Given that Orioles third baseman Manny Machado and Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper are scheduled to reach free agency after the 2018 season, high-payroll teams will spend the next two years deciding the more worthy target, writes Buster Olney of ESPN.com. With that in mind, Olney polled seven evaluators on which potential $400MM player they’d prefer to sign. Six chose Machado, whom the evaluators regard as a more well-rounded player. “Harper gets credit and gets a huge part of his reputation for how far he hits home runs, but they still only count for one run,” one evaluator told Olney. “Machado is an entire field hitter who hits to the situation. He can hammer majestic homers, but can also do other things to help a team win.”
More from Olney:
- If the Tigers don’t begin the season well, there’s a sense around the majors that they could consider moving the likes of second baseman Ian Kinsler and outfielder J.D. Martinez. Both veterans came up in offseason trade rumors and aren’t under team control for much longer. The 34-year-old Kinsler is controllable for the next two seasons at $21MM, including a $10MM option for 2018. Martinez, 30 in August, will make $11.75MM this year and then become a free agent during the winter. Notably, the slugger suffered a foot injury Saturday and will undergo an MRI on Sunday.
- The Blue Jays “are said to be” in the market for outfield help, per Olney. Toronto is set in center (Kevin Pillar) and right (Jose Bautista), but left is questionable with Steve Pearce, Melvin Upton Jr., Ezequiel Carrera and Dalton Pompey as its in-house options. The top free agent outfielder left on the board is Angel Pagan, whom the Jays are reportedly unlikely to sign. They do have interest in free agent utilityman Kelly Johnson, though he’s primarily an infielder.
- Free agent catcher Derek Norris has a reputation of “sometimes clashing with pitchers,” according to Olney, who notes the 28-year-old will have to overcome that as he searches for his next employer. There are reportedly “about a half-dozen teams” interested in Norris, whom the Nationals released this week after they weren’t able to find a taker in a trade. An acquiring club would have had to take on his $4.2MM salary, of course, whereas signing him should come at a cheaper price.
- There’s concern in Giants camp regarding the play of center fielder Denard Span, who’s not hitting or, to some evaluators, moving well. The 33-year-old fared decently at the plate in 2016 (.266/.331/.381 in 637 trips); however, he’s coming off back-to-back subpar campaigns in the field, during which he combined for minus-17 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-13 Ultimate Zone Rating. The Giants owe Span $22MM over the next three years, including a $4MM buyout for 2019.
That Span deal looked questionable at the time in terms of years, now it look pretty bad. Unusual for the Giants
The Giants seem to have a blind spot when it comes to the outfield and free agents. Pence has worked out fairly well and of course Bonds was, well, you know, Bonds. But I think of guys like Aaron Rowand and Randy Winn, now Span and it seems like they have this type – athletic outfielders without a lot of power but on the wrong side of 30 who lose it quickly. I don’t think Rowand even made it through his contract.
You nailed it. There was an article recently about the Giants failure to develop OFs this millennia despite constantly producing home-grown IF.
Super worried about this. The Giants never can find a quality long-term solution in CF. Can’t develop one; Can’t buy one.
I’m not sure what the giants have in regards to young controllable pitchers but the Yankees have some young interesting outfielders who are blocked by vets and top prospects. Some one like Dustin fowlers who has opened a lot of eyes this spring and McKinney who is showing why he was a first round pick a few yrs ago are both under 22 with a lot of potential but no clear path with the Yankees, Tyler wade too
I read that article – except for Marvin Bernard the last really solid MLB outfielder they produced was Chili Davis back in the early 80’s.
Personally, I don’t think it’s much of a debate when discussing Machado vs Harper. Give me Machado 7 days per week.
Now with that said, if both somehow reach the open market in 2018, I’ll be happy to land either.
I think defensively you give the edge to Machado, and it’s a good bat at a premium defensive position if he’s at short, still a great bat for a third baseman. Only caution signs for Machado are that his walk rate plummeted last season while his k-rate increased. He had a 39/120 BB/K rate last season after drawing 68 walks the previous season. Plus his steals dropped from 20 to zero and he’s already had two knee surgeries. But in 2016 he was clearly better.
Harper, on the other hand, had some kind of lingering injury last season, and who knows if it’s gone. But Harper is 8 months younger than Machado, draws tons of walks – a skill that tends to age well – and even stole 21 bases last season. He’s an elite defensive player too, although at a less demanding position, and if his batting average was just an injury-related fluke last season and he puts together another year like his MVP season, he’s probably the better player. But they’re both headed towards massive contracts.
You can really contribute Harpers walks last year to the fact Ryan Zimmerman was hitting behind him for half the season
Nah. You can contribute most of his walks to having a 1.109 OPS in 2015.
Harper drew 20 intentional walks last yeaar, 98 unintentional, but like 13 of those IBBs came in one series. The year before he drew 15 IBB and 109 UIBB.
I agree. Machado is a gold glover who can hit 30 HRs with a ..860 OPS.
Harper is an average-ish fielder with an .830ish OPS (if you take out the one year of .1.100, which at this point has to be regarded as an outlier).
I keep wondering , should the O’s consider trading Machado? There is no way they can afford him long term, They already gave Davis a big deal, Machado could be looking at a 225-250 million deal for 5-7 years.
Machado is gonna get a ton more than that, and yes, if they aren’t contending when the deadline rolls around, I think moving him would be a good idea.
Machado is looking at 350-400M
I won’t be shocked if Machado or Harper are both traded to retool the farm system, The O’s could use that more, and they should think about trading Britton.
Don’t see Harper getting moved since the Nats are in their window right now. Don’t think they gave up a ton of prospects for Eaton, and gave out 400M to Strasburg and Scherzer just to take a step back
The nationals invested the money in pitching, I really don’t see them dishing out over 350-400 million on harper, I think he signs with the Yankees or Dodgers.
Machado and Harper won’t get anywhere near 400 millions. Thats where they might start but no team will pay that much for one player. Makes no sense these day to do that.
I think the max I would go on each is 240 , But out of both of them I would take Machado.
If you do not intend on making a legitimate attempt at resigning him, you cannot lose him for nothing.
If they are not contending next year or this year, i think they should trade him and Britton
I agree. Too many teams have had buyers remorse doling out huge contracts like that. Now, I believe his injuries are behind him, however, they both would absorb a huge portion of team payroll regardless of the “put fans in the seats” scenario. Whatever deal they both get will certainly have an opt-out.
There is no way the Dodgers entertain signing Harper. Their money is slated for Kersh and Kersh only. That be ridiculous to sign another LH stick especially considering this years splurge entailed their biggest signings. I still think they’re relatively quiet during 18. They maybe lock up Kersh and Grandal, but they remain relatively quite, because they still have to be cognizant of Seager Pederson and Urias extensions. Harper will be a yankee or nat.
Yanks could certainly pull it off.
Looking and getting are two very different animals!
You are correct about the Dodgers not signing him nor needing another LH bat especially with Bellinger just about ready. People don’t understand the Yankees have a glut in the outfield and by that time Blake Rutherford should be about ready.
I think people understand the OF glut. But I think people also realize that at some point they would look into trading from that glut for an ace. I still think they have that one Yankee type signing in that FA class. Harper just seems to fit in NY for some reason.
There’s no trading Ellsbury’s contract Frazier will be locked in one corner,while Judge will occupy the other. Even it Jacoby is relegated to a DH role at that point the Yanks have other options,plus the draft this year and next. The only money they will probably spend might be on pitching and any trade moves will moving middle infielders. The days of bloated contracts are over in NY.
No, I see them getting over 300, but it will be better to be the second guy to sign. Only the big market teams will be in on these players, so that’s the Dodgers, Yanks, Giants, Cubs, Red Sox, Angels, Detroit, Texas, and Washington.
I can see the Yanks signing Donaldson in 19, and Trout in 21.
Rutherford has one season of Rookie ball in the books, he’s just as likely to be in AA as he is to be MLB ready in two years.
I wouldn’t call those days over, they just signed Chapman to a fat contract.
26-year-old FAs that are perennial MVP contenders? They will both get a 10-year deal well over $350 million each. Considering the inflation in the game, $400 million is well within reach for both.
Don’t forget Philadelphia. Apparently they have a huge TV deal coming in and will have finished their rebuild just in time for 2018 free agency. I could see Machado there and can already picture Harper wearing a Yankees cap.
So basically, what you’re saying is that Bryce Harper in a “normal” year, according to you, is a very good hitter. And if he’s at the top of his game, he’s arguably the best hitter in baseball. All of this, and he’s only 24 years old.
Assuming he stays healthy this year and puts up his “normal” numbers at the very least, he’s going to get a huge contract. If he can come close to 2015 again, it’ll only get even more ridiculous. At his age, somebody will happily take a chance in hopes that he turns into 2015 Harper on a consistent basis. Either way, he has a LOT of years of very good hitting ahead of him, with the potential to be an absolute monster.
*Potential might not be the best word. A lot of players have “potential” to do ridiculous things (Machado included), but Harper has proven that he can actually do it over the course of an entire year. And that was as a 22 year old…
Harper had that monster year at 22 and hitters peak between 26 and 29. He is going to pull off another season or two like that before he is done.
I would argue the injury season last year was the outlier – he was only 22 in the MVP season and it would seem quite odd for a player with his skills to peak at 23. Also of course, selectively editing out the best season of Harper’s career to give Machado the higher career OPS is a pretty manipulative way of cherry-picking stats to get the result you want.
I would be unhappy with either due to the contract. I should mention I’m a Tigers fan. Mega deals almost never turn a positive value, even for two of the best players in the game. Brian Kenny has a good analysis of all 9 figure contracts in his new book. Very eye opening.
Totally agree
Another thing to consider is how many World Series have either won? Same with Trout. The best players in baseball don’t get teams to the World Series. Trout hasn’t been on great teams, but Harper has had some strong talent with the Nationals.
“Machado is an entire field hitter who hits to the situation. He can hammer majestic homers, but can also do other things to help a team win.”
Lord knows that is why I want to cough up 400 millions dollars over a ten year period to either of them. The more I pay in tickets and my Cable Company, the better I feel.
As an Oriole fan, it’s been real and its been fun. I say this every year and i stand by it . This time next year the big 3 of Machado Trout Harper will all be wearing different uniforms august 1 , 2018. Who will pay any of them. The big spenders already have premier players on high end deals at these positions. Maybe Machado can get a good deal with either Boston or Detroit but its gonna break the bank. Harper would be a perfect fit in san fran if he was a CF, and Trout is Trout. Trouts gonna be expensive but someone will pay. 10 year contracts are a thing of past but 250 million 5-6 years is coming.
New ownership in Detroit makes them more fiscally responsible. They won’t be coming to Detroit.
I think the Phillies might sign Machado.
I do think the Phillies will make a some bigs moves in the coming years to get a couple of super stars, they will have the money. I look for them to be in big on either Machado, Trout, or Harper. Remember Trout will be a free agen in 21 and he was a Philly fan growing up.
Machado to the Dodgers and Harper to the Yankees…why even bother waiting, sign them to a post dated contract.
Justin turner and corey seager prevent this move
Who is playing 3B for the Yankees on a long term deal? Headley won’t be there. Who is on a long term deal beyond 2018 in LA at 3B? For those two teams in RF? Both will be in the running for these guys.
Trout is under contract through 2020. He is not being moved.
It’s a good day when i can take my family to a game and spend 600 dollars on parking/ tickets / food/ drinks !!!
I used to get angry because the Tribe wouldn’t spend big money. The EE contract shocked me.
Now I’m happy they don’t even come into the discussion at prices guys like MM, BH, and MT are gonna be seeking.
The insane prices charged by Jerry Jones for the Cowboys is why my daughters have never seen the Cowboys play in person. It’s at least $750, if not $1,000 to take a family of four to a Cowboys game. For that price I’d rather take a vacation.
Yes, because I’m sure when Machado leaves, the Orioles are going to slash ticket prices
Realistically these guys will get about a 10 year deal worth roughly 27-33 million per year. I can’t see either one getting a 40 million per year deal. Hoping the Cardinals do something they never do and bid on Machado during his FA. They will be in need of a 3rd baseman/#3 hitter and I could see them going as high as $275-300 million on a 10 year deal considering his age, all the money they have been “saving”, and not to mention the new Fox Sports money will be rolling in.
The cards would be a solid fit for Machado but will the cards put out that kind of money for him
They’re definitely going to get paid more than that of they’re healthy
Both are going to get an AAV far more than Miggy’s or even the final 3 years of Trout’s deal. $35 million AAV will be the starting point for discussions and going up from there.
Span will be just fine. He’s having a good spring training defensively & his bat will come around. I think he’s got one more good season left in him.
Sure, the Tigers will probably be sellers should they get off to a bad start, JUST LIKE EVERY OTHER TEAM. The White Sox are probably the only team in sell mode regardless of how they get out of the gate.
Yeah, but that won’t happen…Tigers are a good bet to go to the World Series this year. Verlander, Fulmer and Norris will have good years. K Rod in the pen and Jimenez in the minors ready to take the reigns from him. JD could have a big year, miggie is miggie, and Castellanos is ready to bloom. Add in Kinsler and you’ve got a winning team.
There’s no such thing as being a good bet to go to the World Series.
$400M? Seriously? Ugh.
Baseball is a team game, neither the Nats or the O’s have won in the playoffs with Harper and ,Machado. I would rather pay less and get Donaldson., who will cost less and is the same player. He is just older. Donaldson, Trout, and Goldschmidt might be the better bargin down the road. Most long term big contracts are bad, especially at the end.
I agree the Dodgers won’t sign Harper especially if Puig shows signs of stardom. But with Crawford, Ethier money coming off the books along with others. The Dodgers will have money spend and I think Mochado will their target. They’re already paying Kershaw 31.8 million a year so even with a raise it won’t kill them.
Agree..Machado to dodgers
Teams would be irresponsible to sign 400 m deals. Stanton’s is bad enough. Cable subscriptions are already falling, advertising revenues are going through the floor, the bubble economy is about to burst bringing a third-world type economy to North America. No, teams or GM’s that sign these big deals won’t be working in a few years. Once the reset of the North American economy happens (2018-2023), then baseballs contracts will come back down to earth. Wait for it, it will happen.
The three best bets in the future are Kershaw, Trout, and Donaldson in my books. They have been consisitently the best performers in baseball for the last few years. They may not require the longevity in a contract when they are free agents, so they might be more of a good gamble compared to Machado and Harper. I would think the Dodgers keep
The three best bets in the future are Kershaw, Trout, and Donaldson in my books. They have been consisitently the best performers in baseball for the last few years. They may not require the longevity in a contract when they are free agents, so they might be more of a good gamble compared to Machado and Harper. I would think the Dodgers keep Kershaw, the Philles and Yanks go hard after Trout, and the Yanks get Donaldson. I think Machado goes to the Phillies, and Harper goes either the Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers, Rangers, or Astros.
Yah, but mega deals normally don’t come for players of this caliber at 26 years old… usually they’re already in their 30’s. Huge difference.
Don’t hold your breath jimmertee
We keep hearing bad things about Norris’ relationships with the pitchers he caught and his teammates. If it was just one article I’m not sure I would believe it, but with this Olney article there have now been 4 or 5 in the last few months. Where there is smoke, there is fire. Norris had the worst season offensively for a catcher in 100 years or so and he doesn’t get along with his pitchers and teammates? That is not good news for him in terms of signing a deal.
Cubs might ride the world series win and presumptive massive revenue wave into becoming the team with the highest payroll in baseball. Not suggesting they’ll sign one of Machado/Harper since they don’t have a clear opening for either, but I wouldn’t count them out.