For the rebuilding Brewers, the 2017 season will serve as an audition to determine who will be part of the team’s future. Step one in the process will begin this spring with several players in the mix for openings.
Here are some notable position battles to keep an eye on.
CENTER FIELD and RIGHT FIELD
Keon Broxton
Age: 27
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’22 season
Options remaining: 1
Domingo Santana
Age: 24
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: 1
Hernan Perez
Age: 26
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season
Options remaining: Out of options
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Age: 29
Bats: L
Contract Status: 1 year, $900K; projected to become a free agent after ’19 season
Options remaining: Out of options
Lewis Brinson
Age: 23
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’23 season
Options remaining: 3
Other candidates: Ryan Cordell, Kyle Wren
Sporting a .125/.253/.188 slash line in 75 plate appearances, Broxton was, unsurprisingly, optioned to the minors in early July. That he was recalled later in the month and inserted into the starting lineup was a surprise, but he rewarded the Brewers’ faith in him with a stellar performance over his final 169 plate appearances (.294/.399/.538), including eight homers and 16 stolen bases. The center field job is likely his to lose.
Santana also left quite a late-season impression with a .301/.350/.581 slash line over his final 100 plate appearances. That should also give him a leg up this spring, although his 32.4% strikeout rate presents enough of a concern that he won’t just be handed the starting right field job. Of course, giving him regular playing time during a rebuilding season is how you find out if he’s capable of making the proper adjustments.
Perez probably won’t be named as a “starter”, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be in the starting lineup more often than not in 2017. With his defensive versatility—he played every position but catcher and pitcher in 2016— and an intriguing stat line in his first opportunity at semi-regular playing time in the Majors (.730 OPS, 13 HR, 34 SB in 430 plate appearances), there’s no question that Perez has tremendous value to the Brewers. It just might not be—and doesn’t have to be—as a regular outfielder.
Nieuwenhuis, who started 68 games in center field and 22 games in right field in 2016, gives the Brewers a veteran alternative to bridge the gap to the team’s top outfield prospects. Like the other outfield candidates, he strikes out a ton, but he also showed some power in 2016 (13 HR, 18 2B in 392 plate appearances).
After being acquired from the Rangers in the Jonathan Lucroy on August 1st, Brinson asserted himself as the Brewers’ top prospect heading into the season with a .382/.387/.618 slash line in 93 plate appearances for Triple-A Colorado Springs. He wasn’t having the best season prior to the trade (.237/.280/.431 in 326 Double-A plate appearances), however, and his poor walk-to-strikeout ratio (19 BB, 85 K between Double-A and Triple-A) is an indication that he’s probably isn’t ready to handle Major League pitching on a regular basis.
Prediction: Broxton, Santana
CATCHER
Andrew Susac
Age: 27
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: 2
Jett Bandy
Age: 27
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 or ’22 season
Options remaining: 1
Manny Piña
Age: 30
Bats: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: Out of options
A 2nd round pick by the Giants in 2011 and one of their top prospects soon after, Susac has put up solid numbers throughout the minors (.246/.354/.424) despite being sidelined by injury more often than not—he has played in an average of 86 games per season. Regardless, he was never going to have an opportunity with Buster Posey ahead of him, which is partly why the Giants were willing to include him in the deal for reliever Will Smith at the 2016 trade deadline.
Not only will Susac need to prove that he can stay healthy, he’ll also have to beat out Bandy, who showed some power as a rookie with the Angels in 2016. In 231 plate appearances, the former 31st round pick had eight homers and nine doubles while throwing out 40% of attempted base stealers (19-for-48). Susac’s familiarity with the Brewers’ pitching staff—he spent most of September in the Majors and started four games behind the plate; Bandy was acquired this offseason—could give him an edge.
Piña, a journeyman who slashed .254/.346/.394 in 81 late-season plate appearances for the Brewers in 2016, is most likely competing to be the backup. But since neither Bandy or Susac has earned the right to be handed an MLB job, Piña should have at least an outside chance at regular playing time.
Prediction: Susac
STARTING ROTATION (ALL SPOTS)
Junior Guerra
Age: 32
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: 1
Matt Garza
Age: 33
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $12.5MM; $13MM vesting or $5MM club option for ’18
Options remaining: Can’t be optioned without consent
Wily Peralta
Age: 28
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $4.275MM; projected to become a free agent after ’19 season
Options remaining: 3
Chase Anderson
Age: 29
Throws: R
Contract Status: 1 year, $2.45MM; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season
Options remaining: 1
Zach Davies
Age: 24
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’21 season
Options remaining: 2
Jimmy Nelson
Age: 28
Throws: R
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’20 season
Options remaining: 2
Tommy Milone
Age: 30
Throws: L
Contract Status: 1 year, $1.25MM; projected to become a free agent after ’18 season
Options remaining: Out of options
Josh Hader
Age: 23
Throws: L
Contract Status: Pre-Arbitration; projected to become a free agent after ’23 season
Options remaining: 3
Other candidates: Jorge Lopez, Taylor Jungmann, Brent Suter, Aaron Wilkerson, Brandon Woodruff
After making his first MLB start last May at the age of 31, Guerra went on to be the team’s “ace” in 2016. Unfortunately, an elbow injury slowed him down late in the season and, in all likelihood, hurt his value enough that the Brewers weren’t able to flip him to a contender during the offseason. Barring any setbacks with his elbow, he’ll have a good chance of taking the ball on Opening Day.
Garza wasn’t terrible in 2016, posting a 3.72 ERA over his last 12 starts, but his contract status makes it likely that the Brewers won’t keep him around for the entire season. If he reaches 115 innings—approximately 20-23 starts—his $13 million option for 2018 will vest. This will also make it difficult to trade him. Even if he boosts his trade value with a strong 1st half performance, teams will be wary of taking on his 2018 salary. As a result, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if the Brewers released him if he performs poorly this spring.
CORRECTION: In addition to pitching 115 innings for his 2018 option to vest, he would ALSO need to make 39 starts (110 starts from 2014-17) and not finish the season on the Disabled List. He will not make 39 starts and, therefore, his 2018 option will not vest. The Brewers will hold a $5MM club option. This makes it very likely that he’ll stick around and the Brewers will hope he can turn things around and draw some trade interest.
A mid-season demotion seemed to wake up a struggling Peralta, who responded with 10 very good starts to end the season (2.92 ERA, 61.2 IP, 55 H, 16 BB, 51 K). It saved him from being non-tendered this offseason and, along with being out of options, should give him an edge in this competition.
Anderson and Davies both proved to be solid back-of-the-rotation pitchers in 2016. Nelson has the potential to be more, but an awful finish (7.28 ERA over last 11 starts) could mean that he’s, surprisingly, an underdog to make the Opening Day rotation.
Despite getting knocked around in 2016, Milone should not be underestimated in this competition. He has had plenty of success as a starting pitcher with the A’s and Twins. He’s also out of options and, unlike the aforementioned candidates, he’s left-handed. That should ensure that he gets a long look before the team determines whether he’s a better fit in the rotation or the bullpen.
Not only is Hader the Brewers’ best pitching prospect, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline each rank him as the best left-handed pitching prospect in the game. He also has 14 (mostly very good) Triple-A starts under his belt while posting an impressive 11.5 K/9. Considering that he wouldn’t be expected to take on a full workload as a rookie, not to mention the potential drawback of starting his MLB service time clock on Opening Day, it’s highly unlikely that Hader is in the Majors in early April.
Prediction: Guerra, Garza, Anderson, Davies, Peralta
Jeez, I’d think Jorge Lopez could at least get a mention in the list of starting pitcher candidates.
Lopez pitched himself out of the Brewers plans going forward when he stunk last year. He’ll be gone soon
Lopez was stellar in winter ball and re-established himself. He’s right behind if not even with Hader.
I thought the same thing. And what does Burgos have to do to get another chance. He should be right behind Lopez.
And Jungman probably goes before Lopez. No mention.
Lopez was stellar in winter ball after struggling last year. He’s very much in the picture.. Jungmann was fine toward the end of the year in Biloxi and is a year removed from posting a 3.77 ERA in 21 big league starts. Both certainly need to be mentioned ahead of Suter (who’s a reliever) and Wilkerson who might make the AAA roster but is no better than 12th on the starter depth chart.
Behind the top 7 are Hader, Lopez, Jungmann, Woodruff, Burgos, and Ortiz, before you get to Wilkerson.
Jungmann is now a reliever going forward.
The brewers have a very interesting group of young players
I wouldn’t call that interesting
brinson, ray, diaz, hader, ortiz + what they already have on the mlb club (and i’m probably higher on trent clark than i should be)…I would, but i guess you’re entitled to your opinion.
Diplan, Ponce, Nottingham, Harrison, Gatewood.
If the Cubs are going to win 100 games a year the next few seasons, may as well spend it developing some talent and possibly contending for a wildcard.
Then in 2019/2020, you ramp up, sign a free agent or two, and go for it.
“I wouldn’t call that interesting” It’s interesting in the fact that guys like Broxton and Santana showed flashes of tremendous ability and Arcia is an extremely talented shortstop. Plus they still have Braun. There’s a lot we don’t know yet about this group and they could surprise. Villar opened eyes last year. More could follow. Not saying playoffs but they should not be entirely dismissed. Only the Cubs look strong in the division.
Garcia is OK I guess
Try to keep up with baseball Ethan.
I’m pretty sure Peralta only has 2 options remaining since he was demoted last season.
Besides the 115 innings, Garza also has to:
– Start 110 games between 2014-17 (start 39 games in 2017)
– Not finish the 2017 season on the DL
Unless he completes all of these, his option will not vest.
Is Travis Shaw a lock for the first or third base job?
Has to be. Depending on how he and Santana do, he could split between 3rd and right regularly.
I would say he is a lock for third with Thames covering first. I’m actually really interested to see how he does, I thought he was a good pickup.
Shaw’s got the inside track and will start the year as the 3B, but he’ll likely be platooned with Perez, and if he struggles, don’t think Counsell will hesitate playing Perez there regularly. That might not please his boss who traded Thornburg to get Shaw, but Counsell likes Perez a lot and will look to find him AB’s.
Garda “was” terrible in 2016.
Garda
Good gosh….Garza
Haha, you do have 5 minutes to edit a comment once it’s posted.
Not on the app.
Tommy Milone’s signing was advertised as a bullpen upgrade so it looks like he’ll be the long man even though he is now being stretched out.
Kirk Niewenhuis’s spot on the roster flummoxes me.
Im also not sure if it’s a sign of depth or the natural ebbs and flows of young talent, but most of the Brewers top prospects from ’16 have dipped and replaced by 6 of the Top 100 in the game. So if players like Clark, Phillips and Nottingham rebound, THEN I think this is a very interesting team.
Captain Kirk had some of the most egregious home/road splits ever last year. I suspect that will normalize a bit.
Good lord, you know it’s gonna be a long season when the battle for rotation places is listed as “all spots”.
I disagree with the “all spots” for the rotation. Guerra, Anderson, and Davies are probably locks. Be interesting to see who comes out between Garza, Nelson, and Peralta.