addition, the Angels are no longer collecting albatross contracts—that was Dipoto, not Eppler—and Trumbo showed all too clearly 2016 was an aberration. His underwhelming performance this season is in line with the other years.
I doubt the Orioles would see Bedrosian as an upgrade to O’Day in any metric except velocity.
The Angels would never be that foolish in trading cheap, controllable arms for an overpaid DH to a team which already has that box checked.
Left off fact that Britton now has bum knee and is Boras client who is FA after next season.
Bedrosian is an upgrade to Oday. Save millions of dollars and get a younger upside arm. Oday isn’t pitching in the 7th or 8th inning anymore in Baltimore. He wasn’t good in that role earlier this season. Angels really have no reason to accept that offer unless they believed Britton would be the Zach Britton of old that gave up nothing. Unfortunately I don’t think we’re going to see that guy again. He may return to being a good closer but idk if he can ever be that way again. One year of a questionable Britton for all that talent would be an easy accept for Baltimore and an easy no for LA.
I’ve been a fan since a kid in the ’60s and a season plan holder since 1984. There are needs (more than three) and there are to-dos. The biggest to-do is to diagnose and correct what is wrong with minor league pitching development. How and why do flamed-out pitching prospects regularly achieve such success elsewhere, so consistently? One theory says its Buck.
As for needs, it’s all about starting pitching. We need a 1, 4 and 5. Bundy is a 2 and Gausman is a 3. Assuming that Tillman or someone now on the team (Ynoa?) still can be a 4 or 5 (I really wonder), we still need two starting pitchers.
We’ll also need a third baseman (or a 2nd baseman if Schoop is moved to 3rd, where his skills seem better suited), after Manny is traded. Manny will not sign, for cultural if for no other reason. Trading him is the last great hope for restocking the farm system for sustainable contention.
What exactly does Showalter have to do with minor league pitching development? How does he have anything to do with Harvey and Bundy getting injured? How does he have anything to do with the organization having a boatload of pitchers who can put up glorious numbers in AAA but can’t get major league hitters out?
The case for this was laid out succinctly about a week ago in Eutaw Street Report. The crux of the problem, per that blog, appears to be in Buck’s fixation on the time of pitch delivery. Some guys lose something from their natural abilities because they are required to pitch too fast for them. Read the article; it’s pretty compelling.
Machado isn’t going to leave for cultural reasons. If he goes it will be for one thing and one thing only. Dollar signs. He’s not going to go down to Miami and play for nothing, if he chooses to go to NY I’m sure it’ll be because of money. If bundy and gausman aren’t 1-2 than you give up the hope of us having a #1 because he’s not going to come via FA or trade. I agree schoop should be the 3B if/when Machado leaves, that’s his natural position anyway. He doesn’t have great range at second and his cannon arm will play well at 3rd next to beckham. It really doesn’t matter though because when Machado’s gone schoop might as well go next because we won’t be any good. You can’t replace a Manny Machado.
Why is everyone arguing about 1,2,3 starter etc.? It means absolutely NOTHING. You need the five best quality starters you can get. Period.
the numbers are synonymous for performance. Bundy needs to pitch like a #2 for us to be any good. Gausman has to be pitch like a #2 or good 3 for us to be any good. If you’re an orioles fan you don’t need to be reminded how hard it is to win in the playoffs when you don’t have a guy you can count on multiple times in a series.
the numbers are synonymous for performance. Bundy needs to pitch like a #2 for us to be any good. Gausman has to be pitch like a #2 or good 3 for us to be any good. If you’re an orioles fan you don’t need to be reminded how hard it is to win in the playoffs when you don’t have a guy you can count on multiple times in a series. A playoff series is when your Jaime garcia’s and Andrew cashner’s don’t cut it. They might get you to the postseason but goodluck winning it with them.
i was totally expecting.. pitching, pitching and pitching.
I think the ubaldo argument is flawed. he was never a clear top of the rotation pitcher that the O’s went and just shelled tons of money for. He was a spring training signing because he wanted too much money and nobody else wanted to pay him what he was demanding.
If the O’s start off, and say, I want a top tier starter, and pay Chris Davis money for, they can get a good quality arm paying a market value price.
What irritated me about Ubaldo is the Os never did anything to try to fix his delivery problems. This season I must have watched 20 games where the announcers talked about how the opposing pitcher struggled for a season or two and then his pitching coach helped him totally rebuild his delivery. Some changed their wind up, some altered arm angle, some changed grips, etc. But, suddenly they were having success. I would have told Ubaldo two season ago he either scrapped his delivery or he’d be sitting in the bull pen or just cut him. I can’t understand why the Os put up with his inconsistent delivery. A new delivery couldn’t be any worse.
in 2015 they did change his delivery.He stopped going way behind his back.He could never get it down.He was worse so they told him to go back.
This series over all is good. Seems like a great many teams need starting pitching and it would seem some are going to fail in meeting those needs due to the amount of pitching available. I don’t like rating pitchers of a 1 through 5 scale. That seems very fantasy baseball to me and always has. I think four or five starters that match up with your teams strength would be better in the long run.
4. Go back in time and don’t sign Chis Davis to that absurd contract
Just like the Ubaldo Jimenez signing, the Davis contract was clearly a mistake from square one, and they’ll be saddled with it for the duration.
Adam Jones ever moving from center field while he plays in Baltimore is laughable. Jones might have too much pride to a fault. He might not be a great CFer anymore but he’s the team leader and he won’t move to a corner. It doesn’t do him any favors playing CF next to mark trumbo or Seth smith and trey Mancini either.
Isn’t what you’re suggesting the opposite of a team leader?
He’s the team leader but he won’t move to a corner. When dexter fowler was almost an orioles who do you think was going to play center field? I don’t see anyway jones moves over.
I believe the Crush contract is explained by the free agency departures of 2014. Nick, Nellie and Miller all left. At the time, those appeared to be sound Moneyball decisions by the Orioles. That Nellie would continue to way exceed any reasonable projection for a mid 30s aged guy could not reasonably have been foreseen.
So ownership gets completely castigated in the press, on blogs such as this, and generally on the talk shows and on social media for being myopically frugal, cheap for cheapness sake. And guess what: Angelos and the gang read this stuff. It gets to them. So, what do they do?
They throw the complaining fans an “Easter Egg” of ownership generosity in re-signing and otherwise-departed fan favorite free agent – Chris Davis happened to be that guy. We never had the chance to sign a top flight ace starting pitcher instead; those simply were not available. It’s revisionist history to suggest that was either/or.
So Chris Davis was our Christmas present. And in the sense, Trumbo was too. That either one now seems regrettable also is only clear with the advantage of hindsight.
The Trumbo deal is probably hindsight bias, but go back and read the comments on the Davis contract. It had its defenders, sure, mainly Orioles fans actually, but the majority opinion was that it was a massive overpay
I mean it didn’t take hindsight to not like the Davis deal. Last year was clearly an outlier for trumbo but the deal didn’t make me that mad because we had no idea about Mancini. I thought trumbo could at least knock out 30 bombs a year and drive in some runs at DH. with the Camden effect I thought that’d be very realistic. But cmon all that money to a slugger who had already showed us a pretty terrible year before his FA year. There’s a reason no one was in on him. 196 in 2014 then after a great year he gets 145 mil it didn’t take a whole lot of foresight to see dark days ahead. Although I didn’t know they’d be this bad this soon. It’s interesting to think about it if we would’ve kept Davis had trumbo been on the team the year and put up the numbers he did. I can only hope we would’ve let him walk.
I really don’t see how the Orioles can justify not trading Machado, Schoop, et al. They somehow need to replace 3 SP with (supposedly) no inclination to spend money, Sisco seems to be their only real potential trade piece (unless Castillo opts out), and their top internal options are Jayson Aquino and Alec Asher. I don’t see how anyone can look at this team and see a real contender here
If they trade Machado, Schoop and Jones, why would there be any need to acquire quality pitching?
Wut?! Build a team around a great Starting Pitching staff?? Who comes up with these outrageous ideas?!?
I think you misunderstand my point. If they rebuild, then obviously there’s no need. My point is that they don’t want to rebuild, so they need to try to plug those holes to contend, and I don’t see that as being particularly realistic
I think one thing they should look into is shedding some of those massive contracts, Next year, they owe a combined total of $35.5 million between Davis and Trumbo. Trumbo is the easier to be traded, since he’s getting paid a significant amount less than Davis, and has a shorter contract. It’d be hard to trade Davis though.
I’m kind of surprised nobody has mentioned that A) The lineup is too right handed heavy B) They don’t know how to take a walk. Nobody in their lineup has an obp over .350. They need somebody at the top of the lineup, preferably a switch/left handed hitter in front of their big boppers. so they have more to knock in when they do hit home runs. They may have to trade Jones and a prospect or two to get one reliable starter to go with Gausman and Bundy.. Sign a mid tier free agent like Cobb and MAYBE bring back Tillman if what ails him is more mechanical and not physical. Lord knows, they will NOT sign him if it’s even remotely thought it’s physical. They just need to recognize better then the Royals at the trade deadline next year, if they’re on the fringe, they better sell!
Easy in theory hard to accomplish. We don’t have open positions to just balance the lineup out. Every slot in our lineup is filled except for right or left field. We can add a high OBp lefty kinda what we were going for with seth smith. Maybe that high obp lefty can steal bags too but idk how we’re going to get one of those. Unless we dump trumbo for another bad contract there’s no way to balance the lineup out. SP is way more of a need. O’s not taking a walk is old hat, crazy to expect any different. Hopefully sisco can be a high average obp guy but that’s a tall task for a rookie catcher.
You have a hole at SS since I’ll assume Hardy will be let go. How about Jed Lowrie with the A’s? Could put Machado back to short and play Jed at 3rd. Switch hitter and gets on base. Not ideal for a leadoff hitter without speed, but who needs speed when you have 5 or 6 guys behind you that can hit 25-35 bombs each? Shouldn’t cost you a ton of prospects either.
You’re probably not following the orioles because tim Beckham is our SS. No need for an infielder of any sort.
Either the O’s use Brach or Britton as a chip to acquire a SP (Brach seems like the one that could be the one that would accomplish that with a prospect or 2).
Or they have to bite the built on a mid tier FA SP (Cobb?)
Then add a few buy low SPs to battle it out.
4. Get rid of Dan Duquette. He has not brought anything to the table for the Orioles period. Anyone could have performed as well or better than him. Huge mistakes in regards to signings is crippling the orioles.
Mets to Orioles: Harvey, Flores, Robles and PJ Conlon. Orioles to Mets: Machado
Useless to the Orioles. Machado trade just kicks off a rebuild, they would have no use for mediocre role players then
The Orioles 3 biggest needs are to Fire Duquette, improve starting pitching, look at international signings, develop minor league system, improve scouting. Yeah I know it’s more than 3, but if you have watched them this year you know 3 isn’t enough.
Machado to the cardinals. Trade Weaver, Grichuk, and Hudson. That gives two young studs pitchers and big league OF. They say they don’t want to rebuild but this allows them to rebuild but contend earlier than any other trade for just prospects.
Hudson is far from a stud, hasn’t even thrown a pitch I never the majors but Weaver is. I’d honestly consider that one though.
Hudson was Cards pitcher of the year. They have a lot of young arms so I think that says something. But yea agree that weaver is the gem of the deal. Seems to fill needs for both teams
So if you were GM, which teams would you look to if you’re putting Machado on the block? Dodgers make the most sense to me, b/c they have the prospects and potentially either Turner or Seager to include as a center piece.
White Sox also make sense but that keeps Machado in the AL which I think the Orioles will try to avoid.
Baltimore’s got talent to trade, the problem is they waited a year too late to trade them. Britton should have been traded last winter. $12 mil for a closer is crazy, he was never going to have as good of a year as he did last year. He probably could have fetched at least one top 10 organizational prospect and another B/B- prospect.
They could easily trade Brach and Britton and still have Givens as a closer and O’Day as a set up man. Why keep the first two especially if the end result could be at least 3 top 100 prospects?
Thank you captain hindsight. Zach Britton’s ERA was .59 last year. Where do you think he was going? Oday isnt the same pitcher he once was anyway. Brach and givens are much better high leverage relievers than Oday. The goal was to make the playoffs like we did last year not get 3 top 100 prospects. It’s easy to say that with hindsight but what do you think the orioles chances of being good were with givens and Oday as the only good relievers in your bullpen? Not good.
I don’t count the play in game as the ‘playoffs..’ It’s an insult to suggest otherwise.
Second, you’re proving my point. Britton had an all time great season, so instead of trading when his value will never be higher, they kept him and the same issues they had last year (lack of starting pitching, right handed heavy lineup).
Maybe I don’t value closers as much as you do, but that $12 million saved could have been used for something else.
If the O’s are out of it by July of next year, they’ll simply have to deal their veterans. I just don’t see them making the necessary moves or committing significant dollars to solid front line SPs this winter. BAL matches up very well with ATL in a Schoop trade which would net them the young arms the organization needs so badly. Though Machado will be a rental, he will tip the balance for any contender. STL has the minors talent to make it worthwhile. I still say BAL should offer Chris Davis and his entire contract to the Mets for Matt Harvey. While it may seem insane in the surface, it actually makes a lot of sense for both teams.
I Iike the Davis-Harvey swap. Maybe the O’s can turn him around. If nothing else, they will have some $$ to use to hold Machado.