Although first baseman Chris Carter wasn’t scheduled to hit the open market entering the offseason, that changed when the Brewers designated the 30-year-old for assignment Nov. 29. Milwaukee then shopped Carter around the majors, but after the club was unable to find any trade partners willing to take his projected $8.1MM salary for 2017, it cut him loose Dec. 2. A month later, Carter remains among a group of powerful but flawed hitters still sitting without contracts.
Pros/Strengths
Few provide more thump than the right-handed Carter, who co-led the National League with 41 home runs last season, paced the NL in isolated power (.277) and finished eighth in the majors in barrels (56, per Statcast). Since 2013, Carter’s first full major league campaign, only five players (Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, the now-retired David Ortiz and Mike Trout) have combined for more homers than his 131, while just seven (the aforementioned names as well as Giancarlo Stanton and Khris Davis) have outdone his .251 ISO.
Carter also brings above-average patience, having registered double-digit walk rates in three of his four full seasons. He took a free pass 11.8 percent of the time in 2016, which was right in line with his career mark (11.6) and easily superior to the league mean (8.2). Further, if Carter’s on your roster, you can count on penciling him in nearly every day (he has racked up three 145-game seasons, including a career-high 160 last year) and he isn’t overly vulnerable against either right- or left-handed pitchers. While Carter has done better versus southpaws (.221/.337/.459 in 840 plate appearances), his production against righties (.217/.303/.466 in 1,805 PAs) has certainly been respectable.
Cons/Weaknesses
If you’re a fan of hitters who put the ball in play regularly, you’re probably not particularly bullish on Carter, who has posted strikeout percentages in the low-30s and contact rates in the mid-60s in each of his major league seasons. All told, Carter has recorded league worsts in strikeout and contact rates (33.2 and 64.9, respectively) since 2013, and he ended up last in those two categories in 2016. As a result, Carter is the owner of an ugly .218 career batting average, which has heavily detracted from the value of his power and patience combination and led to a subpar on-base percentage (.314).
Elsewhere, the lumbering Carter doesn’t offer positives either on the base paths or in the field. He was a bottom 20 baserunner last season in the estimation of FanGraphs’ UBR and BsR metrics, while both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating regarded him as one of the worst first basemen in the league.
Background
Carter is a Redwood City, Calif., native who grew up in Las Vegas, where he still resides during the offseason. When the White Sox selected Carter in the 15th round of the 2005 draft, he was a third base prospect. Carter has never lined up at the hot corner in the majors, though, and he wasn’t long for the ChiSox organization. They traded him to Arizona for outfielder Carlos Quentin in December 2007, and the Diamondbacks quickly flipped him (along with Carlos Gonzalez and Brett Anderson, among others) to the Athletics a week and a half later for right-hander Dan Haren. Carter remained with the A’s until February 2013, when they sent him and two others (catcher Max Stassi and righty Brad Peacock) to the Astros for infielder Jed Lowrie and reliever Fernando Rodriguez.
In his time with the A’s, Astros and Brewers, Carter – who’s a client of the Dave Stewart-run Sports Management Partners – has made $7.679MM, according to Baseball Reference.
Market
Carter is currently taking a backseat to fellow right-handed free agent sluggers in Mark Trumbo, Jose Bautista and Mike Napoli, though multiple teams have made inquiries, Stewart said a couple weeks ago. The Orioles, Rangers and Rays were reportedly interested in adding Carter as of last month, and all three still have holes at first base and/or designated hitter. Carter would be a fit with any of those clubs, then, while staying in the NL and joining the Rockies is also a possibility. Carter taking his prodigious power to Colorado’s Coors Field is fun to think about, but heading to the AL – where he’d be able to DH – might be the better move.
Expected Contract
It has been almost exactly one year since Carter inked a $2.5MM deal with the Brewers last Jan. 6. That came on the heels of a 24-homer season in which he failed to clear the Mendoza line with a .199 average in 460 trips to the plate. Thanks to his bounce-back 2016, Carter is more appealing now than he was last winter, though another one-year contract appears likely. Carter’s next deal should be richer than his previous one, but given that teams didn’t want him at his projected arbitration salary, he’ll hardly break the bank.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
He’s not the kind of guy a team targets but I wouldn’t be super dissapointed as an Os fan if they signed him to a one year deal for 4 million and put him in the 8th hole and let him do his thing. No need to play the field. Not even on the level of Trumbo and Cruz but cheap on a one year contract with regular at bats in OPACY could be worth the sign. The Os don’t want to pay that to Pedro Alvarez and he is trying hard to find a job elsewhere.
Why would the O’s sign carter? If they need a right handed DH they have Mancini. They aren’t about to add a worse version of him for more money
This move could make sense for the White Sox as well. One of Davidson, Garcia, or Coats is likely to be DH, unless the Sox make a signing. It wouldn’t cost much and chicks love dingers….
I never actually heard that from a chick.
A cheap source of power who will probably produce more than Eric Thames.
Agreed! People are ignorant
Produce what more than Thames? HR? Yeah, probably. But Thames is a better all-around hitter, will get on base much more, will play a much better 1b, runs the bases much better, can play both corner OF spots so more versatile and he’s 5M/yr so around what Carter will land. So other than all those things that matter, yeah, Carter will produce more
You have a quite high opinion of what Thames will do. Last time he played in the majors he was quite bad. Worse than Carter.
Feel free to question Thames but to suggest the Brewers should have paid Carter $8 mil for one year on a rebuilding club is also questionable.
Sounds like they paid Thames about 16m though for how long?
Ah, chicks dig the long ball. One my favorite commercials as a kid. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, check it out.
There are so many of these type of players available this year. Kinda weird
Agree … advanced metrics are neutering their value (25 – 30 HR guys who drive in 75-80 runs and strikeout a ton are not held in high regard) What doesn’t make sense about Carter is the 41hr/94rbi. I think Carter is a slight exception. If he could get his OBP to .345 (ie hit .235 vs .222) it would make a world of difference
well his BA is always gonna be awful, and unless he can grind out 20 more walks a year, his offensive value is just meh. also he can’t passably play the field so yeah modern metrics hate him, he’s a man playing in the wrong era.
Could be a really rich man in Japan or Korea!
Modern valuation does indeed dislike these players. So it’s interesting to see so many of them hitting the open market in the same year as the front offices seem to be inline with each other on how these players are valued.
I’m not sure if this is just coincidence, or them all getting to free agency is a result of teams not valuing them and thus not extending contracts to them or not trying to work out extensions with them.
I was having this same thought. Collusion of information prying loose less desirable talent? Collusion isn’t the right word…not implying teams actively working together….but they are coming to the same data and economic conclusions. But in the end…these players do have real world value of some kind…A team that has a place for them…say no real DH/1B incumbent..will put a price on them. It’ll be interesting to see what the price for this talent is…or if these players turn into a string of one year vets.
Miami should leap on this guy. They need a RH 1B and were sorely lacking in power last year.
What’s the difference between the value of Carter vs Alvarez? Seems like Pedro is being valued more; Boras? I have not looked at the numbers, but wondering if those two are of similar value.
Alvarez isn’t limited to the DH
Carter’s a terrible, terrible fielder even at 1b
U have not watched Pedro play D if u think he is capable of anything other than a platoon dh
Alvarez is awful in the field as well, even at 1B. I doubt any team would be excited to have him play anywhere other than DH (25 errors in 99 games at 3B in 2014, 23 errors in 124 games at 1B in 2015, 4 errors in 9 chances at 3B in 2016).
Looked them up. Carter 114 OPS 41 bombs in 549 ABs. Alvarez 115 OPS 22 bombs in 337 ABs. Thinking their contract would be very similar.
OPS plus. App omitted the plus sign.
Im not sure I like Alvarez exposed to 500 AB…he’s a platoon guy.
For a team that lacks power Carter for about $4Mil isn’t a bad idea even if you have a young unproven player that you want to see first. Could be awhile for him to sign though with people wanting to see if the price drops on Trumbo, Bastista, and Napoli.
A’s, Rays and Jays make some sense.
Bring him back to the A’s they could use some pop
I like Chris Carter. I hope he finds a job.
Plus boras has said that Alvarez is open to the outfield. I don’t miss him with the pirates for a minute
Alvarez in the outfield? Boras is high…
The only time Alvarez should be in the outfield is to shag flies during batting practice. He was a complete and utter disaster as a first baseman, yet I could see him doing worse in the outfield.
Although Chris Carter is a larger version of Khris Davis. Still, I see him as a DH in Oakland.