With the offseason looming, it’s easy to focus on the top free agents this winter will have to offer. We at MLBTR reinforce that line of thinking with monthly Free Agent Power Rankings that profile the top names slated to hit the open market and ranking them in terms of earning power.
Settling for a one-year contract isn’t an ideal route for most free agents, but that doesn’t mean that those (relative) bargain pickups can’t bring significant on-field impact to the teams with which they sign. While none of the players on this list received all that much fanfare when signing, they’ve all provided some notable benefit to the teams that made these commitments:
- Kurt Suzuki, $1.5MM, Braves: Suzuki languished in free agency for several months as players like Jason Castro, Matt Wieters and Welington Castillo all generated more attention from teams and fans. However, it might be Suzuki that has provided the most bang for buck on last winter’s catching market. The 33-year-old has had a surprising career year in Atlanta, hitting .266/.344/.507 with 15 homers to date. Some have been quick to suggest that Atlanta’s new homer-happy stadium has benefited Suzuki, and while that may be true to an extent, he’s hit for more power on the road than at home. He’s put himself in position for a possible two-year deal this winter, but if he has to settle for one yet again, it should come at a higher rate.
- Adam Lind, $1.5MM, Nationals: An awful 2016 season and an overcrowded market for corner bats created some questions about whether Lind would have to settle for a minor league contract late last winter. He ultimately secured a guaranteed deal, but it came with just a $1MM base and a $500K buyout of a mutual option. For that meager commitment, he’s given the Nats 267 plate appearances with a .297/.352/.490 slash to go along with 11 homers. Like Suzuki, that might not land him a starting role, but it could land him multiple years as a complementary bench piece.
- Chris Iannetta, $1.5MM, Diamondbacks: Iannetta has not only rediscovered his power stroke in 2017 — he’s made it better than ever. The 34-year-old’s .249 ISO is a career best, and he’s slugged 14 homers. While that’s still four shy of his career-best with the 2008 Rockies, Iannetta’s 14 big flies this year have come in just 272 PAs, whereas he needed 407 to reach 18 back in ’08. He’s also bounced back from a down year in the framing department and been above average in that regard, per Baseball Prospectus.
- Jhoulys Chacin and Clayton Richard, $1.75MM each, Padres: The Friars signed four starters for $3MM or less last winter — Jered Weaver and Trevor Cahill being the others — and have received a combined 345 innings out of this pair. Chacin’s run-prevention (4.06 ERA) and strikeout rate (7.44 K/9) have been better, while Richard has 13 more innings (179 total), superior control (2.6 BB/9) and superior ground-ball tendencies (59.1 percent). Neither is going to be mistaken for much more than a back-of-the-rotation stabilizer, but both have done enough to garner larger commitments on the upcoming open market.
- Brian Duensing, $2MM, Cubs: I doubt I was alone in being surprised to see Duensing, 34, land a Major League deal last winter on the heels of a lackluster season in the Orioles organization. Duensing, though, has quietly been outstanding for the Cubs. In 54 2/3 innings, he’s logged a career-high 9.05 K/9 rate with 2.30 BB/9 and a 47 percent ground-ball rate en route to a 2.63 ERA. He’s held lefties in check reasonably well, but the first time in his career he’s also striking out right-handed batters at a lofty rate. In fact, the .211/.276/.317 that righties have posted against him is actually weaker than the .256/.300/.388 slash to which he’s limited left-handed bats.
- Matt Belisle, $2.05MM, Twins: Belisle’s inclusion is arguable; he’s posted a pedestrian 4.36 ERA with 8.55 K/9, 3.69 BB/9 and a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate. Those numbers are largely skewed by a putrid month of May, however. Since June 3, Belisle has a 2.25 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning and improved control and ground-ball tendencies — all while stepping into higher and higher leverage roles. He’s now serving as the Twins’ closer and has a 1.54 ERA with a 29-to-5 K/BB ratio since July 1. He’ll be 38 next season, so the earning power here isn’t sky-high, but he’s probably earned a raise, barring a late collapse.
- Logan Morrison, $2.5MM, Rays: Few players have benefited more from one-year, “pillow” contracts in recent memory than Morrison, who has parlayed his $2.5MM deal into a .248/.355/.529 batting line and a 36-homer season campaign to date. Morrison only just turned 30 years old, so he’ll have age on his side this winter as well. A three- or four-year deal seems plausible for Morrison even with the diminished recent market for corner bats.
- Alex Avila, $2.5MM, Tigers: Avila hasn’t been as excellent with the Cubs as he was with the Tigers, but he’s still among the league leaders in hard contact and exit velocity — both of which have beautifully complemented his always-terrific walk rate (15.9 percent in 2016). With 14 homers under his belt and a batting line that grades out roughly 25 percent better than the league average, per context-neutral metrics like OPS+ (124) and wRC+ (127), Avila could vie for a multi-year deal and/or a starting job this offseason.
- Joe Smith, $3MM, Blue Jays: Smith’s K/9 has nearly doubled, from 6.92 in 2016 to 11.86 in 2017, and he’s posted a dramatically improved 1.82 BB/9 this year as well. Smith has also served up just three homers in 49 1/3 innings of work, and his 3.10 ERA, while solid, is actually representative of some poor fortune in the estimation of fielding-independent metrics (1.97 FIP, 2.35 xFIP, 2.34 SIERA). He’ll be 34 next year but should top that $3MM mark and could net the second multi-year free-agent deal of his career.
- Andrew Cashner, $10MM, Rangers: MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently took a more in-depth look at Cashner, noting that his strong 3.19 ERA isn’t backed up by his K/BB numbers. Cashner’s complete lack of missed bats — he has the lowest swinging-strike rate and second-lowest K/9 rate of qualified MLB starters — is going to limit his earning power. But, he’s undeniably been better than he was in 2016, his velocity is comparable to last season and he’s limited hard contact quite well. A multi-year deal is certainly a possibility this offseason.
- Carlos Gomez, $11.5MM, Rangers: Gomez’s production hasn’t reached the star levels it did in 2013-14, but he’s been a better performer at the plate this season. A spike in his OBP (from .298 to .337) is due largely to a massive increase in the number of pitches by which he’s been hit, which is less encouraging than if he’d upped his walk rate considerably. However, Gomez has also shown quite a bit more power in 2017 than he had in recent seasons (.208 ISO in ’17 vs. .153 in ’15-16 combined), and Defensive Runs Saved feels he’s improved in center field as well. Gomez won’t see the massive payday he looked to be on pace for after 2014, but he’s still young enough to notch a multi-year deal this winter.
Notable exceptions: Neither Welington Castillo nor Greg Holland is included on this list, though both have provided good value to their new teams (Castillo in particular). While their contracts are often referred to as one-year deals with a player option, that type of contract is no more a one-year deal than Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184MM deal with a third-year opt-out is a three-year deal. Both players were guaranteed the possibility to be under contract for two years, and those agreements are considered two-year deals for the purposes of this list.
Jerry Blevins has also given the Mets terrific value on his one-year, $6.5MM deal, but the club option attached to that deal is a veritable lock to be exercised, so he’s unlikely to hit the free-agent market again following the season.
halos and quacks
A 3 or 4 year deal is close to impossible for LoMo imo. Like you mentioned, nobody pays for corner bats like his anymore, and with one decent season under his belt at age 30 I couldn’t imagine any team being dumb enough to sign him for anything over 2 years. You know this as well as I do, but the market has changed and LoMo just isn’t what teams look for nowadays
newagescamartist
I think LoMo will get a 3-4 year deal worth quite a bit. He’s done well for himself this season, and organizations will pay big bucks for that kind of production no matter what position it comes from.
DD martin
Lomo might get 2 years and $10-12 million total over the deal. I can’t see anyone laying more than that. The track record just isn’t there to commit to anything more than that. If he were to get 3 years that option 3rd year would have to be a team option with low buyout, maybe $500k
jbigz12
2 year deal for 12 mil total? Or per season cause Brandon moss managed to get 2 and 16 this offseason and Morrison will certainly get more than that.
jdgoat
No Joe Smith?
Steve Adams
Smith should absolutely have been on there. That was a complete oversight on my part, and he’s been added.
Chris Iannetta as well, though he was initially on there and then was a copy/paste casualty when I decided to re-order the list so it was from cheapest deal to most expensive.
Thank you for mentioning Smith.
partyatnapolis
austin jackson?
Steve Adams
Jackson will be on the list of best Minor League deals when I do that this month, but he didn’t make the cut here since this is all guys that signed one-year, guaranteed MLB deals.
partyatnapolis
ahhh makes sense. looking forward to that list. love seeing guys make good on minor league deals
Solaris611
Of all players on this list I think Clayton Richard will garner the most attention this winter. He’d be a solid 3 or 4 starter for most teams especially since he’s put up the kind of numbers he has as a top of the rotation SP on a rebuilding SD team. I could see the Cubs, O’s, Angels, TOR, SF, and SEA all offering multi-year deals.
iains 2
Personally, I’m allergic to a whip of 1.5
gbuff
Free Agents Who have boosted……….not “that” have boosted. when referring to a person, please use “who”
thegreatcerealfamine
Is your life complete now?
gbuff
If someone is going to be a writer……..they should know how to write…..
cxcx
Free agents aren’t people, they are sports commodities.
And he’s writing well enough that every single person who read the title of the article knew exactly what he was saying without giving it a second thought.
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
When starting a sentence, please capitalize the first word (you used when, not When.)
GaryWarriorsRedSoxx
The word “who” should not be capitalized in your sentence above.
empiresam
What about Mitch Moreland? While the cost wasn’t cheap at $5M and he’s been streaky, his defense and clutch hits warrants a mention.
Steve Adams
I don’t think Moreland has done much to really improve his stock. Everyone already knew he could play an above-average first base. He’s basically been a roughly average (slightly below) bat that’s having a poor finish. He’ll be 32 and heading back out into a market flush with corner options once again.
I think he’s looking at a similar deal from a team that wants a cheap glove at first base and a bat that won’t kill them.
pjmcnu
So glad the Mets (a) resigned Jerry Blevins, and (b) included a team option. Nothing else has gone right, but that did. Hit the reset button, and make a run next year.
tsc32
Hope Gomez finds a nice spot next season. Rangers seem pretty set with Calhoun, DeShields, Mazara + Robinson and Rua so I hope we let him move on. As long as he stays away from Houston, he should be fine. For whatever reason, they’re just a horrible pairing.
SD Speak For Myself
Any team that gives Cashner multi-year / big $ will regret it. Big hat…no cattle!