Matt Kemp has been such a boost to the Braves lineup that Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution doesn’t see the team shopping Kemp as a deadline trade chip. Kemp is 32, is a limited defensive outfielder and has a hefty remaining salary owed through the 2019 season, yet Bradley feels the veteran has made himself a near-indispensable part of the roster. Kemp has been outstanding since joining the Braves last season, including a .345/.381/.608 slash line and 10 homers in 181 PA this year. Bradley also notes that Freddie Freeman’s production improved with Kemp hitting behind him, which gives Kemp even more value.
Some notes from around the NL East…
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson said there wasn’t any new updates on Yoenis Cespedes’ DL situation, which leads the New York Post’s Adam Rubin to doubt whether Cespedes will be able to return to action this week. Cespedes’ rehab stint for a hamstring injury was interrupted by some soreness in his long bothersome right quad muscle, and he has yet to resume full running, though he has been jogging. Alderson had previously said that Cespedes could potentially return for DH duty when the Mets are in Texas for an interleague series with the Rangers this week, though that timeline seems tenuous at this point.
- Also from Rubin, he reports that the Mets “aren’t likely” to go after relievers Bobby Parnell and Ernesto Frieri. The two right-handers recently opted out of minor league deals (Parnell with the Royals, Frieri with the Yankees) and are now free agents. Parnell, of course, has a notable history with the Mets, pitching for the club from 2008-15 and serving as the team’s closer in 2013.
- Though rookie Koda Glover has looked excellent as the Nationals’ closer, Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post argues that the Nats should still pursue an experienced ninth-inning man before the trade deadline. Glover is still an unproven commodity with some durability questions and the Nationals’ bullpen is lacking in overall depth, plus Glover could still excel as a setup man down the stretch.
- The Nationals’ pen is also one of many topics covered in a reader mailbag piece from Jorge Castillo and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, with Castillo feeling that the Nats will indeed obtain a reliever at the deadline. It may not necessarily be a big-name closer, however, given how Glover continues to perform over the next two months.
- From that same mailbag item, Janes writes that there don’t appear to be any extension talks between Dusty Baker and the Nationals, though that could be a function of ownership’s stance against making lengthy commitments to managers. It seems that both sides want to continue the relationship and all signs point towards Baker returning in 2018 (assuming the Nats continue to win, of course), though Janes notes that the team will have to pay market price for Baker given the success the Nationals have enjoyed in his tenure.
- Despite the Phillies’ struggles, GM Matt Klentak reiterated to MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki and other media that the team hasn’t altered its approach to promoting its top minor league position players. The likes of J.P. Crawford, Roman Quinn, Rhys Hoskins and others at Triple-A could provide the Phils with a boost or at least give the youngsters some experience at the big league level as part of the team’s overall rebuilding process. The Phillies aren’t going to promote their prospects, however, until there is a clear opportunity for regular playing time and until each player is fully prepared for the majors. “To expose players to the big league level before they’re ready isn’t doing them any favors, nor is it doing the organization any favors. We have to constantly balance that,” Klentak said.
Ted
Kemp has been worth 0.8 bWAR in 97 games since joining the Braves. Fangraphs (as the article uses) is much kinder, but I’m not convinced he won’t regress a bit this year. At best he’s probably a 3 WAR player this year. Is that worth $19MM for a team like the Braves?
If someone will take him based on his slash line I’d suggest the Braves jump on it. Then again, every team has expertise with advanced analytics now, so it’s not like anyone will be fooled by that gaudy .345 average.
chri
Have to imagine at least a couple AL teams will be interested in Kemp, they could hide his defensive struggles by having him DH
BlueSkyLA
Are they also not being fooled by his .345/.381/.608/.989 slash line?
Sign all the Cubans
Kemp certainly looks better now than he has anytime since 2011, when he got screwed outof the MVP by that PED-user, Ryan Braun.
That all said, his current .406 BABIP and .261 ISO are both about 60 points above his career average, and I would say, completely unsustainable.
He’s hot right now, but much of it is fueled by good luck, and he’s absolutely going to regress.
Braves should move him now, as his value will never be higher. Dude was in serious decline, and this hot streak should be considered fool’s gold.
thegreatcerealfamine
Maybe,just maybe he’s finally healthy. The Yanks will trade Carter for him!
Sign all the Cubans
He might be healthy, but that won’t turn him into one of the greatest players of all-time, which is what he would be if continued with those BABIP and ISO numbers. Ruth and Bonds didn’t even hit like that.
jd396
Does anyone actually think anyone is going to sustain that BABIP?
BlueSkyLA
Does anyone actually think he needs to?
Sign all the Cubans
Hmm…Similar strikeout rate to what he posted in his career (albeit lower) along with the lowest walk rate of his career.
Yes, I would think that he’ll need to BABIP .350-.400 to NOT regress that what he normally is.
I know, you’re probably still pissed that the Dodgers traded Kemp for the second best catcher in baseball, but I’d rather have Joc in CF and Grandal behind the plate, rather than Kemp OBP’ing .312 and butchering plays in the OF.
BlueSkyLA
I base his “normal” on his career line of .288/.341/.494/.835.
You know not. That was basically a desperate and lousy argument.
Sign all the Cubans
You know even less.
Kemp has hit .280 exactly once in the past five years, though I will concede his OPS has been closer to the .835 career number, but is trending the wrong way due to his increasingly bad OBP.
And how is this a desperate argument? Does he not have a substandard OBP? Does he not walk much? Is he not a defensive liability?
I’m not saying the guy is worthless, but he’s not what you people think he is, either,
outinleftfield
So if his BABIP and ISO decline to his career averages, then he will put up a .280/.300/.490/.790 slash line this season. Pair that with the worst LF defense in the NL and you get a player that is barely above replacement level.
BlueSkyLA
Sorry, I don’t know any you people.
Your argument is desperate and lousy because you suppose that I have some hidden agenda for simply posting his career batting line. Stick to what I have actually said and maybe we can have a conversation. Invent nonsense to justify yourself and it isn’t worth the effort.
jayceincase
What’s his exit velocity?
Phillies2017
According to fangraphs market value formula ($8m=1WAR) Even at $19 mil he would be worth it.
thegreatcerealfamine
Braves aren’t paying his full salary.
Brixton
Yes they are…
Logan10braves
No, they’re not. The Padres sent $10.5MM in the Kemp deal.
thegreatcerealfamine
Exactly plus I believe the Dodgers are covering parts.
thegreatcerealfamine
No they’re not!
Brixton
Ok, so they’re still paying like 15Mish a year for him..
padresfan
Wrong
Padres sent no cash
Doyuers sent some money
But the braves are paying him 19 mil a year and the doyuers are paying him 3 mil = 22 mil
outinleftfield
The article on this site said the Padres sent the $10.5 million the Dodger’s were paying of Kemp’s remaining salary. The Padres took on Olivera’s $28.5 million contract and the Braves took on a little over $18.5 million per season of Kemp’s salary.
thegreatcerealfamine
Yes they did! They sent 3.5 million for each year of 2017-19 of which they got from LA! Then there’s the Padres completely assuming all of Oliveras salary..the math what the Braves had owed Olivera average for 17-19(9.5 mil) you minus that from Kemps salary 18 a year and the Braves pay him 8.5 million a year..Google the Padres Braves trade! Looks like the Padres are the Doyers!
Jon429
Exactly how are the Braves going to replace Kemp if they deal him and still be able to compete in 1-2 years? They have no power hitting OFs in the system, and very little power hitters at any position. None higher than A ball.
Sign all the Cubans
You think Kemp will be the same guy he’s been the first 50+ games of this year in 2019 when he’s 34?
You must be a Braves fan.
Jon429
No I don’t, I don’t think his current performance is going to continue, but at $18.5 million a year for 30 HR power is affordable when you don’t have anything in the minors to call up and replace him with. It’s common sense.
And you must be a smart-ass.
Sign all the Cubans
Yes, I am a smartass, but not trying to be right now.
Kemp has hit 30+ HR exactly once in the past SIX SEASONS (last year), which is most likely an outlier.
He’s most likely more of a 23-25 HR guy who doesn’t otherwise get on base and plays sub-replacement-level defense.
If you think that’s a sweet deal, then hey, hope the Braves hold onto him. If he doesn’t regress and ends up a 3-WAR player this year, then you gambled and won.
My guess is, he regresses hard in the second half and never again has the value he does now..
Jon429
I understand that’s the risk, but you continue to ignore my original question. Who do the Braves replace him with? They have nothing, and I mean nothing in the minors in the way of power hitting outfielders that are anywhere close to ready. Mid season trades like this don’t usually happen unless there’s a prospect knocking on the door. And don’t say it doesn’t matter because they are a losing team anyway, the FO is not going to tank the team in the inaugural season at Suntrust park. Just not going to happen.
shosho
he was a gamble that hit well for two months. pretty sure they weren’t banking on him for 2021.
squish
Acuna is at AA and some people think he could be up in September for a cup of coffee
roberty
Braves have Dustin Peterson at AAA, he’s coming off a hamate injury which is known to sap a hitter’s power for a while but he hit 38 doubles and 12 HRs at Mississippi last year, which is one of the most extreme pitchers parks in minor league baseball. They also have Ronald Acuna, who at 19 is hitting .396/.446/.626 in AA. Austin Riley hit 20 HR last year and has 8 HRs 204 AB this year. He is currently a 3B but he could end up in a corner OF spot with Kevin Maitan not too far behind him. The Braves moved Alex Jackson back to catcher after acquiring him from the M’s but he could ultimately end up in the OF. He has hit 10 HR and 12 2B in 153 AB in A+ this season. Travis Demeritte is an amazing defensive infielder and hit 28 HR last year. He might be blocked by others players for an infield job and certainly has the speed and power to stick in the OF if the Braves decide to try him out there or convert him to some kind of super super utility player. The Braves strength is pitching prospects, but they have some decent power prospects in the system as well.
outinleftfield
Kemp’s .406 BABIP means his offensive numbers will definitely regress and significantly. He puts the ball in play 73% of his PA, so we can expect his BA/OBP/OPS to drop 50-70 points. He also has an ISO that is 60 points above his career averages so we can expect that to regress at least some as well. Combine that with OF defense that is the worst in the NL and you have a guy that may put up a 1.0 fWAR this season when all is said and done. If they can get anything at all for him without picking up any salary, then the Braves need to move him.
Brixton
Hoskins is blocked, Quinn is hurt, Williams is mediocre, Crawford is playing real bad, Alfaro is struggling and can’t walk, Cozens is mediocre.
The Phillies might lose 100 this year
outinleftfield
They are fighting with the Padres for the #1 overall pick.
CubsFanForLife
I really hope JP Crawford’s recent improvement at AAA is a sign of a breakthrough. He hasn’t looked like a top prospect in a while.
baines03
Freddie Freeman improving had nothing to do with Kemp hitting behind him.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Yep. It’s not like Freeman wasn’t already one of the best hitters in the NL before the Braves traded for Kemp. It’d just be plain stupid of them to not let an interested AL team have him and his contract.
Sign all the Cubans
Kemp is benefiting quite a bit from luck. If his BABIP regresses to what he’s been, you’ll see the same declining player he’s been the last few years: a .270 hitter that doesn’t walk, but will hit 20-25 dingers.
Unload him to an AL team, if you can get a decent return.
chieftoto
Ummmm, no dude.
Jon429
So…it was just coincidence then that Freeman’s production shot up as soon as Kemp joined the team last summer?
Sign all the Cubans
I said nothing about that,
davidcoonce74
Freeman’s production shot up like a month before Kemp joined the team, actually.
Jon429
Yes it did, but he was hitting like 177 early in the season last year, not hard to improve on that.
Freeman’s numbers pre-Kemp in 2016: .307/.382/.568
w/ Kemp batting cleanup: .333/.453/.667
Sportfeen69
The mets are so cheap SMFH
metseventually
Worst owners in baseball.
mikeyank55
Take the trade in your name option Mets…..
It’s a two year rehabilitation process where in year one you detox from the make believe mojo of the worst performing team in baseball. During this time you will be allowed to watch AAA games, which is far better than the Mets major or minor league teams.
Depending on your results you will be sent an invitation from either the Phil’s, Orioles or Yankees franchises, though don’t get your hopes up too high for the latter, given your well documented support on social media.
Regardless, it’s a journey worth beginning. Rehabilitation will be rewarding every step of the way. Learning to criticize the Metsies will be liberating and you are virtually guaranteed of being a happier, stress reduced baseball fan.
mj-2
All these advanced analytics…….Let’s pretend that Kemp is just “lucky” right now. Does it matter? Last I checked luck still counts. I understand everyone is just trying to project future performance of Kemp and wonder if he’s worth it.
The way I see it Braves could use a little bit of luck and if it’s found it’s way to Kemp I say hang on to it instead trading it away. Sometimes you need luck in baseball. Personally I say hold on to Kemp until his contract ends and let the luck run as it may. If you want to trade an outfielder it needs to be Markakis.
Sign all the Cubans
Not sure where you’re going with the “advanced analytics” comment. This data serve to illustrate why we’re seeing what we are from a given player, and what to expect going forward.
I’m not judging whether luck is “good” or “bad,” but rather, how it’s impacted that slash line of his. The numbers still count, but don’t be surprised if he ends up hitting .270/.300/.500 before it’s all over.
BlueSkyLA
Not sure where you get those numbers. If he regressed to his career performance, his line would be a not-at-all-shabby .288/.341/.494/.835. Don’t know why anyone would predict much less than that for a healthy Matt Kemp (especially the .300 OBP, way below his career).
Sign all the Cubans
Never said he would regress to his career numbers. My guess was based on his more recent seasons.
His career numbers are heavily influenced by what he did when he was 25-27 years old and a borderline elite offensive player. He’s been THAT guy for 50+ games, but do you really think he’s an MVP candidate again?
BlueSkyLA
I never said he was an MVP candidate. Again, please stick to what I have actually said.
outinleftfield
Luck doesn’t last a 162 game season. His BABIP and ISO will regress over the season. That is why the Braves should trade him while he is being lucky instead of waiting for that luck to go away. They are not going to contend this season, so no reason to hold on to a guy on the wrong side of 30 that is costing them $18.5 million per year.
outinleftfield
Kemp is so bad defensively that as his offensive numbers regress his value will balance out to under 1.0 WAR by the end of the season. The Braves are going nowhere this season, they should move him while he is hot at the plate.
Jon429
They won’t tank the team in the first season in a new ballpark just to get a lottery ticket or two.
terry g
I’m not seeing any American league team that needs an upgrade at DH to give much at all for Kemp.. Without that the, Braves wouldn’t likely get much for him, especially if you want to off load his entire salary.. He’ll regress but may not for the rest of this year. Heath and luck are a big part of the game you can’t predict when those will turn south but you know they will at some point..
TDKnies 2
Right thing to say regarding Kemp regardless of what your actual plans are. No harm in playing a little hard to get as long as you’re not playing hard enough to scare people off. As for trading him, I’d definitely go for it if you can get a decent prospect. As good as he’s playing right now, the team sucks anyway and I doubt he’ll be this good in a few years when the rest of the players finally catch up (if we’re lucky) to make the team a contender.
sammysosa
as a padre fan, i think all matt kemp is good for is sucking my ass
twpguy
Yeah Matt Klentak, do another Ryan Howard and wait til he’s 30 to call him up. You expect fans to believe you know when they’re ready ? I don’t trust you at all . I doubt you’d know when their ready !
bravesfan
I’m on the boat where the braves should trade him and trade him now while is value is about as high as it’s gonna get. I don’t think he will maintain this, and someone will overpay for it right now. When he’s gone, convert Adams into a LF or something… or bring up some prospects… I think we will be ok. I love kemp, I really hope he continues to hit like this for a braves for as long as possible… but realistically, he isn’t gonna maintain it and I think we can get a solid return for him right now..
Himmy1
How about exposing my eye sight to this crap the Phillies puts on the field every day! These aren’t even quality AAA players. Teaches losing and robs rans of enjoyment and their hard earned money. Going to be another 5 years or more until the phillies are going.
MakeATLGreatAgain
Kemps just happy to be playing here, he’s motivated because he’s playing on his favorite team. He decided to get in shape and actually try. He may regress some, but I think he can still stay very useful.