MLB teams have only played around 9% of their regular season games, but we’ve got our eye on the next free agent class. The players referenced in this post are scheduled (or can elect) to become free agents after the 2017 season. These rankings are subject to change each month, as players drop off due to extensions, injuries, or poor performance, while others see their stock rise.
The first entry in this year’s Free Agent Power Rankings was published on March 14th. The pitchers have only made three or four starts, and the hitters have around 50 plate appearances. Naturally, there hasn’t been a lot of movement at the top of the rankings. We did see one player drop out of the running, as the Cardinals signed catcher Yadier Molina to a three-year, $60MM extension earlier this month. In hindsight, Molina should have snagged an honorable mention last time, but I underestimated his earning power.
That’s the goal here: to rank the upcoming free agents based on earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder. For the full list of 2017-18 MLB free agents, click here.
1. Jake Arrieta. Arrieta’s first three starts have gone well, as strikeouts are up and walks are down after 18 2/3 frames. There is a potential red flag, however, which was explained by Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs. Arrieta’s velocity appears to be down a few miles per hour in the early going, despite velocity tracking adjustments that have generally boosted readings across the game. After his second start, Arrieta told reporters, “There’s FanGraph articles. I don’t care about that.” As the pitcher put it, “When the 95-to-97 comes back, it’s going to be tough for teams. And it still is.” Arrieta is right in that it’s only April. But if he somehow stays at 91-92 miles per hour all year, his earning power will likely be lower. Back in Spring Training, Arrieta told Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, “I don’t think a six- or seven-year deal is out of the question.” We’ll stick with a five-year prediction for now.
2. Yu Darvish. Four starts in, Darvish has succeeded on the back of an unsustainable .230 batting average on balls in play. Strikeouts are down and walks are up in Darvish’s 24 2/3 innings, but it would be unwise to read into it at this point. If Darvish is able to make 30+ starts for the second time in his MLB career, he’ll be paid handsomely. That contract could still come from the Rangers, as GM Jon Daniels told Norm Hitzges on 1310 The Ticket back in March that both sides are open to midseason negotiations.
3. Johnny Cueto. Cueto scuffled in his first start at Arizona, but has gone seven innings in each of his last two outings. He remains on track to opt out of his remaining four years and $84MM after the season, or at least negotiate some kind of extension with the Giants.
4. Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has gotten progressively better in each of his four starts this year, culminating in a fine seven-inning start against the White Sox last night. The Yankees’ ace must decide after the season whether to opt out of the remaining three years and $67MM left on his contract. With a healthy year, opting out would seem to be a no-brainer. A few weeks ago, Mike Mazzeo and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News wrote, “Sources tell the Daily News that if the Japanese ace opts out of his $155 million contract, the Yankees would have no interest in pursuing a costly, long-term extension with the 28-year-old righty.” They went on to report that the Yankees “are annoyed at Tanaka’s agent, Casey Close, for holding the threat of a potential opt-out over their heads.” Yankees top brass rejected this report out of hand, as detailed by George A. King III of the New York Post. President Randy Levine commented to King, “I never heard any of this. We normally don’t move until the event.” Recent history backs this up, with the Yankees allowing Alex Rodriguez to opt out before doing a new deal, and waiting until C.C. Sabathia was on the brink of doing so.
5. Jonathan Lucroy. Lucroy, 31 in June, remains the best position player of the 2017-18 free agent class despite a quiet start. After playing in 11 of the Rangers’ 15 games, Lucroy has just one extra-base hit in 44 plate appearances. One new development: on March 27th, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that Lucroy and the Rangers tabled extension talks. Shortly after that point, Molina signed his new extension with the Cardinals. With a strong season, Lucroy would be justified in seeking Molina’s $20MM average annual value, over a five-year period.
6. J.D. Martinez. Martinez sprained the Lisfranc ligament in his right foot on March 18th and opened the season on the disabled list. On Tuesday, Tigers manager Brad Ausmus said his right fielder is “pretty close” to a minor league rehab assignment, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. At this point, there is no reason to expect the injury to affect Martinez’s earning power in free agency.
7. Justin Upton. The big question is whether Upton will opt out of the remaining four years and $88MM on his contract with the Tigers. We should have a better idea by the time he turns 30 this August. But if he hits 30 home runs and draws 70 walks, he’ll have to at least consider seeking a new five-year deal. Thus far, he’s hitting .250/.372/.472 with a pair of homers over 43 trips to the plate.
8. Eric Hosmer. There is probably confirmation bias in me dropping Hosmer a spot after just 58 plate appearances this year. But Hosmer’s $100MM projection was always on shaky ground, as he’s hitting just .232/.301/.364 in 512 plate appearances since June of last year. As far as extension talks, there was a development in mid-March. Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star talked to Royals owner David Glass, who said, “I think it will be difficult. I think Hoz wants to stay here, and I think he’s very loyal to our organization. But at the same time, these guys have agents that want to get the best deal for them. Hoz has (Scott) Boras, and if Boras doesn’t get a really good deal for Hoz, then it affects his relationship with his other clients. They sort of set a standard with each one of their clients. So I think we’ll have a difficult time with Hosmer.” As you might imagine, Boras rejected the notion that he is driving the bus rather than his client. In the shorter term, the Royals might have to consider trading Hosmer three months from now if they fall out of contention in the AL Central. That scenario could work to Hosmer’s benefit, as he’d be ineligible for a qualifying offer after the year if dealt.
9. Mike Moustakas. Hosmer’s teammate across the diamond has received less contract-related fanfare, but could soon pass him in earning power. Moustakas, 28, was profiled by Jeff Todd in our Make Or Break Year series in March. So far, the 28-year-old seems to be making it. He’s hitting .300/.352/.620 with five home runs in 54 plate appearances. Moustakas had a hot start last April as well, hitting seven home runs in a 71 plate appearance span before suffering a season-ending ACL tear. So far Moose seems no worse for the wear, starting 12 of the Royals’ 14 games and making appearances in the other two. Moustakas, also a Boras client, could end up hitting 30 home runs this year with solid defense at the hot corner.
10. Michael Pineda. Yes, it’s been only three starts for Pineda, and his first one was a dud in Tampa Bay. But his second effort, also against the Rays, was a masterpiece ranking among the best of his 103 career starts. Pineda can be maddening, with brilliant strikeout to walk ratios but abnormally high home run per flyball rates and BABIPs. For his Yankees career, the result has continually been an ERA much higher than what a metric like xFIP or SIERA might suggest. Pineda’s final stat line could be more of the same, but with a few corrections he could receive Cy Young votes this year. (He was also profiled here as a “make or break” player.)
Dropping out: Carlos Gonzalez. CarGo could return to the top ten if he can right the ship, but he’s off to a miserable start. Over sixty trips to the plate, he’s hitting just .175/.200/.298 with a single home run and 13 strikeouts to go with a pair of walks. That’s not enough of a sample to panic, but it’s enough for a few younger players to edge ahead of him at the moment.
Honorable mentions for the Free Agent Power Rankings include Jay Bruce, Todd Frazier, Carlos Santana, Lorenzo Cain, Wade Davis, Chris Tillman, and Zack Cozart.
dodgergreg
Make that .175 for a batting average.
Jeff Todd
That was my mistake. Fixed.
dodgergreg
For CarGo.
kachur7
Who wants to give Justin Upton more that $22 million a year for 2 WAR?
Tim Dierkes
I think it’s in the realm of possibility that he has a 3-4 WAR season in 2017.
dodgerfan711
Really dont think upton will opt out. No one will give him anything close to his current contract
padam
Upton should hang tight with that contract.
chesteraarthur
Would be interested to hear why the royals free agents are ranked this way. I can understand Moose ahead of LoCain due to age and still playing a somewhat demanding defensive position, but Hosmer I just don’t get being above those two. Hosmer is a 0.84 war/600 player for his career.
For a 1b he’s got questionable power, he’s not a good defender, he doesn’t run the bases well, and he is stuck as a 1b only player. We saw last offseason how that type of player isn’t really valued in free agency. The only thing he really has is age (though he’s only 1 year younger than Moustakas).
What are the contracts that you are projecting for these players that has them in this order?
Tim Dierkes
Hosmer is explained in greater depth here:
mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-…
While I don’t think his WAR tells the whole story, I also don’t think he’s very good. He just has good marketing. So his spot is reflective of a projection around five years and $90MM. If the Royals offered him that right now, he might turn that down.
The marketing idea kind of goes out the window if he keeps hitting like this. Steve Adams suggested Hosmer should be moved down to #10. But I didn’t want to be overly reactive – if something like 5/90-100 made sense a month ago, I might wait another month and then maybe he’s #10 or off the list.
Something like four years, $72MM for Moose. As his ACL tear gets further in the rearview, and if he keeps hitting, I think five years would be on the table and he could get to #7 or 8.
Tim Dierkes
We talked about Cain this week…it’s hard for me to see him getting a fifth year when his new deal starts with his age 32 season.
chesteraarthur
All fair points. I guess I just don’t see Hosmer’s marketing being that successful. I’d like to think that non-KC front offices will be smart enough to not overpay him for his intangibles or whatever Boras tries to peddle to cover for the fact that he isn’t very valuable on the field, but Boras is pretty good at his job, so…
Career numbers aren’t the best to use to illustrate a point since players can change over time, but he’s got a career 106 wRC+. That’s the 2016 version of Andrew McCutchen, but at 1b..
chesteraarthur
I guess he’s at 108 over the last 3, so it’s really not that much different.
jlmini10
Any thoughts on what Lance Lynn could command? I know he’s older than Pineda but he’s been consistently better.
Tim Dierkes
Maybe 3/39? With a good enough year, four years could become possible.
metseventually 2
I’d really like Moose on the Mets, but I get the feeling Syndergaard and himself feel very differently.
Joe Kerr
Where does Luis Robert fit on this list now that he is a FA?
jdgoat
He’ll be signed before all these guys become free agents
chesteraarthur
No where near it, because the international bonus rules will limit his earning power.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
No he was cleared so international bonus rules won’t impact his earning power. It’ll be the next class that it affects, teams are still operating under the old rules.
chesteraarthur
You don’t think a team having to pay a 100% tax on any of their overages and limiting the teams that can even do that are going to limit his earning power?
He’s getting ~50% of what a team is going to have to pay to acquire him and his possible destinations are restricted by teams that can’t go over 300k. How is it that those conditions wont serve to restrict his earning power?
Moncada was the highest paid IFA ever, he made 31.5 million. Do you Robert will get significantly more than that? Probably, not. Following that thread, do you really think a 31.5m contract is going to rank anywhere close to the top 10 free agent contracts? I’m gonna say that again, the answer is probably not.
chesteraarthur
The old rules limited earning power as well. Moncada was valued at 63m or whatever by the redsox, he only earned 31.5m.
Joe Kerr
For the record my original question was in relation to talent as to where he would fit on the list, not $$ spent on his contract.
chesteraarthur
This list isn’t sorted by talent, so it’d be tougher to fit him in the list properly using that criteria while the other names on the list are organized by earning power.
“That’s the goal here: to rank the upcoming free agents based on earning power. These rankings represent expected contract size, assuming each player reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder”
If he is to come here and be a top 25 prospect or so like jeff said in the chat, that’d put him as about a 55fv player, which is about 2.5 WAR, which is roughly what Mike Moustakas was projected at for 2017. Obviously, that’s fv and not pv, so it’s unlikely that he would appear on this list purely by talent either.
outinleftfield
He wouldn’t really fit on this list. He is so young and missed so much time that you really need to think about him as if he was a draft pick or a prospect. As far as money goes, he might get as much as the Padres gave Morejon, but probably half that.
seamaholic 2
Think you’re gonna have to make room for Tyler Chatwood on this list pretty soon.
Kayrall
The teams that sign Moos and Hosmer this off season are going to regret it quickly if these projections are accurate.
chesteraarthur
I think it will be very interesting to watch Hosmer this FA period.
ExileInLA 2
Jay Bruce can’t sustain his start – but if he repeats his (pre-trade) normal performance he’ll be top 10 soon.
hojostache
We (Met fans) sure hope so. I admittedly wasn’t a fan of the trade, but he seems to be settling in on and off the field.
TheMichigan
I hope to God that Upton opts out
hojostache
That was a bad contract before the ink dried, so I can understand the desire by DET fans. I’ve never liked his game, hopefully he opts out and a team like LAD grabs him.
bravosfan4life
I hope the braves go out and get lucroy he will be worth it we need a catcher badly
BooJays33
how does zack cozart get an hon. mention but Marco Estrada doesn’t?
zwmartin
Get Hosmer out of here.
doomfactory
Cueto is only in the 2nd year of his deal. It was signed in 2016, can he opt out of the last 2 years?
bfolls
Yes
Bryan Jones
So you mean to tell me that Micheal Pineda, who has never thrown more than 175 innings, has only thrown over 100 innings twice, and has only had one season with an ERA of less than 4, which was 3.87, is better than Chris Tillman?? Tillman had two seasons back to back of 200 innings plus, has had 4 years in the last 5 of an ERA less than 3.80, and has averaged 190 innings over the past 4 years??? Pineda is better??? Really??? Get outta here with that blasphemy.