Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong
Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado earned $5MM last year, but after belting 41 home runs, knocking in 133 runs and hitting .294 in 696 plate appearances, he is due for a hefty raise. The record raise for a second-time-eligible position player on a one-year deal is Chris Davis’ $7.1MM increase in 2014. My model actually projects for an $8.4MM raise in Arenado’s case; however, the “Kimbrel Rule” – which states that no player gets projected for an increase over $1MM higher than the record raise for his service class – moves Arenado down to an $8.1MM raise (a $13.1MM salary).
Davis’ 2014 case is by far the most applicable to Arenado’s. Aside from those two, no other player eligible for his second year of arbitration has led his league in home runs and RBIs. Davis hit .286 with 53 homers and 138 RBIs the prior year, so his numbers are similar except for clearly having more HRs. However, Arenado does play a harder defensive position than Davis, a first baseman, and the former actually won a Gold Glove last year. So there is a good reason to think that Arenado could earn more, especially three years later. But the 12 fewer home runs signify that it is less than a sure thing.
Finding another comparable is extremely difficult. No other third basemen since 2009 have even hit 20 home runs and received one-year deals in their second year of arbitration eligibility. No other position players have hit at least 35 home runs and received one-year deals in their second year of arbitration eligibility.
Using players receiving multi-year deals is generally not customary in these cases, but can be done in some unique circumstances. Often when both the player and the team exchange numbers, the club’s offer can be seen as a potential comparable case. Josh Donaldson’s case last year could be one such scenario. Donaldson hit the exact 41 home runs that Arenado did this past year, and knocked in 123 runs (just 10 shy of Arenado’s total). He also hit .297, which is almost exactly where Arenado landed. Donaldson ultimately received a multi-year deal, but he first exchanged figures with the Blue Jays, who offered a $7.05MM raise. Donaldson’s two-year deal gave him a $7.35mM raise. He did win the MVP in his platform year, so that could be a better case, but the multi-year deal probably makes it a weaker comparable. On the other hand, Donaldson only requested a $7.5MM raise, so it would be hard to see why Arenado would get more without an MVP award.
I would guess that Arenado ultimately receives closer to a $7MM raise than the $8.1MM he is projected to land. Davis’ extra home runs and Donaldson’s MVP award help their cases look stronger than Arenado’s, and even though Donaldson got a multi-year deal, his exchange of salary figures with the Jays fit into a pretty tight window. Arenado may argue that Donaldson’s case is not applicable, and that Davis’ extra home runs came with less defense, but it might not work. Although fielding is certainly considered in arbitration cases, I have not found any statistically significant impact of defense on earnings and the overall effect is limiting. Arenado may yet earn his lofty projection, but I would take the under.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
pat09
The Rockies will need to find a way to lock him long term, and it will need to happen pretty soon
Slipknot37
Don’t be surprised if they try to extend him when he’s closer to hitting free agency
Priggs89
The sooner the better IMO. Assuming they expect him to continue hitting like this, he’s going to get real expensive real fast. Might as well try to lock him up so 1) you might be able to get him at a little bit of a discount assuming he wants the guaranteed money now, and 2) you’ll at least know what you have to pay him going forward. Worth a try at least.
yanks2009
They will try hard but he have no interest on signing long term with the Rockies
yanks2009
Nolan wants to win a championship… so he’s not looking to sign long term with the Rockies.
halos101
typical yankee fan assuming everybody is signing with the yankees
yanks2009
Of course the Yankees.. do you think he wants to go to a losers team? Become a Yankees fan and stop suffering with only 1 championship!!!
Priggs89
The Yankees have won 1 championship in the last 16 years. This ain’t the same Yankees that they used to be.
yanks2009
The Yankees have won 5 championship on the last 20 yrs and that is more than ur team have ever won…and we will become a dynasty soon and you fans will hate us again
jdgoat
Insufferable
BrodiesHairisGreezy!
This guy Arenado plays third base like Brooks Robinson and can hit like noone else. He is well worth it to be in the 30mil class. He is fantastic and I hear he works very hard at playing his position. This year the Rockies might very well be the surprise team. I really like their lineup and some of their pitching.
santosPinkyToe
You’re not a surprise team if ESPN is saying you’re a surprise team.
BrodiesHairisGreezy!
Didnt know that ESPN had called that. I use my own brain to form my own opinions.
Megadro2000
Nolan Arenado= Most underrated baseball player in the game(he is better than Bryant). Better defensively and better offensively
Priggs89
He is not better than Bryant offensively when you take him out of Coors… Albeit, he’s still VERY good.
AlvaroEspinoza 2
Career .762 OPS outside of Coors.
Career .937 OPS in Colorado.
That’s Kris Bryant at home, Eduardo Nunez on the road (by 2016 stats).
Billings 2
Better defensively, no question. Ops outside of Coors is not good, so offensively I give it to Bryant.
Priggs89
He had an .832 OPS outside of Coors last year (and .835 in 2015)… While it’s not even remotely close to the ridiculous 1.000+ he put up at home, I’d hardly call that “not good.”
halos101
he is insanely underrated and a great player in and out of coors. He may be better defensively, but he’s not quite kris bryant offensively
NineChampionsips
Dat Coors effect. Colorado hitters will never get the respect they deserve. I hope they shock the baseball world and win the series next year.
AddisonStreet
No Rotation or Pen means no chance.
jdgoat
Their rotations actually pretty underrated
sngehl01
Underrated? How? Gray has some nasty stuff, but their rotation, as a whole, is a steamy mess.
The only way you can consider them underrated is if you think they are the worst rotation in the game. Even then, they would barely qualify for “underrated.”
jdgoat
A rotation headed by Jon Gray, Tyler Chatwood, and Tyler Anderson isn’t a steamy mess. Having Bettis as your fourth is acceptable, and if they can find a solid fifth starter they’ll be set.
Red Ivy
Apparently Nolan Arenado is the greatest player of all time.
Senioreditor
I hear he can throw a 100!
tugriverred
Nolan Arenado is superior to Donaldson , by far superior to Chris Davis not gonna say he’s superior to Bryant but would bet he will be much more consistent throughout his career . If he reaches free agency there will be a bidding war regardless of the market .
jdgoat
Well of course he’s superior to Davis. That’s like comparing a lambo to a civic.
halos101
hahah true
Priggs89
I would take that bet.
09meara
These arbitration articles are good reads. Very thorough and insightful. Thank you.
377194
Sign him to a ten year $300 million contract
Priggs89
Good idea. Smart business move.
buddyleex
@MattSwartz does your model compensate that Arenado was a super-two and has 1 year less service time than Donaldson or Machado? I have him projected around 11.2m.