MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes just released the first run of his 2017-18 free-agent power rankings. While the list will obviously change quite a bit over the course of the season to come, it’s interesting to note that four outstanding pitchers open up at the front.
Really, every member of this impressive group of veteran starters could realistically end up on top of the list by season’s end (as could a few other players). Tim has already stated his views on the preliminary ordering; now it’s time for MLBTR’s readership to weigh in.
Here are the four hurlers, in Tim’s order, with a brief affirmative case for why each ought to be considered the frontrunner to become the best free-agent starter:
Jake Arrieta, Cubs: None of the other pitchers has done what Arrieta did in 2015, when he posted a 1.77 ERA over 229 innings and took the Cy Young over two outstanding competitors. While he showed some worrying signs over the second half last year, he’s still throwing premium stuff and has been a workhorse of late.
Yu Darvish, Rangers: If one of these hurlers can be said to have the most upside, perhaps it’s Darvish. He paces this group in generating swings and misses and converting those into strikeouts. If he can return to his early-career 200+ inning pace, all bets are off on his earnings.
Johnny Cueto, Giants (can opt out of current contract): Though his long MLB tenure makes it seem as if Cueto is older than the others on this list, that’s not really the case; he’s only 19 days senior to Arrieta. And he’s certainly the most accomplished of the group overall, having turned in three seasons of 200+-inning, sub-3.00 ERA ball over the past five years.
Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees: The arm health remains a long-term question, but at what point might Tanaka’s age and consistency push past that consideration? He did manage to turn in 199 2/3 frames last year, after all, and will pitch the entire 2017 season at 28 years of age. Over his 490 total MLB frames, Tanaka owns a strong 3.12 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and just 1.5 BB/9.
So, which of these hurlers do you see ending the year with the best free-agent case? (Link for app users.)
Tough call. They’re all at about the same level, they’ve all had injuries and what have you in the past, I feel like what happens in 2017 will pretty much decide who gets the biggest deal. All unquestionable aces though and I cant see anyone getting under 100M unless they perform very poorly in 2017.
From a pure long term outlook, health and results point of view, I put Cueto.
Arrieta doesn’t really get deep into games, and is pretty streaky with his dominance
Darvish + Tanaka have their own health problems, and personally I don’t view Tanaka as an undeniable #1. Hes in that Hamels, Jordan Zimmermann kinda tier.
Outside of a few months with the Royals, Cueto been basically a undeniable ace for like 6 seasons in a row now. 2.73 ERA with a 145 OPS+ over his last 1,100 IP, most of which was in the bandbox in Cincy
Perfectly stated. I agree 100%
I agree with the Tanaka statement, he’s the guy who’s a strong #2 but could be the go to #1 on ~1/2 of MLB teams right now. But he’s not top tier “elite”
I give Tanaka a lot of credit for being good in Yankee Stadium, a place very few can do that in anymore (apparently).
I agree, Cueto is fantastic but he’s also had his injuries, which you have to consider.
Cueto’s had full season in 4 of the last 5, and really hasn’t had much of an issue since 2013, which was a lat, not arm related
He’s had a bunch of different injuries in 2011 and 2013, I looked it up.
so he had a few injuries 3-5 years ago.
1
Dang it!
Trying to agree with Brixton.
Damn autocorrect.
Cueto’s the class of these pitchers by far even based solely on health. But I mean, cmon, he’s the only one of these guys that had been an ace(or at ace level) his whole career
I mean, Yu finished 2nd in the cy young, that’s ace level.
Highest k/9 behind nolan ryan/big unit ect, if hes not an ace, who is?
OPS+? I think you mean ERA+
you’d be correct.
I also think if Arrieta goes off again like in 2015, he’d get the biggest deal – although he kind of insulted California pretty bad on election night on twitter, I doubt any of those teams would go after him.
I highly doubt that will weigh too much into their baseball decisions
What’d he say about the best state in the union? 🙂
“Time for Hollywood to pony up and head for the border #illhelpyoupack #beatit.”
I had to look it up to. The fact that people on a MLB news specific website didn’t know that, makes me think that the general population of fans will not remember in a year from now, either
I would give him an extra million just for that tweet alone. 99% of Californians dont give two squats about Hollywood elitist.
Cueto averaged 6.9 IP per start and Arrietta 6.4 last year and 6.9 in 2015. All depends I guess on whether you think he can get back to the control he showed in 2014-2015, which would allow him to push the 7 IP/start mark.
I’d rank them Cueto, Darvish, Arrietta, Tanaka.
Darvish is the best if healthy. Otherwise I’d go Cueto.
I’d agree Darvish has the highest ceiling but he’s had the big injury, Cueto is probably the safest bet. But they all fit on every team, so there will probably be big bidding wars over all of them.
Lol. Tanaka was easily a top 10 pitcher last season (and for the better part of his early contract years) and there is enough reason to believe, this could be his best season yet. Just an outside spectator on this one, but the comments lol “Tanaka #2” lol.
And out of this bunch, again, Tanaka, and by a wide margin. Yes, I’m very bullish on him right now. He’s my AL Cy Young pick right now. And no, that’s not just based on spring training. I’ve had him pegged for winning one last year (which didn’t happen), this year or next. So if not now, it’s going to be next year.
And he’s the only one of this bunch that’s trending up..
Arrieta now needs to prove that he didn’t blow his arm out. Most likely not, but as stated, some concerns are building.
Darvish is the same. Needs to prove his health. Unlike Tanaka, who has been perfectly healthy actually.
Cuento is solid, but at some point, the innings are going to catch up, so I’m suspect to another long term contract with him.
This talk about Tanaka’s arm and “staying healthy”. He has actually been very healthy and the talk of his arm applies to any pitcher, who at any moment, can pop their UCL. So I’m not buying that logic until it happens. He’s in the very top tier this season.
By fWAR, since 2014:
Arrieta: 16.1 (6 overall)
Cueto: 14.2 (9 overall)
Tanaka: 10.0 (21 overall)
Darvish: 6.4 (59th overall in 244 IP)
So, they’re all elite. No question.
Tanaka 11.7WAR
JAf used fWAR which is 10.0. You looked up his rWAR.
Did you miss the part where Tanaka only made 44 starts in his first two seasons. Or did you miss the part about him having a partially-torn UCL and is at a much higher risk than anyone else to need TJS down the road? Let’s not lie to ourselves and call him “perfectly healthy”.
“Perfectly healthy”? How is averaging 25 starts a year for three years reconcile with that take?
How has he been a top 10, exactly? Over the last 3 years he certainly has not been a top 10 pitcher.
5.4 WAR 2016. Not even Arrieta was that solid last year. He’s trending upward.
You said “(and for the better part of his early contract years) “. Why are you just referring to 2016?
Cueto had a rWAR of 5.6, so that would put him ahead.
And I’ve watched enough baseball, so it’s a gut feeling and I hope for Tanaka I’m right, but he’s going to have one heck of a season.
If you take away Arrieta’s last 3 starts against Pittsburgh he had a great season
If you did that you’d have to take away 3 terrible starts from the other pitchers as well. That’d just make them all better.
It’s kind of a pointless statement
Yeah, I don’t particularly understand the common usage of the “They were good if you ignore the times they were bad” argument.
Too soon to know. So much will depend on this years performance
If Jake Arritea can have a season anything close to what he did in 2015 then I would like to see the Cubs try to resign him but, I would not go any higher than 6 years and 150 mil.. If he won’t take it then let him walk..
As a Cubs fan (Braves fan first though), thank you for your time and excellent performance Mr. Arrieta and I wish you the best of luck on your new team.
Based on track record Cueto has the highest floor of the four mentioned. But Tanaka has the highest ceiling based on his age and relative newness (2.5 years) to the MLB. If Tanaka can stay healthy this year I think he will end up getting the biggest contract of the four.
Great Analysis! Agree 100%
If you think tanaka has w higher ceiling than Yu Darvish you need to see a psychiatrist