Angels outfielder Justin Upton — if that sounds odd, you might want to click this link — faces an interesting decision after the end of the season. He already has the right to $88.5MM in guaranteed salary for the next four seasons, but can choose instead to opt out of the contract and take his talents onto the open market once again.
Entering the season, the latter course seemed less than likely. After all, Upton managed only a .246/.310/.465 batting line in 2016, his worst-ever full-season batting line. Though he did swat 31 home runs, matching a personal best, Upton was at or near career-worst levels in strikeouts (28.6%) and walks (8.0%). As the second consecutive year in which his output with the bat had declined, there was cause for some concern.
Needless to say, though, Upton has turned things around thus far in 2017. He’s currently slashing .279/.362/.542 and has already knocked 28 balls out of the yard through 520 trips to the plate. Though his strikeouts haven’t dipped, he’s now walking at an 11.0% clip that’s better than his career average, all while sporting a personal-high 44.1% hard-hit rate. And Upton has rated as a quality performer with the glove out in left field.
That’s not where Upton’s case for opting out ends, however. While he is now in his 11th season in the majors — which seems hard to believe — the slugger only just turned 30 a few days ago. And since he has previously received a qualifying offer (and also now has been traded mid-season), he won’t be eligible to receive a QO — meaning there’s no risk of his market being dragged down by draft compensation.
There are plenty of comps that suggest Upton could well out-earn what he already has in hand. On the high side, we have seen several somewhat older outfielders take down nine-figure guarantees: Yoenis Cespedes (four years, $110MM entering age-31 season), Shin-Soo Choo (seven years, $130MM entering age-31 season), and Josh Hamilton (five years, $125MM entering age-32 season) all come to mind. On the lower side, there’s plenty of reason to think that Upton can beat Dexter Fowler’s five-year, $82.5MM deal or the $88MM over four years that Hanley Ramirez received. Of course, Upton himself secured a $132.75MM guarantee before the 2016 season; though he was two years younger, he also was coming off of a less-impressive campaign.
That said, there’s no denying that there’s risk in casting himself back into free agency. Upton may not find it worth his while if he and his agents do not anticipate offers that are all that much more significant. It’s somewhat difficult to forecast the market for power hitters given the recent surge in offense (and home runs, in particular). Last year, several big bats came in somewhat under expectations; this fall, there’ll be competition (especially former teammate J.D. Martinez, but also potentially including older players and possible trade targets).
There’s another month left on the year, and that could matter, too. Upton will have to stay healthy and remain at least mostly productive to have the best potential free-agent case. He might also conceivably just end up deciding he feels comfortable in his new digs. But it’s a good time for a prediction: do you think Upton will opt out? (Link for app users.)
Would be nice if he stood, but realistically he’s opting out. I can see him in a mariners or astros jerseys.
Ugh, try Dodgers!
“Angels outfielder Justin Upton” sounds odd even knowing he’s been traded.
I hope he stays with the angels anyone think he will though?
I could see the Angels giving him an extension to get the money to where he wants it. To entice him to stay.
What reason does Upton have to agree to that? He’ll get more money if he is fielding offers from all 30 teams than if he limits the market to just one.
Get more money from a team that has no chance to win. The Giants are the only team that will have the money and needing an outfielder. Giving a chance to win. Almost all the teams that will be good next season, won’t be needing an outfielder. And he has blocked trades to Seattle. So he doesn’t want to go there.
If that is the case he’ll just re-sign with the Angels for more money than his current contract. No reason for any player to take an extension this close to free agency. Anything the Angels offer him now will still be there in the offseason and some other team MIGHT offer him more.
He also takes the risk of losing out and getting less money. Look what happened to Encarnacion. Toronto offered him more money. Thinking teams would line up for him. And to take less money from Cleveland.
If the Angels offer him more now that offer will still be there in the offseason. Not that much can change based on one month of play.
Nope … the Dodgers.
Where would the Dodgers play him? No one wants Puig. The Dodgers already have to many outfielders and no place for them to play.
Puig was claimed on waivers last year and has improved his play since. Yeah, sounds like no one wants him lol.
Teams will take Puig as long as they don’t have to give up much for him. He has all the talent in the world. But can’t get along with teammates.
I hope he stays an angel anyone think he will.
Wouldn’t rule it out. Hitting next to trout would be pretty fun for an all star hitter
Im sure he will opt out. Cespedes got a 4yr/110mill last yr n was yr older then Upton now. So he could command something similar if not more. Im a Tiger fan but i was hoping Angels could somehow trade for verlander also! Was praying the twins n angels get last 2 spots n kick yankees out of it lol
Nope!
He seems pretty happy to be there, his twitter page is all Angels already lol
An article analyzing Justin Upton’s tough opt out decision was Looong overdue. Love the comps Jeff!
My gut says he opts out but I can see both sides to the argument.
Who opts out of playing with Trout? He’s got his $$ why not try and win with the best?
Because the rest of the team is nothing special.
You know who andrelton simmons is? Pretty good
Add back Heaney, Richards, Skaggs, Tropeano, and Shoemaker and the Angels are very impressive. All of which I just named has missed all year or most of the year. Add Upton and Phillips now to hit with Trout and Simmons, That’s a solid club. plus you have Kole Calhoun who will for sure be better in 2018 as well as CJ Cron a potential 30 HR hitter for 2018 and Albert Pujols.
Depends on the market
He probably will, but part of me finds it tough to picture a team giving him more than 4/88
If Cespedes, Hamilton, and Choo are the comps, that gives more of a reason why less teams may top it since so far none of those look too great.
Yup. Justin is the BOMB.
Wouldn’t surprise me if he opts out. But seeing how some teams are getting smarter and there are few $100 million contracts for position players, I think he stays put. Some team would basically have to give him $25 million per year for four years. Normally there is a chance someone would overpay him and give him $30m per over 5yr, but i’m thinking the teams who would normally be inclined to do that are waiting for that 2018 class.
I think he stays–and maybe works out a one year extension. The comps cited should make front offices be very hesitant. Hamilton, of course was a catastrophe that should have been predicted. But Choo is in his 4th year and has amassed 8.3bWAR for Texas over those 4 years–not terrible, but he has 3 years and 62M left. Ellsbury wasn’t listed as a comp, but he has 8.6bWAR over his 4 years, with $63.6M left. Cespdes is terrific when on the field, but… At some point the market has to correct, and Upton’s risk will be it could correct with him.
Nope. Upton isn’t taking any extension. If the Angels are willing to offer him more money then that means other teams will be as well and he’ll opt out.
He can certainly opt out. My point was that sooner or later someone will opt out and make less than he expected. Maybe it’s not Upton. But I don’t see him getting the 6-7 year deal that Choo got.
Doesn’t have to get Choo’s deal for opting out to be worth it. My point is if Upton not opting out is that important to the Angels that they are willing to pay him not to then it’s probably reasonable to expect Upton to get more in free agency than his current contract.
Players who become FAs by opting out of a long term deal are subject to the QO? That seems so odd…
Not if they are traded midseason or already received a QO, both of which apply to JUp.
Yes, but Upton isn’t eligible, regardless of his being traded, because he’s already received a QO in the past, which it seems the writers on here have a tendency to forget 😛
They’ve reported it many times. The commenters are the ones who overlook that little fact.
The new rule slips in and out of my consciousness, it’s true.
Hell goo to the Yankees
Not likely. The Yankees already have 4 outfielders.
Why sign Harper for $400MM when you can have J. Upton for $88.5M ?
I am being sarcastic 😉
It really depends. If he likes it in so cal, which a lot of athletes do because it’s a beautiful place to live, I can’t see him opting out because like the market has shown, you never know these days and it’s a gamble for his next contract. I have a feeling he will fit right in, play well, and want to stay once he sees what the angels and Orange County are all about
Pollution,crime,lame politics,water rationing,and those fun quakes…yea it’s eden..
@Cereal, I’m a Yankee fan too and your post disgusts me. Let’s compare both
Pollution: Cal vs NY.. Wash?
Crime- (Bronx) vs. ‘So Cal’. Wash?
‘lame politics’- both liberal as **** (If you were referring to that meaning of politics)
You could’ve been referring to dynamics of running the team (Arte overruled his GM to shell almost half a billion dollars to sign the bad contracts of Pujols and Hamilton (Arte’s considered a meddling owner, but at least willing to spend)
Cereal, these posts make Yankee fans look bad (because everyone knows you are a Yankee fan) but I know you are a troll
First off you’ve proven yourself in the past to be anything but a Yankee fan.
Your the troll here pal..considering this post.
How about giving halos the opportunity to field that.
Your other dribble means squat..bringing up NY or Wash,what’s that about?
“How about giving halos the opportunity to field that.”
By “that” I assuming your troll post. Cereal, why would I give Angel fans a chance to defend themselves against your attack, when I am perfectly capable standing up for them, against trolls like you, even if it’s against another so called “Yankee fan” who honestly contributes nothing but give the rest of us a bad name.. that was a very divisive, toxic comment that you made.
CONTEXT is everything. (Let’s begin!)
An Angels fan says he hopes Upton likes it in LA, and he has feeling he will stay because of the beautiful city.
In comes Cereal and he trashes that Angels fan city by saying Crime, pollution, politics, quake rationing..wtf? and ‘lame politics’ (thanks for specifying what u meant by ‘lame politics’, btw!
You’re the troll cereal! Leave the Angels (and other fanbases) alone. I probably wouldn’t have bothered to respond, but you’re a Yankee fan and that reflects on all of us.. (because pple just loove to generalize..) I just want other posters here to know Not all Yankee fans TROLLS, like you.
“First off you’ve proven yourself in the past to be anything but a Yankee fan.”
Rather than say “show proof” for that ridiculous statement, I’m going to say I’ve proven to be the antithesis of that statement. I’d even bet others would vouch for me.
Nice try though!
I don’t ask for much. Just Stop trolling 😉
“I bet others would vouch for me” The first step is admitting something.
“When I am perfectly capable of sticking up for them” nobody certainly not me cares about the BS self righteousness.
The original post I made was sarcasm toward Halos and he simply answered to it by posting “people love living in socal,stop trying…
You sir started this by trolling my post..try staying out of things rather then feeling good by patting thyself on the back.
You claim to be a Yankees fan..whatever pal.
Grow up and stop using wink emojis it’s creepy.
“You claim to be a Yankees fan..whatever pal.
Grow up and stop using wink emojis it’s creepy.”
Wink emojis are there for a reason. As for the smiley emojis. Wanna know why I use them? To diffuse tense situations. It means “Peace”
Glad you take it as “creep” though. Wink emoji means I MUST be hitting on you! (Sarcasm 😉 ) Grow up dude, From your reading comprehension skills, I assume you’re 12..
people love living in socal, stop trying
I think the Angels are in a win =win situation here, they try and make the playoffs with Upton and then he opts out.and they don’t have to pay him. Briliant!
I think Angels will offer him $90-92 million over 4 years before free agency starts and he stays.
The market for corner bats has changed since he signed his Tigers deal. I don’t think it’s a given he’ll get more, but the Angels could secure their investment for just a bit more money and he can feel he got something for his opt-out clause.
NO HE WILL NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If the Angels are willing to do that now they’ll still be willing to do it in the offseason and some other team might offer him more. There is no way Upton gets less money in free agency than he would if he limits the market to just one team. Completely ridiculous that you would even THINK to suggest that.
Oh yeah. Will add that.
Simply not true. Look at the last off-season and see how things went for Encarnacion and Bautista. More teams did not increase their earnings.
Additionally, the Angels may have zero interest in Upton in FA if he opts out. There are other options in the off-season (like Martinez in FA or another bat via a trade). Upton would be foolish to assume that the Angels will still be interested in paying him $90M+ if he opts out.
IF the Angels were to try and pay him not to opt out, then clearly they WOULD be interested in signing him in free agency. Or they are worried about him being priced out of their range which, if that is a legitimate concern, then it means opting out would be the most prudent move from Upton’s POV.
Oh no! You’re not happy with what I said, and the fact that it’s true, so you’re gonna downvote my comment? Just pathetic.
Actually, I didn’t downvote that comment. But I did downvote this one, Spaz.
Encarnacion turned down $88 million last year. How did that turn out?
J.D Martinez fetched nothing. Heck, Upton fetched nothing.
The market has changed.
Bottom line. The only reason the Angels would offer Upton money to not opt out is because they don’t want him to opt out. And all the reasons why they wouldn’t want him to opt out are reasons why Upton himself would opt out. So if it is that important to the Angels that they are willing to pay him not to opt out, then that means Upton is probably right to expect more money in free agency.
But the Angels are consistently bad at reading markets correctly. If they think Upton will opt out, that’s a good indication he will not.
I would highly recommend folks read the Fangraphs article about this very topic. Short version – the projections for Upton over the next four years line up, almost exactly, to the contract value. If anything, there is MORE risk for Upton by opting out. He could face what happened to Bautista, Encarnacion, and Trumbo. All guys who were either expected to sign for more money OR passed up actual offers for more money only to settle for less.
The other factor – a potential few million may not mean much if Upton really wants to play in Anaheim. Guy has already made more money than he can spend. At some point, money ceases to become the most important thing. Money can’t buy happiness and if he is happy in LA I can see that being the most important aspect of his decision making.
I will say that, since opt outs became popular, I think Upton is the guy whose earning potential comes in closest to the money he would be leaving on the table if he were to opt out. Most guys it’s either obvious they will (Greinke) or obvious they won’t (Shields).
That’s also probably the only reason why Upton was even able to be traded. It’s generally tough to trade players with opt outs because the opt out version and non-opt out version of that player are commodities with very different values. We saw this in effect with Johnny Cueto this year.
When will the owners wise up an stop agreeing to these one-sided opt-outs?!? Should he opt out, the contracts used to show what Upton might be able to get, are all terrible contracts, and show the ridiculous nature of long term contracts, which hardly ever pan out…Pujols and Hayward quickly come to mind as two of the worst ever! If players have a bad year, teams should be able to cut them loose…fair is fair!
Perfectly competitive market. All it takes is one team.
He might opt out but he won’t top 88 mil on the market. No one pays for corner outfield bats anymore.
He has 4 yrs/$88 Million left on the deal. Upton has most likely scored his last long term deal. I think he would be foolish to opt out. Nobody is paying more than 4/$88 to a below average defensive player with 28 homers. He should collect his money with LA.
He’s having a career year and he’s been traded to the Angels, a team he knows nothing about. Not a bad thing, just that after a couple months in LA he’ll want to see his options and select a new team on his terms.
Giants will probably give him like 4/115 because they are desperate and refuse to rebuild, he will have 1 decent year and then be very mediocre, and they will be saddled with another big contract which forces them further away from being competitive.