Trade Chatter: Pitching Market, Nats, Quintana, Rangers, Rox, A’s

Rocky7, 1990 called and they want back their pitcher evaluation algorithm you used for the basis of your post. “He’s not a winner” is your prose — just lazy.

Here’s why–as of May 8, 2016 (sorry most recent article I could find) , Jose Quintana had started 119 games. In those starts the Sox scored zero runs for him 18 times ( a real winner would have held the opposing to team to negative runs and found a way to get that W) one run 26 times, two runs 28 times, and THREE runs 15 times. Meaning, the sox scored three runs or less in 73% of Quintana’s starts, two runs or less in 61% of his starts, one run or less in 37% of his starts, and NO runs in 15% of his starts.

To break it down even more simply, here are pure win loss records for era’s with that type of run support (assuming no no decisions and equal number of runs given up in each 9 inning start) 3.01 era, 41-78; 2.01 era, 56-63; 1.01 era, 77-42; and a .01 era, 101-18.

Essenrially, no pitcher in history wins with that type of support…but let’s not that stop us from holding his win loss record against him.

To address your unsubstantiated attempt to downplay the fact that he’s under control for the next four years, let’s stuff those distractingly convincing W/L numbers into a locker, like you probably did to all those smart kids in high school, and focus on facts brave enough to venture outside the comfort zone of irrelevancy.

Since 2013, Jose Quintana is 7th in fWAR in all of baseball. I know, I know WAR is for 40 year olds who still live in their parents’ basements.

Let’s pick ERA then, it won’t tell us whether the guy is a true winner who can make his team score runs more effectively than Jason heyward in a rain delay– but it should give us a general idea of the pitcher’s actual performance when he’s on the field.

I used 650 innings pitched as the qualifier– I hope you don’t mind.

Quintana is ranked 16th in the MLB in ERA since 2013. I know what you’re thinking Rocky 7– you can’t rely on ERA because it doesn’t account for quality of defense (you just strike me as a guy that will stop at nothing until he gets the credibke insight he craves) — We have to at least look at FIP. Settle Rock, we will get there buddy, be patient. Well would you look at that , Quintana is also ranked 16th in FIP.

If we’re going to look at FIP I mean we obviously have to consider xFIP (I know it’s like I can read your mind)– unfortunately Jose loses a little ground there and is only ranked 26th.

I know by now you’re asking yourself “Who stops a pitcher evaluation there? ” Don’t worry pebbles, this logic train will keep on rolling into ERA minus meyeics. And as luck would have it, there we find the pitcher affectionatly known as “Q” sandwiched between Chris Archer and johnny Cueto in spot 16.

Enough with years of historical data, let’s focus on his dozen starts this year that are so much more meaningful for reasons only convenience can explain. I think we all agree this has been a very unQ like year, but nonetheless let’s take a look at this year’s numbers.

Well color me shocked — without considering tonight’s start (which was quite good) Mr. Quintana ranks 28th in fwar (just ahead of darvish) and 37th in FIP. Uncharacteristically inconsistent start indeed, but perhaps a little overblown by all the people standing in line dying to say “I told you so”, because onviously two months of mediocrity gets way more credence than 4 years of 3.5, 5.1, 4.8, 4.8 WAR.

But hasnt the knock on Quintana always been that he doesn’t have the strikeout stuff needed to dominate a game — well look at that — he’s striking out batters at a career high 8.92/9 clip this year good for 21st in all of baseball. But let’s ignore that now and focus on all the other numbers we previously ignored to discredit him.

And now for his actual contract – 6M this year, 8.8M next year and then two option years at 10.5 M for a total of ~$35 mil over the next 4 years. Other contracts for reference include Nolasco at age 31 – 4 yrs/49M, samardjiza at age 32, 4 yrs/72 mil, Scott Kazmir at age 32, 3 yrs/48 mil. I could go on but won’t.

8.5 M a year for a 5 win player at his best/ 3 win player at his worst ( prorated for this year currently at 1.3 through 13 starts) is valuable — very valuable. The white sox should expect appropriate value in return if they decide tom move them. I just hope the gm’s who analyze baseball players for a living can see past that pesky win loss record that keeps popping up (the 8 no decisions he has while giving up 0 er in at least 7 IP would certainly make me think twice before giving up a few players who would be welcomed with open arms if they end up with careers combined that match the value Quinyana has produced)

Let’s try to put a little more thought into our next post, that way I won’t have to pause world of Warcraft for two hours just to state the obvious.