It’s mid-May, so the likelihood of a significant trade going down in the near-term is pretty low. After all, even the clubs buried in the cellars of their respective divisions will be waiting on further results before deciding their course of action this summer.
Still, though, we’re reaching the point where clubs will begin weighing their options to buy or sell at the deadline. And we’ve seen a reasonably significant amount of action, with injuries and performances changing expectations for some players and teams.
While there’s still a lot to be learned, then, it’s a good time to make some predictions. As is usually the case, a variety of teams are off to surprisingly slow starts. Some of these will likely bounce back and at least enter the Wild Card picture. Others will fade out of contention and face tough choices on key veterans.
The question for MLBTR’s readership, then, is which of the teams that entered the year anticipating contention will likely end up being so buried that they’re forced to sell at the trade deadline (if not sooner).
In defining our slate of poll options, there are some necessarily arbitrary lines of demarcation. In this case, I’ve made wholly subjective assessments of which teams entered the year with realistic expectations of contending — meaning, at least remaining in the postseason picture for the vast bulk of the season. And I’ve then drawn the line for consideration at four games below .500 entering today’s action.
Select which of the following teams you expect to end up selling this summer (check all that apply; link for app users):
metseventually 2
Mets.
Bruce, Reed, Walker.
They won’t pull in huge hauls unfortunately, but should do enough to allow for a small retool before The Great Firing of Every Single Coach on the Mets 2017.
chri
Duda is also a pending free agent, and with Dominc Smith in AAA right now, I do not see the Mets making much of an effort to resign him
Larry David's Joe Pepitone Jersey
Duda has no value, they’d be lucky to get a moldy sock for him.
hojostache
Duda has incredibly similar career stats as Chris Davis (BAL). 120 OPS+/121 OPS+. His OPS’ing .884 this season (in limited play since he just came back). He can put up 30HR and is an average to slightly above average 1B glove.
If you want to trade a guy/1B for a moldy sock…A-Gon would be the guy so far this season.
rct
Duda absolutely has value. Power-hitting lefty with a career OPS+ of 121.. He can’t seem to stay healthy, anymore, though. One could easily see a team trading some semi-valuable pieces for him if he can be healthy for the next couple of months.
ryanw-2
Suddenly it’s the coaches’ fault? Lol
hojostache
Terry has been Terryble when it has come to his bullpen usage. He is known for burning guys out from overuse. A couple weeks ago the Mets had the top 4 guys in appearances, that isn’t a good thing.
His insistence to stick with Veterans over the past few years has also been problematic. Granderson sucks this year, yet he keeps trotting him out. Once Cespedes comes back it better be Ces, Conforto, Bruce in the OF. Lagares and Grandy are 4/5 outfielders now.
I blame Sandy for failing to upgrade ANYWHERE on the roster during the off-season. He didn’t have a great plan to replace Wright and expecting Jose to play everywhere as a super-sub was wishful thinking. Thank God for TJ Rivera and Rene Rivera…as they are two bats that most didn’t expect would contribute. I liked TJ, but never thought he’d get a fair shot bc of Terry.
jakec77
Didn’t have a great plan to replace Wright?- going into spring training how many teams would you have said had 2 back up infielders as good as Reyes and Flores? (with TJ Rivera and Rosario at AAA) Who were they going to get?
Conforto was terrible last year, Granderson was slightly less terrible. So, yes, at the beginning of the year you go with the slightly less terrible player, especially when he is a clubhouse leader and has a history of success. Conforto has been playing basically everyday since April 18, how fast did you want Collins to pull the trigger on that move?
The Mets are off to a rough start (4 games out of a wild card) because they have given up the 2nd most runs in the league. Show of hands for who predicted that before the season.
Matt Pilatzke
Sandy’s hands are tied. The Mets are still overcoming the fallout of Bernie Madoff. You can see it how the Mets spend pre Madoff versus post Madoff. So no outrageous spending on Sandy’s part. Then there’s the trade market. Who were the Mets going to go get? Todd Frazier from the White Sox? Hahn would have asked for Rosario, Smith and one of Sandy’s grandchildren. Mets weren’t one piece away with all the ?s surrounding their arms. Staying put was probably the best choice.
Larry David's Joe Pepitone Jersey
Sellers without anything to sell.
thegreatcerealfamine
W
ExileInLA 2
I’d like to see the Mets package Lagares’ deal with either Reed or Walker; that $15.5mm won’t age well for 18-19.
This is a big roster turnover winter for NYM – Bruce, Duda, Grandy, Reed, Reyes, Salas and Walker, all can (and except for Reed, need to) go.
Walker needs to be replaced with a high OBP 2B, to play with Rosario, Smith and Cabrera in 2018. TJ is fine as a backup, and a veteran glove backup type should be found for less $$ than Wilmer will probably get in arb.
Cespedes and Conforto are the corner OFs; we need a CF. Nimmo and some FA can be backups.
Rene Rivera is doing really well at C, but Travis dArnaud can’t play if he’s always hurt.
Say Hey Now Kid
I agree almost completely with that whole plan. No one will take Lagares’ salary so are probably stuck but he’s fine as a backup.
Not much on the market for infield or outfield after this year so they still have to hold off until 2019 when the market is saturated.
I say they make do with a lineup like you mentioned but get 1-2 durable veteran arms and stop living and dying by a young rotation no mater how talented
beauvandertulip
The Giants. With a rotation that isn’t locked. A bullpen that can’t perform, and a very strong NL west. People like Hunter Pence, Span, Nick Hundley, and Eduardo Nunez probably won’t last in the organization for much longer.
Matt Pilatzke
No one will touch Pence or Span with their contracts. Only thing Giants have left to sell is Nunez, possibly Hundley, possibly Will Smith.
rct
Pence only has one season left on his deal. Why wouldn’t anyone touch him? If he started playing as well as he has for his whole career (his 2017 BABIP is well below his career BABIP), someone would trade for him.
CCCTL
Because he’s a mid-30’s outfielder who’s not been hitting well, has a weak throwing arm, is a known injury risk, and without question is in the last half of his career.
An expectation that he’ll suddenly go back to his prime performance numbers is not reasonable, and there will almost assuredly be better options at the trade deadline.
CCCTL
… aaaaaaand he’s on the DL with a hamstring strain. Again.
“Known injury risk”.
rkumar
Will Smith is out for he year bc he had TJ surgery at the start of the year
fisher40
Sounds like the Brewers got rid of him at just the right time. Then again the Brewers got Bickford and susac who can’t find the field because of substance abuse and a hamstring strain
norcalblue
I certainly agree that the Giants would love to dump each of these guys you list for prospects. Pence has a player-friendly contract and that will diminish the return he would otherwise produce. Span and Hundley are just not that valuable. Nunez may well have the most value, along with Cueto, who you do not place on list.
I believe that the Giants will not consider trading Belt and Crawford. They each are slightly above league average players at their respective positions and the team got favorable contract extensions for them both. Posey and Bumgarner are elite players on very team-friendly contracts as well and I see no way Giants offer them. If Moore can put together some solid starts in the next 6 weeks he could be dealt; but, on the other hand, if he does that the Giants would probably want to keep him too as he has a very team-friendly contract.
thethrill
Typical Dodger fan saying Crawford is a slightly above average SS.
As for being sellers, the Giants will have a tough time with that. I don’t think they view themselves as re-builders but as a team that is only a few pieces short. I’m guessing they will want a MLB ready OF in a trade and no contender is going to trade a starting OF. So you may see a Nunez, Hundley type package or even maybe Cueto for a prospect.
I voted KC, with all the talk of only bringing back 1 of the 3, they should trade them before they loose them to FA.
norcalblue
Over the last three years Crawford’s slash line: .259 .329 .424
That doesn’t stand out as anything but average and he was in his prime years. His next three years will not be close to those numbers. This year he is at:: .250 .276 .413.
Crawford is among the top five defensive SS in the game. He is not in Simmons’ or Lindor’s league; but he leads the next tier.
I would much prefer Lindor, Seager, Corea, Turner, Machado, Bogaerts, Russell, Andrus. He is in the next tier and has seen his best days. Given his age and performance level, I think he is slightly above average–soon to be very average.
norcalblue
Over the last three years Crawford’s slash line: .259 .329 .424
That doesn’t stand out as anything but average and he was in his prime years. His next three years will not be close to those numbers. This year he is at: .250 .276 .413.
Crawford is among the top five defensive SS in the game. He is not in Simmons’ or Lindor’s league; but he leads the next tier.
I would much prefer Lindor, Seager, Correa, Turner, Machado, Bogaerts, Russell, Andrus. He is in the next tier and has seen his best days. Given his age and performance level, I think he is slightly above average–soon to be very average.
dodgerfan711
There is nothing special about crawfords offense. His defense is spectacular but the offense isnt up there with the top SS in the game.
davidcoonce74
Crawford is a terrific shortstop. Of course you’d rather have a bunch of guys 8 years younger and better. That’s a bit of a silly comp. Crawford has been a slightly above average offensive shortstop with very good defense, but he’s done it for a really long time. There’s real value in that when half the teams in baseball have terrible shortstops.
thethrill
Correa, Lindor Seagar is the top tier. Machado is 3B. Look up top SS in baseball and majority of them will have Crawford 4-6. Crawford has been hurt and just came back from DL last week, he has 40-50 less AB’s then most SS.
Here are last 3 yrs stats from a few guys you listed, i prefer Crawford over all them for another 2 years then maybe not.
.259 .315 .340 .655 2.93 – Simmons
.235 .308 .386 .564 2.9 – Russell
.272 .316 .445 .761 1.5 – Turner
.260 .313 .435 .748 3.56 – Crawford
Bruin1012
The fact remains that over the last two years Crawford has been overall arguably the third best shortstop in the league. The only ones you have up there that have been better are Seager and Lindor from a War standpoint. Turner doesn’t have the time yet but will probably better as much as I like Bogaerts Crawford has been better the last two years as well. Andrus not even close and Russell not as good either. Calling him slightly above average is just a bad comment leave it at that.
davidcoonce74
These are players with vastly different skill sets, though.. Simmons is a defensive wiz who doesn’t contribute much with the bat. Russel has huge power for a shortstop and is a great defender but has contact issues. Turner is all speed but doesn’t walk. Crawford walks a bit, has a bit of power (he hits a lot of triples but that’s mostly because of his home park and that gap in right-center), plays fantastic defense. He’s a good baserunner but doesn’t steal bases. I think any of them are an asset to a team.
sportznut1000
most of the guys you listed are in their 2nd year and are the next wave of young premier shortstops so of course any team would prefer them. machado plays 3rd and then i dont think andrus is as good as crawford. any way you slice it though crawford is a top 7 shortstop. slightly above average would put him 10th-14th.
now on a seperate note. giants have never been sellers at the deadline. even when they should be. they got nothing for bonds, kent, jason schmidt etc when they left. giants have had some bad teams over last 20 years but the only guy i think giants traded to shed a salary for prospects or players was bengie molina. i might be missing someone but i cant recall them ever being sellers since the bonds era started. i dont see this year being any different
Bruin1012
What a silly comment about Brandon Crawford being slightly above average I’m not a Giants fan but do know he is well above average unless you consider 5 WAR shortstops slightly above average.
McGlynnandjuice
Same with Belt
BoldyMinnesota
Belt is only slightly above average for his position.
thethrill
As a Giants fan i have to agree, Belt is only slightly above average especially this year.. He has moments every year where he shows his top end potential but he also has huge slumps every year. I just want consistency, In his last 7 games he has 3 HR’s with .160 AVG.
Brixton
Pirates can sell Cole, Watson, Freese and Nova then become an elite farm
padresfan
Pirates are really contenders. They’re more of pretenders now.
padresfan
Are not
ryanw-2
More like bottom feeders. Selling for prospects means rebuild. And for a team with limited resources that means back to the bottom for the Pirates.
antonio bananas
except they have a solid group of young guys even if they trade all those. I wouldn’t trade Cole this year though. not unless it’s an insane return.
Retired NFL Player
Cole could arguably demand as big of a return as nearly any pitcher in baseball when you take into account age and controllable years and how good he is, while being extremely affordable. Then you will have the chance to extend him too. He would net the Pirates some mega prospects.
pepesilvia
Actually no they can’t. Back in the old days u could sell a player but them days are gone. You have to receive more then just cash now.
GeauxRangers
Rangers
Darvish, Lucroy, Gomez, Cashner, Ross, Napoli
padresfan
99% of teams will not trade for a catcher during the middle of the season… especially one that is a pending free agent
hojostache
I was surprised they weren’t on the list. They have a lot of talent, but they also have a bunch of guys in walk years that could bring back some pretty good talent.
sufferforsnakes
Is there supposed to be a list on here, because nothing is showing on my iPad?
Rollie's Mustache
Yes, there’s a poll. It doesn’t show up for me either using Chrome unless I load this page in an Incognito window. Meaning that it’s probably a browser extension we’re using that’s blocking the content.
Jeff Todd
Mobile users always need to follow a link for the poll … which I had forgotten to include. It’s there now.
sufferforsnakes
Thank you, sir.
timyanks
always? not me. iphone works great
Soxfan912
Only one I wouldnt say in Blue Jays.. They looked awful in April, but two weeks later they’re right in the hunt with Tulo and Donaldson coming back. AL East is tough this year if the Yankees can stay strong but the Red Sox look lost early on.
Tedder
Blue jays aren’t as strong as their recent win streak would indicate. They beat up on triple A pitching because the Mariners rotation is pretty much all on the DL. Doubt they maintain it in games against division rivals.
Luky Dan
Careful, Blue Jays rotation also decimated with 3 starters out, plus 3 marquee bats in triage. Our triple A starters managed to stifle a hot hitting lineup from Cleveland and Seattle (not exactly farm team ops). Watch out, the Jays are coming back.
jdgoat
I agree and I don’t think it’s my bias that makes me think like that. In 2015 they were also 17-21 and ended up winning the division. They’ve already gotten back into the wild card race and I am not sold on the Yankees youth being able to play like this for a full season or the Orioles lack of pitching depth.
Tedder
2015 AL east was weak as hell though, can’t say that this year. The true test will be when the Jays face the Yankees, Red Sox and O’s.
Ironman_4life
I can see the dodgers doing some damage even while in 1st place. They have an excess of position players a starter short of a deep playoff run
dodgerfan711
I would love to see the dodgers get an AL team to trade for cueto then aquire him. That would be quite the heist
Ironman_4life
Cueto would be great there. So would gerrit cole
wkkortas
Pirates should trade Watson–he’s replaceable, and someone will always convinces themselves to overpay for a closer. The Bucs should also be willing to be overwhelmed by an offer for Cole.
antonio bananas
trading Cutch/Freese/Watson is enough. return ’18/’19 with cole and taillon + all the current young guys with 1 more year of experience.
cubs starters will be a year older, same for molina/waino in stl.
InvalidUserID
Giants.
baseball10
Part of this is having desirable trade chips. Royals obviously top the list and pirates will look to get creative too
kiddhoff
Hmmm…..why arent the Cubs mentioned?
johncena2016
Don’t be stupid, they’ll be buying or standing pat.
thegreatcerealfamine
*stupid..that’s a bit harsh,perhaps he meant as buyers from the poll teams.
kiddhoff
Just joking. Cards fan. Its just great to see they have a losing record at this point.
degrom4mvp48
Because even though they’ve been disappointing they are built to win for at least 4-5 years. Young talent along with good veterans. It’s just been rough so far for them.
cardfan2011
I would have to guess Royals, Giants and Pirates as the three most likely to be sellers
degrom4mvp48
Mets, Pirates, Giants, Blue Jays, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Rangers
TheGreatTwigog
I object to the royals being called a supposed contender
BoldyMinnesota
That’s exactly what I thought
oriolesravenstimberwolves04
The Orioles won’t but they will collapse in the 2 years
BoldyMinnesota
That all depends what they do with Machado. Keep him and try to squeeze something out of this team or trade him and hope he canbring back enough to help them compete down the road
66TheNumberOfTheBest
The Pirates would be selling even if they were contending, for the record….see the Melancon deal last year.
Trading Cutch and Watson was always going to happen no matter what, but now they really should trade Cole, too. I read a few baseball writers spit balling what the Pirates could get from various pitching needy contenders and if they are even close to correct regarding the return, the Bucs must make the deal.
Taillon (assuming health) Nova, Keller, Bell, Meadows, Newman and what they get back in trades forms the next core.
Marte and Polanco are the wild cards. If they return to form, this is a retool and they can be competitive next year and contenders soon after. If they fail, it’s a rebuild.
mrmariner
Mariners should be sellers at this point being 9 games behind Houston and our top 4 starters on the DL. Our window was this year and next and this year appears to be a wash. It should be interesting to see if the Mariners begin to rebuild early as I believe they should.
ethanhickey
Dipoto has always been the GM to start a rebuild while contending. If we weren’t already in some sort of rebuild, Mike Montgomery would still be a Mariner, which would leave Zack Littell in Modesto without the need to go get Pazos. The window to win a World Series was this year and next year, sure. But our window to go over .500 isn’t closing. Guys like Miranda, Haniger, Gamel, Heredia, Vogelbach, Seager, Cano, Diaz, Vincent are all here for a while. And we have a lot of depth to cover up our losses before guys like O’Neill, Moore, Lewis, Niedert, and Povse are ready for the show.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
From those choices the Mets. Otherwise it will be the reds brewers dbacks rangers
All of those teams i can see selling. Maybe the cardinals as well. The cubs will get hot. Only a matter of time. And now Ian Happ is up and hopefully to stay. He will only help them
Solaris611
Giants fall in love with their players to a fault. They won’t trade anyone even if it makes sense.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Samardzija will be gone eirher in july or winter meetings. They’ll find a sucker team. Trade bad contract for bad contract..
Alstad
Jays
Francisco Liriano
Jason Grilli
Darwin Barney
Alstad
Thiughts6?
BSPORT
Boston should be sellers by end of year. DD dumped the farm and not a lot to show for it.
Bruin1012
Yea that Sale was a bad get lol. Boston hasn’t even played well yet wait till they hit there stride I fully expect them to still win the division they won’t be sellers.