While the Brian Dozier saga has been a drawn out process, it seems that the Twins and Dodgers have agreed to table talks for the time being. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press adds a bit more on the talks that never gained enough traction to push a deal across the finish line, reporting that Los Angeles wasn’t willing to part with any of Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler or Brock Stewart alongside top prospect Jose De Leon. L.A.’s refusal to deal Alvarez or Buehler has been previously reported, though Stewart’s name hasn’t been previously mentioned as a sticking point. As Berardino also adds in his column, Twins GM Thad Levine discussed the talks on Go 96.3 FM, explaining that a hard deadline in talks was never set. However, he also suggested that the Twins won’t be initiating further talks with the Dodgers. “The reality is there’s going to be a point in time in this offseason where we may stop initiating calls but we’re always going to pick up the phone and hear teams out,” said Levine.
Dozier, too, appeared on the show (audio link) and called the trade drama an “eye-opening experience,” adding that it was interesting to “[dig] deeper into how other clubs value you, how the Twins value you, and that kind of thing.”
A few additional notes from the American League…
- The Twins were somewhat surprisingly connected to free agent Jose Bautista yesterday, but La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that the Twins don’t have interest in the slugger. The link between the Twins and Bautista was never characterized as a strong one, as MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger reported that the Twins touched base with Bautista’s agent. They may well have done so out of due diligence — chief baseball officer Derek Falvey said yesterday that the club has an idea of a price point at which they’d be interested in every remaining free agent — and simply found that Bautista is still seeking more than they’d care to commit. Of course, the 36-year-old Bautista doesn’t seem like a great on-paper fit for a team in the Twins’ situation anyhow, though a team with a protected first-round pick (like Minnesota) could perhaps gamble on punting its second pick in the hopes of flipping Bautista this July for greater value.
- There’s been no talk of a new contract between the Yankees and Masahiro Tanaka, general manager Brian Cashman tells Mike Mazzeo of the New York Daily News. Tanaka is, of course, technically under contract with the Yankees for another four years, but he also has an opt-out clause in his contract following the 2017 season, which will allow him to re-enter the free agent market if he performs well. “We have a significant contract with Masahiro Tanaka,” said Cashman. “…I think he pitched like a Cy Young award candidate last year, and I certainly hope he does so again this year. But at this point we’ve had no discussions internally to pursue any kind of extension.” Tanaka is just one of three Yankees starters that is set to hit free agency next winter, as lefty CC Sabathia and righty Michael Pineda will also see their contracts expire.
- Mazzeo adds that Cashman said he’s “not in active trade talks at all” regarding veteran Yankees like Brett Gardner, Chase Headley or any of his position players. That comes as little surprise, as Cashman has quite recently suggested that the roster, as currently constructed, is the likely roster that the team will take into Spring Training. While both seemed like on-paper trade candidates entering the offseason, neither Gardner nor Headley ever surfaced all that much on the rumor circuit.
- Tigers GM Al Avila appeared on 97.1 FM The Ticket in Detroit and discussed the team’s needs in center field, and CBS Detroit’s Will Burchfield has highlights from the interview. Avila acknowledged that the Tigers are keeping tabs on the free agent market, but also cautioned, “…if you look at what you’re going to get in production, you have to evaluate that compared to what you already have in-house.” Avila listed usual candidates Tyler Collins, Anthony Gose and JaCoby Jones as options and also twice mentioned non-roster invite Alex Presley without being prompted (per MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery, on Twitter).
- In a full column on Avila’s interview, Woodbery notes that the GM said he’s fielded calls about left-handed reliever Justin Wilson this winter but decided there’s more value to Wilson opening the year in the bullpen. Wilson, as Woodbery notes, could boost his value with improved results this season and become a more appealing trade chip this summer. As I noted when previewing the Tigers’ offseason in October, Wilson’s bottom-line results were rather pedestrian, but his secondary stats suggest that he should see a rebound from 2016’s lackluster 4.14 ERA.
My god if the dodgers wouldn’t include Stewart even than walk away because Dozier is easily worth them 2. I hope this ends up biting the dodgers in the butt for overvaluing their prospects. Smh
I’ll start by saying I’m not trying to attack you here or discuss the merits of Dozier because will end in a long drawn out process. That being said we’ve seen this market sort of devalue big hr lower obp type guys which his .326 career might suggest. Maybe the Dodgers FO just doesn’t value Dozier as highly as fans or maybe other GMs might. To be honest as a Dodger fan I’d like then to keep DeLeon at least until the deadline knowing the fragility of this staff. Just a thought.
I’m just saying that because we’ve seen them willing to dole out some big prospects they’ve dealt what 4 top 100 guys since dec of last year which is significant to note. Maybe they place more value on an option that’s not necessarily on the market yet.
I’ll admit – I’m surprised Stewart was untouchable (or at least, made untouchable in a deal that involved JDL), but you might have nailed the valuation disconnect. Interesting thoughts, /tiphat.
I don’t see Stewart as untouchable. I see DeLeon + Stewart as being too much. That’s about 12 years of starting pitching control for two of Dozier. Tesla has a name for that mode.
Yes, 12 years of control of two major league ready starters is quite a lot to give up. I’m still somewhat surprised about Stewart, given the lack of an average breaking ball (though it did show flashes). Then again, he’s still so new to pitching, they might have high hopes for it (along with wanting that starter with options available because fragile things break, at times). Guess it’s time to chill, until the next episode.
I’m just honestly thinking about it in terms of guys they were more than willing to trade; guys like Gordon and Peraza compared to guys they’ve traded for in Utley, Grandal, Barnes, and Thompson. (I view Kemp as an outlier because of his contract and injury history. The same with Reddick as he seemed to be included as a req for Hill.) And sure Dozier might be able to swipe bags, but not sure that factors into their thinking. Seems they are in the camp that doesn’t value running into potential outs. Teams they’ve built seem to revolve going 1st to 3rd instead of swiping bases. Then again that might be a product of their former manager. It also might be a product of Seager’s approach as to where he likes to attack pitchers instead of sitting to take pitches for runners in front of him.
They also most likely have their own metrics on Dozier’s defense that’s proprietary so we don’t know if they view him as above average defender and if that truly matters with some of the shifts.
So when all is said in done they are probably intrigued by his power and view him in mid to high 20 HR guy, but as a career below average average obp probably concerned about his K’s (added to a lineup with a healthy amount of K’s). Those are just my thoughts. Like I said I think Dozier is a great player, but just maybe not the perfect fit we think he is.
Remember when OBP was the original secret sauce of moneyball? Maybe it isn’t seen as being quite so important now, but it didn’t suddenly became irrelevant. I’ve been saying from the start that Dozier is a far from a perfect fit for the Dodgers needs because he’s another feast-or-famine hitter on a team already overloaded with them.
Checking my work, the total of control years for De Leon and Stewart is closer to 14.
I agree with you when you lay it out like that. But I would have to think that the Twins jump all over a deal with those 2 in it.
Major League ready is not the same as Major League proven.
Dozier is proven. He had a 5.9 WAR last year, good for 3rd best 2B (0.1 away from 2nd, with the best 2B at 6.7), and 13th highest WAR in the entire league. Over the last 4 years, Dozier has a 16.4 WAR, which ranks 23rd overall throughout the league in that timeframe. Also consider how cheap Dozier’s contract is over the next two years – $15 million. That’s a bargain for a player of his talent.
You’re assuming that JDL and Stewart will even be effective at the Major League level. It happens all the time – players blaze their way through the Minor Leagues, but when they get promoted to the Majors, they fall apart. There’s a reason why they use the term prospect. Besides, DeLeon looks to some to be injury prone. That tends to hurt a player’s value, especially when those injuries include a pitcher’s throwing shoulder.
You talk about these prospects as if they’re proven. They aren’t. I realize it’s a small sample size, but in the seven games Stewart has thrown for the Dodgers, he has a 5.79 ERA. JDL has a 6.35 in four games. Both have a negative WAR.
I know it’s easy to get attached to your team’s prospects. I do it too. But if you want proven talent, you need to give up unproven talent, and more of it.
If they were major league proven then you would never trade them both for 2 years of dozier. Please stop with this “prospects aren’t proven” garbage. Risk is included in their market value. That’s why you don’t see a ton of Low-A pitchers headlining deals.
pros·pect
präspekt/
noun
1.
the possibility or likelihood of some future event occurring.
Again. You assume they’re going to dominate the league. They have done no such thing.
Is your post supposed to be a response to mine? I can’t tell because the comment section on this site functions so poorly.
How does my post at all “assume they’re going to dominate the league”? I said that unproven player’s risk (the risk of not succeeding) is included in their market value. If you knew that they were going to dominate, you’d never trade 6 years of even 1 of them for 2 years of Brian Dozier.
This really isn’t that hard of a concept to grasp. Teams assign prospects and young mlb players (and probably all players for that matter) a value that includes their potential as well as the risk involved with said player. Saying that a player is unproven isn’t some great revelation, that’s why you can get 6 years of said player for 2 of Dozier.
Very well said Monson couldn’t agree more
Diamondbacks Mode?
Correct. These are not complicated concepts in the least, yet they seem to go right over a lot of heads.
On the specifics of this trade, it should be totally clear that the Twins’ asking price for Dozier is above the market, or somebody would have made them an acceptable offer by now. If you were trying to sell a car and nobody met your asking price, it would have to dawn on you that the problem is not the buyers, it’s how much you are asking.
Or you’re just not a very good salesman. Just kidding… sort of.
But, no, I agree. The Twins seem like they are trying hard to move Dozier and it’s telling if no teams meet their demands.
Is there any other teams that are even willing to make a bid anywhere near the Twins asking price?
Why would the Dodgers offer more if they have the best offer for Dozier.
Can only assume the Twins are just going to hang on to him and try and trade him during the season.
You also have to look at it from the twins point of view, fan favorite, consistent 25-30 home run proven guy, for 2 unproven #3-5 rotation arms … it should be a fair deal,, if not almost a bad deal for the twins
Prediction:
Dodgers circle back to kinsler and find out tigers aren’t rebuilding so they will want as much as we want for Dozier so he doesn’t happen for them and they check in and find rays aren’t making Forsythe available so dodgers agree to include Stewart and Deleon for Dozier finally
Orrr nothing happens and dodgers resign utley
Kinsler is less likely to happen more because of his no trade clause/extension demand than anything else.
How much does a 3-5 rotation arm cost on the market? How much would 12 years of that cost? It’s a lot more than 2 years of a Dozier would cost. 6 years of a 3-5 would likely also be more than a dozier. The risk associated with these pitchers is the only reason that there is even any conversation about moving these player(s) for him.
Good comment Visions_of_Blue_LA
Respectfully, all the fans/armchair experts that comment tend to overvalue players and get emotionally involved with why or why regarding a ballplayers worth.
Maybe the LA front office just doesn’t want to make this move. Further you comments regarding modern day metrics that we read about in every post may not match up with what LA’s front office, scouts, and experts have on Dozier.
Or maybe they just think he’s not the right fit.
The odds are Dozier is hitting .189 May 1st and the Twins are kicking themselves for not trading him.
He was that bad last year and look how he ended up. He has those trends. Even so he’ll likely still hold a fair trade value even with one year left on his deal if he repeats his numbers in 17.
I agree, Dodgers have so much minor league depth that they shouldn’t hesitate to trade for Dozier.
I’m shocked the dodgers are not pushing harder to get Dozier. he fits exactly what they need. I hope he stays in Minnesota and continues to rake with newfound motivation that the team the values him the highest is the team he is currently on. at 2/15 his contact is crazy good only increasing his value. think how good one of those hot steaks would be in the playoffs.
and think how bad it’d be if he was on a cold streak…. You don’t just get to look at the outcome that fits your narrative.
I’m just providing another possible outcome. all I see on these comments is what about his cold streaks all I’m saying is that a hot streak is just as likely.
also that the dodgers are missing a great opportunity to fill many needs. an upgrade over Utley at 2nd base, right handed hitter in his prime under a great contact for the next 2 years. but in the end we do not really know what the twins are asking for or what the dodgers are offering. I’m just saying that for a team that is so close to great things Dozier would be a great fit.
And we won’t know what his performance will look like in the playoffs until he is traded to another team
we also do not know how prospects are going to preform when they reach the majors. you cannot assume DeLeon is going to be a stud and then also assume Dozier is going to regress. I am not saying you are doing this just a common trend I have been seeing.
The common trend I am seeing is Dozier’s 2016 is his new normal not an outlier (for no stated reason) and DeLeon’s arm is just about to break off (for no stated reason). See how this works?
Blueskyla I guess you being an LA fan you are looking for negative comments regarding dodger players just like I am for twins players so we both just overlook the other comments. I still think Dozier would be a great add for your team.
Dozier would be okay but I can’t get too excited about him for two reasons. First, unless there’s a good reason to believe otherwise, it’s more likely than not his future output is more similar to his career line than the one he put up in just the one season. Second, he is not the contact hitter/OBP guy the Dodgers need so desperately at the top of the order.
I agree his skill set is very hard to place in the order. Good enough defense, good on the base paths and streaky but great power especially for 2nd baseman. but with that low ba and on base skills. I understand the concern and the reluctance to give up to much to acquire him. the things I like is he has gradually been getting better every year, he is in his prime, the contract is awesome and even his career norm is better than most 2nd baseman. but I agree it is hard to put a price on so I’m not surprised no deal has been made.
I get where the Dodgers are coming from here. Stewart and DeLeon are going to be counted on for depth this year in their rotation and in looking at how likely some of the pitchers ahead of them are to get injured those two are very likely to pitch significant innings this year. To trade both of them would be taking a big chance that all those guys would hold up which as I said doesn’t seem likely. That’s without even looking at the long term aspect of whether 12-14 years of Stewart and Deleon is worth 2 of Dozier.
I am so happy the Dodgers walked away from this. I rather they resign Utley.
So Jose De Leon is tradable but Brock Stewart isn’t? Why would Stewart not be on the trade block if it was reported back in early December that the Twins were interested in him? With pitchers like Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Vidal Nuno, Carlos Frias, Trevor Oaks, and Chase De Jong on the 40 man roster how badly would Stewart be missed?
I don’t think it’s a matter of either one not being trade able- it sounds like one wasn’t going to be included in a trade with the other, so they got to pick between Stewart and JDL, and not get both of them.
Because Stewart is more valuable than every one of those guys you just mentioned.
I’d like to hope that Alex Wood still had something to bring to the table, his awful mechanics aside he did show some promise a couple seasons ago
Starlin Castro for Alex Wood and Jordan Sheffield?
Why would anybody give up anything for Starlin Castro?
He’s a 1 WAR player who brings a 3 year/$34 million commitment.
It’s pretty simple as to why. Out of the group you mentioned Wood is really the only one that has the potential to be more than #5. Granted injuries may push him to the swingman/fireman role. Everyone else on the list beside DeJong is better suited for the pen. Even DeJong has seen some red flags in terms of HRs. Oaks is fitted perfectly for that gb specialists job the pen might require. Knowing the rotation is what it is it’s easy to see why is was one but not the other. It was DeLeon because they probably believed him headlining it would bring the cost of the rest of the prospect package down.
I rather roll the dice with Jose De Leon when his time is right and use the saving from his low salary on a position player.
Yeah I mean if it was just those two guys I think they would’ve at least been close to pulling the trigger but I won’t be upset with the Dodgers for holding on to young arms, especially after what happened with our rotation last year…hopefully DeLeon will end up helping out this year and making the conservative approach look like the right call
Wasn’t Justin Wilson the cajun cook from Louisiana that said “I garunteeeee”
I’ll be honest, my immediate response was shock that they wouldn’t include Stewart. He’s a good piece, but he’s not a world beater and I don’t see him being a MLB star.
That said, after thinking about it a bit more, its less likely that the Dodgers FO thinks he’s a star, and more likely that they don’t want to trade their top two MLB ready AAA pitchers. This FO values depth (probably more than any other organization), and packaging those two would leave us a little short with MLB ready pitchers should the injury bug hit (and given our rotation, that’s unfortunately rather likely to happen).
Neither one of them has to be a star to have real market value. All they have to be is serviceable bottom-rotation starters.
I’m not sure how that’s relevant here. Two BOR pitchers aren’t going to fetch Dozier, even serviceable ones.
I think they more than should, when you consider the cost of buying bottom-rotation pitchers on the free agent market. Both of these names are MLB-ready, or at worst very close, which maximizes the value of their team control,
Again I think you’re over stating Dozier’s value…just take a look at some of the big time trades that have been going on with good players…you’re going to get a good prospect or a few but rarely are you getting a blue chipper unless you’re a Chris Sale type…Brian Dozier while valuable and definitely a difference maker is not as valuable as someone who is going to bring in a bunch of can’t miss talent
It can be argued that Dozier has more value (5.9 WAR) than Sale.(5.1). Sale will impact about 33 games a year. Dozier will impact 150 + games both offensively as well as playing premiere defense in the middle infield. I don’t think DeLeon and Stewart is an unreasonable ask.
Whoever the Dodgers end up with to play second (and it probably won’t be Kinsler because of his no trade clause and the fact that budget conscience LA won’t want to take on a salary almost double Dozier) it will be a “settle” (Utley? Lowrie?).. But that’s their choice. It’s the kind of move (or non-move) that differentiates a team that’s really going for it (Red Sox) and one that is merely paying lip service to their fans.
I’ve been as critical as anyone (and a lot more than most) about this FO but even I don’t see it this way. No matter how much you talk up Dozier, his career line speaks for itself, as does his ability to meet the Dodgers’ roster needs. He is, at best, an imperfect fit, for reasons already explained. Considering the tall price tag the Twins are apparently placing on Dozier (and noting again that NO team is willing to pay it) I would rather see the Dodgers play out their hand on other options before coming back to this one.
This makes me laugh while I get what you’re saying in one sense it doesn’t make sense in the other. You bring up Bostons willingness to trade for Sale yet you fail to mention their refusal to trade Bogarts, Betts, Benitendi,Swihart, JBJ etc.. we can keep going. So as much as you want to criticize the dodgers for as you say lip service also notice that this teams outfield isn’t situated and the rotation is fragile. So who cares if they reup Utley or trade nothing for Lowrie. The simple fact is spring training isn’t the final trade deadline. Do we understand how bad the corner OF production was last year? Do people forget this team essentially won the division with 28 DL trips. They also started the season with Turner, Kendrick, Grandal, Ethier, Gonzo either on the DL or still recovering from significant injuries that’s not to mention the SP injuries. Oh yeah CC was also dealing with injuries starting in LF. So forgive me if I have complete skepticism that a move not made in the offseason will spell doom and gloom the entire season. Fact is at this point 2b might be the most important upgrade but mid season is truly might be LF. That being said I’m just laughing because if it was just lip service about wanting to compete they definitely would have let one or two of their high priced FAs go.
The Dodgers may be a bit gun shy in trading away prospects after essentially giving up Jharel Cotton for Rich Hill – who may be blessed with the curveball of Barry Zito, but cursed with the tender finger tips of Ismael Valdez. His career Year notwithstanding, Dozier’s OBP is less than the MLB average- and his 2016 power (all but five of his home runs were hit in ballparks ranked in the top 16 of easiest parks to go yard in) may not equate well in Chavez (ranked 23) , where the cool night air knocks fly balls down with impunity. Not to mention another 20 games in San Diego and San Francisco, the two toughest parks for a ball stitched by hand by a Costa Rican guy/woman making $2 an hour to leave.
Top 16, really? Couldn’t stick with upper half, just had to throw in that extra one?
Sorry, I meant to say all of his home runs were in the top 16. Five were at Progressive (Number 16).
They may be gun shy trading a young SP for a 2B because the last time I remember them doing that they traded Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields…
Personally given the dodgers reluctance to part with De Leon+ twins should look for calhoun, buehler, stewart, and lux to headline a Dozier deal. Personally im not sold on De Leon and the twins should look.for quality but more so quantity
Thats ridiculous lol
Hows it ridiculous? What ridiculous demands do you have? Urias De Leon and Seager? Clearly teams arent biting on Dozier otherwise the twins would have traded him by now. If you read the article said theyre unwilling to part with stewart alvarez buehler WITH de leon. Means theyll part with them if De Leon werent involved.
With De Leon the twins get him and one good decent maybe 2 others that are far down the prospect scale because De Leon is a top tier player.
Clearly the twins like stewart, buehler, alvarez as they want one or two plus de leon.
Given De Leons injury concerns im not sold on him long term as others in the list. And should the twins get De Leon and he flames out what then? They wasted the trade unless the other guy pans out.
Right now twins should put 55% emphasis on quantity and 45% on quality for Dozier.
Would you rather have De Leon and another good prospect, plus some low avg infielder in a ball
Or Buehler, Stewart/Alvarez, Lux, and Calhoun plus some high k guys with command issues you hope to fix. Pitching is very tricky to maintain long term.
De Leon doesnt pan out trading dozier was wasted.
The 2nd package lux calhoun stewart/alvarez buehler and some dark horse guys you will probably get more production from that group than De Leon.
As. Padre fan they held on to headley too long and asked way to much from the pirates and got lucky solarte panned out. Twins are doing the same thing. Holding onto Dozier too long and if he hits a bad time hes gonna drop in value where you wont even get the 2nd package.
All 4 of them huh? Brian Dozier is good. However he scares the crap outta me with his low Obp. I can’t help thinking Dodgers would be getting Dan Uggla reincarnated.
4 for 1 huh? Maybe they will throw in Kirby Puckett too.
lol?
So DeLeon isn’t enough but they need to throw in all of those other guys instead? Not seeing the logic here
I feel like the twins young front office may be too inexperienced. Dozier value never going to be higher and each day that passes, the contract becomes less valuable.
I don’t think Dozier’s value decreases from November-March.
Depends on whether he took truck washing lessons from Jeff Kent.
Or if he goes hunting with Todd Helton
The Twins want to restock their entire farm system from a Dozier trade and it’s just not going to happen.
7 years of control over a potential #3 starter? On a team with NO pitching? Take it and run.
No, they want two good prospects for two years control of a 6 WAR talent. Seems fair.
DeLeon has the potential to be a #3 (per scouts), though he also has durability concerns. I can understand MIN hesitancy to do a 1:1. I expect Dozier to mash again and they can move him part way through the season for probably an equitable deal. From LAD’s point of view, they should be concerned about pitching depth, though given DeLeon’s durability, I’m not sure he’s a reliable option.
Yes the Dodgers need a 2b however Dozier is not the answer. I would rather the grab a Forsythe type player as opposed to the .200 BA of Dozier. Especially for 2 young pitchers.
Dodgers will be in the race with or w/o a 2b. I would hold out and grab someone at the deadline or kick the tire on Brandon phillips and see if hed waive his No trade clause
Why is Gardner still on this team. He should have been traded last year and this year yet cashman keeps him around.
Should’ve traded him for C. Carrasco when they had the chance last year.
They did not have that chance last year lol
mobile.twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/66709517331535…
A tweet from 2015 that says the Indians are looking for an OF and might be willing to move a SP?
I’m sold!
When did they have a chance to trade Dozier for Carrasco never heard that one.
Gardner has neutral value (at best). Yes he can still play well in the field and has a decent bat, but he is costly and getting older. I wouldn’t expect much value for moving him, which is probably why Cashman still has him on the team.
Gardner is costly? He’s on a very team friendly contract with 2 years including this year remaining. Gardner is a steal based on his WAR. I get a kick out of these comments.
He has 2yrs ($12.5m & $11.5m) and a club option ($19m…lol) or a $2m buyout. So two years of Gardner costs $26m….or $13m/yr. He rocked out with a 92OPS+ last year. Yes he has a good glove, but as I said…that’ll be costly at $13m/yr. Look past WAR at the other metrics….not impressed. He’s no Heyward at $28m this year, but WAR doesn’t always tell the entire story.
On this site it seems to tell the entire story most of the time
If Im the Twins I take De Leon and a lotto type guy like Ibandel or Will Smith. Doziers value will never be higher.
Good thing you’re not the Twins. Wishing the Chase Utley Dodgers well as they fall short of a World Series yet again.
Dodgers view every prospect like they are mike trout
Opt out equals peace out!
I really hope the jays bring back Bautista, he’s not a perfect player anymore but he’s there best chance with the remaining guys to try and compete again in 2017. He can either provide protection behind Donaldson or bat ahead of him. Right now, you can pitch around JD for the big strikeout guys.
Yankees will probably let Tanaka won’t but will probably explore a trade around the deadline. If he’s pitching great as usual and can guarantee the team he’s traded to that he won’t opt out, he could bring in a great haul.
Really doubt the extend him after learning their lesson with Sabathia’s extension. Plus with his elbow and trying to reduce salary they have no problem letting another team deal with it.
If he’s pitching great as usual, why would he guarantee to a new team that he wouldn’t opt-out? He’d certainly beat 3/$67M with another top-flight season
Well Tanaka hasn’t thrown more then 200 innings in the majors yet. He threw 199 in 2016 and ended the season on the DL with a strained flexor mass in his right elbow. He could be considered more injury prone but he’s shown he’s not durable.
If he were to be traded to a team looking to make the playoffs and they end up making the playoffs he may run the risk of injury. He could finally top 200 in 2017 but what manager is going to trade alot of talent for something that hasn’t occurred? Tanaka may be doing himself a favor my not opting out and considering an extension.
He didn’t end the season on the DL. In fact he was willing to come in relief at end of season to get over 200 innings but the Yanks decided it made zero sense. Where do you get your information?
Tanaka’s elbow giving way during the season would be a nightmare scenario for the Yankees.
Minnesota is right to hold onto Dozier and tell the Dodgers to kick rocks if they can’t get what they want. There will be I injuries and he will be a commodity at the trade deadline and they will get a better deal then just JDL in a one for one swap. Good move by the Twins to not cave a one for one swap would heavily favor the Dodgers.
You are making a lot of assumptions here.
Except, by all of these accounts, it wasn’t a 1 for 1 swap – they disagreed over the other parts of the trade. If it was, say, JDL and Willie Calhoun, they should have taken it – that little SOB can hit.
Dodgers wouldn’t part with Calhoun either. He’s rated higher than all the others mentioned and can sit in the minors for 1.5yrs until Dozier would have been traded again then he takes over. As of right now Calhoun is the future, not Dozier. But it obviously makes sense on the Twins end to want him
I don’t know how much if at all Calhoun is ranked above the pitchers in question and I think that the Dodgers and a lot of other teams view him as a guy that eventually moves to the OF
What if the injury bug you speak of bites Dozier? Then it’s going to look bad that they didn’t make something happen and bring in a nice package for him when they had the chance
If i’m Cashman I’m holding off on my pitching situation. CC is done–even if he manages the same 3 BWAR season he had in 2016, isn’t going to be extended. I could see them doing a Mussina-like deal with him, but the temptation to cut $20+M is going to be too great. Pineda they might look to re-sign. Tanaka,no. If he has a great year, and opts out, I think Cashman will let him go, The elbow risk is too great. If Tanaka, whether it’s for injury reasons or preference, decides to stay, then the Yankees have him (and whatever insurance policy they have as well).
The Yankees could really have some nice deadline pieces if they have fallen out of contention…being able to get something out of CC at the deadline would be a plus but I could see Tanaka bringing in a nice haul for a team that needs to get over the hump…I would try to extend Pineda, he has good stuff and is young enough to turn things around…we will just have to wait and see how it goes but like I said the Yankees could really push themselves over the edge with all the payroll shedding and prospects they would be getting
Getting something out of CC at the deadline is wishful thinking. If CC can pitch like a #4, I think the Yankees would take that in a second. As for Tanaka…I expect him to have another solid season, but his elbow…no one knows. If I were Cashman I’d look to move him. Two of the three scenarios are a loss for the Yankees…he gets hurt, and he doesn’t opt out. He pitches poorly and he doesn’t opt out. He pitches well and opts out. Thank him for his contributions and trade him.
What do you think is the best/most likely plan for Pineda?
The Yankees need him to regain some of his old form because they don’t have the depth to hide his stinker games. Same for Severino…who I’m hoping does bounce back…or at least not get Joba’d.
I think he’s a hard guy to peg in regard to value. On some days he looks great and then it disappears. Any team looking to resign him will be worried about which Pineda they get. He is striking out more guys, but his walks are way up and his ERA has been trending in the wrong direction for the last couple/few seasons…I think near 5ERA by the end of last year.
Yeah…he has the ability…I guess we’ll have to wait and see what Pineda comes out of the gate this year like you said
The Twins should hold onto Dozier until the trade deadline and hope he has a great first half then get what they want for him,
Dozier had a career yr. in which he set career highs in BA, SLG, OPS, HR, & RBIs by LARGE margins. If he reverts back to his career norms (.240 w/ 20-25 HRs), he’s not going to be worth MIN’s asking price. Holding onto him & hoping that he has a repeat of his career yr. is a risky proposition.
It’s also a gamble that the Dodgers are trying to win a World Series with an inferior talent playing second base
The Dodgers have plenty of talent to be in the race come July 31. Then they can make a move to shore up any deficiencies.
Yeah I think we will be right up at the top around the deadline and then we will make a decision on what does and doesn’t need to be upgraded
It’s a gamble…and with all gambles it could pay off or set you back…only time will tell…I could also see the Dodgers deciding to up the ante a little bit once the market settles down a little bit more
I’m somewhat surprised that Stewart was the sticking point. I understand that you never want to overpay, but Stewart isn’t 1 of the Dodgers’ top 10 prospects, not even 1 of their top 4 pitching prospects.
That being said, I wonder if LA is trying to make sure they don’t buy high. Dozier is coming off a career year in which he set career highs in BA (by over 20 pts), SLG, OPS (both by over 100 pts), HRs, & RBIs. If Dozier reverts back to being the player he was before last season (a guy that will hit around .240 & hit about 20-25 HR), then he won’t be worth the price that MIN is asking for, esp. b/c particularly b/c his defense isn’t all that great…
This is pure speculation of me reading between the lines, I think the Dodgers value Stewart much more than the league does. At least I do. I think they see a mid-90s fastball with serious life, a slider that generated something like a 21% swinging strike rate in the majors last year, and a changeup that most scouts rate as a plus pitch. That is the makings of a pretty darn good major league pitcher. I’m wondering if Stewart is getting underrated because he wasn’t on most people’s prospect lists last year due to being a relatively unknown at the time. Also, his high ERA last year was mostly driven by his first 2 starts. The guy got blasted in those two starts (one being AT Col and the other was good outside of one bad inning) but he pitched to a 1.90 ERA in his 19 innings after that. If it only takes 2 starts for him to transition to the majors then I think all Dodgers fans would take that.
the twins were never shopping dozier from the start the FO said the need to be blown away to trade a star second baseman with a cheap contract and lets be honest Deleon is not a prospect that blows the twins way so there is no point to trade dozier to just trade him and get a at best mid rotation starter who is far from proven and has not even pitched 200 innings above double A in the last 2 years.
How many prospects pitch 200 innings above AA anyway?
Shhhh…the Dozier police are going to come get you!