With about two-thirds of the season in the books, elements of the coming offseason player market are coming into focus. Before we know the full slate of players on the open market, though, teams will first have a chance to determine the fates of some veterans who can be controlled through contract options. We’ll assess those here. Note that we are only looking at situations where the team will make the call exclusively. So we are not looking at player options/opt-outs (as with the Tigers and Justin Upton) or mutual options (e.g., Adam Lind and the Nationals).
Here are the position players whose contracts include club options for 2018:
- Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros — $6MM option: Altuve is turning in an MVP-caliber campaign, making this perhaps the easiest offseason decision in the game. The bigger question here is whether Houston will look to try for an extension with Altuve controlled only through 2019.
- Alexi Amarista, INF, Rockies — $2.5MM option, $150K buyout: Amarista carries a 46 wRC+ on the year. While he offers defensive versatility, like most utility types, he continues to grade as a sub-replacement-level player. Odds are he’ll go back to the open market.
- Michael Brantley, OF, Indians — $11MM option, $1MM buyout: The 30-year-old isn’t playing to his prior standard and will perhaps always carry some health questions, but he has produced at a solidly above-average rate with the bat. This figures to be a fairly easy pick-up for Cleveland unless a new shoulder problem crops up over the coming months.
- Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Mets — $8.5MM option, $2MM buyout: Reports on the Mets’ intentions with regard to Cabrera have varied, and it seems an open question whether the team will commit the extra $6.5MM to keep Cabrera. The switch-hitter could provide options at second and third, while also giving the team an insurance policy at short, and he’s still hitting near the league-average rate. What really stands out when looking at his stat line, though, is his abysmal baserunning grade: by measure of Fangraphs’ BsR, Cabrera has detracted more value on the basepaths than any player in the league has contributed.
- Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers — $17.5MM option, $2.5MM buyout: While Ethier could still be ready to return late in the year after failing to suit up to this point, it’s tough to imagine a scenario where the Dodgers take on that salary.
- Tyler Flowers, C, Braves — $4MM option, $300K buyout: Even if you don’t believe the 31-year-old can keep up his prodigious efforts at the plate — he carries a .368 BABIP after checking in at .366 last year — he’s an easy choice to stay in Atlanta. There’s little chance the club could find a more appealing solution on the open market at this rate of pay.
- Logan Forsythe, 2B, Dodgers — $8.5MM option, $1MM buyout: When the Dodgers shipped out Jose De Leon to get Forsythe, the assumption was this contract would stay on the books. That’s no longer clear, as the veteran has posted a tepid .238/.365/.318 slash — somewhat oddly exhibiting a near-doubling of his career walk rate (to 16.0%) combined with a total collapse of power (.079 isolated slugging, three home runs).
- J.J. Hardy, SS, Orioles — $14MM option, $2MM buyout: Long an outstanding defender with an all-or-nothing approach at the plate, Hardy has seen his glovework grades slip even as his batting line has fallen to a career-worst .211/.248/.308 level. With a lengthy DL stint added to the mix, he’s clearly heading to free agency — though perhaps he can still boost his market standing if he can make it back and show more down the stretch.
- Ian Kinsler, 2B, Tigers — $10MM option, $5MM buyout: The bat hasn’t kept pace with its output from 2016, but Kinsler still earns excellent grades in the field. With only a $5MM gap between the option and the buyout, it’s all but certain he’ll be retained. What isn’t yet known is whether and where the Tigers will trade him.
- Jed Lowrie, 2B, Athletics — $6MM option, $1MM buyout: It remains surprising that Lowrie wasn’t dealt at the deadline, as he has turned in a quality all-around year. While he has fallen off a bit at the plate of late, he seems a useful piece and the 2018 salary is easily justified. Oakland could keep him to aid the transition to a younger roster, or clear him out to make way. A deal could come this August or at any point over the winter.
- Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates — $14.75MM option, $1MM buyout: Yeah, Cutch is back. The Bucs won’t face any questions about the option, but there’ll be plenty of speculation — once again — about a trade.
- Chris Stewart, C, Pirates — $1.5MM option, $250K buyout: The 35-year-old has rarely been all that productive offensively, but he has struggled worse than ever before in 2017. It’s a cheap contract, to be sure, but Pittsburgh will need to consider whether it’s better served finding another option to back up Francisco Cervelli.
Even with his struggles i still think its a no brainer the Dodgers pick up the option on Forsythe
Yup, on pace for a 2.5 win season despite the struggles/injuries
I would have to agree. Wouldn’t look too good if they gave up De Leon (already a rather questionable deal) and declined an inexpensive club option just a year later.
De Leon can’t stay healthy. Always felt the Dodgers were selling high on him
That was not a questionable move. Strike while the iron is hot. It’s not like de Leon is up ing the majors rocking it. He was (supposedly) ready last year.
He got hurt for a little
I almost think he’s gone with Chris Taylor at Second Bellinger, Puig and Joc in the outfield
I don’t think he’s gone at all. I honestly believe they are grooming Taylor to fill the “Zobrist roll” and as much as I love him I wonder how much regression you’ll see next year with his somewhat historic BABIP and his pretty elevated K rate. You’d hope he evolves into a Turner lite although I think their approaches and swings are going to provide different results. Which is perfectly fine as Taylor doesn’t necessarily need to provide the power Turner does. We know this FO values flexibility to the enth degree which is why Taylor bouncing from LF/CF/2b/ and the occasional SS makes tremendous sense. Forsythe also provides protection in case Taylor isn’t able to repeat his career year.
The reason they targeted Forsythe was his ability to play tremendous defense at both 2nd & 3rd which allows them to spell Turner without a significant drop in defense. They also targeted him for the simple fact that he crushes lefties.
What’s going to be interesting is to see if they are going to churn high on Grandal & or Puig. Yes it might sound crazy, but I don’t see either being a huge part of their future plans. Both are going to be in their walk years and they have ready replacements for both. That said if they did it’s probably for a chance to create their dream they haven’t been able to capitalize yet, their vaunted two headed absolute shut down defense.
To summarize though his option is so cheap and he absolutely provides more value than the money potentially saved.
Agree with all of this, but I am not so sure about him being a tremendous defender. He looks about average at his position by all existing measures, including the eyeballs. Still, not somebody to be thrown overboard easily.
Interesting point about Grandal. Personally I would not miss him much, with Barnes doing everything better at the moment, including defensively. Grandal has hammer hands frankly.
Well he rates as plus defender at both 2nd and 3rd. So I guess we’ll leave that up to personal preference. My eye test tells me that he does a lot of the small things defensively right especially when it comes to working around the shifts. And that there’s no comparison in terms of ability to turn dp when compared to Utley and the earlier Kendrick. But yes I can see your point as he’s botched a couple pretty routine balls.
That old adage that there’s no such thing as a bad one year contract rings true. Plus his AAV is relatively cheap at ~6M so his threshold hit isn’t significant at all. I just think both have a chance to be moved, simply because this FO is not at all afraid to churn.
*I meant 2nd closer in the first post.
I think you bring up valid ideas, however I think we should slow down on the replacements ready part. While the averages look similar at this point Grandal is still a better power stroke, had some big hr’s for us this year, and still a good to great pitch framer. Also we aren’t better with Barnes and Farmer? Than we are with Grandal and Barnes. (Question mark because I’m assuming that’s who our back up becomes) As far as Puig and Verdugo go, I actually think we’re looking at it wrong, imagine Verdugo in left, Joc in center and Puig in right. That combo looks like a strong defensive group for years to come. Verdugo finally becomes our lead off/LF bat we’ve been wanting for years and Puig has steadily improved his defense the last two years to where now many people consider it elite. After this season we drop the Crawford and Eithier contracts, probably sign Utley again is my bet, and Gonzalez probably becomes a bench guy. Now the way we rotate things in he plays three or four times a week but he’s no longer my pick for first base, but Bellinger and his ability to move around allows him to play multiple positions. Forsythe stays because Chris Taylor should regress some and is bet a better season out of Forsythe. Either way I think we have a problem other teams dream of with Toles coming back.
Here’s the thing. I’m not really looking at it through my eyes I’m looking at through what the FO is possibly going to consider. Barnes is a premier framer also. He’s more athletic and quite frankly a better defender. I don’t care about BA to be honest. So are they better well you can easily make an argument that they are better without Grandal. For C he has a substantial WRC+. And he shown an ability to handle both RHP and LHP. SSS yes I know, but he would also start on a lot of teams. On the Puig front I absolutely love Puig and think he’s getting it. I just liken it to a Mondesi situation career year ability to move him high.
What I was getting at is Grandal/and or Puig aren’t going to be traded for just a bag of potato chips they’d be moved in a package to obtain a substantial upgrade. That upgrade will most likely occur in the pen. So side to side they might drop in comparable numbers, but adding to strengthen another part of the team to me leads me to believe they could be a better team. Let’s be honest with ourselves they aren’t going to be resigned and this FO loves to churn. They are trying to get under the threshold and if they can win a WS then the pressure is off and it leads me more to my belief the transition of youth will continue in a big way. Gonzo isn’t an everyday guy at this point, but their versatility will allow for a RH platoon option to play in LF against LHP. The beauty of this team is they are so versatile. You’ll also be able to step back and give Toles more the development time he missed which in all honesty is crucial.
To end balancing of the lineup is also crucial and I don’t think Verdugo is your shoe in at lead off hitter to be honest and he shouldn’t be expected to be. What we’ve seen from Taylor has been speed, pop, and a better ability to drivee the ball. He’s thrived in that leadoff spot, and I think that his to lose. I’d also be weary of the overall offensive value of Verdugo as his substantial spikes in OPS have come in highly offensive friendly environments. So I’m not honestly sure Verdugo fits their version of leadoff guy at this point or somewhere down the line. What I do know in adding another elite bat to ball skill is nothing to scoff at. I’d also be extremely weary of expecting Verdugo to provide a major impact or “become the third incarnation of back to back to back Rookie of the year award winners.” But all that’s getting off of topic in a sense. To me picking up Forsythe’s option at ~6M is a no brainer.
*AAV
Worst case scenario, they pay his contract down a bunch and move him, but I don’t think it will come to that. Except for his power numbers, his output isn’t that far below his career. He also has defensive value.
Offer Cutch a 4 year deal worth $60-72 million in lieu of his option.
Trade Stewart for a broken bat and bring Elias Diaz up full time.
Trade Cutch this offseason unless he’s willing to accept a 4 year deal for 50-60 million, which he shouldn’t. Putting personal emotion aside, that 10-12 million, roughly 1/10 or more of the team’s total payroll, a year could get the Pirates a starting third baseman who can play everyday (Freese can’t and Kang probably isn’t getting back in the USA) and a bullpen arm, which in conjunction with the return of prospects from a Cutch trade while his bat is hot, helps the team more than Cutch’s bat for the foreseeable future.
Which everyday third baseman and reliever would $10m-$12m get you?
Forsythe and a pre or first year arb reliever? If the Dodgers lean toward declining the option just offer them a prospect or two in the 20-30 range and a PTBNL and they’d be stupid not to take it. With the remaining cash you could chase a veteran reliever who’s only looking at like 3 or 4 mil on a one year deal, or trade for a pre arb guy.
I’d save $6 million somewhere else (Daniel Hudson, for example) instead of getting rid of the best player on the team. He’s literally played the best baseball of his career the past few months.
And between the small amount of club control left and the diminished market for position players, the window to trade Cutch for any kind of impact return is gone. His greatest value to the team at this point is in the #3 hole and on the billboards selling tickets.
Kinsler’s my favorite one. Savage!
$5M buyout on $10M team option. Therefore, it’s not really a $10M option, but effectively a $5M option.
Rare to see buyouts take up 50% of the team option but Kinsler’s buyout takes up at least 50% of the team option it’s buying out.
Has there been another contract like this in MLB history?
Ryan Howard’s is close. The Phillies bought out his $23MM option this year for $10MM. Not quite 50%, but getting close.
Cliff lee also recieved $12.5MM buyout instead of having his $27MM club option exercised so there’s history with the Phillies.
% wise though, Howard’s may have been closest, you’re right! How quickly we forget.
The buyout of Matt Cain’s option next year is 7.5 million or they pay him 21 million.
Matt Cain’s $7.5MM buyout is 35% of Cain’s full Team option ($21MM) It seems high, but not highest % allocation the buyout takes out of exercised option. I don’t think anybody has/will ever beat Ian Kinsler’s agents negotiating a buyout that is 50% of the entire team option!
Talking about the buyout of any option (team, vesting, player, even crazy vesting player options like Holland’s) having a buyout that costs 50% or more of the full option.
In all your time covering MLBTR, Jeff, have you seen it happen? Please Share your knowledge! This subject is very esoterich, and I really want to know : )
This subject is very esoteric*
Yeah the Phillies’ buyouts are what come to mind for me in sheer volume. But I can’t recall another with this relative magnitude. It really is an interesting amount, and it does seem designed to make the option easy to exercise. In the cases of Lee and Howard, I think the buyout was in large part a mechanism to defer salary.
Thanks for taking time to read and reply and I really appreciate all that you do.
I thought the same thing after jtmorg courteously pointed out Howard’s buyout but I was curious to see your opinion on the matter because I’m sure you’ve seen your share of odd things covering this game. Thanks again!
Sure thing. There may well be another such example but I just can’t think of one. Maybe a player with a low option price has had a relatively large buyout that isn’t coming to mind?
Well there’s the Bobby Bonilla deal, but that was a buyout of a guaranteed year I think. That’s a whole other crazy story. You guys should actually do a piece on that. Didn’t Johan Santana have a big buyout?
Theoretically yes, but I would think low option price would have a low buyout price, or even no buyout. I tried thinking outside the box this way but couldnt come up with anything.
Only no buyout example that comes to mind is the case of Brian McCann’s vesting club player option or whatever it’s called (last year of his deal) so it’s easier to come up with example of no buyout than a buyout of this magnitude.
Nice memory ConnorSoxfan! Forgot about Johan Santana. It’s not everyday you have a $25M Club option.
With such a large team option, you’d expect a large buyout, but Mets paid a measly $5.5MM buyout so not even close in terms of “buyout making up half of the option it’s buying out”
I don’t think Kinsler, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard’s buyout magnitude ‘records’ will be broken.
Yeah I knew Santana had a big option but I couldn’t remember if it had a huge buyout with it, I guess not. That Bonilla contract is a great story though.
For all those that claim the lil ninja is good.
The dodgers should let either walk this year, he can’t stay healthy, there’s no use of him in he outfield.
I don’t know any Brave fan who wants to get rid of Flowers, especially for the low cost he comes with and the offense he provides. He and kurt suzuki have provided a nice pop to the lineup this year.
Your Coors Field bias is ridiculous. Amarista is slugging 127 point HIGHER on the road. Both of his HRs have been on the road. His BA is 68 points HIGHER on the road. His OPS is 219 points HIGHER on the road. Do a little research before you make your biased statements please.
You definitely don’t know what biased means. And they’re we’re talking over the course of three seasons. Two bad ones in San Diego where 81 games are played in petco, where now he gets 81 in coors
Bias: prejudice in favor of or against one thing, person, or group compared with another, usually in a way considered to be unfair.
The writer doesn’t bring up any other field stats for any other player, so he’s making an unfair (and wrong) comparison.
For his career, Amarista has a Home plus in his stats. +27 BA, +32 OBP, +39 OPS, but all of those are a big minus this year. How can Coors play a big factor in his batting if he hit better at Petco than Coors?
Ok, well the counterpoint is that he’s currently hitting .210/.222/.290 in Coors Field, which is freaking abysmal. It is true that Amarista hasn’t benefited from Coors as the article implies, but that seems to merely indicate that he can’t hit at all, even in the most hitter-friendly environment in MLB.
He would still benefit. In theory, an equivalent set of plate appearances at a neutral park would’ve resulted in a .180/.190/.250 line (or whatever).
I don’t think you understand how this works. It actually doesn’t really matter whether the player thrived at home or on the road — the Coors boost still (theoretically) boosts even poor numbers at home. Were it not for Coors, in other words, a given player would have even worse numbers than they do already — thus further dragging down their overall numbers.
Of course, sample size ought to be factored in. I didn’t really look closely at it (but will do so now). So perhaps you can accuse me of being a bit lazy or careless, but I’m not biased. There is no bias against Coors Field — that’s silly.
EDIT: to note that I have edited it. The sample is probably too small for Coors or otherwise to really tell us much. Either way, he has not been good offensively.
I would never argue he was having a good year, or that his option should be picked up. My issue was using a “Coors Field Effect” as a standard.
I appreciate you editing that out, and making a correction.
It seems like Hitters are looked down on for batting at Coors Field, and Pitchers are never credited for being in the same park.
*Note* I do not live in Denver. I am in Cleveland. I just think everyone should be on level ground. Chase Field, Fenway, and Yankees Stadium all are very hitter friendly parks, but nobody says Goldschmidt, Judge, or Betts stats are inflated by their parks.
I always try to account for the effects of Coors, for pitchers or hitters, because it’s just a totally different run-scoring environment. I think many people discuss it in a silly way — this guy or that is a “product of Coors,” or whatever — but it does need to be considered in assessing players.
They were’
Who cares if he is being “biased” it’s Alexi Amarista. He should be lucky to be mentioned in any baseball article. He is straight garbage.
Great article, but I just wanted to point something out. Michael Brantley is absolutely playing to his prior standard, and his power has come back lately as well. It definitely looks like he’s fully healthy.
Watching Forsythe at the plate is maddening…the number of center/center fastballs he doesn’t swing at is incredible and this has to be affecting his power rate. I’m not a numbers guy but there has to be a stat on this
Altuve has got to be the best bargain in baseball… I would bet he could get over 20 million per year, maybe more considering the Dodgers would be all over him…He might even get a 10 year contract considering his age..