The last look we took at the handful of players with opt-out clauses following the 2017 season was more than a month ago, and a few of their situations may have changed since that early July check-in. Here’s an update on this group of potential free agents…
[Related: MLBTR Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition]
Trending Up
- Justin Upton, Tigers ($88.5MM from 2018-21): There have been plenty of suggestions that there’s no way Upton will walk away from that contract, but we’re not really sold on that notion. Upton was terrible in his first three months with the Tigers but is hitting .274/.352/.542 (137 wRC+) with 45 homers dating back to July 1, 2016. Over the past calendar year, he’s hitting .281/.366/.571 (148 wRC+) with 40 homers in 631 PAs. He’s been seven to nine runs above average in left field, per UZR and DRS, as well. Upton will play next year at the age of 30 and needs only to feel he can top Hanley Ramirez’s guarantee to opt out. Beyond that, he may simply like the idea of moving to a team that isn’t openly trying to pare back its payroll and retool for the future.
- Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees ($67MM from 2018-20): Tanaka’s home-run woes are an unequivocally troubling issue, but his numbers since the summer began are encouraging. Since May 26, Tanaka has a 3.99 ERA with 10.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent ground-ball rate — good for a 3.12 xFIP and a 3.17 SIERA. The numbers are even better if you look at his past nine starts (3.00 ERA, 65 K, 12 BB, 57 innings). The health concerns are well known. Tanaka had a partial UCL tear in his rookie season but was able to avoid Tommy John, and he’s currently on the DL with what is reportedly some minor shoulder fatigue. The righty has averaged 2.2 HR/9 this year, but he’s also going to be just 29 years old next year. An opt-out looked highly unlikely two months ago but now looks entirely plausible, as long as this latest DL trip proves minor.
- Welington Castillo, Orioles ($7MM player option): Since last check, Castillo has absolutely raked. He’s batted .308/.345/.500 with four homers and three doubles in his past 84 PAs, and his overall batting line it up to .283/.319/.457 (103 wRC+). Castillo’s framing marks have improved from some of the worst in the league to roughly average (per Baseball Prospectus), and he’s halted an incredible 46 percent of stolen-base attempts against him in 2017. He should be able to top a one-year, $7MM deal with ease this winter.
Trending Down
- Greg Holland, Rockies ($15MM player option): Since our last check, Holland has reminded everyone that he is indeed mortal. In his past 11 2/3 frames, he’s coughed up eight runs on a dozen hits and six walks with 14 strikeouts. Six of those runs have come in his past two outings, but as long as that proves to be a blip on the radar, Holland still seems a safe bet to opt out. If he significantly fades in his first year back from Tommy John or lands on the disabled list, though, there’s at least a chance that he takes the option. Assuming he remains healthy, though, Holland will likely look to top Mark Melancon’s four-year, $62MM deal this winter.
- Johnny Cueto, Giants ($84MM from 2018-21): It’s been almost a month since Cueto last set foot on a Major League mound, as he’s been sidelined with a forearm issue that has significantly clouded his chances of opting out. Reports earlier in the summer suggested that a slow start wasn’t going to deter Cueto from opting out, but a month-long injury scare and an ERA in the upper-4.00s certainly might. Cueto, 32 in February, has a 4.59 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and the second worst ground-ball rate of his career (39.2 percent). FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg him at 4.41 or worse.
Unchanged Since Last Check
- Matt Wieters, Nationals ($10.5MM player option): Wieters wasn’t hitting in early July, and he’s hitting even less now. His defensive reputation limited him to a two-year, $21MM deal with a player option after year one on the 2016-17 open market, and that was coming off a much better offensive season. Wieters seems extremely likely to take the $10.5MM in 2018.
- Ian Kennedy, Royals ($49MM from 2018-20): Kennedy’s results have improved slightly since the last opt-out update, but it’s hardly enough to make it likely that he’ll opt out of that significant guarantee. Through 120 innings in 2017, Kennedy has averaged 1.65 HR/9, tying a career-worst mark, while both his strikeout and walk rates have gone the wrong direction. He’s also missed a couple of weeks with a hamstring injury, and he’ll turn 33 this December.
- Wei-Yin Chen, Marlins ($52MM from 2018-20): No change here. Chen has scarcely been able to pitch in 2017 due to a reported partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. He’s reportedly still aiming for a late comeback, but that won’t be enough to give him the earning power to top his remaining guarantee.
tharrie0820
I think Upton would be crazy to opt out. The market for the corner positions/ Dh types hasn’t been good. Look at encarnacion, look at the weak return for JD Martinez (although completely different situations)
Steve Adams
Encarnacion was 34 years old with no defensive value and got $60MM. I’d argue that his case should actually be encouraging to Upton, who is four years younger and plays a solid left field.
Cespedes got $110MM over four years this past offseason when he was a year older than Upton will be this offseason.
JDM and Upton would impact each others’ markets, but Upton has much more defensive value. And after them, there’s a pretty huge drop-off in the corner outfield market.
padresfan
Solid? No
Decent left field? Yes
todda1
Yea I watch the Tigers everyday and yes he’s solid in left. Didn’t realize there was that much of a difference between solid and decent anyways.
sngehl01
7 to 9 runs above average per UZR and DRS. That’s 3rd in the majors for left field. Yeah, you’re right, that’s not decent, that’s just plain good.
aff10
Steve, I know you guys have sources that indicate that it’s unlikely that he will opt – out, but that actually seems unimaginable, no? He’s probably the best LF in baseball, will be entering his age 30 season, and is arguably having a career year. I know the position player market is laughably weak, but is it crazy to think Upton could still match the 6/$120 M that he pulled from Detroit originally in the winter, assuming he finishes the year in typical fashion?
LA Sam
Tanaka ain’t goin nowhere ! With this season’s performance n that ticking time bomb of an elbow…..
majorflaw
Agreed. If Tanaka opted out the Yankees would throw a party. They are well aware that his elbow is on borrowed time.
dodgerfan711
Tanaka will probably do it because on the market he can easily top 67 mil. Cant see Cueto opting out.
oldschoolfan
As a Yankees fan, I hope he does. he is not worth that money as it is , he has been awful this season overall, and I would rather see that money freed up for other uses and/ or to get under the cap. he also seems one pitch away from TJ surgery- let him become someone else’s problem.
thegreatcerealfamine
Exactly School..I’ve got my fingers crossed he’ll walk. This winter the Yanks can rid them selves of this logjam of middle infielders by perhaps trading for even more starting pitching.
Fanofsports5653
Wish he got the surgery as a rookie
pustule bosey
cueto it will most likely depend on whether he comes back and has a good month, if he has a so so month or worse I imagine he won’t, but I think he wants a change of scenery so he may be looking for a reason to opt out.
Phillies2017
Outfield market is extremely congested this offseason
Martinez, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Lorenzo Cain, Bruce, Grandy, Jon Jay, Beltran and Maybin are all possible starting outfielders (Beltran moreso power DH, but you get my drift).
Definitely not enough suitors to pay all of them- Upton should stick around in MoTown.
Tanaka gets a QO if he opts out, clouding his value. Honestly, the market for SP’s looked a lot better in April as Arrietta, Cueto, Pineda etc. have all seen their stocks drop.
With Darvish ineligible to receive a QO, Tanaka probably ranks 3rd or 4th available. With his injury history, I don’t know if any team will be willing to give him more than what he has.
thegreatcerealfamine
Tanaka doesn’t fit the criteria for a QO if he opts out…
therealryan
Why wouldn’t the Yankees offer him a QO? If he opts out of 3/$67mm, he obviously won’t take a 1/$18mm or whatever deal. Might as well get some compensation if he walks.
jdgoat
Upton would also be either the best or second best of the bunch. He’ll get his money
jmi1950
Where are the $$$$ for these guys. This yr will be a buyers market. Other than Castillo the rest need to stay put. LAD’s don’t need to spend. Other than a SP the NYY and Phils are waiting for Machado & Harper. The BoSox need to extend Betts, JBJ, Boegarts & Sale. Az, Wash, Cleve, Hou, LAA, SEA,SF, Det are maxed out Cubs $$ will go for SP’s. Most of the other teams are rebuilding or too cheap to pay top dollar.
steven st croix
Don’t see how Houston is maxed out. They have Correa, Springer, Altuve, and Keuchel all on the cheap right now. Also, Beltran and his $15 million will be off the books after the year.
jmi1950
Beltran’s 16MM won’t go far with all of the players arb elig or in need of an extension.
ExileInLA 2
Mets will pay for Castillo, IMO – and for a short term deal for a CF (Jay or Gomez). But it’s not a good year to be a mediocre FA…
daviebatz
Unfortunately don’t think you’re right with them going for Castillo. They plan on sticking with d’arnaud. And I pray you’re wrong with the CF and they go for Cain.
BuddyBoy
Seattle has $30M off the books in injured starters alone.
jmi1950
It’s only 22MM with the buy outs. Most of that will go to Paxton and Smyley who are Arb. elig..
User 4245925809
The 3 listed as unchanged are all Boras people and although it seems they should, in their best interests stay put next year? never count out Boras seeking something over the rainbow that does not exist.
crazy Jawa
With catcher sisco about to make it to the bigs, Castillo could also see some playing time reduced too if he stayed.
Michael Chaney
He’s opting out no matter what anyway so it doesn’t really matter
Patrick Macek
I thought I read the Tigers could not make a qualifying offer to Upton if he opts out. Is that the case? not that it would matter much they wouldn’t get much in return.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
According to the new CBA, a player may only receive a qualifying offer once in his career. This includes players who received one before the new CBA was passed. Justin Upton received a qualifying offer from the Padres after the 2015 season So no, he is not eligible to receive one from the Tigers if he opts out after this season.
natsgm
There was never a moment anyone should have thought Wieters would be worth that contract. How he got a player option is beyond me.
Modified_6
Yeah, that contract is terrible. I didn’t understand it when I saw the $$$, thought it was a joke when I found out the option was player not team.
JoeyPankake
Cueto needs to go on a diet. He has looked out of shape for a couple years now.
brat922
That is BS. This guy runs stadium stairs at every stadium they play in. Daily. Super athletic, great fielder, bikes a lot. Get your info straight. Don’t judge a book by its cover.
bush1
He said “diet”. Not working out… I agree that Cueto does look heavier now, and could probably clean up his diet, especially if he’s working out that hard and still looks like that.
bush1
He said “diet”. Not working out… I agree that Cueto does seem heavy and could probably clean up his diet, especially if he’s working out that hard and still looks like that…
Solaris611
I think SF is gonna be stuck with Cueto for the duration just as they were with Zito and now Matt Cain. It would be great if he set the world on fire in September and opted out, but based on recent history for him, that ain’t likely to happen.
jmi1950
Yes, but how lucky was SF when Lincecum & Panda turned down their extension offers.
wiggysf
If he stays and returns to form I would be happy to keep him.
THE JOKER
I think SF needs a face lift..they should bring in some new faces from different places free agents & money to spend.. good lock
Legacy of Bo
Upton is in line for a Gold Glove this year, chew on that when you are making your opt in/out arguments. The best thing for Tiger fans will be if he opts out, because next year will be BAD! Clearing his money off the books would be a blessing in disguise.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
If that’s the case there’s no way he opts out. All the reasons why Tigers fans and FO personnel would want Upton to opt out are reasons why he wouldn’t want to opt out and vice versa.
bbcatt
If Tanaka does opt out the Yankees should throw him a party to take Ellsbury with him.
Bluesman
More examples of the unfairness of opt-out clauses. If a player can opt-out after a good season, and leave his team high and dry, then a team should be able to cut an underperforming player as well…fair is fair.
lyle
Teams do have opt-out clauses. They are called team options. Pretty much every early career extension has them.
bush1
He said “diet”. Not working out… I agree that Cueto does seem heavy and could probably clean up his diet, especially if he’s working out that hard and still looks like that