This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.
As they open SunTrust Park for the 2017 season, the Braves have begun to transition toward competitiveness — though they carefully avoided any lengthy veteran entanglements this winter.
Major League Signings
- Bartolo Colon, SP: one year, $12.5MM
- Sean Rodriguez, IF: two years, $11MM
- R.A. Dickey, SP: one year, $8MM
- Kurt Suzuki, C: one year, $1.5MM
- Total spend: $33MM
Trades And Claims
- Acquired SP Jaime Garcia from Cardinals in exchange for INF Luke Dykstra, SP John Gant, SP Chris Ellis
- Acquired 2B Brandon Phillips and $13MM (covers all but $1MM of Phillips’s 2017 salary) from Reds in exchange for RP Andrew McKirahan, RP Carlos Portuondo
- Acquired 2B/OF Micah Johnson from Dodgers for PTBNL or cash
- Acquired RP Luke Jackson from Rangers for RP Brady Feigl, SP Tyrell Jenkins
- Acquired SP Luiz Gohara, RP Thomas Burrows from Mariners for OF Mallex Smith, RP Shae Simmons
- Acquired OF/C Alex Jackson, SP Tyler Pike (as PTBNL) from Mariners for SP Rob Whalen, SP Max Povse
- Claimed RP Kevin Chapman from Astros
- Claimed 1B/OF Adam Walker from Orioles
- Claimed RP Armando Rivero from Cubs in Rule 5 draft
Notable Minor League Signings
- Lane Adams, Andrew Albers, Xavier Avery, Emilio Bonifacio, Blaine Boyer, Rex Brothers, Sanders Commings, John Danks, Joel De La Cruz, David Hale, Sam Freeman, David Freitas, Balbino Fuenmayor, Blake Lalli, Jacob Lindgren, Kris Medlen, Eric O’Flaherty, Danny Reynolds, Matt Tuiasosopo, Colin Walsh
Extensions
- Ender Inciarte, OF: six years, $30.525MM ($9MM club option for 2022; $1.025MM buyout)
- Jim Johnson, RP: two years, $10MM
Notable Losses
- Jed Bradley (claimed), Ellis, Gant, Tuffy Gosewisch (claimed), Williams Perez (released), A.J. Pierzynski, Simmons, Smith, Chris Withrow (non-tendered)
[Braves Depth Chart; Braves Payroll Information]
Needs Addressed
The pace of moves coming from the Atlanta front office remains dizzying. This time around, while there were still many forward-looking transactions, the club increasingly turned its attention to investing in the 2017 roster.
That’s not to say that the Braves went wild in a push to win now; after all, the club won only 68 games in 2016, despite a strong finish. Instead, the vast bulk of the club’s investments in veteran players are of the one-year variety. The club clearly hopes to boost its on-field product with a new park opening while steering clear of the kinds of moves that could hamper more dedicated future efforts at contending.
GM John Coppolella promised that the rotation would be the focus, and he followed through on that early. Atlanta added two of the game’s oldest players, Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey, on mid-priced, one-year deals. Talented lefty Jaime Garcia joined the fold, too, in a deal that cost the organization two reasonably promising pitching prospects in John Gant and Chris Ellis.
All said, the rotation promises to be worlds better than the 2016 unit, though it’ll likely be more of a reliably solid unit than any kind of top-tier staff. With the trade rumors in the rear-view — at least until the deadline — top hurler Julio Teheran will look to repeat a strong season. High-octane righty Mike Foltynewicz seems the obvious choice for the fifth spot, and he’ll also seek to build off of the promise he showed in 2016.
The Braves would surely be glad to see that quintet succeed for a full season, though it’s possible to imagine a summer trade if the organization isn’t sticking in the postseason picture. Garcia, in particular, could hold appeal if he performs. Meanwhile, Atlanta will see whether Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, and Lucas Sims can regain their footing, while veterans such as John Danks, Andrew Albers, and perhaps old favorite Kris Medlen will take up spots in the depth department. Most importantly, perhaps, the club will closely watch the progress of touted arms as Sean Newcomb, Patrick Weigel, Max Fried, Touki Toussaint, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and the newly acquired Luiz Gohara as they plot a course for the future.
Despite all the changes in the rotation, the bullpen largely returns in its 2016 form. Jim Johnson took an extension just before reaching free agency, and he’s expected to handle closing duties. That job could be contested at some point during the year, though, particularly if Arodys Vizcaino can find his form or Mauricio Cabrera proves as overwhelming as his stuff. Josh Collmenter and Ian Krol are back after agreeing to arb deals, while Jose Ramirez also figures to have a spot locked down. Righty Chaz Roe, who showed well (11.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.60 ERA) in 20 frames after a mid-season claim, is in the mix too, though he’s struggled badly in Spring Training thus far. Rounding out the pen may come down to a camp battle involving veteran minor-league signees Eric O’Flaherty, Sam Freeman, Rex Brothers, Blaine Boyer, and perhaps also 40-man members Luke Jackson and Akeel Morris.
The Braves’ most notable moves on the position-player side came at second base. The team thought it had its man in Sean Rodriguez, who got a two-year deal after a career year in Pittsburgh, but a terrifying car crash left him with an injured shoulder and a lengthy rehab timeline. He could miss the majority of the 2017 campaign. That led the Braves to pivot back to Brandon Phillips, who was acquired for a light price and will hold down the fort at second while the team waits for top prospect Ozzie Albies to return from injury, finish his development, and join exciting young shortstop Dansby Swanson in the bigs.
While there was chatter that the Braves would pursue an upgrade behind the dish, the club ultimately passed on free agents such as Matt Wieters, Jason Castro, and the recovering Wilson Ramos. Instead, the club added Kurt Suzuki on a modest pact to join Tyler Flowers in some kind of time share. Anthony Recker remains on hand as a third option, so things are set for the time being. In the long term, though, the catching position remains one of uncertainty.
Questions Remaining
Most of the organization’s notable holes were plugged in some way, as might have been expected. But there’s plenty of variability on this roster, and there are a few areas which remain unsettled as the season draws near.
There was speculation before the offseason that Atlanta might look to upgrade at third base, where the team is set to feature Adonis Garcia. The 31-year-old has shown flashes of ability in his brief time in the majors, but he has yet to show the kind of consistency that warrants regular playing time. Garcia improved with the bat and the glove after a rough first half in 2016, though he still ended the year with a below-average .273/.311/.406 batting line and negative grades on the bases and in the field.
To be fair, parting with significant resources to add a player such as Todd Frazier (via trade) or Justin Turner (through free agency) probably wasn’t sensible from a long-term perspective. And it’s certainly possible that Atlanta foresaw a scenario where Rodriguez would have shifted to the hot corner upon the ascension of Albies, or where Garcia would give way to prospect Rio Ruiz. But the Braves could have placed a smaller bet on someone like Luis Valbuena or Trevor Plouffe to bolster the third base situation, so there were alternatives. Whether the team made the right call to give Garcia another full season of playing time remains to be seen.
The outfield, too, still seems in need of a supplemental player. Ender Inciarte is undoubtedly deserving of the vast bulk of the time in center, which he’ll surely receive (more on him below). But Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis aren’t exactly mid-prime corner options. While they’ll see the lion’s share of the time, their own value would likely be maximized if they receive regular rest.
Among the organization’s current options, veteran Emilio Bonifacio may have the inside track on such a role. He’s more of a utilityman than a true outfielder, but would generally meet the team’s reported desire for a right-handed hitter who can play center. (Bonifacio does have a good bit of MLB experience there; the switch-hitter has also traditionally fared better against southpaw pitching.) Other internal reserve possibilities, such as Micah Johnson and Adam Walker, don’t quite match the job description, and Johnson is now out of the picture in the short term anyhow after suffering a fractured wrist. There’s been some chatter that the Braves are interested in veteran Angel Pagan, though it seems the team hasn’t offered enough to draw him in.
There are broader bench questions, too. The left-handed-hitting Jace Peterson is a rather obvious choice to earn one spot; he’ll likely spend some time spelling the team’s right-handed-hitting second and third basemen. Otherwise, light-hitting utilityman Chase d’Arnaud seems to have the inside track. If it’s d’Arnaud, Peterson, and Bonifacio to go with the second catcher, and the Braves use an eight-man pen, that doesn’t leave much in the way of offensive ability on the bench.
On the pitching side, there is certainly a fair bit of depth, and the bullpen is in solid shape. Despite all the additions to the rotation, though, that unit may not be as great an asset as might be hoped. Dickey and Colon are both over 40; while that hasn’t stopped them from being sturdy and effective to this point, there’s always the possibility of a significant fall-off given their age. Garcia carries long-term health questions and wasn’t that effective in 2016. And while there’s talent beyond that group, only Teheran has clearly established himself as a high-quality MLB starter.
It obviously wouldn’t have made much sense for the Braves to prioritize 2017 too heavily in making winter moves. But the club did dabble in the market for such quality, controllable arms as Jose Quintana and Chris Archer. Any such acquisition would’ve been a major trade that could well have required paying too high a price (quite possibly including Swanson), but clearly that kind of arm would’ve represented a more significant upgrade. The Braves will be content to roll the dice with what they have, and to keep knocking on those doors, but as presently constituted the rotation has plenty of potential to disappoint.
Deal Of Note
The rebuilding process isn’t just about securing young talent. It’s also about sorting through it and planning ahead for when it’s all available at the MLB level.
When the Braves struck the stunning deal last winter that sent Shelby Miller to the Diamondbacks, much of the focus landed on Swanson — and rightfully so. But the deal also delivered Blair and the underappreciated Ender Inciarte, who many thought might be flipped.
Inciarte, however, wasn’t dealt. And though he struggled early, he turned things on in the second half and ended up with another 3+ WAR campaign. While the Braves had another chance to weigh trade offers, the club chose instead to commit to the Super Two-eligible player this winter in the form of a five-year contract extension.
The total outlay to Inciarte — just over $30MM — is low enough that it won’t hurt too badly if the investment falls flat. That’s an unlikely outcome, as his defensive and baserunning abilities give him a fairly sturdy floor as a useful fourth outfielder even in a downside scenario.
While the Braves have been downright aggressive in hunting for high-upside players in recent years, and have also committed some near-term funds to veterans, the Inciarte deal is another kind of transaction entirely. Much like the division-rival Phillies’ nearly identical deal with Odubel Herrera, this extension represents the placement of a piece of the puzzle for seasons far beyond the present. Particularly given the most likely alternative — shopping Inciarte for yet more pre-MLB talent — the contract is as clear an indication as any that the organization is ramping up for contention.
Overview
Few will pick the Braves to make the postseason in 2017, or even to remain in the hunt as summer turns to fall. But there’s an expectation for improvement — and, perhaps, also the beginnings of some pressure. Fan expectations are rising with the new park and new player investments. Some of the organization’s hyped upper-level players are entering the phase where they will need to prove their worth in the majors or step aside. And the plans of the front office will increasingly be put to the test as the organization seeks to convert the talent it has accumulated into wins.
What’s your take on the Braves’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Brixton
I honestly think the Lindgren MiLB deal is the best move they made
MySoxAreRed
Lindgren is always a beast in ootp
Hopefully that will carry over
SamFuldsFive
Lmao, no.
fatmaneatsalot
I’d like to think the braves would be a .500 or better team, but I think most likely they’ll be better then last year at probably 75-78 wins.
lesterdnightfly
72 to 76 wins. Terrible bench; holes in starting lineup, iffy starters, fair pen. The past-prime pitchers are there to keep them in most games. This year is to get fans to see the new stadium and develop some young’uns. Lots of roster shuffling. Rebuild could gain momentum, or it could stall.
arp7241
Woah great way to restate the entire article we just read…
lesterdnightfly
Not my intention; just my opinion. Look at it as a free Cliff Notes version for those who need to cram for the exam.
metseventually 2
They’re still at least 2-3 years away from being able to at least contend with the Mets and Nats. I think this rebuild will back fire.
realgone2
Your ass is still chapped from ’99? C’mon dude that was almost 20 years ago.
Bravos95
The Mets? That’s a good one lmao !!!
Chebert
Shouldn’t it read “Brandon Phillips AND $13,000,000 ?” The Braves acquired Phillips, so they are responsible for paying his salary, they wouldn’t be sending cash to the Reds.
Steve Adams
Indeed it should. Thanks for that — I made that adjustment.
TradeAcuna
The Braves are only paying 1 mil for Phillips! Solid deal until Albies shows up!
The baseball kid
Come on braves just rebuild already you went worst to first once and you are probably not gonna again. Filling your roster with old pitchers and strikeout artists and everything else on short term bounce back deals is not gonna win you a WS
realgone2
Well, I guess we shouldn’t expect much insight from a kid.
RunDMC
“You are probably not gonna again” is right – they’d have to finish last, which even against odds will be tough to do with PHI and MIA (largest contract/worst farm in MLB) in the same division.
No one stated this team would do anything but show progress finishing at .500 or better. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and we needed to buy time on the farm for our prospects without selling the farm for bad contracts.
trose6780
I thought Medlens deal was voided?
Steve Adams
Jordan Walden’s deal was voided.
charmin519
The bench situation really pisses me off. I can understand a four man bench if you have four strong bench players, but we have serious scrubs on the bench. I will be extremely disappointed if we don’t make a move before the end of spring break. Guys like Moya on the Tigers are out of options and we’re trying to stash Chaz Roe? Please…………….
olereb
The braves are heading in the right direction. I believe we will be improved from last year, but not enough to challenge for playoffs. I do believe we need a long term solution at catcher, I believe everything else will work itself out. I would hate to be a sp in the braves organization though, you better get better or someone will pass you by. Pitching wins championships and fans we have it for years to come.
Dookie Howser, MD
Disagree on the SP comment. Nobody outside of Tehren has a guaranteed spot in that rotation. Both Dickey and Colon are ancient and could break – or they could be solid pitchers on a bad team and get traded. Everybody else is just a gamble. Folty looks to have an advatange to start the season, but the rest of that group will have plenty of opportunities to get starts in the MLB, which is a lot more than can be said of guys in most farm systems.
RunDMC
Hence the “years” to come. We have a lot of pitching at the lower levels last year, and some progress to the upper levels and possibly MLB this year. You’re right, there should be some starts down the road for some guys, as Garcia/Colon could be easily shopped near the deadline with some good starts. Hopefully we get to see a cup of coffee from Fried/Newcomb with some growth leading up to it.
Dookie Howser, MD
I understand that these guys aren’t ready yet (and many clearly weren’t ready last year when they were essentially forced in earlier than expected), but acting like there is already a SP surplus for 2018 or 2019 because the Braves have a bunch of prospects in the low/mid minors is a bit premature.
Don’t get me wrong, I like Coppy’s strategy of playing the odds and stocking up on lots of pitching prospects, hoping some will pan out, but he is also smart enough to know that in all likelihood a majority will not.
em650r
If the Braves do not contend by June I think they will trade Phillips, Kemp and Colon
RunDMC
BP has a no-trade clause that carried over from CIN (in which he vetoed 3 deals), so he’s going to heavily dictate any trade partners. Releasing him is most likely the direction they’d go with a) poor play & b) Albies showing he’s ready. However, that would be a harsh stance to a hometown boy.
Colon could be trade bait along with Garcia, but Kemp will need to continue from 2nd half last season to be worth much of anything, and even then, it’ll be tough. I’ll be shocked if we have his replacement ready by that time, especially with Dustin Peterson getting injured in spring training. Acuna still looks 1-2 years out because of his age, not because of his play.
Dookie Howser, MD
Do 10/5 rights carryover if you waive it and get moved to a different team?
exocraze
No, they don’t, but part of the reason Phillips accepted a trade to Atlanta after having declined one a few months ago was because Coppy and Co agreed to give him a limited no trade clause. And I think he also gets a bonus if we do trade him, if memory serves correctly.
Dookie Howser, MD
Found some info here. Sounds like he has a 12team limited no trade clause in his original contract which still applies. There is also talk of a $5ooK “trade bonus”, but not sure if that applies to all 29 teams or just the 12.
tomahawktake.com/2017/02/12/atlanta-braves-policy-…
anoff
That picture of Bartolo Colon though…it looks like it’s from the Celebrity game during All Star Weekend…
Dookie Howser, MD
I like to imagine that the ball is made of frosting and dangling by a string just out of reach.
roberty
I think the Braves played it really smart this winter. Blair, Wisler, Sims, Nukem and possibly even Fried or Wiegel could be ready to move into the rotation at some point this season. Minter, Morris and Luke Jackson could be up by the end of the year, Albies will be ready soon and if Rio Ruiz and Dustin Peterson make enough noise we could potentially deal an outfielder, half our infield, 3/5 of the rotation and half the bullpen and have a better team on the last day of the season than we had on opening day.
Considering what Coppy got in return for KJ, Francoeur, Dario Alvarez, Lucas Harrell, Aybar, and Cervanka last season, we could be looking at a boat load of interesting (but unspectacular) prospects if we can trade Colon, Dickey, Adonis, Jaime Garcia, Phillips, Markakis, Jim Johnson and some other relievers. I’m thinking Paco Rodriguez and Ian Krol.
It should be a fun season.
NL_East_Rivalry
Interesting but unspectacular?
I think Coppy just started salivating
Dookie Howser, MD
Which outfielder do you think would get moved? They just signed Ender to a long term deal, they having been trying to shop Markakis since they signed him it seems like with no takers, and in order to get rid of Kemp the Braves would become the 3rd team to be paying him not to play in their city anymore.
And what half of the infield? Garcia and Phillips? Can’t see them drawing a whole lot of interest. Maybe Jace Peterson, but what kind of return would he bring?
bravesfan
Dookie, most of these players that he mentions would draw “some” interest. Like most of our deals we would mostly likely eat money for prospects. Doesn’t mean we are getting top end prospects though. Thing is, teams that are contending get desperate and make someone odd moves. Although most of the players might not be starters for some teams (even though they start for us). They would make a strong bench piece. Garcia might not be a game changer as a starter, but he’ll have a ton of experience/ABs. Contenders who need a 3B/outfielder that has a little pop would love Garcia has a bench piece, assuming he doesn’t tank this year. We won’t get a top 100 prospect, but we might get a solid minor league ball player in return that could have some impact down the road.
RunDMC
A solid minor league ball player is exactly what Coppy and Co. hone in on….someone with a high-ceiling that has been achieving less-than-desirable results, in hopes a change of scenery will do them good (i.e. former first rd picks: Alex Jackson from SEA, Luke Jackson & Travis Demeritte from TEX).
RiseAgainst3598
Aybar was lost during the season to a trade
Dookie Howser, MD
And calling it a “loss” is questionable as well
realgone2
It was a gain. I’ll tell you that.
maxaxle
10/5 do not carry over, but the Braves have said they will honor his limited no-trade clause (12 teams), and pay him $500,000 if he is traded to a team not on the list.
So there are still plenty of options for the Braves trading him, if they so desire.
RunDMC
Thanks for that. For some reason I thought it was a full no-trade, not even accounting for the 10-and-5 rights. Good to know there’s still 17 teams left.
maxaxle
RunDMC’s point is that even if the majority don’t pan out, we’ll still have a great crop of pitchers, because we have amassed such a collection. It is fair to assume a few will pan out.
RunDMC
Exactly, we’ve overhauled our scouting and development department – the one’s responsible for the last 2 drafts, more so than the obtaining Newcomb, Fried, Wisler, Blair, etc. Yes, it’d be great if any of those guys pan out (c’mon Fried!), but just wait for some our draft picks. It says something about the Braves that they feel comfortable with their development to get guys coming off injuries or major surgeries and be able to, to some extent, resuscitate their careers. Combine that with $$$ for free agents and that’s something.
Coppy has said multiple times that the depth of the farm system accounts for a typical failure rate where there are going to be guys that don’t put it altogether, so we’re not completely depending on Newcomb learning control or Blair not looking like a deer in the headlights, but that we develop arms with promise from the ground up including Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, Kyle Muller, Kolby Allard, and many more.
bravesfan
I bet BP will be ok to be traded to a contender toward the end of the season, which if he even hits like he did last year, we should get a decent return. Doesn’t his contract end this season anyways. So it’s not like he would be stuck in a new location forever.
therealryan
The Braves are doing the right job by collecting so many young arms, but the failure rate is huge, even for top 100 types. Just getting one 1.5 fWAR pitcher takes about 5 top 100 prospects and getting one 2.5 fWAR pitcher takes about 10 top 100 types. The advantage is when they do hit, you are sitting pretty. Unfortunately, it doesn’t happen nearly enough as fans think it does.
siddfinch1079
Wow, I am surprised/impressed by the Braves off-season. While the guys they acquired aren’t all-stars yet or anymore (besides the ageless wonder, Bartolo Colon) they are definite upgrades and some have the potential of being regular contributors. Good mix of veteran and young ballplayers there to hold them over for a season or two.
inkstainedscribe
It’s pretty difficult to grade the Braves’ offseason until we learn how the new ballpark plays. If it’s a launching pad like Fulton County, then the team’s general lack of power will be a problem. OTOH, if it’s pitcher-friendly like Turner, then they may have done pretty well — so long as Inciarte doesn’t mind running about 50 miles a game tracking down the balls Markakis and Kemp can’t reach!
citizen
I think they traded away too many of the propestcs the braves were building on for 2017 and beyond for mediocre players or too many players will tbd upswing that never materialized after they traded away their mlb talent a few years ago. Dickey and Colon will be a bust, i dont see either of them pitching past june. its 1988 all over again for the braves.
RiverCatsFilms
Braves WS champs with Bartolo Colon
BravesBoi
I think if everything breaks right (Colon and Dickey pitch well and don’t get injured being the biggest if) and a couple other teams struggle, I think we could possibly get a Wild Card spot. Now, I don’t think we will, I’m just saying crazier things have happened. I just have one proposition though that I think would help a lot. I think they should swap Collmenter and Folty. It seems like they are gonna have Collmenter come out of the bullpen for some reason even though he’s pretty much been a starter his whole career. I think with Folty’s velocity, having him come out of the bullpen for a year or so would work out great, and I think it would help him with his confidence, as he has flashed some promise, but has not put it all together yet and still gets knocked around a decent amount. I think that would work out well for both guys until Folty is completely ready to be a starter