Here’s the latest on top Cuban outfield prospect Luis Robert, who became eligible for free agency this week and can sign with an MLB club beginning May 20:
- The Braves have interest in Robert, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. “Through the hard work of our international department, led by Gordon Blakely, we are in every game,” says GM John Coppolella. “We like Robert, and so do many other teams, so we will see where it goes.” O’Brien notes, though, that the Braves are “unlikely to get in a major bidding war” for Robert. The Braves were among the heaviest spenders in international free agency last season (nabbing top prospect Kevin Maitan and others), but can still make Robert whatever offer they like before mid-June, albeit with penalties for exceeding their bonus pool.
- The White Sox, Padres, Cardinals, Reds and Astros are among the favorites to sign Robert, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes, echoing previous reports. Sanchez also lists the Athletics as a possibility, noting that the A’s have spent heavily on international talent (including Cuban outfielder Lazaro Armenteros) since July and have “strong interest” in Robert. Sanchez further notes that the A’s took the rest of MLB by surprise by signing another Cuban outfield phenom, Yoenis Cespedes, in 2012. Sanchez also tweets that A’s GM David Forst and other team officials are in the Dominican to scout Robert.
- Cardinals GM John Mozeliak confirms his team is interested, according to Derrick Goold and Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “I know the math,” Mozeliak says. “I think we’ll be in the game.” The Cardinals think he is a “rare talent” who would be worthy of a top draft choice if he were eligible for the draft, Goold writes. Like other teams likely to be involved in the bidding, the Cardinals have already spent heavily on international free agents this signing period, giving seven-figure bonuses to outfielders Jonatan Machado, Randy Arozarena and Victor Garcia as well as pitcher Johan Oviedo.
- The Padres have also confirmed their interest, reports Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “We have seen him multiple times and will continue to scout him aggressively until he signs,” says Padres international scouting director Chris Kemp. Including penalties, the Padres since July 2 have already spent an amazing total of nearly $80MM on a large collection of international amateur talent headlined by Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon. Lin notes that sources tell him the Padres might not have much more to spend on amateur talent after such an incredible expenditure (although it should also be noted that the team’s international spending has been balanced by a remarkably cheap big-league payroll). The Padres might see Robert as a special opportunity to add top talent, however, particularly given that their ability to spend will be restricted once the current spending period ends.
- At his Twitter page, Baseball America’s Ben Badler has videos explaining which teams look most likely to sign Robert and which teams don’t seem likely. One obstacle for some teams, Badler notes, is that they already have unofficial deals in place with players who are not technically eligible to sign until the start of the next signing period on July 2. Signing Robert before that would cause those teams to incur penalties, thus jeopardizing existing agreements. Such deals are not binding, but backing away from them would be seen as negotiating in bad faith.
Breezy
Let’s be real, all 30 teams have a level of interest in this kid.
reflect
Nah, the Mets don’t. Too expensive.
jdgoat
It’s pretty much impossible for some to sign him though unless he signs for 300 k with those teams which he is going to blow past with teams that are not penalized
Toksoon
Yea but all the big boys exceeded international spending limits so they can’t sign anyone for more than 300 k
mrpadre19
8-10 teams including some of the “big boys” can’t sign him unless he’s willing to take $300k.
That Ain’t gonna happen.
mrkinsm
—Ben Badler
The Diamondbacks, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Royals are automatically out since they each exceeded their pools previously and as a penalty can’t sign anyone for more than $300,000. Then most other teams are unofficially out of the mix because they have millions of dollars committed to players who will sign on July 2 in the 2017-18 signing period. If one of those clubs were to sign Robert before June 15 and blow past its bonus pool, that team wouldn’t be able to sign anyone for more than $300,000 in 2017-18. They can’t sign Robert without those commitments evaporating.
outinleftfield
Orioles don’t. They haven’t more than a couple hundred grand on an IFA player in years.
pplama
Before making a singly deadline trade, the White Sox payroll is $17mil. lower than last year. They also have $39mil. Melky, Holland, Gonzo and Frazier $’s coming off the books.
Only JR’s antiquated views on prospect signings will stop the White Sox from doing the right thing.
Make it so!
RedBirdsSwaff
Red birds are going to grab him! We can do it! Red buuuurds
chesteraarthur
That’s assault, brutha.
failedstate
This comment made me laugh wayyyyy too hard. Thank you.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Most of the “evidence” in the “Nutting’s cheap” narrative are just IC Light fueled ramblings of Yinzers who have no clue how the world works.
But there are two legit examples that could be used in that argument….
1) The Pirates are NEVER mentioned in these free agent talks. Haven’t signed a significant international free agent since Polanco and that was a long time ago now. Why can’t they be in on a guy like Robert?
2) They recently had a Kid’s Day promotion…anyone under 14 gets a free batting glove. Singular. Does anyone wear just one batting glove? This isn’t golf. I see guys wearing either two or none. Maybe they are giving away the other hand next year.
Whyamihere
Maybe they have bonuses lined up for more than 300k next period?
pplama
We feel your pain.
The White Sox haven’t signed a top 25 Int FA in 5 years, and haven’t had one get past A+ Ball since the old Scouting Director was busted for skimming in 2011.
mrpadre19
Hmm…..Jose Abreu?
Thought he was signed in 2014?
pplama
He was not a July 2 IFA signee.
wsox05
White Sox signed Micker Adolfo who MLB.com had as the #2 international prospect a few years ago.
julyn82001
A’s written all over…
mrkinsm
The A’s have paid what? 3-4 M$ in overages so far? Is their penny pinching owner going to pay out another 10M+$ in bonus and 10M+$ in tax?
teufelshunde4
Most forecasts for Robert is 25 to 30 million. So that’s really a 50 to 60 million dollar signing. If 20 million is A’s is cap then they aren’t gonna be players.
minoso9
Sounds like it’s wide open for this kid. Go get him White Sox. We need OF help.
TradeAcuna
The Braves building a “good farm system” one player at a time just in time for them to be a .500 team in 2030. Until then, 60-75 wins per season!
bravesfan88
Since obviously you can tell thenfuture, you mind sharing your gift for tomorrow’s fantasy five numbers??
pukelit
The Phillies have money to burn. Why can’t they ever be players for guys like this
SixFlagsMagicPadres
Maybe the Padres can finish their spending spree by signing this guy.
mrkinsm
Yoenis was a major league contract not a minor league contract with IFA restrictions.
Padres or Reds, both owners can offer whatever they need to because they can’t sign anyone the next 2 years and they won’t be spending anything extra on the mlb roster. 9M$ minimum
outinleftfield
They can sign whoever they want up to a total of $5 million or so. They just can’t sign them for over $300k each.
mrkinsm
Yep, which means no top 100 IFA.
They and everyone else over their pool is likely better off trading all of their slots.
chieftoto
I wouldn’t be surprised to see ATL offer a straight number somewhere around $10/12 Mil, then drop out if he says no.
T206
Reds all the way! Look at their success so far in signing Cuban players and the future players know this too! I’d even let you wear #44 big fellow!
pplama
Has anyone heard #’s on this?
I was guessing $15mil-$20mil + that amount in penalties. So $30mil-$40mil. all in.
But there does seem to be Moncada type hype on this kid.
outinleftfield
I had thought it might be around what the Padres spent on Ona and Morejon or $7 – $11 million. Badler has said Moncada level signing. So $30 million or so. That means for teams over the threshold it’s about $60 million all in.
Polish Hammer
Top Cuban prospect? Hasn’t anybody with any talent down there already defected? Seems every week somebody else is signing somewhere.
davidcoonce74
Umm, it’s a country of ten million people and the only sport they play is baseball. So, yeah, plenty of talent still there.
mrkinsm
Just about, the average age of the Cuban league has gone from roughly 25 to 30 over the past decade due to all of the defections. Robert is lucky, he’s the very last one that is going to get big money. From here on out the only ones who will get big money have to be 25 years of age or older.
Those under 25 will be restricted to the new caps, so some will still become millionaires but none will be multimillionaires.
padresfan
This will cap the padres international run if this comes to be
davidcoonce74
They can spend as much as they want until J2
mrkinsm
June 15th is the last day of the signing period and there isn’t anyone left to sign. He’s only available because MLB hadn’t cleared him yet.
Priggs89
I feel like Rick Hahn has to be extremely involved in this. Otherwise, it doesn’t make sense to me why they would spend basically no money this signing period and have nothing substantial lined up for the next signing period. To me, it feels like they weren’t sure if Luis Robert would be posted this period or next, so they wanted to play it safe and not risk anything until they found out. Either that, or they’re being extremely cheap and trying to kill the rebuild before it can even get rolling. Really hope I’m right with my original thought, but we’ll see.
teufelshunde4
One problem for Hahn is that if he goes big on Robert then he punts 2 signing periods for a single player. If they were that into Robert, why not spend prior the on other guys to truly stock the farm?
Priggs89
Because they didn’t know if he’d be eligible this period or next… If they blew past their budget this period (like the Padres/Cards/etc) and he wasn’t made available until next period, they wouldn’t have had a chance at signing him. Likewise, if they lined up significant signings for the 17-18 period like some teams have and he became available this period, they’d have to back out of their 17-18 signings after signing Robert (except for the ones under $300k), which obviously would be a bad look for any organization.
The only reason that it makes sense to not spend this period and not have anything setup for next period is if they are THAT into Robert. Otherwise, they are doing a terrible job attempting to rebuild.
Obviously it’s not ideal, but I’m hoping they like him that much and took the “better safe than sorry” approach. It would’ve been preferable to do what the Padres did, but then again, if he wasn’t eligible until next period, the Padres would’ve missed their opportunity.
wsox05
I actually agree with this Priggs. Hahn has spoke about this a little bit in some interviews. The Sox don’t want to blow by the caps each year on players they don’t think are game changers and want to be able to be in on a guy like Robert when he becomes available.
nentwigs
Why are the Twins never in on these Cuban players? They were one of baseball’s early teams to recruit and successfully develop Cuban and Latin American players. They have an accomplished statesman of Cuban decent in their organization in Tony Oliva. A top performer on the field, a wonderful citizen off the field, and an outstanding baseball “guy” who can speak volumes about his happiness to call the Twin Cities his home to young Cubans looking to make their mark in the world and in baseball while finding a new HOME.
squish
Is this guy better than maitan
beersy
According to MLB.com he is.
wartdog
Robert is also 19 and has had success in Cubas top league. Maitan was a 16 year old Venezuelan. So the higher ranking is most likely from proximity to MLB not potential. Robert seems like a fantastic prospect but Maitan is said to be a generational talent.
Atlanta gave him 4.5 million, but I imagine if he signed at 19 we would have been talking about a ridiculous record setting contract for an IFA. Cuban IFA kids almost always get more $ compared to Venezuelan, DR, PR, etc because they are usually 18-19 compared to 16-17. Less chance to bust but also maybe not as high a ceiling as a roof.
Polish Hammer
PR kids are draftable, so of course the Cuban IFA kids gets more $.
wartdog
Ya youre right about PR nice catch my B.
But with the new collective bargaining agreement that starts this J2 we may actually see top draft picks sign for the same or more as non draft eligible kids. Its gonna be interesting to see how teams spend IFA $ now.
beersy
Every team being mentioned is either over their limit or darn near it, so really any team will be paying double for Robert after the penalty. This is all going to come down to an owner/ownership group who is willing to write a very large cheque. As a Padre fan, I hope Preller and Co. Can talk Fowler/Seidler into ponying up one last time.
bravesfan88
One team’s fans are going to be pretty happy after signing this kid. He’s definitely very talented, and here’s to my pipe dream of the Braves signing him…
Most likely will be the Padres though…unfortunately for the rest of us…lol
thekid9
He’s from Cuba he HAS to be the greatest.
Signed,
Héctor Olivera
JFactor
If signing amounts were neutral, based on talent alone…where would he go in a MLB draft?
Priggs89
I’ve read that he’ll probably be ranked a top 25 prospect once he signs. So if we say top 50 just to be safe, you’re probably looking at a top 3-5 pick (at worst) I’d imagine. If teams think he can stick in CF, I would have to believe he’d be in the top 2 position prospects taken. Even if he has to move to a corner OF spot, I’d think he’d still be in the top 10.
blue-jays_6
If mets are out it’s coz they feel set with there outfield prospects….tebow
bravesfan
If the braves are interested, I say go for it.