MLBTR is launching a new summer series entitled Taking Inventory, in which we’ll preview the potential trade chips that could become available on a number of likely and borderline selling clubs throughout the league.
The Giants are already 25-39 and are not only 16 1/2 games behind the first-place Rockies in the NL West, they’re 13 1/2 games back of the third-place Diamondbacks. While it’s not impossible that they could still make a run at contention, it’s highly unlikely. That would seem to make them potential sellers at the trade deadline. Still, one shouldn’t necessarily expect fireworks. The Giants have endured frustrating seasons in the somewhat recent past and generally haven’t reacted with big shakeups, and even if their track record indicated a radical rebuild was a possibility, the circumstances of many of their veterans assets seemingly impede potential trades (as ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick recently explained).
Rentals
Johnny Cueto, RHP (starter) | Salary: $21MM
There are no indications yet that the Giants will move Cueto, and to do so would be complex, although not impossible. Cueto is signed through 2021 with a team option for 2022, but he has an opt-out after the 2017 season, meaning that it will be difficult for any potential trade partner to know whether they’re getting a long-term asset or a short-term one. Cueto will also receive a $5MM buyout if he exercises his opt-out and a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded, further complicating a potential move. Cueto’s seemingly uneven performance this year might also be a factor, but perhaps a less important one — he has a 4.33 ERA this season, but his peripherals (9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) are strong as usual.
Eduardo Nunez, IF | Salary: $4.2MM
Unlike many players on this list, Nunez is reasonably priced. While he’s never been a world-beater offensively, he’s been consistent, and his .293/.320/.401 line thus far this season provides a good indication of what to expect from his contact-heavy offensive game going forward. He’s also versatile defensively, capable of playing third base, shortstop and the corner outfield spots. A contender could easily see him as a terrific bench piece. Nunez is as likely as any player on this list to be moved, and a trade would have the benefit of clearing a spot for some combination of Christian Arroyo and Jae-gyun Hwang, who are both currently with Triple-A Sacramento.
Aaron Hill, IF | Salary: $2MM
Hill is a recent minor-league signee who’s batting .178/.238/.333 thus far this season. It’s possible the Giants could deal him to a team in need of infield depth, but the return isn’t likely to be significant.
Nick Hundley, C | Salary: $2MM
Like Hill, Hundley has hit sparingly this season and wouldn’t have much trade value. It’s possible the Giants could ship him in a minor deal to a team in need of catching depth.
Controlled Through 2018
Hunter Pence, OF | Salary: $18.5MM
Pence has a full no-trade clause and has played poorly this season, batting .228/.269/.310 and missing time to a hamstring strain. Like many Giants, he might net the team a bit of extra value on the trade market due to his postseason experience, but he’s still unlikely to command much of a return unless he hits well over the next six weeks.
Matt Cain, RHP (starter) | Salary: $20MM
Cain’s exorbitant salary, the $7.5MM buyout on his 2018 option, and his uninspiring performances the past several seasons would seemingly make a trade very tricky, except perhaps as a change-of-scenery deal in which the Giants were to pick up nearly all of his remaining salary.
Longer-Term Assets
Jeff Samardzija, RHP (starter); Buster Posey, C; Mark Melancon, RHP (reliever); Madison Bumgarner, LHP (starter), Denard Span, OF; Brandon Crawford, SS; Matt Moore, LHP (starter); Brandon Belt, 1B; George Kontos, RHP (reliever)
Though Samardzija has a 4.31 ERA this season, his outstanding ratios (10.5 K/9, 1.3 BB/9) would surely make him an attractive trade candidate. He is, however, signed through 2020 and can block trades to all but eight teams, complicating potential deals. It certainly wouldn’t be impossible for the Giants to trade him, but as with Cueto, it would be complex.
Posey and Melancon have full no-trade protection and are under contract for the next several seasons. Bumgarner has limited no-trade protection, is currently injured, and has reasonably priced options for 2018 and 2019. Span is 33, has produced modest offense this season, and is owed $9MM next season, plus at least a $4MM buyout and a remaining portion of his signing bonus. Crawford is signed through 2021 and has full no-trade protection. Moore is signed to a team-friendly contract that includes relatively cheap options for 2018 and 2019, potentially making him a trade asset, but he hasn’t pitched well this season. Belt is signed through 2021; his limited no-trade clause hasn’t yet kicked in, but he’s also in the first year of the extension he signed last season. Of all those players, perhaps the most likely to be dealt are Span and Moore, and neither of those seem that likely.
Kontos is one of a number of Giants relievers who could theoretically be dealt, also including Cory Gearrin, Hunter Strickland and Derek Law. Of those, Kontos is among the closest to free agency eligibility and the one with the longest track record. He’s signed for a reasonable $1.75MM in 2017 and is controllable for two more seasons, and while his strikeout and walk rates have fluctuated throughout his career and he’s never had elite velocity, he’s also never had a season in which he wasn’t at least modestly effective.
It ain’t there year. 2018 WS Champs
They aren’t a good team anymore. The title ship has sailed.
their**
I don’t know. This team looks like it could be bad for quite a while.
yeah they are sinking fast and most of thier best players are paid big money. not a ton of valuable assets to really restock the farm. unless they deal bum and poesy who have good value
I don’t know if I buy that, I will say that they aren’t good right now but it depends on what gets done in the next year or 2, it isn’t like they are buried under a lot of expensive long term contracts for aging guys, the long term ones are actually not bad (belt, crawford, bumgarner, posey) and the ones that haven’t been great (pence, cain, span, nunez, hundley, hill…) will all be gone in the next year or 2
the one big question is melancon since the team really hasn’t been playing well enough to merit a closer –
Calling Nunez “capable” in the outfield is a stretch. His adventures in left this year have been a never-ending source of sub-par plays. He’s a solid infielder, though.
Nunez to the Red Sox?
This team is in a tough spot. No reason not to think they can’t bounce back next year with a healthy Bum and a return to “norms” with a few key players. Beyond 2018 this team has some odd contracts, but certainly nothing as ugly as what other rebuilding teams had to deal with, much better position to fix on the fly than worry about blowing anything up. They’ll have a nice pick and slot $ for 2018 draft.
Pretty sad situation when you see it all listed out like that.
Trade everyone not named Posey, Bumgarner, Crawford, or Panik for whatever you can get.
I’ve never quite understood why Giants fans love Joe Panik so much. He’s a very good defensive second baseman but his offense is straight out of the 1980s second-base mold. There’ just nothing there. No power, doesn’t walk much, no speed, I think players like him are pretty easy to find.
I’m a huge giants fan I absolutely hate Joe Panik. He is so overrated in terms of what he brings to the table. He has 0 power, no speed, little above average contact, and great defense. those types of players are typically bench depth at best.
giants problem started to unwind when they traded there 3rd baseman for Moore who is good or very bad. Ten replaced him with nunez who can’t play outfield and is negative war at third and can’t hit regularly
You are crazy. Panik is one of the very best defenders at his position and is annually in or around the top ten in toughest to strike out in the league.
That would be nothing.
Posey would bring back what Milwaukee got for Lucroy. Four more years and $87 million guaranteed for Posey who is already 30 years old.
Would Boston want him? Sure. Do they have room on their payroll? Nope. Yankees? Nope.
Phillies would be the best destination. Wide open payroll, $200 million worth of space.
Theoretically the Mets should be in play, but the Commissioner would have to order Wilpon to do it.
The Braves should also be in play, but again they claim they’re poor.
The Astros could do it if their owner Jim Crane wasn’t another crook stealing his fan base dry.
The Rangers could too, but their owner doesn’t want to take the payroll that high.
The Pirates would be a sweet fit, but that bloodsucker is arguably the biggest crook among the baseball owners. He’s not paying anyone and their payroll is probably $70 million lower than what the Pirates could afford.
The Angels would love to have Posey, but their farm is more barren of life than Death Valley.
Tampa should have drafted Posey, could do a deal, but their owner is consumed with defrauding some population for a free ballpark.
I guess the Cubs can go in here too.
Hopefully the Giants will float Posey. This site will light up like the White House Christmas tree.
Melancon, Cueto, and Shark might get you some decent returns. Cueto’s contract would be tricky tho.
Hanging Posey out there would be interesting. Don’t want it to happen but I’m curious.
they are paid so much tho not enough serplus value. if teams wanted them they would have signed them as free agents
that depends though on need and the trade deadline, if someone goes down on a contending team the salary becomes less of a consideration than the replacement
This is the most ridiculous thing I’ve read in awhile, thank you
How is this ridiculous? The comment basically was that those 3 are the guys I think would be easiest to trade without breaking up the core and possibly getting something in return worthwhile.
Wasn’t responding to your post you dolt
Posey’s got a full no-trade, and it might tarnish his marketability if he left SF, so even if Evans is willing to shop him I don’t see him leaving.
the one place he may want to go at some point I would think is atlanta, since it is his hometown and he grew up a braves fan
yea because the rebuilding Braves will trade their stacked farm for an expensive catcher that moves them from 74 wins to 78 wins.
I would try to rebuild the bullpen first, both corners of the outfield, then think 3B or new closer. Trading anyone who could actually bring back a decent return would probably warrant a full rebuild. This offseason they have to stop dumpster diving or they will be bad for a while.
Their below-par farm system has finally caught up with them. While they have some chips at the MLB level, it’s surrounded by mediocrity, without much hope of impact players coming up anytime soon.
Well the farm system should have dried up when your contending 6-7 years in a row…i know you can still find good it great players late (Trout) but, better chances up higher.
Doesn’t help that the bullpen core aged out
Well-run organizations can build a strong farm system even when they contend for sustained periods of time, i.e. the Cardinals
that’s what the Giants did but it appears catches up eventually even your cardnils have had a batten system at times
Cardinals are slowly fading now but, your not wrong about them. They are run extremely well.
the cardinals get 2 compensation picks every year rain or shine, of course their farm is stocked – the problem with SF vs someone like say boston who is a better comp is that SF has been contending in the years they weren’t winning so there hasn’t been an opportunity to get those picks, and last year they didn’t even pick till the bottom of the 2nd round after signing shark. the overall number of drafts if you look last year was pretty pitiful for the giants compared to the rest of the teams.
boston has actually had the best draft picks by ML WAR over the last decade….
Yeah I think you’re right but that’s expected when you contend over half a decade. That and signing vets to long deals. Some of those trades last season were puzzling tho.
The Giants look like they could be a strong team in 2018. The bullpen is starting to come together and likely to be complete next season. The performance and outcome of the SPs will only improve with health. I see the weakness is in the OF and the type of role players Bruce Bochy prefers to manage. Corner OFs and utility players are the most available of players to improve the team.
They lose Cueto and after him it’s Madbum and a bunch of nada in the rotation. And they’re in the best division in baseball. Even the Padres have the cavalry coming in the form of a top 5 farm system.
pads are still a ways out tho thier talent is all teenagers
My prediction is for one last run in 2018. If the OF defense improves their range, the SPs will be much better. Madison Bumgarner will be back. Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija will have batter results; Matt Moore and Matt Cain will be two years removed from their injuries. The pen should be complete and they will likely work on the utility pieces soon.
After 2018, a rebuild is imminent.
Cain will be gone for good in 2018. Tyler Beede and Tyler Blach will likely round out the rotation. Maybe Ryder Jones and/or Austin Slater cement OF jobs since Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker can’t stay healthy.
They’re not going to get much value or salary relief back for selling now. Might as well tough it out. And yes, the expiring contracts in 2018 make it a logical time to hit the restart button.
the pen still isn’t great (outside of melancon)- they need some glue in it – it seems like every guy is trying to get to the next guy except maybe strickland. though I do like the hail mary pass of dyson – if he can get turned around you struck paydirt for nothing
Pass the butter and jam, they are toast. Sabean and Evans have spent the farm system’s assets dry in an effort to remain competitive over the last half dozen years and the toll has finally caught up with them. They are left with a barren minor league system ( just reflect back on their assets now performing elsewhere) and a payroll bloated roster of under-performing, undesirable veterans. Clearly, as stated elsewhere in these posts, the ship has sailed. (or did it SINK?).
yeah I agree props to them for keeping the window open a good 7 years but it’s shut now
Giants are essentially stuck with the majority of their roster with only core players like Bumgarner, Panik, Posey, Crawford, and MAYBE Belt bringing upper tier prospects. SF might as well sit on Cueto and hope he opts out after the season. Bid Pence farewell after this season, and Cain and Span go away after next year. This will be a protracted rebuild. Draft wisely this week.
Its not the players time for a manager change lineup is constantly changing and Nunez should be leading off
2018 San Francisco Giants projected to one of the highest payrolls in MLB….and that is without adding anything. A terrible TV deal and a Farm system ranked 27th by BA and agreeably ranked bad by most other reliable sources . Considering the new CBA agreement the situation in San Francisco is grim . High bloated payroll w/ substandard talent and a bad farm system generally means DEFCON 2 and a massive rebuild is in order . It’s the only solution for a sustainable future for the franchise but the problem is that Seemingly, Giants ownership doesn’t have the will to do that . They’re stuck on selling tickets around the nostalgia of ‘ 3 in 5’ and all that past glory . At the field level , Bochy doesn’t necessarily like playing young players and isn’t really receptive to advanced metrics and doesn’t embrace splits or even adhere to modern arm care ( He regularly throws his Starters 120 pitches per outing ) . IMO opinion this franchise needs a massive overhaul and house cleaning in baseball Ops , roster , and a new field manager otherwise they will just be bad for a long, long time . The landscape in the NL West has changed dramatically. It is absolutely impossible for them to be competitive given the direction they’re going in
It would take Cain….Hundley….and Hill to net a return of a dog turd in a paper bag….they are useless and no team should trade for them….Nunez has value as does Cueto obviously….this team has been the luckiest team in professional sports over the past several seasons….winning with garbage players that nobody else wanted….they sign a turd and Bochy turns him into gold for the year….3 lucky WS titles as possibly the weakest team to win a WS….they are doomed and I saw this coming a few years ago….no farm studs to net them a star….old OF and only 2 good Starting Pitchers….for them to contend again I think Crawford needs to be moved….he nets them a couple good prospects and Arroyo steps in….just saying….they are in for a long haul as the Dodgers….Dbacks and Rockies are all better than them and the Padres are ahead of them as far as rebuilding….I can see a few 4th and 5th place finishes in the near future if they don’t do something quick….I knew this was coming but they exceeded my expectations as I through this was coming 2-3 years ago….they just keep exceeding expectations as the luckiest team in professional sports….but it looks like their luck ran out….lol
Pretty sure the 2014 royals, bumgarner and the rest of the mlb disagree with “it was all luck”…….
Pretty sure in 2010 Matt Cain and Brian Wilson were pitching lights out….
2012….Sweep! Nuff said!
One word: CLUTCH!
Every WS champ has some luck involved in their winning it. That is, without doubt, one of the ingredients necessary to winning it all. No team wins it all on pure luck. And absolutely no team will ever win 3 WS titles over a short span of time on luck. That concept is absurd in the extreme, and sounds like it’s coming from someone whose dislike for the Giants is clouding their objectivity.
I am a dodger fan. I hate the giants. But you don’t “get lucky” 3 times in 5 years. The team is pretty well run, much to my chagrin. They have hit a dry spot and may be there til they figure out how without selling everyone and everything. But luck had nothing to do with those 3 WS titles.
Shark is nowhere near his contract value….Pence is past his prime and injury prone….not worth his contract either….no reinforcements coming that will make a difference and they are in a tough division so like I said….I saw this coming years ago but nobody believed me….I am also the guy that said the Indians would be good soon (that was 3-4 years ago)….I also said that the Twins were on the rise soon….(that was 2 years ago)….so far my predictions have unfolded nicely….I also predicted the Cubs success but that one may be too obvious to claim…I think every “baseball expert” saw that coming….
“Shark is nowhere near his contract value…” I have to disagree. He hasn’t been exactly lights out, but they’re not paying for a lights out pitcher. The comparables are Jordan Zimmermann and Mike Leake. Same FA class, same sort of mid-rotation arm, and salaries are all within range. Samardzija has been slightly better than Leake since signing. Zimmermann on the other hand is the only not providing value anywhere near his contract. But for what the Giants signed Samardzija for is pretty much the going rate these days for a mid-rotation arm.
Given the fact they have a lot of veterans and a pretty barren farm it makes sense that they should start to rebuild but not necessarily a full scale fire sale this deadline/offseason. Maybe something along the lines of taking the best offers for Samardzija and Nunez at the deadline and try to flip Pence/Span this offseason to whoever is in need of outfield help and misses out on top OF free agents. Then hope Cueto opts into the remainder of his contract and trade him next July at peak value. Assuming they draft well in the next 2-3 years (starting today and presumably with higher picks than in previous years) the farm should be in a much better spot and give them some difficult decisions whether to make another run for it with Posey and MadBum leading the way or try to shop Posey and MadBum to finalize the core of the next long term contending club.
Cueto hasn’t pitched well, don’t think he will opt out.
It was a bad start and the rest has been the same bad.
Pitching Rotation is ok. MadBum, Cueto, Shark and Moore are a good 4some. I would rather just have Blach instead of Cain after this year! I said it controversially after Cain’s Perfect game to sell him, in my mind that was his ceiling, and time has proved that to be true.
Need new blood in Outfield! All spots. I would rather hustle a few teams out of their mid range OBP prospects. Drury type player (for example) or a JBJ type player. I am listing types of players, and not actually Drury or JBJ. They would be though to get from their respective teams I know.
The smartest thing Sabean did was not overthink the draft and took Posey and Lincecum when other teams passed. He also made astute first round high school picks in Bumgarner and Cain.
Past that, a lot of the Giants World Series success was based on random luck by players like Cody Ross (a player the Giants didn’t even want, they just wanted to block him as a waiver claim) and Marco Scutaro, as well as a bullpen that gave up zero in the post season.
What might really hamper the Giants going forward is the ease with which they gave out no trade clauses in long term deals. Did Brandon Crawford really need one to sign a long term deal? Pence? Samardzija to most all teams?
Posey would seem like someone that would bring on a bidding war during the off season to rebuild. But he, again, has a full no trade. Who knows how open he is to moving to a different team. The Red Sox seem like a team that could use him, with a GM that is more than willing to deal top prospects for established MLB talent. What if Posey just doesn’t want to go there?
Sabean & Evans better start drafting and retaining some exceptional talent so the Giants can reload for another run in a few years. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cueto opts out after 2017. Baumgarner, frustrated with mediocre offense and a shaky bullpen will not sign an extension and after the next two team option years will walk after 2019. Posey is tall for a catcher and the years of crouching will soon take its toll on his legs and knees, necessating a change of position – but who replaces him behind the plate? When/who was the last top caliber OF the Giants have produced? What’s wrong in the scouting and developmental ranks within the organization? Any organization worth its salt should have the ability to add one prospect each year to the mlb roster. What about it, Brian & Bobby?
I think they are screwed. An aging MLB roster with not much improvement with most of the players and a sub-par minor league system. Every Giants fan seems to be counting on Arroyo, a non-top 100 prospect, a .270, 2 WAR player if he makes it.
“When/who was the last top caliber OF the Giants have produced?”
Chili Davis (MLB debut 1981).
The giants farm system hasn’t been known for outfielders for a long time.
I thought the last incarnation of the Phillies was the bleakest in terms of turnaround time for a rebuild, but the Giants may have them beat. No farm system, too many no trade clauses, and overpriced & underproductive veterans that won’t bring much of a return. SF may have no choice but to just wait for the existing big $$$ contracts to expire.
The Giants have needed luck to win all 3….calls in their favor and hits from scrubs that no other team wanted…..to beat teams that were far superior….that is lucky….for a team that prides itself on starting pitching during their run because they had a weak lineup….how come #2 starter at the time is a .500 pitcher….lol
The Giants are done and I saw this coming years ago….time to retool while they have one of the best managers in baseball if not the best….Bochy out-managed every playoff opponent….I am not saying they suck….I am saying that they were never the best team….they were the luckiest team….every break went their way….good pitching and weak lineup describes half the league….their were teams like the Phillies that had better lineup and pitching but couldn’t beat Bochy….I will say this….if Bochy managed the Phillies with the team they had….they would have won the WS 2-3 years straight….
Bring in some young talent
I would like to know if anyone else think that giants catchers and manager is problem? how can all 13-15 pitcher on giants be bad even cy candidate. maybe its more coaching pitcher and manager need a new philosophy and more sabernetics , shift on defense. Need more speed in outfield.. Yes I feel they will get worse before they get better because they are old team and getting older, with large contracts that are not trade able do to year and large amounts…