Major league teams are always on the lookout for established, affordable pitching. That fact could make right-hander Gerrit Cole, he of the $3.75MM salary, among the most appealing players available if the Pirates shop him prior to the trade deadline.
While Cole has drawn interest, there’s no indication Pittsburgh will place him on the block in the next couple months. However, the Pirates are just 25-31 – four games behind the NL Central-leading Brewers and eight games out of a wild-card spot – so it looks likely they’ll end up selling. As such, it could behoove the Bucs to at least listen to offers for Cole, especially if they’re unconvinced they’ll be able to return to their playoff-caliber ways of 2013-15 in the near future. The Pirates’ window with Cole is running out (he’s controllable via arbitration through 2019), and as a low-payroll outfit, odds are the team won’t be able to keep the Scott Boras client from hitting free agency if it elects against trading him in the coming years.
The problem for the Pirates, both from a contending standpoint and for Cole’s trade value, is that the 26-year-old has taken steps backward since his earlier days in the league. During his best season, 2015, Cole was a bona fide ace who notched 208 innings of 2.60 ERA ball (with a 2.66 FIP) and helped his cause with strong strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Cole’s ERA went up nearly a run and a half last year (3.88, with a still-impressive 3.33 FIP) as his strikeout rate sunk, but injuries may have played a part in that. Pittsburgh shut down Cole in early September after just 116 innings and multiple stints on the disabled list – one for a strained triceps and another for elbow inflammation.
Fortunately, Cole has stayed healthy this year and already amassed 71 2/3 frames, but the results haven’t been great. While Cole has continued to limit walks (2.01 per nine) and generate grounders (46 percent), he ranks middle of the pack or worse among FanGraphs’ 89 qualifying starters in ERA (4.27, 55th), FIP (4.77, 67th), K/9 (7.66, 50th) and strikeout percentage (20.3, 47th). The main culprit for Cole’s run prevention issues is a bloated home run-to-fly ball ratio (19.7 percent), up from a career 9.3 percent. With 15 homers allowed, Cole has already established a career worst and yielded eight more long balls than he did during his truncated 2016.
Cole’s history indicates he’ll positively regress in the home run department, but it’s not a sure thing if his fastball doesn’t regain its effectiveness. Although Cole sits second among starters in average sinker velocity (96.15) and third in four-seam velo (96.73), according to Baseball Prospectus, he hasn’t exactly dominated with those pitches. Back in 2015, Cole had the second-most valuable fastball among starters, per FanGraphs, but it has been the ninth-worst pitch of its kind so far this year. Hitters have posted a .947 OPS against Cole’s four-seamer and a .945 mark versus his sinker, the two pitches he has leaned on the most, while his third, fourth and fifth offerings (his slider, changeup and knuckle-curve) have yielded an OPS of .644, .645 and .697, respectively.
Left-handed hitters have been especially tough on Cole, having slashed .276/.308/.572 with 10 homers and held their own against nearly all of his pitches, primarily his four-seamer. That certainly wasn’t the case when Cole’s four-seamer stymied lefties in 2015, and heat maps courtesy of FanGraphs (click to view: 2015, 2017) indicate he’s not locating the pitch as precisely as he did then. Meanwhile, with the exception of his sinker, Cole’s repertoire has limited same-handed batters, who have hit .244/.304/.314 against him. Four of righties’ five HRs off Cole have come against his sinker, which was tough to square up during his career year. As Brooks Baseball’s heat maps show (click to view: 2015, 2017), Cole’s not coming inside against righties with his sinker to nearly the extent that he did in the past, and the pitch has too often found the middle of the plate.
In fairness to Cole, his struggles this year largely boil down to his most recent three starts, a 14 2/3-inning stretch in which he gave up a combined 16 earned runs on 28 hits and eight homers. As recently as May 21, Cole was running a sub-3.00 ERA, and eight of his first nine outings were quality starts. If that version of Cole resurfaces and the Pirates do shop him by the end of July, they’d be within reason to request a prospect bounty in return. On the other hand, should the Cole who has shown up over the past two weeks stick around, Pittsburgh might be better served to keep the fifth-year man through season’s end and market him over the winter or during the 2018 campaign. After all, if Cole’s woes against opposite-handed batters continue, starter-needy contenders like the Astros, Yankees and Rockies – all of whom play in hitter-friendly parks – may not be keen on parting with multiple high-end prospects for someone generating so-so results.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
On these posts, can you do some sort of trade proposals for both teams? That would be very cool.
Totally depends on how he pitches next month or so.. Package could be anything from “3 of your top 5 prospects” if he pitches like an ace, to “1 of your top 3 plus some stuff” if he continues to get hammered.
Being that trades are also often bidding wars, its silly to try and label what individual players are worth on the market, as all teams will willingly overpay if the owners or GM want someone badly.
It’s not that silly to speculate about what a pitcher will bring back as the difference you’re referencing is rarely worth discussing.
However, his reference of a “team’s” top prospects is silly as one teams top 10 prospect could be better than another team’s best prospect. Some farms are loaded while others look like an expansion team in their first year.
Gerrit Cole and Tony Watson to the Astros for Kyle Tucker, Francis Martes, David Paulino, and AJ Reed.
seems fairly solid honestly
Yes but they won’t
That might be a fair deal for both teams
the Astros have an overpaid ineffective lefty, why would they want another one?
gobraves46 you are good at this
Thanks!
Give this commenter a trade proposal segment on mlbtrade rumors stat!
The Astros top 4 prospects? For an underperforming Cole and a 32 year old lefty reliever who is past his prime? And people think this is a good proposal….smh
I agree. Cole isnt going to net that return unless he can throw some good ball. Been bad as of late and was sokid early on, but last years down year plus now this years down numbers will give teams pause. If Tucker moves, i think it’s for someone where they don’t question what they are getting as much. Add Fisher instead of Tucker and I buy that.
Fisher is about to get called up and Aoki DFA’d.
Aoki is only a few hits away from getting 2000 career hits combined in Japan and MLB. I suspect the Astros would like have him accomplish that feat while playing for them.
Good, realistic offer…. but I think Houston will balk at moving Tucker and insist on adding 2 other top 30 specs like SS Sierra and another. And Paulino might be off the table as well if he has a good showing and sticks with the club.
Do it already
Man, apparently him and Quintana would prefer to stay where they are this year. Sucks for the Pirates and Sox.
I think the white sox should of taken the deal that was offered to them by the astros until they got greedy and asked for Alex Bregman. Pirates might ask for the same
I don’t think they ever asked for Bregman in a Q trade; that was for Sale… I’m pretty sure the Q rumors had the Sox asking for Martes/Tucker/Musgrove… Obviously not sure what the Astros ever actually offered though.
I think I read that the Astros we’re asking the rays about Archer, and i think the rays got greedy
The rays should be greedy. 194 innings, 212 innings, 201 innings, 3.2 war, 5.2 war, and 3.1 war averaging 10+k last 2 years and this year.
Oh and hes under contract till 2021 for 5 mill this year, 6.5 next, 7.7 2019, 8.3 2020 and 8.3 2021
Hes a great number 2 type pitcher making well under what 4th and 5th type starters get paid on the open market now a days.
Rays should be greedy cause they hold all the cards considerong they can just keep him next 4 years and trade him at any point they get a deal they like.
Hindsight being 20/20, I think the Sox blew their chances of getting top dollar for Quintana, Frazier, and Robertson.
Disagree on Robertson. Outside of today’s 3-run homer, which was a fantastic piece of hitting on a well executed pitch about a foot off the plate, he has been excellent this year.
I guess Frazier’s value has technically dropped, but he didn’t have much (arguably none) to begin with, so it’s hard to hold that one against them.
I’m sure Quintana’s value has dropped a little bit, but I don’t think it’s as much as most casual fans just looking at a stat sheet would think. His ERA is bloated and walks are up, but he hasn’t been THAT bad outside of a couple games (last 2 mainly). He has plenty of time (both this year and/or the next couple) to recoup that value. But if he continues to be iconsistent and have these awful games up to the deadline, you’re most likely right in regards to his value.
The guy above sent Cole to Houston so I’ll send him to Colorado:
Gerrit Cole for Riley Pint, Ryan McMahon, Forrest Wall
Thats an Overpay! Pint wont be in that conversarion.”
Thought it seemed pretty light myself. Pint isn’t as highly regarded as Martes and Tucker who people keep throwing out in trade proposals.
The Yankees have always been connected to Cole, would Gregorius, Fowler & Acevedo work?
I don’t think that is enough, knowing the pirates they would ask for Torres or Frazier as part of the package
No way the Yankees would include Torres in a deal for Cole. Maybe Frazier since they have a lot of outfielders.
Yes, but so do the Pirates.
Cole Spurned the Yankees out of High School after they drafted him, so usually teams have long memories when it comes to that. You never know though
yanks willing to trade Torres or Frazier for him lol
2+ years of cheap control and an established track record of being good warrants that. Cole is an easy choice for a bounce back, and the pirates front office aren’t going to sell him low when they still have time that he will bounce back.
Rarely are pitchers worth top prospects like Torres and Frazier, they are outlier. I wouldn’t trade Torres, Frazier, or Adams for any pitcher right now.
No shot in hell that the NYY will trade Torres or Frazier. If I was going to trade a SS prospect….it would be Mateo. So how about Mateo, Chasen Shrieve, Acevedo
Lol
You’re an idiot.
Can’t figure out why the Pirates would want gregorius
No way the yanks trade Gregorius
Sell high on Mercer, Didi has more years of control. Didi also could get flipped if theres an internal option available.
Yanks absolutely are trading Didi, Gleyber is the SS of the future and Mateo is around too. Didi is a fine everyday SS, moving him destroys his value and he is an upgrade over 2/3rds of the league SS’s, so hes plenty valuable and being the headline piece in a deal for a guy with an ace ceiling that hes already hit before and is a prime bounceback candidate is absolutely no slight on him.
Torres is already playing 3B. Didi is staying put
Oh I don’t know an excellent fielding very good LH player when they currently have nothing like that. Wow I wonder!
Yankees would be back peddling to include Gregorius. That would make zero sense. How about Frazier, Andujar, and Acevedo?
Wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers got him prior to the deadline. They need a solid RHP.
Don’t be shocked if the pirates asked for Bellinger or Willie Calhoun plus others
Bellinger isn’t going anywhere IMO he’s already up and has established himself as a solid MLB hitter and he’s pretty much earmarked to take over for A-Gon
No one has established themselves as a solid MLB hitter after 156 plate appearances.
Very true. Poor choice of words.
But I’m with him in saying that Bellinger isn’t going anywhere.
The Pirates may ask but they won’t get Bellinger. It’s early but he has the potential to be another Seager but with speed too.
Except he’s going to cost 2 of Alvarez, Buehler, White. That’s not happening. The Dodgers and pirates don’t fit well. The Dodgers don’t have the offensive firepower left.
Cole to Cubs for almora candelario dela Cruz/caratini
That feels right, a bit of an over pay for division rival. 2 Top 100s and a pretty high floor with Caratini, Dela Cruz is a great lottery ticket.
Definitely not an overpay
Exactly, these things need to be centered around an elite talent. This package is not, nor is that Mateo, Acevedo package. Cole’s gonna bring in at least 1 top 50 unless he really collapses
Cole to Yankees for Torres, Montgomery, Austin
That isn’t terrible. Probably would have to take out Monty and put in Kap, Shep, or Adams.
That’s just horrible for the Yanks!
That would be crazy of the Yankees.
I’d go Mateo, Fowler, A pitcher not named Kaprelian or Adams, and a low level guy. That’s as high as I’d go.
Then you wouldn’t get Cole lol
Wouldn’t want him for anything more than that
Kaprelian is an injury case
Mateo used to be a top prospect— now he’s 21 and hitting .250 in high A ball, he’s the reason why you trade “top prospects” for proven players
As a Yankees fan— a fair trade for Cole would have to start with Torres or Frazier, I’d love for them to leave both of them out and do a bigger return for the Pirates headlined by Rutherford
thank you for being objective that’s what it would take to get Cole now I’m off the opinion that they don’t necessarily need to go for an ace right away. they have a great farm and young players let’s see how it plays out
WAAAAAY too much to give up for a #4. Mateo is a once in a lifetime prospect. You don’t trade them.
It’s just too early to discuss trade candidates and the expected return. Unless a team has an early urgent need and is willing to blow the selling team out of the water, it behooves all GM’s to wait. Your team could go on a run or more likely as another already said, it only takes two teams to create a bidding war. If not Houston, I can see the Yankees get involved. Especially if Tanaka is pitching hurt. Important for the Yankees (like the Red Sox, is too get under the tax threshold once if not this year, then next. I can even see the Yankees upgrading the package to include a minor league player presently an untouchable if THE Pirates will take Headley and most of that cost. Depending on the return, a smaller market team might bite given it’s only one more year.
I wouldn’t trade him because he’s still fairly young and I think when the Pirates are in contention in 3-4 years, he can be a solid Peace at the top or middle of the rotation. The Pirates need to build around Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon in the rotation along with Tyler Glasnow and maybe Chad Kuhl.
He is a free agent after 2019 and he is a Boras client.
aka no extension and then its……
Show me the money time
He is gone after 19 trade or no trade.
Agreed. If they’re out of the playoff race, he should be traded next month barring a collapse in his value.
Unless they are leading the Central by more than 5 games, I’d still trade him, contention or not. This isn’t a WS team, no reason to pretend otherwise.
I wish the Angels could get him. But we all know that isn’t very realistic.
I have no idea what exactly he’s worth, but I do know that Cole will never be worth more than he will this July. The Pirates have to move him.
The fact that Cutch will net far less than anyone could have predicted a few years ago means they have to get maximum value for Cole to restock the system. That means trading him when he has 3 playoff runs under control and while his arm is still healthy.
when he becomes a FA, hell sign with SF or LA
If I’m a contender considering Cole for my rotation, I have to not only consider his uneven results in ’16 & ’17, but the fact that he’s struggling under the tutelage of one of the best pitching coaches in the game. I can only think of a couple pitching coaches who are on par or better than Searage, and that’s Mike Maddux and Rick Honeycutt.