After a catastrophic start to the season for Rangers right-hander Sam Dyson, the team’s ninth-inning scene is now among the biggest question marks facing the club’s decision-makers. Like predecessor Shawn Tolleson, Dyson transitioned from largely unheralded setup man to unlikely closer in 2016, racking up 38 saves with a 2.43 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and a 65.2 percent ground-ball rate. However, Dyson has also seemingly followed Tolleson’s footsteps by imploding early in his second season as a closer; in just 4 1/3 innings this year, the 28-year-old has yielded a staggering 13 earned runs on 14 hits (two homers) and five walks with just two strikeouts. He’s blown three saves and been saddled with three losses for a Rangers team that current sits last in the AL West with a 4-8 record.
A closer change in Arlington seems like a virtual lock, though manager Jeff Banister wouldn’t firmly commit to a new closer yesterday, telling reporters, “We’ll have those discussions,” when asked about a possible change but neglecting to elaborate beyond that (via MLB.com’s Doug Miller). The Rangers do possess several alternative options, so let’s run down the possibilities with a change seeming likely on the horizon…
- Matt Bush: The resurgence of the former No. 1 overall pick as a shutdown reliever is among the most improbable comebacks in recent MLB history. Bush has been dominant in 66 1/3 innings since making his MLB debut at the age of 30 last season, which came after spending more than three years in prison. With the Rangers, he’s posted a 2.58 ERA with a 69-to-15 K/BB ratio, a ground-ball rate of 42 percent and a fastball that has averaged 97 mph. There’s at least some level of trepidation when it comes to Bush’s shoulder, however, as the right-hander received a cortisone injection in his ailing AC joint last week, though he hasn’t demonstrated any ill effects since returning.
- Jeremy Jeffress: The former Brewers closer has been generally excellent since establishing himself as a big league bullpen arm back in 2014. Across his past 164 Major League innings, Jeffress has a 2.58 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate approaching 60 percent. He’s typically averaged about 95 mph on his heater, and he racked up 27 saves in 2016 for the Brewers before being shipped to the Rangers alongside Jonathan Lucroy in a summer blockbuster. Like Bush, Jeffress has had his share of off-field issues and spent a month in a rehab facility for alcohol abuse late last season. Looking solely at his on-field performance, he’s a perfectly serviceable option for the Rangers in the ninth inning and comes with the most experience of the team’s internal candidates. Piling up some additional saves would likely inflate Jeffress’ arbitration earnings next year, though the team likely wouldn’t be deterred by that if it kept them in games in 2017.
- Tony Barnette: A former Diamondbacks minor leaguer that broke out in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, Barnette inked a two-year, $3.5MM deal with the Rangers on the heels of a dominant six-year run with NPB’s Yakult Swallows. The 33-year-old has had a slightly rocky start to his 2017 season but was a terrific low-cost addition to the relief corps last season, logging 60 1/3 innings of 2.09 ERA ball with 7.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent ground-ball rate. Installing Barnette as the closer comes with immediate financial implications as well, as his modest $1.75MM salary can rise by as much as $550K based on games finished. He can also see the value of his $4MM club option for the 2017 season increase significantly based on games finished.
The Rangers also have hard-throwing rookie Jose Leclerc, though he comes with just 21 1/3 innings of Major League experience to date. Young right-hander Keone Kela would’ve conceivably been an option to close games in the event of a Dyson meltdown, but he was optioned to Triple-A Round Rock at the end of Spring Training for disciplinary reasons following a clash with some of the team’s more veteran players. Either righty could seemingly be a high-leverage/ninth-inning option down the line, but neither stands out as a likely option at present.
As I did with the Phillies last week, I’ll turn this one over to the general public to weigh in (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…
Bush is a strikeout pitcher, which would likely make him more valuable in a setup role, he can bail other guys out when they need it, etc.
Jeffress is more groundball-based, which as a closer, if thats how he can get his 3 outs quick enough, it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t K guys a ton.
But we’ve seen from dyson that ground balls can still sometimes lead to hits so Bush is the best way to go.
This sounds absolutely backwards. A groundball pitcher could induce double plays to bail out guys in a jam, and a strike out guy can shut teams down in an inning before they ever get started, which is what you want a closer to do.
Jeffress runs around 60-70% Grounders, where hitters usually put up a ~.240 BAbip off GBs. He also usually sits around a 8 K/9, which is expecting almost one each 1-inning appearance. The likelihood he will give up enough hits to generate runs when he starts an inning is fairly slim. Add in his rarely giving up FBs leading to his minuscule HR ratio for his career. Everything factored together means he is probably more beneficial to a team over a full inning than just short doses – he will give up the occasional LD hit, but with bases empty that isn’t much of an issue..
Bush, meanwhile, should be expected to be somewhere around 1 K per appearance as well (I don’t think the 15/9 is sustainable at all) while so far this year he has been giving up 67% FBs but no LDs. That too is not sustainable, but when some of those FBs end up as LD then all of a sudden his BAbip is going to jump up from its current ~.250, while the always higher FB ratio will almost always result in more homers (esp in a place like Texas)
Bush over a full inning is probably much more likely to give up runs (esp if he keeps up that 2HR/9 rate) but in short doses will probably be more likely to keep up something closer to his current rates. He is a gamble regardless right now, but I would feel much better taking that gamble as a fireman than giving him the closers role, have him implode, then have to make yet another closer change soon.
Groundballs are subject to the vagaries of luck, defense, etc. Keeping the ball out of play is the goal, especially in high-leverage situations.
They should just use a batting tee, it would have better results
for my own selfish fantasy purposes, I’m hoping it is Bush
Bush. Either drop Dyson, or bury him in the bullpen. I doubt we’ll get anything from a trade.
I would fear inserting Matt Bush would lead to this very conversation taking place once again a month or two from now. He’s pitching well in the majors so far, leave him where he is for now
Process of elimination leads to Jeremy Jeffress, imo
agreed
I agree, too, but given the volatile nature of relievers and bullpens in general, this conversation may happen again soon, regardless.
Unless you have a de-facto closer like Britton, Janson, Kimbrel or Chapman, I really don’t see the need to name a closer this early in the year. The Rangers have enough power arms that they can essentially go with whoever provides the best matchup. IMO they should hold off on naming a closer, and go with closer by committee until Dyson regains his footing or someone else rises above the rest. Bush, Jeffress, and Kela are more than capable if Dyson’s struggles continue.
Thank you, I totally agree; maybe even let Leclerc get some opportunities too but keep it a committee for now. I’ve seen too many quality relievers crumble under the added pressure of the closer title.
I added both Jeffress and Bush this morning (dropped Reed who is going to lose his spot) and Moore.
Rangers: Our closer isn’t that good
Phillies: Hold my beer……….
LeClerc has electric stuff. He can be a shutdown guy. Bush’s arm is suspect. Dyson needs to go to AAA to get his head back together. He’s gotta be shell shocked at this point!
Bush throws 100 mph. How is his arm suspect.
he missed some time last year with arm soreness and only this past week, he needed an injection. I don’t know how durable Bush is although obviously, he throws very hard.
I really like leclerc. He hasn’t been great so far this year, but throws very hard which seems to be important for closers.
Wait, what? Leclerc hasn’t been great so far this year? Dude has allowed one run I believe in 6 or so IP and has 10 k’s in that period. He has also come in to absolute disaster situations and gotten out of them… He’s been pretty great by my standards at least.
And he appears to have put his control problems behind him. He has been fantastic
Make a trade for Hector Neris and give the Phillies a bunch of young controllable talent. Houston seems to have a pretty good closer now and Phillies got pretty good rotation.
Tolleson = Dyson
Jeez, at this point, maybe give Nolan Ryan a shot…
I bet Nolan Ryan could come in and get 3 outs. As should most pitchers. Save is overrated. Just get a guy who can get 3 outs.
Well, they have guys who can get three outs… but you need to do so BEFORE giving up three runs…
bush is a good option, but i think rangers prefer him in long relief role
as many options as they have, none r great. leclerc is unproven, like dyson and tolleson. jeffress and kela’s heads r suspect, diekman had his colon removed, im not sold on barnette as an option
Trade with Braves for Mauricio Cabrera to close games. Cabrera had second most pitches over 100mph in 2016. Averaged over 100 as well.
Put them on the list of teams that may potentially need David Robertson come June/July.
Agreed – David Robertson is a great candidate for them. Hopefully a small bidding war begins to occur between the Rangers and Nationals for his services.
How about moving Cashner to the bullpen? They have options including Dillon Gee, who looked good in spring training, Cashner has struggled in the rotation and has dealt with injuries the last few years, and he’ll definitely throw even harder in the bullpen. If the rotation struggles, you could put him back in until Dyson, Kela, Jeffress, Bush, or anyone prove they’re absolutely capable of closing. Maybe they could trade for starters including Quintana (packaged with Robertson?) Marco Estrada, Mike Leake, Colon, Dickey, or Cobb, Odorizzi, Archer, or Sonny Gray?
If TX plays the arb game and does not want Bush or Leclerc becoming expensive, then they deserve to follow the SFG and their 30+ playoff eliminating blown save epidemic.
Then, they’ll go buy a “top closer” at the backend of his career only to regret it after seeing his spring and debut appearance.
Tony Watson.
Kela
if they think they can make I run try to get a deal for David Robertson for some prospects
Doug Brocail changed this guy and got him to go up and in more. Makes no sense for a sinker baller
My choice Donald Trump
To me the by committee approach makes the most sense. You’ve seen what each one of these guys bring to the table. With Jeffress and Barnette you know you will have more of a veteran perspective. Kela, Bush, and Leclerc are all either young and/or inexperienced which could play to their favor. Call it on the job training. Feliz pre-injury was pretty much the same kind of situation and was great. Yes I haven’t forgotten the one pitch he needed to make in 2011…but let’s see the Rangers get to that point first.