The Tigers do not anticipate finding a match for staff ace Justin Verlander before the end of the month, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Indeed, the team sees a swap as being “highly unlikely,” per the report.
Though there were suggestions yesterday that there may be some renewed interest in the veteran righty, all signs now seemingly point away from a trade. Verlander is on the bump for Detroit today, it’s also worth noting.
Verlander, 34, has already cleared revocable trade waivers, meaning that he can be dealt freely. But he does have full no-trade protection as well as a hefty $56MM guarantee over the next two seasons. With Detroit evidently holding out for a worthwhile prospect return for its longtime star, talks do not appear to have developed.
That said, there is good cause for the ongoing attention to Verlander’s situation. He has indicated he would consider a deal to a contender. And he has also begun pitching again like the player who nearly won the AL Cy Young Award just last year. Numerous clubs are surely at least intrigued at the prospect of adding Verlander, who has been durable and effective for quite some time.
Even if nothing gets done before tomorrow’s deadline — after which newly acquired players cannot be utilized on a postseason roster — the trade talks held this summer will likely set the stage for further chatter in the fall. While the Tigers understandably are hesitant to part with such an integral player for less than a compelling slate of young talent, the club has already taken major steps toward a rebuild amidst another disappointing season on the field.
ray_derek
Heyman will come up with a scenario that gets him traded
dugdog83
I’m sick of this story. Crap or get off the pot.
glassml
Fish or cut bait.
vtadave
So basically he’s getting traded.
Boof
You called it!
dimitriinla
I could see the Orioles making a push as they seem like logical suitors. (Obviously a team with a league-wide reputation for being a great thing to be a part of; but whether the team meets Verlander’s wishes or not, who knows?
Joe Kerr
That’s not the Orioles I know, they are always bargain shoppers minus that ridiculous contract they gave Chris Davis.
jdgoat
And mark trumbo.
jdgoat
What’s this reputation?
dimitriinla
Reputation of Baltimore is that it is a terrific place to play ball: well-managed and coached team; clubhouse gets along and functions well; great ballpark and passionate fans.
gomerhodge71
Translation: Tigers finally realize nobody’s going to give up top prospects and eat Verlander’s ginormous contract.
donniebaseball
Avila publicly stated he would eat money on the deal to increase the return.
mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/justin-verlander-trade-…
tim815
Meaning six million or twenty million?
Steve Adams
That’s not a public statement from Avila in any way, for what it’s worth. If you read that post, it’s Jon Morosi reporting that anonymous sources told him the Tigers would include “some” money.
donniebaseball
You’re right. Sorry, that link that I included didn’t have the link to Avila publicly stating that. I should have looked at it closer. However, there have been several interviews where Avila did say he would be willing to eat money to increase the return.
“If the right deal were there, yes, we would definitely consider paying down the contract in exchange for prospects,” Avila said. “But we had not gotten to that point. It’s very difficult for a club, even if we were to pay down the contract, to add any significant amount of dollars at this time of the year.”
-Avila on August 1st, right after the trade deadline.
detroit.cbslocal.com/2017/08/01/avila-why-tigers-c…
donniebaseball
Thanks for your reply/comment. Always appreciate how much care you guys into this site.
detroitdave84
I have heard mystery teams are Yankees Boston Nationals, obviously Houston desperately needs him so they might be playing cat/mouse to see if Tigers demands come down. Houston will look foolish and wasted a great team to win it all. If they stand pat and lose, they will get roasted for conceding to the Dodgers. Sad…..
newagescamartist
I think Houston is dealing with other issues right now. Many of the players are worried about their families. Baseball is certainly taking a backseat right now. What happened in Houston could sink a team’s morale. I certainly doubt they’re worried about Verlander.
mace27
“…sink a team’s morale.”
rememberthecoop
Verlander would make sense for the Cubs. They are losing Arrieta & Lackey after the season and while V is pricey, they would only be committed for 2 more years. I think Theo prefers shorter term vs expenditure per season.
donniebaseball
It would have to happen during the offseason if the cubs traded for him because they would have to pass any of their players through waivers in order to get a deal done.
cubsfan2489
Pretty sure they’d only have to pass players who are on the 40 man. Could be wrong. WCR would probably know. But I’m certain that’s how it works.
Mattimeo09
But the only way the Cubs are getting Verlander is if they trade some players from their 40 man.
Not too much value below that. Certainly not enough to get Verlander
donniebaseball
6 IP, 3H, 1ER, and 9K’s in today’s start in Colorado. ERA now down to 3.81 for the season, and a 2.41 ERA this second half.
His velocity is at the highest average since his MVP season, and he’s hit 101ph this year (mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2017/08/05/168708…)
brewpackbuckbadg
Does anyone think the mystery team was the Mariners. They were trying to get Verlander, but Detroit would not budge, so they settled for cheaper (in terms of per year cost) and crappier Leake instead,
Ejoey
Why is it that everyone wants to not believe what Verlander is doing now. His speed and stats this year and last year are very consistent. His fastball is as fast as it was in 2010 2011. Why would a team going for the playoffs the World Series not want to add him to their squad, realizing that money and prospects are in the equation. I still feel that if a team honestly wants to win now and maybe the two-year window they will make the trade for him by tomorrow
tim815
How much is being asked in exchange?
It’s a game of chicken. Detroit isn’t benefited much by retaining him. They are benefited by trading him to their needs.
Contracts against the spending limits are more important than they were three years ago, under the new CBA.
Ejoey
With the Tigers paying somewhere near 15 or 20 million I think they need Tucker or Whitley one of them along with maybe one or two other prospects
tim815
And the waltz continues.
Many of the teams involved don’t want to add salary in 2018. A team willing to, ought to get a good deal.
bobbleheadguru
I just got my season ticket retention letter from the Tigers. Key points:
1. They are going to spend money… but it will be on Analytics and Scouting.
2. This IS a new era.
3. They will give Season Ticket Holders perks to offset the on field performance.
Go all in and trade JV or find a way to QUICKLY rebuild with him. But have sound strategy. The letter makes me think they SHOULD trade JV.
donniebaseball
Honestly, that’s music to my ears. Glad to hear the Tigers are being so transparent to their loyal fans.
bballblk
To the surprise of no one…
mike156
Leake had about $55M left, including this year, and St. Louis paid down about $17M (about $12M per year going forward). They also gave slot money and got in return an eh prospect.
$12M for slightly better than replacement level pitcher with a ceiling of maybe about 3.WAR.
Verlander is a crapshoot. His 2014 and 2015 seasons look somewhat like Mike Leake seasons (except for Ks). His 2016 season was terrific, his 2017 fairly good. He’s got about $60M left over 2+ years. Given that Leake was basically given away and was going for $12M per year (after pay down) what’s Verlander worth? I don;t see how you get $60M plus serious talent. But, it’s not impossible someone pays it.
donniebaseball
Leake and Verlander are not even close to the same pitcher.
Leake has had an 8.00 ERA in the last two months. Verlander has a 3.41 ERA in the second half. Verlander has had the highest average velocity since his MVP season (fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=8700&posi…). Leake is at a career low average velocity (fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=10130&pos…)
Verlander has $56 left on his deal, and Avila has said publicly he would eat money on a veteran’s deal if it increased the return. Eating $8 million a year is easily doable.
mike156
Didn’t say they were. I was trying to calculate values–how much more would you be willing to pay for Verlander, given his salary and (perhaps) his age/performance. It was a hypothetical.
donniebaseball
Thanks for the explanation. I didn’t see the connection of your logic the first couple of times reading your comment.
I still think its hard to derive Verlander’s value using Leake as a base, but I think I see what you were trying to do.
donniebaseball
As for 2014, Verlander was pitching injured, and had muscle core surgery at the end of the year. It takes time to rehab your body back from that surgery, and players tend to start slow the following year as a result (which explains the first half of 2015- as the second half he was in CY Young form)
tim815
Don’t confuse people with how bodies work. All that matters is WAR and FIP
mike156
Not disagreeing and if he were a bit younger I might not have asked the same question.
BlakeBanks79
Lmao ur comparing leake to JV?
brewpackbuckbadg
Neglecting salary, but including age and obviously performance who is the better pitcher JV or Jose Quintana. I am trying to gauge value for a tigers brewers swap.
JV and 20 or 25 million (depends if option vests) for Matt Garza ( potential $5 million salary next year) and what prospects. What prospects would Detroit want? I don’t think it will happen but just having fun.
terry g
I don’t honestly see JV being traded in the next day and half. I think he’ll probably get traded this winter. My guess is that either the Cubs or the Astros go after him if they don’t get to the World series.
BlakeBanks79
Id say ur right about the Cubs. Epstein isnt scared to deal prospects unlike luhnow
tim815
Depends on the cash and the prospects needed.
BlakeBanks79
@tim815 i was jus thinking offseason as well cuz with cubs farm looking pretty thin, they would have to throw in someone like schwarber n a prospect. Id doubt schwarber would clear waivers. Did jus read article about last trade between cubs/tigers the Candelerio headlined the trade but guess Isaac Paredes is the one turning heads!! Off topic but thought that was interesting
stymeedone
Cubs have no prospects left to trade. Just don’t see the match. Schwarber’s performance has hurt his value, and I just don’t see a DH candidate headlining.
astros_fan_84
The Astros are in a funk. I don’t JV fixes the problems. Best option for Houston is ride it out and let the players we have figure it out.
Ejoey
They are in a funk ever since management refused to help team at deadline. JV will help on the field and in dugout. This team needs leadership. Take advantage of the team now and don’t be happy just to be close!
SundownDevil
Justin Verlander-Upton isn’t going anywhere until the offseason, when he and Kate will approve a trade to the Dodgers since they just bought a mansion in Beverly Hills.
hk27
Hypothetically, JV to LAA could work. Angels desperately need quality pitching over this season and next couple of years and have some money coming off the payroll. Tigers need OF’s. Angels now have a couple of high quality OF prospects–Jones and Marsh. They should be ready around 2020 and if Tigers go on full rebuild, they’d make sensible trade pieces. Heck, even the geography fits, given Kate Upton. As a pure hypothetical, I could see LAA dealing Jones or Marsh with another good prospect, say RHP Jaime Barria, for JV. That will wipe out most of gains LAA farm system has made last couple of years, but it seems rather reasonable idea. (again, all is pure fan speculation.)
clyde hughey
Shame on the Astros for letting J.V. go. They’re deep with their prospects. Don’t they realize they won’t get a player that’ll help WIN A WORLD SERIES for next to nothing?? They need to pony up with 1 or 2 “can’t miss” prospects, with the Tigers agreeing to pay significant money.
strostro
2 days later…. He gone