The first-place Red Sox’s success this year has come despite a lack of power (they entered Saturday 26th in the majors in home runs and 27th in ISO), leading Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe to argue that they have to pursue Giancarlo Stanton in the offseason. It’s unclear whether the new Marlins ownership group will shop the right fielder and potential 60-home run man, but Cafardo contends that a Red Sox offer consisting of left fielder Andrew Benintendi, left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez and a pitching prospect would grab the attention of Derek Jeter & Co. As great as Stanton has been this year, it’s tough to imagine Boston parting with Benintendi, a top-flight rookie who won’t even be eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 campaign. Stanton, meanwhile, is still due another $295MM from 2018-28, and his contract includes full no-trade rights and an opt-out clause after the 2020 campaign.
More from Cafardo:
- It won’t be a surprise if the Blue Jays shop third baseman Josh Donaldson in the offseason, per Cafardo. Donaldson, 31, will enter a contract year in 2018, one that will see him make $17MM. While Donaldson has missed a large chunk of time this year for a Jays team that has had a terrible 2017, he’s in the midst of yet another highly productive season, having slashed .253/.379/.515 with 23 home runs in 396 plate appearances.
- Yankees general manager Brian Cashman went to Japan last week to watch two-way sensation Shohei Otani, a right-handed ace and left-handed slugger who could head the majors in the offseason. Thanks to some recent trades, the Yankees have boosted their international pool money total from $4.75MM to $8MM, which could help them reel in the 23-year-old if he does become available in the next few months.
- Speaking of Cashman, if he’s still the Yankees GM after the season (his contract is set to expire), it’s possible he’ll be able to move outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury in a trade, Cafardo writes. The recipient of a seven-year, $153MM contract prior to 2014, the ex-Boston star has disappointed and become a superfluous piece in New York, which looks set in the outfield with Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks and Clint Frazier in the fold. The 33-year-old Ellsbury still has around $68MM left on his deal (including a $5MM buyout in 2021), but Cafardo suggests that the Yankees could get rid of him if they’re willing to retain approximately half of that money.
Cafardo is an idiot, and he isn’t respected in he city the “writes” for.
I’m sure he doesn’t believe half the things he writes. It’s probably more like, “let me write something controversial to get people talking.” And if that’s the case, he succeeds. Unfortunately.
Classic skip bayless move, get famous for being a moron who shouts nonsense
Why is a idiot??
Cafardo is a disgrace to true Sox fans. No way in hell Sox trade for Stanton. He’s not worth his own contract.
If Stanton wasn’t 27 I might agree with you. That said, I do believe that Cafardo, like most sportswriters, writes only to see his words in print.
Stanton isn’t worth his contract? He will never earn more than $32 mil a year and that won’t happen until 2023. He is the BEST homerun hitter we’ve seen since testing has become so much tighter. Add to the fact that he’s not an an all or nothing hitter and he should be well worth his contract. You are ASSUMING he will have steep declines going forward.
Based off of where the market is set, Stanton at .280/.360 and 35 hrs a year thru age 38 would be well worth his contract.
By the end of next year you are gonna start seeing $40mil/yr contracts dished out. Harper/machado maybe etc. three years from now they’ll be all over. By the end of stantons contract it will be an average one. It’s actually not that bad of a deal. But no way can you give up Benny for him. Betts before him because I don’t feel mookie wants to play here,not at a hometown discount anyway, and his contract is up much sooner.
I am going to disagree with you. Having $40m/yr contracts is based on the revenue streams continuing as they are in MLB. But, economic forecasts are saying that the advertising revenues and thus the huge cable company rights will be dropping through the floor in the next few years as a hiccup in the economy happens. That means we might see a few contracts that are high, but then the market forces will play out and the contracts will drastically decrease in AAV and term. There is also a possibility that should this royalty stream reset happen as forecasted, some teams locked into longterm megadeals will face serious fanancial problems. It might take 2-4 years from now for this forecast to play out.
You are spot on. In my opinion people make too big of a deal about Stanton’s contract. If you are a big HR hitter like Stanton you’re supposed to make more than anyone else, minus a Starting pitcher maybe.
The only thing I will say, add, is that we can’t assume who Dombrowski would suggest in trade, especially when it comes to Betts BUT I agree that he may not be happy here anymore and ever since Lovullo left. I also worry about his contract situation given they never agreed on a deal and Mookie was forced to take what the Sox offered.
I love Stanton and if hat was a reasonable expectation for 10 years, that would be great, but it’s not. This is his 8th season and only his 4th with more than 27 homers. Expecting him to perform through age 38 way better than he has through 27 is wildly unrealistic. Stanton at “.280/.360 and 35 hrs a year thru age 38,” which is significantly better than his career averages, is ASSUMING that he’ll do the opposite of decline. He’s had severe fluke injuries, but he also has other routine injuries almost every year that have made this season just his third with more than 123 games. Love him, would love to watch him launch balls over the Monster, but with his track record he doesn’t seem like a good bet to be on the field for 150 games/year for the next 10 years.
And for the Sox, he wouldn’t cost “just” $295 million. The luxury tax/draft pick penalties are way worse than they used to be and giving up a batch of pre-arb players to get one guy making that much would make it even harder to field a competitive team.
The Red Sox will be resetting the Luxury tax this season, so you can stop worrying about that. : )
Payroll CAP
Until the players stand up for themselves in a CBA negotiation you will not see a bunch of $40 million/year contracts. You are also going to see a lot more 30 year old vets getting short $5 mil per year deals instead of 3 year $45 mil deals.
There just isn’t room on the payroll for mediocre vets.
I’m lost. What draft pick penalties would there be for a trade acquisition? Also, you can stick Stanton in RF, move Betts to left and when HanRam leaves move Stanton to DH to try and keep him healthy.
Not sure what you mean by ..280/.360 and 35 hrs is “significantly better than his career average”. His career average is .269/.360 and 33 hrs. Being that he’s only 27 I think that 3 to 5 more years of 40 + hrs is a realistic possibility.
There is no chance they move the far superior defender in Betts to left Stanton would be a left fielder or DH in Boston let’s be real move the best defensive right fielder in the game to left wow really bad comment.
Ya if anything, Betts would move back to CF and Stanton would play RF, but it’s moot b/c I don’t see them getting him, or needing him, as I said previously
The draft pick penalties being referred to are consequences of going i to the luxury tax after further acquisitions. It wouldn’t be a direct penalty, but theoretically wpuld contribute to it indirectly. That part is a little more ridiculous to bring up now, co sided g the Red Sox are resetting their luxury tax this year, and are likely to go into it moving forward anyway
Lol wow I got bodied by autocorrect again
Compared to the percentages of players salary increases, year to year, actually Stanton’s salary will be in line according to his current abilities. It could be a little high as he ages. But, that might be the price you pay for potential World Championships! Not just play-offs.
My guess is if all the Yankees have to eat is just half ($34MM) of the $68MM Ellsbury would still be due at years end the Yankees would move him in a heart beat. My guess it would be closer to $45MM they would have to eat. That would leave the acquiring team about $21MM to pay over the 3 remaining years ($7MM per)..
Agreed, Ellsbury is a 1 WAR player which is valued at about 8 million a year.
I would trade him at 45m yesterday
I’m not sure I’d give him a roster spot at this point unless I was paying him to be a 4th outfielder. How could you bank on him as your starting CF or LF with his injury history and inconsistent performance play if you are trying to. Hild a winning team? Shame, he used to be one of the most fun players to watch in the sport.
He is correct and I agree that the BlueJays should be shopping Donaldson hard in the off-season to score a haul. The team as built will not compete again in 2018, might as well get good return for some pieces.
disagreed.
the jays don’t need to shop donaldson they have deep enough pockets to sign him and fill the holes they need at 2nd (because having travis on the shelf for 80 games every season isn’t practical) and at LF because an ex power hitting 38 year old isn’t the answer there either.
other than that they just need to be healthy. tulo when healthy is still one of the best defensive ss in the league despite getting a bit long in the tooth and hamstrung w unjury. that’s a contract the jays might be stuck with unless the eat a part of it to deal him. same idea w martin.
they have a vg 4 man rotation as well when healthy as seen last year.
i sgeee w you they need to acquire some pieces but they won’t deal donaldson to do it. shapiro has made that commitment to signing him already.
don’t be surprised if you see stanton in a jays uniform. they offered edwin 80/4 so they aren’t afraid to spend money. stantons contract isn’t agrirgious and is very much in line w what harper and machida will be looking for in FA. he would thrive in AL ball parks. just a thought.
Some good thoughts. I like it. I don’t think that the Jays will sign donaldson, because of the injury concerns and age. The Jays have the money but Shapiro likes a younger core and doesn’t like long term high priced contracts, so I think Stanton is out unless the term is reduced by the Marlins helping out financially.
The pitching staff isn’t what we think it is. Happ is declining fast because of age and I hear that Sanchez finger isn’t fixed as they hope. Estrada is about done, he will decline even more next year. That leaves stroman and he is a solid #2. Next year moving forward the Jays will be worse off in the starting pitching department unless the Jays acquire starters from trades or free agency.
Tulo needs to be moved to third or first for his health. He is still one of the best in the game defensively although his range is declining. Tulo has said he won’t accept another position which presents an attitude problem in the clubhouse. He will be injured a lot if he stays at short and with that contract, the Jays cannot afford to have that money on the shelf so he has to move to another position. This likely won’t be pretty.
Martin is an elite defensive catcher but his bat is also declining quickly. Jays may have to eat that contract to move him.
I think this team needs a full rebuild not just of few pieces to fill in holes. It will not compete next year as the Rogers KoolAid marketing is trying to say. #scoutseyes
we agree on many points.
well said.
thw team as it is cannot compete next year. what direction that front office takes is a mystery. the success behind smoaks signing and subsequent break out was a suprise to even them given they offered edwin the job at first.
that’s really the only upside signing to the offseason the jays had. pierce is servicable in the field and brings some much needed power to that line up.
other than that the jays were pretty stagnant in addressing issues that still are glaringly obvious, so this offseason they might need to make a bigger commitment to competing or wholesale because limping along as they are isn’t going to produce results at the ticket window or on the field esp when it comes w a 17% increase for season tickets.
being non committal in a division like the AL east isn’t a recipe for success.
really liked your comment regarding the kookaid.
Sorry but you don’t know Toronto very well if you think they’ll actually spend big money on any player. Shapiro was brought in by the owner for a reason, because he’s known as a guy who is good at finding good, cheap talent, while also not signing big contracts. Talk out of Toronto is they’re seriously considering rebuilding at this point and if they do they won’t be spending any money, they’ll be trading it away.
I hope that you are correct and the rebuild of the Jays happens sooner than later. I have been calling for it for a year or so.
If I have concerns with the Jays it is the professional scouting department/staff. When Shapiro was with Cleveland, they did a great job in amateur scouting and drafting but not so good in signing free agents, trades and waivers claims. The current Cleveland Mgmt regime had to clean up some of those mistakes before Cleveland could get to the playoffs. The same here in Toronto. The Jays have had some mgmt wins like Smoak and Leone but they have missed/screwed up on a very long list of others. Too long.
I agree with your assessment of the Blue Jays, but as an Indians fan I disagree.
For a while, the Indians were actually awful at drafting (Trevor Crowe, Beau Mills, Michael Aubrey, etc.). That’s gotten a lot better over the past few years, but for a while it was pretty ugly.
When it comes to trades I think his record is actually impressive; he got Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, he got Carrasco for Lee and Brantley for Sabathia (the rest of the pieces in those deals were bad, but Brantley was a gem as a PTBNL and if you can get a single guy of that caliber then it’s worth it), plus he got Gomes and Aviles for Esmil Rogers which still kinda blows my mind.
And the front office didn’t have to clean up any of Shapiro’s mistakes; Antonetti has been running things for a while, and even when he wasn’t he was brought up by Shapiro anyway. Antonetti is a lot like Shapiro, except for the fact that he’s more willing to go for it and make a big move, while Shapiro always kind of struck me as passive.
As a result, I’d agree that the Blue Jays seem headed for at least a partial rebuild at some point in the near future; throwing money around has never been something Shapiro loves to do, and he loves prospects A LOT. He’ll want to keep replenishing the system with his guys, especially after Anthopoulos basically gutted them in the trades for Price, Tulo, etc.
Yeah I would have to agree those trades were good, some others not so much. I was looking at some more recent Shapiro Cleveland signings too when I made that comment, like Swisher and Bourne, I have written in previous blogs a fairly extensive list of Shapiro era transactions that weren’t very good. All teams hit on some and miss on some and the current regime had to clean up some signifcant Shapiro era mistakes to make it to the post season.
Did I say drafting? I thought I said he was good at bringing in good, young talent.
I just noticed your earlier comment…mine was meant in reply to jimmertee instead, my bad
The Sox ownership would be idiots to give up Benintendi. Theyed be better of waiting for players to fall off their payroll and sign Bryant when he hits FA in a few years. Stanton is not the answer for the Sox.
Bryant isn’t set to hit free agency until 2022, a team like the cubs won’t let him go easily if he maintains any semblance of himself.
Sign Bryant? Back up brah… KB and Harper and Rizzo are going to be on the north side of Chicago for some years
Harper and Machado belong to the Phillies.
So wait…you would trade Benintendi, Rodriguez and a pitching prospect for Stanton? I personally think that package suggested is a joke. He would command much more but you would balk on Benintendi? At his best he would be near the offensive force Stanton is.
Yes, id balk at trading Benintendi. The kid can hit for power and average, as well as be a force in the outfield. Hes a rookie so hes controlled for the forceable future at what will likely be a bargin. Stanton on the other hand is not had at a bargin, and will only get more expensive as time goes on. Not to mention the fact hes a significant injury risk. Giving up Erod and another pitching prospect is one thing. Hell, throw in JBJ and Holt as well and I wouldnt care. Benintendi is the Red Sox future.
Benintendi “might” do this or he “might” do that. He might also peak out at being the next JD Drew. He might ended up leaving as a FA in 5 years. But right now Stanton is 27 and should be a 40+ hr guy who gives you a .280/.360 line. Probably even better playing in the AL and hitting in Fenway/Yankee Stadium and being able to DH the same way Ortiz did once he enters his 30s.
How much do you think the Sox would have to pay for a true power bat in FA? At least 25-30 mil a year for an elite one. Stanton will never earn more than $32 mil. More hitters like Benintendi than like Stanton.
Yes you balk at Benintendi because if there contracts. Stanton would have to outproduce Benintendi by 3.5 war just to make up the differnce in that contract. He may do that this year but highly doubt he will do that for the next 3 years. It’s pretty easy to see Beni hitting 30 bombs batting .300 and driving in 100 runs every year at peanuts for salary over the next few years. His value is extremely high when contracts are factored in.
And it’s very easy for me to see Stanton hitting .285/.360 with 50 dbls and 40+ hrs in Fenway. But I’m a Yanks fan, so….don’t bother on Stanton.
Then you have to hate seeing Benny in Sox uniform he eats that Yankee stadium up. Lol.
Yeah I don’t think so on the Ellsbury and Stanton points…
Not even close.
HELL NO to Benintendi being traded,,,,, Cafardo is a freaking MORON!!!!!
Cafardo needs to be placed in an asylum
No reason the red Sox should go after Stanton. Especially considering they’d be over the luxery tax if they do
Do you even follow the Red Sox? They ONLY care about Not going over the luxury tax threshold THIS YEAR. If they acquired Stanton in the OFF-SEASON like Cafardo suggests it would be fine!
Sox wouldn’t have a problem going over the luxury tax next year. If they can stay under it this year… the %is much less anyways.
Fool Carfado doesn’t realize that Benintendi has more trade value by himself than Stanton (once you factor in contracts). Giving up a haul like that for Stanton would be utter lunacy. He’s like a dumb fan calling in to sports talk radio.
Benentendi is a true 5 tool player that is not just the potential many people yack about, but actually has put up the numbers on the field this season AND has been a superb fielder to boot.
Throw in JBJ instead who has 3y of control left? Maybe, but not Benentendi
Cashman will make a strong push to sign Ohtani if he comes to the U.S.. He would be a perfect fit for the Yanks, and I would let him DH to see how it goes.
slider32, what does that have to do with what johnsilver said? (Edit – On second thought, I assume you meant that as a new comment and it’s probably an app issue)
Writers keep talking about Yankees and six having 8m apiece for Ohtani. What about the kids they signed already?
Haha, JBJ? Not a chance. I agree the Sox won’t trade Beintnendi, but the Marlins would not take JBJ as a centerpiece.
Don’t think Benny/Substitue player was intended to be the main piece, rather it was always Eduardo rodriquez. Benintendi there is no chance boston moves as much as any rational NYY fan (like u) knows. Some of the delusional ones might think so, but ones like yourself know better.
Rodriquez is like a top prospect and potential #2-3 when he’s fully healthy. His knee has been the problem and think he can anchor a deal. JBJ with 3 full seasons left after 2017 see no reason why not could be used as another piece if a team wanted a solid OF with many of the talents of benintendi, just prone to long hot/cold streaks.
Myself? Would think Miami would be looking for young prospects along with just Rodriquez anyway and Boston still has some.. Chavis, Groome. They may even want the Cuban kid Boston has kept buried at Pawtucket signed another 5y@10m per and pay half (or more) Castillo who raked last year.
If you were the Red Sox and had Stanton, would you take Eduardo Rodriguez or Jackie Bradley as the centerpiece in trading away Stanton? No, and the Marlins won’t either. Even together that offer is a non-starter, and I’m not a Marlins fan, or really a huge Stanton fan. The reality is that if the Marlins trade Stanton they will be looking for the future face of their franchise type players. High ceiling, pretty high floor guys. Not guys who will be solid players, and then to get their stars elsewhere. The Marlins will consider trading him for young stars and the salary relief will be secondary, and the only thing that makes them consider trading him. But they will not take simply salary relief as a priority and just solid players in return. Boston will have to give up a package at least the size of what Cafardo suggests to even get a real conversation going. The third prospect will have to be a good one as well, maybe not Groome, but someone with a high ceiling like him. Saving money likely will not reduce the package Miami wants hardly at all.
BENINTENDI
I take it from the Red Sox fans that they don’t want Stanton, and any trade involving Benintendi would, by definition, be an overpay? I’m curious what Marlins fans think. Hard for me to judge since I don’t see either of them, besides their stats.
I’m a fan of both teams, and would not want to trade Benintendi, but I personally think the Marlins should and would say no first; At least if it’s just Benintendi and Rodriguez…
It doesn’t matter though. I don’t think the Red Sox need Stanton right now. I wouldn’t mind seeing Justin Bour in Boston though. Obviously, that would be more of a prospect package going back
I’m not a fan of either team but I don’t see the Sox trading Benintendi for a guy on a $295m contract no matter the power he possesses.
I don’t think the Sox really have the pieces to land Stanton since Devers, Betts, Bogaerts and Benintendi are all off limits. I’d imagine Marlins would want an elite prospect or two, items the Sox gave up for Sale and others on the roster.
Not that it matters, but it’s a 3 year/$77 million contract. The rest doesnt matter when he obviously opts out, if he stays healthy
but if he gets hurt again your on the hook for the rest of the money
His injuries have been fluke injuries…and in 3 years from now, 7/$218 million for a 30-31 year old Stanton, who isn’t just a bat only guy, isnt going to be crazy. He’s having another monster year this year, and as the face of the franchise, that money isn’t a huge deal. It becomes a problem only when you consider the fact it’s the Marlins, and they don’t spend money, but the new owners, plus the new t.v. deal coming around the same time somewhat make that a moot point. So I don’t think the Marlins would be too beat up about it if he doesn’t opt out (He would only have to put up somewhere around 3-4 WAR per to justify it, which he is more than capable of doing for the next several years). I just think he definitely will opt out, unless something drastic happens to him
There’s too much unpredictability to just assume that he’ll opt – out though. Obviously, 3/$77M would be a fantastic deal for the team, but three years is a ton of time for injury, underperformance, etc. to pop up. Any acquiring team would have to do so planning for him to opt – in, because banking on him to opt – out would leave you in a really difficult scenario if he doesn’t
You aren’t imagining, you are Assuming, which would be a mistake. Other than Devers, who everyone knew was off limits because the White Sox asked for him in trade and were told No, don’t assume that anyone else wouldn’t be made available for Stanton or anyone the Sox like. In the right deal anyone could become available, even Bogey or Benny.
As a Marlin fan I watch many of the games. On most nights you could throw a grenade in the box seats and not hurt anyone. What would be like without Big G?
You’re going to find out because Jeter expects his ownership stake to be free.
Ellsbury is to the Yankees what the Panda was to the Red Sox. He’s a badly overpaid bum.
The Giants will be paying Pablo Sandoval almost $95 million for a Negative 2.9 WAR
As of now, Ellsbury has made about that much in his contract thusfar and has put up (a very bad) 7.5 WAR.
Ellsbury’s is bad. Sandoval’s is/was far worse.
Boston is on the hook for Sandovals contract.
I meant Red Sox, not Giants. Sorry.
I’m pretty sure the Giants are only paying Panda the league minimum.
I know. I meant Red Sox, not Giants.
I think the red sox will go after Miguel Cabrera
I don’t think anyone wants to touch miggy rn, even without a high price
They need to spice up the rivalry with the Yankees. Who better than Miggy to do that. Nobody on that team is willing to fight. CC calls out Nunez for bunting and Nunez apologizes? Wouldn’t have happened 10-15 years ago.
The Red Sox have had ample opportunity to add power, whether it was free agents (Chris Davis, Mark Reynolds) or trades (Jay Bruce, Joey Votto) and passed.. They are not players in the Stanton Sweepstakes. They would have to give up more than Benintendi and E-Rod, most likely they would have to add Devers or the equivalent.
There is no way the Sox are doing that. Unless you expect the Marlins to eat that contract.
Eat the contract? Why are people acting as if Stanton’s contract is a sunken cost?
So a David Price on a 7/$210 contract is less of a risk than Stanton, who can be moved to DH to help preserve his health????
I understand there’s an additional cost in prospects but Stanton is a generational talent. What is the man-crush on Benintendi? He can very easily end up being a JD Drew, Fred Lynn, Grady Sizemore type player. Good speed but not enough to be an elite 40+ SB threat. Power but probably not much more than a 25 hr a year guy. Good contact but probably more of a .280=.290 guy. You can find those guys. You know how often a legit 600 hr hitter becomes available? There’s exactly 9 of them in the history of the game.. 6 of them in the last 40 years and 3 of them were most likely steroid users. That means 3 legit-ish (since we never know who really did and didn’t) that entered the league since 1975!!
Can you imagine the carnage he would cause in Fenway park? He could be a legit 100 extra base hitter year in and year out. If he could be had for Benintedi, a 2nd or 3rd rotation arm and a prospect then you do that each and every day. Money should be the least of the Red Sox concerns. If he’s healthy then he should be an easy 30-35 hr/280/360 guy and those guys are getting $25-$30mil already. If he gets hurt and can’t play then the Sox have insurance and will recover most of it. But what’s the value of having a 40-60 a year homerun hitter in Boston for the next decade? Yeesh.
Because it’s a massive overpay for Boston if they trade away Beintendi, E-Rod and Devers all for Stanton while still paying for Stanton. There is no way the Red Sox do that.
You are not factoring in the contract. I would agree with most of what you say straight up but when you factor in contracts then it’s pretty even straight up between Benny and Stanton the trade proposals that are being bandied around are what Boston would pay if they had the same contracts. If that where the case then Benny, Erod plus a high level prospect would be about right. The future War would probably be higher with Benny and Erod alone but there would be the draw of the big home run hitter so there is value there. When you factor in the more then 30 million a year that Stanton is paid it’s a huge overpay.
Maybe if Miami really didn’t want to trade Stanton that would be true. Because really- how many teams out there could afford Stantons contract? And then how many of those teams would be willing to also give up more of a package of players than Benintendi and Rodriguez?
Wasn’t Benintendi the #1 prospect in baseball going into this season?
Benintendi, Erod, Devers would be such a gross overpay it would be asinine for Boston to even consider that. If Derek Jeter called DD and said that was the deal he would be laughed off the phone and all future calls blocked let’s be serious. You have to look at the contract that is attached to Stanton which will greatly reduce his value. A Beni, Erod, Devers trade would be maybe right if Stanton was on a team friendly low contract. Personally I still would not trade that much even id the contracts were the same.
They didn’t add a power bat because 1. they liked their speedy, doubles hitting team and 2. they wanted to stay beneath the luxury tax for one year, this year.
I would also stop assuming what it would take to acquire Stanton, let Dombrowski work on that. It has long been known that owner John Henry has a thing for Stanton, so I’m sure he’s asked Dave to kick the tires at the very least.
I agree with the #2 reason Willy, but the number 1 was that they thought they HAD power this year even without Ortiz.
Betts and Ramirez were both coming off 31 and 30 HR seasons. Bradley? 26 Hrs. Xander? 21. Moreland? 22. —- There was really no reason to think these guys couldn’t put up these kind of numbers again this year.
I would listen to Dombrowski and Farrell more. I listen to every interview. Dombrowski has said that even though he expected a little more power from these guys they aren’t way off from what they thought. Him and Farrell call this team a Doubles team with speed. They always knew that this was the year ownership wanted to get beneath the luxury tax so adding a big bat that fit was Never an option, not this year But all bets are off this winter. They could trade for Stanton or they could sign the best 1st baseman available, one or the other but they’ll definitely do something this winter.
I agree. They will do something, the options are numerous.
They’ve called this team a “doubles team with speed” after the season began Willy…. Again- if Betts/Ramirez/Bradley/Bogaerts/Moreland simply hit with the same power as they did last year…. needing to add power isn’t the necessity.
Oh, don’t get me wrong…I agree But I will add 1 more thing. Even if the team as a whole was performing up to expectations they’d still need 1 more guy(at least they did before Devers & Nunez came on board).
And a part of the reason why they aren’t completely performing up to expectations is because they don’t have that 1 big bat (Ortiz in this case) in the middle. That 1 big bat can mask so many things. I also think the loss of Lovullo (sp?) has affected some guys, like Mookie. He has even admitted that the loss of Ortiz (and I believe Lovullo too) has affected him. If a player is willing to admit that, then I think it’s very telling.
Almost every individual of the Sox has performed DOWN offensively, from the expectations going into this year. And yet they are still somehow in 1st place. Maybe David Ortiz is back as the hitting coach next year?
I’m all for the Sox making a run at Stanton – looks like he will be available in a trade this offseason. But the trade offer Carfardo was throwing out there is lunacy. Benintendi will be a 20/20 guy this year (as a ROOKIE). Erod has a knee issue, and is better than the numbers he’s thrown out this year. And a top prospect? AND take on a $295M contract? Is Stanton does get traded, I think many will be surprised how little it takes to get him…
Should have just traded for Jay Bruce instead.
When you factor in contracts the trade that Cafardo suggests is just not well thought out.
Stanton’s contract has to be figured in to any deal and greatly reduces his value. To trade Benintendi, Erod, and another prospect would be way too much. Benintendi and Erod alone will probably match the WAR of Stanton at a fraction of the price. It’s also pretty safe to assume that Benintendi is going to be really good.
I think the Red Sox would be interested Stanton but there is almost no way they trade Benintendi in that trade when you factor in salaries. I’m not real sure what would be a fair trade for Stanton with his current salary but Benintendi is too high a price to pay for sure.
And that is current WAR. If you consider improvement for both Sox players and the injury history of Stanton it just doesn’t make sense for the Sox.
Stanton’s contract averages out to $28 mil. Currently he’s a 5.9 WAR player.
The market that has been set already by guys like Cabrera, Pujols, etc but those contracts were signed when they guys were already 32 or 33. Stanton’s new contract kicks in next year at his age 28 season and he’s performing at an elite level.where the others were past or in their peak.
Sure you are correct but you are also ignoring that Benentendi and Erod very likely will outproduce Stanton straight up on WAR over the next few years at a fraction of the cost. When you factor in cost I don’t think Stanton is worth Benintendi straight up.
Can people stop relying on WAR please. A players individual worth to a singular team can’t be measured by WAR and WAR alone. The Red Sox need power in the worst way and if they think Stanton would be their best option to reclaim that power, add protection to a lineup that has none then that’s for them to decide. I personally don’t care for some of Stanton’s Splits but I’m not about to assume they would or wouldn’t go after him and it would or wouldn’t be justified. Dombrowski gets paid the big bucks to figure this out on his own.
Sox may need power in the worst way today…. but will they need it going into next season too?
Benintendi is a 20/20 guy in his rookie season. Devers gets to play all year next year- surely that’s an offensive upgrade from what the Sox 3Bs have done this year in whole. Others like Betts and Bogaerts are having down seasons… no reason to think their numbers won’t improve next year.
Of course every team could use a 50 HR hitter in the middle of their lineup… and I’m sure Dombrowski will kick the tires. But if getting him includes downgrading themselves at SP, and thinning out prospects they have, on top of handcuffing then from a future signing or two… the upgrade he gives from Benintendi just can’t make up for that IMO.
I’m sure they would go after him they just aren’t trading Benny to do it. If the Marlins wanted prospects that’s one thing and I’m sure the Red Sox would take on the contract and send some quality prospects if the Marlins are asking for Benny then it’s a no go period. Let’s put it this way would you trade Benny and Sale for Stanton because the Red Sox could extend Sale for the cost Stanton or very close to it.
Well the first thing people have to stop doing is assuming what it would take. All this take about Benintendi or Devers having to go in trade is dumbfounding. BOTH of those guys were untouchable before they hit the majors and I’m sure their still untouchable But regardless, Dombrowski knows what he’s doing, he doesn’t need our help.
That is something I totally agree with you DD knows what he is doing I trust DD to not not make a stupid trade.
I’ll b the only sox fan here to agree with Cafardo. I’ll do that trade as long as the marlins pay $100mm of Stanton’s contract. As much as I love Bennitendi, I want Stanton hitting 50-60 bombs in Fenway.
Sure. I think a lot of RS fans would be with you. No chance the Marlins would pay $100M with Stanton though…. unless maybe the Sox gave Devers + Betts with Benintendi.
That is hilarious Devers Betts and Benny you are insane that would get Trout.
You know Jet will not give talent to the Sox. You can forget that. I can see him trading with NYY, but not Beantown. His heart is STILL with the Yanks!
DJ would def do that trade with the Sox if they gave up Benitendi ERod and Devers. That would make the Sox worse considering Benintendi and Devers have been hitting homers off the Yanks all year. Stealing from the Sox would make everyone happy.
So the Marlins will never listen to an offer from the Red Sox while Jeter is part of the ownership. Wow, he’s going to be one of the worst owners in MLB.
Why would not trading with Boston make him a bad owner??He’s now got to be a business man too. I see no reason why he wouldn’t be available to work with all teams.
Don’t be ridiculous. No GM would turn down a team that would give them the best deal.
Yankees need to be patient with Ellsbury and wait until he has some consistent success. Trading Ellsbury now at a low point just isn’t worth it.
That would mean they’d have to play him regularly, and you can’t do that when he’s the 5th “best” OFer on the team.
This cafardo suggestion re benintendi AND e.rodriguez AND a pitching prospect for stanton is the type of garbage which should lead mlbtr to NEVER EVER EVVVVVVEEEERRRR link another story by the guy. Just such a moronic suggestion.
Yeah, that a “respected” baseball writer would opine such a ridiculous trade is crazy and demonstrates that he’s way out of touch with the reality of the modern game. Teams today hate those giant contracts and prioritize cheap controllable assets. Stanton’s deal would need to be ridiculously team -friendly to entice Boston to part with Benintendi and Rodriguez. Trading those players and (presumably) taking on that contract would be asinine, particularly when Boston could’ve had Stanton for the contract alone a month ago
False. NO one could have had Stanton for the contract alone, no one, ever.
Well, he supposedly cleared revocable waivers, and I have a hard time believing Miami wouldn’t have been tempted to let him go if someone claimed him on, say, August 2. At the very least, no MLB team was willing to take the risk
You are confusing waivers. Revocable TRADE waivers, not outright waivers, big difference. And most players are put on revocable trade waivers in August, it’s a formality. The Marlins would NEVER, ever outright release Stanton.
I’m not confusing the waivers, I know they could’ve revoked him, I just didn’t think they would, but maybe you’re right. I’m not in the Marlins front office, so that’s my bad on the assumption.
My main point was that Boston declined to put in a claim on Stanton, though, which would indicate that they weren’t willing to take on the deal at that time. They very well might be willing to this off-season, both because Stanton looks better now than he did a month ago and because they’ll have more time to figure out their budget. I just think it’s a major stretch to say that Boston would now be willing to take on his contract AND give up Benintendi, whom I’m more bullish on than you seem to be
I’m not sure how you came to that conclusion. I don’t believe I’ve said anything about or against Benintendi. I am the one person on here saying I wouldn’t Assume what it would take to acquire Stanton. And, I’ve also said why assume the Sox would trade Benny (or Devers) when they both have been protected in previous trades. At this time I would say both of those players are as close to untouchable as you can get, But I’m willing to let Dombrowski decide who would be best to move if he wants Stanton.
At this point in time, a team is not obtaining Stanton for the contract alone. Perhaps in many years after he begins to decline whenever that is….
At this point, probably not, but he cleared waivers a month ago. I wouldn’t be too sure that Miami wouldn’t have just let him go if someone claimed him.
At the very least, my main point was that it would be extremely strange for Boston not to claim him but to decide a month later that he’s actually worth his entire contract AND two of their best young players. Obviously his value has increased since, but enough to warrant Benintendi/Rodriguez, I think not
I also think it’s important to note the way that the market seems to be trending. At the time of his opt-out clause, he would be considering 6/$218M as a 30 year-old. If healthy, he’ll probably be producing at a similar level at that time to JD Martinez is now, and I don’t see JD coming anywhere that figure given what he was traded for and how teams seem to see bat – first corner types. Sure, there’s some inflationary stuff to take into account, but I’m not sure I would see him opting – out even if he’s healthy and performing
He isn’t a bat only guy. Also, it would be 7 years at that amount, so the AAV is a bit lower than you’re suggesting…also JD only went for that b/c he had a couple of months left on his deal, and he is also already older than Stanton, not that it has anything to do with anything here. I don’t see him getting more than $120 million
Appreciate the response man. I did mean “bat-first,” not “bat-only,” but because my point was regarding a potential opt – out, I’m projecting what Stanton would look like in 2020. He’s a decent defender now (above – average corner guy), but he’ll likely be below – average in a few years. I used JD because his age now is what Stanton will be at the time of the opt – out.
I think the $120M ceiling is about right for Martinez (my guess is he ends up with significantly less, actually), so I doubt Stanton could find anything like $218M in a few years (my bad on the number of years) that would make him opt – out
I personally don’t see Stanton declining defensively for several seasons…i think when he is healthy, he is a lock for .260-.270/.360/.560 and 35-40 HRs, at the minimum, and even bettee numbers if he were to be moved to a better atmosphere, with good defense in RF, moving forward. I think that we will see certain guys get a lot of money over the next couple of years, and by then, Stanton will definitely get more than the $218 million on the open market. But everyone is entitled to their opinion. I just don’t think this contract is nearly as bad as people consider it to be
Earlier in the season, I thought JD would definitely get that money, but now I would agree with you, especially with the fall off since the trade. I could see it being in the $75-95 million range, assuming he doesn’t take a short term deal
I do believe that he’ll produce at about that level offensively for a few years. I’m more aggressive projecting a defensive decline because defense peaks earlier, he’s a bigger guy (although supremely athletic, so maybe I’m seeking him short) and has a lower – body injury in his past.
I don’t mean to imply that the contract is any sort of disaster; I do think he could end up near there if he were a FA this winter. My biggest point was that it was reported that he cleared revocable waivers, so Boston (and every other team) designed it wasn’t something they were willing to take on right now. I highly doubt that one month, even one as ridiculous as he’s had, would make them believe that now, not only is Stanton worth that deal, but he’s ALSO worth five years of a top young outfielder having a great rookie season after being the top prospect in baseball
He is a really good athlete, and everything I’ve ever seen makes me confident that he won’t decline defensively for several years, as I said
I have to vehemently disagree with the notion that he could have been had for the contract alone. There are several reasons for that, but I’ll speak to your reasoning as to why you feel that was possible. The Red Sox didnt claim him b/c they would have to go into the luxury tax this season, and it’s known that they don’t plan on doing that again until next year. Also, with a contract of that size, and that many variables, they would need more time to assess how it would fit into their future structure. The Marlins would have definitely pulled him back if anyone claimed him, although I do agree they might have been willing to listen on offers first. Plenty of players have passed through waivers over the years
I just want to clarify again that I personally would not want to trade Benintendi. I just think that the Marlins would, and should, be first to say no to that deal mentioned…
I have a hard time believing teams would be willing to go too far beyond what the contract is at the moment. It is currently the largest contract in history. He’s more than earning it at the moment, but I think teams are increasingly skeptical nowadays of long – term deals and of position players in general. There’s no real comp for Stanton, so I’m just going on feel here, but my guess is what’s he’s at right now is about where teams would be willing to go, because he does have some risk with the injury stuff, even though that gets overblown some.
I know it’s not perfectly analogous to suggest that the contract is underwater because he went unclaimed in August, and I don’t really believe it is, but I’m not sure there’s a ton of surplus value there, and, from a pure baseball standpoint (obviously, the PR stuff complicates this), if I were Mike Hill, and Dombrowski said he’d trade me Benintendi/Rodriguez for Stanton, I’d jump on it in a heartbeat.
I’m also really high on Benintendi and think he’ll be a .300/.400/.500 guy in the future, though, and I’m sympathetic to the idea that Fenway hurts his defensive metrics, although it’s probably also true that he’s not as good a defender as most scouts thought he was on the way up
1 of the reasons i dont think they would is the Marlins already have Benintendi. His name is Christian Yelich…
I just think Bryce Harper and Machado, assuming he rebounds, will both exceed Stantons deal…in 3 years from now, assuming he stays healthy, I think he can get at least as much as the 7/$218 million, but I think that number will approach closer to $240 million. Not a crazy amount more, but still more. Again, assuming health, I think he is still capable of putting up 4-6 WAR for at least 5 of those years after the opt out passes. And that justifies it, in my opinion
On Benny’s Defense. Without looking at the stats and strictly by what I’ve seen out of him in Boston, when I went to see him several times in Portland, I would call him a average to slightly above average defender. Never thought his defense was remarkable in any way. It was always his bat that I was most impressed with/by.
I ask this question. Close your eyes. In the 6 years what do you think, being liberal, the best year of production you can envision Benindeti to post in terms of bat avg, OBP, OPS SB and defensive WAR?
Then measure that against what you think Stanton should safely do if he was a DH playing in Boston for his age 28-33 seasons? .280/.350 and 40 hrs?
If Chris Sale were a FA in 2018 and demanded a 10/$250 mil contract that took him into his age 38 season, would you do it?
I don’t understand why Stanton would have to DH. He is a really good defensive RFer
On the Red Sox he would Dh not a chance to crack that outfield. He isn’t a really good defensive RFer either he is slightly below average defensively.
Have you ever watched him play? Below average defensively? Rofl you’re just reaching. The way the Marlins use him out there too; He is one of the only players they shift b/c he can recover and make up that ground.
I have watched him play and defensively he isn’t even in the same league as the current Red Sox right fielder.
Obviously, he isn’t Mookie Betts defensively, but that doesn’t make him below average. Betts is one of the best defensive OFers in baseball, and he was good in CF before he moved to RF for Bradley.
Honestly, over the next 6 years will Stanton be equal to Benintendi by the numbers? No. Stanton will produce better numbers, at least on offense. But that’s not the real question people should ask. Personally I think if the Red Sox make serous overtures about Stanton then I think the question the Marlins ask is “what are you offering us besides Devers and Benintendi?”
Every trade come down to taking into account the actual price.
It’s not real hard to see Benintendi producing a higher WAR over the next 6 years then Stanton. Stanton is already declining on defense trading Benintendi alone would be stupid I’m sure DD the finances of the deal just fine. Benintendi at what he is making right now is more valuable then Stanton that’s just a fact. If the Marlins wanted Benintendi and Erod plus they would be told a stern no dont call back until you are willing to talk seriously. Benintendi isn’t even eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 cmon that is incredibly valuable.
Stanton is better defensively than Benintendi.
Ah no not a chance Benintendi is a natural centerfielder he is just adjusting to the left field wall which is why his metrics are a little weak.
He hasn’t been good in CF either…as I said earlier, I wouldn’t want to trade Benintendi, but let’s not put down Stanton to say that…also, another reason I say the Marlins would say no first is they already have Benintendi. His name is Christian Yelich
He hasn’t played much in center but defensively he grades as an average defensive center fielder. Listen Stanton is not the better defender then Benny end of story he is better offensively but 30 million better probably not so much.
I really don’t think the Sox would trade Benintendi for Stanton straight up. Because it wouldn’t just cost them Benintendi- it would also cost them from being able to extend either Betts or Sale too.
Fangraphs comes out with a good player-trade value piece every year… while of course it isn’t the be all end all – it explains player value to their teams. fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-1-to-10/
Trade Beni and Eddie AND pick up that contract?! Not a chance that happens. Everything I read here pertaining to Boston is garbage.
Why the continued use of Cafardo’s column as a story reference point on MLBTR? There are many columnists who are more well-respected than he is.
Not saying it will happen he is saying they should pursue Stanton. And why not. I certainly would make that trade for 60 home runs if im the Six. Nit sure the Marlins would
Am I the only Red Sox fan here that thinks everyone is super overvaluing E-rod?
He’s a cheap, average pitcher. Those guys are useful
I know. The Marlins would probably do almost anything for one of those, but some people are acting like he is a guaranteed mid-near TOR pitcher, which I don’t think he is. He is more of a good backend guy that can potentially be a mid-rotation guy
I can’t speak for other people on here, but I personally see Rodriguez as a passable mid – rotation guy who’s pretty cheap. Useful, but not any sort of star
You think he is currently a passable mid-rotation guy, or that he could be that? I don’t have an issue saying that I could see him being that at some point, but I don’t think he is that currently.
Projecting a bit based on the age and the stuff. He’s still a back – end guy right now, but I could see him being a 3.80 ERA type by next season, which is a mid – rotation guy to me, especially in the AL East
So it kind of sounds like we feel similarly about him. He has had some injury issues. If he stays healthy next year, I could see him doing that as soon as then. For me though, it’s not a given until it happens.
Here some other food for thought the Red Sox would also have to factor in losing Benny, Erod and a prospect but also losing 30 million of payroll. So what is more valuable to the Red Sox having Benny, Erod and whatever prospect they would have to add and an extra 30 million or so to spend for the next 3 year or having Stanton. It’s a no brained from the Red Sox perspective.
“brainer”
Nick Cafardo suggests that since the Sox are in dire need of power that they trade Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez, and an additional pitching prospect for Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton and his back-loaded $325 million contract. I have a counter-proposal to offer: the Boston Globe should trade Cafardo to the Miami Herald straight up for a manila folder of old Dave Barry columns. If we have to read something ridiculous, it should at least make us laugh.
That offer is a good starting point to open discussion with the Angels about Trout.
I agree with most of the Sox fans on here for if it’s a good or bad idea to trade for Stanton. It’s a terrible idea. He’s slugging homeruns, yes. But forget trying to replace Ortiz. It’s never going to happen. Stop trying to replace players and look for what you need. Boston has an outstanding and young outfield. Build on it. They need catching and middle relief. That’s it. The only good trade they’ve made this year is Eduardo Nunez and Reed. Stop letting fans decide the team and seriously build on your young built team.
>>They need catching and middle relief. That’s it. <>The only good trade they’ve made this year is Eduardo Nunez and Reed.<<
Huh? Chris Sale comes to mind and Addison Reed has been fine when used correctly.
I would trade for Stanton as long as the Marlins eat part of his contract!
Stanton shouldn’t be considered. Bob Horner was an outstanding player except he couldn’t stay healthy. Stanton is the modern day Bob Horner. Think of Troy Tulowitski, add some power and take away several games a year. You get Stanton. Also, his new stance has allowed him to have a temporary advantage over opposing pitchers but when they find his weakness with his new stance, he’s back to being a .240 hitter who plays 100 games a year. How much do you pay a guy for those kind of stats? Why would you even consider him? Because of what he’s done lately? Very short sighted.
I needed a power hitting outfielder a few years ago for my fantasy team. I traded a guy Bryant, Soler and Eloy for Stanton. Everyone thought I fleeced him. I told him in two years Bryant would be better than Stanton and in 5 years Eloy will be a star. Wish I could undue that trade!!! Stanton is like Judge, very impressive in their power, terrible batting averages that make it hard to keep them in the middle of your order and solid defensively. Benintendi or Stanton…. I’ll take Benintendi now, 3 years from now and 10 years from now!!!
I think his missed games are overblown, too easy of a thing to pick on. In the AL if he isn’t feeling 100% he could DH, limiting missed games. Not that I want him but let’s not make it sound like he’s a useless bum when he has the ability to hit 50HR’s and drive in over 100 Runs.