We’ve heard plenty over recent weeks about the Twins’ negotiations with rival clubs over star second baseman Brian Dozier. Minnesota reportedly asked interested suitors for their final offers in late December, but nothing more has emerged since (at least, not yet).
The Dodgers have been tied most heavily, and probably represent the cleanest fit. But the two organizations are said to be haggling over a complementary piece to accompany intriguing righty Jose De Leon, who’d seem to represent a worthwhile centerpiece. We’ve heard suggestions that the division-rival Giants could also be involved, though it has never been apparent whether San Francisco is fully engaged on Dozier. Likewise, the Cardinals and Nationals have been mentioned as possibilities, but it’s questionable at best whether either could represent a serious pursuer. There are a few other organizations that seem like hypothetical matches on paper, but we have yet to hear any suggestion of broader interest.
That’s hardly an optimal situation for the Twins, who would obviously prefer to see some bidding on a player who has compiled about 14 fWAR over the last three seasons and is owed just $15MM for his age-30 and 31 seasons. While it’s fair to wonder whether Dozier can maintain anything like the power surge he showed last year (.278 ISO, 42 home runs), he’s not dependent upon gaudy dinger tallies for all of his value. Dozier also rates as an outstanding overall baserunner and solid-enough up-the-middle defender, and has never slipped below league-average offensive production since establishing himself in the majors, so there’s a solid floor to go with his newly established ceiling.
All said, it would be hard for Minnesota to part with that package for anything less than what it deems to be fair value. If that can’t be found now, then perhaps the organization will just have to take Dozier into the season and take on the risks of waiting for a trade-deadline deal. That approach has paid off in some cases (Cole Hamels, Jonathan Lucroy) while backfiring in others (Tyson Ross). Ultimately, if the Giants aren’t willing to push the envelope, and no additional teams step into the fray, then this may simply turn into a staring contest between Derek Falvey and Andrew Friedman.
So, MLBTR readers, what do you think is most likely? Will the Twins strike a deal at some point in the coming weeks, or will Dozier still be at second base in Minnesota for the coming season (or, at least, part of it)? (Link for app users.)
The only deal I’ve heard reported anywhere was by the Strib’s Neal who said the Dodgers were offering De Leon for Dozier in a one for one deal. I can’t imagine the teams are even close at this point, so I think there’s no way a deal gets done.
the construct of a deal can change rapidly. I have no doubt that Dodgers will add another player, or 2, in addition to De Leon, but it will not be top 10 names.
Well, then it won’t get done. De Leon is a nice prospect but he already has shoulder soreness and durability concerns. The Twins aren’t giving up Dozier for De Leon and AAAA stuff. Nor should they.
have you checked Dodgers prospects ranked 11 through 30? If Twins are not happy with one or two of those in addition to De Leon then it will keep Dozier until he becomes a FA
Not about public prospect rankings… We dont know how Twins view those prospects.. Twins shouldnt trade Dozier unless they are comfortable with what they are getting back.
Ahahaha you are ridiculous. Dozier is a star at the moment. Deleon is a reliever because he prob won’t throw anymore than 125 innings and Dozier is a beast for 2 years. Go lose another season Los Angleles!!!! Don’t trade your farm system because 75% of them will probably fail anyway. I hope Los Angeles gets burned from this and their second baseman hits .150 next year. They deserve it for not making a move to make a difference.
The poor city of Los Angleles will never recover!
Hate much? Wow wasn’t it just at the trade deadline they sent a MLB ready pitcher and two 100 guys? They are locked in a staring contest I don’t really see the problem.
The Pirates ownership gets so upset with fans when they say they aren’t trying to win. I suggest they trade for Brian Dozier and prove to us all that they are in it to win it.
A small market team in the same division as the Cubs not trading away an aging McCutch, while trading away presumable farm studs, some of which that will be their future? Hard to believe they couldn’t find a decent deal for McCutch unloading some money, slotting in Austin Meadows, while possibly using some of the prospects from McCutch to package for Dozier…
Yes, you are trading away the franchise after one of his worst seasons and possibly selling low, but you’re signaling to fans that you’re trying to win now while winning for the future. PIT needs to take chances in their division knowing they’re most likely only going for the wild card.
If the bucs trade for dozier theyre kinda just making a move for the sake of making a move. Yes dozier is a better option than josh harrison at second but both are controlled for the same amount of years and a subsequent move (presumably trading harrison) would have to be made to offset salary in addition to the loss of prospects to acquire dozier. If the bucs make any major addition it needs to be a deal for quintana to stabilize the rotation and have more years of control over an all star caliber, cost controlled player.
Dozier is a good player, but the Bucs have bigger needs than 2B right now. Because if Kang’s legal issues, the early offseason talk of them shopping Harrison has quieted and is probably off the table. Even if they would deal Harrison, Dozier is not a “face of a franchise” player: he’s very goo, but he’s not worth the cost for the Pirates. Other teams have greater need for him.
There are dozens of players I’d rather spend assets on than Dozier.
He’s not even the Twin I’d want the Pirates to trade for the most, I’d sooner trade for Ervin Santana if Quintana is too pricey.
Twins fans seem to really value Dozier so if he sells tickets for them, so be it, keeping him makes sense from a business perspective.
But, it makes NO sense from a baseball perspective to keep him. Get DeLeon and whatever else you can and call the league office.
I think if they do sell, they would be selling at an all-time high so yes, he will be on another team come Spring Training.
Twins have to restock the farm and Buxton up makes it worse. Send Dozier not to LA but to St.Louis. Dozier for Luke Weaver, Jack Flaherty, Matt Adams, Kolten Wong
As a Twins fan, I’d do that but I’m not sure St Louis is really onto Dozier.
Additionally, I’m not sure the Twins need to restock so much as just improve the rotation.. They have 5 former top 100 prospects – 24 and under – playing 5 of the 8 positions next year. They have two more former top 100 pitching prospects – also under 24 – set to start the season in the rotation. They also have two more top 100 pitching prospects in AA.
The only way I’d want Dozier is if he could play 3rd. I feel like wong is a defensive gem in the makings, and could develop more power. 3rd base to me is our obvious weakest link in the infield. I wish they’d make the platoon Gyroko/Garcia instead of Peralta because he’s so defensively challenged.
Not happening, weaver isn’t nearly as good as DeLeon and the Twins need pitching
Right, but quantity would make up for the step down in “quality.”
And Weaver is a very good pitcher. He may not be De Leon, but the kid is very good.
No one said he was as good but he could develop into a great pitcher. He was rocky in the majors because he wasn’t nearly ready and the cardinals needed him in a bind. Now we don’t have that issue he’ll probably go back down and hone in is potential.
“he could develop into a great pitcher” – if you are gonna say this about luke weaver, how many other pitching prospects do you think could develop into great pitchers?
Adams and Wong don’t do much for the Twins. They have enough options at first base and have Polanco as a replacement at second. If Wongs deal wasn’t guaranteed he’d be more appealing.
Thats not happening LOL Adams can go sure.. Maybe Weaver in right deal.. But a deal involving 4 players. With 3 of them ML players is simply crazy for Dozier
Wong needs to get a long sustained run to blossom… The tools are there just not the consistency. Adams offers little.. No positional flex and doesnt hit for enough power.
Weaver is intriguing… Made huge jump from AA to AAA to ML in a single year.. Almost half is runs came over his last 2.2 IP for his ML season.
51/49 right now in favor of no, wow. Yeah, I feel like if they were going to do it, they would have done it by now. I just hope for their sake that Dozier starts off 2017 on fire.
I sure hope so too but I’m nervous — he can be a bit hot and cold. See beginning of last year, second half of 2015 — though iirc he was playing with a bad hip then. I think the Dodgers are low balling trying to get a 1 for 1 trade done but man a player’s trade value can go down pretty quickly, so there’s definitely always a risk in waiting til the deadline.
I’ll be fine if they keep him because he’s a great guy and a lot of fun to watch, but realistically trading him for players who can help the team in the future is the way he can best help the organization cos the Twins are going nowhere the next few years. Just fingers crossed when and for who they trade him for ends up working out.
If they aren’t overwhelmed then no. He is good for the team and a great guy. I say a minimum of 2 top 10 guys in a minor league system. I would prefer its Not DeLeon. The Twins have enough injury issues with their pitching already.
As soon as the blurb came out that the Dodgers are trying to make this a 1 for 1 deal it became painfully obvious that no trade is happening. That’s a major lowball in this market. Dozier will be on the twins.
Twins are definitely in a rebuilding mode but that is not a reason to sell cheap on your players. There are indeed questions defining Dozier’s true market value. Was last year’s Homerun power a anomaly or was it a preview of what we can expect from now on? Is he through being a streaky hitter or is he showing signs of stability? Make no mistake about it, he is a solid player with a exceptional skill set. He comes to compete every day and plays hard on both sides of the ball. He has Great makeup and is a leader on and off the field. I would hold onto him until a team realizes they need a play of this caliber to take them to the promised land. The examples of Lucroy and Hamels could in fact be a example of what the Twins could expect to happen with Dozier. The Tyson Ross example has everything to do with a player being injured and nothing about his skill set going backwards or being misread.
I don’t think they will, but they should.
The Dodgers are being stubborn and rightfully so when you’re trying to win now and don’t want to give up your future stars. The Twins new management are doing the right thing by not taking the first few offers that come their way. In the end, the one-for-one trade (Dozier for De Leon) will not work. I believe the Twins will hold onto Dozier and focus their attention on maintaining or raising the All-Star second baseman’s stock. If I were a Dodgers fan, I’d be concerned with the amount of talent the Nationals have acquired and continue to search for throughout the off season. The Cubs, Nationals, Giants and Dodgers all seem to be in a “win now” mentality. If the Dodger’s don’t make the move they may find themselves with a very expensive playoff team that doesn’t make it past the first round for the next 2-3 years (unless they can find another All-star 2nd basemen). I would like to see a deal done but the Dodgers will have to make the first move which I don’t think will happen.
Upside of holding on to Dozier — he hits .270 with 20 home runs and 60 RBI before All Star break. Downside, Dozier gets off to another horrible start, Dodgers acquire another second baseman like Forsythe and no longer in the market which lowers the Twins leverage with other teams. For me, De Leon is a very expensive prospect to trade for a second baseman who can become a FA after 2018, but Dodgers will likely add another player, or 2, to get the deal done. Bottom line, this trade is good for both teams and I believe it gets done. Nats — they have lost Ramos, Melancon, and 2 top pitching prospects while adding a RF’er to play CF.
Yup. Just because the Twins are overvaluing Dozier’s two years of team control doesn’t mean the Dodgers have to play along. For a team in rebuilding mode it makes little sense for them to hang onto a player with market value when they can get someone back at low cost and many years of team control. Whether they pull that trigger now or later is really the only question.
Dozier’s contract isn’t market value?
Lol your perception of this situation is very warped. The twins are in no way over valuing Dozier by saying they want more than a 25 year old prospect with a bad callup and history of shoulder inflammation. No two ways about this, the dodgers are attempting to buy undervalue and the twins are very smart to hold on to him if that’s all they can get. If Deleon was really worth all that much there’s no way that every single dodger fan on this place would be excited for this trade to happen. Some decent percentage would be hoping it didn’t happen. Mauer and others come off the books the same time Dozier becomes a free agent. The twins only have about 24 million of guaranteed contracts on the books for 2018. There’s literally nothing saying they couldn’t say forget the prospects and attempt to extend him. But that’s where the “if we are wowed” comes into play. If the dodgers make a real offer the deal may get done. But a deal that would make all dodger fans elated flat out unequivocally will not happen in this market and with the twins situation with Dozier. Pie in the sky if you think otherwise. And it does appear the dodgers are wanting to hold onto prospects so again I say this deal doesn’t happen
I think that Dozier is worth more than De Leon alone, no doubt in my mind, it is a matter of which prospect(s) to include. If Twins expect/demand Bellinger, or Alvarez, or Buehler then it isn’t going to happen and Dodgers move on to other second base options.
Warped? You are working on a logical Mobius strip here. All thoughts do not necessarily lead back to your premise just because that would be convenient for you.
Of course the Twins can afford to keep Dozier, but that is not the issue. The issue is whether they’d be better off with someone who can help them beyond 2018, and at controllable cost. The issue is whether they get more value from trading Dozier now than later. Nobody knows the answer to that question.
BTW, hardly every Dodger fan is excited by Dozier. Most of us understand the Dodgers’ roster and can read batting lines, and know that better options and better fits are potentially available.
If hardly any fan is excited about dozier, that gives even less value to deleon’s worth because I’m not seeing much of anyone unwilling to part with him for Dozier.
Well, we don’t know how either team is valuing Dozier. The only report that I am aware of was a Dodger offer of De Leon for Dozier straight up – as reported by mlbtraderumors. That offer would seem to be a big undervaluing by the Dodgers. If and when a deal is done, we’ll have a better idea of how the teams viewed his value.
Hardly every, not hardly any.
Even if you get the point right, it doesn’t advance your argument.
Exactly, the Dodgers should just pivot back to the Tigers and offer Deleon in a package for kinsler…then the Twins can suffer through years of competing in the same division with him on the tigers. Keeping Dozier does you zero good, he has a career year so its not like he is going to get better. If a better offer were out there it would have presented itself by now.
Deleon isn’t a sure thing. And kinsler would cost an extension. So the prospect haul would probably be less to the Tigers. Meaning if all they want to give up is Deleon for Dozier I don’t think it’ll be Deleon ++ for kinsler.
For that matter, Dozier not repeating isn’t a sure thing. Does seem unlikely, but it’s not anymore a sure regression than Deleon is a sure stud. If the Tigers are willing to take just Deleon for kinsler I agree, dodgers should do it.
IM sorry, but 7 WAR players should fetch a fair amount of value… If you expect Twins to hand over Dozier just because you value the dodgers prospects so much your crazy bro… Only people with valid opinions on the TRUE value of Dodgers prospects are Twins FO and Dodgers FO.. If they cannot agree then no deal will be made..
With the bar set by Sox for cost controlled assets so high, its only good business for Twins to hold out for best offer period.
The writers here have pointed this out multiple times and so have many posters…the white sox trades do not set the bar for a dozier trade.
Sox deals for cost controlled talent did set the bar high.. we dont have to agree thats ok. lack of movement currently lends credence to it
If you really understand the Dodgers’ roster, you would realize that De Leon is behind Kershaw, Maeda, Hill, Kazmir, McCarthy, Ryu, and Urias in the current pecking order for the Dodgers’ rotation. He’s not on track to be in the rotation until 2019, which is why the Dodgers want to trade him. The Twins are not at all overvaluing the two years of control Dozier has left by asking for more than a 24 year old pitching prospect who has shoulder issues and who the Dodgers don’t even need. He’d be a great centerpiece don’t get me wrong, but the Twins should absolutely get more in a deal for Dozier. Did you seriously say you can read batting lines and understand there are potentially better options and fits available? I’m pretty sure there’s no one else potentially available who’s 4th in OPS, 1st in homers, 4th in doubles, 3rd in RBI, 4th in steals, and 1st in runs among second basemen over the past 3 seasons and is earning only 7.5 million per year for the next two seasons. Unless the Dodgers want Micah Johnson as their second baseman next season, they should start getting more aggressive in their pursuit of Dozier.
Kazmir was just plain awful last season, McCarthy ended it injured, and it appears doubtful that Ryu will ever pitch again. So yeah, I understand the Dodgers’ roster, but I don’t think you do. The reality is that the Dodgers have absolutely no need to trade DeLeon. He’s controllable for years. Worst case scenario, he’s kept as depth, and if there’s anything this FO believes in as a religion, it’s depth. So there’s no “want” on the Dodgers side as far as moving DeLeon is concerned. Zero.
And again, if you are going to project future problems for DeLeon based on some vague medical theory, you might also want not to cite only Dozier’s last season as the only way of representing his work. Yes I know I can point out his career line a hundred times, and I can also point out the two years of control, and never get anywhere. But there it is, just the same. Simple facts to be ignored.
As for fits, Kinsler is exactly what the Dodgers need. He ticks all the boxes. Whether he’s actually available, nobody really knows. But no question he’s a far better fit for the Dodgers’ needs.
BTW, I have already said I think the Twins maybe get more than just DeLeon for Dozier, just nobody else from the top drawer.
What’s Forsythe going to cost though? I feel like he is a core player for a Tampa Bay team that wants to contend this year.
Rays should trade Forsythe and Boxberger/Cedeno for Verdugo, Trayce Thompson, Jacob Rahme and Wille Calhoun.
No chance dodgers make that trade.
Dodgers have Micah Johnson and Willie Calhoun (more bat than glove) in the minors…….neither is ready for an April 2017 debut, but one could be ready for a June or July arrival. Dodgers would love to have Dozier to bolster the production from 2B, but they shouldn’t “give up the Farm” for a guy who had a HUGE year, one time………
De Leon is not guaranteed to be a star. He looks like he will be very good, but pitching prospects don’t always pan out. But the Dodgers would be nuts to give up Vedugo or Bellinger in any deal for a 2B they might only have for 2 years.
1 time? he had a 5 plus war in 2 of the last 3 years. and giving up the farm? deloen a number 3 or 4 starter (potentially) and someone like vedugo who is blocked back a few guys if giving up the farm then your farm system must not be as strong as everyone is saying
The true bottom line is DeLeon does not have be a star (let alone, come with any guarantee to be one) to provide substantial value in exchange for Dozier. All he has to do is succeed as a serviceable bottom-end of the rotation pitcher. It’s surprising how many people who call themselves baseball fans don’t seem to understand the inherent value of having a player of that kind under team control for 6-7 years.
This idea that brian dozier dramatically changes the dodgers playoff success odds is just not based in reality. The playoffs are an extremely small sample of games that opens them up to a ton of variability and randomness. Adding a player like Dozier makes the dodgers better, but it doesn’t change their odds this huge amount that people are insinuating.
The dodgers have been holding on to prospects for over 2 years now its nothing new. They could have had anyone on the market for seager and decided not to ( Before seager was called up and a proven major leaguer)
They haven’t even been holding onto prospects in general (rich hill/reddick trade), they seem to have just identified a few that they don’t want to move and those that they are more open to using as trade chips.
What if the A’s offer Snokinski, Yonder Alonso and a player to be named later?
That doesn’t really help the Twins.
I have no idea who snokinski even is, but unless you are planning on taking Mauer I don’t see what value yonder Alonso is to anyone, much less the twins
Dodgers; otherwise, no he stays (I think)
The dodgers are more worried long-term than winning a title so they keep low balling the twins. He won’t be traded until the deadline.
It’s the Cardinals in my heart that will sign him.
he isn’t a free agent
Obviously if it was going to happen I think it would be done by now EXCEPT the dodgers still haven’t solved their 2nd base hole so to me it’s open until they do something that shows they are moving on.
Dozier should be traded but I think the twins asking price is gonna be too high. I think it will be a huge loss for the twins because I don’t see him producing the same numbers next season.
This is one of the closest polls we have had on here. It makes me even more interested to see the actual outcome of if he gets traded before the season starts or not.
I figure everyone thought he’d be traded. And then the Dodgers showed interest and they have the prospects so everyone thought it’d be done soon. But it didn’t happen and some doubt creeped in. And it just dragged on and more doubt. And then there was a Heyman report that the Dodgers were viewed as stingy with their prospects and even more doubt.. And then there was the report that the Dodgers were just offering a 1:1 trade and that’s when I figured the two sides were just too far apart.
It’s gonna happen, the dodgers are gonna get the great second basemen we need, and the twins will be getting the better end of the deal, they are rumored to get De Leon and Yadier Alvarez
they aren’t getting them both
What about the Braves jumping in on Dozier? They have plenty of prospects to make it happen. They are really looking for an answer to 3rd base but could shuffle things around and make it work.
Braves are already betting on an internal option to be their long term solution at 2B.
baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=albi…
Braves are planning on Albies being their second baseman of the future
Neither Twins or Dodgers are closing the door on a Dozier trade, but still haggling over the players in return. Perhaps expanding the trade will get past the seeming impasse. Dodgers send De Leon and a better prospect(s) with Twins sending Dodgers a pitcher like Burdi?
Does burdi really present much value anymore though?
Generally speaking, the idea of the twins *sending* pitching in this trade is unrealistic, but I suppose if the right players come back anything is possible.
The dodgers are being cheap. The Twins should hold their ground, and demand fair value.
If Dozier isn’t traded in 2017, the Twins can extend him and be competitive in 2018.
While the Dodgers have a real need for Dozier, I am guessing that Friedman is loathe to buy high on the guy when there are other options (Kinsler, Forsythe, etc.). AF also knows that the LAD are really alone in offering a premium prospect at this point. He knows he has the best offer on the table and he does not want to bid against himself.
All that said, if I were the Twins, I’d hold onto the guy, gamble that Dozier will not under perform in the first half of 2017 AND that a better market might materialize in July. The Twins really need to get an overpay for Dozier and the small market that exists today (one team really) is just not going to produce the prospect yield that the CWS got earlier this winter.
everyone is saying kinsler kinsler have the tigers made any more that suggest they are selling the team off. i know there are reports of listening to offers but nothing happening the royals and white soxs have been selling this off season and the twins are rebuilding why would the tigers not keep going for it they have the best lineup in the central with now the second best rotation and even if they trade kinsler he has a no trade clus so its going to cost you an extinction so you paying for 35-37 year old kinsler at least
A bit of perspective here. I do not have a dog in the fight but am struck by the Dodger fan’s views on the value of their prospects. Reminds me of the gross overvaluations that Yankees fan’s used to attach to their prospects. Each one is just about to turn into a superstar. I would ask D-Blue fans if they would trade any of the following for Jose DeLeon….Grandal, A-Gon, Turner, or Puig? Not likely… Although WAR is not flawless, it is an objective and contextualized measurement of performance. Per Baseball Reference here is the cumulative WAR for these 4 players and Dozier the past 3 years.. Grandal 5.4, A-Gon 9.9, Turner 13.0, Puig 7.8….Dozier 14.1. Deleon is not a market value trade
If you believe that then you need to read some other posts for perspective.
Well, you’re right. If De Leon was the market value for Dozier, the trade would have happened already. Half a season of Zorbrist got the A’s Manaea and a relief pitcher. Gomez/Friers got a pretty big haul and the expected value of their return was probably somewhere south of 8 WAR. Two years of Dozier is probably worth 8 WAR for the Dodgers, plus whatever bonus you want to give for making a good team better.
Dozier should net a couple top 100 prospects plus some lesser prospect. But the reports suggest the teams are too far away to get something done.
Try turning that argument around for a second: if the Twins were asking market value for Dozier, he’d be traded by now.
Also, what is the expected WAR of a stating pitcher over 5-6 years?
Of course it can’t possibly work that way.
yea but dozier u are getting 8 war for the two years barring any injury, deleon has not pitched over 120 innings a a pro that she he will have to be stretched out and is not a starting pitcher in the major leagues in 2017, that being said he is a prospect what are the odds of a prospect that pans to what there ceiling is and 10% maybe 20% at most so ur getting a 1 in 5 shot at a mid rotation starting pitcher for a guaranteed all star caliber 2nd baseman ( barring injury)
So you make the absolute best case future assumption for Dozier and the worst case future assumption for DeLeon? Sure, that works. I’m positive that’s exactly the conversation the Twins and Dodgers are having right now.
Once again, Dozier has proven what he can do in MLB. Deleon could be a huge bust. There’s a reason prospects are called “prospects”. The likelihood of Doziers value is higher than the likelihood of deleons value and there’s no real logical counter argument to that. It’s fact.
Does that mean that it’s guaranteed that Dozier is worth more in the long run? Of course not. But giving up Dozier for an uncertain prospect and then a couple minor leaguers that aren’t even expected to be good is just terrible business. Think how mad you’d be if the dodgers were the ones just getting one reasonably projected prospect in return.
Once again, you have ignored pretty much everything I’ve said, and rated your speculations as being more certain than facts. Makes it kind of difficult to discuss any further.
I’m not sure it’s overvaluing or at least it shouldn’t be. I think a major problem here is volatility of the rotation. No one is expecting the likes of Kaz,McCarthy, Ryu etc to make it through even half a season of pitching particularly well or healthy. I think we started seeing flashes of the healthy wood until he got injured. Then you talk about Hill. Then you have to ask if Maeda can actually make the adjustment to the full MLB workload. Then you hope Kersh can heal and do Kersh things. So you definitely understand the hesitation of the Dodgers adding DeLeon, Stewart, plus plus. So when it comes down to it Urias and DeLeon might end up becoming much needed options complimenting the rotation. If they can buy Dozier low at this point, which what they are likely trying to do, then they should do it the. The Twins should also wait until their needs are met. This just screams as a trade deadline deal. By then the Dodgers should have a clearer understanding of what their OF situation looks like and more importantly how their rotation shakes out. Major power at 2b isn’t really to much of a concern especially since you’re getting above average power up the middle at premium positions. The more important issue at this point is trying to find a placeholder against LHP until the trade deadline if this isn’t going to materialize.
Love this point
I would say no if they haven’t yet thus far into the off-season, but maybe at next season’s trade deadline as the contenders look for a boost.
.289/.332/.417/.749
Howie Kendrick’s career line. The Dodgers got him for one pitching prospect, Andrew Heaney, in 2015.
.246/.320/.442/.762
Brian Dozier’s career line. I don’t buy him hitting 42 home runs again, and if you don’t either, overall production is much more in line with Kendrick, just with more power and below average BA and OBP.
2015 Kendrick: .295/.336/.409/.746
2015 Dozier: 236/.307/.444/.751
Dodgers had a 2B with production like Dozier in 2015 and it didn’t take them to the “promised land.” As far as I am concerned, Dozier is worth what Kendrick was: one good pitching prospect. Maybe the Dodgers will sweeten the pot, but I suspect they’d be just as happy keeping De Leon and looking elsewhere.
Excellent points.
I am not sure if your comparison of Dozier and Kendrick is meant to be serious or not. 14.1 WAR Dozier vs past 3 years vs 6.9 War for Howie. Dozier sat for 18 games total the past 3 years, Howie sat for 66 games. Dozier had 107 2B’s, Howie had 81, Dozier had 93 HRs, Howie had 24, Dozier had 51 SBs, Howie had 30. Dozier tied Rogers Hornsby and Dave Johnson for the all time record for HRs in a season. Dozier was paid $5.54MM total in those 3 years, Howie was paid $28.8MM. The aforementioned was why LA only had to give up Heaney.
For those trying to position Dozier’s HRs in 2016 as a fluke, they have to ignore the 93 total HRs the past 3 years. For context, A-Gon hit 73 HRs and 105 2Bs in the same time period batting in the middle of the order and playing 1B, Turner hit 50 HRs and 80 2Bs, etc. The discounting of Dozier’s power is ridiculous. The other meme about Dozier’s contract only being 2 years is bizarre. I would hazard a guess that the richest team in baseball could extend Dozier if they would like to keep him, just as they did with Hill and Reddick.
Sorry, but batting lines don’t lie. Dozier’s SLG and OPS last season were more than 100 points over his career. Since power is his main sales point, it’s certainly reasonable to question whether that is repeatable.
23 homers and 33 doubles has been repeatable for 3 season name a dodger that has show that much power and as consistent!
Sorry, batting lines don’t lie.
LOL ok I changed my mind, your position isn’t warped, you’re a GD moron. You just read a reply that obliterated a nonsense comparison of two completely different scenarios and basically replied with “nuh-uh, batting average”. I understand why your suggestions are insane now, you don’t understand how any of this works. Done talking to you after this one. Peace.
production means nothing dont you know that
Batting line, not batting average. Really, you might want to rethink playing the insult king when you haven’t actually read what others post.
You’re cherry picking. Not sure what 2015 has to do with 2017. And you’re leaving out age, base running and defense. But whatever. Dozier is miles better than Kendrick.
I would love to see the Twins forget about De Leon and really focus in on Bellinger and Alvarez. Dozier alone would not make this trade happen but if the Twins could add some veterans to the deal or take on some unwanted salary from the Dodgers then it could potentially be a possibility. It would be hard for the Dodgers to part with those guys so the other piece with Dozier would have to be good if not 2-3 other mid levels.. I would love to see Bellinger come over and take over 1B for Mauer in 2018 when we have a shot again, and that would certainly soften the blow of losing our best player and clubhouse leader in Minnesota in Dozier. Just not sold on De Leon although he would certainly provide an upgrade to our lack of quality pitching depth.
See I just don’t see Bellinger ever happening.
And I think Alvarez is even less likely to happen.
Braves should send Jace Pederson, Matt Wisler, and Sean Newcomb for Dozier
I applaud both FO for seeing value in their player assets. The Twins rightfully want an overpay for their one true marketable player, while the Dodgers believe that JDL is fair value. The Dodgers do need a 2B who can hit LHP. Dozier hit LHP at .282/.352/.613/.965. The Dodgers had two hitters with at least 50 AB and a .250 BA against LHP. Puig was .261/.313/.471/.784 while Seager was .250/.308/.413/.722. Culberson did hit .333 but with only 48 AB. Dozier is not going to hit 42 HRs for LAD, but with 21 HR away, he is legit threat at 25 HR.
I am not sure what the fuss about Dozier’s defense is either. Dozier had a .989 fielding % (8 errors), a range factor of 4.61, and participated in 118 double plays. AGon participated in 77 DPs in 153 Games at 1B. Dozier is a far better 2B than the Dodgers had in 2016 or have on their 40 Man. He is also veteran enough to continue Seager’s learning.
Twins fans like to call JDL a #4 or #5 rotation MLB considers him a legit #2 prospect. JDL is 24 not 26 as some have said. He is higher rated than the Twins #1 overall (Tyler Jay), and far more regarded than their #2 pitcher Stephen Gonsalvez. JDL has tremendous swing and miss potential. Tyler Jay who is working on becoming a starting pitcher may be best suited to become an elite closer. JDL immediately becomes a member of the Twins rotation, and could legitimately battle Santiago (29) (who was a better pitcher for the Halos than the Twins) for #2 behind Santana. He certainly is comparable if not better than Duffy/Gibson/Berrios/Hughes/Dean.
The Dodgers do need Dozier (or Forsythe/Kinsler/Solarte/Phillips), but it is doubtful that they will be able to extend him (or re-sign him in 2 years) as he is more of a country boy who loves Minnesota. I am not sure how he performs in LA. So he is not worth a #2 and #5 (Alveraz). But they are certainly not going to overpay for a career .246/.320/.442/.762 hitter with a 108 OPS+ and 18.4 WAR over 5 years. If the Twins want to move Dozier now, they need for this to be an overpay in prospects. One is not enough for them. So if the Dodgers do need to add a player, they should consider one of Sheffield/De Jong/Sopko/Sborz. If this is not enough for the Twins (and it probably is not) then hold on to Dozier until July where someone will probably need a 2B and be willing to overpay. Or as someone else suggested, extend him. I would think that 3 years plus a club option gets that done.
every where has said de leon is a number 3 or 4 and he would not be a starting pitcher for the twins right away he has only pitched 120 pro innings tops. berrios has had just as good as number in AA and AAA and he also has pitched 120 more innings in the last 2 years showing that is is ready for the workload unlke deleon
Excellent analysis alwayscomplete!
Please, for the love of all that is holy, can we stop using fielding percentage and errors to prove defense? We have so much more and better information now.
I think everyone has made some good points and some bad ones. The poles are nearly 50/50. Neither team is budging and the Twins have made it clear they want final offers from all interested teams which, in my opinion, means they’re ready to move on with their All-Star second basemen in 2017. We as fans can continue to speculate over arbitrary reasons why either team is wrong but in the end the question is ‘Will the Twins trade Dozier?’ and I would have to say ‘No’. If I’m wrong and the Twins do make a trade then it most likely will be on their terms. If Dozier stays and fails to perform in 2017 the Twins can try to sign him to a new agreement. Torii Hunter knighted Dozier as the leader in the club house before he left. Dozier has had incrementally better seasons and an affordable contract. I’d be happy to see him back but like the Twins front office said I’d have to be ‘wowed’. For a new GM and PBO they sure are sticking to their guns and may be sending a message to other teams about how the new Twins Front Office does things and are willing to walk away if not impressed. We’ll have to see if it pans out.
The Dodgers will probably hold strong because they do have other internal options and can also sign Utley to a one year contract. Maybe they don’t have great options, but non the less they have enough so they don’t embarrass themselves.