The Rays shipped starter Drew Smyly to the Mariners earlier this month, and they might not be done dealing veterans from their rotation, a major league source told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. It’s doubtful the Rays will trade either ace Chris Archer or Alex Cobb, whose value is down because he hasn’t reestablished it since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2015, observes Cafardo. That leaves right-hander Jake Odorizzi as a vet who could end up on the move. Odorizzi’s name has come up in rumors throughout the winter after a season in which he posted a 3.69 ERA with 7.96 K/9 against 2.59 BB/9 in a career-high 187 2/3 innings. The soon-to-be 27-year-old is under team control via arbitration through the 2019 campaign.
More from Cafardo:
- The Indians were interested in right fielder Jose Bautista and reportedly even bid on him in free agency before he re-signed with the Blue Jays earlier this week. However, the Tribe’s pursuit of Bautista was overstated, according to manager Terry Francona. On the heels of an American League-pennant winning 2016, Francona also discussed other subjects with Cafardo – including the Indians’ signing of ex-Bautista teammate Edwin Encarnacion, reliever salaries and bullpen usage – so check out the column for the full rundown.
- Free agent righty Bronson Arroyo said a month ago that he was unsure if he’d be able to pitch again because, at the time, his arm felt “terrible” on certain days. Fortunately, Arroyo has made “great progress” and is hoping to sign with a team in late February for what would be his age-40 season, per Cafardo. Long a capable major league starter with primarily the Red Sox and Reds, injuries have kept Arroyo out of action since a June 2014 outing with the Diamondbacks. Arroyo underwent a Tommy John procedure later that year, causing him to miss the entire 2015 campaign. He then signed a minor league contract with the Nationals last winter, but he suffered a partial tear of a tendon in his right rotator cuff during spring training and has been rehabbing since.
- Interest in free agent catcher Ryan Hanigan is increasing as the spring nears, his agent, Tom O’Connell, informed Cafardo. The 36-year-old Hanigan has been available since November, when the Red Sox declined his $3.75MM option for 2017 after he batted an unappealing .171/.230/.238 in 113 plate appearances last season. Behind the plate, Hanigan also fell off in the pitch-framing department (via Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner), though he does carry a strong defensive track record.
The O’s should make a move for Odorizzi. I know they might not want to make a trade within their own division but he would be a huge upgrade over Jimenez in the rotation. A rotation of Tillman, Gausman, Bundy, Odorizzi, and Miley would be pretty solid. Maybe they’d start the offer around Mancini, sense he is blocked in Baltimore for 2-3 years with Trumbo resigning.
they don’t have what is required to trade for him
and what would Baltimore offer? Their farm system is laughable, the rays would hang up the phone right away if O’s asked for Odorizzi.
Typical homer fan overvaluing their own teams players. Now I’m not saying he’ll be cheap but he won’t get a huge haul. Probably 1 top 100 prospect but almost every team in the MLB has a good enough farm system to get Odorizzi.
Rays should wait until June and hope that a HOU vs TEX bidding war develops.
They are going to wait until June…and trade Alex Cobb. He’s a free agent next year and they need him to rebuild some value.
The value for Alex Cobb and Chris Archer is down, the latter because of a poor 2016 season. By definition, 9-19 pitchers can’t be aces, and Archer must build on a stronger second half of this past season. His peripherals don’t tell the accurate story of 2016, the strikeouts weren’t happening early in games when Archer wasn’t sharp. The Rays had a terrible year partly due to his disappointing season.
Chris Archer is now 28 years old, and at some point, will need to demonstrate the ability of a real ace. If not, this will be another example of a pitcher with good stuff not translating to results.
I’d argue Archer already demonstrated the ability to be an ace from 2013-15. He even brought quite a bit of value in 2016, record aside. Two-hundred innings of 4.00 ERA ball at a $2.75MM cost is a massive bargain. Given the track record and contract, Archer should have astronomical trade value.
Steve Carlton and Phil Neikro both had multiple 19 loss seasons and Nolan Ryan had an 8-16 season.
Over the past 3 seasons Chris Archer is top 15 in fWAR, innings, strike outs and xFIP. He’s also top 20 in FIP and top 25 in ERA. We can argue the definition of an ace, but what isn’t arguable is that over the past 3 seasons, Archer is one of the top 20 pitchers. He is also signed to one of the most team friendly contracts in baseball and has huge value, evidenced by the Astros offering 3 top 50 prospects, plus others. The Rays still said no to that trade.
Win and loss record isn’t a good stat to judge pitchers its based on run support a pitcher gets.
Are we still using pitcher win-loss records to prove things. Uhhh, it’s not 1956 anymore.
Win-loss records are still part of the evaluation for evaluating pitchers, I never claimed it was the only method. Steve Carlton, Phil Niekro, and Nolan Ryan are bad comps for Archer as they were already established starters. And also future hall of famers. And if anyone thinks Chris Archer has a prayer for Cooperstown, I’ve got some Florida swampland to sell you.
It’s a sellers market for pitching, so not surprising teams like Houston would be offering a generous package, poor judgment on the Rays for not accepting that deal. Tampa Bay is working on four straight losing seasons, so their opinion of huge value has to be taken with a grain of salt..
If Archer can finally deliver on his potential in 2017, I’ll gladly give him credit, and we can start talking realistically about value. But he’s no ace, I saw nearly all his starts this past season.
Win Loss records don’t tell anything really. Archer’s K/9 and walks/9 very similar to the year before the only real difference was HR/9 his ground ball percentage was up too. He plays on a poor team if he was on the Red Sox he might of won 18 games. He is still easily one of the most valuable pitchers when contract is considered in the game.
Won/Loss records do tell a partial story, the better pitchers usually have the records to support that claim. Part of the reason the Rays were a poor team last year was Archer’s disappointing season. Performance will always be the bottom line, even over the contract.
If you watched the Rays last season, especially in the first half, those K’s weren’t happening in the early part of games when Archer didn’t have sharp command. And the walks also came at inopportune times. This is why it’s so important to watch the games.
Win Loss records tell next nothing all GM’s and knowledgeable baseball people know that Archer is a stud. They all value him very highly more than likely he isn’t going anywhere but if he does he require a Sale type return. The win Loss thing is the same thing people argue with about Quintana and it’s just silly.
You’ve heard of bullpens, correct?
In 2015, Archer was top 12 in IP, FIP, xFIP, SO, fWAR and top 20 in ERA. Is that not establishing himself?
Did you watch every start of Steve Carlton in 1970 and know that he was an ace at the time and bound for the HOF even while struggling through a 10-19 record?
You say Carlton was established, but he was similarly established as Archer is now. Entering 1970, Carlton had 103 career starts with a 7.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.22 WHIP and 121 ERA+. Compare that to Archer who had 93 career starts with a 9.0 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.19 WHIP and 115 ERA+. Archer might not be headed to the HOF, but his stats show a TOR arm playing for a struggling team, much like a young Carlton was. Good to know that Archer can build on his very good 2nd half that saw him pitch 91 IP of 3.25 ERA, 3.29 FIP and 3.15 xFIP.
Well the writers do. It’s basically the key reason why Porcello won the Cy Young Award
I’m rooting for Arroyo, healthy for so long until it all piled up at once. Plus he fought A-rod so there’s that
Let Arroyo be the Cubs next “project”, He could be like Trevor Cahill/Clayton Richard. Would be interesting….
What’s more annoying, these bot posts or the people still trotting out “rave reviews” comments?