Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Manny Machado enters his second year of arbitration eligibility with a $5MM base salary and a strong case for a solid raise. My model projects him to reach $11.2MM, good for a $6.2MM raise, after an All-Star campaign with a .294 batting average, 37 home runs and 96 runs batted in. The model is a useful tool here, and probably came up with a reasonable guess, because so few comparables are appropriate for Machado’s platform year.
Position players like Machado generally receive multi-year deals in lieu of one-year pacts once they reach their second year of arbitration. In the last decade, only 10 players have hit at least .280 and belted 30 homers going into their second year of arbitration eligibility, and a full seven of those 10 received multi-year deals before reaching agreement on a single-year number.
Only two of those cases have occurred since 2007 – Jacoby Ellsbury in 2012 and Chris Davis in 2014. Ellsbury received a $5.65MM raise, while Davis’ salary grew by a full $7.05MM. Both players had better platform years than Machado. Ellsbury hit .321 with 32 home runs, 39 stolen bases and 105 RBI. Davis hit .286 with 53 blasts and knocked in 138. Ellsbury’s case is probably stale, however (it is now five years old), so even though he only received a $5.65MM raise there is reason to expect Machado could eclipse that number. Davis’ case is only three years old, and it’s harder to argue that Machado should get a bigger raise. The model, in fact, does not believe this to be true.
With Ellsbury’s case stale and Davis’ looking more like a ceiling, it makes sense to look for a floor for Machado. But it is difficult to find one. In the last three years, no other second-year-eligible player has received a single-year deal with a raise larger than the $2.77MM that Daniel Murphy received. But Murphy had only clubbed 13 homers and hit .286. While he had stolen 23 bases, he only knocked in 78 runs. Clearly Machado should get a far larger raise than Murphy.
Going back further, Hunter Pence in 2011 is a longshot possibility for a floor. He received a $3.4MM raise after posting a .282/25/91 line. Pence’s case was clearly inferior, and the six-year gap between his case and Machado’s certainly makes him a floor.
It’s clear that Machado is likely to earn less than Davis’ $7.05MM raise, but he’s also likely to get more than Pence’s $3.4MM increase. There is an argument that Machado should earn less than Ellsbury’s $5.65MM raise, but given the five-year lag between the two cases, that may not be applicable anyway. I suspect that the model’s $6.2MM projected raise is as a reasonable of an estimate as we can expect for Machado’s unique situation. It falls short of Davis, but with Machado playing better defense at a harder position, he probably will not fall all that far short despite the significant gap in power numbers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
leftykoufax
This guy is one of my fantasy mainstays in my league, pay the man, he deserves it!
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
That’s nice, but his attitude sux!!!
He wants 30+ million a year, I say let the Yankees pay him
dorfmac
Odd you say that because I’ve never heard him or his agent say anything of the sort. Not to mention, he’s worth $30/year.
newera36
That statement is just nonsense.
ilikebaseball 2
What’s an appropriate 2 year deal? 30 million?
davidcoonce74
I’d add at least ten million to that number.
chesteraarthur
why? you are looking at 11ish this year and 17-18 next year. 30 is probably right about what it’d take
Chefno2
If Dodgers don’t end up signing Machado after 2018 or Arenado after 2019 then I’ll be shocked. Turner has a 4 year deal thru 2020, but talents like these guys are the exception. Large market teams will make a wondrous mockery of AAV during those FA years.
gomerhodge71
I don’t know about the Dodgers. I see the Angels, Yankees or some dark-horse team like Arizona getting in on Manny. I still haven’t ruled out the O’s locking him up, though.
Chefno2
I’d love to see Angels sign one of them. Would be awesome to see them paired with Trout. But their ownership puts me in doubt. Who knows though, perhaps the Brewers could sign both and surprise the world.
kbarr888
With Machado, Harper, McCutchen, Donaldson, and possibly Kershaw all becoming Free Agents in 2018, who gets the biggest deal? The Longest deal?
Will Arenado benefit from being the “Best Bat available in 2019”? Or will 2018 wipe out the “Big Money Available”, and the Big Market Teams will have less cash to spend?
Assume that Harper performs more like 2015 going forward, Machado stays healthy (knee issues in the past – not good for a 3B/SS), Kershaw doesn’t have a lingering issue with his back, Cutch shows that 2016 was a fluke, and Donaldson doesn’t start a decline (like McCutchen may have). It’s probably not fair to add Donaldson because he’s 31 now, and will be 33 that winter, so he won’t get a lengthy contract.
davidcoonce74
If Kershaw opts out and the back isn’t a long-term concern then he probably gets the biggest contract, followed by Harper, who will still be only 25 years old. Machado is starting to show signs that perhaps the knees are an issue already; he didn’t steal a single base in 2016. Still, all three of them will easily break 200 million.
McCutchen and Donaldson will be in the wrong side of 30 and even before 2016 Cutch was showing signs of decline in defense and base running. They’ll get Encarnacion money.
jakem59
Machado not stealing a base isn’t a sign his knees are going, besides 2015 he had never stolen more than 3 in a season. Bucky doesn’t tend to play much small ball.
davidcoonce74
Then why did he steal in 2015? Same manager, same personnel. Showalter said in an offseason interview the reason the O’s didn’t steal more in 2016 was because he didn’t have the players for it.
MB923
The longest deal would go to either Machado or Harper since they are younger than McCutchen and Donaldson. I say Harper gets longest deal and biggest deal. Followed my Machado, Kershaw, Donaldson and Cutch.
therealryan
Harper and Machado will get the biggest contracts and it probably won’t be close. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both of them go $300 . Kershaw’s AAV will most likely be in the same neighborhood, but he’ll be more like a 6-7 year deal compared to a 10 or maybe even 12 year deal for Harper and Machado. Cutch and Donaldson may both struggle to break $100 million due to their age and possibly production.
67redsox
Machado is a head case. I can’t imagine the Orioles signing him to a long-term deal. It’s just a matter of time before he snaps and his attitude ruins his career.
jakem59
The spat with Ventura was justified and the incident with A’s was so long ago and he’s been fine since. The throwing of the bat was obviously intentional and childish but the shouting match with Donaldson (who actually may be the biggest nutjob in the league) I’ve always seen as justified. Donaldson went very hard into his ribs on a play that, since little league, you’re taught to go to first with the ball. Donaldson went into him hard on purpose, his little smirk after verified that.