Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has long been an interesting player, with outstanding glovework making him a regular at short despite an often-lagging bat. But he began to show signs of life at the plate in 2015, suggesting the possibility of more. Now, at 31 years of age — with free agency beckoning at season’s end — Cozart is playing like an All-Star.
Perhaps this surge would now be less surprising had it not been for a devastating knee injury that disrupted Cozart’s ’15 campaign after just 53 games. At that point, he was slashing .258/.310/.459 and had swatted nine home runs. Upon returning last year, Cozart fell back a bit in overall productivity, but still managed 16 long balls and produced a 91 wRC+ — good enough to make him a 2.5 fWAR player.
Cozart has opened the 2017 season on a hot streak. It’s still early — he has only taken 97 plate appearances — so it’s best to temper expectations. But perhaps there’s more to it than just noting the surge and cautioning on the sample size. He’s hitting a BABIP-aided .329 and delivering an excellent isolated slugging mark (.220) despite just one home run. That’s all promising enough. But Cozart is also walking at heretofore-unseen levels. He entered the year with just a 5.6% career walk rate, but has nearly tripled that (to 14.4%) in the early going, leaving him with a robust .423 on-base percentage .
As ever, it’s fair to wonder whether that apparent improvement can be sustained. Cozart is approaching, but hasn’t quite reached, the stabilization point for walk rate, and even then you’d have to maintain a healthy degree of skepticism and bear in mind his longer track record. But this is the third straight year that Cozart has shown growth in his ability to take free passes. And there are other signs of a real change that shouldn’t be ignored. Cozart’s swing percentage sits at just under forty percent, well shy of his 46.5% career mark. And he’s not just watching more strikes go by: Cozart has offered at pitches out of the zone just 22.7% of the time, a significant reduction from his 29.4% career average. When he does swing, Cozart is missing just 5.6% of the time; again, that’s a significant change (7.3% career SwStr%).
While his strikeout rate is also up a bit, that’s an easy sacrifice to make when these are the results. It would be silly to expect Cozart to continue walking with quite this frequency, but even a bump up to league average (8.8%) would represent a major change in his profile. That might support a league-average on-base percentage. Combine that with the fact that Cozart has posted above-average isolated slugging marks over the past three seasons, and you’re suddenly looking at a real offensive threat.
Let’s not forget: the real calling card here is defense. Cozart doesn’t get talked about as one of the game’s best fielders, but metrics suggest he is. We’re not looking at a small sample here, either. Since he began receiving regular playing time in 2012, Cozart has been an elite defender. While he has traditionally rated as merely an average baserunner, the glove is good enough that Cozart doesn’t have to hit all that much to be an asset.
So, the arrow is pointing up right now, though there’s obviously a long season ahead. Cozart did miss time last year with ongoing issues relating to his 2015 knee surgery; while it seems he’s healthy now, he’ll need to stay that way. And teams will be watching closely to see just what portion of Cozart’s improvements at the plate can be maintained throughout the course of a long season.
As we watch to see how things progress — gauging not only Cozart’s open-market value but also his trade value this summer — there are some markers to bear in mind. Come August, Cozart will reach 32 years of age — just as J.J. Hardy did back in 2014 before signing a three-year, $40MM extension with the Orioles that kept him from reaching the open market. Hardy was an even more extreme version of Cozart at the plate, and was a similarly excellent defender, so seems a highly relevant comp. Though Hardy had a clearer record of success to that point, though, he also hadn’t shown anything like Cozart’s current changes at the plate.
If you see Cozart as a slightly above-average hitter, whose power is sometimes offset by questionable on-base numbers and patches of streakiness, then you’re looking at something like the profile of Ian Desmond, who just landed $70MM over five years. True, Cozart is a middling baserunner, while Desmond is one of the game’s best. But the situation is flipped on defense, where Cozart’s high-level play at short outeighs Desmond’s versatility. But the best aspirational comp is perhaps Brandon Crawford, whose blend of solid plate discipline and pop with otherworldly defense has made him a star (and earned him a six-year, $75MM extension).
Of course, it’s far from clear that Cozart will be able to score anything approaching those kinds of years and dollars, particularly given his age and the still-unknown level of demand. But he’s beginning to make out an argument that he’s just as valuable a player as some of his better-known peers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
He’s the epitome of “solid player” to me. That’s valuable in today’s game. Maybe a 3 year deal worth 30 million?
“Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has long been an interesting player, with outstanding glovework making him a regular at short despite an often-lagging bat. But he began to show signs of life at the plate in 2015, suggesting the possibility of more. Now, at 31 years of age — with free agency beckoning at season’s end — Cozart is playing like an All-Star.”
When are we gonna talk about how some sort of steroid is back in baseball. Guys are blasting balls outta the bark like it is 1998, dosent seem to be a “cool” topic though. Cozart is most likely not the best example with his one home run, but i figured I would bring it up.
On Cozart though, it will be interesting to see if the reds can get anything for him this season
Unfortunately for the Reds most teams seem to be set at shortstop already. The team with the most obvious need at short is my Padres and they are rebuilding just like the Reds so if they are interested in Cozart they won’t trade for him they’ll just wait until the offseason and sign him.
Nats could end up being interested. Pick up cozart move turner to cf.
Lol
His notable change is with his walk rate, not hitting for power.
Generally, for every guy who’s raking unexpectedly, there’s usually one who’s struggling beyond expectations. Tends to even out over the season.
So, I will pass on the invitation to concoct theories about steroids. But we will keep an eye out for actual evidence, as ever.
A lot of guys have actively worked on changing their swings to hit more fly balls etc
Yeah I watch almost all the games and they did a segment on Reds live discussing his change to his stance. This year he has gone to leaving the bat on his shoulders because he saw others having success with it. Also important to note, it seems every year Cozart gets off to a very hot start and then cools off considerably. Still a very solid player who does all the right things.
“When are we gonna talk about how some sort of steroid is back in baseball.”
Perhaps when there is some actual evidence that players are using. Suppositions based on a one month sample size are worthless. There are variations in player performance every single year. Defaming players by presuming PED use based only on their on field performance is disgraceful and should be beneath us.
Where’s theres smoke and hoping it went away is being totally naive!
Naive? Lobbing accusations at people without a grain of fact to support them is completely irresponsible.
Where’s the “smoke” here, btw. A player has a hot month and that’s enough for you to openly accuse him of using illegal PEDs? Players have hot and cold streaks every single year. If having a hot month or so is enough for you to justify making an accusation you will find yourself accusing a whole bunch of innocent players. Which is not only disgraceful but would be actionable were you not posting anonymously.
This isn’t 1998. MLB has a testing protocol with penalties for those who fail. Unless a player has failed a drug test it is unfair to accuse him of using. And yes, I do realize that the longest non-lifetime suspension was given to a player who did not fail a drug test.
MLB changed the factory they used to manufacture baseballs a couple years ago. There is a theory the balls are more tightly wound now, and there were some amateur studies done that seemed to indicate that. Add to that the new focus by teams and players on launch angle/retooling swings based on statcast data, and I think there’s your culprit. I doubt there’s any sort of undetectable “steroids” involved. MLB has a pretty stringent testing program.
Those comps are ridiculous. Like usual, he was hot for 2 weeks and has been pathetic the past 2 (11 for his last 50).. He’s a below average hitter, will finish around .250 again this season.
3 years @ ~8M$ per
.250 isn’t a below avg hitter
Not for the Padres perhaps.
Crawford’s extension began at age 29, Cozart will be 32.
Desmond was not signed as a SS, and he’d averaged 151 games over the previous 5 years, whereas Cozart has averaged 122.
Hardy had a career 96+ OPS entering his extension, Cozart has an 85 and he plays half his games in Great American Small Park.
Who would you propose as comps?
That’s probably about right 3 year low 20 millions.
I made pretty clear I wasn’t suggesting them as apples-to-apples comps for the contracts. Being a good hitter is about quite a bit more than batting average, though. He has 11 hits over his last 54 PA, but is slashing .244/.370/.400 with 9 walks against 12 K.
If Cozart can reach base at a solid clip and continue hitting for good power, he’d be every bit as valuable as a Crawford or Desmond. Doesn’t mean you’d give him the same contract — age and track record weigh in here — but he’d be a pretty appealing player. The Hardy comp is pretty dang close, though. Almost literally the exact same age (at time of hypothetical contract), very similar profile.
If you believe a .289 OBP player (in 2,500+ PA’s entering the season) has all of a sudden become a good hitter – that’s your prerogative, I would disagree. If he were a player valued at an AAV anywhere near 13+M$ per then the Reds would have found a trade candidate for him this past 8 months. He’s a solid fielding #7 hitter who looks good for a few weeks of the year, and is also a good bet to spend time on the DL as well.
Perhaps some 200M$ club will value that kind of player at that AAV, again I disagree.
It should read buyer beware. He is the product of playing half his games in a park, where a pop up goes 400 feet. So Dipsnot in Seattle will give 5 years 100 million. And when it doesn’t work out. He will blame the owner or Mananger, saying he never wanted him.
Have you watched him play ball, or are you just commenting on the stadium?
How is Todd Frasier doing away from Cincinnati? While he was in Cincinnati Frasier was a All-star and a MVP candidate. Now he can’t even hit 200.
Since you obviously don’t watch the Reds like I do, here is the difference between Frazier and Zack Cozart. Todd Frazier’s approach was to swing as hard as he could and would swing at some ugly pitches. His whole goal was to swing hard and to lift the ball and to try to get it out. He’s obviously profiles as more of a power hitter. Cozart on the other hand has more of a swing that provides more line drives/ground balls. He’s more of a singles/doubles guy His home runs that he does get are usually line drives that go about 10 rows deep. Two totally different profiles. If Cozart were to get traded his home run totals might shrink but his average would probably be about the same due to his swing and approach at the plate. Line drives and ground balls will still get through where home runs might be catchable balls in other parks.
Todd Frazier hit a career high 41 HR last year in a White Sox uniform….
He is not a HR hitter, angelsfan beware of own comments, and like stats and stuff.
Actually what I was doing was, what almost every fan base does to players who play for the Rockies. It is pretty sad that where someone plays their home games, only matter when they play in Colorado.
It will interesting to see where his market takes him. Could a 3/36 or he could end up taking a one year 5 mil deal. Not a huge market out there but there should be enough teams out there that will take a shot at him.
He’s getting 5 mil right now. I think if he stays at like .285 he could get into the 6-8 mil range per year.. I’ve heard that some profile him as utility piece. Really depends on the suitor and the situation.
All depends on his second half and the suitor. I personally would love to see him used as a middle infielder utility type. Very strong defender with an above average bat.
I’ve never seen him play 2nd. He might have played some in the minors, but I can see him playing it in a pinch at the major league level. I don’t see the Reds playing him in a utility role as it might reduce it value. Not many teams will give up decent prospects for a utility guy, but every once in a while it will happen. IE Ben Zobrist.