As a result of a somewhat disappointing 2016 that began with World Series aspirations and ended with a third-place finish in the AL West, the Astros have been aggressive in upgrading their roster this offseason. Since November, Houston has either traded for or signed Brian McCann, Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Nori Aoki and Charlie Morton in an attempt to beef up a roster that won 84 games last season. You’ll notice that only one of those five – Morton – is a starting pitcher, and he’s a back-end type who has dealt with a laundry list of injuries during his career.
The Astros’ inability to acquire a front-line starter this winter to join Morton and others in their rotation hasn’t been for a lack of trying, of course. To this point, the team has pursued trades for ex-White Sox and now-Red Sox ace Chris Sale, current ChiSox No. 1 Jose Quintana, various members of the Rays’ rotation – including Chris Archer – as well as Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura of the Royals. Astros president Reid Ryan has even publicly opined that the club is missing an ace.
“What we lack is that starter who you pencil in at the top of the rotation that is an automatic W,” Ryan told MLB Network Radio in December.
Of the starters the Astros have courted via trade, they’ve been the most aggressive with the 27-year-old Quintana, who has both an outstanding track record and an ultra-affordable contract. Houston and Chicago have been in touch on a daily basis regarding Quintana, though the Astros haven’t been willing to sacrifice possible long-term rotation pieces to land the southpaw. That includes 24-year-old right-hander Joe Musgrove, who had an encouraging major league debut last season, and fellow righty Francis Martes. Unlike Musgrove, Martes hasn’t reached the big league level, but the 21-year-old was terrific with Double-A Corpus Christi in 2016 and now ranks as MLB.com’s 29th-best prospect.
“It would take something significant for us to move him,” general manager Jeff Luhnow said of Martes last month.
While Quintana does qualify as “significant,” it’s debatable whether a No. 1-type starter is more of a need than a luxury for the Astros. Their premier option, lefty Dallas Keuchel, took sizable steps backward last season as he dealt with shoulder troubles, yet he isn’t far removed from a two-year run of brilliance that culminated with the AL Cy Young Award in 2015. Shoulder issues also limited curveball-heavy righty Lance McCullers last season, but the 23-year-old has been highly effective when healthy since debuting in 2015. Across 206 2/3 innings, McCullers has logged a 3.22 ERA, 10.23 K/9, 3.83 BB/9 and 50.5 percent ground-ball rate.
The other members of the Astros’ projected starting five – Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers and Morton – have decidedly less upside than Keuchel and McCullers, but each are capable major league starters. And, in the event of injuries and/or ineffectiveness, the Astros possess depth with Musgrove, Martes, Brady Rodgers and David Paulino either ready for the majors or close to it. Further, led by Ken Giles, Chris Devenski, Will Harris, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz, Houston has a deep bullpen that can shorten games and take pressure off its rotation.
In the end, it would certainly be a boon for the Astros to add Quintana (or someone of his ilk) to what looks like a playoff-caliber roster. At least opening the season with their current contingent of rotation options would be far from catastrophic, though, and Luhnow could continue to monitor the trade market during the season if his starters don’t suffice. Of course, judging by his ongoing interest in Quintana, it seems Luhnow wants to bolster his rotation before the 2017 campaign commences. But does he really need to?
(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
They need an ace because keuchel sure isn’t
A Cy Young award winner isn’t an ace? Okay bud
Not if you can’t pitch at that level consistently. Even R.A Dickey won a Cy Young award, and nobody would call him an ace.
Who says he can’t be consistent? He was really good in 2014 too
probably people who saw him pitch in 2016. Also was not at all an ace in 2014.
Keuchel isn’t an ace in my opinion. I really enjoy watching the Astros play so I’d be happy if they traded for another good pitcher and put it together to win the WS.
Dude he can be good but he’s not an ace. Lol
He was also battling shoulder injuries in 2016, and was much better the second half than the first. Still not “great,” but I fully believe Keuchel is more than able to pull down a 3.40 ERA in the AL.
Yeah that Rick Porcello sure is an ace…
Nor was Porcello considered the Ace in Boston last year mr yankee fan.. Price was, tho Porcello did put together an Ace type season numbers wise, just like Dickie did for a cy young award, Bartolo Colon, Barry Zito,Pete Vuckovich, denny McClain (2x)..
It’s a matter of good pitcher’s putting it all together for a single season. Some continue onward and have decent careers, some of these types regress again.
Some fans cannot give credit where due.
There were multiple people that could have won. Saying that he’s not an ace because he won 1 cy young is an absolutely correct response to the OPs post that DK is an ace because of his previous CY award.
You don’t need an ace to be a serious contender in the AL. In 14 and 15 the royals didn’t have one. (Cueto was terrible in 15 with the royals)
Honestly, there’s not that many true aces in the league…the Bumgarner big gamers. Royals had James Shields…he was more a 2 on many teams though.
Royals had moved on from Shields by the time they won.
Shields was 14-8 for the Royals in 2014 when they were AL Champions. He was integral to them turning the corner. I guess if you term “they won” as a world series trophy, then yeah…they wisely let the Padres overpay. I’d say he was involved in half their winning.
Never said DK was an ace in 2014 but he did have a breakout year. He’ll bounce back
Not gonna happen if the white sox are asking for the world. They can wait….so can we…
Agree. The White Sox know their price. If it is not met, they just keep him. He is well within their budget.
yeah, good luck with that approach… sure helped you land Sale, didn’t it?
seriously, the longer the Astros sit on their hands the better the competition’s gonna get… that division is theirs for the taking if they just had 1 more frontline starter, but they tried to wait out the market last season too and watched somebody else win it instead.
it’s not like they don’t have the spare prospects to make it happen, they just needs the ‘intestinal fortitude’ to use them.
You sound like a White Sox fan who wants shiny new toys.
I am a White Sox fan and I think the Sox are crazy to trade Quintana. If their goal is to be competitive in 2 years, they will have to trade for a guy like Quintana and it will cost much more. So the only way the Sox give up Q is if Sox get the moon or a bunch of “shiny new toys”. And the chances of any of the “shiny new toys” being as good as Q is relatively low. So either we keep him or we get a bunch of shiny new toys.
You mean a Giolito or a Lopez type, that has at least 2 years of experience?
The Sox won’t be competitive in two years AND Q isn’t the stud that the Sox fan base thinks he is, and that’s why they are trying hard to trade him. To say that any of the prospects available have a very low chance of being as good as him is not only wrong, but absurd. Yes, most prospects don’t pan out, however many do. Many unheralded prospects become even better (think Roy Oswalt). He’s consistent, not great. In a previous article on this site someone insanely compared him to Greg Maddux. I decided it wasn’t worth the comment because anyone who would make such an insane comment clearly knows little to nothing about baseball.
Whoa there buddy. I’m not a white Sox fan at all and even I know Quintana is a high end 2 low end 1. For 4 years of that level pitching something like Martes, Tucker and Paulino is probably right around the going rate. I heard that the Astros weren’t totally against that price but the White Sox asked for Musgrove and I can understand why the Astros backed off. That being said a move like this puts the Astros in the 3 team hunt in the AL. I have the Red Sox and Indians as the top 2 right now but Astros would go right into that conversation with Quintana.
I’m a Sox fan too. It is unrealistic to expect them to be competitive in two years as it assumes that too many of the prospects actually live up to their hype. That is why Q will be traded. More high end prospects = greater chance you have several future all stars or really good players. And you will probably get at least 1 pitching prospect back for Q, to go along with Giolito, Koepch, Lopez, Fuller, Dunning, Hansen, etc. (and the Sox already have Rodon in the majors). If you are assuming they will be good in 2 years means you are assuming most of these pitching prospects hit, which means you don’t need Q! And hell, it may not be till going into 2021 that they are good enough to compete for the WS, in which case they could just sign Q as a FA if necessary.
There’s no sense keeping your sports if you don’t plan on driving it for 2-3 years.
You do realize you are talking about a guy who’s career numbers are almost identical to Collin McHugh’s numbers in an Astros uniform right?
How is that worth anywhere near what the Sox are asking for?
Over the last 3 years Quintana has 70 more IP, an ERA and FIP around 40 points better and about 5 more WAR than McHugh. Q is significantly better than McHugh.
Now the Astros pitcher he is very similar to is Kuechel. Their numbers are almost identical over the past 3 seasons and that is including DK’s Cy Young winning season.
You would also get Q for the next 4 seasons compared to having DK for only 2 seasons.
While I agree, but what the White Sox asked for wasn’t the world, it was the going rate for a top 10 pitcher in WAR for all of Baseball.
Nah, the Astros should have a fire sale and start over. Go, Rangers!
Rangers are going to be bad this year son just get ready lmao
rangers will win the division due to the lack of rotation the stros have
That Astros are going to have a decent enough rotation with improvements by Musgrove McCullers and Keuchel. Rangers got lucky last year and will probably regress as well
astros runs against/game last year: 4.3
rangers runs against/game last year: 4.7
rangers had an unsustainable run differential and lead the AL (BY FAR) in lucky wins per pythagorean wins.
Yeah even my Angels will be better than the Rangers next year.. enjoy 4th place you guys
I wouldn’t go ahead and say that as I think it will be a close race
Seattle have improved dramatically. The only loss is Taijuan Walker and Seth Smith.
My issue with that who run/loss differential is the fact if you lose one game say 15-3 because you’re strained on starters then it doesn’t make a difference because chances are the other 3 or so games will be closer.
Last year Rangers didn’t have Darvish til half way through season and used A LOT of AAA and long relief guys to patch the rotation which led to significant blow outs. I would imagine if the rotation was more stable their run differential would be DRASTICALLY different last year. Not to mention they had Wilhelmsen and Tolleson giving up 2-3 run bombs late in the game and their bull pen is arguably one of the best now.
Rangers did get lucky this past year. But lucky counts. No one has a crystal ball for next year, but there are several signs pointing to the Rangers window closing soon. The payroll is high. The farm system has been hit hard with all the trades the past few years. Darvish is a FA this year. Beltre isn’t getting younger. Lucroy is a FA.
Part of me wants the Rangers to start off slow so that they can flip Darvish at the deadline and restock their farm system. If not it’s basically next year or bust. Hope I’m wrong…
The idea is that it evens out over 162 games, which if you look at rd for the majority of teams and years, works out that way.
Being a Tigers fan, no team (other than the Angels) had more injuries last year than Texas. Chances are that won’t happen two years in a row. I see them as the Favorite in the division at this point, but I see Seattle and Houston both in Contention. Sorry Angels and A’s. No Soup for You.
Surely you’re speaking of only the AL. Because the Dodgers literally set a record for roster changes
Was about to say the same thing about the Dodgers setting a record. It’s insane how many injuries they had and still went to the NLCS. A healthy team would be huge for them.
Um the Rangers don’t have a 1b nor OF. Astros lineup will destroy there’s. Houston has a better BP too.
To say Rangers will be bad next year is pure ignorance. Baring injuries they should be relatively competitive. Not sure if they’ll win division BUT they can definitely maintain a position for WC I bet
They already did, and they will probably win the division
MadmanTX’s bias glasses strike again. Fire sale with that core and additions, lol
It definitely helps to have a front end starter. Keuchel wasn’t great last year and you can’t go into it thinking he’s gonna be the guy he was in 2015. But I also don’t see them shelling out that much talent for Quintana… even though he’s good and has years of control. Can’t wait to see this one unfold
Quintana is overrated, would not give up Tucker and Martes if I was luhnhow
He’s actually quite underrated.
His whip is pretty bad for his stats though
If he is underrated than so is Collin McHugh. Career numbers are almost identical.
Look at the 3 pitchers below and tell me again which ones are overrated, underrated and not that valuable. This is from 2014-2016, except for SP D which is for 2015-2016 which are his only full seasons as a SP.
SP A: IP-614, ERA-3.29, FIP-3.19, fWAR-14.6, Contract: 4/$38mm
SP B: IP-600, ERA-3,21, FIP-3.28, fWAR-12.2, Contract: 2/$21-24mm
SP C: IP-543, ERA-3.71, FIP-3.57, fWAR-9.9, Contract: 3/$22-25mm
SP D: IP-349, ERA-4.07, FIP-4.23, fWAR-4.3, Contract: 3/$18-20mm(2015-2016)
One of these pitchers is Quintana, one is Cy Young winner Keuchel one is McHugh and one is Fiers, who would probably be the rotation spot that Quintana would take.
Overrated because he’s overvalued, would not give up that package for him he’s a Good No 2 at best
The Astros really need Q they have a team that looks to be playoff bound. Q is not overrated and chances are anyone they trade for Q won’t be near as good as Q you don’t get many chances to compete for World Series but Q would probably make them a serious World Series threat and one of the favorites. Q is going to be expensive because he is worth it to certain teams as far as being overrated yes if you are talking one of the 5 best but he is top 20 baseball and it’s silly and makes people look stupid when they argue against that.
This idea that one player, not named Mike Trout, makes a team a much better ws contender is just false. The playoffs are a small sample with lots of noise and are lots of luck.
On most teams I agree with you but Houston is a very good team that if they add a top of the rotation starter like Q will have to be, along with Boston the favorite in Al.
Being the favorite isn’t a big deal then. The giants had bum/cueto/shark and didn’t get past the ds. Didn’t boston lose to cleveland with porcello and price? As much as having good pitchers helps, it just doesn’t make you a favorite. The playoffs are too random.
You need to make the playoffs first. Astros aren’t a lock to get there with their rotation as it stands.
No team is a lock to make the playoffs in January
Obviously but my point is you have to make the playoffs to get to the randomness of them. With Quintana they have a much better chance of going with that young core they have, instead of missing them like last year.
Sure, Boston has a good team. But I don’t see them doing better than last year after losing Ortiz. If Houston does trade for a stud SP like Q, I’d put them as pennant favorites with the Indians who signed EE plus potentially getting Brantley back.
except their chance isn’t *much* better. That’s the point.
@ bruin: You began your run onnnnnnnnnnnn sentence with a capitol and finished with a period, congratulations. Unfortunately, I have no idea what you are trying to convey.
Ive thought about this..and I think Quintana in Pittsburgh gets them 5 extra wins….and they’d have a nice rotation for a short series. I really really like a Pittsburgh and Quintana match.
I’m glad you thought about it, but how do you figure Q is a 5 win improvement? He’s a 4ish win player likely replacing an at least 1 win starter
There are about 5-7 players in the league that immediately makes a team a much more likely WS contender, other than just Mike Trout. The other two guys who were better than him this year (Altuve and Betts) take up 2 of those spots. Yes, I know he won the MVP, but it rarely seems to go to the right person anyways. Most the awards are that way.
Neither of those players were better than mike trout.
When were the Giants the favorites last year? At the all star break maybe, but they barely made and then limped into the playoffs…and lost to the Cubs because of their bullpen, not the dodgers.
not to mention that the Red Sox were favorites because of their prolific offense.
Being a “favorite” is just someone’s opinion with no real world effects.
And the idea that one player not named trout can’t make a team a more likely title contender is completely cromulent 😉 and happens all the time…otherwise what are we constantly talking about on this site? Every trade/signing is made in an effort to make a team a more legitimate series contender
I’m simply saying that the White Sox, according to advanced statistics, were one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. There catchers were the worst pitch framers in baseball. When you add the two of those together it is likely that Sale and Quintana, who succeeded even though the White Sox were so poor defensively and especially pitch framing are actually better then they appear on paper now. The same can be said about the Cubs pitchers in reverse they were helped by excellent defense and very good catching. Hopefully that clarifies my point to you grammar police.
They both were. Altuve’s performance was even more impressive considering he’s the size of a third grader.
Pitch framing is becoming greatly over exaggerated. Fringe pitches and how they’re called is more about the umpire behind the plate than about the catcher behind the plate. Until the statistics go all out and use the umpires in that metric, then it should be null and void.
How were they better? I’d love to hear what stats you use to make this case other than one being short.
The Cubs were the favorite not the Giants. They did win the World Series. Also Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks was a better rotation than Bum, Cueto, Shark.
I think he’s a real world 5 game improvement….and a serious Cy Young candidate on that Pirate roster. I believe he might win 18-20 games…and whoever he replaces on the roster might be 13-15…Glasnow potentially. I think that increase in effectiveness over 5 games pushes them into 92-93 win territory possibly more. It all depends on what else they do to the roster…..but I feel Quintana perfectly fits what the Pirates roll out in 2017.
Chesteraarthur—I’ll take Altuve though if Im building a team….based on position scarcity.
Closer to 5 war then 4.
Quintana on the Pittsburgh roster is one player that I do see impacting beyond WAR. Pirates look like a bounceback team as is….add Quintana throwing to that defense and that pitch framing….he’s in high leverage position to help net them many more real wins. They won 78 in 2016…lets say they bounce back…Taillon comes along…OF rebounds….they are 86? Where does Quintana take them? Probably not over the Cubs…but they lock that wild card game. Quintana plays right into the Pirate strengths….even their budget. They need to get this done.
I’ll give you a prime example of a team making a deal that turned their corner. The Cubs dealing for Rick Sutcliffe in April 1984. I think he lost 2 games all season.
overrated in what sense? 4 WAR guy with cheap years of control left in his late 20s is hard to overrate
Quintana, imo, pitches like a high 2; but he’s so consistent at it year after year, which makes him perhaps a 1.
Whether a 1 or high 2, Tucker and Martes isn’t that high a package for him. I suspect Hahn has been offered that and has rejected it.
That’s the package Hahn asked for (allegedly), and Luhnow said no.
Over rated? He’s durable and very very very affordable, which kills the over rated label to the budget minded decision makers. An addition to a solid club like astros could be the most underrated move for the 2017 GM of the year when they win World Series with him. Just sayn
Do we need a front line starter? No it is definitely a luxury. This team definitely can go deep in the playoffs with the team they have now. Standing pat and address any potential holes at the deadline would be just fine with me
houston was tied for 3rd lowest runs allowed per game in the AL last year. just because you dont know the names doesnt mean they arent good.
People think having an amazing rotation with sexy names will win you a WS. The Cubs or Royals didn’t win the WS with pitching but with other assets. The Cubs did have a “good” rotation but they pitched well because of the defense and the offense giving them huge leads
The Cubs rotation led the MLB in ERA with a sub-3 ERA and the next best team by 0.64 runs. That doesn’t indicate they succeeded because the offense gave them huge leads (although yes, the defense definitely helped them)
Their pitchers are obviously very talented, but they all benefitted in a pretty significant way from one of the best defensive units in recent memory. Their BABIP’s were insane.
Hence why i cited fip, which still puts them at 5 for a unit or 4 for just rotation.
cubs were 5th in fip overall and 4th for starters. I’d say that is better than “good”
What are you talking about the Cubs had the best Rotation top to bottom and once they got Chapman a great bullpen.
Royals also won by having decent starters and a complete lights out pen.
It’s not a popular stance, but the true factor that puts a lot of teams “over the top” isn’t any single individual’s talent. More often than not, it’s “The Cohesiveness” of a team’s 25-man roster that elevates teams to Championships. I’m not saying that “you can’t buy a trophy”, because you can (the Yankees have in the past). And you must “have talent on the field”.
Just my 2-cents worth here, but I think the most ignored aspect of baseball (at least by fans) is “Team Unity”. That is the element that tipped the scales for the Marlins (at least in 1 of their 2 WS Championships), and I think it certainly was a factor for the Cubs last year (and possibly for many years to come). When guys believe in each other, and are having a lot of fun together, it goes a long way towards winning.
Q will add talent to any roster that he joins. But it may not matter if he is a #1 or a #3 on that team, as long as the attitude that comes with him, is one of unity.
Winning, though, has a way of creating team unity……70s A’s being an exception.
Often what puts a team over the top is being able to minimize injuries at key positions. The Cubs were incredibly fortunate with their SP. Their SP started: 29, 30, 31, 31, 32….that’s nuts.
Thats huge…the injury impact…and what makes the Indians run so amazing..they were banged up on that staff. Full starting staff and the Cubs might still be waiting for “next year”
It is most definitely a need. The staff is rough. McCullers has had injury concerns and Keuchel wasn’t good last year. A front end starter would be huge. I don’t know if Quintana is that guy and what a fair price would be, but he is very close. Not sure if the new park or division would affect him, but he’s been remarkably consistent in his career.
Do they need to? No. Do we want to see it? Yes.
If McHugh, Keuchal, and McCullers can all get their youknowwhat together in the same year, and all stay healthy and productive, thats as good as 1-2-3 in the league (except probably Boston/Cleveland). Do they need to add an ace? No.. but they’re playing with fire if they dont.
Especially considering the Rangers WILL make improvements as needed.
Of course they need one! Unless they want to be this year’s Orioles…if they’re fine losing in the WC/ALDS then ok, but if they are going to compete with the Red Sox and Indians they need to make the investment.
That being said it might be equally wise to give the youngins a chance and then get Quintana or someone else at the deadline if need be…
I’d jump the gun around memorial day….beat the deadline auction…Quintana isnt a rental and his salary is excellent.
I don’t get it. The Astros spent like 4 years rebuilding and hoarding all these prospects and now they are trying to trade them away before they can establish themselves? Why not just use Musgrove and Martes for their rotation? I like most of the moves the Astros have made in the last 2 years except trading away Velasquez but if they trade away all their prospects then their entire rebuilding effort will be in vain.
They probably won’t make that trade and will slot in Martes and Musgrove
kind of really want to see what devenski could do as a starter. hope he doesn’t get pigeonholed as a reliever just because that’s how they first used him and he’s good at pitching so he was good at relieving
They can win the division with their current rotation, but they can’t win the World Series.
I think they need to wait till mid-season. Let the prospects develop a bit more so it won’t cost as many players and you’ll also know what all you need. I know it’s a gamble, but the White Sox are asking for too much and Quintana isn’t the answer.
I wish we could’ve snagged Archer, but that appears to be off the table.
I just hope they don’t get rid of Tucker. He’s gonna be special.
Quintana is better than archer. Higher WAR, better ERA both last year and career, almost identical whip career wise better than archer’s whip last year AND Quintana is younger. Archer strikes out more batters, that’s really it.
Strike outs are a significant outcome to achieve. If you value FIP, xFIP, HR/FB%, fastball velocity, it becomes pretty easy to see the allure of Archer. He and Quintana are both projected to be ~4 win pitchers, they just come about it different ways. I’d personally prefer the ceiling of Archer vs. the floor of Quintana but to each their own.
If Jose Quintana is the best guy truly available, which I think he is, I don’t think it’s a smart move for the Astros to trade for him.
Per Steamer
Joe Musgrove: 7.69 k/9, 2.11 BB/9, 43.9% GB%, 20.4 K%, 5.6% BB%, 14.8 K-BB%, 4.03 FIP, 4.07 xFIP
Jose Quintana: 7.97 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 44.2% GB%, 21.2 K%, 6.3% BB%, 14.9 K-BB%, 3.79 FIP, 4.01 xFIP
Obviously Quintana projects a bit better than Musgrove does, though they’re projected at identical K-BB% and GB%. The only area Quintana really has an edge in is HR/FB suppression, which I’m not sure I buy as a skill, given his unexceptional velocity and high hard contact % last year.
The Astros currently look to have a very long contention window with a great core and a good farm. I think they’re wise to not shorten that window by not making unnecessary trades (although i suppose they just did that with mccann). I agree a TOR starter would help, but I don’t see Quintana as much of an improvement over Musgrove, and that’s not even accounting for the value of Tucker or Martes. Unless Archer is available and available for much cheaper than previously rumored, I think it’s best for them to stand pat. Quintana fits better on a rotation lacking in depth but one that already has front end talent. Houston has depth, and while they may currently lack front end talent, the guy Quintana would be displacing isn’t much worse than Quintana is.
You’re comparing a guy who has amassed 14.7fWAR over the last 3 years to a guy who’s thrown in 11 ML games by using 41 innings worth of Steamer projections!?
Nope.
Steamer projections aren’t less significant if the sample size a player is projected for is small. The sample size is small because Musgrove is buried on the depth chart. His rate based stats would be projected for the same rates if he was projected for 1 inning or 250 innings. Also, Musgrove’s projections aren’t based on only 11 starts, they also include his minor league performance. For what it’s worth, the scouting reports suggest a similar upside for Musgrove. He’s a durable starter with unexceptional stuff, but great command, and groundball tendencies. Sound familiar? Given that Musgrove is currently major-league ready, Martes could also quickly help (at least in relief), and Tucker is pretty highly regarded, that’s a pretty steep price for someone you’ve already got.
Quintana has obviously been very good the past three years, but that doesn’t make him a good or logical trade target for the Astros. His xFIP has risen from 3.37 to 4.03. His FIP- has also gotten worse by about 10% in that time period, so it’s not just a result of the league-wide uptick in offense. Maybe he’s not declining, but he’s showing signs of it. The Astros are too smart of a team to make a risky trade like that. Maybe Musgrove busts (seems doubtful from my perspective, guys with solid stuff and plus-plus command are pretty safe), but it also seems likely that the Quintana you’d be acquiring could be significantly worse than the Quintana you’re paying for, and not actually that much of an upgrade.
Q put up those #’s throwing to the worst framer in Baseball. It wasn’t close. (not accounted for in FIP or xFIP)
He had a bottom 5 defense behind him. He’s had bottom 2 run support.
Every outing he knew that a single mistake WOULD cost him the game.
His fastball velocity has also increased each of the last 4 years.
If you think Musgrove and Martes give you the same or better shot at a WS, then the best of luck to you and your team.
I would say you are over doing it on the kool-aid.
I doubt he thinks Quintana and Musgrove give the Astros an equal chance at a World Series. What he’s trying to say is that the improvement from Musgrove to Quintana might not be significant enough to warrant the type of exchange in capital required (Martes Tucker Musgrove). If the improvement is marginal (~1-2 wins), it might not be prudent of the Astros to trade so much future value and pre-are production for Quintana.
I wasn’t aware Quintana’s FB velocity has increased, that’s good to know. Thank you.
White Sox should just keep Q for now. The AL West should be a 3 team race come July 31 see which of the 3 will overpay to secure postseason.
what overpay can the mariners/rangers give? That’s the problem with an asset like Q, few teams can actually afford to add him without subsequently subtracting from their ML roster.
Tyler O’Neill would get the conversation started I’d say. Some combination of Gohara/Vogelbach/Povse along with O’Neill is probably pretty solid. There’s Kyle Lewis too but he’s one of my personal favourites, ACL’s be damned.
That isn’t on the same level as the astros offer and is certainly not an overpay.
Absolutely agree with you, C/A. Any trade offer can be made stronger when both ML and MiL players are included. Most teams cannot afford to move ML players during the season. Right now, both paper contenders and paper rebuilders can put in offers for Q, which makes for stronger offers. At the trade deadline, that is reduced to only the contenders, and they are not likely to move young players that are already contributing. It’s more beneficial for the Sox to move Q in the offseason.
You can’t judge whether a pitching staff can succeed in the playoffs in January nor can you judge them based on last year’s results. You can ball park them based on projections if you believe in them. I would wait and see where they’re at in June or July then go out and get what they need to put them over the top.
Keuchel is one year removed from a CY Young and 2 years from a very impressive ’14. McHugh is a year removed from a 19 win season. McCullers needs to stay healthy, and if that happens has the ability to win 20 plus games. Not to mention all 5 pitchers should benefit from the additions made to the offense. Would starting the season with an additional top rotation guy be fantastic? Of course it would but giving up the potential of multiple top rotation arms plus additional pieces to do so seems premature.
James Shields is 2 years removed from a solid 2014 you want him
Better off resigning Doug Fister.
The problem with Quintana is that while he’s a very valuable asset and a nice player to have…is he really going to change a team’s fate that much?
If the Astros or Pirates (the two most rumored suitors) got to a wild card game, would they use Quintana?
The Astros would probably use Keuchel and the Pirates would probably use Cole (though I could make an argument for Taillon).
To give up a handful of your best prospects, it has to be for a guy who would be at the top of your rotation.
Umm probably not W was on the one of the worst defensive teams in baseball and was in the worst team for catching pitch framing. Q is just better stop being silly and trying to reduce his importance on a playoff team.
So, you’d start him over Keuchel in a one game playoff? Over Cole?
You’d like his odds against Kershaw? Bumgardner? Syndergaard? Scherzer?
You’d give up your entire farm for those odds?
if you’ve got him you can start him in game one of the divisional series after that one game playoff.
it takes more than 1 really good pitcher to go the distance, and that’s what the Astros should be considering these days.
Those types are not available now that Sale is gone so some say everyone’s playing for second with Red Sox staff? Keeping up with them may require to add a quality SP and Jose Q fits that mold and IS available ! Astros still interested since they are still sniffing around Wsox gate or else they would have stated that they would move forward without acquiring Q? I give credit to both sides holding firm and as a Wsox fan I hope JQ gets a chance at a WS ring somewhere else since he may not do that in chgo
When a team makes the Wild Card game, they probably needed every win to get there. They’re going to go with the most ready/rested starter, whether its their number 1 or number 4, and everyone else is in the bullpen.
Rangers!
as an astros fan, i call this the brady aiken situation… we were supposed to draft rodon, it was a real big thing on our fanpages to say: “tank for rodon” after every loss (even the year prior to his elegibility)— then we went and got aiken and we all know how that worked out… Would we be in this situation if we had gotten him? probably not, but hindsight is 20/20 and the people who made the decission are smarter and more knowledgeable than I am, and also have made some genius moves, so i’m just throwing it out there for the heck of it…
I prefer the Mark Appel situation. Pirates take him at #8 but he wants to go to Houston so he goes back into the draft and the Bucs got Austin Meadows at #9 the next year with the comp pick.
Didn’t they end up with Bregman the next year for not signing aiken? I’d say that’s a pretty good trade off
I think most teams could use a front line starter, however the Stros have some possible bounce back candidates in the rotation, and some potential young talent in the farm, I would not make a deal, but I’m a fan of the game not a GM.
at some point you gotta go for it and use the farm to do so, like the red sox did. I think that time is now for them
The Astros are good because of their farm. Why not keep using it for their benefit by playing their young talent.
Once the players start to arrive, its a max of 6 years window, as most will go FA. it will probably be 2-3 years after the first arrives before the team starts to gel. If teams wait too long, the window closes without the desired results. Castro, the first to arrive, is already gone. The clock is ticking. At some point, there’s no time for developing players.
In my opinion, unless the astros get another starter, they are the third best team in the division at best. Possibly the best everyday 9 in the division, but I don’t trust their rotation, and to a lesser extent, the pen.
Quintana has been overvalued. He’s not an ace. He’s as good a pitcher as Julio Teheran who none called an ace when his name was floated this past July. Hate to say it. The idea that Quintana can lead your staff isn’t one based in fact. I’m not saying he’s not a very good pitcher because he’s proven that he is. He’s someone you have confidence in being one of your top 3 starters on a World Series contender. If you have an ace and then two Quintana’s your top 3 is extremely good. He has the feel of the Shark a few years ago. Everyone thought he was the next big thing and Oakland gives up a consensus top 10 MLB prospect in Russell only for Shark to be who he really is- a good MLB pitcher who you’d want to have on your staff, but not someone you trade a blockbuster type package for.
Shark was much more expensive salary wise, a soon to be free agent so does JQ being controllable in more years under contract and more affordable salary more valuable? So throwing it out for discussion
He’s actually been better than teheran pretty much every year.
lol Julio Terhan pitches in the Worst Division in baseball and A pitcher friendly park
“The idea that Quintana can lead your staff isn’t one based in fact.” I don’t get this. He has happened to be on a team that had Chris Sale on it, so through no fault of his own (other than not being better than Chris Sale) he has not had the opportunity to lead a staff.
Personally I think relying on cold, unbiased metrics paints a better picture of a players value as opposed to some nebulous statement about leading a staff. A guy who will only be 28 next season, with 4 years on a team friendly contract, who has finished in the top 10 in the AL in ERA, WAR, WHIP, FIP in 2016 (and in several of those in 2014 and 15) is extremely valuable. Whether or not that makes him an Ace or a #1 or #2 or the staff leader or whatever is not important. Again, given his age, proven track record, and contract he has tons of value and as such will cost a lot for a team to acquire.
This is just making a comp to Chicago players..its like someone who comps him to Javier Vazquez….basically cause they are both latino….funny how comps tend to stay in racial terms.
The best comp I’ve heard to Quintana is Andy Pettitte.
The Yanks should really consider seeing if Tanaka is willing to waive no trade and make him available. Tanaka would be that ace teams are looking for and he can opt out after this year. His return could be slightly lower then Chicago asking price for Quintana even though he is a legitimate ace as Quintana is borderline ace himself with four years left. Both are same age. Since Tanaka can opt out and has slight tear in elbow which appears to be not effecting him and not getting worse the Yanks may not demand as huge return of prospects.
I think making the deal is much riskier than waiting. After the Carlos Gomez deal, I happy to bet on prospects.
Q is a great pitcher, but he’s a luxury.
Kuechal is not an ace. He was never even a top prospect. He throws low velocity and last year he came down to earth. Don’t get me wrong as a #3 I would def take a chance in him. But the days of him being a cy young contender are over. His stuff is not that good. Now Quintana is not an ace but he’s very good and I would prob want him over some aces like archer or price. Quintana is more of a sure thing. Give up 2-3 runs keep you in every game. Price,archer etc tend to have numerous games where they implode and give up 5-6 runs. So I like the safer option
Quintana is also a low velocity pitcher and he’s due for a regression to the mean as well. Keuchel was hurt all year last year, but played through it. Take out his first two months and he was the same outstanding Keuchel of the last 2-3 years.
Regression to his mean does not mean to just expect a player would get worse. It just means you could expect a player his performance in 2017 to better match his career stats (the mean) as opposed to recent performanxe, which could be an outlier. One should also factor in how a player would age. In Q’s case his mean is still a top 10 AL starter and he is still young.
The real issue is do the Astros expect to compete “now” (2017 and 18). If so, Q helps you win now. If they aren’t expecting to compete now but in the future, then hang onto the prospects. It’s all about maximizing your chance when you are in the competitive window. I assume the signing of Beltran indicates they are competing now.
What do you consider a low velocity pitcher? Q’s average velocity was 92 last year 1 mph less then Sale who was 93. Q is not a soft tosser one of the biggest misconceptions out there. Dallas Keuchel is a much softer and finesse pitcher then Q. Let’s stop calling Q a soft tosser because that is just not true.
The Astros do not have the best history of winning trades when it comes to giving up young talent for starting pitching. Johnson for Garcia/guillen/halama is a good example of an Astros typical trade result. Although Johnson was a juggxrnaught on the mound for the stros, Garcia went on to be a very solid pitcher himself and guillen became a front line shortstop for several years, halama also had a serviceable career as a back end of the rotation major leaguer. All of the successful years of these men’s careers were not worth the 12 or so starts made by Johnson because the Astros failed to go to the World Series and Johnson left via free agency leaving the Astros with two compensatory picks that they missed on as well. I do like QUINTANA, but I think the Astros already have two or three top prospects that could perform at his level or better given the chance. STAND FAST WITH WHAT YOU HAVE AND GET MUSGROVE/martez/or paulino on the bump quickly.
Say a deal such as Martes, Tucker, Pualino + another decent position player prospect could land Q. That improves Astros for next several years (Q under contract at team friendly rate for 4 seasons) and Astros would still have Musgrove and other top prospects (Whitley, Fisher, etc.) Trading for Q does not equal a complete sacrifice of the future.
No way that they give up their best hitting and pitching prospects in a deal for anyone, especially a finesse pitcher who, while consistent, isn’t world-beating. No team would for him, which is why he’s still in Chicago and not somewhere else.
At the risk of going down this rabbit hole again, but if you compare Q’s ERA, WAR, WHIP, FIP in 2016 and over last 3-4 seasons he is one of the top 10 starters in the AL. He is worth top propsects. The only reason the deal isn’t done is because while those two may be the Astros top propsects they are inferior to other organizations propsects (IE Sox would rather get Glasnow and Meadows from Pirates).
Agreed.
I’ve run these by a half dozen writers not associated with the Sox, Pirates or ‘Stros (including the chats on this site)-
Q for Meadows, Keller, Diaz, Hearn
Q for Tucker, Martes, Franklin Perez and Ramon Laureano
One called the Astros’ return too light The rest say both offers were fair.
I understand fans liking their prospects, But valuing every Minor Leaguer as if they”ll hit their ceiling isn’t how it works.
I think this poll is flawed. There should be three options:
-trade for an ace now
-trade mid season
-stand pat
I prefer wait and see
I like Quintana. He’d be an excellent addition to Pittsburgh. But if the ChiSox are looking for Meadows as the player the proposed deal hinges upon, it’s pure insanity
The past few months have acted to toss cold water on the idea that the Pirates still have one of the best farm systems. But the fact that Meadows is a stud destined to start in Pittsburgh is not in dispute. That the Sox not only would want him but two or three other top prospects is pure insanity
I’m good with Cole, Nova, Taillon, Kuhl and perhaps Glasnow if need be. Kingham, Brault and others are in the wings, too
I think Cutch will have a huge bounce back year and would hope for an infield that starts with Freese and Kang at the corners
No, they’re not gonna win the Central, but if healthy can compete
For the price Chicago is apparently asking, it’s wise to remember that sometimes the best move you make is no move at all
Not a Pirates fan, but I completely agree. Same reason why the Astros shouldn’t give up Martes or Tucker, much less both. The ceilings of all of those prospects are far greater than Quintana who has already reached his. He’s incredibly consistent, but he will never be anything more than he is.
I as an Astros fan think Quintana is more than what we have. As far as prospects I would love to keep and watch them reach their potential but our window opened now. Quintana gives a TOR pitcher! A need for Houston NOW… #1 or #2? He would be a large plus for our rotation. If you think that’s BS you need to regroup.
Yea a 5 Win pitcher every year playing with 1 of the Worst Teams and In a bandbox
If Pirates give up Glasnow and Meadows for Q that GM should be fired after this 2018 season with no championship and either the Cubs, Nats, or San Fran representing the NL.
Q is a very good number two with moderate to Avg stuff and great control. I cannot see sacrificing that much in prospects so close for him.
He’s failed a steroid test and yes he had four straight solid to very good years maxing out on innings. Way too risky for a starter unless your one lefty starter away from winning it all.
My feeling is the white Sox are not getting close to what they are asking yet and they should deal him at the trade deadline.
My feeling is also the white Sox are over reaching here and want to deal him asap rather then risk injury and no return.
They seem to be pushing hard to get best return.
Red flags.
I’ll just say I would be upset with any GM not pushing hard to get the best return.
lol so when should the Pirates go for it because the Cubs don’t look like there slowing down anytime soon ……. And the Cards are not the Cards right now …….. Do they wait to 2032 to push all in
The steroid test….happened way back in like 2006 in the minors….time to move on. He’s Andy Pettitte…what would prime Pettitte be worth?
2016 metrics:
Quintana 208 IP
Archer 201.1 IP
Best Astros starter 184.2 IP (McHugh)
Quintana 3.2 ERA
Archer 4.02 ERA
Best Astros starter 4.34 ERA (McHugh)
Quintana 3.56 FIP
Archer 3.81 FIP
Best Astros starter 3.87 FIP (Keuchel)
Quintana 4.8 WAR
Archer 3.1 WAR
Best Astros starter 3.0 WAR (McHugh)
Francis Martes 2016: 125.12 AA innings
Martes could be a great pitcher. But he is a prospect. He could end up being just OK or be a huge bust. I included Archer because if the rumors are true the Astros were willing to give up Martes and Tucker and more for him. Q is work Martes, Tucker plus more. Martes may be the better option if Astros are looking at contending in a few seasons. In which case why did they give Beltran $16m for 2017?
I also should have added that it’s not like you are trading these prospects for a 1 year rental. Q has 4 more seasons on his contract.
The Astro’s pitching is good and has the possibility of greatness without an additional starting pitcher. They really have the possibility of going deep into a pennant race as is. With the moves the Astros made this year I wouldn’t be a gambler with the rotation as is. Go ahead and pick up a TOR pitcher.. All these guys saying if it’s not a #1 it’s not worth it I say B.S. Quintana puts them deep in with Boston or Cleveland… Without an additional TOR , Houston’s starters will need to be pretty flawless and the reliever corp will need to stay spot on… Just my $.02 .
It’s already been reported that the astros offered Martes, Tucker and Paulino…and sox turned it down.
And since it’s been reported that they offered that and two more players for Archer, it’s probably pretty accurate..
Yeah, I don’t really get the concern some have that the Astros shouldn’t trade Martes and Tucker. It is obvious that the Astros need better SP, which means a trade for Q or Archer, or they stand pat and take that risk. But Q or Archer = a package with Martes and Tucker as the headliners. The reason a deal probably has not been done is the Astros probably would rather get Archer back if they trade those 2 while the Sox would prefer to make a deal, if they can, with the Pirates for Glasnow and Meadows for Q. As such, everyone is still talking and no one has pulled the trigger.
And it was reported that the rays wanted Bregman to start the conversation for Archer, so I don’t think he is going anywhere. Which only leaves Q.
And I agree Glasnow and Meadows is preferable to Martes and Tucker.
Oh course Glasnow and Meadows is preferred, but the Pirates were quick to shut that down; that would be a bad overpay. It’s not A Shelby Miller overpay, but it would be too much.
No the Sox wanted Martes, Tucker, Musgrove and the Astros turned them down. Not the Sox turning down at all. Astros balked at the price. The Astros did offer that for Archer supposedly. I guess Luhnow thinks Archer hasn’t reached his potential yet.
The sox did want Martes, Tucker and Musgrave which the astros turned down.. Than the astros countered with Paulino instead of Mustgrave, which the sox turned down.
At least that’s what was reported on Sports Mockery.
The rumor I read (see link below) was Astros willing to offer Martes, Tucker, and Paulino for Q and Sox turned it down. Sox want Musgrove instead of Paulino (can’t say I blame them). Point is all sides agree Martes and Tucker are part of any deal.
As a Sox fan I want more position players, so if they can make a deal based off of Martes, Tucker, Paulino plus a good position prospect that could work.
Source: sportsmockery.com/2017/01/houston-astros-offer-whi…
If Musgrove v. Paulino is the sticking point, you would think they could find common ground with Martes, Tucker then Franklin Perez OR Whitley + a 4th piece like Laureano, Stubbs OR even M. Sierra.
If the Yankees aren’t offering Frazier and the Pirates won’t give up Meadows, something close to this will happen before ST.
From what I have read Whitley is one they prefer not to move either. High potential prospect that they want to hold onto at least until he has time in. Ton of raw talent.
Quintana had a measly 13 wins and 12 losses in 2016. The Astros need a true ace like Scherzer who had 20 wins and should try and make a move for him
Did you just say wins and losses you do realize that is one of the worst ways to look at pitcher effectiveness.
He is trolling, don’t fall for it!
I completely agree! Tim Lincecum would be great too….he pitched the Giants to the world series last season.
Suspect New York all along. Big dog not on the porch.
Since 2013, Quintana is 7nth in war behind Lester and in front of Bumgarner. Ace is a subjective term. By evidence, he is a strong #1 starter.
There is also the difference between a guy who will give you a shot to win every 5th game in the regular season and a guy you want pitching in a 1 game/game 7 scenario. Q is greatvfor the first option and less do for the latter, that’s why stats matter but still don’t tell the whole story.
Keuchel was hurt all last year, so it’s a reasonable bet that he can come closer to his Cy year’s performance if he stays healthy.
So while Quintana would be nice, he’s not a necessity, and if you look what the Astros did this year, they’re not a desperate club going all in for this season, they’re building towards something. They could have fit Encarnacion’s salary since McCann and Reddick are signed to reasonable deal and Beltran has a one year deal.
If the price comes down or the Astros can move discussion away from Martes to other prospects, a deal can be done. But it won’t break their season if it doesn’t happen.
See other comments in the thread, but based on what has been reported Martes (and Tucker for that matter) do not appear to be the sticking point between a potential deal. You may want them to keep Martes, but it has been reported the Sox wanted Martes, Tucker and Musgrove and the Astros countered (and therefore willing to part with) Martes, Tucker, and Paulino. MUSGROVE is the sticking point not Martes. If Q in on the Astros in 2017 then Martes will be pitching in the White Sox organization. The Astros were also willing to give up Martes and Tucker for Archer. Remember Q (and Archer) both have multiple years left under contract so its not like getting Q is just going to help in 2017, but all the way to (and including) 2020.
In all the Quintana talk on mlbtr…the most accurate comp I’ve seen is to Andy Pettitte.
Except Q throws quite a bit harder then Pettitte ever did.
Yes, but the Pettitte comp is a healthy way to perhaps project what Quintana would look like on a decent team. Put Quintana on any competitive roster the past few seasons and there’s no doubt what his perceived value would be. He’s 26…there’s no reason to think that he’s not one of the best deals thats been on the market in awhile. He had almost everything in Chicago working against him and he’s STILL been valuable and consistent.
Honestly Red I think Q would be an absolute monster in the NL with the Pirates he throws much harder than people think and on a good team he could really be finally seen as what he is a top 20 pitcher in baseball.
There just seems to be a lot of people out there under the misconception he is some soft tosser finesse pitcher and that is just not the case.
I reasonably see the Pirates as a bounceback team from 78 wins…lets say Taillon comes along…they are what…maybe 86?….then add Quintana with that defense and framing…I dont think a low 90s win total is totally absurd. Still puts them in the wid card though cause the Cubs are stil so strong. But a Cole-Quintana-Taillon short series rotation could be interesting.
Only thing is the prospect package….Id prefer an extremely strong 1-1. 1 and a flyer…..add Frazier maybe. Im not speculating on all that.